SurveyUSA poll shows virtual tie in Ohio

posted at 3:21 pm on October 12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The topline results from SurveyUSA’s poll in Ohio earlier this week might at first blush look like good news for Barack Obama.  After all, he still leads Mitt Romney, if by a single point, in a state that Republicans almost certainly have to win to deny Obama a second term. However, the poll taken in the three days after Obama’s debate flop only shows him with 45% support, in a sample that has a significant Democratic advantage:

In an election for Ohio’s 18 vital electoral votes today, 10/09/12, one week after Buckeye voting began and 4 weeks till votes are counted, Barack Obama is at 45% to Mitt Romney’s 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV, NBC4 in Columbus. Obama’s advantage is within the survey’s possible sources of error and may or may not be significant.

It’s a dead heat, or at least it was earlier this week.  But an incumbent at 45% with four weeks to go in an election is in deep trouble, especially when the sample has a D+6 advantage.  The D/R/I on this poll is 39/33/25, which is defensible, but only if one thinks that the turnout model will come close to 2008′s 39/31/30.  The turnout in Ohio two years ago was 36/37/28 for an R+1, and there isn’t much evidence to declare that Democratic enthusiasm has returned to Ohio.

In fact, as SurveyUSA breaks down the figures themselves, the opposite seems true:

“Optimistic” Ohio voters back Obama 4:1. “Worried” Ohio voters back Romney 2:1. “Angry” Ohio voters back Romney 3:1.
Romney leads among voters who are married. Obama leads among voters who are single, divorced or widowed. …
Ohio voters, narrowly, say Romney would do a better job balancing the federal budget.
Ohio voters split on who would do better at keeping America safe.
Ohio voters say Obama is more in touch with the average person.

The key in Ohio will almost certainly be independent voters, and they break sharply toward Romney.  He leads 44/35, with 12% still undecided and 9% claiming to vote for “other.”  That means that Obama has to make up nine points and get out of the mid-30s in less than 28 days among a group that he won in 2008 by eight points, 52/44.  In other words, Romney has already matched the level of John McCain with Ohio independents, but Obama is seventeen points below his 2008 pace.

Can Obama make it up among “optimistic” voters?  That’s unlikely.  Only 36% of all likely voters surveyed consider themselves “optimistic,” while 60% consider themselves either “worried and concerned” or “frustrated and angry.”  Among independents, that’s a 28/69 split.

Finally, let’s look at the gender gap.  In 2008, Obama won the gender gap in Ohio over McCain by eleven points — three among men and eight among women.  In this SUSA poll, Obama has a +4 in the gender gap, as Romney leads by seven among men and Obama leads by 11 among women.  He only gets to 40% among men, though, and since only 35% of men consider themselves “optimistic,” he’s probably near his ceiling.

An incumbent who can’t get out of the mid-40s overall, or even into the 40s among independent voters, with four weeks to go is not on track for a win.  Romney has a big opening here to close the deal in the Buckeye State.


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…VIRTUAL VICTORY!

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Obama is falling like a stone… Good riddance to bad rubbish…

Joe Biden, Paul Ryan and Bibi’s “Red Line” time line.

SWalker on October 12, 2012 at 3:24 PM

D+LOL! :-D

Punchenko on October 12, 2012 at 3:24 PM

The dam is about to break.

Norwegian on October 12, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Gumby hardest hit.

itsspideyman on October 12, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Pollsters gonna poll, haters gonna hate…

Marcola on October 12, 2012 at 3:25 PM

…who are “optimistic” Oiho voters for Obama? …about what?

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Ohio is a goner for Barry. These earlier polls showing him in the lead assumed a ridiculous turnout for the Dems that was never gonna happen. And that was before his horrific debate performance and the escalating scandal over Benghazi. Now he has to deal with an energized GOP base and no record to run on, even national security.

Doughboy on October 12, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Romney has already matched the level of John McCain with Ohio independents, but Obama is seventeen points below his 2008 pace.

that’s Alan Grayson territory……well, close—Grayson really got beat by 18pts./

ted c on October 12, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Yes, people are paying far too much attention to how far ahead or behind Romney is in the polls. They should be looking ONLY at Obama’s number.

Historically the undecideds break late for the challenger. If Obama is not at at least 48% (especially with an oversampled Dem poll), he is in deep deep trouble.

That and the fact that even the most biased polling tells the same story, Obama is losing Independents by double digits. Anyone who thinks Obama can lose Independents by double digits and still win is smokin some of the stuff Biden was on last night.

mitchellvii on October 12, 2012 at 3:26 PM

What does the recent Romney surge tell us?

No one believes the fake unemployment numbers.

mitchellvii on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Welcome back, Carter.

OhioCoastie on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM

…who are “optimistic” Oiho voters for Obama?

those with an “obamaphone”?

runner on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM

D/R/I 59/11/30

Romney +0.5

nitzsche on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Joe Biden debating like a slightly insane asshole isn’t going to help Obama. Can you imagine Obama trying to come across like that? His likability, the one thing he has left would go down the toilet.

mitchellvii on October 12, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Calling it now. Romney has this in the bag. Obama is sinking like a stone.

rubberneck on October 12, 2012 at 3:29 PM

What does the recent Romney surge tell us?

No one believes the fake unemployment numbers.

mitchellvii on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Yup. Even Goolsbee said he wouldn’t be surprised if the #s turned out to be nothing more than statistical noise.

GOPRanknFile on October 12, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Ok-Anxiously awaiting for the MSM to declare the race essentially over for Obama-and still waiting………

redware on October 12, 2012 at 3:30 PM

With a more plausible D+3 model (averaging the D+8 of 2008 and the R+1 of 2010), Romney would be winning this poll.

Let ‘em have the Obama +1 headline. Poor buggers need to have a bone thrown their way after their disastrous week. But there is no question which way the trend is moving, like a runaway freight train.

Right Mover on October 12, 2012 at 3:31 PM

With a D+6 sample.

Heh.

Tim_CA on October 12, 2012 at 3:32 PM

D+6. What a joke.

Cicero43 on October 12, 2012 at 3:32 PM

I want to know how many “stupid” Ohio voters back Ogabe. Can he reach triple digits with them?

Archivarix on October 12, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I’ve predicted all along that Obama will win Ohio, Virginia and Florida, while Romney takes NC.

If I’m wrong on a state, it will be FL. OH is a 100% lock/firewall for Obama and VA is 90% locked up, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 10:37 PM

In less than 72 hours:

FL: GONE
VA: GONE
OH: TIE

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 3:33 PM

While the polling is going in the right direction, Ohio as the key to victory bothers me for a couple reasons:

1. It’s bought and paid for with the auto bailout and Obama’s lies that were GM to have gone into bankruptcy all the auto jobs would have simply disappeared into thin air.

2. Union strength and local gov’t corruption. The unions got organized over the collective bargaining law and that’s not likely to have dissipated much. Also, remember the attack on Joe the Plumber? Yeah, that was facilitated by state government officials, who also did little to stop Acorn.

I’ll be a lot more comfortable once Romney puts some states that, on paper, appear tougher to get in his column. I think WI or PA will go for Romney before Ohio does.

Dead Hand Control on October 12, 2012 at 3:34 PM

those with an “obamaphone”?

runner on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM

lol….the gift that keeps on giving!

Tim_CA on October 12, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Calling it now. Romney has this in the bag. Obama is sinking like a stone.

rubberneck on October 12, 2012 at 3:29 PM

I’d love to say the same, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Still plenty of time for a gaffe, an October surprise, a debate misstep, etc.

Still, if he’s winning indies by that much I like his chances.

changer1701 on October 12, 2012 at 3:34 PM

This morning, RCP’s average of Ohio showed O’bamna up by 1.3, which is a tie.

Whoever thinks Ohio is a lock for O has been eating too much Play-Doh.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 3:34 PM

that’s Alan Grayson territory……well, close—Grayson really got beat by 18pts./

ted c on October 12, 2012 at 3:26 PM

ON MY KNEES PRAYING FOR A REDUX OF THIS!

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 3:34 PM

But but Gumballs said Ohio’s an Obama lock!!1

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Whoever thinks Ohio is a lock for O has been eating too much Play-Doh.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 3:34 PM

..or partying with their Guatemalan pool-boy live-in lovers!

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 3:36 PM

I sense that the narrative is about to shift in a MAJOR way. The press is suddenly trying to salvage SOME credibility. Obama blowing that first debate MAY just have shocked them into action. And mind you, they don’t have to be shocked all the way to objectivity. That will NEVER happen. But even one or two stories about Romney’s momentum, and the clusterfark that has become Middle East security can shift voter opinion in a MAJOR way.

Obama has relied for 7 years on controlling the narrative.

Without a favorable narrative, he has nothing going for him.

Nicole Coulter on October 12, 2012 at 3:36 PM

OT: NY Yankees bench A-Rod for their deciding Game 5 against Baltimore (game start time = 5:07 PM EDT)

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 3:36 PM

those with an “obamaphone”?

runner on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM
lol….the gift that keeps on giving!

Tim_CA on October 12, 2012 at 3:34 PM

They gotta keep Obama in President, you know.

/

Right Mover on October 12, 2012 at 3:37 PM

I can’t wait to hear this:

NBC News can now project that former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, will become the 45th President of the United States.

Punchenko on October 12, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Re Grayson

I’m interested in any thoughts if he returns to Congress. Republicans will likely keep the House but I think he’s running in a new district that favors Ds.

22044 on October 12, 2012 at 3:39 PM

I’ve predicted all along that Obama will win Ohio, Virginia and Florida, while Romney takes NC.

If I’m wrong on a state, it will be FL. OH is a 100% lock/firewall for Obama and VA is 90% locked up, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Doubling down on stupid.

dczombie on October 12, 2012 at 3:40 PM

shhhh LANDSLIDE…you didn’t hear it from me (borrowed from Rush)

neyney on October 12, 2012 at 3:40 PM

I can’t wait to hear this:

NBC News can now project that former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, will become the 45th President of the United States.

Punchenko on October 12, 2012 at 3:38 PM

No effin’ way. Every state within 3% range will be recounted into oblivion while inner cities burn, union strikes keep the economy paralyzed, and Ogabe is handing out pardons and EOs like Halloween candy.

Archivarix on October 12, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Rassussen has VA, NC, and FL as toss ups. I think those are Romney states, at least likely.

So, I see Romney at 238 right now. If he can pull in OH, HN, and MO that brings him to 270.

That’s means needs to get one more state…CO, NV, IA, MI, or WI. Long shots are PA and OR.

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 3:41 PM

I can’t wait to hear this:

NBC News can now project that former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, will become the 45th President of the United States.

Punchenko on October 12, 2012 at 3:38 PM

You’ll be waiting a while. At least til the next morning. And be prepared for Chris Matthews’ fat head to go Scanners on us.

Doughboy on October 12, 2012 at 3:41 PM

I’m sticking with my same prediction all along– electoral landslide. All these states will break together for R at the end (VA, FL, CO, OH, maybe NV and WI)

I still like a little more of a cushion though, to balance out all the systematic cheating and fraud we can expect

thurman on October 12, 2012 at 3:41 PM

those with an “obamaphone”?

runner on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Carlos Slim, (ahem) owner of the NYT, sells these.

faraway on October 12, 2012 at 3:42 PM

OT: NY Yankees bench A-Rod for their deciding Game 5 against Baltimore (game start time = 5:07 PM EDT)

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Yeah, and Obama benched Hil-Rod for the entire month of October.

faraway on October 12, 2012 at 3:44 PM

If you either discount the wacky NBC/Marist D+12 sample poll (oh yeah, but counting leaners they get that down to a “mere” D+8), or adjust its turnout assumptions to reflect something closer to reality, the measly 1.3% lead for Obama in the RCP Ohio average either drops to .5% or goes away completely, and the trend is clearly away from Obama. Any talk of Ohio being a “firewall” for the Democrats is just whistling past the graveyard at this point.

HTL on October 12, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Hey you know maybe Iran will have a nuclear weapon by Nov 6th. It’s time for war.

Wigglesworth on October 12, 2012 at 3:44 PM

In less than 72 hours:

FL: GONE
VA: GONE
OH: TIE

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Gumby was wrong? Surprise, surprise. It’s not the most intelligent troll out there. When has it been right about anything? Didn’t it say that Scott Walker would lose as well? Dick Morris is happy that gumby is around because we found the one individual that has a worse track record than he does.

GOPRanknFile on October 12, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 3:41 PM

270 wins the race. But hopefully Romney gets a lot more than 270.

22044 on October 12, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Hey you know maybe Iran will have a nuclear weapon by Nov 6th. It’s time for war.

Wigglesworth on October 12, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Suddenly, there will be intelligence reports that Iran has a nuclear weapon and these intelligence reports will be totally believable because these guys were so right about Benghazi and youtube video ?
OK , now I want a pretzel :O with lots of salt on it

burrata on October 12, 2012 at 3:48 PM

It’s all up to Ohio. Sigh.

Paul-Cincy on October 12, 2012 at 3:50 PM

But but Gumballs said Ohio’s an Obama lock!!1

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 3:36 PM

.
Gumballs has severe emotional and intellectual development issues …

… but I was curious, so I took the latest RCP electoral map and put CO, MO, FL, NC, VA, WI & NH to Romney.

With OH and PA left out of the mix – Romney would be at 271 EV

I live in OH and it is going to go to Romney.

PolAgnostic on October 12, 2012 at 3:51 PM

It’s said that the President has a visceral dislike for Mitt Romney — he despises him. This is not hard to believe. Everything about Obama is the product of mass delusion. He is not transformational, he is not brilliant. He has no ideas for the future, except more of the same, more of him. He is the most unqualified man to have ever been elected President and the tenor of his tenure has proven this to be true.

In reality, Barack Obama hates Mitt Romney, because Mitt is better than him.

INC on October 12, 2012 at 3:52 PM

270 wins the race. But hopefully Romney gets a lot more than 270.

22044 on October 12, 2012 at 3:45 PM

LOL! I had the number 271 in my mind. But I was thinking of the 269 vs 269 split, where it then goes to House.

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 3:52 PM

270 wins the race. But hopefully Romney gets a lot more than 270.

22044 on October 12, 2012 at 3:45 PM

I’ll gladly take a 270 win, as long as each state has a recount-proof margin. In fact, Bo(eh)ner casting the decisive vote would serve as a sweet reminder to Dems that Ogabe and Mad Nanzi screwed them out of presidency in 2010.

Archivarix on October 12, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Carlos Slim, (ahem) owner of the NYT, sells these.

faraway on October 12, 2012 at 3:42 PM

So Hussein is laundering US taxpayer money to mexico?
He’d never do that, never ;-) ;-)

burrata on October 12, 2012 at 3:52 PM

But Joe Biden won the debate! Woo hoo!

Sincerely,
the Democrats

22044 on October 12, 2012 at 3:53 PM

No one believes the fake unemployment numbers.

mitchellvii on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM

But, ATOMIC BOMB !!!!!!

pambi on October 12, 2012 at 3:53 PM

The dem cheatin’ in Ohio is gonna be bad, bad, bad.

Rational Thought on October 12, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Romney can be at 248 with FL, VA, NC, and MO.
He can win with OH and 1 other small EV state (e.g., NH, IA, NV)
He can win without OH while taking those three states plus CO.

Of course if *whisper*BLOWOUT*whisper* happens, then we’re looking at all of the above plus WI and maybe maybe maybe finally finally finally PA. I doubt MI is for real.

Nick_Angel on October 12, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Seriously, maybe I’m overly optimistic but I just don’t see Obama winning Ohio again. The absence of yard signs/bumper stickers compared to four years ago is noticeable.

buckichick1 on October 12, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Eat that, Cenk Uygur!

Don’t have cable but I plan to spend election night at the gym so I can watch the MSNBC meltdown in real time. I think Chris Matthews is going to be the most fun.

inviolet on October 12, 2012 at 3:56 PM

What will happen on Nov, 7th???…I worry about that…

PatriotRider on October 12, 2012 at 3:57 PM

I was nervous about Ohio until my first night of poll observing at the early voting location. I was there on the last day of registration, which happened to be on the same day as an Obama rally at OSU campus.

If Obama wins Ohio after what I saw that night, I’ll be shocked. The turnout from the rally of people bused in was a fraction of what the poll workers told to expect. Ten buses, max capacity 50-60 people. Sheriff on duty said one of the buses was only half full. You do the math. They closed at 9, and were expecting to still have a line out the door of people to process (direct words from the Democrat judge who was on staff that night – a super nice, welcoming guy, btw). By 8:30 you could have rolled tumbleweeds through the aisles.

tdpwells on October 12, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Did anyone check, is the little poke&pole character on suicide watch yet?

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 4:00 PM

““Angry” Ohio voters back Romney 3:1.”

My people.

NoVAHockey on October 12, 2012 at 4:01 PM

I live in what was a very heavy pro-Obama part of Cleveland. There seems to be no where near the enthusiam of 2008 outside of the black community. I live in an upscale, heavily jewish, liberal, suburb and amoung people I talk to or people at work, I just don’t see any eagerness for it. Also you see maybe a fourth the number of Obama bumper stickers and yard signs, etc. It just isn’t there this year. I think the extremely negative campagain being run by the President and his surrogates has just destroyed the positive feelings of four years ago and will be reflected in much lower turnout.

clevbrian19d on October 12, 2012 at 4:05 PM

““Angry” Ohio voters back Romney 3:1.”

My people.

NoVAHockey on October 12, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Me likey your people :)

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 4:05 PM

Did anyone check, is the little poke&pole character on suicide watch yet?

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 4:00 PM

No, he’s furiously scanning the internet in search of one poll he can find to drop into the middle of this thread as irrefutable proof that Obama has this thing all locked up.

Right Mover on October 12, 2012 at 4:05 PM

““Angry” Ohio voters back Romney 3:1.”

My people.

NoVAHockey on October 12, 2012 at 4:01 PM

We call your people “very likely voters.”

Rational Thought on October 12, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Nov 7th headline: “BLS declares Obama victory, one state did not report”

faraway on October 12, 2012 at 4:09 PM

If Obama wins Ohio after what I saw that night, I’ll be shocked. The turnout from the rally of people bused in was a fraction of what the poll workers told to expect. Ten buses, max capacity 50-60 people. Sheriff on duty said one of the buses was only half full. You do the math. They closed at 9, and were expecting to still have a line out the door of people to process (direct words from the Democrat judge who was on staff that night – a super nice, welcoming guy, btw). By 8:30 you could have rolled tumbleweeds through the aisles.

tdpwells on October 12, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Who are they and where do they pick these people that are bused in? Are they homeless or low income, I mean I am serious, why do they need to be ‘bused in’ and how do they know in advance about pick up location, day, etc?? Don’t think I have ever heard in my life about people being bused in to vote, before I come to the US, and I lived in quite a few countries. Funnily enough, in Western Europe this practice would be associated with soialist and totalitarian regimes, ex- soviet union, etc…

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 4:11 PM

What will happen on Nov, 7th???…I worry about that…

PatriotRider on October 12, 2012 at 3:57 PM

.
You don’t need to be worried.

The African American voter turnout will be down substantially this year due to black preachers telling their congregations to stay home because of the SCOAMF’s gay marriage evolution.

This will draw a LOT of attention on Election Night after the polls close. (And ABSOLUTELY NONE from the LSM beforehand.)

People tend to lose sight of the fact that race riots decimate the neighborhoods of the people rioting.

People who are not willing to vote for Obama are not going to be willing to let a few hotheads burn down their neighborhoods.

PolAgnostic on October 12, 2012 at 4:15 PM

A GENDER GAP IS THE DIFFERENCE IN APPROVAL BETWEEN GENDERS, NOT THE ADDITION OF THE TWO. IF YOU ADD THE TWO TOGETHER, WITH ROUGHLY 50% MEN AND 50% WOMEN YOU JUST GET TO THE OVERALL ELECTION SPLIT!

YOU CANNOT CONTINUE TO DO ANALYSIS OF “GENDER GAPS” ON THIS TOTALLY STUPID MISUNDERSTANDING OF TERMS!!!!

jordan on October 12, 2012 at 4:16 PM

I can find the link, but there was a story about a month or so ago that interviewed a pollster. the gist of this was there was a subset of voters so angry and disillusioned that it basically had never been seen before in polling.

NoVAHockey on October 12, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Ugh, clean up needed on aisle 4:16!

22044 on October 12, 2012 at 4:25 PM

jordan on October 12, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Don’t shout.

kingsjester on October 12, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Seriously, maybe I’m overly optimistic but I just don’t see Obama winning Ohio again. The absence of yard signs/bumper stickers compared to four years ago is noticeable.

buckichick1 on October 12, 2012 at 3:55 PM

My family is from Eastern Ohio and 4 years ago the miners and power plant people all had Obama signs, I was there last week and the signs were replaced with “stop the war on Coal, fire Obama” signs. I took this as a pretty good omen.

hip shot on October 12, 2012 at 4:28 PM

…who are “optimistic” Oiho voters for Obama? …about what?

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 3:25 PM

OIHO – I see what you did there.

The “optimistic” voters are the ones who think it’s actually funny that 4 Americans were killed in Benghazi and that Iran is months away from building a nuke.

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 4:31 PM

joe biden just chimed in on gender gaps looks like.

t8stlikchkn on October 12, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Calling it now. Romney has this in the bag. Obama is sinking like a stone.

rubberneck on October 12, 2012 at 3:29 PM

“Great, kid! Don’t get cocky.” — Han Solo

Mary in LA on October 12, 2012 at 4:39 PM

those with an “obamaphone”?

runner on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM

That’s the D sample in the poll…

riddick on October 12, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Who are they and where do they pick these people that are bused in? Are they homeless or low income, I mean I am serious, why do they need to be ‘bused in’ and how do they know in advance about pick up location, day, etc?? Don’t think I have ever heard in my life about people being bused in to vote, before I come to the US, and I lived in quite a few countries. Funnily enough, in Western Europe this practice would be associated with soialist and totalitarian regimes, ex- soviet union, etc…

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Homeless, for the most part. Paid in HusseinPhone currency plus meals that day. Buses simply travel from city to city and register these bought botes as many times as they can.

riddick on October 12, 2012 at 4:45 PM

those with an “obamaphone”?

runner on October 12, 2012 at 3:28 PM
lol….the gift that keeps on giving!

Tim_CA on October 12, 2012 at 3:34 PM

I wonder if these phones are programmed to text a reminder to vote on NOV. 6? “You owe me”

KW64 on October 12, 2012 at 4:46 PM

I was there last week and the signs were replaced with “stop the war on Coal, fire Obama” signs. I took this as a pretty good omen.

hip shot on October 12, 2012 at 4:28 PM

.
No one mentions the statistical anomaly of voters switching their vote vs. new voters and turnout. Polls aside – is their anyone who voted for McCain switching to Hopey ? How about the other way- leaving Team Hopey ? I’d say a fair amount. A switched vote effects the margin of victory on BOTH sides of the column, where as a new vote changes only one side.

In Florida, Hopey won by 240,000 votes on 8.8 million cast. It only requires 125,000 votes to switch to Team Super Mitt- to erase that 2008 vote margin win here- sans new voters. 125k votes is about 1.5% of the total.

Do you think hope has lost AT LEAST 1.5% from 4 years ago? You Betcha !

This is why the polls are bolshevik !

FlaMurph on October 12, 2012 at 4:53 PM

I wonder if these phones are programmed to text a reminder to vote on NOV. 6? “You owe me”

KW64 on October 12, 2012 at 4:46 PM

At a marketing conference shortly after the 2008 election I attended a session led by the digital marketing company that had helped Obama win in 2008.

Obama’s cell phone strategies were quite sophisticated in 2008 from a marketing perspective.

For example, they described an app that their supporters could download that would would prioritize the phone numbers in the cell phone owners address book so they could easily make “get out the vote” calls to their friends and family.

Do not underestimate the marketing strategies that Team Obama will be using this year to get their supporters to vote.

wren on October 12, 2012 at 5:00 PM

I wonder if these phones are programmed to text a reminder to vote on NOV. 6? “You owe me”

KW64 on October 12, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Hmmm.
Hackers wanted…to change that reminder to November 7.

22044 on October 12, 2012 at 5:02 PM

“… but I was curious, so I took the latest RCP electoral map and put CO, MO, FL, NC, VA, WI & NH to Romney.”

Why would you put WI in Romney’s column?

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 5:04 PM

What are Republican volunteers doing in Ohio to help Mitt Romney get enough votes to win Ohio with a margin of victory greater than the margin of fraud?

If Ohio is this close, we need all hands on deck to help Mitt Romney win!

wren on October 12, 2012 at 5:05 PM

is there anyone who voted for McCain switching to Hopey ?

FlaMurph on October 12, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Well, Rmoney didn’t have to pick Palin to get me to not abstain, that’s for sure.

Lanceman on October 12, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Heh. gutmeandpokeme.

Lanceman on October 12, 2012 at 5:07 PM

For example, they described an app that their supporters could download that would would prioritize the phone numbers in the cell phone owners address book so they could easily make “get out the vote” calls to their friends and family.

Do not underestimate the marketing strategies that Team Obama will be using this year to get their supporters to vote.

wren on October 12, 2012 at 5:00 PM

No underestimating on my part. What you describe is all the more reason giving out free phones (well, not free for the taxpayer) was such a big imperative.

KW64 on October 12, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Seriously, maybe I’m overly optimistic but I just don’t see Obama winning Ohio again. The absence of yard signs/bumper stickers compared to four years ago is noticeable.

buckichick1 on October 12, 2012 at 3:55 PM

My brother in the Cleveland area said the same thing.

Animal60 on October 12, 2012 at 5:28 PM

…VIRTUAL VICTORY!

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 3:23 PM

..shall we not hold the election in OIHO and just “deem it” a victory?

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Why would you put WI in Romney’s column?

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 5:04 PM

You were saying the same thing about VA and FL 2 days ago.

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Why would you put WI in Romney’s column?

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 5:04 PM


..why would you have a Guatemalan pool-boy live-in lover?

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 5:36 PM

“You were saying the same thing about VA and FL 2 days ago.

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 5:34 PM”

True, but Romney finally increased his ad buys there, which helped him.

In WI, it’s still all Obama, all the time. Gov Walker was just on the radio and said he thinks some more ad money will come in.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Yes sir. gutmeandpokeme.

Lanceman on October 12, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Bet DumbyandDopey is crying in his bowl of soggy Lucky Charms right about now.

RavingLunatic on October 12, 2012 at 5:50 PM

This is why the polls are bolshevik !

FlaMurph on October 12, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Would that make them pollshevik?

That sounds like a good nickname for a certain poll-dancing troll we know!

Benedict Nelson on October 12, 2012 at 5:58 PM

While the polling is going in the right direction, Ohio as the key to victory bothers me for a couple reasons:

1. It’s bought and paid for with the auto bailout and Obama’s lies that were GM to have gone into bankruptcy all the auto jobs would have simply disappeared into thin air.

2. Union strength and local gov’t corruption. The unions got organized over the collective bargaining law and that’s not likely to have dissipated much. Also, remember the attack on Joe the Plumber? Yeah, that was facilitated by state government officials, who also did little to stop Acorn.

I’ll be a lot more comfortable once Romney puts some states that, on paper, appear tougher to get in his column. I think WI or PA will go for Romney before Ohio does.

Dead Hand Control on October 12, 2012 at 3:34 PM

As someone who was born and raised in Ohio and still has family there, people keep putting too much emphasis on the GM bailout in regard to Ohio. Most of the auto industry jobs in the state are with Honda or companies that support Honda. I grew up in Marysville Ohio which is where the first and largest Honda plant in the country is located. The unions have been trying to get into Honda since they opened the plant in 1979 and each and every time they have been denied and Honda is still thriving in the state. On the other hand many Delphi and GM plants in Western Ohio have closed. Basically what I’m getting at is… don’t worry about Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 12, 2012 at 5:59 PM

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