WaPo/ABC poll shows Obama up one …

posted at 8:41 am on October 15, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Let’s put the latest iteration of the Washington Post/ABC poll in perspective. In an electoral model where Republican turnout drops 9 points in two years, and comes in 7 points lower than its generational nadir in 2008, then it’s certainly probable that Barack Obama might edge Mitt Romney by three points. In fact, that may be the only way Obama could possibly win at this point:

On the eve of their second debate, President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney remain locked in a virtual dead heat nationally, with Republicans showing increased enthusiasm for their nominee after his big win in the first debate, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Likely voters in the new poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views. …

But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction. Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate. The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee.

The improvement in views of Romney carries directly into the underpinnings of his support: Fewer of his supporters now express anxiety about a Romney administration, and the number of his backers saying they support him “very enthusiastically” jumped by double digits. Among the likely voters supporting Romney, 62 percent now do so intensely, exactly double the number who were eagerly lined up behind Republican nominee John McCain at this stage in the campaign four years ago.

And yet, with all that enthusiasm on display, the partisan split among likely voters in this poll is a jaw-dropping D+9, 35/26/33.  The D/R/I in 2008′s presidential election was a D+7 at 39/32/29, while the midterm was 35/35/30,  Is there any reason to think that Democratic participation will be so off-the-charts huge that it will reduce Republican participation by nearly a third from the midterm elections, our most recent model of the electorate?  No, as the Post’s own findings on enthusiasm show.

If you want to know how this election is heading, at least for the moment, take a look at the independent vote.  Romney leads it by six points, 48/42, with just over three weeks to go.  Obama won indies by eight in 2008, 52/44, on his way to a seven-point win overall.  The only way Obama can be leading by three while suffering a fourteen-point reversal in the gap among indies is to have an overwhelming Democratic base turnout, which would have to be prompted by a huge enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats — which hasn’t turned up in any poll, including this one.

And even with the D+9 sample advantage, Obama’s lead is stuck within the margin of error, and he still can’t get to 50%.  Even in an alternate universe, Obama’s in trouble.


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Heh, nice pic. It does feel like we’re living in an empire now.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Gumby and pokemon hardest hit, but he’ll be here soon to inform us of our impending doom.

gsherin on October 15, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Your headline says, “Obama by 1″, should say “3″ I believe.

Try telling the moonbats over at WAPO this. They will tell you you don’t understand polling.

The IDB/TIPP poll is also assuming a +7 Dem turnout.

mitchellvii on October 15, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Rigging polls is easy. Math is hard.

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 8:45 AM

He’s doing awesome…go dear leader
-morning Joe crew

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 8:45 AM

And even with the D+9 sample advantage, Obama’s lead is stuck within the margin of error, and he still can’t get to 50%. Even in an alternate universe, Obama’s in trouble.

they’re tryin’ to just keep it close enough to cheat….

Poll watchers in battleground states: BOLO (Be On The Lookout)

I hope that there are a legion of patriots getting involved in those polls. Dems are going to be curbstomped and each of their bullsh!t cheat votes should be tossed along with the rest of the chicago basketball trash.

ted c on October 15, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Maybe the small clay figurine can educate you on these polls today Ed. Lord knows he loves his polls.

Bmore on October 15, 2012 at 8:45 AM

We keep leaving out the dead people in this election forecast. Perhaps the Big Bird vote really will be huge this year.

Grunt on October 15, 2012 at 8:46 AM

I hope folks who are finally tuning in enthusiastic don’t fall for this poll and decide to sit out

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 8:46 AM

I hope folks who are finally tuning in enthusiastic don’t fall for this poll and decide to sit out

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Doubtful. The media’s been cooking the polls for so long now that people on our side are attuned to it. It’s kinda like the labor participation rate and the unemployment numbers. It’s to the point where even the media openly acknowledges it since they know a lot of us are onto their antics.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Gotta keep the RCP averages in place. Romney is up – above any normal margin of error nationally – and as such the battleground polling is made of the same silliness. I have been saying 300/200 Romney for awhile and nothing leads me to feel that is worng.

Lot’s of vested interests doing everything in their power to cloud this. My reaction, we should not forget this next year. We need to work to make the MSM even less relevant and less profitable so that its footprint shrinks further. Until one day they are gone.

Zomcon JEM on October 15, 2012 at 8:51 AM

I think that every swingin’ richard with a pulse is chomping at the bit to vote for Romney. Partially, they want to see Obama lose and the country to get back on track. Most importantly, they want to see Obama lose. /

ted c on October 15, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Gumby and pokemon hardest hit, but he’ll be here soon to inform us of our impending doom.

gsherin on October 15, 2012 at 8:43 AM

I don’t know – even when you’re paid by the post, it has to be hard for them to keep typing completely baseless crap that they know everyone is just laughing at

AJsDaddie on October 15, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Obama’s in trouble? that sounds sorta racist Ed

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 8:52 AM

I have been saying 300/200 Romney for awhile and nothing leads me to feel that is wrong.

Zomcon JEM on October 15, 2012 at 8:51 AM

.

I tend to agree. I think Romney has great potential to get >300EVs. The dirty deeds of the left in the “uncounted ballots” “hanging chads” and the ghosts of the 2000 election are still haunting us.

ted c on October 15, 2012 at 8:53 AM

The Dems hope for one of two outcomes:

1) An outright win, or pushing the vote into “cheating range.” This poll is meant to try and get the bandwagon effect going again, after Mitt’s RPG of a debate performance.

2) A November 7 strategy much like they used against George W Bush. Have the polls reflect a closer vote than it turns out to be, but bandwagon enough that it looks like Republican shenanigans. They then plan to wave this bloody shirt throughout Romney’s Presidency as a means of neutralizing him and keeping him from dismantling their constituencies’ taxpayer funding.

We not only need to kill it a couple weeks from now, we need to overkill it. The result needs to be so not-close that the Democrats can’t use their November 7 strategy. This is not just for Mitt Romney, but for any hope of reforming our way out of the entitlement mess.

Sekhmet on October 15, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Yes, a huge, invisible D+9 wave is sweeping the country! Biden gets the credit! //

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Even with all the fraud, D+9 seems a tad ambitious for Dems to pull off.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 8:54 AM

The most insightful statement about this was in your lede: obama is certainly up one. Which one it is is certainly up for debate. However, Ed, you should be congratulated. Your educating your readers on poll construction dynamics has resulted in a much less gullible citizenry. Others have caught on to the polling chicanery and now we have the Unskewed Polls site. Even the hard left biased media are having to ratchet it back a little before they are laughed off the stage and ignored. This is all due to you Ed.

Old Country Boy on October 15, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Hmmmm…so what do they know that we don’t know? What plans doth Valerie Jarrett have for America? *shiver*

SouthernGent on October 15, 2012 at 8:55 AM

I think that every swingin’ richard with a pulse is chomping at the bit to vote for Romney. Partially, they want to see Obama lose and the country to get back on track. Most importantly, they want to see Obama lose. /

ted c on October 15, 2012 at 8:51 AM

What’s worse for Obama is that now people genuinely want to vote for Mitt. That’s what the first debate did for him and it’s why the polls have shifted so much(except of course when weighted with D+9 samples like WaPo/ABC). And that’s deadly for the Obama campaign. His only shot IMO at reelection was severely depressing the Republican turnout. That seems like an impossibility at this point.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 8:55 AM

This is all due to you Ed.

Old Country Boy on October 15, 2012 at 8:54 AM

whooooooooooooa there! I don’t think it’s all due to a racist

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 8:56 AM

In the ungoateed Spock universe Romney is currently up by 7 points.

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Obama’s in trouble? that sounds sorta racist Ed

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Oh! He’s in trouble. They actually had Dems out in my neighborhood this weekend drumming up support in an area where you can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a Democrat.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 8:56 AM

I’ve got to stop reading blogs for the next month. I hate the mainstream meadia so much it’s affecting my health. With a fair media Romney would be up 55-45; 532-6. I still wouldn’t be surprised if Obama pulled it out, all thanks to the media. But people are waking up to their shenanigans though, hopefully it will be quickly enough to help this time around.

levi on October 15, 2012 at 8:57 AM

this is why it’s so hilarious when Dems cite the R+3 in the CNN post Veep debate poll

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 8:57 AM

*crossing fingers * doughboy

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 8:58 AM

It’s the famous Biden/Benghazi bounce!!

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 8:58 AM

In other news, WaPo/ABC pollers miss GumbeyandPokey commentary on Hot Air.

hawkdriver on October 15, 2012 at 8:58 AM

where you can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a Democrat.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 8:56 AM

don’t you mean a dead dog…maybe with some rice and soy sauce?

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 8:59 AM

The IDB/TIPP poll is also assuming a +7 Dem turnout.

mitchellvii on October 15, 2012 at 8:44 AM

That’s on a good day. Every other day in their polling has been D+8 or 9.

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Two things:

1) The media has a long history of cooking the polls prior to elections.
2) It never does them any good.

1980

mitchellvii on October 15, 2012 at 9:01 AM

The only way Obama can be leading by three while suffering a fourteen-point reversal in the gap among indies is to have an overwhelming Democratic base turnout, which would have to be prompted by a huge enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats — which hasn’t turned up in any poll, including this one.

Don’t worry, our intrepid pole poll sniffer will find one for us.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Face it: The country’s got a feevah, and the only prescription is four more years of Obama.

/

BuckeyeSam on October 15, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Every other poll in America had Romney gaining ground after the debate except WaPo/ABC….hmmmmmmmm…..You don’t think they’re biased, do you?

BettyRuth on October 15, 2012 at 9:02 AM

UnSkewed ElectionProjections

President: Romney 301, Obama 221

Senate: 53 Republicans, 47 Democrats

House: Coming soon

Governor: 34 Republicans, 16 Democrats

Where did I put those dancing shoes?

Naturally Curly on October 15, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Ed I also want to thank you for the excellent work in breaking down ALL these polls.

I am still cautiously optimistic. I fear the cheating and fraud and urge everyone to keep their eyes and ears open.

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 9:04 AM

*crossing fingers * doughboy

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 8:58 AM

If you’re ever in doubt, just remember 2010. Remember the tea party rallies, including that one in DC where hundreds of thousands attended on their own dime. Remember the tens, if not hundreds, of thousands who flocked to Chick-Fil-A a couple months ago. Look at the huge crowds at the Romney/Ryan rallies.

The enthusiasm and intensity are with us. We just need to maintain it for 22 more days.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Speaking of bad media, did others watch how the FNS panel ganged up on the one NYT reporter about having his paper actually dig into the Benghazi fiasco. I thought the guy was going to start crying. I wonder if Laura Ingraham gave him a hug after the show and told him he and his paper are still worthless.

BuckeyeSam on October 15, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Yes, a huge, invisible D+9 wave is sweeping the country! Biden gets the credit! //

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 8:54 AM

TOLD YA SO!!!

- dumpyandhokey

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 9:07 AM

“The Oceans recedeth upon my say soeth! And dog meat is not as tougheth as snaketh meat. So says me-eth!” – President Ladies Tee

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:07 AM

RCP State Changes in Electoral Map

201 Obama/Biden

Toss Ups
146

191 Romney/Ryan

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 9:07 AM

The desperation is getting kind of funny.

gophergirl on October 15, 2012 at 9:08 AM

In other news, WaPo/ABC pollers miss GumbeyandPokey commentary on Hot Air.

hawkdriver on October 15, 2012 at 8:58 AM

…Hot Air is going to get a Nobel Prize for discovering mankinds first verifiable Homosapien… with a calloused brain!

KOOLAID2 on October 15, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Among the likely voters supporting Romney, 62 percent now do so intensely, exactly double the number who were eagerly lined up behind Republican nominee John McCain at this stage in the campaign four years ago.

I find this more shocking than anything else. Only 31% of Republicans were very enthusiastic to vote for McCain at this point, even with Palin?

And the only reason to do a D +9 poll at this point is to give Obama a good headline. Romney’s up with a reasonable sample, as they admit.

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 9:09 AM

I’m experiencing 1980 Deja Vu…all over again.

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 9:09 AM

I shudder to think how much unabashed voting fraud will be there. Lawlessness comes easy when crooks are at the wheel. Romney *must* stand up and promise that if – nay, when – he wins the election, every case of voting fraud (on both sides) will be rotting in jail till cows come home.

Archivarix on October 15, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Ot: chuck todd not too happy with graham implying cover up with benghazi

I’m sure we’ll hear this all day today …perish the thought of a cover up
..not this administration

Arrgghh

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Speaking of bad media, did others watch how the FNS panel ganged up on the one NYT reporter about having his paper actually dig into the Benghazi fiasco. I thought the guy was going to start crying. I wonder if Laura Ingraham gave him a hug after the show and told him he and his paper are still worthless.

BuckeyeSam on October 15, 2012 at 9:05 AM

I watched. Jeff Zelny (sp?) did look chastised as he should have. Laura pointed out that during the Plame event, NYT and all the other media were camped in front of homes and offices unlike the media hounding Rice, Hillary now. Martha on Fox going over it now on air.

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Dude..that unskewed site is a joke.

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Gumby and pokemon hardest hit, but he’ll be here soon to inform us of our impending doom.

gsherin on October 15, 2012 at 8:43 AM

…if enough of us keep farting…it might show up in our shorts!

KOOLAID2 on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

why how come half the DNC can boo Jews, but rethuglicans are the racists?

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

What’s worse for Obama is that now people genuinely want to vote for Mitt. That’s what the first debate did for him and it’s why the polls have shifted so much(except of course when weighted with D+9 samples like WaPo/ABC). And that’s deadly for the Obama campaign. His only shot IMO at reelection was severely depressing the Republican turnout. That seems like an impossibility at this point.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 8:55 AM

I’ve never seen such excitement to vote on our side. It even surpassess 2010.

I swear conservatives will camp out overnight so they are there as soon as the polls open.

gophergirl on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

New GWU/Battleground poll shows Obama +1, 49-48.

The most important trend in that poll is that the right track/wrong track number is breaking in Obama’s favor.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

If the sample is modified to 2008 assumptions … Obama is behind in the poll. And that is his BEST case from this poll, likely.

Arssanguinus on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I’m experiencing 1980 Deja Vu…all over again.

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Feels good, don’t it.

cozmo on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Dude..that unskewed site is a joke.

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

why do you say that?

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Yepper doughboy

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 9:13 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Your unicorn’s looking might pale, Skippy. You had better feed him more.

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Ugh. This $hit is really getting old.
Wish people would just STFU & stop trying to so openly manipulate stuff.
God I cannot wait til Nov.

Badger40 on October 15, 2012 at 9:13 AM

I swear conservatives will camp out overnight so they are there as soon as the polls open.

gophergirl on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

yes, but how early will the New Black Panthers show up?

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:14 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

…SEE!…someone sh!t again!

KOOLAID2 on October 15, 2012 at 9:14 AM

cozmo on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Yep. Feeling real good about things.

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 9:14 AM

why how come half the DNC can boo Jews, but rethuglicans are the racists?

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

That booing was taken completely out of context, dontcha know. //

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Ot: chuck todd not too happy with graham implying cover up with benghazi

Sadly, no one is allowed to critize this administration or call it on anything it says or does! Amazing that this is coming from the media as much as it is coming out of the Administration.

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

“There is NO ‘Romney Surge’ in Ohio.”

– gumbyandpokey, Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to Cairo Carney, Press Secretary, Ministry of Truth

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

And the generic Congressional ballot question in the Battleground poll is Dems +2.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

I’m experiencing 1980 Deja Vu…all over again.

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Me too, KJ! There is no obamathusiasm here in Monmouth County, NJ. I’ve seen one or two bumper stickers for him, that’s all. Please God we will also kick Menendez to the curb and send Joe Kyrillos to the senate.

Naturally Curly on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

So why, on all the internal poll questions, do they pull back from the likely voter screen and use a registered voter one?

Arssanguinus on October 15, 2012 at 9:16 AM

jaw-dropping D+9, 35/26/33.  The D/R/I in 2008′s presidential election was a D+7 at 39/32/29, while the midterm was 35/35/30,

2008 : 39/32/29 =100%

2010 : 35/35/30 = 100%

ABC Poll: 35/26/33 = 94%

How does the surveyed population not equal 100%? Those 6% end up in the wastebasket?

socalcon on October 15, 2012 at 9:17 AM

And the generic Congressional ballot question in the Battleground poll is Dems +2.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

OMFGZ like ELEVENTYS

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:17 AM

gophergirl….are u feeling better? I think there is more excitement this election. The people I am talking to are just wanting to get Obama out.

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 9:17 AM

And the generic Congressional ballot question in the Battleground poll is Dems +2.
gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Bless your heart, ain’t you a precious honey boo.

cozmo on October 15, 2012 at 9:17 AM

The term ‘partisan split’ needs to be replaced with the more accurate ‘Margin of Bias’ for this year’s election polls.

thuljunior on October 15, 2012 at 9:18 AM

I’d be interested in seeing an enthusiasm measure applied to the Romney-leaning independents vs the Obama-leaning independents. My guess is that the Romney leaners are much more keen on getting out and voting.

HakerA on October 15, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Obama voter GumbyandPokey, wherever you are, please promise us that you will post right up until election night. You are proving to be a great source of comedic material and you have brilliantly lived up to your well-deserved reputation as “HotAir’s own Baghdad Bob of Obama Supporters.”

We really must get a post from you, just hours before Romney is declared the winner on November 6, telling us that we all would do best to throw in the towel since Obama is certain to win.

A post like that would be an instant classic. Don’t let us down, ok? Please, for posterity sake. It would outdo all your previous greatest hits, including your memorable, repeated declarations during the Spring that “Scott Walker is a goner” and had zero chance surviving the recall.

bluegill on October 15, 2012 at 9:18 AM

gophergirl….are u feeling better? I think there is more excitement this election. The people I am talking to are just wanting to get Obama out.

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I am thanks. I think I slept more this weekend than I have in a month. Apparently I needed it.

gophergirl on October 15, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Hey, Gumby! Remember that poll you were fist-pumping last night about Colorado? Why did you neglect to mention the fact that it had Romney +1 in Ohio?

http://gravismarketing.blogspot.com/2012/10/ohio-poll-romney-leads-with-likely.html

I know that you complain about me not being “current” enough for you, but I don’t yet have next Saturday’s poll results.

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:19 AM

I wonder what the spread would be if we excluded the Dead Baby voters.

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:19 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Your efforts carry about as much weight around here as the late Madlyn Murray O’Hair would at a Southern Baptist Convention.

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 9:19 AM

His only shot IMO at reelection was severely depressing the Republican turnout. That seems like an impossibility at this point.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 8:55 AM

It’s been fun listening to Romney supporters in the polling I’ve been doing. The enthusiasm comes through loud and clear by every single one. I even had one woman tell me she is very old and sick…but she’s determined to “hang on” until election day. Based on my experiences, Romney voters are absolutely resolute.

lynncgb on October 15, 2012 at 9:19 AM

And the generic Congressional ballot question in the Battleground poll is Dems +2.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

OMG, it’s the feared Biden Wave!!

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 9:20 AM

“Obama voter GumbyandPokey, wherever you are, please promise us that you will post right up until election night. You are proving to be a great source of comedic material and you have brilliantly lived up to your well-deserved reputation as “HotAir’s own Baghdad Bob of Obama Supporters.”

We really must get a post from you, just hours before Romney is declared the winner on November 6, telling us that we all would do best to throw in the towel since Obama is certain to win.”

I will be here to accept my accolades, which should come early when Ohio is called for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

In re to the “town hall debate” coming up, this tidbit, buried at the end of a lengthy AP article, indicates how the deck will be stacked:

Town halls have lost some of their spontaneity. The 80 or so undecided voters chosen for Tuesday’s event must submit their questions in advance and moderator Candy Crowley of CNN will decide which people to call on. She can pose her own follow-up questions.

In 1992, questions weren’t screened in advance. Simpson walked through the audience Oprah-style and a producer signaled which person to talk to next, seeking a good demographic mix. She had no idea what the next person might ask.

onlineanalyst on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

“I spent five days in Ohio this week. And one thing I was struck by was just the enthusiasm on the Republican side. The crowds that Governor Romney was getting I would describe as Obama sized crowds from 2008. Some 10,000 people, day after day after day at rallies at county fairgrounds. And these people that I spoke to were not as intent on defeating the president, which they are. But they were saying in the affirmative that they want to elect Mitt Romney.”

– Jeff Zeleny of New York Times on FOX News Sunday today

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=GCv5p2TGQ0k

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

OMG, it’s the feared Biden Wave!!

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 9:20 AM

that wave comes with free Thorazine

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:21 AM

“And the generic Congressional ballot question in the Battleground poll is Dems +2.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:15 AM

OMG, it’s the feared Biden Wave!!

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 9:20 AM”

No, it’s probably the jobs report, which turned around the right track/wrong track numbers in both Battleground and ABC/Wash Post.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:22 AM

I find this more shocking than anything else. Only 31% of Republicans were very enthusiastic to vote for McCain at this point, even with Palin?

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 9:09 AM

I’m not surprised. Were any folks on here enthused about that ticket? I loved Palin and I wanted her as McCain’s VP before 99% of the country had even heard of her….but she was still just the VP at the end of the day. You could say the same for Paul Ryan, but I don’t think anyone expects him to just be window dressing for the next 4-8 years if Romney wins. He’s gonna be a key figure in negotiations with Congress over budgetary matters, not to mention an outstanding spokesman for the administration at large.

The other key difference obviously is with the top of the ticket. McCain was a horrible nominee. His heart never seemed to be in it. He was way too timid on the campaign trail and at the first two debates. He made too many issues off-limits that could’ve hurt Obama. And he had a track record of sticking it to conservatives which made it very difficult to feel excited about voting for him.

And I think an issue that most people overlook is the political landscape now compared to 4 years ago. I’m not just talking about the hopenchange euphoria and the historic candidacy of Obama. I mean the sobering reality that a President McCain would have had to deal with Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and a Democrat-controlled Congress. President Romney will be under no such restriction.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Romney Actually Leading Based on Today’s ABC/Washington Post Poll

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/15/romney-actually-leading-based-on-todays-abcwashington-post-poll/

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Indeed coffeelover….. if this was a gop Pres…. the 24/7 outrage election would be over

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 9:23 AM

New GWU/Battleground poll shows Obama +1, 49-48.

The most important trend in that poll is that the right track/wrong track number is breaking in Obama’s favor.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

So you went from touting anticipated gains in Gallup and Rasmussen polls (which never materialized, by the way) to educating us on the (eagerly anticipated) GWU/ Battleground poll. Sad. Next, you’ll be saying ‘listen, I asked my neighbors, and…’

joejm65 on October 15, 2012 at 9:23 AM

“Hey, Gumby! Remember that poll you were fist-pumping last night about Colorado? Why did you neglect to mention the fact that it had Romney +1 in Ohio?

http://gravismarketing.blogspot.com/2012/10/ohio-poll-romney-leads-with-likely.html

I know that you complain about me not being “current” enough for you, but I don’t yet have next Saturday’s poll results.

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 9:19 AM”

I posted the newest Ohio poll (PPP) showing Obama with a solid lead on Sat night.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:24 AM

the jobs report!

I love me some manipulated data that says I’m employed now

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I don’t care who Gumby poked and if they wanna get married, that’s fine with me.

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:26 AM

The Dem party asked for this poll because they need campaign contributions for the final stretch.

Wigglesworth on October 15, 2012 at 9:26 AM

New GWU/Battleground poll shows Obama +1, 49-48.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Taken 10/7-10/11.

Jon0815 on October 15, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Well this is certainly good news:

Florida Senate: Nelson (D) 46%, Mack (R) 45%

Just a week ago it looked like Nelson was running away with it.

Must be the “Biden effect.”

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 9:26 AM

This poll has been debunked by battleground watch

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 9:27 AM

No, it’s probably the jobs report, which turned around the right track/wrong track numbers in both Battleground and ABC/Wash Post.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Actually, all the Dems decided we’re on the right track when Bill Clinton told them so at the convention. Prosperity is right around the corner, you just haven’t “felt it yet.” Yeah, that’s the ticket. Wait until all the new Obama taxes go into effect next year. Then we’ll REALLY feel like we’re on the right track.

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 9:28 AM

I wonder if Candy Crowley will mention Obama’s a big post birth scissor in the eye ball fan.

sorry

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 9:28 AM

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