Gallup tracker: Romney expands lead among likely voters, now up by four

posted at 4:41 pm on October 16, 2012 by Allahpundit

Literally no one doubts at this point, I think, that Romney’s post-debate surge is for real and not a bounce, so I’m not giving you these numbers to (re-)prove that point. I’m giving them to you to suggest that The One’s now in enough trouble that another bad performance tonight could be fatal. His margin of error in this campaign was always small, but after the Denver debacle shattered his aura of invincibility and with Romney poised to hit him with an avalanche of ad spending, it’s now basically down to zero. In fact, as I said yesterday, I’m not so sure he controls his own destiny anymore. If Romney handles the inevitable “47 percent” attack well tonight and does a solid job of relating to the questioners — not his strong suit, but he’s spent dozens of hours practicing now — his lead might open further still, even if O has an error-free debate and post-debate. The left’s not quite in panic mode yet, but if Romney shines tonight then it shall indeed be panic time in the West Wing bright and early tomorrow morning.

And you know what that means. Soon we might get to see those Bin Laden death photos after all.

Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.

How strong is Romney’s surge? Strong enough to make even his net favorable rating slightly higher than The One’s in RCP’s poll of polls, thus shattering the “likeability gap” that Team O worked so hard to build over the summer. That’s why Obama’s guaranteed to throw plenty of “47 percent” and “war on women” crap at him tonight. Painting Romney as a bad guy is a far more effective way to reach low-information voters than wonking out with him in a battle over economic plans.

Speaking of which, the key data from Gallup. The first two columns show Obama vs. McCain in 2008, the next two show Obama vs. Romney now, and the last two capture O’s advantage or disadvantage over McCain and Romney, respectively:

He’s lost points since 2008 among every single major demographic, but he’s down especially sharply with voters aged 30-49, postgrads, and college grads — essentially, the educated middle class (and upper class) in its prime career years. They didn’t lose as much ground economically from the recession as less educated voters did, if this Pew survey from 2010 is accurate, but it may be that their expectations for an Obama-driven economic turnaround were higher than anyone else’s. It didn’t happen, and now you’re seeing the disappointment of thwarted ambition start to register as a newly viable Romney emerges as a plausible alternative.

One more quote, this time from Mark Halperin, just to help you get your game face on for tonight’s debate:

Here’s why some Democrats are worried tonight. If Romney wins the three Southern battlegrounds (FL, NC, and VA) and OH, he is at 266 electoral votes. Leaving the other five battlegrounds unallocated, that means Obama would be at 237 and Romney would only need to win one of the remaining five states to get to 270+…

One senior Democratic official expressed real concern tonight unlike I have heard before about Ohio potentially slipping away from Obama (the state has been trending Republican in statewide races, Rob Portman has become a force, religious and gun groups are flooding the state with voter contacts, two of Romney’s top strategists have recently won a statewide race there, etc).

Follow the last link to see Halperin’s map with Ohio in Romney’s column. If it plays out this way, Romney would need any one of Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, or New Hampshire to clinch the presidency — and if you believe ARG, he’s already tied with O in New Hampshire. Via Breitbart TV, here’s Gibbs breaking with the usual pre-debate spin and promising an “exceptionally strong” performance tonight by Obama. And why not? If O doesn’t deliver precisely that, no post-game talking points will save him.


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NIce to see, still vote.

rob verdi on October 16, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Call from Axelrod on line 1 at Gallup(using his codename Gumby)

gsherin on October 16, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Obama now can’t even get the full 47%.

Oil Can on October 16, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Bye

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Obama is so “My Space”

J_Crater on October 16, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Call from Axelrod on line 1 at Gallup(using his codename Gumby)

gsherin on October 16, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Stop this thread this is a winner

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Christmas In October.

brewcrew67 on October 16, 2012 at 4:45 PM

If Obama breathes tonight the media will declare him the “come back kid”.

May they all spontaneously combust. I can’t wait for Obama to lose so I can laugh at the media. He is the incestual child of them and the DNC, and look at the evidence.

They own him. He’s theirs.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Here’s why some Democrats are worried tonight. If Romney wins the three Southern battlegrounds (FL, NC, and VA) and OH, he is at 266 electoral votes. Leaving the other five battlegrounds unallocated, that means Obama would be at 237 and Romney would only need to win one of the remaining five states to get to 270+…

That sounds like the 3,2,1 strategy Rove has been talking about.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/15/rove_trippi_on_latest_electoral_map_debate_was_a_gamechanger.html

rob verdi on October 16, 2012 at 4:45 PM

well you know the Chines Poll had Obama up by 76 points

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Romney is going to have the opportunity to ask O’Bungler some pretty tough questions tonight, the question is…. Will he… A123 questions ahoy….

Barack Obama and the Green Revolution Losers…

SWalker on October 16, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Allah, this administration has never had anything run out of the West Wing, that would imply it is non-political. Chicago has always been home to this administration.

Tater Salad on October 16, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Literally no one doubts at this point, I think, that Romney’s post-debate surge is for real and not a bounce

Literally no one? I beg to differ.

Sincerely,
Stephanie Cutter

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 4:46 PM

I’ll save gumby and myself the time and pre-post my response to him changing the subject as he did in the DailyKOS thread:

We Ask America, LOL!

And Ras not showing much movement, if any.

And no national movement on Ras, either.

Gonna be funny when no bounce is seen anywhere, and maybe things actually turn more towards Obama due to the jobs numbers.

So, how about it Dell?

Romney wins and I leave. Obama wins and you leave?

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Two new We Ask America polls…

Colorado
Romney 48
Obama 47

Sample is R+1

Iowa
Obama 49
Romney 46

Sample is D+3

gumbyandpokey on October 16, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Crazy Joe’s Grampa Jackass act really goosed the ticket didn’t it?

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 16, 2012 at 4:47 PM

This was precious, from the HA headlines

’90 Days’ and No Good Reasons

The incoherence, petulance, and desperation of “90 Days” documents the decline of a presidential cult.

Nothing can be more schadenfreudig than to watch this emptyness be exposed in full view. It’s so sad that so many people fell for it.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Romney at 50%, poll trolls like gumbypoked are butt hurting.

bayview on October 16, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Mr Obama, Is Bhegazi Clinton’s fault? are you going to ask for her resignation or fire her? How come you didnt know?

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:47 PM

The smell of panic mixed with burning leaves on a cool Autum night fills the soul with joy…

Seven Percent Solution on October 16, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Crazy Joe’s Grampa Jackass act really goosed the ticket didn’t it?

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 16, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Shhhh, yep, looks like it :)

jimver on October 16, 2012 at 4:48 PM

If Romney does well, what this will mean is that a lot of innocent Libyans will die between now and the third debate. Barry will “need” to prove he’s more manly than Hillary (and try to defuse his Libyan screwups) by going after the Libyan bad guys, and because he only does it by dropping bombs, there will be collateral deaths.

FiveG on October 16, 2012 at 4:49 PM

“Gallup, like PPP, is a Republican-leaning polling outfit funded by the Koch-sucking Brothers. This is even more so since Obama and Axelrod had Holder sue them. Gallup is intentionally doctoring the sample by adding more African-Americans and Hispanics, which is always going to lead to a more Romney favourable result.

Romney is NOT leading Obama by 4 nationally. He’s NOT leading in the swing states. Romney is NOT gaining in Pennsylvania. There will NOT be a landslide in ANY bitterclinger county in America much less the overwhelming majority.

Obama IS leading in Texas, Utah, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas by more than 20 points in each state.

You people are D-E-L-U-S-I-O-N-A-L!

By the way, did you see the new poll from Kim Jong-un POLLytech University? It has Obama up by 63 points nationally with a R +74. Oh, and the Castro-Guevara-Chavez Battleground Poll of the Swing States has Obama wiping Romney’s blood off the floor with a 75 point lead and has a sample of 2/3,798/468 (D/R/I).

You wankers had better catch up! Even true cons are voting for my Dear Leader!”

– dumbygumbyandpokey, Assistant Press Secretary, Ministry of Truth

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Romney needs to be lights out tonight. Put this horse out of its misery and end it. The 3rd Debate will not matter

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:49 PM

but after the Denver debacle shattered his aura of invincibility

How well said!!!

How could the land have so many idiots?

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Even I’ll pray that Romney closes the deal tonight.

lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 4:50 PM

How could the land have so many idiots?

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Public School

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:50 PM

If Romney does well, what this will mean is that a lot of innocent Libyans will die between now and the third debate. Barry will “need” to prove he’s more manly than Hillary (and try to defuse his Libyan screwups) by going after the Libyan bad guys, and because he only does it by dropping bombs, there will be collateral deaths.

FiveG on October 16, 2012 at 4:49 PM

There are no innocent Muslims, that is Islamic doctrine, their are only apostates and those who gloriously die while engaging in Jihad…

SWalker on October 16, 2012 at 4:50 PM

The 3rd Debate will not matter

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Respectfully, this is not true. It will be a very significant debate, you watch. I look forward to that one more than any other.

May Benghazi destroy Obama/Hillary/Rice/Biden. It w/b ironic and the best Schadenfreude on Earth.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 4:51 PM

NIce to see, still vote.

rob verdi on October 16, 2012 at 4:43 PM

And don’t forget to take your family and a couple of friends.

kim roy on October 16, 2012 at 4:51 PM

NIce to see, still vote.

rob verdi on October 16, 2012 at 4:43 PM

And don’t forget to take your family and a couple of friends.

kim roy on October 16, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Vote Early Vote Often

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Public School

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Indeed, where they now have varying percentages of passage, for minorities, women and other groups (the penultimate form of discrimination), and they eliminate homework.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Vote Early Vote Often

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Obama approved message… And don’t forget to tell the exit pollsters that you voted for Obama…

SWalker on October 16, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Beware of Hubris.

I hope that the pro-Romney trend continues through election day.

Old Fritz on October 16, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Oh my. 3 weeks left and they cannot pass fast enough.

Valkyriepundit on October 16, 2012 at 4:53 PM

If he falls apart tonight, can airstrikes be far behind?

Operation Canine Vibrator
Knockout Prime Time Presidential Address to the Nation

spiritof61 on October 16, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Romney needs to be lights out tonight. Put this horse out of its misery and end it. The 3rd Debate will not matter

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:49 PM

That’s my hope as well. Don’t rest on your laurels. I’ve noticed at times that Mitt will play it safe and passive(the “he’s a nice guy, but…” strategery comes to mind) when he should’ve done the exact opposite. I hope his advisers are telling him to go for the kill tonight.

Doughboy on October 16, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Vote Early Vote Often

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Obama approved message… And don’t forget to tell the exit pollsters that you voted for Obama…

SWalker on October 16, 2012 at 4:53 PM

HAHA Yea

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:54 PM

The smell of panic mixed with burning leaves on a cool Autum night fills the soul with joy…

Seven Percent Solution on October 16, 2012 at 4:47 PM

I’m waiting for the tears, garment rending and lamentations of their women.

But patience. It’s not over yet. There’s still the kitchen sink to throw. I wonder what garbage they will toss out there in the next week or so.

kim roy on October 16, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I feel like a child waiting for Christmas.

Valkyriepundit on October 16, 2012 at 4:54 PM

NOAA Long Range Forecast :

pokedinthebumby

M240H on October 16, 2012 at 4:55 PM

lorien1973 on October 16, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Amen! I have been talking to God about this and if He thinks Mitt is to help the US, it will be done.

But we gotta do our part and vote!
L

letget on October 16, 2012 at 4:55 PM

What looks really bad here is that Romney is at 50 percent and the incumbent isn’t and we’ve only got 3 weeks to go. Obama is never getting to 50 percent.

Corporal Tunnel on October 16, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I’m waiting for the tears, garment rending and lamentations of their women Andrew Sullivan.

kim roy on October 16, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Fify!

Valkyriepundit on October 16, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Where are the ABR’s? They seem to be missing.

JPeterman on October 16, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Here’s the ad the ROmney team should run nonstop in battleground states:

President Romney President Romney President Romney President Romney

Zombie on October 16, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Literally no one doubts at this point, I think, that Romney’s post-debate surge is for real and not a bounce

You forget about our resident poll troll, gumby.

ShadowsPawn on October 16, 2012 at 4:57 PM

This has been up for some time.

http://www.unskewedpolls.com/qstarnews_swingstates_poll_02_2012.cfm

avagreen on October 16, 2012 at 4:57 PM

CLOSE THE SALE!!!

blatantblue on October 16, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Have we not been pointing this out all year?

Romney will flip: IN, NC, FL, VA, OH

and one or more of:

NH, WI, IA, CO, NV

for the win.

Missy on October 16, 2012 at 4:58 PM

And you know what that means. Soon we might get to see those Bin Laden death photos after all.

I am afraid that it might mean something different…and far worse.

The question I wish someone would ask David Axelrod, or Pres. Obama himself, would be something like the following:

“In light of Pres. Obama’s/your first debate, do you find yourself wishing that Romney had a sealed divorce file somewhere you could get leaked to the media?”

Of course no one will ask that, but it brings to mind the sleazy depths to which the Obama/Axelrod/Emmanuel/Gibbs was…and is…prepared to sink.

There is no sealed divorce file on the Romneys, but what is to prevent the Obama campaign, in its desperation, to create something out of whole cloth? Who will expose that? Protect against that? The media? Obviously not. I remember the sleazy New York Times piece insinuating a McCain affair with a lobbyist last election. It was published in the “paper of record”, the “great” NY Times and repeated elsewhere.

I am very much afraid they will create something in the last few days of the campaign if things do not turn around for them.

Blaise on October 16, 2012 at 4:58 PM

I feel like a child waiting for Christmas.

Valkyriepundit on October 16, 2012 at 4:54 PM

We need an advent calendar – election version.

gophergirl on October 16, 2012 at 4:58 PM

I’m not so sure he controls his own destiny anymore.

He never did…control it…he’s a puppet.

Painting Romney as a bad guy is a far more effective way to reach low-information voters than wonking out with him in a battle over economic plans.

Or “knuckleheads” as Michelle Obama said yesterday

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 4:58 PM

The Democrats and the MSM will be DESPERATE to try and spin this in Obama’s favor REGARDLESS of his debate performance.

Look at the attempt by Democrats and the MSM to make Biden’s rudeness and maniacal laughter and giggling seem, not only normal, but effective and a reasonable debate ‘tactic’.

Obama will talk over Romney and the moderator. Romney will, essentially, be debating BOTH Obama and the moderator, much as Ryan was in the position of debating both Biden and Radditz . Crowley will seek to hand Obama softball questions, while handing Romney the most challenging questions she can get out of that audience of hand selected ‘undecided’ voters, and she will keep hammering at Romney herself, even after he has answered the question.

I suspect that Crowley will also slip in a totally absurd question, like ‘What’s your favorite color? ‘ or ‘What’s your wife’s horses name?’ or some other inanity, to throw Romney off balance at a crucial point in the debate.

Meanwhile, Obama will snark and snipe, call Romney a liar as often as possible, while offering no viable proof to back up his accusations. Obama will seek to use up as much time as possible and will employ his monotonous speaking style in order to do exactly that, and when time is called, he’ll raise his voice and continue talking anyway. He’ll be looking to slip in a lot of pre fabricated one liners, written by his speech writers and handler’s, using key phrases Romney will use while discussing policy as triggers, in order to interject them, interrupting to do so.

All Romney has to do is remain calm, be substantive, confident, speak directly to the cameras and the audience, remain on topic, and he’ll be fine in this debate.

How many times, do you suppose, his handler’s showed Obama the film of that first debate?

thatsafactjack on October 16, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Romney is winning Catholics.

(Only 51-49, but still impressive.)

Abby Adams on October 16, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Andrew Sullivan will pitch a hissy fit.

Rachel Maddow will punch a hole in the wall.

Role Reversals.

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Man, these threads. If it ain’t Gumbo, it’s the Lanceman.

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Mitt can “close the sale” tonight just by being himself like he was in the first debate. There’s nothing Obama can do.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 4:59 PM

What looks really bad here is that Romney is at 50 percent and the incumbent isn’t and we’ve only got 3 weeks to go. Obama is never getting to 50 percent.

Corporal Tunnel on October 16, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Or viewed another way, Obama is at 47%, the Mendoza Line for incumbents.

A home run tonight *might* save him. But I doubt it.

Missy on October 16, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Where are the ABR’s? They seem to be missing.

JPeterman on October 16, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Especially Pragmatic and his Johnny-One-Note theme.

Bitter Clinger on October 16, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Don’t celebrate until Nov. 6, and then only briefly.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 5:01 PM

What I fear, there will be those who will go he!! bent to do what they can IF bho is not re-elected? These could make the US a living nightmare if this happens? Just my thoughts!
L

letget on October 16, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Don’t celebrate until Nov. 6, and then only briefly.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Yes, beware the lame ducks.

SouthernGent on October 16, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I’m expecting that Mitt will give a performance equal to the first debate. It will be interesting to see how Scooter will react. as shown, he does not handle questioning very well.

kingsjester on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Romney needs to be lights out tonight. Put this horse out of its misery and end it. The 3rd Debate will not matter

Conservative4ev on October 16, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Romney just needs a draw tonight. The 3rd debate is foreign policy, and that subject has Obama on his heels. There’s not enough time for him to reestablish himself as the foreign policy president before the final debate, unless he starts bombing Iran. Even if that happens, he’ll be on thin ice.

joejm65 on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Don’t celebrate until Nov. 6, and then only briefly.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 5:01 PM

If King Barry loses, I fear what comes next.

JPeterman on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

I’m havin some pals over tonight to watch

we are all from Long Island, but live in NYC, and we’re all conservative. we laugh at how there could be all these conservatives in NYC together.

im making a badass beef sausage mushroom raw garlic vodka sauce

and having some nice Viognier and some reds

and for starters we are having taaromasalaata and skordalia

OOOH YEA

blatantblue on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

All polls are with margin of cheating.

portlandon on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Obama:

“Oh No — I’m Melting!” ala the witch in “The Wizard of Oz.”

3dpuzzman on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Mitt can “close the sale” tonight just by being himself like he was in the first debate. There’s nothing Obama can do.

bgibbs1000 on October 16, 2012 at 4:59 PM

The moderator and Obama have trained to counter what romney did in the first debate, he needs something more to thwart them.

the_nile on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

and if you believe ARG, he’s already tied with O in New Hampshire.

The new Suffolk out today also has NH a tie. Just 2 weeks agom the UNH/WMUR “poll” had O’bamna winning New Hampshire by 15

NH went for the Dem for Prez in 2004 and 2008, but we fired most of our state Democrats in 2010.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

If King Barry loses, I fear what comes next.

JPeterman on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

There is a long time between November 06 & January 20th.

Obama will be at his most dangerous during this time.

portlandon on October 16, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Man, these threads. If it ain’t Gumbo, it’s the Lanceman.

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Sorry, hon, he is just our “Chew-Toy of the Month™.”

He is the RuPaul of Polling Phun. Over-the-top. Too much fun to ignore. He takes polls much more seriously than some of the rest of us do.

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Don’t celebrate until Nov. 6, and then only briefly.

Schadenfreude on October 16, 2012 at 5:01 PM

If they call the election early, then it might be OK to celebrate on the 6th. Otherwise, prudence would dictate waiting until the early hours of the 7th.

HTL on October 16, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Romney will do well, 0 will win tonight according to his darlings in the media. He’s back! Will be the talking point. 0 will have regained his mojo and will coast till the next debate. Rinse and repeat. 0 will ultimately lose the election, the media will say he won by doing things his way. He is the greatest leader of our time. Romney will quietly assume control of the Nation January 20th, be blamed for everything and end up hated by all. Rinse and repeat.

Bmore on October 16, 2012 at 5:06 PM

I am so excited to cast a ballot. Wild horses could not drag me away. I dream of seeing moving vans in front of the white house.

bopbottle on October 16, 2012 at 5:06 PM

There is a long time between November 06 & January 20th.

Obama will be at his most dangerous during this time.

portlandon on October 16, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Well I can see the King finally keeping his promise to close Gitmo………..and letting all the prisoners go free.

JPeterman on October 16, 2012 at 5:06 PM

There is a long time between November 06 & January 20th.

Obama will be at his most dangerous during this time.

portlandon on October 16, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Step 1: He’ll let ALL the Bush tax rates expire. Middle class gets another shovel-full of dirt thrown on them.

Bitter Clinger on October 16, 2012 at 5:07 PM

There is no sealed divorce file on the Romneys, but what is to prevent the Obama campaign, in its desperation, to create something out of whole cloth? Who will expose that? Protect against that? The media? Obviously not. I remember the sleazy New York Times piece insinuating a McCain affair with a lobbyist last election. It was published in the “paper of record”, the “great” NY Times and repeated elsewhere.

I am very much afraid they will create something in the last few days of the campaign if things do not turn around for them.

Blaise on October 16, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Yeah, me too. Where can you go from accusing someone of being a tax cheat and causing some woman’s death?

No doubt we’ll find out soon enough. These will be desperate people and they have a large microphone from their minions in the LSM.

kim roy on October 16, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Soon we might get to see those Bin Laden death photos after all.

They’ll need something better than that to move the numbers in Barry’s direction. The people who were impressed by Barry scaling down that rope from the helicopter and personally capping bin Laden in his Pakistan compound were already firmly in the Barry column. Everybody else is over it already. Usama is so last year.

FiveG is more on target (so to speak). Barry’s team has already been floating some rumors about a planned “secret” attack. If things go badly for him tonight, anyone who owns a pill (or was it milk?) factory in Libya better plan on being out of town until after the 6th.

AZCoyote on October 16, 2012 at 5:07 PM

The new Suffolk out today also has NH a tie. Just 2 weeks agom the UNH/WMUR “poll” had O’bamna winning New Hampshire by 15

NH went for the Dem for Prez in 2004 and 2008, but we fired most of our state Democrats in 2010.

Del Dolemonte on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

I saw that and am liking it very much!

Still don’t see many Obama signs in NH, but plenty of Romney especially in small buisness windows>

D-fusit on October 16, 2012 at 5:07 PM

What I fear, there will be those who will go he!! bent to do what they can IF bho is not re-elected? These could make the US a living nightmare if this happens? Just my thoughts!
L

letget on October 16, 2012 at 5:02 PM

If people riot, they’ll do what they always do – destroy their neighborhoods and smash the windows of businesses and steal TV sets. America won’t be at risk, but a bunch of nice people who live in bad areas might suffer needlessly. Riots here are generally urban events. Everyone else will be watching it on TV, safe and sound.

joejm65 on October 16, 2012 at 5:07 PM

If King Barry loses, I fear what comes next.

JPeterman on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Yep, my wife even wants to practice.

It just so happens to be “ladies night” at the range.

I’ve been wanting her to try out some of the new compact pistols.

cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Obama gets the all-important Honey Boo Boo endorsement!

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/honey-boo-boo-endorses-obama_654673.html

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 5:08 PM

I won’t be watching the debate tonight….I can’t miss Justin Verlander and the Tigers go 3 to Zip against the Pin Striped team.

I am thinking of DVR-ing the debate in case anything bizarre happens….Like perhaps President Obama trips over his feat and lands head first into Candy Crowley.

Varchild on October 16, 2012 at 5:08 PM

portlandon on October 16, 2012 at 5:04 PM

I can not even imagine what bho/mo/jarrett will do to our nation if bho isn’t re-elected before they get the boot!
L

letget on October 16, 2012 at 5:09 PM

blatantblue on October 16, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Nice. I too live in a very blue place and know what it’s like – the fellowship of a handful of friends who are also closet conservatives is very special, especially at important times like this. I have a similar election night party planned. ;)

Hope both are great nights.

Missy on October 16, 2012 at 5:10 PM

VIRGINIA

Romney 54
Obama 43

Kimball Political Consulting

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 5:10 PM

The legacy media has already written the stories on what a masterful job he did…

d1carter on October 16, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Obama gets the all-important Honey Boo Boo endorsement!

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/honey-boo-boo-endorses-obama_654673.html

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Heh – Weekly Standard found this clip so I could go to bed and miss this mark of the decline of Western civilization.

22044 on October 16, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Sorry, hon, he is just our “Chew-Toy of the Month™.”

Resist We Much on October 16, 2012 at 5:05 PM

YOU are from jolly old England. It’s ‘luv’.

My buddy libdie is still bent out of shape. Too bad he cannot see the logic in my whole statement the other night. Perhaps I should go to Zimbabwe and tell them how it should be.

And the Gumbo shows up here JUST to jerk you all around. He doesn’t even vote and couldn’t care less who wins.

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 5:11 PM

I saw him earlier today. Have you seen him?

22044 on October 16, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Romney 54
Obama 43

Kimball Political Consulting

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 5:10 PM

We can dream, can’t we?

Technically, if we were dealing with an educated populace, we’d be looking at more than that.

But if we had an educated populace, jugears wouldn’t have been allowed near the Presidency in the first place.

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Too damn much optimism around here.

AP, it’s time to Release the Eeyore!

Bruno Strozek on October 16, 2012 at 5:13 PM

At that rate he should be able to take every state by Guantanamo. Isn’t that one of Obama’s 57?

astonerii on October 16, 2012 at 5:14 PM

VIRGINIA

Romney 54
Obama 43

Kimball Political Consulting

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Why do you want to make Gumby’s butt hurt?

/

JPeterman on October 16, 2012 at 5:14 PM

22044 on October 16, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Libfree posted once this morning and left. He seems to be very depressed.

Gumby posted a few times and ran away. The verbose one hasn’t even shown up today.

kingsjester on October 16, 2012 at 5:14 PM

I saw him earlier today. Have you seen him?

22044 on October 16, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Yeah. I feel bad for upsetting him that way.

I read the poll threads when I get home. I like to watch everyone get their shorts in a wad over gumbo. In fact, I can almost predict what comment will make him appear. It was the Jester’s comment today and sure enough, TWO posts later he was there!

Lanceman on October 16, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Why do you want to make Gumby’s butt hurt?

/

JPeterman on October 16, 2012 at 5:14 PM

What gumby does with his ladyparts is gumby’s business.

Kimball is a GOP consulting firm and this one’s a real outlier, otherwise it would have gotten my normal KABOOM.

But always fun to see numbers like that popping up.

Chuck Schick on October 16, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Literally no one doubts at this point, I think, that Romney’s post-debate surge is for real and not a bounce

But I thought the fundamentals behind the polls were unchanged. :0

Seriously, grin at the poll data and set your alarm clock for 5:00am on November 6th so you can be standing in line when the workers come to set up the polling place. In other words, my challenge to all the HA readers is to be first at your respective polling place. It’s that important.

Happy Nomad on October 16, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Yep, my wife even wants to practice.

It just so happens to be “ladies night” at the range.

I’ve been wanting her to try out some of the new compact pistols.

cozmo on October 16, 2012 at 5:08 PM

I’m taking my concealed weapons permit class this weekend. Finally going to get a gun other than my shotgun and rifle.

totherightofthem on October 16, 2012 at 5:16 PM

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