Politico/GWU poll: Obama up 1, Romney up 2 in swing states

posted at 10:01 am on October 15, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Earlier, I wrote about the sampling issues with the WaPo/ABC poll, and the new Politico/GWU Battleground poll has its issues there, too, if less pronounced.  However, the poll shows a topline edge for Barack Obama, by one point nationally, but Mitt Romney up two points in the swing states.  More interestingly — and perhaps more worrisome for Team Obama — this poll also shows that voters are deciding that Romney isn’t the murderous vampire capitalist as the President’s campaign had painted him:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters puts Obama ahead of Romney 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical tie and the same as the week before. Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 percent to 48 percent.

Even as the head-to-head number held stubbornly steady for the past month, Romney improved his likability numbers. A slim majority, 51 percent, now views Romney favorably as a person, while 44 percent view him unfavorably.

The former Massachusetts governor had been underwater on this measure. In mid-September, 49 percent of respondents viewed him unfavorably. Going into the first presidential debate in Denver on Oct. 3, the electorate was evenly split 47 percent to 47 percent on what to make of Mitt.

Usually, favorability numbers for an opponent only have an indirect impact on a candidate.  Favorability is not necessarily a zero-sum game; both candidates can be likable to a voter, even when he chooses one over the other. In this case, though, Team Obama has made Romney’s likability an overt strategy in this election.  They spent all summer painting him as a Richie Rich who couldn’t possibly care about the middle class, a man who caused cancer and ate American jobs for breakfast while off-shoring them as a mid-afternoon snack.

That created a credibility risk for Obama, especially in the first debate.  As soon as voters found out that Romney wasn’t the boogeyman that Team Obama had built up in their campaign, the obvious conclusion is that Team Obama had lied about him.  That’s the risk of going so personal in a campaign, and it’s coming back to bite the Hope And Change candidate.

The internals are poor for Obama, too, especially with independents.  His job approval is -6 among unaffiliated voters, 45/51.  It’ss -16 among “ticket splitters,” 40/56.  On the re-elect numbers, the overall gender gap is, pardon the expression, neutered: Obama has a +11 among women at 54/43, and Romney has a +11 among men with the same split. Romney has an eight-point lead among independents, 49/41, and among “ticket splitters,” it goes to a +11, 50/39.  Romney also has a huge lead among seniors at 57/40 and a ten point lead among middle-aged voters (45-64) at 54/44.

The sample in this poll isn’t nearly as bad as the WaPo/ABC poll, but it’s still a little low on Republicans.  The D/R/I is 36/32/30, for a D+4, a defensible turnout model for the election.   It assumes that relative Democratic turnout will be slightly higher than 2010′s 35%, which is also defensible, but that relative Republican turnout will be the same as in 2008 at 32% — and that doesn’t seem likely, especially with the enthusiasm numbers we’re seeing from pollsters over the last couple of months.

Bottom line: if Romney’s winning seniors by 17 and independents by eight, he’s got more than a one-point lead in better position than one point down nationally.

Update: I misread the poll and initially had Romney up one in the headline and first paragraph.  I’ve corrected it, thanks to Justin Higgins in the comments.


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GUMBALLS!!!11

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Top line is Obama +1, not Romney +1 Ed.

JustinHiggins on October 15, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Death Spiral

faraway on October 15, 2012 at 10:04 AM

There is no doubt that Romney is above 50% it’s that the pollsters have to make their money. Ras also has Romney up by 1 on a pure weekend poll. He is above 50%

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Keep em coming. C’mon Gumbo, let’s here about the bad news.

Zomcon JEM on October 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

“A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters puts Obama ahead of Romney 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical tie and the same as the week before.”

So why does the headline say Romney is leading by 1?

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Much as I hate to be a party pooper, this poll has O up one, not Mitt.

Johnimus on October 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Up now, but not if Candy has her way…I believe she stated that the Romney pick of Ryan was a “death wish”…yeah, nothing biased about her.

They will have to re-enforce the stage to support her and her ego…

A horrible, horrible choice to be moderator, the only person worse would have been Tom Brokaw again…

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Romney closes the deal tomorrow night, he is a salesman and has closed huge deals in the past. The only deal Obama closed is hmm let me think, the Olympics

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Like Rush said, the pollsters may root for Obama, but they still want to have some credibility left after the election. The nearer they are to the election, the more honest the polls become.

swinia sutki on October 15, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Sorry about that — fixed the headline and first paragraph. I misread the Politico write-up.

Ed Morrissey on October 15, 2012 at 10:07 AM

This is why the right track/wrong track numbers are trending to Obama…

James Pethokoukis ‏@JimPethokoukis
After strong retail sales report, JPMorgan “now tracking real annualized GDP growth of 1.6% for Q3.”

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Politico keeps chugging like a nazi propaganda newspaper hahahahaha

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I don’t know how they get Obama 49 Romney 48. If you look at the internals it shows Obama 49 Romney 49

Romney/definitely ……………………….. 44%
Romney /probably …………………………. 4%
Romney/lean ……………………………… 1%

Obama/definitely …………………………. 43%
Obama/probably ……………………………. 5%
Obama/lean ……………………………….. 1%

Last I checked 44+4+1 = 49 and 43+5+1 = 49.

MFn G I M P on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I saw an article where the liberal’s last hope, NYT Nate Silver, describes himself as “terrified”. What kind of pollster who claims to be objective describes their-self as that. LOL at all the libs who post “BUT Nate Silver says Obama has a one-hundred ten percent chance of winning!”

Marcus on October 15, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Much as I hate to be a party pooper, this poll has O up one, not Mitt.

Johnimus on October 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Hate to be a party pooper on your analysis…but there is more than one statistic, and more than one trend…stick to your day job, assuming it’s flipping burgers.

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Yea 1.6 GDP is a real bar burner hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Real Clear Politics shows this poll Obama 49 Romney 48.

TarheelBen on October 15, 2012 at 10:09 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Didn’t you also say that the jobs report “atom bomb” would ruin the Romney campaign? What happened there?

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Has a democrat ever won nationally while losing independents?

bannor on October 15, 2012 at 10:10 AM

But Gumby…

Romney? Up 2 in Swing States?

The states that decide the election?

Ohmystarsandgarters!

See – if Barry leads +1 because he has deep support in NY, then wtf does it matter?

It’s like stating Romney is +5, with 55% of the surveyors are from Texas and Utah.

budfox on October 15, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Has a democrat ever won nationally while losing independents?

bannor on October 15, 2012 at 10:10 AM

I don’t think so and Romney is winning them by 16

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Yea 1.6 GDP is a real bar burner hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:09 AM

No kidding. That’s something to cheer (IF accurate)? The poll troll embarrasses himself with this garbage.

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 10:12 AM

budfox on October 15, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Right on

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:13 AM

This is why the right track/wrong track numbers are trending to Obama…

James Pethokoukis ‏@JimPethokoukis
After strong retail sales report, JPMorgan “now tracking real annualized GDP growth of 1.6% for Q3.”

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

1.6% GDP 4 years into his presidency…the excuse I needed to vote for Obama now../sarc

Static21 on October 15, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Bottom line: if Romney’s winning seniors by 17 and independents by eight, he’s got more than a one-point lead nationally.

Wouldn’t this also equate to your update?

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:14 AM

The RealClear Politics electoral map now shows the following states as “toss-up:”

Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania

I am pretty sure they were all “lean Obama” during most of the past six months.

Dextrous on October 15, 2012 at 10:14 AM

When you lose pier Morgan you lose the election :)

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:15 AM

A word of forewarning here. The polling in swing states depends mightily upon which states are considered “battleground”. Indiana, NC, and Missouri, or Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania?

Archivarix on October 15, 2012 at 10:16 AM

grumpyandhoaxy on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

1,6%????

Wow, Ill vote for Obummer now. How could I resist? And if we let California secede, he has even <8% UE numbers to brag about!

Valkyriepundit on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

And the RCP average is now tied at 47. Romney’s lead was short-lived.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I you throw a couple of yellow feathers on Candy, you end up with a really big bird…and that will be a problem tomorrow night.

How they ever allowed her to be chosen…how on earth of all the foolish choices, Candy Crowley…good grief.

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

How are you a conservative voter again?

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Romney closes the deal tomorrow night, he is a salesman and has closed huge deals in the past. The only deal Obama closed is hmm let me think, the Olympics

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I hate to be the wet blanket but you are wrong. The MSM will double down on the idea that Obama staged a comeback with the second debate. The spin room will be filled with Democrats saying stuff like-

“I always knew the President was brilliant but he really knocked it out of the park tonight. Clearly a game-changer of a debate for the President.”

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Romney also has a huge lead among seniors at 57/40 and a ten point lead among middle-aged voters (45-64) at 54/44.

The sample in this poll isn’t nearly as bad as the WaPo/ABC poll, but it’s still a little low on Republicans. The D/R/I is 36/32/30, for a D+4, a defensible turnout model for the election.

That’s game, set, match if the poll is accurate. Those two groups are gonna be the ones who show up in droves to vote. If Obama is depending on high turnout amongst the young’uns to carry him over the finish line, he’s in for a rude awakening. And the sample while not laughable like WaPo/ABC is perhaps a little too optimistic. I think D+2 or 3 at best is what we’ll see on Election Day. And that seems unlikely after Romney’s performance at the first debate.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM

How are you a conservative voter again?

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

The same way that Sandra Fluke is a chaste virgin.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:19 AM

And the RCP average is now tied at 47. Romney’s lead was short-lived.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Gumby when Romney wins I want you to know that the media has lied to you, they lied and lied and lied, then what are you going to do.

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:19 AM

I saw an article where the liberal’s last hope, NYT Nate Silver, describes himself as “terrified”. What kind of pollster who claims to be objective describes their-self as that. LOL at all the libs who post “BUT Nate Silver says Obama has a one-hundred ten percent chance of winning!”

Marcus on October 15, 2012 at 10:09 AM

From Nate’s article this morning.

There have been plenty of elections before when the outcome was highly uncertain down the stretch run or on Election Day itself. But I am not sure that there has been one where different types of polls pointed in opposite directions. Anyone in my business who is not a bit terrified by this set of facts is either lying to himself — or he doesn’t know what he’s doing. Source

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Wouldn’t this also equate to your update?

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Yes, it does — thanks, I missed that, too. More coffee, stat!

Ed Morrissey on October 15, 2012 at 10:20 AM

I hate to be the wet blanket but you are wrong. The MSM will double down on the idea that Obama staged a comeback with the second debate. The spin room will be filled with Democrats saying stuff like-

“I always knew the President was brilliant but he really knocked it out of the park tonight. Clearly a game-changer of a debate for the President.”

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM

That all depends on Obama’s performance. It’s not like they weren’t prepared to declare the race over after the first debate. It’s just that no sane person(not so fast, Stephanie Cutter) could spin that debacle in Obama’s favor.

And a Bite Me-style debate might not be enough either. Obama come out and just interrupt Mitt while fear-mongering and lying and expect that to turn the tables.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Nope anyone who has to cram for a debate doesn’t even know his own policies hahaha. Romney is a salesman, he will sell and close

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:21 AM

And the RCP average is now tied at 47. Romney’s lead was short-lived.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

HAHAHHAHA!!!
Florida is Romney’s, North Carolina is Romney’s, Virginia is Romney’s, all of those were leaning to Obama just a few weeks ago…

Your desperation cracks me up…look at the national favorbility, Romney has Obama by 6 points. You can take all the polls you want, people vote for whom they like, whom they trust…and every poll now has Romney leading in that vital statistic.

Nobody know how many Republicans or dems will show up at the voting booth, so the weighted averages are not accurate…but they do know how many will show up liking and trusting Romney more.

Adios Obama…hasta la vista baby…

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:22 AM

If Romney wins a a majority of the swing states, doesn’t he win? Especially if he wins a little more than half of the high EV states?

mwbri on October 15, 2012 at 10:22 AM

If you consider “ticket splitters” to be independents than Romney is up in the 8-11 range among independent voters. Add in the majority of undecideds for Romney and Obama’s not looking too robust right now.

eyedoc on October 15, 2012 at 10:22 AM

After strong retail sales report, JPMorgan “now tracking real annualized GDP growth of 1.6% for Q3.”

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

You’re seriously playing up a 1.6% GDP rate for Q3? That’s barely above a recession.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 10:23 AM

That all depends on Obama’s performance. It’s not like they weren’t prepared to declare the race over after the first debate. It’s just that no sane person(not so fast, Stephanie Cutter) could spin that debacle in Obama’s favor.

And a Bite Me-style debate might not be enough either. Obama come out and just interrupt Mitt while fear-mongering and lying and expect that to turn the tables.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Once he runs out of talking points and has no facts, it’s over. Then the question the media will spin is does Obama really want it? Just to hide his little intelligence he has

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:23 AM

How are you a conservative voter again?

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

He didn’t know how to spell ‘constipated’, as in full of s#it.

Rio Linda Refugee on October 15, 2012 at 10:24 AM

New ARG polls:

Romney leading by 1% in Virginia
Tied with Obama in Iowa.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

sentinelrules on October 15, 2012 at 10:25 AM

How are you a conservative voter again?

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I’ve asked that several times. This poster is ruining the site period. I wish Ed/AP would do something.

gophergirl on October 15, 2012 at 10:25 AM

If Romney wins a a majority of the swing states, doesn’t he win? Especially if he wins a little more than half of the high EV states?

mwbri on October 15, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Depends on the states. I think it’s safe to pencil in North Carolina and Indiana in the GOP column. The next key states are Florida and Virginia. The former is looking very good for Romney right now. The latter has improved considerably over the last week. If he takes those two, it’s down to O-I-H-O and one other state. Even one as EV-starved as New Hampshire would be enough to get him to 270(assuming he regains that single EV in Nebraska).

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 10:26 AM

THe REAL poll in 22 days will show how screwed up these biased polls are, and will hopefully put some people out of business…

Khun Joe on October 15, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Months ago, the dems were running around saying you because of the divided country, you have to win the independents, independents will decide the election, of course they were ahead substantially with independents.

Independents were the pathway to the election…now Romney is leading them by 16%…

Figure it out, if the Republicans and dems are about equal in numbers, plus or minus a few % depending on the issues…what effect does 25% of the voters have? If that 25% is heavily in favor of one or the other, doesn’t that make it a no-brainer as to who is in control??

Yeah, Obama will win NY, Ca, huge numbers…but the rest of the country is Romney’s for the taking…just ask the independents…

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I find it highlarious all the monies spent by team Obama this summer wasted

Liar!

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Big Bird

forest on October 15, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I’m getting a headache. If Romney is getting independents, women, hispanics, middle class voters much greater degree than McCain did in 2008. How is down by one versus Obama?

Oil Can on October 15, 2012 at 10:28 AM

You’re seriously playing up a 1.6% GDP rate for Q3? That’s barely above a recession.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 10:23 AM

They think 1/6% and 7.9% unemployment are winning numbers…that is what you call “bottom feeders”, that is how desperate liberals are…

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:29 AM

That all depends on Obama’s performance. It’s not like they weren’t prepared to declare the race over after the first debate. It’s just that no sane person(not so fast, Stephanie Cutter) could spin that debacle in Obama’s favor.

And a Bite Me-style debate might not be enough either. Obama come out and just interrupt Mitt while fear-mongering and lying and expect that to turn the tables.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Over the weekend, I saw clips of the town hall debate between Obama and McCain in 2008. Obama’s style then was to simply ignore McCain and spew all the nasty things about him he said on the campaign. At one point he even referred to his opponent sitting behind him as “that one.” I would suggest that he will do the same thing this time around but I don’t think that it will have the same effect that it had four years ago.

Nope anyone who has to cram for a debate doesn’t even know his own policies hahaha. Romney is a salesman, he will sell and close

Conservative4ev on October 15, 2012 at 10:21 AM

It’s not about substance, it is about the narrative. And also the moderator. The last two have been terrible so I have no hopes for this one being any less in the tank for Obama.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:31 AM

I find it highlarious all the monies spent by team Obama this summer wasted

Liar!

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 10:28 AM

A recent editorial stated that the negative effect of the first debate “wiped out the effect of $200 million in advertising spent over six months.”

Dextrous on October 15, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Obama edge with Latinos down to 44 points

ImpreMedia & Latino Decisions released the latest in a series of tracking polls today revealing support for President Obama slipped from 72% last week to 67% this week, suggesting that his debate performance also led some Latino voters to re-evaluate the President.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I you throw a couple of yellow feathers on Candy, you end up with a really big bird…and that will be a problem tomorrow night.

How they ever allowed her to be chosen…how on earth of all the foolish choices, Candy Crowley…good grief.

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Surprise surprise. neither campaign is happy with Candy “of course you are” Crowley.

http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/14/moderator-role-under-scrutiny-before-the-debate/

Brat on October 15, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I’ve asked that several times. This poster is ruining the site period. I wish Ed/AP would do something.

gophergirl on October 15, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Me too. It’s beyond ridiculous at this point.

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 10:33 AM

And also the moderator. The last two have been terrible so I have no hopes for this one being any less in the tank for Obama.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Wise move. Have you seen today’s DRUDGE?

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 10:34 AM

They think 1/6% and 7.9% unemployment are winning numbers…that is what you call “bottom feeders”, that is how desperate liberals are…

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Considering what the numbers really are (pre-manipulation), these are “winning numbers” within what they can get away with. A month out from the election and suddenly we have massive drops in unemployment and massive increases in consumer confidence and we are supposed to believe they are true? Lot of desperate commies out there.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Didn’t you also say that the jobs report “atom bomb” would ruin the Romney campaign? What happened there?

wargamer6 on October 15, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Yeah, GDP is just the new hotness (despite the horrible numbers). It has to have something to hold on to. And I agree, he/she/it has ruined this site. We can’t have rational discussions without this person dropping atomic bombs of idiocy in every thread.

ShadowsPawn on October 15, 2012 at 10:35 AM

If these polls are anywhere NEAR accurate,this country is finished…with or without Romney winning.

Cleombrotus on October 15, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Yep. The swing states he wins is very important. I am also pointing out that “the national poll” does not matter if Mitt comes one strong in the swing states.

mwbri on October 15, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Surprise surprise. neither campaign is happy with Candy “of course you are” Crowley.

http://thepage.time.com/2012/10/14/moderator-role-under-scrutiny-before-the-debate/

Brat on October 15, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I don’t understand why the moderator wouldn’t be bound by the agreement made between BOTH campaigns and the commission. Raddatz was god-awful, in part because she inserted herself too much into the debate and treated it as an interview with her instead of a discussion between the candidates. Crowley seems to think she should do the same, I’m sure in an effort to try and sandbag Romney.

I’m not looking forward to the debate tomorrow. I think we’re in for incredibly biased questions from voters and another hostile moderator. It’ll be more like 3 against one.

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Me too. It’s beyond ridiculous at this point.

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Every thread is ruined. You can’t have a decent conversation anymore.

gophergirl on October 15, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I am also pointing out that “the national poll” does not matter if Mitt comes one strong in the swing states.

mwbri on October 15, 2012 at 10:36 AM

True since we do not elect our leaders by popular vote.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:39 AM

O/T but worth noting – Is it just me or does that awful pic of Candy Crowley on the Drudge page make her look uncannily like Sam Kinison in drag?

ManlyRash on October 15, 2012 at 10:40 AM

After strong retail sales report, JPMorgan “now tracking real annualized GDP growth of 1.6% for Q3.”

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

56% of Consumers and Investors Say U.S. In A Recession

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Ras: “Nationally, Romney has had a slight lead or been tied on nine of the past 10 days. Before that, Obama had been ahead or tied for 16 consecutive days.”

Currently, 32% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11 (see trends).

In 2008, we showed virtually no change during the final 40 days of the campaign. Then-candidate Obama was between 50% and 52% in our polling every single day. He generally held a five- or six-point lead, occasionally bouncing up to an eight-point advantage and only once falling below a four point-lead.

During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout. Still, all indications so far for Election 2012 suggest that Republicans are more engaged and more likely to turn out.

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 47%
Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 47%
Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 47%

Obama’s approval rating: 48% Approve – 51% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:42 AM

A recent editorial stated that the negative effect of the first debate “wiped out the effect of $200 million in advertising spent over six months.”

Dextrous on October 15, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Not even a blip on the radar from the guy who wiped out trillions of public dollars on “shovel ready” projects in half that time. But his friends are coincidentally that much more wealthy including the guy that benefited from the increase in Obamaphone funds.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 10:42 AM

O/T but worth noting – Is it just me or does that awful pic of Candy Crowley on the Drudge page make her look uncannily like Sam Kinison in drag?

ManlyRash on October 15, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Ha! You’re right, she does.

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 10:43 AM

I think we’re in for incredibly biased questions from voters and another hostile moderator. It’ll be more like 3 against one.

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 10:38 AM

She was requesting questions on Twitter this morning. She will be the one to determine which questions will be asked and in what order.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 10:44 AM

O/T but worth noting – Is it just me or does that awful pic of Candy Crowley on the Drudge page make her look uncannily like Sam Kinison in drag?

ManlyRash on October 15, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Say it! SAY IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIT!!!

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Strong retail sales report out today.

GDP looking to rebound in Q3

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Let’s look at the headlines on CNBC (not even Fox Business):

* Retail Posts Rise on Boost From Surging Gas, Auto Sales

* Stocks Pare Gains as Nasdaq Dips; Citi Up 4%

* US Business Inventories Rise, Top Estimates

* Citi Profit Falls but Tops Estimates; Shares Move Higher

* High-Speed Trading No Longer Hurtling Forward

* Switzerland Prepares Army for Euro Zone Fallout

* Mark Mobius: Global Bull Market ‘Will Continue’ (‘cuz it’s fueled by QInfinity, which Bernanke claims is good for the world economy — sure, if you are part of the 1%. It strips the rest of the people of both their wealth through devaluation and purchasing power, as well as retards savings by keeping interest rates artificially low)

* Chinese Exporters: Situation ‘Already Worse Than 2008′

* Why Aren’t Companies Investing?

* Jury Out on Negative Earnings Growth

* ‘What Me Worry?’ Answer May Be ‘Yes’

* Wall Street Warns: Solve ‘Fiscal Cliff’!

* Spain Bailout Request Could Come in November

* Is It Time to Get Off China’s Growth ‘Drug?’

* Multinationals Buy Up ‘Organic’ Food Firms

* Employees ‘Filled With Anxieties’

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 10:46 AM

ManlyRash on October 15, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Now that you mention it…

We’ll know tomorrow night, if she starts screaming, “Say it! Say it!”

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Excellent dextra

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 10:48 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012

.
J U S T
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C O N S T A N T
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D I A R R H E A…!!!

KOOLAID2 on October 15, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I have been canvasing, a knock and talk, for Republicans in NW Ohio. I always plug Romney at least once prior to leaving. I know who are Dems, Reps, and Indies. I have found out that most Dems are afraid to to declare their vote. One union worker told me this Saturday that 1 and 2 union workers will vote for Romney. Many union workers are just afraid to state their Romney/Ryan preference, e.g., risk getting blackballed if union leadership finds out. I believe the polls in Ohio are not correct, that Ohio is very much for Romney. This is what happens when union threat with poor representation occurs by union management. I find unions acceptable, there needs to be true labor representation, but current union leadership being in bed with the Dems is an American tragedy. Union membership needs to speak up. Sooner is always better than later. SgtPete

SgtPete on October 15, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I’m going to react organically to what’s happening.

In other words, Crowley is going to put Mitt in his place because she will be looking through a liberals eyes…

“Tell me Mitt, how many people died because of your decisions at Bain…and as a counter president Obama, how many lives have you saved with your exceptional piece of legislation named after you, ObamaCare, the program who will save my mother and all seniors, instead of killing them as Mitt and the rest of his companies have…”

Mitt you have 90 seconds to answer, President Obama…take your time, it’s a complex question and you need to time to develop your answer…

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 10:55 AM

She was requesting questions on Twitter this morning. She will be the one to determine which questions will be asked and in what order.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I don’t mind them clearing questions beforehand, but I think it’s clear she’ll choose ones hostile to Romney and “direct the conversation” accordingly, as well. We’ll get things like, ‘Governor Romney, I’m a single mom struggling to make ends meet. I’ve had to use gov’t assistance, and don’t consider myself a victim as you said. How do I know you’ll look out for me?’.

changer1701 on October 15, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Surprise surprise. neither campaign is happy with Candy “of course you are” Crowley.

Obama’s terrified Crowley might ask some kind of a follow up question because the follow up questions might not have been leaked to him beforehand.

eyedoc on October 15, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Obama’s terrified Crowley might ask some kind of a follow up question because the follow up questions might not have been leaked to him beforehand.

eyedoc on October 15, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Correct. Plus, CNN is on 0bama’s “I’m mad at you” list over Amb. Stevens journal and now Piers Morgan is even for Romney.

Brat on October 15, 2012 at 11:14 AM

From now on can we all please either ignore the poll troll or reply with “Go Away”.

txhsmom on October 15, 2012 at 11:30 AM

And the RCP average is now tied at 47. Romney’s lead was short-lived.

gumbyandpokey on October 15, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Man, at what point are you going to realize that you are being laughed at for being so extremely stupid… If Obama is not going to be 4+ points in these very biased poll then he is certain to lose the elections…

mnjg on October 15, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Sorry, I don’t care what kind of BS numbers anyone pulls out of their ass for Ohio, if Romney is truly ahead with both seniors and independents by double digits, then this thing is OVER.

spinach.chin on October 15, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Last I checked 44+4+1 = 49 and 43+5+1 = 49.

MFn G I M P on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

The fractions are not provided thus the difference.

In this case it could well add up to 48 and 49. Just means Obama was on the high end of those three numbers Romney on the low end.

Steveangell on October 15, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Last I checked 44+4+1 = 49 and 43+5+1 = 49.

MFn G I M P on October 15, 2012 at 10:08 AM

To make this more clear.

43.6 + 3.7 + .9 = 48.2

Have no idea the actual numbers. But this shows how you get a number one less when adding three numbers together.

Steveangell on October 15, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Party like it’s 1980. Carter was ahead in the media polls by 5% with three weeks remaining. Obama isn’t doing nearly as well (with more disingenuously weighted polling) as Jimmah, even against Romney, who is certainly no Ronald Reagan.

FL, PA, OH, VA, WI, WV

Time to wake up the undecideds in those states, and finish this.

Freelancer on October 15, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Nate Silver is “terrified” because he understands a fundamental truth about polls — they ALWAYS overstate the strength of the democrat candidate. As yourself: What is the last election anywhere where the democrat came in with an actual vote percentage higher than the polls suggested? It simply does not happen. Ever. It happens with Republicans all the time, though, so if Zero is within one point of Romney nationally or in any swing state, it means he’s actually 4-5 points behind, and he’s going to lose. Nate Silver knows this, thus he’s “terrified.”

Rational Thought on October 15, 2012 at 3:45 PM