WaPo/ABC poll shows Obama up one …

posted at 8:41 am on October 15, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Let’s put the latest iteration of the Washington Post/ABC poll in perspective. In an electoral model where Republican turnout drops 9 points in two years, and comes in 7 points lower than its generational nadir in 2008, then it’s certainly probable that Barack Obama might edge Mitt Romney by three points. In fact, that may be the only way Obama could possibly win at this point:

On the eve of their second debate, President Obama and challenger Mitt Romney remain locked in a virtual dead heat nationally, with Republicans showing increased enthusiasm for their nominee after his big win in the first debate, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Likely voters in the new poll split 49 percent for Obama to 46 percent for Romney, basically unmoved from the poll two weeks ago, just before the two candidates met in Denver for their first debate. On topic after topic, the survey portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views. …

But more people changed their views of Romney, largely in a positive direction. Overall, more than twice as many say their opinions of the former Massachusetts governor improved than say they worsened as a result of the debate. The strongest reaction is among Romney backers, 70 percent of whom say Denver made them think more highly of the GOP nominee.

The improvement in views of Romney carries directly into the underpinnings of his support: Fewer of his supporters now express anxiety about a Romney administration, and the number of his backers saying they support him “very enthusiastically” jumped by double digits. Among the likely voters supporting Romney, 62 percent now do so intensely, exactly double the number who were eagerly lined up behind Republican nominee John McCain at this stage in the campaign four years ago.

And yet, with all that enthusiasm on display, the partisan split among likely voters in this poll is a jaw-dropping D+9, 35/26/33.  The D/R/I in 2008′s presidential election was a D+7 at 39/32/29, while the midterm was 35/35/30,  Is there any reason to think that Democratic participation will be so off-the-charts huge that it will reduce Republican participation by nearly a third from the midterm elections, our most recent model of the electorate?  No, as the Post’s own findings on enthusiasm show.

If you want to know how this election is heading, at least for the moment, take a look at the independent vote.  Romney leads it by six points, 48/42, with just over three weeks to go.  Obama won indies by eight in 2008, 52/44, on his way to a seven-point win overall.  The only way Obama can be leading by three while suffering a fourteen-point reversal in the gap among indies is to have an overwhelming Democratic base turnout, which would have to be prompted by a huge enthusiasm gap favoring Democrats — which hasn’t turned up in any poll, including this one.

And even with the D+9 sample advantage, Obama’s lead is stuck within the margin of error, and he still can’t get to 50%.  Even in an alternate universe, Obama’s in trouble.


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mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Reuters

Romney closing gap in Ohio as poll numbers, crowds rise

and The Miami Herald

Romney surge in Ohio tests both campaigns’ strategies

appear to support what you’re saying. Oh, and you can expect to get carpet bombed with pro-Romney ads in the next 2 weeks.

As a native Buckeye myself, I pray that you’re right.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Ah, but you’re forgetting to factor in all the Republican voters who will die from robot attacks on the way to the polls. It’s math!

CrustyB on October 15, 2012 at 11:16 AM

“As I’ve been saying, simple rule: whoever is winning independents is winning the election.”

And in Rasmussen, Obama is winning Independents.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Are you always such a pathetic waste of time?

Romney has CONSISTENTLY polled way ahead in the independents.. so you grab one outlier here or there, and declare the debate over..

no ..

You don’t get to cherry pick the information to create a false narrative.

Election 2012: Ohio President
Last modified: 10/11/2012 11:12 am

It’s still a one-point presidential race in Ohio, a critical battleground state where voters have already begun casting their ballots.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio voters shows President Obama with 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4

To declare Obama has MY state in a lock is in denial of reality. It’s tight, but Romney has ALL the MOMENTUM.. I’ live here.. NOBODY I TALK TO THINKS OBAMBA CAN WIN… EVEN HIS SUPPORTERS…

They are completelyu demoralized..

the only people convinced he will win are the political kos huff n puff left wing junkies..

no one else.

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:18 AM

As usual, by the time those of us on the west coast get around to reading Hot Air, comments are on page 3 and the trolls have taken over.

Hot Air becomes less relevent by the day.

MichaelGabriel on October 15, 2012 at 11:20 AM

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Poor gumbyandpokey.

Reality. What a concept.

You just blew his feeble little mind.

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 11:20 AM

huff n puff left wing junkies..

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:18 AM

You may not realize this, but you just outed him.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Hot Air becomes less relevent by the day.

MichaelGabriel on October 15, 2012 at 11:20 AM

you’re wrong and also a racist. It’s less relevant by the hour

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 11:22 AM

THIS POLL IS OBVIOUSLY INCORRECT

Dave Rywall on October 15, 2012 at 11:31 AM

stalwart analyses Rywall

Slade73 on October 15, 2012 at 11:32 AM

It is going to be a “wave” election that is going to wash all these skewed polls down the sewer where they belong…

Khun Joe on October 15, 2012 at 11:33 AM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/october_2012/questions_libya_october_13_14_2012
51% think Obama handling of Libya will hurt him in the election.

txmomof6 on October 15, 2012 at 11:34 AM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/october_2012/questions_libya_october_13_14_2012
51% think Obama handling of Libya will hurt him in the election.

txmomof6 on October 15, 2012 at 11:34 AM

As it should. Imagine if MSM actually covered the story. That number would be a lot higher than 51%.

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 11:40 AM

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:18 AM

You may not realize this, but you just outed him.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Not surprised..

He sounds like every single wastoid I ever read over there.. the commenters who collect badges like super champion awesome commenter for having made their 10,000th comment..

as if the sheer number mattered to anyone.

I’m retired on a disability, but if my life was so empty that I collected merit badges at the self important left wing sites as they do, for nothing more than quantity of verbage.. I’d find a ledge to jump from..

He doesn’t seem to work.. at anything but trying to depress republicans… left wing sites don’t have trolls… they ban any opinion insufficiently left wing, so they don’t even have moderates.. a hundred Chriss Matthew spittle fleckers in a circle.. pointing fingers at each other for not being fanatical enough, and a stupid freeper troll.

The biggest range of opinions I read are here.. most people here are pretty cool, easy to talk to.. and I learn alot.. professionals sharing their insights, veterans and active duty sharing their experience, libertarians keeping us honest, even if some of them go to the extreme. Homemakers, retirees, sharing anecdotes and the experience they have..

I’ve been tipped off on new music (to me) that I like.. new views..

The only drag is trolls like gummball trying desperately to depress and disinform,.. endlessly, mindlessly trying to sell.. stay home, stay home..

and what they do.. is make sure, we WILL go to the polls and go out of our way to get Mitt as many votes as possible.. the conservative way.. by informing folks..

opposed to Gummball mailing in endless requests for absentee ballots from the ACORN fraudulent voter lists..

It’ll be a cold day in Hell before trolls ever get us to drop out and quit.

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:46 AM

It’ll be a cold day in Hell before trolls ever get us to drop out and quit.

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:46 AM

I stand with you, my friend.

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 11:50 AM

THIS POLL IS OBVIOUSLY INCORRECT

Dave Rywall on October 15, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Brilliant!
I guess he told you, eh Ed?

JusDreamin on October 15, 2012 at 11:53 AM

THIS POLL IS OBVIOUSLY INCORRECT

Dave Rywall on October 15, 2012 at 11:31 AM

and if the poll was R+6…. with Romney way ahead..

if you bothered to comment, it would be the usual lefty tropes that no poll is correct if the democrat doesn’t lead..

D+9?

really?

turn out higher than 08?

Does anyone on planet lefty nutjob even have basic reasoning and math skills?

If they picked a reasonable sampling number.. fine.. but +9?..

You on the left cannot even see your own delusions.. when they are so blatantly in the open. Why not plus 12?.. plus 50?

if you’re going to fudge the numbers to create a turnout scenario that NOBODY believes will happen.. why not shoot for the moon?

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Love the “Mirror, Mirror” Spock pic.

vinceautmorire on October 15, 2012 at 11:56 AM

if you’re going to fudge the numbers to create a turnout scenario that NOBODY believes will happen.. why not shoot for the moon?

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:55 AM

It’s early Mark. And the moon better be ready to duck…Drywall is on the job!

JusDreamin on October 15, 2012 at 12:02 PM

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Well said, but having the cartoon character come in every day only encourages me in getting a new occupant in 1600 Pennsylvania.

He/she/it doesn’t understand that it will never flip one Hot Airian over to his side, we laugh, poke fun and pretty much tweak he/she/it until it melts away in search of some other poll to spin it’s narative so that axelgrease will continue to supplements it’s existence.

Yeah, HA has been a very good place to call home as a lurker for over 5 years and now as a poster for the last couple. Learned way more than I thought was possible at my age, but it’s been one heck of a ride.

The polls will never discourage me, even the D9+ ones, that works in our favor.

D-fusit on October 15, 2012 at 12:05 PM

I’ve said it before and will say it again, these donk +10 polls are not about curbing republican enthusiasm. These polls are a last ditch attempt to keep the democrat voter base floor from dropping out and killing all the down ticket races.

Romney 356/182 electoral, 54/45 popular.
Republicans 55/45 senate.
Republicans pick up 14-18 congressional seats.

jukin3 on October 15, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Love the “Mirror, Mirror” Spock pic.

vinceautmorire on October 15, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Nice episode.. made you consider the morality of pure logic…. Good Spock and evil Spock, both essentially the same, logic driven, made even a child consider the superior nature of morality over just pure logic.

I Lurved that show, I was 8 when it aired in 67.

A Taste of Armageddon was my favorite episode.

“We’re all savages with the blood of a million savage years on our hands, but, we’re not going to kill….. today”.

amazing what sticks with you at that age.

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 12:10 PM

Watching a fox news poll story live. Romney ahead by a couple. Missed the exact number. Steve Bousette claims Obama is losing the Orlando area. Bad for prez.

But its just one poll.

smoothsailing on October 15, 2012 at 12:30 PM

‘We Are in the Midst of a Huge Recovery’

- Michelle Antoinette Obama

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/michelle-obama-we-are-midst-huge-recovery

Economists: Unemployment Still 7.8 Percent in a Year

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/10/15/economists-unemployment-78-percent-year/

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Gallup daily tracking still has Romney 49-47 among likely voters.

Right Mover on October 15, 2012 at 1:20 PM

‘We Are in the Midst of a Huge Recovery’

- Michelle Antoinette Obama

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/michelle-obama-we-are-midst-huge-recovery

Economists: Unemployment Still 7.8 Percent in a Year

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/10/15/economists-unemployment-78-percent-year/

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 1:07 PM

What an idiot this woman this…guess she thinks that if she says it loud enough and repeats often enough anybody would believe it..at least if you are going to say something stupid, leave the heck out adjectives like ‘huge’, it only makes her look crazier and out of touch, if that was possible…

jimver on October 15, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Hey FloraDuh, Mark, et al. Just checking in as always as we’ve been busy over here in AFG during the summer. I hope all is well and I am glad Romney is looking good after all my posts over the last couple of years on him.

g2825m on October 15, 2012 at 2:19 PM

g2825m on October 15, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Busy?…. I bet,.. God look after you my friend.. we’re all on the same team.

mark81150 on October 15, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Actually we are right on the beginning of seeing the job market crash – if you go to heavy manufacturing all are scaling back – Cummins announcing layoffs, Caterpillar rolling layoffs, teir 1 and 2 suppliers seeing order boards shrinking 20 some percent. There is no employment growth so no one is going to notice anything about an improving economy – there is nothing Obama can do now, he can try to lie again through the BLS crap but that has pretty much been thoroughly debunked. A majority of people no longer believe anything coming from his campaign or the media.

Romney is going to have one hell of a problem on his hand because we are going into a full fledged recession number two – the first half of 2013 looks pretty bad, and now not too much anyone can do about it. How long it lasts will be up to Romney’s first 3 months.

Zomcon JEM on October 15, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Actually we are right on the beginning of seeing the job market crash – if you go to heavy manufacturing all are scaling back – Cummins announcing layoffs, Caterpillar rolling layoffs, teir 1 and 2 suppliers seeing order boards shrinking 20 some percent. There is no employment growth so no one is going to notice anything about an improving economy – there is nothing Obama can do now, he can try to lie again through the BLS crap but that has pretty much been thoroughly debunked. A majority of people no longer believe anything coming from his campaign or the media.

Romney is going to have one hell of a problem on his hand because we are going into a full fledged recession number two – the first half of 2013 looks pretty bad, and now not too much anyone can do about it. How long it lasts will be up to Romney’s first 3 months.

I fear what you say is true. I am the I.T. Admin of the largest fluorescent lamp factory in the world. Sales are in a slump due in part to new EPA regs that are going to require re-lamping with the new t8, t5 or LED lamps. And this will also require new fixtures as they are compatible with the more common t12 lamp ballast and fixture. So we get the added effect of a 5% workforce layoff on the t12 lines coupled with the forcing business to invest in new lighting during a recession because soon they will not be able to get the lamps to fit the old fixtures. A prime of the EPA stimulating the economy.

We are also having frequent production furloughs at an almost every two month frequency because of lagging sales of all lamp products.
Nothing says “stagnant economy” like the low demand for copper and lighting. Without either new building and expansion can be judged fairly easily. No need for light or wire no growth.

vinceautmorire on October 15, 2012 at 5:43 PM

they are compatible

(sic) should read they are not compatible.

vinceautmorire on October 15, 2012 at 5:44 PM

I am going to make three predications about the future. First, Romney is going to be elected. Second, the economy will start to get better even before Romney takes office. This will be used as “proof” by the left that their view on running government was the correct one and Romney will be “unjustly” getting credit for their turning the economy around. Third, the pollsters are going to have a “Dewey defeats Truman” moment after the election and have to make substantial changes to their methodology if they want to be a relevant predictor of American politics.

Romney will win not because Obama had a bad debate performance or even that Romney had a good debate performance. Romney will win because of the inherent flaws in the liberal mentality that ignores the real world and seeks a utopia. Obama is in over his head and has the liberal mentality that his “brilliance” and “moral superiority” means all should have gone well, refuses to acknowledge that Obama’s own actions are part of the problem and doesn’t have the real world experience to realize how the Chicago machine way of providing money to supporters through the government is not a solution but making the problem worse.

yetanotherjohn on October 15, 2012 at 10:51 AM

The harsh reality is Obama and his policies are paralyzing the U.S. economy. The media and Dems can fudge the numbers, but the economy and unemployment are really bad, and voters are exposed to reality. If Romney is elected I think you are correct in suggesting the economy will start to improve immediately, as businesses have their confidence restored. Just a few more weeks and the millstone of Obama may be off our necks.

talkingpoints on October 15, 2012 at 7:32 PM

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