SurveyUSA poll shows virtual tie in Ohio

posted at 3:21 pm on October 12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The topline results from SurveyUSA’s poll in Ohio earlier this week might at first blush look like good news for Barack Obama.  After all, he still leads Mitt Romney, if by a single point, in a state that Republicans almost certainly have to win to deny Obama a second term. However, the poll taken in the three days after Obama’s debate flop only shows him with 45% support, in a sample that has a significant Democratic advantage:

In an election for Ohio’s 18 vital electoral votes today, 10/09/12, one week after Buckeye voting began and 4 weeks till votes are counted, Barack Obama is at 45% to Mitt Romney’s 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV, NBC4 in Columbus. Obama’s advantage is within the survey’s possible sources of error and may or may not be significant.

It’s a dead heat, or at least it was earlier this week.  But an incumbent at 45% with four weeks to go in an election is in deep trouble, especially when the sample has a D+6 advantage.  The D/R/I on this poll is 39/33/25, which is defensible, but only if one thinks that the turnout model will come close to 2008′s 39/31/30.  The turnout in Ohio two years ago was 36/37/28 for an R+1, and there isn’t much evidence to declare that Democratic enthusiasm has returned to Ohio.

In fact, as SurveyUSA breaks down the figures themselves, the opposite seems true:

“Optimistic” Ohio voters back Obama 4:1. “Worried” Ohio voters back Romney 2:1. “Angry” Ohio voters back Romney 3:1.
Romney leads among voters who are married. Obama leads among voters who are single, divorced or widowed. …
Ohio voters, narrowly, say Romney would do a better job balancing the federal budget.
Ohio voters split on who would do better at keeping America safe.
Ohio voters say Obama is more in touch with the average person.

The key in Ohio will almost certainly be independent voters, and they break sharply toward Romney.  He leads 44/35, with 12% still undecided and 9% claiming to vote for “other.”  That means that Obama has to make up nine points and get out of the mid-30s in less than 28 days among a group that he won in 2008 by eight points, 52/44.  In other words, Romney has already matched the level of John McCain with Ohio independents, but Obama is seventeen points below his 2008 pace.

Can Obama make it up among “optimistic” voters?  That’s unlikely.  Only 36% of all likely voters surveyed consider themselves “optimistic,” while 60% consider themselves either “worried and concerned” or “frustrated and angry.”  Among independents, that’s a 28/69 split.

Finally, let’s look at the gender gap.  In 2008, Obama won the gender gap in Ohio over McCain by eleven points — three among men and eight among women.  In this SUSA poll, Obama has a +4 in the gender gap, as Romney leads by seven among men and Obama leads by 11 among women.  He only gets to 40% among men, though, and since only 35% of men consider themselves “optimistic,” he’s probably near his ceiling.

An incumbent who can’t get out of the mid-40s overall, or even into the 40s among independent voters, with four weeks to go is not on track for a win.  Romney has a big opening here to close the deal in the Buckeye State.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

True, but Romney finally increased his ad buys there, which helped him.

In WI, it’s still all Obama, all the time. Gov Walker was just on the radio and said he thinks some more ad money will come in.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Walker? You said he was a goner.

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 6:01 PM

RCP has Wisconsin within the margin of error.

Rasmussen 10/9 O’bamna +2
C-BS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/4-10/8 O’bamna +3
PPP (D) 10/4-10/6 O’bamna +2

RCP Wisconsin Average = O’bamna +2.3 = TIE

RCP has already tossed the previous “polls” taken before the debate from their average; one of those (Marquette, 9/27-9/30) had O’bamna up by 11.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html#polls

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Where’s Rasmussen today on the National Number?

CW on October 12, 2012 at 6:10 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012

You keep proving yourself the joke.

Say have you ckd out RCP today?

Which stated do you live in? You’re such the liar.

I caught you lying several times. Let me say this: I don’t believe a word or a prediction you made. (See Walker).

CW on October 12, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Where’s Rasmussen today on the National Number?

CW on October 12, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Depends on the Gumbo. Do they have Warren beating Brown by 9,000%?

Lanceman on October 12, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Where’s Rasmussen today on the National Number?

CW on October 12, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Same as yesterday, Romney +1

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Wait I thought the jobs numbers were the ATOMIC BOMB!!

bwahahahaah hahahahaha wbwhahwahaha

Hilarious.

CW on October 12, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Lanceman on October 12, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Still waiting for new results out of MA after the final Brown/Warren Pow-Wow…

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 6:23 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Do you want to know a secret? Everyone knows you’re bullshit but you. You’re not voting for Romney and you don’t want to see him win.

Do you want to know why it’s so patently easy to pin you down as as a Moby and pulling for Obama? You have not once shown one bit of enthusiasm for the poll trends turning. And it has distinctively. Enough to win yet? I wouldn’t bet the farm on anything the donks can cheat at. But the trend is obviously moving steadily in one direction and all you can do is discount and lament it. I have never read one comment from you that starts with a “Wow, this looks promising.” Or … “I’m still a skeptic but this gives me hope.”

Do us a favor and drop the facade.

hawkdriver on October 12, 2012 at 6:31 PM

The turnout in Ohio two years ago was 36/37/28 for an R+1, and there isn’t much evidence to declare that Democratic enthusiasm has returned to Ohio.

This.

By the way that RCP electoral map is wishful thinking. Main flipped red in 2010. Dems lost hard. NH flipped red and the dems were CRUSHED. RCP has them lean to Obama and toss up respectively. They aren’t.

Wisconsin? Seriously? Dems just got ass whupped there not once but twice, and I will wager the people there are itching to do it again.

This poll with a 2010 sample shows Romney ahead in Ohio.

Zero’s campaign is imploding.

dogsoldier on October 12, 2012 at 6:31 PM

As far as road signs I can add in that there has been an explosion of Romney/Ryan (and Josh Mandel) signs in the suburbs of Akron and Canton I drive arond in the last couple weeks.

As someone who was born and raised in Ohio and still has family there, people keep putting too much emphasis on the GM bailout in regard to Ohio. Most of the auto industry jobs in the state are with Honda or companies that support Honda. I grew up in Marysville Ohio which is where the first and largest Honda plant in the country is located. The unions have been trying to get into Honda since they opened the plant in 1979 and each and every time they have been denied and Honda is still thriving in the state. On the other hand many Delphi and GM plants in Western Ohio have closed. Basically what I’m getting at is… don’t worry about Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 12, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Pretty much, the GM bailout and unions are not why Obama is doing better here. Part of it is polling issues like constantly oversampling democrats, another part is the fact that Obama is blanketting Ohio more than any other state, but also it does relate to the fact that for the first time in decades Ohio is doing better economically than the nation as whole. Not just doing ok while the nation does bad, but doing pretty well under an circumstance.

The unemployment rate has fallen signifcantly and is bellow the nation, there has been a manufacturing boom here (only partially related to the GM bailout), the state budget isn’t in shambles anymore, Ohio attracted more companies than any other state in 2011, a recent poll showed Ohioans more optimistic than Americans for the first time in practically ever, and I checked several recent polls and fewer Ohioans than Americans think things are going in the wrong direction.

A lot of this is thanks to Governor Kasich and the Republican State House changing policies and enacting reforms, but Romney never mentions it. All the ads I see are about how horrible everything is, how manufacturing is doing terrible, and did I mention everything is horrible. I don’t blame marginal information Ohio voters from seeing those ads and saying, umm, no they’re not. Many Republicans have asked Romney to stop the all gloom all the time everywhere routine and mention how he’ll copy the efforts of successful Republican governors like Kasich, Walker, McDonnell, and Perry. He refuses though and so Ohio is closer than it should be, but I still think Romny wins by 2-4 pts.

jarodea on October 12, 2012 at 6:48 PM

I just finished watching Romney/Ryan rally on C-Span. They are in Ohio.

Romney spoke about the responsibility we have as Americans to keep the American ideal alive, about freedom and a prosperous future. For the first time in what feels like many many years I believed in “Morning in America.” I was actually tearing up listening to Mitt Romney.

I’m a conservative, so I use my brain not my emotions to choose my candidate. But I have to say that Mitt is really beginning to connect. He told personal stories and sounded just so sincere, not coached, scripted, wooden, or awkward. He was actually inspiring.

I don’t know what happened last week at that debate. If this is the “let Mitt be Mitt” strategy then I must heartily apologize for my skepticism of this man. I was vehemently anti-Mitt during the primaries and resented his win. Proof of the pudding will be in how he performs on the job of course, but wow. I have never had my opinion of a politician change as much as this. And I’m seeing it all over the conservative media.

For the first time in many years I will be able to pull that presidential lever for a man I like. It will be nice to leave my anti-nausea meds and noseplugs at home this year.

Equitare

equitare on October 12, 2012 at 6:48 PM

For the first time in many years I will be able to pull that presidential lever for a man I like. It will be nice to leave my anti-nausea meds and noseplugs at home this year.

Equitare

equitare on October 12, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Agreed…..

Exactly how I feel about Mitt Romney.. He was not my first choice, but he he the best choice..

mark81150 on October 12, 2012 at 8:17 PM

It will be frustrating if another election is determined by one state. I’m all for the electoral college system, but can we please combine it with some sort of popular vote system so that my vote in California doesn’t always seem wasted? To paraphrase Rush from the other day, “they have to call out a search party to find a Conservative in California.

Decoski on October 12, 2012 at 11:28 PM

Comment pages: 1 2