Rasmussen: Romney goes above 50% in Florida

posted at 2:01 pm on October 12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

In more swing-state news, a new Rasmussen poll in Florida maintains the Mitt Romney momentum narrative — albeit narrowly.  For the first time, Romney has broken through the majority barrier to take a small four-point lead over Barack Obama, 51/47:

Mitt Romney has crossed the 50% mark for the first time to widen his lead to four points in Florida.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Romney with 51% support to President Obama’s 47%. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This is the widest gap between the candidates in surveys this year, but Florida remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. Prior to these findings, the candidates have been within two points of each other in Florida in every survey since April. Last week, it was Romney 49%, Obama 47%.

Obama carried Florida over John McCain in 2008 by a 51% to 49% margin.

Suffolk bailed out of Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina earlier this week, but this doesn’t exactly look dominating — at least not yet.  This comes within the margin of error, if to the outer edges of it, and a lot can happen in three-plus weeks.  It’s the first time either candidate has shown any Sunshine State momentum in this poll series, but even that’s not fully substantiated in this survey.

The internals, though, look pretty devastating.  The partisan split is an R+1, almost the same as the 36/36/29 2010 midterms, but with fewer independents at 39/38/23.  The shortchanging of independents hurts Romney more than Obama, though, as Romney has a sixteen-point lead among unaffiliated voters, 54/38.  Obama won independents in 2008 by seven, 52/45, in a D+3 turnout at 37/37/29.

Similarly, Rasmussen slightly oversamples women (56%) compared to 2008 (53%).  That also doesn’t help Romney, as Obama wins women by eight points, 53/45.  However, Romney wins men by eighteen points, 58/40, for an overall gender advantage of +10.  In 2008, Obama had a gender advantage over John McCain of +9 (+4 among men and +5 among women).  That’s a nineteen-point switch in the gap.

Furthermore, Romney now leads on the two big issue questions asked by Rasmussen in this poll.  On the economy, a majority of voters trust him more over Obama, 51/45.  A majority also trusts him more on national security, but that’s within the MoE at 50/47.  Obama’s job approval is slightly under water at 48/51, but 45% strongly disapprove.

The internals paint a much more formidable picture of Romney’s strength in Florida than the topline does.  We’ll see if his momentum grows in the next poll series, but a 16-point lead among independents with three weeks to go against an incumbent looks very good for the challenger.

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Comment pages: 1 2

Been to many TEA party rallies, have you? Or are you merely engaging in rectal speak?

As usual…

JohnGalt23 on May 24, 2013 at 1:46 PM

As I just posted HotairLib has their whole head up their six o clock.

hamradio on May 24, 2013 at 2:43 PM

Who wrote the speech? Or are you just praising the messenger?

mixplix on May 24, 2013 at 2:57 PM

MSNBC consensus: Obama’s speech was historic, amazing, “one of the best of his presidency”

Connect the dots: journolist meeting by invitation only at the White House on, what Tuesday?, “big”speech by Obama on Thursday, lame stream media fawning over speech on Friday. Who would have seen that coming, huh?

parke on May 24, 2013 at 2:58 PM

They need the “war on terror” in order to further erode our Constitutional freedoms and to deflect criticism from the administration’s and Federal government’s ongoing corruption.

They are just trying to massage it so that they don’t offend the Muslims, international Libtards and their own sensibilities anymore than necessary.

A few Muslim terrorists here and there are quite expendable to this Administration despite their sympathies for them. These drone attacks also do much deflect any potential criticism that the Administration is weak in dealing with such matters.

Dr. ZhivBlago on May 24, 2013 at 2:59 PM

MSNBC is nothing but a left wing propaganda machine serving their master, Obama.

rplat on May 24, 2013 at 3:07 PM

Nobel Peace Prize that he totally earned a mere nine months into his presidency? Yeah, that one.

I believe that he was officially nominated 10 days after he was sworn in. Wow! The WON really worked long hours that week and a half to earn that POS medal. During those ten days he ordered NO DRONE STRIKES to keep his peaceful record clean.

fred5678 on May 24, 2013 at 3:22 PM

Obama: Don’t worry about that Ben Ghazi guy. I killed Bin Laden, and Bush didn’t!

And Obummer still wants to close Gitmo? Good luck with that–not even Upchuck Schumer was willing to hold trials in New York!

Steve Z on May 24, 2013 at 3:24 PM

They need the “war on terror” in order to further erode our Constitutional freedoms and to deflect criticism from the administration’s and Federal government’s ongoing corruption.

They just changed the definition of terrorist. They used to be jihadis from the Middle East–now they’re Minutemen in Arizona and Tea Partiers in Ohio.

Steve Z on May 24, 2013 at 3:29 PM

…bromides about what we’re told are President Foreign Policy’s miraculous yet still oddly unmaterialized abilities to move us drastically closer to world peace.

Erika, sometimes your writing shows signs of rivaling even the Master of Snark himself, Allahpundit. Good work!

KS Rex on May 24, 2013 at 3:45 PM

I love how crazy Al invoked the Nobel Peace Prize in praise of a speech that spoke about dropping bombs on people’s head. Maybe it was the “fewer” bombs than before that raised this to historic levels.

Do they even know or care that they are morons.

marnes on May 24, 2013 at 3:46 PM

His speech made less sense than Bluto’s Animal House Speech and was far less entertaining. Nothing less than base rallying time. Never thought I would say this, but Code Pink was the best part.

DDay on May 24, 2013 at 4:01 PM

Sperling posted this at the Examiner on May 23 about this “historic speech of Obysmal’s:

During his foreign policy speech Thursday afternoon, President Obama warned that domestic terrorism would increase in the modern age of the Internet.

“[T]his threat is not new,” Obama said. “But technology and the Internet increase its frequency and lethality.”

Obama warned Americans that materials on the Internet could influence people to commit terrorist acts.

“Today, a person can consume hateful propaganda, commit themselves to a violent agenda and learn how to kill without leaving their home,” he said.

To combat domestic terrorism, Obama reminded Americans that it was important to reach out to Muslim communities.

“The best way to prevent violent extremism is to work with the Muslim American community — which has consistently rejected terrorism — to identify signs of radicalization and partner with law enforcement when an individual is drifting towards violence,” he said. “And these partnerships can only work when we recognize that Muslims are a fundamental part of the American family.”

You see, we are just not working hard enough to “work with the Muslim American community” who are a “fundamental part of the American family.” Watch out, too, because Obysmal is again trying to limit the impact of the Internet.

onlineanalyst on May 24, 2013 at 4:22 PM

That Chris Hayes is a bit of a twink, isn’t he?

onlineanalyst on May 24, 2013 at 4:25 PM

Obama apparently gave two speeches yesterday and I watched the other one.

myiq2xu on May 24, 2013 at 5:03 PM

Comment pages: 1 2