Chuck Todd: We’re seeing a structural change in the race toward Romney

posted at 12:01 pm on October 15, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Bear in mind that Chuck Todd is using the WaPo/ABC poll from this morning for part of his analysis, and you can see just how bad things are going for Team Obama.   While I agree with Todd on the momentum shift, I’m not as sure it’s recent, but I do think the debate was indeed the big inflection point for the toplines of the polls.  Even before that debate, Mitt Romney routinely led among independents in polling outside the margin of error — and in a cycle where Republican enthusiasm outstrips that of the Democrats, that’s a powerful indicator how the race is going:

The Palm Beach Post notes that even Democratic pollsters are seeing post-debate momentum shift toward Romney:

new Florida poll by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Mitt Romney edging President Obama in Florida by a 49-to-48 percent margin — a net gain of five points for the Republican nominee since a PPP poll in late September showed Obama with a 50-to-46 percent edge.

The poll shows independent voters breaking toward Romney since the end of September. Romney leads 51-to-43 percent among independents in PPP’s survey of 791 likely voters conducted Friday through Sunday. The poll has a 3.4 percent margin of error. Obama held a 51-to-40 lead among independents a few weeks ago, according to PPP.

“Mitt Romney has the momentum after his strong debate performance last week, but Barack Obama’s still very much in it,” says PPP President Dean Debnam.

I don’t think that Obama has lost the election yet, but there is only three weeks to go now.  This is when preference cascades begin to materialize, and usually away from the incumbent, who has had nearly four years to make the case for re-election.  Like Todd, I don’t think the subsequent debates are going to make much difference.  The key was always going to be the first debate, and whether Romney could make himself an acceptable alternative, and he succeeded far beyond anyone’s predictions.

Update: Reader Justin L says I missed Todd’s point about the debate:

In your Chuck Todd article you mistake which debates he’s talking about; watch the clip again–he’s not saying Obama can’t make it up, he’s saying IF Romney wins the debate tomorrow, Obama will not be able to make it up in the third debate.

Justin’s right; I misunderstood Todd to mean either of the next two debates.  I don’t think either candidate will have much room to move the needle tomorrow night, but that will be my topic for tomorrow’s column.


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If every demo group is trending to Romney compared to 2008 election, then why do the polls show Romney down 1?

Plus, Romney now has to debate the President and moderator.

Oil Can on October 15, 2012 at 12:04 PM

I wonder if Scooter’s rented the U-Haul, yet?

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Like Todd, I don’t think the subsequent debates are going to make much difference.

Oh, they could. They could cement Romney’s lead.

Doughboy on October 15, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Romney: 49.7, E. Votes: 295

Obama: 42.5, E. Votes: 122

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 12:06 PM

I hope so. Romney at the very least must stay true to himself and keep the same steady tone and outlook – if merely to present a tonal counterpoint to Obama’s expected swaying from extreme to extreme. Or not swaying and keeping the odd, disengaged person from the last debate.

Maybe it’s a prevent defense, but showing the same steady person from the first debate is going to be the clincher, no matter what Obama does.

JeffWeimer on October 15, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Little Chucky’s not going down with the ship of fools. He’ll come out with a book in early 2013 called “Seeking Credibility”.

Rovin on October 15, 2012 at 12:07 PM

40% of Americans self identify as conservative while only 20% self identify as liberal. We then should start with a significant built-in advantage. The fact that Obama and Romney are virtually tied confuses the heck out of me. Who are the 30% above his liberal base that are up porting him? What is their motivation?

I don’t believe any polls, not even those favoring Romney. I think he will by 5+ points.

Charlemagne on October 15, 2012 at 12:07 PM

F. Chuck is worried. Notice his blinks and long pauses of closed eyes. He won’t be able to open them on election night.

Brat on October 15, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Fchuck- What do you mean by stuctural?

Just say it already you propagandist…..

The voters see through the LSM smoke and mirrors with this HOAX.

FlaMurph on October 15, 2012 at 12:08 PM

If every demo group is trending to Romney compared to 2008 election, then why do the polls show Romney down 1?

Plus, Romney now has to debate the President and moderator.

Oil Can on October 15, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Because just about every poll has unrealistic party splits. D+6 or worse. 2008 was the best Dems will ever do, D+7, and they ain’t gonna repeat that. I put the split currently at R+3, but Dems won’t do better then D+2 this time around.

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Notice his blinks and long pauses of closed eyes.

He does that a lot. Usually when it’s remembering what Valerie Jarrett told him to say.

I can’t BELIEVE Conservative sites playing this puke, when you know he’s going to shill like a maniac three seconds after closing tomorrow night.

Marcus on October 15, 2012 at 12:11 PM

I wonder if Scooter’s rented the U-Haul, yet?

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 12:05 PM

He’ll probably trash the inside of the White House before he leaves, like a lot of the people who got foreclosed on did here in Vegas.

SailorMark on October 15, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Obama is the incestual child of the media and the DNC.

Schadenfreude on October 15, 2012 at 12:11 PM

The structural shift long since was obvious. This, after all, is a President who didn’t break above 46% approval in Gallup until Axelrod forced a methodology change. This is a President who beat McCain, a tremendously weak candidate anyway, by succeeding at the margin (rousing up the youth vote to record levels, pulling hugely enthusiastic numbers out of the traditional Democrat coalition and persuading centrists to roll the dice), and this is a year where all of those dynamics are very different.

But one structural thing is newly different, and that is that even partisan NBC hacks are noticing the momentum Romney has and isn’t afraid to say it even on MSNBC. That is different.

MTF on October 15, 2012 at 12:13 PM

The tectonic shift continues.

More and more folks are coming out to say, “it’s okay (i.e. not racist) to vote against the president.”

It’s simply a matter of how long they can hide the decline.

And whether they can keep it seem close enough to make a plausible claim for a stolen election, after which the riots can begin.

Droopy on October 15, 2012 at 12:13 PM

I am praying and crossing fingers and toes for tomorrow’s debate as I did for the past 2 of them. It disturbs me to know that due to Obama’s horrific showing in Debate 1 that Romney will have to counter both Obama and MSM’s Candy Crowley.

But I am also hopeful. The crowds around Romney/Ryan are getting bigger. The R/R message is steady and strong and I think Romney is strong enough to plow through. Just over 3 weeks and counting!!

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Contribute today:
https://www.mittromney.com/donate

albill on October 15, 2012 at 12:14 PM

If Mitt can come out of Tuesday debate with a solid win, it might be game over for Obama. Mitt won’t get the same blowout win he got before, but a solid win should do it.

Zaggs on October 15, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Will definitely be tuning into msdnc, when things start looking good for mitt on the sixth

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 12:17 PM

I haven’t watched the video…….are there tears?

Cindy Munford on October 15, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Guaranteed sailor mark

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 12:18 PM

The tectonic shift continues.

Droopy on October 15, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Or, as BO would say, “It’s a teutonic shift….” ;)

Cody1991 on October 15, 2012 at 12:21 PM

They’re not going to be addressing each other in this debate. I consider this one mostly a vacation, a pause before the third debate. Obama will shine, because, for some reason, people seem to like it when he just talks on his own, about vague nonsense.

Paul-Cincy on October 15, 2012 at 12:21 PM

“If this gets any worse, we’re going to have to stop lying for you, big guy.”

forest on October 15, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Will definitely be tuning into msdnc, when things start looking good for mitt on the sixth

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 12:17 PM

It will be so much more fun than after the first debate! lol

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 12:22 PM

This election does not hinge on the debates – All Romney and Ryan had to do was prove (to people who haven’t been paying attention) that they are competent and have a plan, which they did in their respective (first/only) debates. obama can “WIN”, by being the aggressor (angry-drunk-Biden-style) in the next two debates, and it won’t make any difference – the trajectory of the race will not change in the next 21 days. Romney will continue to gain and obama will continue to hemorrhage support.

Pork-Chop on October 15, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Zaggs on October 15, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Not sure if it is game over, but definitely intrade and other places bets will start showing obama at under 50%. And probably show Mitt going above obama

ConservativePartyNow on October 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

There’s being confident and then there’s wishful thinking. Bombo with 122 EVs?? Cal/55, NY 29.Ill.20. NJ 15,Hawaii 3. That’s 122 in just five states.

xkaydet65 on October 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

I wonder if Scooter’s rented the U-Haul, yet?

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Unfortunately the taxpayers will be paying the tab. But after Obama has already pissed away like 14 trillion dollars, what the hey.

eyedoc on October 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

How in the heck can Obama have a good debate at all with the scandal of Benghazi hanging over him?

The coverup gets worse and worse. What is he going to say to rebut the fact that he is either incompetent or a complete liar?

PattyJ on October 15, 2012 at 12:24 PM

I am praying and crossing fingers and toes for tomorrow’s debate as I did for the past 2 of them… The R/R message is steady and strong and I think Romney is strong enough to plow through. Just over 3 weeks and counting!!

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 12:13 PM

I believe that 0bama’s professed intent to be aggressive will simply come off as desperation to anyone outside of his base.

Also, it was not due to over-confidence that he was not prepared for the 1st debate. His heart is no longer in it.

One final point regarding “undecideds”: I have to think that the IQ average of those who truly remain as “undecided” must be decidedly sub-triple-digit. I really don’t want to hear what anyone of them think about the debate. (Ya hear me, Luntz?)

Droopy on October 15, 2012 at 12:25 PM

If Mitt can come out of Tuesday debate with a solid win, it might be game over for Obama

Well, yes, and then we’ll see down-ballot Ds separate themselves further from Obama — increases our chances of capturing the Senate

Major risk w Town Hall format: some idiot undecided voter mangles a question, says “deficit” when they meant “debt,” by way of example, then the GOP candidate answers the wrong question; and of course the questionner, abetted by the MSM, claims the GOP candidate was “non-responsive” and “clearly out of touch.”

I think Romney should hit Obama hard on leadership, and failure to take responsibility for anything that occurred during his Administration. The way Hannity rattles off the excuses for the economy is very compelling; Obama has blamed ATMs, hurricanes, tsunami, nuclear incident in Japan, Europe, George Bush, big banks, Las Vegas, etc

matthew8787 on October 15, 2012 at 12:25 PM

Zaggs on October 15, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Not sure if it is game over, but definitely intrade and other places bets will start showing obama at under 50%. And probably show Mitt going above obama

ConservativePartyNow on October 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

However, if Mitt does as good as he did the first debate and obama does as bad as he did, I think the election could be over, and obama will start accusing Mitt of everything

ConservativePartyNow on October 15, 2012 at 12:25 PM

The coverup gets worse and worse. What is he going to say to rebut the fact that he is either incompetent or a complete liar?

Why are we getting no help from leaks at CIA or State? The Clintons cannot be happy about this.

matthew8787 on October 15, 2012 at 12:26 PM

OT
A women with a package was seen entering the White House this morning. Turned out to be a false alarm. It was just Ann Romney with drapery samples.

We’ll know the Obamas have reconciled themselves to defeat when Mooch has cases of spray paint delivered so she can tag every room.

Aviator on October 15, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Was this another hostage video..?

d1carter on October 15, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Sorry, not buying anything this toad tries to sell. F. Chuck is just moronic enough to think he’s playing some kind of jedi mind trick. I believe the polls showing Barry to be ahead are bogus, but I doubt if F. Chuck thinks they are.

BettyRuth on October 15, 2012 at 12:27 PM

non-Cuban Latinos moving towards Romney in Florida. Steve Bousquet Tallahassee Bureau Chief speaking on Happening Now

CoffeeLover on October 15, 2012 at 12:27 PM

I wonder if Scooter’s rented the U-Haul, yet?

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 12:05 PM
Unfortunately the taxpayers will be paying the tab. But after Obama has already pissed away like 14 trillion dollars, what the hey.

eyedoc on October 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

I think that the taxpayers will be on the hook for more than the cost of a U-haul, that is unless U-hauls can “drive” to Hawaii.

D-fusit on October 15, 2012 at 12:28 PM

There’s being confident and then there’s wishful thinking. Bombo with 122 EVs?? Cal/55, NY 29.Ill.20. NJ 15,Hawaii 3. That’s 122 in just five states.

xkaydet65 on October 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

This may sound dumb or very optimistic, but I am thinking that if Cal gets any closer, it will be in play. I already think that NJ is.
And if Cal gets in play, then it is over for obama.

ConservativePartyNow on October 15, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Chucky T seem to be trying to send a message with his eye blinks…anyone know Morse code?

d1carter on October 15, 2012 at 12:28 PM

1) Don’t. Stop. Praying.

2) Vote early, and vote often. (Learn from your enemies…)

turfmann on October 15, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Not sure if it is game over, but definitely intrade and other places bets will start showing obama at under 50%. And probably show Mitt going above obama

ConservativePartyNow on October 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

I’ve been reading a lot of InTrade forums lately. Most active traders there are actively and openly liberal. I’m playing there mostly for fun, couple of hundred here and there, and I’m still chewing myself for not going all-in when Romney shares were $1.20 a pop.

Archivarix on October 15, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Obama edge with Latinos down to 44 percentage points

ImpreMedia & Latino Decisions released the latest in a series of tracking polls today revealing support for President Obama slipped from 72% last week to 67% this week, suggesting that his debate performance also led some Latino voters to re-evaluate the President. Those who said they are certain to vote for Romney increased slightly from 20% last week to 23% this week. When asked how important the presidential debates are, 76% of all Latinos said a candidate’s performance in the presidential debate was important in how they evaluated a candidate.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 12:31 PM

In the eyes of the media, Obama has already won the next debate, merely for the fact that he’s shifting his focus and presentation.

GadsdenRattlers on October 15, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Unfortunately the taxpayers will be paying the tab.

eyedoc on October 15, 2012 at 12:23 PM

Money well spent. If he’d step down today, I’d chip in a few bucks just to speed things up.

BobMbx on October 15, 2012 at 12:32 PM

“There is NO structural change in the race toward Romney.”

- dumbygumbyandpokey, Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to the Assistant to Cairo Carney, Secretary of the Ministry of Truth

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 12:32 PM

If Mitt can come out of Tuesday debate with a solid win, it might be game over for Obama. Mitt won’t get the same blowout win he got before, but a solid win should do it.

Zaggs on October 15, 2012 at 12:16 PM

How does one win with a moderator like Candy-the Republican-ticket-looks-a-little-bit-almost-like-a-death-wish-Crowley(see headline on drudge and newsbusters transcript)…that woman is viciously liberal…now that she confessed that she would interject, good luck with that…Problem with this format anyways is that it’s hard to declare a clear winner, they are not debating each other really, they sit there, take questions from the audience and respond, pretty much what they do on the campaign trail…besides. It probably put Obama and his so called proessprial (more like BS artist) skills…but in thee e d, based o what exactly can one determine who won? They willboth answer the questions asked of them. Secondly, this format also means that Barkey won’t be pressed on isues like Benghazi, they will ask one general question from the public, or two, but how do you press him on details, like who, in his admin, knew what, when, etc…only follow up questions can do that…

jimver on October 15, 2012 at 12:32 PM

“Mitt Romney has the momentum after his strong debate performance last week, but Barack Obama’s still very much in it,” says PPP President Dean Debnam.

As I’ve been posting for about a year now, the media has a vested interest in the ‘horse race’ aspect of the Primary and General elections.

After “but Barack Obama’s still very much in it,” says PPP President Dean Debnam”, it appears that those teetering toward irrelevance are ‘trying too hard’.

socalcon on October 15, 2012 at 12:32 PM

What do think?

If Candy obviously tries to throw the debate, but Romney emerges strongly anyway… call off the last debate due to overwhelming media bias?

Not that Schieffer would ever… nevermind.

Droopy on October 15, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Baghdad Gumby for short.

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Welp, that’s about it. Time for that False Flag Terror Attack in order to shut down these elections that are getting out of control.

LoganSix on October 15, 2012 at 12:35 PM

This may sound dumb or very optimistic, but I am thinking that if Cal gets any closer, it will be in play. I already think that NJ is.
And if Cal gets in play, then it is over for obama.

ConservativePartyNow on October 15, 2012 at 12:28 PM

New Jersey is *not* close this time. It could be, possibly, with Christie staying home and Jindal as VP, but it isn’t. Menendez (Douche-NJ) is as popular with middle-class suburbanites as lung cancer, and he easily cracks 50% regardless.

Archivarix on October 15, 2012 at 12:35 PM

It should haveread ‘it will put obama with his professorial skills’ at an advantage that is…

jimver on October 15, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Chucky T seem to be trying to send a message with his eye blinks…anyone know Morse code?

d1carter on October 15, 2012 at 12:28 PM

I read it as “Please, Obama my love, get off of that golf course and prep for this debate. I don’t know how much longer I can carry your water and be able to lie tomorrow night about how great you are. So far I can only keep practicing “wow, the president clearly connected with the audience far better than Romney” (whether you do or not)”
But then again I don’t know Morse code.

Brat on October 15, 2012 at 12:37 PM

I wonder if Scooter’s rented the U-Haul, yet?

kingsjester on October 15, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Hey, remember when the Ikea furniture box (headed for the family quarters) strapped in the boot of one of the black White House limos was BREAKING NEWS?!?!?!

Not.Kidding.

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 12:37 PM

We hear every election that we need to get the independents and now that we solidly do there is still talk about how the race is close. Sorry I don’t see how hard core democrats beat a majority of independents and enthusiatic Republicans.

Conan on October 15, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Team Obama has promised that Obama will be ‘more aggressive’ in this townhall debate. I believe them.

Obama will talk over Romney and the moderator and, most likely, even those asking the questions. He will be rude to everyone involved.

The stage has been set for the Democrats to blame the entire fiasco on … the moderator, Candy Crowley. Both campaigns have complained about her statements leading into the debate. She’s said that she ‘won’t be a fly on the wall’ and indicated that she is prepared to press for answers on her own initiative at any point she chooses. She will not simply be a moderator, but a participant in the debate.

So, at the end of the day, when Obama has been rude and taken far more than his share of the time in the debate, talked over Romney’s answers and shouted down the moderator, his behavior will, once again, be attributed to ‘poor moderation’, placing the blame on Crowley just as the left allotted the blame to Lehrer in the first debate in defense of Obama’s dismal performance.

Fortunately, this debate carries significantly less weight in the mind of the electorate than the first debate, owing to it being third in the series, set in a ‘townhall style’ format rather than a formal format, the questions will come from the ‘audience’ and from a moderator who has already made it clear that she is partisan, and the topics are both foreign and domestic policy, rather than a focused, formal, well moderated debate.

Finally, the last debate, Oct. 22, is more important. It is A focused, formal debate format and will be strictly on issues of foreign policy. Its is also the last debate in the series and takes place 2 weeks before election day, Nov.6th. Obama cannot defend his record over the last four years, the debacle in the Middle East and North Africa,which includes Iran on the brink of developing nuclear capability, dismal trade agreements, China’s unanswered aggression in the South China Sea, his support of policies in the EU that are destroying the economies of our largest trade partners, and he has no clear plans for the next four years other than ‘finishing what we started’.

thatsafactjack on October 15, 2012 at 12:37 PM

liberal spin machine will go into full overdrive after the debate, and the independents and moderates will see straight through the lies

burserker on October 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Chuck Todd is a perfect representation of the Fifth Column Treasonous Media, and they are all a bunch of God Damned Liars who in a truly just world would only serve to test the tensile strength of Good Ole Stout Hemp Rope. Fifth Column Treasonous Media Hacks+Stout Hemp Rope+Streetlamps+some assembly required…

Joe Biden, Paul Ryan and Bibi’s “Red Line” time line.

SWalker on October 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

The problem Obama has in any non-telepromptered setting is that he has to make an effort to appear presidential and/or competent. He’s uncomfortable, unnatural, a fish out of water, and it’s glaring. Romney, on the other hand, doesn’t have to try very hard, if at all. I don’t expect to see much difference in their respective performances from the first debate, and it will solidify the perception of Romney as the competent, likable candidate.

On the other hand, if Obama goes on the attack, as is rumored, he risks appearing small and petty, and this will crater any chance at all.

TXUS on October 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

How in the heck can Obama have a good debate at all with the scandal of Benghazi hanging over him?

The coverup gets worse and worse. What is he going to say to rebut the fact that he is either incompetent or a complete liar?

PattyJ on October 15, 2012 at 12:24 PM

That is, provided Crowley allows any qustions on this topic to be asked. I’m expecting at least 3 questions about the 47% comment for each Benghazi question (if any).

Mitt should try to work it in to each answer he gives.

right of the dial on October 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Baghdad Gumby for short.

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Gaza Gumby?

“The Palestinians are victims of oppression. They are living in concentration camps — a Holocaust on par with Nazi Germany. They are a totally peaceful people, who want to live side-by-side, in peace, with Jews and the State of Israel. They would love for Jerusalem to continue to be the capitol of Israel and are 100% committed to the peace process and a two-state solution. They believe that the Middle East would be incomplete without Israel and Jews.

No, those are not mortars and shells being fired into Israel behind me. Those are just ‘students’ from our local high schools engaging in science lab experiments.”

- Gaza Gumby

lol

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 12:40 PM

:) coffeelover

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 12:40 PM

And I don’t believe Obamuh was ever as far ahead in the polls as they all claim he was, but ultimately these polls don’t mean squat.

stukinIL4now on October 15, 2012 at 12:41 PM

This is all just set-up for tonight’s scripted “comeback” for Obama. You watch, the deck will be as stacked against Romney as they can get away with. And if that doesn’t work, they’ll just call it a win for Obama anyway.

stefanite on October 15, 2012 at 12:41 PM

If Mitt can come out of Tuesday debate with a solid win, it might be game over for Obama. Mitt won’t get the same blowout win he got before, but a solid win should do it.

Zaggs on October 15, 2012 at 12:16 PM

I agree. There’s no way that Romney will duplicate the outcome of the first debate, because Obama presumably will show up this time. That said, I don’t see how Obama can turn the tables on Romney. If all Obama ends up is criticism of Romney while Romney offers commense solutions, independents are going to have even more reason to abandon U.S.S. Hope and Change.

I wish Romney would get off income taxes, and shift gears to Obamacare taxes. Point out how the tax on medical devices will kill the industry like the luxury tax killed the yacht-building industry in NE in the 1990s. Indeed, he should find out where Kerry had his yachts built. If out of country, zing Obama with that factoid. Romney should use every opportunity to bring the conversation back to energy and Obama’s green-energy pipedream failures. They are the classic failures that make independents realize what an idiot Obama is.

Finally, Romney should like R2 to the RMS Carpathia–after Inauguration Day, they’ll steam in to save any survivors of the Titanic (the U.S.S. Hope and Change).

BuckeyeSam on October 15, 2012 at 12:41 PM

When Obama dumps the “47%” onto Mitt, I hope he says it’s better than the 100% of Obama, 100% of dems is all he recognizes, no partisan efforts, 100% of the 585 congressman voted against his budget–twice…100% of dems voted for ObamaCare, and it took him literally months to sit down and talk with the Republican leadership…the fact is, Obama only represents 100% of the people who voted for him, who support him, and discards the rest of America.

Or…”President Obama, do you believe we have 57 states? Neither do I , but that is what you stated…you are the one who had the VP go out and say you have buried the middle class the past 3 years, you are the one who stated businessmen didn’t build it…you are the one who had Rice go out and spread misinformation about the attack where one of our Ambassadors and three brave men were murdered by terrorists…she was out spinning her stories while you were in Las Vegas…don’t tell me what I said, you should worry about what your people are saying about your administration…

right2bright on October 15, 2012 at 12:42 PM

El rushbo talking about chuckie now

cmsinaz on October 15, 2012 at 12:42 PM

The only way Odumbo beats Romney in this next debate is if he pulls an Al Capone and hits Romney in the back of the head with a baseball bat.

SWalker on October 15, 2012 at 12:44 PM

If this election is a 1% squeaker and you live in an urban area of typical demographics you’d better own a shotgun.

Mason on October 15, 2012 at 12:44 PM

I tend to agree that first debates matter most. It’s the first time you get to see both candidates together, and you only get to make one first impression.

Additionally, it looks like Obama is going to try to take an aggressive confrontational stance, in a debate forum that does not readily lend itself to confrontational debate. Not only does this seem like a bad fit for the forum and the candidate, but it indicates that they’re still trying to fire up the base. Firing up the base, in October, isn’t something a healthy campaign does. By this time candidates should be going after the center, and by spending a debate riling up the base the Obama campaign essentially cedes to the Romney campaign to snatch up independents.

Additionally, this exposes the Obama campaign to a big risk. If he goes after Romney mercilessly, while Romney instead plays the crowd, then Romney ends up looking like the nicer more empathetic of the two. If that happens, then not only is it over, we’ll be talking landslide territory.

WolvenOne on October 15, 2012 at 12:44 PM

then why do the polls show Romney down 1?

This is a D+9 poll.

RADIOONE on October 15, 2012 at 12:47 PM

right of the dial on October 15, 2012 at 12:39 PM

True, Mitt’s got to be prepared to debate her too.

PattyJ on October 15, 2012 at 12:47 PM

If this election is a 1% squeaker and you live in an urban area of typical demographics you’d better own a shotgun.

Mason on October 15, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Indeed.

Every time I hear William Devane (in that gold commercial) ask me, “What’s in your safe?”, I respond, “Lead.”

Droopy on October 15, 2012 at 12:48 PM

We need a rogerb quote here…

Kraken on October 15, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Last week wasn’t a good one for our moldable friend, and this week’s already looking worse.

Chuck Schick on October 15, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Indeed.

Every time I hear William Devane (in that gold commercial) ask me, “What’s in your safe?”, I respond, “Lead.”

Droopy on October 15, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Sigh, all of my weapons and ammo sank in a freak boating accident of the coast of Arizona… o_O

SWalker on October 15, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Sigh, all of my weapons and ammo sank in a freak boating accident of the coast of Arizona… o_O

SWalker on October 15, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Yes, yes! As did mine, too!

I meant to say, “Hypothetically…” ;-)

Droopy on October 15, 2012 at 12:52 PM

I think that people watched the first debate and simply remembered what a President is suppose to sound like. It has been four years, they had forgotten. There is a certain stature that any president should embrace, of either party. This guy has never had it.

I am going to go out on a limb here and state that Romney will in fact take the State of Michigan. I hope tomorrow night he explains to the American people that Mullaley saved FORD. The bailout of GM and Chrysler was indeed a bankruptcy. A bankruptcy run and organized by the federal government.

shar61 on October 15, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Romney: 49.7, E. Votes: 295

Obama: 42.5, E. Votes: 122

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 12:06 PM

..where? Link?

The War Planner on October 15, 2012 at 12:54 PM

An incumbent who’s stuck at 47%, is an incumbent who needs to find a new place to live.

Tater Salad on October 15, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Sigh, all of my weapons and ammo sank in a freak boating accident of the coast of Arizona… o_O

SWalker on October 15, 2012 at 12:50 PM

..massive flooding? Julian is under water?

The War Planner on October 15, 2012 at 12:55 PM

@LarrySabato

Ideal debate: candidates, no moderator, 90 mins, & police on standby to break up fights.

Flora Duh on October 15, 2012 at 12:59 PM

..where? Link?

The War Planner on October 15, 2012 at 12:54 PM

That’s my own analysis using existing polling data for each state. I readjust the polls for what looks like to me currently an R+3 election based upon historical voter registration numbers. Take it for what it’s worth: Just some dumb HA poster trying to readjust the polls because of their awful internals.

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 1:02 PM

And if Cal gets in play, then it is over for obama.

ConservativePartyNow on October 15, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Didn’t CA go to proportionate distribution of their electoral votes?

DanMan on October 15, 2012 at 1:04 PM

This may sound dumb or very optimistic, but I am thinking that if Cal gets any closer, it will be in play. I already think that NJ is.
And if Cal gets in play, then it is over for obama.

ConservativePartyNow on October 15, 2012 at 12:28 PM

I’ll be polite and say that you are overly optimistic about California. To be sure, the adoration will not be as apparent as in 2008 but the state is safe for the rat-eared coward. And I’ll be the first to say I’d be happy to be proven wrong but if Romney wins California then we’ve got a 1984-like landslide and I don’t think it will be that one-sided.

Happy Nomad on October 15, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Didn’t CA go to proportionate distribution of their electoral votes?

DanMan on October 15, 2012 at 1:04 PM

No. They passed a ridiculous law that many other states adopted that requires CA to award their electoral votes to whomever wins the national popular vote.

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 1:06 PM

‘We Are in the Midst of a Huge Recovery’

- Michelle Antoinette Obama

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/michelle-obama-we-are-midst-huge-recovery

Economists: Unemployment Still 7.8 Percent in a Year

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/10/15/economists-unemployment-78-percent-year/

Resist We Much on October 15, 2012 at 1:06 PM

IMHO Chuck Todd is a hack journalist who is more interested in make his own news then he is reporting it. Worse yet, he seems to think he’s smarter than everyone else watching the race.

The fact that he’s NBC’s lead political reporter tells you everything that’s wrong with the journalistic process.

EdmundBurke247 on October 15, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Or, as BO would say, “It’s a teutonic shift….” ;)

Cody1991 on October 15, 2012 at 12:21 PM

I forgot about that one. Another example of BO injecting race into the issue.

Finbar on October 15, 2012 at 1:10 PM

…only one person here cares about poles!

KOOLAID2 on October 15, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Are Jews shifting to Romney?

http://frontpagemag.com/2012/dgreenfield/romney-now-beating-obama-among-jewish-voters/

Pork-Chop on October 15, 2012 at 1:18 PM

F. Chuck is one of the few guys guys currently angling for “access” in the Romney administration. Look for more of these journoweenies in the next couple of weeks talking up a Romney win. They are thin on the ground now, but will become thicker as the direction of the election becomes ever more obvious.

Missy on October 15, 2012 at 1:21 PM

I don’t see how going on the attack and being aggressive is going to work any better for Obama in this debate than the last one. That’s what he pretty much did in the first one, he spent like half the debate going on about Romney’s “5 trillion tax cut”. In the end it didn’t hurt Romney and it just exposed that Obama has no plans of his own to grow the economy. Unless you consider “hiring more teachers” a plan.

My guess it’s just gonna be blame the Republicans, blame Congress, Romney is evil, blah blah for the whole 90 minutes.

tkyang99 on October 15, 2012 at 1:21 PM

No. They passed a ridiculous law that many other states adopted that requires CA to award their electoral votes to whomever wins the national popular vote.

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 1:06 PM

Not entirely true, the law they passed has a caveat to it, 2/3rd of all the states have to agree to that law before it goes into effect. They were hedging their bets on it.

SWalker on October 15, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Sigh, all of my weapons and ammo sank in a freak boating accident of the coast of Arizona… o_O

SWalker on October 15, 2012 at 12:50 PM

..massive flooding? Julian is under water?

The War Planner on October 15, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Wink wink, nod nod, say no more… ;p

SWalker on October 15, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Gallup daily tracking has Mitt leading 49-47 among likely voters.

Right Mover on October 15, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Not entirely true, the law they passed has a caveat to it, 2/3rd of all the states have to agree to that law before it goes into effect. They were hedging their bets on it.

SWalker on October 15, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Is it 2/3? I thought it was any number of states that are equal to or greater than 270 electoral votes.

NotCoach on October 15, 2012 at 1:27 PM

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