Rasmussen: Romney goes above 50% in Florida

posted at 2:01 pm on October 12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

In more swing-state news, a new Rasmussen poll in Florida maintains the Mitt Romney momentum narrative — albeit narrowly.  For the first time, Romney has broken through the majority barrier to take a small four-point lead over Barack Obama, 51/47:

Mitt Romney has crossed the 50% mark for the first time to widen his lead to four points in Florida.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Romney with 51% support to President Obama’s 47%. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This is the widest gap between the candidates in surveys this year, but Florida remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Prior to these findings, the candidates have been within two points of each other in Florida in every survey since April. Last week, it was Romney 49%, Obama 47%.

Obama carried Florida over John McCain in 2008 by a 51% to 49% margin.

Suffolk bailed out of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina earlier this week, but this doesn’t exactly look dominating — at least not yet.  This comes within the margin of error, if to the outer edges of it, and a lot can happen in three-plus weeks.  It’s the first time either candidate has shown any Sunshine State momentum in this poll series, but even that’s not fully substantiated in this survey.

The internals, though, look pretty devastating.  The partisan split is an R+1, almost the same as the 36/36/29 2010 midterms, but with fewer independents at 39/38/23.  The shortchanging of independents hurts Romney more than Obama, though, as Romney has a sixteen-point lead among unaffiliated voters, 54/38.  Obama won independents in 2008 by seven, 52/45, in a D+3 turnout at 37/37/29.

Similarly, Rasmussen slightly oversamples women (56%) compared to 2008 (53%).  That also doesn’t help Romney, as Obama wins women by eight points, 53/45.  However, Romney wins men by eighteen points, 58/40, for an overall gender advantage of +10.  In 2008, Obama had a gender advantage over John McCain of +9 (+4 among men and +5 among women).  That’s a nineteen-point switch in the gap.

Furthermore, Romney now leads on the two big issue questions asked by Rasmussen in this poll.  On the economy, a majority of voters trust him more over Obama, 51/45.  A majority also trusts him more on national security, but that’s within the MoE at 50/47.  Obama’s job approval is slightly under water at 48/51, but 45% strongly disapprove.

The internals paint a much more formidable picture of Romney’s strength in Florida than the topline does.  We’ll see if his momentum grows in the next poll series, but a 16-point lead among independents with three weeks to go against an incumbent looks very good for the challenger.


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It’s the momentum!

Oink on October 12, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Clink*

Bishop!

PolAgnostic on October 12, 2012 at 2:02 PM

The thrill is gone.

Thud.

FlaMurph on October 12, 2012 at 2:03 PM

We’ll know Obama’s given up when the shredder trucks show up at the White House.

JEM on October 12, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Dont worry, Willard will win Florida. Quite a few of my neighbors voted for Obama in 2008 and are voting Willard in 2012. Some of them are actually very liberal.

Valkyriepundit on October 12, 2012 at 2:06 PM

I love delusional leftists.

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:06 PM

The shortchanging of independents hurts Romney more than Obama, though, as Romney has a sixteen-point lead among unaffiliated voters, 54/38.

Can’t wait to see what the indies think of Sheriff Joe’s antics.

a capella on October 12, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Tuesday is our next hurdle. Mitt needs to outclass Barry and pound him into the ground so to speak.

We are SOOOO close!

gophergirl on October 12, 2012 at 2:07 PM

I think Biden’s portrayal last night — as an unserious, bloviating, windbag — convinced voters nationwide that neither the top or the bottom of the Democratic ticket can be trusted to lead in serious times.

Now we know why Ryan kept that confident smile, watching Biden make a fool of himself.

VastRightWingConspirator on October 12, 2012 at 2:07 PM

So where’s the ATOM BOMB??

tkyang99 on October 12, 2012 at 2:07 PM

I love delusional leftists.

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Yeah but the comments after are good…

sandee on October 12, 2012 at 2:08 PM

“Up by only four, 51/47.”

..any port in a storm. On other matters, BendMeOverAndPokeMe discovered carrying an old package of Gillette Blue Blades and weeping disconsolately.

Guatemalan pool-boy lover nowhere in sight.

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Rasmussen: Romney goes above 50% in Florida

Everywhere you look Obama is plummeting like a stone. I wonder why?

Joe Biden, Paul Ryan and Bibi’s “Red Line” time line.

SWalker on October 12, 2012 at 2:09 PM

The administration has handled Benghazi going up in flames by resorting to lies and the maniacal laughter of Big Bird Biden.

America recoils in horror and disgust.

INC on October 12, 2012 at 2:10 PM

The game is over. The left doesn’t realize it yet.

This is 1980 redux. Once debate ended, election over.

kevinkristy on October 12, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Even in California Obama is loosing the independents in a big way.

Obama carried the Golden State by 24 points in 2008, so the poll found Obama is now running 10 points weaker than he ran 4 years ago. Among Independents, Obama led by 14 in September, but now trails by 9 in October, a 23-point right turn among the most coveted voters.

SWalker on October 12, 2012 at 2:11 PM

All that was missing last night for Biden was a big red nose and oversize shoes..

sandee on October 12, 2012 at 2:11 PM

The Suffolk Polls pullout has more going on behind the scenes and under the surface for my money.

A good poller should be working really hard at this point forecasting turnout and final vote split.

If Suffolks work in those areas was showing D +0 or R +3, as hypotheticals, then the forecast vote percentages sould easily have had Romney at 52% or better in the states they decided to pull out of … for now.

My recollection of the interview was he did caveat about “unless additional developments warrant our returning.”

A related thought – Who in the Hades in the SCOAMF campaign thought bellicose rudeness and arrogance would win hearts and votes in Southern States?

Hmmmmmmmmm, maybe someone who is use to doing things the Chicago Way?!?

PolAgnostic on October 12, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Have yall seen this ad??? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnX7TNFIELg

Donald Draper on October 12, 2012 at 2:13 PM

I love delusional leftists.
Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:06 PM

We can only hope that Obama will come out and act like Joe. Romney will tear him to shreds!

mrscullen on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

So, they under-sampled independents, oversampled women, and Romney is still above 50%, while Obama’s approval only reaches 48%.

Methinks Suffolk was probably right about pulling out there. If an opponent has a 51% advantage in the last three weeks of a campaign, it’s unlikely its going to be reversed.

WolvenOne on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

The Obama Experiment is coming to it’s conclusion. FAIL

portlandon on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Why are we outside FL seeing the polls looking not so good for Connie Mack?

I thought his Penny Mack plan was so smart.

I don’t know much about Florida.

Fleuries on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Donald Draper on October 12, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Good ad.
91K hits is good (it had less than 1K when I viewed it a couple of days ago).

22044 on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Hey trolls, tell us again how the Univision special about Fast and Furious would have no effect on the election.

A new, exclusive News 13 Florida Decides Poll shows a new leader in the presidential race and a significant shakeup of opinions among Floridians, with potential national ramifications.

The latest results, released Thursday, show Republican Mitt Romney with a 7-point lead over President Barack Obama.

When asked which ticket would get their vote if the general election were held today, 51 percent of the 800 registered Florida voters polled picked Romney, with 44 percent choosing Obama.

[snip]

The biggest change seen from September’s poll to this month’s were among women, Hispanics and voters who identify with neither major party.

In September, 51 percent of independent voters said they preferred President Obama, and 40 percent said they would vote for Mitt Romney.

Just three weeks later, that vote has flipped, with 52 percent supporting Romney and just 39 percent backing the president.

Among women polled a month ago, 55 percent said they would vote for Obama, and 40 percent for Romney.

Now, that gap has narrowed significantly, with just 49 percent of women choosing Obama, and 47 percent supporting Romney.

The Republican nominee also gained support among men, with a three-point gain to 56 percent, while votes for Obama dropped the same amount.

Four percent of both men and women said they were still undecided, and 1 percent of men chose a third-party candidate.

Breaking it demographically by race, Romney still held the majority of white voters, with 61 percent, while 94 percent of black voters said they support Obama.

The Hispanic vote, however, saw a noticeable shift, with many dropping their support for Obama. Source

Flora Duh on October 12, 2012 at 2:17 PM

I’m actually more worried about the Senate right now than the presidency. Rasmussen has a WI poll today putting Thompson down 51-47.

Mark1971 on October 12, 2012 at 2:18 PM

CHANGE THE MAP! FEEL THE RED!

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 2:21 PM

This debate changes everything. Last week it was, “holy crap, that guy is President?” Now it’s “holy crap, that guy is VP?””

— Iowahawk

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:21 PM

We can only hope that Obama will come out and act like Joe. Romney will tear him to shreds!

mrscullen on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Joe Biden shot himself in the foot last night. If he had toned down his demeanor, the media would be declaring victory for him right now, but as it is, ‘no clear winner’ seems to be the best any major news outlet can come up with. Lefties cheer him of course, because being as nasty as Joe was is par for the course with them. It’s what they wanted to see because it’s what they are.

The next 2 debates don’t mean as much as the first two. Not as many people will be watching, opinions are solidifying right now. Early voting has been well under way for awhile. Obama and Biden will find it harder to move the needle.

We just have to keep our eye on the ball from here on out and we’ve got this.

Corporal Tunnel on October 12, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Only seven stupid states in the nation

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:22 PM

I’m actually more worried about the Senate right now than the presidency. Rasmussen has a WI poll today putting Thompson down 51-47.
Mark1971 on October 12, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Just give up on the senate. It’s a lost cause.

mrscullen on October 12, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Why are we outside FL seeing the polls looking not so good for Connie Mack?

Fleuries on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Because they’re not. Connie Mack is an egotistical snob who thinks he deserves the seat just because of his name. He’s also done some irresponsible things in his life that Bill Nelson is blasting all over TV and radio. Unfortunately they appear to be hitting their mark.

Still, he’ll get my vote before Nelson does.

Flora Duh on October 12, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Promising trends. Now, keep the boot on the throat and press harder.

SouthernGent on October 12, 2012 at 2:25 PM

This thing will be over if Mittens can have another solid performance on Tuesday. Cuz I don’t see that foreign policy debate a week from Monday helping Obama much.

Doughboy on October 12, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Wait until the atom bomb polls on November 7, 2012. Thats when Obama will regain the momentum.

/s/ Gumby

milcus on October 12, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Why are we outside FL seeing the polls looking not so good for Connie Mack?

Fleuries on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Nelson buried Mack with ads early; and I have see hardly any Mack ads on TV.

lorien1973 on October 12, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Only seven stupid states in the nation

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:22 PM

I’m trying to wrap my head around Drudge’s headline. If you click on the ‘Solid Obama’ link below ‘Likely Obama’ on RCP’s map there are exactly 10 states solidly for Obama. There are also 7 states ‘Likely’ or ‘Leaning’ for Obama. That’s 17, but the Drudge headline says ‘Obama lock under 10 states.’ Does Drudge mean that Obama’s firewall is less than 10 states? Obama’s total is certainly more than that. I don’t understand the headline.

Corporal Tunnel on October 12, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Obama has only one path to victory left now and that is to convince people that Romney is heartless and uncompassionate. There is nothing left that he can defend about his record, he tried that at the first debate and it didn’t get him anywhere. And he also knows he can’t really “out-debate” Romney, after the 1st debate he realized that he’s no match for an ex-CEO with 20 years of executive experience, so he’s not gonna try that either. So the only strategy left for him is to portray Romney as uncaring, so he’s gonna bring up the GM bailout and “Romney wants GM to go bankrupt” thing at least 20 times at the debate. That’s my prediction.

tkyang99 on October 12, 2012 at 2:30 PM

MSM: “But, Obama is still ahead”

faraway on October 12, 2012 at 2:31 PM

We will dump Barky….

But will end up with Nelson for more 6 years

FlaMurph on October 12, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Joe Biden shot himself in the foot last night. If he had toned down his demeanor, the media would be declaring victory for him right now, but as it is, ‘no clear winner’ seems to be the best any major news outlet can come up with. Lefties cheer him of course, because being as nasty as Joe was is par for the course with them. It’s what they wanted to see because it’s what they are.

The next 2 debates don’t mean as much as the first two. Not as many people will be watching, opinions are solidifying right now. Early voting has been well under way for awhile. Obama and Biden will find it harder to move the needle.

We just have to keep our eye on the ball from here on out and we’ve got this.

Corporal Tunnel on October 12, 2012 at 2:21 PM

I agree. I think he would have been declared the clear winner had he not behaved so boorishly, and the storyline today would instead be ‘Is Paul Ryan ready to be veep’ garbage.

changer1701 on October 12, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Does Drudge mean that Obama’s firewall is less than 10 states? Obama’s total is certainly more than that. I don’t understand the headline.

Corporal Tunnel on October 12, 2012 at 2:28 PM

He means that solid Obama states are less than 10.

lorien1973 on October 12, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Why are we outside FL seeing the polls looking not so good for Connie Mack?

I thought his Penny Mack plan was so smart.

I don’t know much about Florida.

Fleuries on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Very early on Nelson did more than an effective job in demonizing Mack as the party boy, spends more time in Calif than in D.C., etc.
When Mack finally got on air, he did soft ads…only recently have I seen an ad from him that at least used Nelson’s record.

I am disappointed in the effort as I am in Karen Harrington v DWS.

They are not fighting.

CoffeeLover on October 12, 2012 at 2:32 PM

We’ll know Obama’s given up when the shredder trucks show up at the White House.

JEM on October 12, 2012 at 2:04 PM

We just got to watch when the moving truck pulls up to see what gets loaded into the truck. Obama already lied to us. They say a liar is worse than a thief, but you never know if Obama wants both titles.

timberline on October 12, 2012 at 2:33 PM

I live in Orlando. Right smack in the middle of it in an upper-middle class neighborhood.

On my drive back from the Publix, I can count 15 Romney signs and only 3 Obama signs.

I’m pretty pumped that my state that electred Alan freakin’ Grayson in 2008 will atone for our sins and put Romney over the top.

Of course, there are the Disney unions here….

Defenestratus on October 12, 2012 at 2:33 PM

@gretawire: President Obama’s campaign rips Rep. Paul Ryan’s debate performance in new web video: Watch this new web video t… http://t.co/umYA3YYg

mrscullen on October 12, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Have yall seen this ad??? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnX7TNFIELg

Donald Draper on October 12, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Simple, eloquent, excellent. The best part is that no one can label him a liar because of his personal background. This is one to talk up amongst undecideds.

The point he makes about the left’s tendency to ignore the lessons of history is a critical one. It testifies to the vapid thinking of so many Obama followers who thumb their nose at the repeated failures of socialist policies worldwide during the past century.

Boiled down, this is exactly the message that needs to be brought home every time the “tax the wealthy even more” idea comes up on the left. (“At some point you’ve made enough money,” etc.)

Thanks for sharing and giving me something positive to watch this morning. I still have a gag reflex kick in every time I think of Biden’s boorish behavior last night.

pianomomma on October 12, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Yeah Connie Mack smear ads are all over TV. Nelson is going to win, unfortunately.

Defenestratus on October 12, 2012 at 2:34 PM

However, Romney wins men by eighteen points, 58/40

Well, that just proves that men are racists.

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:34 PM

For the first time, Romney has broken through the majority barrier to take a small four-point lead over Barack Obama, 51/47:

*breaks into Biden’s crazy-assed smile*

TXUS on October 12, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Of course, there are the Disney unions here….

Defenestratus on October 12, 2012 at 2:33 PM

We need to go mouse hunting in your state.

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Just give up on the senate. It’s a lost cause.

mrscullen on October 12, 2012 at 2:24 PM

It’s clearly not. I have said for months, Republicans will have 53 votes, or more, in the Senate after the election (and that does not even include that I believe that Joe Manchin might switch parties). As Romney closes in polls and/or increases his leads, that will affect down-ticket races. Once it becomes apparant that Obama will lose (after next Tuesday), the Democrat enthusiam will drop, which means that Dems like Nelson, Kaine, Baldwin, Tester, Menendez, Murphy, etc.. will be in deep trouble.

milcus on October 12, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Also watch the stock market closely. It can be a good indicator of how people feel about the economy. It’s been down lately due to the recent rash of earnings downgrades and warnings, which just reminds people again that, gee, the world economy is in pretty rotten shape, and no signs of getting better. That isn’t good for Obama.

tkyang99 on October 12, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Off topic

30 million watched the debate on mainstream media alone. I wonder what the number will be when cable and online viewers are added? 45 million? 50 million?

Capitalist Infidel on October 12, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Only seven stupid states in the nation

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:22 PM

So that leaves what, 50 smart states? ;-)

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Only seven stupid states in the nation

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:22 PM

So that leaves what, 50 smart states? ;-)

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:39 PM

ROTFLMAO………. Thread winnar……. ;p

SWalker on October 12, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Flora Duh on October 12, 2012 at 2:17 PM

That’s great news.

magicbeans on October 12, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Also watch the stock market closely. It can be a good indicator of how people feel about the economy. It’s been down lately due to the recent rash of earnings downgrades and warnings, which just reminds people again that, gee, the world economy is in pretty rotten shape, and no signs of getting better. That isn’t good for Obama.

tkyang99 on October 12, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Had lunch with a couple of relatives yesterday; they live in the ultra Bleu state of CT. They have taken a huge hit over the past 4 years of O’bamna and can’t wait to get rid of him, as they make a large chunk of their income from investments.

They also told me that the unions have destroyed the Nutmeg State.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Romney, Ryan, the RNC, and all Republican commentators should never let a Dem get away unchecked with saying “going back to the failed economic policies that got us into this mess in the first place”. This happens all the time and Ryan let Biden get away with it last night as well. It is soooo frustrating. It was government regulations that caused the financial collapse by forcing banks to give loans to people that could not afford them. Whose regulations? Democrats!!!!

Every Republican pundit should respond to that quote each and every time no matter how tired that get from responding! I’m tired myself from yelling at the television when they continually don’t respond!

Republigator on October 12, 2012 at 2:41 PM

So, where is Kunta Kinte or Dutch or any of the other poll trolls?

And I agree with Limbaugh, I was suspicious of the poll data when it had Obama up, and I’d remain suspicious until 6 November.

JFKY on October 12, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Even in California Obama is loosing the independents in a big way.

SWalker on October 12, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Is California a “winner take all” state in terms of electoral votes?

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Moochelle is calling for quotes from movers.

bayview on October 12, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Rassussen has VA, NC, and FL as toss ups. I think those are Romney states, at least likely.

So, I see Romney at 238 right now. If he can pull in OH, HN, and MO that brings him to 270.

That’s means needs to get one more state…CO, NV, IA, MI, or WI. Long shots are PA and OR.

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Once it becomes apparant that Obama will lose (after next Tuesday), the Democrat enthusiam will drop, which means that Dems like Nelson, Kaine, Baldwin, Tester, Menendez, Murphy, etc.. will be in deep trouble.

milcus on October 12, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Menendez? As in Menendez (Douche-NJ)? You wish! The most populated state counties, Essex and (aptly named) Union are pasted all over with his ads. These counties are also chock full of “underpriviliged” human trash, most of them Muslims, Latino, or Black. It doesn’t help that Chris Christie is in OH and PA, instead of working his usual wonders here at home, and that his opponent Joe Kyrillos is a limp-wristed sissy incapable of decent fundraising. So, much as I would love otherwise, New Jersey is a lost cause in 2012.

Archivarix on October 12, 2012 at 2:46 PM

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Yes, I think they want to change it so who ever wins the popular vote wins CA electral votes.

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 2:46 PM

It’s clearly not. I have said for months, Republicans will have 53 votes, or more, in the Senate after the election (and that does not even include that I believe that Joe Manchin might switch parties). As Romney closes in polls and/or increases his leads, that will affect down-ticket races. Once it becomes apparant that Obama will lose (after next Tuesday), the Democrat enthusiam will drop, which means that Dems like Nelson, Kaine, Baldwin, Tester, Menendez, Murphy, etc.. will be in deep trouble.

milcus on October 12, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Well, we know Obama will be declared the winner Tuesday…there’s NO way the media writes anything otherwise, because they know the last debate will prove trickier for him and they want him to establish some mo.

changer1701 on October 12, 2012 at 2:48 PM

This poll is GREAT news for Romney, if he’s winning Indies by 16 points. If Indies make up 30% of the electorate, that’s worth 4.8% of the total electorate, and the Democrats would have to turn out at D+5 or better to overcome Romney’s lead among Independents. Florida has a higher population of seniors than most states, and Paul Ryan’s message of saving Medicare by repealing ObamaCare is music to their ears.

Still, Florida is a tough state to poll due to its size and diversity of populations–heavily Democrat in the southeast (Palm Beach / Fort Lauderdale), heavily Republican in the Panhandle and southwest Gulf coast, and very changeable along the I-4 corridor (Tampa/Orlando/Daytona) and greater Miami. Poll results will depend not only on the partisan makeup of the sample, but the number of sampled voters from each geographical region of the state.

Steve Z on October 12, 2012 at 2:48 PM

D+3 turnout at 37/37/29

This isn’t d +3, plus it equals 103%. Too lazy to look up correct numbers — 37/34/29 maybe?

Timin203 on October 12, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Yes, I think they want to change it so who ever wins the popular vote wins CA electral votes.

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Thanks.

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Menendez? As in Menendez (Douche-NJ)? You wish! The most populated state counties, Essex and (aptly named) Union are pasted all over with his ads.

Archivarix on October 12, 2012 at 2:46 PM

I’ve been seeing a lot of ads for both Moron-ez and Joe Kyrillos on the Philly-area TV stations. Kyrillos would get my vote if I still lived in that sh1thole New Jersey. Menendez gives me the creeps, he has that pedophlie look about him.

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:53 PM

It’s the turnout stupid….

The right will experience a very high turnout in this election, that the MSM will call “Unexpected” lol ..

Romney/Ryan will win going away..

The pollsters got their heads up their collective asses..

RockyJ. on October 12, 2012 at 2:57 PM

He means that solid Obama states are less than 10.

lorien1973 on October 12, 2012 at 2:32 PM

But… Obama’s solid states are 10 exactly, according to the RCP map he’s linking to.

I just think the headline is a bit sensational and untrue.

Normally, I find Drudge to be acceptable, though.

Corporal Tunnel on October 12, 2012 at 2:57 PM

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Could the electoral college become obsolete in 2012? It’s not likely, but that’s not stopping some states from trying.

In California, Governor Jerry Brown has signed a new bill which aims to allot all of the state’s 55 electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote. California is now the eighth state to approve such legislation.

But some critics are questioning whether the bill is constitutional.

(Doesn’t this means that CA could be in play)???

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Just came back from Miami after a visit with my 89 year old Dad.

Had dinner with my cousin and her Israeli husband. The husband is a Liberal, but is very pro-Israel. He was going to vote for McCain, but changed his mind after he picked Palin. He’s a blowhard who thinks he knows everything there is to know about Conservatives, but all he knows is the propaganda that he ingests from the MSM (“Rush Limbaugh is the leader of the Republican party”, “all Republicans care about is money”, “Ben Bernanke is a genius”).

Well, they’re both voting for Romney (their son recently became a doctor, and he’s none to pleased with Obamacare). My Dad, who never voted for a Republican for POTUS, will either vote for Romney or stay home on election day. He said that he doesn’t know one Jew who voted for Obama who is voting for him again.

ardenenoch on October 12, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Why are we outside FL seeing the polls looking not so good for Connie Mack?

Fleuries on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

In addition to what others have said, Connie Mack is from an old political dynasty family, and IMHO that’s all he has going for him.

This whole senario has been party power politics. This is also my opinion–I have no inside knowledge–

Mack entered the race late. Adam Hasner, former Florida House of Representatives majority leader, was running, and at the time he was my favorite. He’s a conservative and I believe had won the FL CPAC vote.

George LeMieux, former U.S. Senator, appointed by Crist to finish Martinez’ term was also running. I thought he did a good job when he was there.

During the FL primary Mack’s father, a former US senator, was going around with Romney. Connie Mack (who is about CM the IV or something) was hanging around and got face time.

After the FL primary was over, suddenly some things happened. The FL legislature, playing around with redistricting, fiddled with Col West’s district. Hasner dropped out–pushed out IMHO–and it was decided that Hasner would run where West’s old district was, and West would run in the new cobbled district. I don’t live down there so I don’t know the geography. BTW, this is also why I think West has had some problems in polling. He and numerous others were sacrificial lambs for the Macks and the FL power pols.

LeMieux was my next choice, but then he dropped out. Again, IMHO, pushed out.

Finally, in May of this year Dave Weldon entered the primary because there were no conservatives left. Weldon was once my US Rep., and he is a fine man of integrity, a solid conservative, and a physician (Bye ObamaCare). I voted for him, but I think he entered the race too late to win.

SO, the question is, will Mack win? Will West win and will Hasner win after being sacrificed for Mack?

This has been infuriating IMHO.

INC on October 12, 2012 at 3:00 PM

I’ve been seeing a lot of ads for both Moron-ez and Joe Kyrillos on the Philly-area TV stations. Kyrillos would get my vote if I still lived in that sh1thole New Jersey. Menendez gives me the creeps, he has that pedophlie look about him.

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:53 PM

You gotta understand the electoral map of New Jersey. The state is split three-ways like 40-25-35 between conservative suburbanites who wouldn’t be out of place in Kentucky or Oklahoma, unionized leftist hordes led by NJEA, and demihuman dreck that inhabits Newark, Camden, Paterson and other urban cesspools. The first two groups actively vote, so and the election usually hangs on how much of the third will show up to the polls. With Ogabe running for reelection, there isn’t a chance any of the welfare queens would fail to vote at least twice, whereas Republicans have their chances in off-years. That’s how we got Christie.

Archivarix on October 12, 2012 at 3:03 PM

If Obama’s internals deteriorate further over the next week, he’ll probably Wag the Dog–military strike somewhere in the Middle East. It gets him a primetime address where he can appear Very Presidential and Very Tough and get some fawning spin from his lackeys at the networks. Yes, it’s desperate and can backfire. But he doesn’t care about the effects on the targets if the entire Propaganda Machine will give it their all and spin it as a kinetic act of monumental courage. They will do anything to protect their Dear Leader and keep him in power. Several million imbeciles could switch their votes. 50% chance of this.

Regardless, it’s gonna be Bain-Bain-Bain, Bain is bustin’ out all over for the next few weeks, plus a “heightened” focus on the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter-Day Saints and all their manifold idiosyncrasies (to keep the fundamentalists from pulling the lever for Mitt).

spiritof61 on October 12, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Only seven stupid states in the nation

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:22 PM

So that leaves what, 50 smart states? ;-)

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:39 PM
ROTFLMAO………. Thread winnar……. ;p

SWalker on October 12, 2012 at 2:39 PM

…I did that!…but I spewed coffee first!

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 3:06 PM

This is Mack’s bio from Wiki:

Through his father, Mack is the great-grandson of Connie Mack, the manager and owner of baseball’s Philadelphia Athletics and member of the Baseball Hall of Fame; the great-grandson of Morris Sheppard, U.S. Senator and Representative from Texas; the great-great-grandson of John Levi Sheppard, a U.S. Representative from Texas; and the step-great-grandson of Tom Connally, the Texas Junior Senator to Sheppard for 12 years.

I quoted it so you’ll see just how tied in the Macks are to political families, not just in FL, but in TX–I mean this is going back over 100 years.

I don’t like Nelson at all–I won’t vote for him. The only good thing about him winning would be to stop another political dynasty. If Mack wins, then I predict he’ll be the kind of Senator who will frequently give us heartburn.

INC on October 12, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Why are we outside FL seeing the polls looking not so good for Connie Mack?

I thought his Penny Mack plan was so smart.

I don’t know much about Florida.

Fleuries on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

I live in SW Florida. I don’t watch much TV but, when I do, I don’t see any Mack ads. Nothing. All of the advertising is for his opponent. And it seems constant. Sad.

joejm65 on October 12, 2012 at 3:08 PM

That’s how we got Christie.

Archivarix on October 12, 2012 at 3:03 PM

And probably Christine Todd Whitman, who I sort of liked.

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Only seven stupid states in the nation

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 2:22 PM

So that leaves what, 50 smart states? ;-)

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 2:39 PM

ROTFLMAO………. Thread winnar……. ;p

SWalker on October 12, 2012 at 2:39 PM

…I did that!…but I spewed coffee first!

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Thanks, guys, but that one was just too easy. Schad set up the shot and I made the goal.

UltimateBob on October 12, 2012 at 3:13 PM

preference cascade.

bannor on October 12, 2012 at 3:15 PM

If Col. West loses—and it would be a huge loss for the country—then I think you can lay the blame at the feet of Connie Mack and his political ambitions, and those FL Republican power players who decided everyone needed to be shuffled around so they could crown Mack.

INC on October 12, 2012 at 3:16 PM

Ed Morrissey,
I have a very minor edit for you. I think that:

Obama won independents in 2008 by seven, 52/45, in a D+3 turnout at 37/37/29.

… should probably be:

Obama won independents in 2008 by seven, 52/45, in a D+3 turnout at 37/34/29.

That edit of the Republican turnout to 34 instead of 37 keeps the total (37+34+29) at 100% and shows the D+3 margin.
I assume the 37 for Republican turnout was just a typo.

ITguy on October 12, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Well, Romney 51% to Obamuh 47% in FL will work for me on Nov 6.

stukinIL4now on October 12, 2012 at 3:38 PM

…I did that!…but I spewed coffee first!

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Yea… I almost spewed my beer… But hey… it was beer… ;)

SWalker on October 12, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Not sure that bringing up Bain at this point is going to be good for Obama, it’ll just remind people again that Romney was in charge of running one of the most successful and respected companies in the world.

tkyang99 on October 12, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Also the irony with all the leftist Bain bashing is, a typical college graduate would give their left arm to get a job at Bain. You know, those college grads that Obama is supposed to care so much about.

tkyang99 on October 12, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Menendez? As in Menendez (Douche-NJ)? You wish! The most populated state counties, Essex and (aptly named) Union are pasted all over with his ads. These counties are also chock full of “underpriviliged” human trash, most of them Muslims, Latino, or Black. It doesn’t help that Chris Christie is in OH and PA, instead of working his usual wonders here at home, and that his opponent Joe Kyrillos is a limp-wristed sissy incapable of decent fundraising. So, much as I would love otherwise, New Jersey is a lost cause in 2012.

Archivarix on October 12, 2012 at 2:46 PM

It’s unlikely, but you missed my point. The point is that once it seems like a foregone conclusion that Obama is going to lose, democratic enthusiasm will drop, the people you described will be less likely to come out and vote, and Kyrillos will close the gap. Will he win? No. But, candidates like Connie Mack, Linda McMahon and George Allen very will might. When you combine those numbers with the sure gains in states like NE and the 3 NW states, and assuming Heller wins, and either Brown or the ME Republican win, you are looking at 50 votes. Then you get to 53 with 3 of Mack, Mendel, Allan, McMahon, Thompson, or Kyrillos winning.

So, 53 is very possible, and if Republicans can flip Manchin, you are looking at 54 seats.

One other thing to remember, 2014 is the re-election year for 2008. If Romney turns into a good president, there are a good 6-8 seats that Republicans should be competitive in. So, 59-60 seats is not out of the realm of possibility by 2015.

milcus on October 12, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Any truth to the rumors I’m hearing that Zero has pulled out of Michigan? Maybe he thinks it’s safe and needs to spend his money on some of these other previously “safe” states. Maybe it’s not so safe…

Rational Thought on October 12, 2012 at 4:10 PM

This happens all the time and Ryan let Biden get away with it last night as well.

Absolutely right.

What made Mitt a chainsaw, was he came back and refuted every single lie in Obozo’s retort, every single time he uttered it..

Mitt is even better than we think he is.

Thank you, God.

Typicalwhitewoman on October 12, 2012 at 4:40 PM

I don’t usually listen to Hannity, but he’s doing a great impression of Biden by imitating Shemp from 3 Stooges.
Hilarious.

Typicalwhitewoman on October 12, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Guatemalan pool-boy lover nowhere in sight.

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 2:08 PM

TWP, can you tell me what this meme is all about?

Thanks!

Mary in LA on October 12, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Just give up on the senate. It’s a lost cause.

mrscullen on October 12, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Then it doesn’t matter who wins the Presidency. We’ll still have Dingy Harry as Senate Majority leader and nothing will get done, especially the repeal of ObamaCare and Dodd-Frank.

pdigaudio on October 12, 2012 at 7:31 PM