WaPo/ABC poll shows Obama up one …

posted at 8:41 am on October 15, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Let’s put the latest iteration of the Washington Post/ABC poll in perspective. In an electoral model where Republican turnout drops 9 points in two years, and comes in 7 points lower than its generational nadir in 2008, then it’s certainly probable that Barack Obama might edge Mitt Romney by three points. In fact, that may be the only way Obama could possibly win at this point:

On the eve of their second debate, President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney remain locked in a virtual dead heat nationally, with Republicans showing increased enthusiasm for their nominee after his big win in the first debate, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Likely voters in the new poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views. …

But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction. Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate. The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee.

The improvement in views of Romney carries directly into the underpinnings of his support: Fewer of his supporters now express anxiety about a Romney administration, and the number of his backers saying they support him “very enthusiastically” jumped by double digits. Among the likely voters supporting Romney, 62 percent now do so intensely, exactly double the number who were eagerly lined up behind Republican nominee John McCain at this stage in the campaign four years ago.

And yet, with all that enthusiasm on display, the partisan split among likely voters in this poll is a jaw-dropping D+9, 35/26/33.  The D/R/I in 2008′s presidential election was a D+7 at 39/32/29, while the midterm was 35/35/30,  Is there any reason to think that Democratic participation will be so off-the-charts huge that it will reduce Republican participation by nearly a third from the midterm elections, our most recent model of the electorate?  No, as the Post’s own findings on enthusiasm show.

If you want to know how this election is heading, at least for the moment, take a look at the independent vote.  Romney leads it by six points, 48/42, with just over three weeks to go.  Obama won indies by eight in 2008, 52/44, on his way to a seven-point win overall.  The only way Obama can be leading by three while suffering a fourteen-point reversal in the gap among indies is to have an overwhelming Democratic base turnout, which would have to be prompted by a huge enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats — which hasn’t turned up in any poll, including this one.

And even with the D+9 sample advantage, Obama’s lead is stuck within the margin of error, and he still can’t get to 50%.  Even in an alternate universe, Obama’s in trouble.


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I will be here to accept my accolades, which should come early when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Broken clocks don’t get accolades for being right twice a day. They eventually end up in the trash.

joejm65 on October 15, 2012 at 9:28 AM

“(When it comes to the all-important swing state of Ohio this election), the momentum is clearly with Romney.

(When asked how important the independent vote is for Ohio) Extremely important. For starters, Ohio does not have registration by political party. People will identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans but most voters in Ohio are independents.

Obama just doesn’t have wiggle room in Ohio. Ohio is very important, and it’s going to be very, very close.

“the president starts out with a solid deficit — 39 percent who rate him poorly or strongly disapprove of his job performance. That means to be credible, he has to win over 90 percent of the rest of the voters. Right now he’s at about 47 percent overall approval, and 50 percent disapprove. But 39 percent strongly disapprove — they’re just not going to vote for him.

President Obama had been leading by double digits among independents — now it is swung over in favor of Romney.

Frankly if an incumbent is under 45-46 percent who feel that he deserves to be re-elected, that’s normally trouble for the incumbent. When we first started in Ohio, it was 45 percent who felt that he deserved to be re-elected. Then . . . time for someone new is at 48 percent — just not good news for the president at this moment.

– John Zogby

Zogby says he’s seen the state go from being up for grabs to solidly in Obama’s corner to now, up for grabs again. But with the independent factor, Romney is on track to prevail.

NewsmaxZogby Poll: Obama’s Lead Dwindles to 1 Point in Ohio — 45%-44%

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Indeed coffeelover….. if this was a gop Pres…. the 24/7 outrage election would be over

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Benghazi was a segment on every Sunday show…yet Martha held up the NYT and not one story on the front page. Even the NYT ombudsman was critical of their not putting the story they did do on the main page. Disgraceful

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 9:30 AM

this just in! Biden has missed a dose – hide your biker chicks

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Actually, all the Dems decided we’re on the right track when Bill Clinton told them so at the convention. Prosperity is right around the corner, you just haven’t “felt it yet.” Yeah, that’s the ticket. Wait until all the new Obama taxes go into effect next year. Then we’ll REALLY feel like we’re on the right track.

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Dems and Dem leaners are more engaged, so his job approval and the right track/wrong track numbers reflect that

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Well this is certainly good news:

Florida Senate: Nelson (D) 46%, Mack (R) 45%

Just a week ago it looked like Nelson was running away with it.

Must be the “Biden effect.”

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Oh thanks Flora Duh, I was trying to get used to the fact that Nelson was running away with it. This does give me hope.

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Well this is certainly good news:

Florida Senate: Nelson (D) 46%, Mack (R) 45%

Just a week ago it looked like Nelson was running away with it.

Must be the “Biden effect.”

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 9:26 AM

That would be a nice pickup for the GOP. Hell, I always thought it was a given considering Florida is a red-leaning state and Nelson has the Obamacare vote on his record which theoretically would make him toxic with seniors.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I posted the newest Ohio poll (PPP) showing Obama with a solid lead on Sat night.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:24 AM

And, that poll has been debunked…unless Calypso Louie’s Mother Wheel has dropped new voters into counties like Cuyahoga.

By the way, a REQUEST for an absentee ballot is not a vote until it is actually returned.

In some counties, PPP counted REQUESTS.

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Its important that they show Obama up by a few points so that people don’t ask too many questions when they win by cheating.

LilyBart on October 15, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Disgraceful indeed coffeelover

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Resist We Much on October 14, 2012 at 8:51 PM”

That poll was taken before the new Zogby poll out tonight. Keep up to date, please.

Where’s the new Zogby poll showing Ohio results? Not his national poll numbers that were released this evening.

BTW, Colorado: Romney vs. Obama Denver Post/SurveyUSA

Romney 48, Obama 47

Romney +1

Still waiting, chickenshit.

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:35 AM

D+9 is my favorite unicorn

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Why is gumballs posting? Isn’t it a school day? Does his mommy know he ditched?

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 9:35 AM

How does Obama plan to win this November? This will be when the oceans begin to recede and the dead begin to rise.

Uniblogger on October 15, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I will be here to accept my accolades, which should come early when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Will you be here if he loses Ohio?

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:36 AM

16 years of “paused” global warming now equals the 16 years of actual warming. Where’s that story WaPo?

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:38 AM

New GWU/Battleground poll shows Obama +1, 49-48.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Actually, that poll was taken from 10/7-10/11, so it is pretty old.

gumbyandpokey on October 14, 2012 at 11:15 PM

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 9:41 AM

“Jerusalem is the capitaleth of a rogueth state that doesn’t existeth. Voteth for me Jews.” – President Ladies Tee

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Why is gumballs posting? Isn’t it a school day? Does his mommy know he ditched?

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Columbus Day school holiday.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 9:42 AM

New UPI National Poll:

Romney: 49%
Obama: 46%

Results are based on nationwide telephone interviews with 1,478 registered voters, of which 1,244 identified themselves as likely voters, conducted Oct. 7-13. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points for the total sample and 4.5 percentage points for likely voters

.

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/10/15/UPI-Poll-Romney-has-3-point-lead/UPI-53401350305819/

sentinelrules on October 15, 2012 at 9:43 AM

This is merely a naked attempt to drive the “poll of polls” at real clear politics back towards to Obama’s corner. The train has left the tracks and all they can manage to do is sit and blow the horn.

Hannibal on October 15, 2012 at 9:43 AM

I wouldn’t mind a bit if the relic media went down for an Obama loss….but, but, but, you kept saying he was ahead and there was no way for Romney to beat him…I didn’t think I had to get off my couch to vote!

Caseoftheblues on October 15, 2012 at 9:44 AM

HAY GUYS! I JUST ATE CHEERIOS FOR BREAKFAST! THEY ALL SAID O, SO THAT MEANS WISC IS AN OBAMA LOCK!

-Gumballs

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 9:44 AM

I will be here to accept my accolades, which should come early when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Ya know that Gravis poll you were flaunting last night? Here’s what Nate Silver had to say about it this morning.

Gravis Marketing surveys, for instance, rely on cheap automated interviews. While they are usually more Republican-leaning than the consensus, they also seem to wander about randomly with little rhyme or reason.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Rice Crispys are racist

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:45 AM

OMG, it’s the feared Biden Wave!!

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 9:20 AM

And this on top of the much vaunted Big Bird bounce.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 9:49 AM

The skewed poll is really no surprise. Someone had to come in and rescue the Big Zero from all the other truthful polls. The election is going to be totally different than what polls like this project. Romney is going to win and win big. I can feel it.

COgirl on October 15, 2012 at 9:49 AM

When you cant actually win a poll, go back to skewing the polls until Obama gets a lead. At least Gumby will always believe whatever any poll says.

milcus on October 15, 2012 at 9:50 AM

And this on top of the much vaunted Big Bird bounce.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Big Bird waves are often mistaken for urine tsunamis

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Can someone explain a D/R/I that accounts for only 94% of the population? I assume that the category of “Independent” includes everyone who doesn’t identify as D or R, right? If that’s the case, then the numbers have to add to 100.

Selkirk on October 15, 2012 at 9:52 AM

I will be here to accept my accolades, which should come early when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Hey, bitterclinger. In Ohio -

Obama is only drawing 9K+ crowds on college campuses

Romney is over 10+ at outdoor events across the state.

Apples/apples

Obama – Kent State – 9,000 indoors, 4pm

Romney – Cuy Falls – 13,000 outdoors, 8pm, 42 degrees

These two are minutes from each other. Same community pools

budfox on October 15, 2012 at 9:53 AM

You need to fix the headline. Obama leads by 3 not 1.

mitchellvii on October 15, 2012 at 9:54 AM

these idiotic polls with oversampling of democrats keeps Owe supporters like gumbyandpokey happy for a few more weeks. It’s a good thing because it cuts down his meds for awhile before they have to triple the dosage.

katablog.com on October 15, 2012 at 9:55 AM

“Jerusalem is the capitaleth of a rogueth state that doesn’t existeth. Voteth for me Jews.” –

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Say that in a Mr. Burns voice LOL!

/Simpsons

Key West Reader on October 15, 2012 at 9:56 AM

OMG, it’s the feared Biden Wave!!

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 9:20 AM

And this on top of the much vaunted Big Bird bounce.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Don’t forget the Atomic Bomb unemployment number.

She says, “Hi!” to Gumby!

lol

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Rasmussen today has Romney up 1 49-48, down from his 2 pt lead the day before.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I did in my head :) Put my hands out and drummed the fingers

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:58 AM

And Obama now leads with Independents in Ras.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:58 AM

D+9 is ridiculous. we all know it’s going to be D+47

NoVAHockey on October 15, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Rasmussen: 48% Approve – 51% Disapprove

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:00 AM

wait a sec…did gumby just poke Rasmussen?

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 10:00 AM

And Obama now leads with Independents in Ras.

Yet he’s still losing. Go home, schmuck.

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 10:00 AM

D+9 is ridiculous. we all know it’s going to be D+47

NoVAHockey on October 15, 2012 at 9:59 AM

And we all know that Wisconsin is NOT in play! California maybe, but not Wisconsin.

VegasRick on October 15, 2012 at 10:01 AM

But Gumby! UPI had Romney up 3!!!!1

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012/10/15/UPI-Poll-Romney-has-3-point-lead/UPI-53401350305819/

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Obama – Kent State – 9,000 indoors, 4pm
- free ObamaPhones
- class credit if you attend
- free U2 concert
- Oprah signing autographs
- Wet T-shirt contest

Romney – Cuy Falls – 13,000 outdoors, 8pm, 42 degrees
- costs $100 to get in
- Black Panthers guard the entrance

These two are minutes from each other. Same community pools

budfox on October 15, 2012 at 9:53 AM

FIFY

faraway on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Strong retail sales report out today.

GDP looking to rebound in Q3

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Ras: “Nationally, Romney has had a slight lead or been tied on nine of the past 10 days. Before that, Obama had been ahead or tied for 16 consecutive days.”

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

I won’t be like this once Candy gets a hold of Romney, I believe she called the Romney Ryan pick a “death wish”…

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Strong retail sales report out today.

bendmeandpokeme on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Thanks Chick-Fil-A

faraway on October 15, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Ras: “Nationally, Romney has had a slight lead or been tied on nine of the past 10 days. Before that, Obama had been ahead or tied for 16 consecutive days.”

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Yes, I would always like to be ahead of the game at the end of the game, than at the beginning…

Campaigns, often, are won the last few weeks, never the first few weeks.

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Strong retail sales report out today.

GDP looking to rebound in Q3

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

You comment style is almost exactly like getalife.

hawkdriver on October 15, 2012 at 10:05 AM

When O’s losing just sprinkle some D+9 fairy farts

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Currently, 32% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11 (see trends).

In 2008, we showed virtually no change during the final 40 days of the campaign. Then-candidate Obama was between 50% and 52% in our polling every single day. He generally held a five- or six-point lead, occasionally bouncing up to an eight-point advantage and only once falling below a four point-lead.

During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout. Still, all indications so far for Election 2012 suggest that Republicans are more engaged and more likely to turn out.

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 47%
Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

When O’s losing just sprinkle some D+9 fairy farts

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

that one got reported and erased on WaPo :(

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Strong retail sales report out today.

GDP looking to rebound in Q3

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Did you see it was because of gas sales. Pretty sad when you are excited about gas prices that are bankrupting a lot of Americans.

Actually you are just sad all around.

gophergirl on October 15, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Strong retail sales report out today.
GDP looking to rebound in Q3

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Careful, you may rub yourself raw fapping to this one. The actual numbers dropped; the difference is purely “seasonal adjustment”, otherwise known as fudge.

Archivarix on October 15, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Did you see it was because of gas sales.

gophergirl on October 15, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Socialist growth is when you have inflation. Thanks QE 1/2/3!!!

faraway on October 15, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Strong retail sales report out today.

GDP looking to rebound in Q3

numbers being calculated by same team that provided 7.8% (soon to be revised) unemployment numbers.

katablog.com on October 15, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Even in an alternate universe, Obama’s in trouble.

Atomic Wedgie?

Del Dolemonte on October 15, 2012 at 10:14 AM

New UPI National Poll:

Romney: 49%
Obama: 46%

For some reason RCP doesn’t include this poll.

Jon0815 on October 15, 2012 at 10:15 AM

iPhone5 sales in September are not repeatable

faraway on October 15, 2012 at 10:16 AM

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Yep. I warned people, who were declaring the race over in September, that you can only call a candidate “toast” once.

Unlike Gumby, I don’t know who is going to win. I have much less faith in polls that he does because I’ve seen them fail as predictive tools too many times, especially when it comes to over-sampling Democrats. John Kerry was supposed to win in 2004. Scott Walker was supposed to be recalled, but he won by a larger margin that he originally received and cut the Democrats’ vote amongst 18-29 by 50%. The Democrats were supposed to retain the House in 2010. Scott Brown wasn’t supposed to win. Chris Christie was supposed to lose. &c.

The idea that Obama is going to get the same turnout as he did in 2008 or even surpass it is a faerie tale. The belief that Mitt Romney is John McCain Part Deux is a unicorn fart.

Obama has a record and isn’t giving people a reason to vote for him…unless voters want 4 more years of THIS. He has no second term agenda other than to raise taxes on the 1%, which MIGHT cut the deficit by 5-8%. That’s it.

I’m a libertarian and not even a big fan of Romney, but at least he is running on something optimistic and talking about building up rather than tearing down.

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:16 AM

NewsmaxZogby Poll: Obama’s Lead Dwindles to 1 Point in Ohio — 45%-44%

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:29 AM

FWIW Zog is an online “poll”, so it’s worthless.

Del Dolemonte on October 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Obama really had to screw up for Libertarians to lean Romney 70/30

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM

New ARG polls:

Romney leading by 1% in Virginia
Tied with Obama in Iowa.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

sentinelrules on October 15, 2012 at 10:24 AM

I won’t be like this once Candy gets a hold of Romney, I believe she called the Romney Ryan pick a “death wish”…

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I wish someone would frame this as a question tomorrow night.
“Governor Romney, tonight’s moderator called your ticket a death wish. Please respond to this biased opinion that she gave on a supposed news program.

Brat on October 15, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Strong retail sales report out today.

GDP looking to rebound in Q3

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Let’s look at the headlines on CNBC (not even Fox Business):

* Retail Posts Rise on Boost From Surging Gas, Auto Sales

* Stocks Pare Gains as Nasdaq Dips; Citi Up 4%

* US Business Inventories Rise, Top Estimates

* Citi Profit Falls but Tops Estimates; Shares Move Higher

* High-Speed Trading No Longer Hurtling Forward

* Switzerland Prepares Army for Euro Zone Fallout

* Mark Mobius: Global Bull Market ‘Will Continue’ (‘cuz it’s fueled by QInfinity, which Bernanke claims is good for the world economy — sure, if you are part of the 1%. It strips the rest of the people of both their wealth through devaluation and purchasing power, as well as retards savings by keeping interest rates artificially low)

* Chinese Exporters: Situation ‘Already Worse Than 2008′

* Why Aren’t Companies Investing?

* Jury Out on Negative Earnings Growth

* ‘What Me Worry?’ Answer May Be ‘Yes’

* Wall Street Warns: Solve ‘Fiscal Cliff’!

* Spain Bailout Request Could Come in November

* Is It Time to Get Off China’s Growth ‘Drug?’

* Multinationals Buy Up ‘Organic’ Food Firms

* Employees ‘Filled With Anxieties’

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:29 AM

“John Kerry was supposed to win in 2004.”

Wrong again…

General Election: Bush vs. Kerry
Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Bush (R) Kerry (D) Spread
Final Results – – 50.7 48.3 Bush +2.4
RCP Average 10/27 – 11/1 – 48.9 47.4 Bush +1.5
Marist 11/1 – 11/1 – 49 50 Kerry +1
GW/Battleground 10/31 – 11/1 – 50 46 Bush +4
IBD/TIPP 10/30 – 11/1 – 50.1 48 Bush +2.1
CBS News 10/29 – 11/1 – 49 47 Bush +2
Harris 10/29 – 11/1 – 49 48 Bush +1
FOX News 10/30 – 10/31 – 46 48 Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby 10/29 – 10/31 – 48 47 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/29 – 10/31 – 49 49 Tie
NBC/WSJ 10/29 – 10/31 – 48 47 Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post 10/28 – 10/31 – 49 48 Bush +1
ARG 10/28 – 10/30 – 48 48 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 10/28 – 10/30 – 49 46 Bush +3
Pew Research 10/27 – 10/30 – 51 48 Bush +3
Newsweek 10/27 – 10/29 – 50 44 Bush +6
See All General Election: Bush vs. Kerry Polling Data

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:29 AM

I will be here to accept my accolades, which should come early when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

I wouldn’t get too excited about Ohio. First, most of the polls that I’ve see have a Democrat turnout model that exceeds 2008. Does anyone really think Obama is going to do better anywhere than he did in 2008?

Second, as an Ohioan, I have to tell you, enthusiasm for Obama here is way, way down compared to 2008. I’ve actually seen more Romney yard signs than Obama yard signs, and bumper stickers are about even. This may not mean much, but this is unheard of. Democrats always do better with this stuff because 1) they are more apt to show their loyalties, and 2) Republican stuff tends to get stolen or vandalized at a greater rate. Even on the campus of Kent State University, I see very little Obama stuff. It was everywhere in 2008.

Also, Romney has barely started to advertise here. I swear in September, during Sunday football and pre-game shows, it was one Obama ad after another. Now, it’s much more even.

I think Romney’s taking Ohio. If I’m wrong, and Obama wins, it will be extremely close.

Mullaney on October 15, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Brat on October 15, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I’ll ask online. 10,000 says it doesn’t make it on TV

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Polls to drive the news by the traitors in the old media.

MSNBCgasm!!

Work it HotAirians!!
FB Instagram Tumblr Twitter emails, phone calls, street corners with signs

PappyD61 on October 15, 2012 at 10:31 AM

My Frosted Mini Wheats were all half-white this morning. Obama’s a lock.

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 10:32 AM

FWIW Zog is an online “poll”, so it’s worthless.

Del Dolemonte on October 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM

I don’t put a lot of faith in Zog, but Gumby was fist-pumping Zog the other day so I like to hit him with his own polls when they show something different.

The main reason that I play poll-tag is to whack-a-gum. He is very selective in his poll reporting and almost always tells only part of the story. Also, one day, Rasmussen is a right-win poll that shouldn’t be trusted, the next day, it is totally reliable.

Last night, he told me that I wasn’t “current” and needed to “keep up.” In GumbyWorld, TOMORROW ISN’T CURRENT ENOUGH.

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Wrong again…

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Exit polls, my dear DumbGumb.

Bob Shrum, Kerry’s national campaign manager, rushed into Kerry’s office and said – based on exit polling:

“May I be the first to say, ‘Congratulations, Mr. President’?”

Remember when the networks called the race for Kerry based on the exit polls in Ohio?

Remember when the networks called Florida for Gore based on the EST exit polls (a portion of the state is on CST)?

No need to apologise.

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I ventured over to HuffPo. They have nothing about Libya. If you take Biden’s red meat performance. The letfist guru’s are worried about a spooled base and this D+9 poll is to motivate them. They are like children who need constant reassurance the Messiah is still the Messiah.

Conan on October 15, 2012 at 10:40 AM

If you want to know how this election is heading, at least for the moment, take a look at the independent vote.

As I’ve been saying, simple rule: whoever is winning independents is winning the election.

All this talk of a “base turnout” election is untenable when the fastest-growing party affiliation is Independent.

And as Iowahawk keeps pointing out, the polls are just not going to be very reliable this year. #9percentresponserate

TallDave on October 15, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Not an alternate Universe but a double down on the last Century. All these D+ polls are designed by the MSM/Press to prepare the American people to accept the massive voter fraud to come.

aposematic on October 15, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I’m a libertarian and not even a big fan of Romney, but at least he is running on something optimistic and talking about building up rather than tearing down.

I’m not a libertarian but this is exactly why I support Romney.

katablog.com on October 15, 2012 at 10:46 AM

The enthusiasm and intensity are with us. We just need to maintain it for 22 more days.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 9:05 AM

..wait, what? You mean after dreaming about having this crapsack Pantload™ POTUS dumped on his asss for the past three years, eleven months, and one week, I can’t take the next three weeks off and coast? You mean I gotta keep phoning and contributing and walking precincts?

That’s patently unfair! I don’t know if I can hold on!

/wild horses, etc.

The War Planner on October 15, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I will be here to accept my accolades, which should come early when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Again, this why you are despised here. This isn’t about an election, this is about you tying your deflated self worth to some useless polls, hoping beyond hope that they turn out to prove that you were right so that you post something puerile like:

I TOLD YOU SO.

So sad.

ShadowsPawn on October 15, 2012 at 10:48 AM

And libturds WaPo and ABC will go to any lengths and any lies to keep on trying to help Obamuh.

stukinIL4now on October 15, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I am going to make three predications about the future. First, Romney is going to be elected. Second, the economy will start to get better even before Romney takes office. This will be used as “proof” by the left that their view on running government was the correct one and Romney will be “unjustly” getting credit for their turning the economy around. Third, the pollsters are going to have a “Dewey defeats Truman” moment after the election and have to make substantial changes to their methodology if they want to be a relevant predictor of American politics.

Romney will win not because Obama had a bad debate performance or even that Romney had a good debate performance. Those certainly helped energize the GOP. Romney will win because of the inherent flaws in the liberal mentality that ignores the real world and seeks a utopia. Obama is in over his head and has the liberal mentality that his “brilliance” and “moral superiority” means all should have gone well, refuses to acknowledge that Obama’s own actions are part of the problem and doesn’t have the real world experience to realize how the Chicago machine way of providing money to supporters through the government is not a solution but making the problem worse.

The economy will get better because this recession has been drawn out and the recovery slowed under government executive decisions. The anticipation that Romney will reverse some of these executive decisions, give a blanket exemption to Obamacare requirements (as opposed to selective exemptions that primarily went to supporters such as unions) and in general get the federal government out of the way of private enterprises will cause companies to start hiring and expanding. If Romney doesn’t follow through, expect a double dip recession. The fact that these changes can occur before Romney even takes office doesn’t mean Romney’s victory isn’t part of the impetus for the changes. FYI, if my first prediction is wrong and Obama wins, expect a double dip recession to start. The same anticipation of an improved economy due to less government interference would be reversed to anticipation of a worse economy due to more government interference.

The pollsters will have to re-access their methodology as they find their results not matching the one poll that matters held on the first Tuesday of November. While some pollsters may be putting their thumbs on the scale for the left (just as some do for the right), that won’t be the reasons the polls are so mismatched to the election results. Rather, there are two factors that I think are combining to make it harder for pollsters to use their current methods to produce an accurate product. In a perfect world, pollsters would be able to contact all that they randomly targeted. Pew reports that response rates have dropped from 36% fifteen years ago, 15% three years ago to a current 9%. So instead of polling reaching ~1 in 3 targeted, they are reaching ~1 in 11. Imagine taking a set of poll responses and randomly tossing out 10 out of 11 results. Would you expect the top line numbers to remain the same? What if in tossing those 10 out of 11 numbers you didn’t do it randomly, but in a way that got rid of more GOP than dems? Would you expect those results to be the same as the full sample?
Why are response rates falling? Some of this is technological with a societal shift from land lines to cell phones. This is similar to the “Dewey defeats Truman” pollster errors that surveyed those with phones and systematically missed those without phones. But that isn’t all of the difference because cell phone response rates are even lower than land lines.
I suspect that a significant portion of the loss of response has to do with the MSM actions that have resulted in a loss of trust in the media. Plotting response rates and media trust together will likely show a similar trend. If this hypothesis is correct then those who are more likely to not respond will also be those who are more likely to have lost more trust in the media, those on the right. How do pollsters alter their methodology so that they can connect with a truly representative sample of voters? I’m not sure. The inevitable 180 degree flip in the MSM coverage from a dem to GOP administration won’t help. A media that quietly ignores a president who jets off to Las Vegas hours after an American ambassador is killed and ignores a VP in a debate contradicting sworn testimony about request for more security, will suddenly find a loud voice in finding fault with Romney. This won’t increase MSM trust, but rather will further erode it. Ironically, if the media gave Romney the same sympathetic coverage they give Obama, that would also likely further erode MSM trust. Just as it took decades for the MSM to lose the respect of their audience, it would take years of truly fair and balanced coverage for the MSM to regain their lost trust.
The problem for the pollsters will be to once again get a truly random sample upon which all the statistical theories of polling rest. A brute force approach of constantly following up to make contact will only have so much success as the inevitable delays will spread out the snapshot of the poll. Trying to find markers (e.g. party identification) and thus rebalance the samples found can be a crude method, but will introduce their own set of problems. I don’t see a quick fix for the pollsters, but I do see a greater discrepancy between the polls and the real world if they don’t find an improved method for getting a truly representative sample in their polls.

yetanotherjohn on October 15, 2012 at 10:51 AM

FWIW Zog is an online “poll”, so it’s worthless.

Del Dolemonte on October 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM

..in additions to the caveats noted above by other commenters, it’s significant that The CrapSack can’t get above 45% even in an internet poll.

The War Planner on October 15, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Does anyone actually believe anything WaPo/ABC put out anymore?

Hell, their “poll” was probably taken in their own newsrooms!

GarandFan on October 15, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Don’t forget the Atomic Bomb unemployment number.

She says, “Hi!” to Gumby!

lol

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:57 AM

That was his Monday Quote. His/her/its first quote on the day of release was Miraculous unemployment numbers.

chemman on October 15, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:29 AM

..you are relentless and remorseless — and those are both good things!

The War Planner on October 15, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I do believe that the +9 dem contingent includes a significant number of dead people and Mickey Mice. They have to do it this way because that’s what the Obutthead Administration is pushing for.

Again, my prediction:

Romney wins in a landslide (54%)**

**if it’s a fair election, which is a big if….

NOMOBO on October 15, 2012 at 11:00 AM

“As I’ve been saying, simple rule: whoever is winning independents is winning the election.”

And in Rasmussen, Obama is winning Independents.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Hell, their “poll” was probably taken in their own newsrooms!

GarandFan on October 15, 2012 at 10:55 AM

that would be closer to D+567.5 (for the midget)

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 11:01 AM

yes, my cherry picker now includes the Rasmussen

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 11:03 AM

I see Gumbass is busy this morning doing his usual disinformation dance to spin MY state to the Bumbler in Chief, with Wonderteeth his IQ deficient sidekick…

Took an informal poll with the other parents at the bus stop this morning,…

Anyone know folks who voted Obama in 08 and wouldn’t cross the road to put him out if her were on fire this time?

Everyone?… thought so..

Anyone know a single McCain voter, who is just soooo inpressed they’re voting for the polarizing pair of halfwits?

Not even one?…… nope..

Unscientific as Hell.. but neither is WaPo.. D+9 is insane.. I don’t see ANY Obama signs or bumper stickers around this county.. none.. not on a casual check.. Romney has signs out.. and everyone I meet is talking about their desire he curb stomp Gumbass’s God-King…

D+9 is so outrageous it’s past funny into an obvious gimmick to boost Obama’s numbers..

Gumbass can spin like a top all day long, I live here.. and other than the usual blue urban areas, where turnout is NOT expected to be anywhere near 08 levels.. Red Team has ALL the enthusiasm, all the momentum..

Ohio is going for Romney..

Obama can’t have my state.. not this time, not ever again..

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:05 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 11:01 AM

idisVA

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 11:06 AM

my cherry picker is tired

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I’m not a libertarian but this is exactly why I support Romney.

katablog.com on October 15, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I’ve come up with a list of reasons why people should vote for Obama. Let me know if you have any others!

Obama: Reasons To Vote For Me!

M2RB: “We Are The World”

:-)

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 11:09 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 11:01 AM

idisVA

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Yep

ShadowsPawn on October 15, 2012 at 11:11 AM

New ARG National poll (10/11/12 – 10/14/12)

Romney: 48%
Obama: 47%

D+4 sample, Romney winning independents by 14%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NA12-5.html

sentinelrules on October 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM

…you are relentless and remorseless — and those are both good things!

The War Planner on October 15, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Yes, I am. It is like picking off the wings of mosquitoes, gnats and wasps and then lighting them on fire.

Bloody fun!

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 11:14 AM

New ARG National poll (10/11/12 – 10/14/12)

Romney: 48%
Obama: 47%

D+4 sample, Romney winning independents by 14%

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/NA12-5.html

sentinelrules on October 15, 2012 at 11:13 AM

But that’s not the poll gumby has decided to choose for the day.

ShadowsPawn on October 15, 2012 at 11:14 AM

And, that poll has been debunked…unless Calypso Louie’s Mother Wheel has dropped new voters into counties like Cuyahoga.

By the way, a REQUEST for an absentee ballot is not a vote until it is actually returned.

In some counties, PPP counted REQUESTS.

Here is what is really going on data wise from Ohio posted at Ace of Spades HQ:
check out ningrim’s spreadsheet

Ronaldusmax on October 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

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