Too good to check: Romney leading among Hispanics in Florida?

posted at 2:31 pm on October 13, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Could Mitt Romney be riding a preference cascade in Florida that includes Hispanic voters?   A new survey  shows Barack Obama’s support rapidly eroding in a key Democratic constituency — and this isn’t a Republican internal poll, either:

An exclusive Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 statewide poll shows many Hispanic voters dropping their support for Obama.

Last month, 52 percent of Hispanic voters polled said they would vote for the president. That has now dropped to 44 percent.

Romney picked up some ground among Hispanics, from 43 percent to 46 percent. And the number of undecided Hispanic voters has doubled from 5 to 10 percent.

Here’s the graphic from the TB Times, which shows the dramatic shift:

A caveat is in order.  The report doesn’t include the poll data, so we can’t see the modeling, and it also doesn’t include the top-line number — which I assume the TB Times wants to hold for tomorrow.  However, the poll comes from the respected Mason-Dixon polling firm, which means that this is no GOP-consultancy push poll, and has to be taken with some seriousness.

That makes this very bad news for Obama.  It’s possible for Mitt Romney to win Florida without winning Hispanics, but it’s got to be nearly impossible for a Democrat to do it.  And a nine-point drop in one poll series is a very significant change, especially in a single month.  With this kind of movement in this demographic, I’m assuming that Mason-Dixon will be reporting something pretty positive for Mitt Romney, who has had leads in the latest Florida polling this month.

And that prompts another question — if indeed Hispanics are moving away from Obama in Florida, what are they doing in other states?

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Goodness, I posted this poll at least 3 times yesterday.

Poll numbers in detail

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 4:13 PM

25% of my family is hispanic, from Columbia and Spain. While I am no longer Catholic, ALL of my spanish-speaking relatives are still Catholic, every single one of them.

Catholics don’t like murdering babies, and we have a strong work ethic. While I don’t have any Mexican relatives by blood, I can tell you my Mexican relatives by marriage have just as strong a work ethic.

We [speaking for my hispanic relatives, not my more liberal-leaning European relatives] are AGAINST abortion, FOR jobs, and HATE lying liar politicians because we have lived through what they have done to our beloved Spain.

The more we see the real Romney and the real Ryan, without a media filter, the more we like them. This upswing in hispanics is not a surprise to anyone with hispanic relatives.

JustTruth101 on October 13, 2012 at 4:14 PM

But what about illegals ? They are the actual hispanics. They who luv sisay puray chanting Hussein ? The real beneficiaries of Hussein’s defiance of our Nation’s laws ?
They are the ones who decide elections for Hussein donchano ?

burrata on October 13, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Bueno.

AshleyTKing on October 13, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Obama’s collapse in Nate Silver’s map:

EC vote: 05-Oct: 327.7/210.3 Obama
EC vote: 12-Oct: 276.2/261.8 Obama

Getting close…

Chuck Schick on October 13, 2012 at 4:11 PM

They must have showed this to BO today as his scheduled has been cleared and is now holed up studying until Tuesday

CoffeeLover on October 13, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Lets remember a lot of the Hispanic population in FL. is Cuban.

Ever since the Democratic Party showed exactly how much it revered Castro during the whole Elian Gonzalez fiasco, plenty of Cubans left and will never come back.

Cuban Americans in FL swinging to Bush in 2000 is why Gore didn’t win FL in a cakewalk.

manofaiki on October 13, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Perhaps Romney and Ryan’s traditional marriage stance appeals to these folks. Ryan’s Catholicism probably is an asset.

Philly on October 13, 2012 at 4:17 PM

I have just fallen off my chair…

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 2:33 PM

…imagine the progs!…they’re falling out of their highchairs!

KOOLAID2 on October 13, 2012 at 4:26 PM

It amuses me to see people chalk this change up to being “mostly Cubans.”

This is Florida, we have a fruit and vegetable growing season that lasts all year long. Who do you think is in the fields picking the fruit and vegetables? Cubans?

Florida has a large population of Mexicans, especially in areas like Homestead and along State Road 60, which runs east to west across the central part of the state.

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Which is why liberals don’t consider them to be “real” Hispanics and thus their opinions can be dismissed.

HidetheDecline on October 13, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Because they are, in a sense, not “real” Hispanics. they have different ethnic roots, different dialect of Spanish, and vastly different political preferences.

Archivarix on October 13, 2012 at 2:38 PM

…oh… I think these people are all “White Hispanics” or something…I heard that somewhere before…

KOOLAID2 on October 13, 2012 at 4:35 PM

I am still convinced that in many states with large Hispanic populations, pollsters are so busy looking for Hispanics to take their polls that they don’t take steps to exclude respondents who are likely to be illegal aliens from their polls. In Florida, the majority of Hispanics are Cuban, and Cubans who are here but don’t have their citizenship yet are happy to admit that—because non-citizen Cubans are presumed refugees, and are not here illegally.

An illegal alien from El Salvador, Honduras, or Mexico might answer falsely that s/he is registered to vote, in hopes of avoiding what they fear the next question is: Why are you not registered to vote? Only an idiot would tell some stranger on the phone, “Umm, yeah, I’m like, an illegal alien. So I can’t legally register to vote. Hyuk, hyuk, hope you’re not La Migra!”

I would start by polling only Hispanics who can speak enough English to answer poll questions. Yes, there are legal, eligible Hispanic voters who would be completely missed by this poll. But for every one of them, I think you would exclude hundreds of illegals. Screening questions should be able to subtly identify those respondents likely to be illegal and toss their answers (Where did you graduate from high school? What sports or activities did you do in high school? Where do you go to file your taxes?). Gather the Hispanics in your poll by taking extra Hispanic names on a general list of registered voters, or a popular catalog list—don’t look in typically Hispanic markets. Just my suggestions

Sekhmet on October 13, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Florida has a large population of “White Mexicans”, especially in areas like Homestead and along State Road 60, which runs east to west across the central part of the state.

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 4:31 PM

…there…I fixed it for you so we can figure out the change in the polls.

KOOLAID2 on October 13, 2012 at 4:38 PM

RCP average

Today: 47.3 46.0 Romney +1.3
4 years ago today: 52.1 44.5 Obama +7.3

Almost a 9 point swing in time. He’s toast. Obama had all the momentum at this point 4 years ago. His election was guaranteed. He and McCain were tied Sept 17th, which roughly when voters started paying attention, and he started his rise in the polls. Romney is now the riser as the public is taking it’s closest look. Romney gets past Obama in this debate, and I think his election is guaranteed.

rubberneck on October 13, 2012 at 4:40 PM

The Univision Interviews, esp. of Obama bombing with Fast and Furious.

The Frontiersman on October 13, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Because they are, in a sense, not “real” Hispanics. they have different ethnic roots, different dialect of Spanish, and vastly different political preferences.

Archivarix on October 13, 2012 at 2:38 PM

I’ll pass this information along to my son-in-law, who came to America 30 yrs ago from Havanna. I’m sure he’ll be surprised to learn he’s not a “real” Hispanic.

FL Hispanic community — it’s not just for Cubans any more. Or Puerto Ricans. Or Mexicans..

Cubans (29%) and Puerto Ricans (20%) remain clearly the two largest groups of Hispanics, with the latter growing in share. Overall, the number of Puerto Ricans living in Florida nearly doubled in the last ten years, adding the equivalent of the entire population of the City of Tampa to its ranks since the year 2000.

And more importantly for the state’s political calculus, the number of Puerto Ricans of voting age has nearly doubled since 2000, and as anyone living in Orlando can attest, it is a growth rate that isn’t slowing down anytime soon.

Mexicans make up the third largest share, with just under 15% of the state’s Hispanic residents, and interestingly, the largest Mexican population (just over 65K) is in Hillsborough County, where Mexicans slightly outpace Cubans, despite the county’s long heritage as one of Florida’s key Cuban communities.

But here is where things get interesting; there are currently 14 nationalities that make up more than one percent of Florida’s Hispanic population. In terms of raw numbers, this means that 14 nationalities have a population living in Florida greater than 42,000 residents. And virtually all of these populations are growing faster than the overall Hispanic rate of growth.

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 4:47 PM

As a Floridian, let me give you guys some “on the ground” context for the recent Florida polls (and Suffolk pulling their polsters).

I live in an upper-middle to upper income area (Maitland/Winter Park)near Orlando. The area is mostly college educated. In 2008, Obama signs swamped McCain signs in our neighborhood by about 2:1. Now in 2012 Obama only manages to get to 1:1 parity with Romney signs… IF you only count Romney signs with empty chairs sitting next to them (6 empty chairs!). Otherwise it’s 4:1 Romney signs.

I can also confirm the coming ad-pocolypse. It’s about 80% political ads trying to watch football this weekend. About 2:1 of those ads are Romney ads, and they are BRUTAL mostly featuring cuts from the first debate and also a very slick one which says something to the effect of “He’s not just wasting money, he’s BORROWING money and THEN wasting it (and also pssst he’s borring it from CHINA!)”. Very rough ads.

I can attest from the tradesmen I work with (hint: I work for the largest employer in central Florida) that there are MANY latinos not of Cuban descent who are not fans of Hope and Change and are rather resentful of the dream-act by decree move. The univision F&F special report is being discounted, it really hit home. I don’t know if there are any ads out highlighting it, but there SHOULD be.

MTeague on October 13, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Like I said above, Cubans who are not yet American citizens are refugees in the process of becoming citizens. Puerto Rico is an American territory, and Puerto Ricans are American. The Hispanic population of Florida are mostly either American citizens or legal residents.

Sekhmet on October 13, 2012 at 4:59 PM

I love the smell of freedom coming in on a soft October breeze…..

donkichi on October 13, 2012 at 5:00 PM

I don’t suppose it has anything to do with maybe they do have brains and can think for themselves without the help of the Democratic Party?

DDay on October 13, 2012 at 5:02 PM

If those numbers are from the Tampa Bay Times (used to be the Saint Petersburg Times), they are almost certainly lower than reality. This is one of the most left wing papers you can imagine. They created Politi-Fact and if you’ve never seen it, it’s laughable how it protects the left and demonizes the right.

wb-33777 on October 13, 2012 at 5:10 PM

A poster mentioned the White Hispanic, as white, I hate the idea of Democrats preferring that I bend over for every black thug or welfare case that comes along, perhaps now Hispanics are getting the same idea and voting in ways that help their future ability to defend themselves and not go to jail for it.

Spartacus on October 13, 2012 at 5:12 PM

GUMBY come out and play…..

first check out RCP…k??

CW on October 13, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Atomic?

ShadowsPawn on October 13, 2012 at 5:16 PM

If those numbers are from the Tampa Bay Times (used to be the Saint Petersburg Times), they are almost certainly lower than reality. This is one of the most left wing papers you can imagine. They created Politi-Fact and if you’ve never seen it, it’s laughable how it protects the left and demonizes the right.

wb-33777 on October 13, 2012 at 5:10 PM

The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters — all likely to vote in the November election — was conducted Oct. 8–10 for the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, El Nuevo Herald, Bay News 9 and News 13.

The poll, which included respondents using land-lines and cell phones, was conducted by Mason-Dixon, a nonpartisan, Jacksonville-based company. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points. Source

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Muy bueno!

Chewy the Lab on October 13, 2012 at 5:23 PM

It’s got to be mostly about the economy….everyone at least knows one person out of work right now plus..every time you buy food or fill up the gas tank its undeniable that everything is more expensive. Most of the hispanics I know dont like being thought of as a block anyway and few are thrilled with Barry. Most people see Mitt as a straight up experienced business man. Common sense tells us that if government were run like a business the results would be much better vs. the status quo.

azconservativegirl on October 13, 2012 at 5:27 PM

MTeague on October 13, 2012 at 4:48 PM

From the tips of your typin’ fingers to
God’s ear! I have long said that the Hispanic community is a very quiet, thoughtful block, and I have a feeling they will bury, um Barry.

Chewy the Lab on October 13, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Si, se puede! Latinos es no loco in la cabeza!

Every seen the You Tubes on 4th grade Spanish? yeah…that’s how I speak Spanish.

petunia on October 13, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Thanks for the 411, and I agree completely with you about the diversity in and among the Hispanic populations of Florida. As someone who has a small export business headquartered near Miami, I have a number of Latinos on the payroll and the percentage breakdown is quite similar to that presented in the article.

And, all of them, by the way are as smart, hard-working, and conservative as they come, and I dare say, if polled, would produce maybe a 95/0/5 R to O to Undecided result.

TXUS on October 13, 2012 at 5:32 PM

MTeague on October 13, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Thank You. I guess Romney believes the old saw about who ever has the ball last wins… and saved his money to make sure his ads got the attention in the end.

petunia on October 13, 2012 at 5:32 PM

And that prompts another question — if indeed Hispanics are moving away from Obama in Florida, what are they doing in other states?

They’re probably acting very differently, and Romney’s probably losing them by about the same margin McCain did. That’s because, as many people have already pointed out, but which Ed was remiss to point out (as was Allahpundit last time he posted on Florida), many of Florida’s Hispanics are Cuban.

If Nevada and Colorado get a fresh influx of Cubans, then it’d be a pertinent question. Unlike, say, Mexican or Puerto Rican immigrants, Cubans have very bitter memories of socialism and Fidel Castro.

Stoic Patriot on October 13, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Like i said 2 weeks ago .I don,t think this election is going to be a close one .Either Romney or Obama will win with over 310 elector votes.Does this mean Romney is a sure win? No but if i had to bet today i would bet on Romney.for the past 2 weeks i have been looking not at the swing states but states like Ct. Obama had a 13 point lead in that very liberal state just before the debate .He won it in 2008 by 12 points.Now according to Rasmussen he is leading by only 6 51% to 45%.Obama will most likely win there but noway by the margin he did in 2008.So if Obama is down in states he won easily in 2008 he,s in big trouble.

logman1 on October 13, 2012 at 5:39 PM

I don’t know that there’s anything the president can do to change course at this point. People aren’t as stupid as he may think. We’ve said it all before, he was all about change and promises and he hasn’t made much change nor has he kept many promises. People aren’t any better off and they’re tired of the rhetoric. I think the only reason he wants to do another four years is just to save face and keep all the perks. It certainly isn’t because he’d like to put his nose to the grindstone, he’s never done that. And he’s not about to reach across the aisle and try to find solutions, never been about that either. He doesn’t want to deal with foreign leaders, doesn’t want to hear about Benghazi, we’d be doing him a huge favor by not voting him in for another term. He truly doesn’t want it.

scalleywag on October 13, 2012 at 5:43 PM

The univision F&F special report is being discounted, it really hit home. I don’t know if there are any ads out highlighting it, but there SHOULD be.

MTeague on October 13, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Good to hear that the Fake Scandal is getting out to people.

Del Dolemonte on October 13, 2012 at 5:46 PM

He truly doesn’t want it.

scalleywag on October 13, 2012 at 5:43 PM

AND, when he doesn’t get it, which it’s beginning to look like he won’t, guess what he’s going to say? It’s because Romney and Ryan lied. And then he’ll say he’s available to do the View again and guess what they’ll say? No.

scalleywag on October 13, 2012 at 5:46 PM

A caveat is in order. The report doesn’t include the poll data, so we can’t see the modeling, and it also doesn’t include the top-line number — which I assume the TB Times wants to hold for tomorrow.

Ed, the full results were released yesterday. This is from the same poll that showed Romney up 7 in Florida. You can find all of the crosstabs if you scroll down to the bottom.

steebo77 on October 13, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Stoic Patriot on October 13, 2012 at 5:36 PM

May I direct your attention to my 4:47 PM comment?

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Nacho Libre!!!

faraway on October 13, 2012 at 5:50 PM

I’d love to see the California/ NY numbers. A nail-biter in those states would be telling.

tdarrington on October 13, 2012 at 5:58 PM

many of Florida’s Hispanics are Cuban.

Stoic Patriot on October 13, 2012 at 5:36 PM

You’re so smart.

CW on October 13, 2012 at 6:04 PM

May I direct your attention to my 4:47 PM comment?

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Which still shows Cubans as the dominant group within the segment of Hispanics. As Puerto Ricans grow and Cubans diminish, barring a politically transformational figure, so too will the GOP advantage in Florida among Hispanics.

Stoic Patriot on October 13, 2012 at 6:11 PM

for the life of me I can not understand why Romney is not running commercials with the Univison interview 24/7 in the latino based states NV,CO,NM,AZ

audiotom on October 13, 2012 at 6:13 PM

You’re so smart.

CW on October 13, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Glad you realize it.

Stoic Patriot on October 13, 2012 at 6:14 PM

And that prompts another question — if indeed Hispanics are moving away from Obama in Florida, what are they doing in other states?

Unfortunately, its apples and oranges. FLA’s Hispanics are largely of Cuban descent. They tend to lean GOP. I wouldn’t read anything on CO or NV Hispanic turnout based on FLA polls.

JohnGalt23 on October 13, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Oh, Romney is doing this without promising amnesty or even the DREAM Act.

pdigaudio on October 13, 2012 at 6:27 PM

‘GUMBY come out and play…..”

PPP poll of Ohio due out tonight.

I’ll be here to play…

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Cubans get amnesty when they get to the USA, maybe that’s why immigration isn’t important to them.

conservador on October 13, 2012 at 6:36 PM

As Puerto Ricans grow and Cubans diminish, barring a politically transformational figure, so too will the GOP advantage in Florida among Hispanics.

Stoic Patriot on October 13, 2012 at 6:11 PM

“For years, the Puerto Rican vote in states such as New York and New Jersey has been safely Democratic,” said Angelo Falcon, the president of the National Institute for Latino Policy. But that won’t necessarily be the case in Florida when the 2012 election is held, he added.

Falcon pointed out a large number of those job-seeking immigrants now arriving in Florida are college-educated and middle class, driven from their home because of Puerto Rico’s contracting economy. Politically, socially and economically conservative, Democrats should not take their political loyalties for granted. Source

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 6:47 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 6:35 PM

So you’re admitting you were full of it when you were bragging just last weekend that Florida was lost to Romney – that’s good to know.

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 6:50 PM

You know its a good point , so many people have done extraordinary things, faced obstacles that
would make less than the most driven throw in the proverbial towel, to come to a land where
they could have a better life, freedom to do all they have ambition for and be rewarded for their
efforts….. they are not going to take this socialist /marxist/facist/ BS.. they have already seen this movie

Thats why they left…. landslide…..

MrMoe on October 13, 2012 at 6:52 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 6:35 PM

why? If it’s good for mitt you won’t like it. If it’s bad for Mitt we’ll say PPP is a left wing partisan.

stay away

gerrym51 on October 13, 2012 at 6:52 PM

And then he’ll say he’s available to do the View again and guess what they’ll say? No.

scalleywag on October 13, 2012 at 5:46 PM

I don’t believe that. You think those left-wing hacks are going to turn away their fallen idol just because he loses? They will still be left-wing hacks(or hags if you prefer) and they will have him on so that they can pout with him and talk about how racist America is.

Sterling Holobyte on October 13, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Baby it aint over till its over.

I’m not throwing water on anything, but can we keep perspective. The election is 24 days away and it aint over.

We have to keep the momentum going. We have to make sure we keep up the pressure and get to the polls.

Take nothing for granted and keep hammering away. We can relax at T-Day!

smorrow66 on October 13, 2012 at 7:37 PM

PPP basically said they had a tie in their Ohio polling yesterday and now they poll on a Saturday afternoon (!) to give Obama a 51-46 lead. They also claim Obama has a 76-24 lead with people who have already voted, but Romney leads 51-45 among those who haven’t.

RepublicanInMA on October 13, 2012 at 7:39 PM

KABOOM goes the Romney campaign in Ohio.

Bye Bye Ohio!

Bye Bye election!

I TOLD YOU SO

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

KABOOM goes the Romney campaign in Ohio.

Bye Bye Ohio!

Bye Bye election!

I TOLD YOU SO

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Pardon me, son… but are you retarded?

JohnGalt23 on October 13, 2012 at 7:49 PM

This should be the sunject of anthread here on HA:

More than 500 economists, 5 Nobel laureates back Romney’s economic strategy

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 7:50 PM

‘The subject of a thread’ that is…

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 7:51 PM

KABOOM goes the Romney campaign in Ohio.

Bye Bye Ohio!

Bye Bye election!

I TOLD YOU SO

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Case and point on the kind of person that was home on a Saturday afternoon for PPP to poll.

RepublicanInMA on October 13, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Ok, I give up, your boy wins. YeeHaw….Now go away and leave us alone.

BeachBum on October 13, 2012 at 8:01 PM

It’s all Eva Longoria’s fault!

OxyCon on October 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

KABOOM goes the Romney campaign in Ohio.

Bye Bye Ohio!

Bye Bye election!

I TOLD YOU SO

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Much like your Atomic quote, isn’t it? You went on to regret that didn’t you (or maybe you didn’t, who knows with you).

I said this before, you are an over-excitable reactionary that lacks the wisdom to see past the moment. Polls change, people change, events happen. Mitt could do something tomorrow that could sink his entire campaign, Obama could do the same. Either one of them could come out on top in this debate and deliver a message so powerful that it causes a massive shift in the polls in either direction.

Your reactions are so very predictable and “child-like”.

ShadowsPawn on October 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

I TOLD YOU SO

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

By the way, you can say that on election day, saying it before makes you look foolish.

ShadowsPawn on October 13, 2012 at 8:09 PM

ShadowsPawn on October 13, 2012 at 8:05 PM

I think he suffers from a mental ailment or intsability of sorts. Normal people don’t react like this, regardless how invested they are in one candidate or the other. His excitability bout these polls who change from one day to the other is slightly pathological. If a poll shows Romney down he acts as if he gets to live another day, or something, which is most eird the man is just not a sane individual, clearly.

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I am beginning to think that this “person” is not even old enough to vote. The reactions, the “I told you so’s”, the nyah, nyah, nyah….all point to someone in junior high.

BeachBum on October 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

I am beginning to think that this “person” is not even old enough to vote. The reactions, the “I told you so’s”, the nyah, nyah, nyah….all point to someone in junior high.

BeachBum on October 13, 2012 at 8:14 PM

He sounds rather disturbed. a junior high person would show more judgement and maturity than this one.

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

C’mon CW,

Come out and play, you moron.

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Psycho

BeachBum on October 13, 2012 at 8:18 PM

KABOOM goes the Romney campaign in Ohio.

Bye Bye Ohio!

Bye Bye election!

I TOLD YOU SO

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 7:46 PM

idisVA

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

His excitability bout these polls who change from one day to the other is slightly pathological.

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I’ve noticed this as well. I can’t imagine my sense of well being tied deeply to something so arbitrary as a political poll.

ShadowsPawn on October 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

C’mon CW,

Come out and play, you moron.

gumbyandpokey on October 13, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Oh look, the trolling poll troll has gotten upset.

ShadowsPawn on October 13, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Tampa Bay Times is in partnership with Politico. It’s nothing but a left wing rag. So if this is coming from a left wing rag?

Ooooh boy.

/I know, I’m racist.

Key West Reader on October 13, 2012 at 8:25 PM

I’ve noticed this as well. I can’t imagine my sense of well being tied deeply to something so arbitrary as a political poll.

ShadowsPawn on October 13, 2012 at 8:21 PM

He’s clearly mentally unstable.

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 8:28 PM

His excitability bout these polls who change from one day to the other is slightly Biden’s-debate-performance-esque pathological.

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Fixed!

Anti-Control on October 13, 2012 at 8:41 PM

His excitability bout these polls who change from one day to the other is slightly Biden’s-debate-performance-esque pathological.

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Fixed!

Anti-Control on October 13, 2012 at 8:41 PM

That will work :) It amuses me how the hypocritical libs described Biden’s over the top mannerism and demented laughter as a sign of ‘passion’ (riiight, imagine if a con did that in a debate or gelevised event, interview, etc) Begala, if I am not mistaken called him a happy warrior :)…Yeah, only a tad too ‘happy’ maybe, as in
hallucinogen-induced ‘happy’ or bi-polar happy :)…

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 8:59 PM

jimver on October 13, 2012 at 8:59 PM

“passion”+”happy warrior” excuse=LOL

I agree with you completely. Lying leftists in denial should think about Romney being at that debate table acting like Biden, and 0-bow-mao being there acting like himself, to get a idea of how much they honestly respect Biden’s clownish, condescending, and embarrassing performance.

When I imagine the endless caterwauling we’d hear from those hypocrites if Romney were to treat 0-bow-mao similarly, I’ll tell you that it makes me smile and giggle like Biden did that night! :)

Anti-Control on October 13, 2012 at 9:29 PM

And that prompts another question — if indeed Hispanics are moving away from Obama in Florida, what are they doing in other states?

Given that the registered Hispanics in FL are evenly split between Dems, Reps, and unaffiliated and don’t follow national trends I would not get too excited about the trend moving outside of Florida but Florida is critical and would certainly make a path tot he White House more likely.

lexhamfox on October 13, 2012 at 9:36 PM

We the People are beginning to see Obama for being a liar, perhaps?

According to my exhaustive research, people don’t like liars. Period.

Liars are not cool, you know?

Sherman1864 on October 13, 2012 at 10:44 PM

idisVA

Flora Duh on October 13, 2012 at 8:19 PM

It really seems what way doesn’t it? Same type of posts,stuck on stupid and delusional.

ShadowsPawn on October 13, 2012 at 11:35 PM

Jeez, does that mean New Mexico and Colorado are in play?

Oil Can on October 14, 2012 at 12:05 AM

Talk about insane delusions:

Obama: If people read transcript, they’ll think I won last debate

http://washingtonexaminer.com/obama-if-people-read-transcript-theyll-think-i-won-last-debate/article/2510639?custom_click=rss#.UHo7ScXA8mW

mnjg on October 14, 2012 at 12:12 AM

Saw this, and the whole Hispanic thing actually isn’t surprising. This is Florida here, the Hispanic population in the state leans quite a bit more Republican than the rest of the nations Hispanic population.

WolvenOne on October 14, 2012 at 2:06 AM

On the subject of the PPP poll, there are a few things wrong with it.

First, slightly oversampled democrats, of course.

Second, showed Romney winning independents but not winning as much of his own party as Obama. Not only does this contradict the conventional wisdom, but it contradicts numerous national polls that show Romney splitting off more democrats from Obama than vice versa.

Third, they under-sampled Independents. Only about 23% of the respondents were independents, the norm for Ohio is around 30%

Fourth, weekend polling favors democrats. Yes I know some people claim this is a myth, but its a very clear trend whenever you look by day by day breakdowns of tracking polls.

Fifth, it’s frigging PPP. They were caught with their pants down practicing push-polling recently, placing questions that would pre-dispose respondents towards answering certain ways before asking whom they would vote for. For example, in the poll where they were caught doing this they asked respondents if they agreed with conservative personalities like Rush Limbaugh, Shawn Hannity, and Newt Gingrich. In other words the question was designed to mentally tie Romney to these individuals to change how wavering voters might respond. Low and behold, PPP has consistently shown Romney performing less strongly among independents than almost any other pollster.

So no, it’s not a credible poll and should be taken with a huge grain of salt. If Romney performed as well as he usually did with Republicans the poll would’ve come out as a tie, if independents hadn’t been under-polled he likely would’ve been narrowly ahead, and of course pollsters that regularly engage in push polling are cannot be trusted to give you data thats reflective of actual situations on the ground.

Hate sounding conspiratorial, but come one, PPP actively admits that they want Obama to win, and are trying to help. If anybody is gonna cook their numbers, it’s them!

WolvenOne on October 14, 2012 at 2:43 AM

How would you characterize that erosion? Rapido y Furioso!

Wigglesworth on October 14, 2012 at 8:42 AM

Most Hispanics are hard working people and they need jobs too.

Wade on October 14, 2012 at 10:28 AM

The Univision Interviews, esp. of Obama bombing with Fast and Furious.

The Frontiersman on October 13, 2012 at 4:44 PM

^^ This.

ClintACK on October 14, 2012 at 10:40 AM

While you’re checking polls, check this:

itsspideyman on October 14, 2012 at 12:06 PM

You’re desperately clutching for straws when you site a Democrat poll and cling to it as gospel.

itsspideyman on October 14, 2012 at 12:09 PM

The NBC poll of the other day also had a big advantage to Obama in early voting – and even with that when you looked at the voting day numbers being for Romney, Romney won by 3 to 4 points.

We know GOP avoid exit pollsters so that means we know that data is wrong. I do know PPP is a partisian firm – the most openly so of any major pollster. I ignore everything they do, and I now add 3-5 % to Romney with every Gallup poll since they changed their methodology in response to the Obama lawsuit threat.

This race is over as long as we do the stuff, vote, get your family to vote. Increasingly we need some of our senate candidates to get up and win – Mourdock in IN is absolutely throwing away an easy seat by being an extreme jerk, just like Angle in NV.

Zomcon JEM on October 14, 2012 at 1:20 PM

On the polls saying that democrats are winning early voting.

HA!!!

I’m sorry, but a poll with an extremely small sample isn’t a good way to gauge early voting. Here’s the thing, we, “KNOW,” how many ballots are being requested per county, we know what the returns are, and we know roughly many many ballots were requested by democrats and how many were requested by Republicans.

THAT data clearly shows Republicans outpacing their 2008 numbers by a large margin. This data is also going to be a lot more reliable than a small poll of around 200 people, particularly when that poll is self selecting rather than random.

WolvenOne on October 14, 2012 at 1:49 PM

And that prompts another question — if indeed Hispanics are moving away from Obama in Florida, what are they doing in other states?

Florida is unique thanks to its huge Cuban population … Hispanics elsewhere tend to favor Democrats, though.

mlindroo on October 15, 2012 at 11:55 AM

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