Gallup tracker: Romney expands lead among likely voters, now up by four

posted at 4:41 pm on October 16, 2012 by Allahpundit

Literally no one doubts at this point, I think, that Romney’s post-debate surge is for real and not a bounce, so I’m not giving you these numbers to (re-)prove that point. I’m giving them to you to suggest that The One’s now in enough trouble that another bad performance tonight could be fatal. His margin of error in this campaign was always small, but after the Denver debacle shattered his aura of invincibility and with Romney poised to hit him with an avalanche of ad spending, it’s now basically down to zero. In fact, as I said yesterday, I’m not so sure he controls his own destiny anymore. If Romney handles the inevitable “47 percent” attack well tonight and does a solid job of relating to the questioners — not his strong suit, but he’s spent dozens of hours practicing now — his lead might open further still, even if O has an error-free debate and post-debate. The left’s not quite in panic mode yet, but if Romney shines tonight then it shall indeed be panic time in the West Wing bright and early tomorrow morning.

And you know what that means. Soon we might get to see those Bin Laden death photos after all.

Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.

How strong is Romney’s surge? Strong enough to make even his net favorable rating slightly higher than The One’s in RCP’s poll of polls, thus shattering the “likeability gap” that Team O worked so hard to build over the summer. That’s why Obama’s guaranteed to throw plenty of “47 percent” and “war on women” crap at him tonight. Painting Romney as a bad guy is a far more effective way to reach low-information voters than wonking out with him in a battle over economic plans.

Speaking of which, the key data from Gallup. The first two columns show Obama vs. McCain in 2008, the next two show Obama vs. Romney now, and the last two capture O’s advantage or disadvantage over McCain and Romney, respectively:

He’s lost points since 2008 among every single major demographic, but he’s down especially sharply with voters aged 30-49, postgrads, and college grads — essentially, the educated middle class (and upper class) in its prime career years. They didn’t lose as much ground economically from the recession as less educated voters did, if this Pew survey from 2010 is accurate, but it may be that their expectations for an Obama-driven economic turnaround were higher than anyone else’s. It didn’t happen, and now you’re seeing the disappointment of thwarted ambition start to register as a newly viable Romney emerges as a plausible alternative.

One more quote, this time from Mark Halperin, just to help you get your game face on for tonight’s debate:

Here’s why some Democrats are worried tonight. If Romney wins the three Southern battlegrounds (FL, NC, and VA) and OH, he is at 266 electoral votes. Leaving the other five battlegrounds unallocated, that means Obama would be at 237 and Romney would only need to win one of the remaining five states to get to 270+…

One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).

Follow the last link to see Halperin’s map with Ohio in Romney’s column. If it plays out this way, Romney would need any one of Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, or New Hampshire to clinch the presidency — and if you believe ARG, he’s already tied with O in New Hampshire. Via Breitbart TV, here’s Gibbs breaking with the usual pre-debate spin and promising an “exceptionally strong” performance tonight by Obama. And why not? If O doesn’t deliver precisely that, no post-game talking points will save him.


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That’s an awesome picture or of our next President. He must be looking at Ann – his eyes seem full of Love.

Who is John Galt on October 16, 2012 at 7:35 PM

FIFM.

Who is John Galt on October 16, 2012 at 7:37 PM

True but that’s not how the media will spin and report it. They’ll make him look like a strong resolute president.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 7:34 PM

True but shows he will lie even about dead Americans

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 7:37 PM

True but that’s not how the media will spin and report it. They’ll make him look like a strong resolute president.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Can’t spin a transcript when your present at the meeting…

Biden said they were “unaware” during his debate, game over…

MGardner on October 16, 2012 at 7:38 PM

True but shows he will lie even about dead Americans

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 7:37 PM

They’re voters too.

OTTO on October 16, 2012 at 7:39 PM

True but shows he will lie even about dead Americans

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 7:37 PM

And? Your point? I mean come on the media will cover for and enable him.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Can’t spin a transcript when your present at the meeting…

Biden said they were “unaware” during his debate, game over…

MGardner on October 16, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Great point! Again it opens up more worms and lies, then it’s festers for 3 weeks till Election Day. It’s a bad play on his part

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 7:41 PM

If zero admits his incompetence was responsible for the deaths of 4 Americans, his campaign is pretty much over. Why would he do such a thing?

My guess is he’s going to obfuscate and avoid and hope for time to run out.

tkyang99 on October 16, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Rick Santorum on Levin, atm.
He’s VERY excited and confident about PA numbers.

pambi on October 16, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Ugh, listening to Maggie Haberman sit in the tank for Obama on C-Span.

MechanicalBill on October 16, 2012 at 7:43 PM

If zero admits his incompetence was responsible for the deaths of 4 Americans, his campaign is pretty much over. Why would he do such a thing?

tkyang99 on October 16, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Because he knows his Democrat Media will effectively spin it for him.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Because he knows his Democrat Media will effectively spin it for him.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I don’t know how you spin deaths in a terrorist attack

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

OT: 4.6 earthquake in southern Maine.

Felt as far south as New Haven…

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Now, now dumpypantload, settle down.

Bmore on October 16, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Saw that earlier today.
Actually did a coffee spit-take!

OTTO on October 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Because he knows his Democrat Media will effectively spin it for him.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I don’t know how you spin deaths in a terrorist attack

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

“Bump in the road”?

And never forget, Reuters refused to call the original 9/11 attacks terrorism. So they have experience spinning such things.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Hey gumby, did you miss this little tidbit that was posted on DKos today?

On the other hand, the Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP poll says that Obama stretched out his lead by a point overnight, and now leads 47.3-45.7. Of course, TIPP was horrible in 2008, and in any case, you should never trust a poll that includes decimal points in the results.

tkyang99 on October 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Because he knows his Democrat Media will effectively spin it for him.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I don’t know how you spin deaths in a terrorist attack

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

“Bump in the road”?

And never forget, Reuters refused to call the original 9/11 attacks terrorism. So they have experience spinning such things.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Yea but 3 weeks out wont matter people already know what’s going on, and Biden saying they didn’t know as we’ll as the journal etc it just muddies their campaign even more.

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 7:47 PM

OT: 4.6 earthquake in southern Maine.

Felt as far south as New Haven…

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Wasn’t there a small quake last week ?

CW on October 16, 2012 at 7:48 PM

OTTO on October 16, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Maybe, Jesse the Chariot Driver can give dumbygumby a lift to My Progressive Little Ponyland where visions of sugar plums and delusions of grandeur/everything are “free” (paid for by the 1%) to run wild.

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 7:49 PM

OT: 4.6 earthquake in southern Maine.

Felt as far south as New Haven…

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Just felt a rumble here in central MA about 30 mins ago.
Was kind of eerie. Even the animals were skittish.

OTTO on October 16, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 7:49 PM

LOL

Think how much more fun it would be to toss them all under a chariot instead of a bus!

OTTO on October 16, 2012 at 7:52 PM

OT: 4.6 earthquake in southern Maine.

Felt as far south as New Haven…

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Just felt a rumble here in central MA about 30 mins ago.
Was kind of eerie. Even the animals were skittish.

OTTO on October 16, 2012 at 7:50 PM

..ahhhh, you east coast weenies! Get back to me when it hits 6!

The War Planner on October 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Damn! I’m always late!

The place in Texas we really need to worry about is Lubbock. Lots of unstable yankee transplants there.

cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 5:42 PM

BZZZZZT! Don’t know wheredehell you get your info from…….
We have a very strong police presence and an extremely strong no nonsense mayor, along with a no nonsense District Attorney.

(all the unstable yankee transplants are lesbians working for the local newspaper. ಠ_ಠ )

avagreen on October 16, 2012 at 7:58 PM

..ahhhh, you east coast weenies! Get back to me when it hits 6!

The War Planner on October 16, 2012 at 7:53 PM

When the west coast slides into the Pacific your welcome to come stay awhile with us weenies.

OTTO on October 16, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Indeed, where they now have varying percentages of passage

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 4:52 PM

This is part of many IEPs (Individualized Education Plan).
They actually can lower the % it takes for a kid to earn a letter grade.
They then get the same diploma everybody else has, but did not have to earn it like they did.
And I notice the number of special ed. cases skyrocketing for things like being ‘Emotionally Disabled’.
These are Democrat voters in the making.

Badger40 on October 16, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Hey gumby, did you miss this little tidbit that was posted on DKos today?

“The Daily Kos is a Republican site funded by the Koch-sucker Brothers. It can’t stand the fact that there is a black man living in the White House. Catch up, will ya?”

- dumbygumbypokey, Assistant Press Secretary, Ministry of Truth

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 8:00 PM

When the west coast slides into the Pacific your welcome to come stay awhile with us weenies.

OTTO on October 16, 2012 at 7:59 PM

..hell, that’s the best offer I’ve had all year. If it’d rid us of Governor Moonbeam and all the lib trash, I’d gladly winter over in MA or NH.

The War Planner on October 16, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I got your Badger40 right here.

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 8:04 PM

These are Democrat voters in the making.

Badger40 on October 16, 2012 at 7:59 PM

C’est la vie

OTTO on October 16, 2012 at 8:08 PM

OOOH YEA

blatantblue on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

We want pics in the Cave!

Badger40 on October 16, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Michelle Obama: ‘Barack doesn’t have a big ego’…

And, you don’t have a big arse, luv.

**eyeroll**

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 8:09 PM

And, you don’t have a big arse, luv.

**eyeroll**

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Heh. Luv.

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 8:10 PM

The place in Texas we really need to worry about is Lubbock. Lots of unstable yankee transplants there.

cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 5:42 PM

ALT and her hubbie are there, should be no problems. no /

Who is John Galt on October 16, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Mitt: be your assertive self, enjoy the performance, remain in command

If Mitt can win this debate, lots of downballot Dems will flee Obama, and we can move in for the kill

matthew8787 on October 16, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Then and Now

wargamer6 on October 16, 2012 at 8:21 PM

“If Mitt can win this debate, lots of downballot Dems will flee Obama, and we can move in for the kill

matthew8787 on October 16, 2012 at 8:17 PM”

Not going to happen. Enjoy the debate!

Can’t wait for the snap polls!!!

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 8:23 PM

The place in Texas we really need to worry about is Lubbock. Lots of unstable yankee transplants there.

cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 5:42 PM

ALT and her hubbie are there, should be no problems. no /

Who is John Galt on October 16, 2012 at 8:15 PM

REPEAT

Damn! I’m always late!

The place in Texas we really need to worry about is Lubbock. Lots of unstable yankee transplants there.
cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 5:42 PM

BZZZZZT! Don’t know wheredehell you get your info from…….
We have a very strong police presence and an extremely strong no nonsense mayor, along with a no nonsense District Attorney.

(all the unstable yankee transplants are lesbians working for the local newspaper. ಠ_ಠ )

avagreen on October 16, 2012 at 7:58 PM

avagreen on October 16, 2012 at 8:26 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Need new wanking material? Sick, bro.

wargamer6 on October 16, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Can’t wait for the snap polls!!!

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Me either!

What’s a snap poll?

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Good luck, Mitt. Just remember you’re the CEO of a multi-billion dollar company, the other guy is a community organizer.

tkyang99 on October 16, 2012 at 8:32 PM

I’ve asked before, why do you people feed it????? Why are you poking it with a stick instead of just ignoring it? Let it crawl back under it’s bridge, already!

Chewy the Lab on October 16, 2012 at 6:28 PM

.
It is a codependent relationship situation.

The troll desperately needs adult attention.

People responding to the troll claim they are just countering lies with truth.

It is just very sad we have to be subjected to it when the Hot Air staff could just “deactivate” the troll’s account till after the election for repetitive, intentionally dishonest statements.

PolAgnostic on October 16, 2012 at 8:37 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012

…D I A H R R E A…!!!

KOOLAID2 on October 16, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Gumbo watching his man on TV
Hand lotion and tissues hardest hit.

Aviator on October 16, 2012 at 8:42 PM

…It is just very sad we have to be subjected to it when the Hot Air staff could just “deactivate” the troll’s account till after the election for repetitive, intentionally dishonest statements.

PolAgnostic on October 16, 2012 at 8:37 PM

What would be HotAir’s incentive to pull the plug on a troll that draws comments? We’ve been asking for an “ignore” button since 2006. Once again, what would be HA’s incentive? Making commentors happy? Obviously that hasn’t appealed to them in 6 years.

NightmareOnKStreet on October 16, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Snap polls are the instant polls taken after the debate ends. ANd unless somebody tranks, they will mean nothing.

Zomcon JEM on October 16, 2012 at 9:39 PM

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