Oh my: Romney up 7 in new VA poll

posted at 11:21 am on October 12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

A new poll from McLaughlin & Associates, highlighted by Breitbart’s Tony Lee, provides even more supporting evidence for Suffolk University’s conclusion that there’s not much chance of Barack Obama winning the state.  Mitt Romney has taken a seven-point lead and grabbed a majority, 51/44, in the survey taken on Monday and Tuesday of 600 likely voters in the state.  More importantly, Romney has a double-digit lead among independents (via Drudge Report):

According to a McLaughlin & Associates poll that had an R+.02 sample, Romney leads Obama in Virginia 51%-44%.

Among independents, Romney beats Obama by 11 points, 50%-39%.

If these numbers hold for Romney, Romney could be free to expand the electoral map and more aggressively make plays for states like Michigan and Pennsylvania that were considered “reaches” just two weeks ago.

The sample in this case was almost exactly split between Republicans and Democrats, with independents overshadowing both.  The D/R/I was 30.3/30.5/38.2.  That, however, is a pretty far cry from 2008′s 39/33/27, or even 2009′s 33/37/30, at least in terms of the independent vote.  Oversampling independents will drive Romney’s top-line numbers up higher, and while Republican enthusiasm is up nationwide, the number of federal government employees in Virginia might dampen that in the Commonwealth.

The split between Republicans and Democrats seem reasonable as an electoral model, however.  It is almost evenly split between 2008 and 2009 turnout, and so gives us a pretty decent predictive model while taking the oversample of independents into consideration.  But even on that score, there isn’t much solace for Team Obama in these numbers.  Obama won independents in 2008 by a single point, 49/48, on his way to a six-point win in Virginia.  If Romney’s leading independents by eleven — and 229 voters is a pretty decent subsample for state polling — then Obama has almost no chance of prevailing without a massive increase in Democratic enthusiasm, one that would have to far surpass anything seen in 2008.


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Obama lied
People died
Biden laughed

SparkPlug on October 12, 2012 at 11:56 AM

OK, not everyone should endorse Mitt.

Linsey Lohan just endorsed him. Just Oy.

But then again Barack got Hugo Chavez.

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM

SparkPlug on October 12, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Look at you. ; )

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM

hmmm

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 11:37 AM

“That’s Irish” — Ryan

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Barky is counting on building major foreign-policy-balls cred when he bombs Iran in late October. I wish I wasn’t only half kidding…

bofh on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM

And yes, he’s still going to win.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 11:35 PM

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 11:58 AM

I used to live in VA, and now I live in PA. PA is definitely in play, but it’s been like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown one too many times for me. I’m volunteering to work the phones for Romney, and I’m hopeful – I just don’t want to be hugely disappointed if the dead people and cartoon characters voting in Philadelphia/Pittsburgh wind up overwhelming the rest of the state.

DRayRaven on October 12, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Don’t be discouraged — if we force Obama to spend significant money in Pennsylvania, that alone is a huge victory.

My position has been: move RR and SuperPacs into PA, NM, and MN markets, move the needle, and force Obama to react.

DRAIN OBAMA DRY.

matthew8787 on October 12, 2012 at 11:58 AM

This really is playing out like 1980.

MNHawk on October 12, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Where is G&P to tell us that Michelle’s likability is greater than Ann Romney’s, to make Obama the guaranteed sure-fire winner of the election?

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 11:59 AM

That debate sure did Mitt a lot of good, lol.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Time to start polling New York?

Ronnie on October 12, 2012 at 12:00 PM

More importantly, Romney has a double-digit lead among independents (via Drudge Report):

Ah, one of the groups which will probably not be favorably impressed by Sheriff Joe in last night’s event.

a capella on October 12, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Ah…ah…ah

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Uh, uh, funny!

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Barky is counting on building major foreign-policy-balls cred when he bombs Iran in late October. I wish I wasn’t only half kidding…

bofh on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM

But Joe-ker last night said that they can work with Iran and that Iran isn’t that big a deal. It might cause more problems and have the media asking just what the Executive Office actually knows about anything given the stuff Joe-ker claimed about Libya. Don’t know that that would work in their favor because of that.

Betenoire on October 12, 2012 at 12:00 PM

“And yes, he’s still going to win.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 11:35 PM

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 11:58 AM”

Yes, he is.

As long as Ohio is in Obama’s column, he can’t lose.

If you start to see Romney ahead in OH, then Obama should be worried.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM

It’s a glorious day. Mittmentum continues unabaited (without bait) and I got a Page 2 Bishop already without even try casting.

SparkPlug on October 12, 2012 at 12:02 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Anyone ever tell you that you’re a joke with no punchline?

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Rasmussen poll of Michigan…

Obama 52
Romney 45

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:04 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:01 PM

So if Obama wins OH, but still loses WI, MI and PA he still wins? Good to know!

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Thanks for knowing I meant can’t instead of can. I know there is someone out there willing to hire me as a proofreader.///////

Cindy Munford on October 12, 2012 at 12:04 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Wrong thread, schmuck. The fake conservative thread is over in the trash.

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Romney also up in VA according to new Rasmussen numbers today, 49 to 47. And he has a 4 point lead in FL 51 to 47. Romney starting to lock up FL now and on way to doing the same in VA. Ohio is the one I am worried about…

Jack_Burton on October 12, 2012 at 12:05 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Definition of bitter clinger right here folks. Lol! Pathetic!

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:05 PM

As long as Ohio is in Obama’s column, he can’t lose.

If you start to see Romney ahead in OH, then Obama should be worried.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:01 PM

So Romney can win Michigan, New Hampshire, ME2, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin and North Carolina, as long as Obama takes Ohio?

Deal.

Washington Nearsider on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM

midgeorgian on October 12, 2012 at 11:47 AM

…dumb fluke #58

FlaMurph on October 12, 2012 at 11:49 AM

…dumb fluke #59

Jabberwock on October 12, 2012 at 11:52 AM

…dumb fluke #60

trigon on October 12, 2012 at 11:52 AM

…dumb fluke #61
…welcome to the dumb fluke club!
…the drawing for a chance to win genital warts will be held November 7th!…at least your chances are dissipating due to all the dumb flukes joining you in contributing to gummeandpoleme‘s orgasims.

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Rasmussen has recently adjusted its polling tactics. I would suggest that Michigan is probably +1 for Obama right now, not the 7 points that Rassy shows.

Jason Taylor Sacked You on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Obama’s getting 13% of the R vote in MI. Must be fake conservatives like Gumby.

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM

“So if Obama wins OH, but still loses WI, MI and PA he still wins? Good to know!

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 12:04 PM”

What poll has Romney winning MI, PA or WI?

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I think we’re starting to witness, as Ace states, the Preference Cascade.

WisRich on October 12, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Hard to say, because the other thing we are seeing as the election approaches is a pollster migration from advocacy polling, to more accurate polling to demonstrate their accuracy and a clean record.

In other words, the pollsters are getting serious about their jobs.

slickwillie2001 on October 12, 2012 at 12:07 PM

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Don’t you dare include me in on that list. ; ) Talking at it and to it are two very different things. Lol! ; )

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Thanks for knowing I meant can’t instead of can. I know there is someone out there willing to hire me as a proofreader.///////

Cindy Munford on October 12, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Eiv bin reeding yoo a lung tyme, soe Ei no watcha ment. ~S~

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:07 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I’m talking about in Nov, fool.

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I live in the nearby-very-liberal enclave of Alexandria, and Romney signs out-number Obama signs about 3 to 1.

bigmacdaddy on October 12, 2012 at 11:43 AM

I live in CA and it’s been about 1 to 2 for Romney. Obama will CA, but only by 4%.

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 11:45 AM

o

I am in Cali too, same ratio I got here, by a superficial calculation, but the truth is there are few yard signs to be seen, in general, for either candidate. So, I don’t think it says much about people’s electoral preferences this year. methinks the whole apprehension about putting yard signs has to do more with the acts of vanadalism that have been reported amply in the media recently, complete with nasty stuff such as urinarion on the signs, fence, yard, etc….who wants that, so I think people ‘decided to stay on the safe side and not display any signs at all. Same with bumper stickers, very few this year, for either of the two men.

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Cindy Munford on October 12, 2012 at 12:04 PM

I knew you meant can’t.

You would never tell us to be conplacent. We have to vote like our votes matter because they do.

SparkPlug on October 12, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Time to start polling New York?

Ronnie on October 12, 2012 at 12:00 PM

I’m here in NY and you don’t see that many Obama signs at all. You even see a few RR bumper stickers. Nothing like 2008. Romney’s going to help down ballot races. Maybe we will see a congressional pickups(Altshuler) and Rep. will advance in the state senate.

monalisa on October 12, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Lol Jay Carney = foot in mouth: “Carney: “The vice president was speaking about himself, the president and the white house. Not the administration.”

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

“So Romney can win Michigan, New Hampshire, ME2, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin and North Carolina, as long as Obama takes Ohio?

Deal.

Washington Nearsider on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM”

Romney is not winning PA or MI or WI.

He has a shot at CO, FL, VA, NC, NH and ME2.

That’s not enough without Ohio.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

I’m really enjoying watching the Trolls with their little buckets of b.s., trying deperately to bail out Obama’s sinking Ship of State.

kingsjester on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

I am honestly concerned for the first time in my life about the transition. I have always just assumed there would be an orderly peaceful transition in January following an election. Looking at how nasty the Obummer Admin has become and at how nasty the Obummer campaign has always been, I am genuinely concerned.

Jason Taylor Sacked You on October 12, 2012 at 11:48 AM

.
You know there are going to be a few Marc Rich incidents, definitiely…but the Narcissist in Chief won’t sully his legacy too badly (ie; missing silverware)

FlaMurph on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

But Joe-ker last night said that they can work with Iran and that Iran isn’t that big a deal. It might cause more problems and have the media asking just what the Executive Office actually knows about anything given the stuff Joe-ker claimed about Libya. Don’t know that that would work in their favor because of that.

Betenoire on October 12, 2012 at 12:00 PM

I couldn’t watch Crazy Joe for long, but I did hear him attempt to downplay Iran’s threat.

What an idiot.

Will Jews still vote for this Dynamic Duo?

davidk on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Wait until Biden’s obnoxious performance in last night’s debate kicks in (plus all the lies about Benghazi etc.) Obama’s already bad poll numbers are going down again next week. No matter what he does on Tuesday won’t be able to save him.

eyedoc on October 12, 2012 at 12:10 PM

An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

At least you’re not trying to whitewash it like Gumball.

davidk on October 12, 2012 at 12:11 PM

“An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM”

As long as OH is Obama’s, the election is his. But if that would start to crumble, then it’s panic time.

But there is NO evidence that OH is trending to Romney like FL, for example.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:11 PM

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Start crying.

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 12:11 PM

I’ve predicted all along that Obama will win Ohio, Virginia and Florida, while Romney takes NC.

If I’m wrong on a state, it will be FL. OH is a 100% lock/firewall for Obama and VA is 90% locked up, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Noted and saved for future reference.

(hee hee hee)

GrannyDee on October 9, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Not that I want to rub salt in the wounds…

(hee hee hee)

GrannyDee on October 12, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Can’t be trusted!

I mean, really, if they are down to polling ME, then they are in very sad straights.

ajacksonian on October 12, 2012 at 11:36 AM

.
They are polling you because 91% of the populace if refusing to partcipate.

Here in Ohio, we are averaging 8 – 10 calls/day from unique pollsters.

A week ago, it was 4 – 6 calls/day and THAT drove me to reconfigure the land line to visual display only.

If we don’t know the number, it does not get answered.

PolAgnostic on October 12, 2012 at 12:12 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:11 PM

One sad liberal trying to console another.

wargamer6 on October 12, 2012 at 12:12 PM

We can afford to be complacent, two more hideous debates to go.

Cindy Munford on October 12, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Hey! Somebody stole a “‘t” from your post. I blame gumbyandpokey. :0

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:12 PM

An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Good! I’ll be glad to treat you to lunch at The Busy Bee, if you will just help me get those fine folks at Morehouse straight. ; )

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Those professors in Colorado with their prediction model have MN in the Romney category, although one of them admitted that if he had to pick a state that they think they got wrong (their model is right for about 45 states on average) he would pick Minnesota.

strictnein on October 12, 2012 at 11:51 AM

If Ryan/Romney show up here – then we’ll know there is a chance.

The state GOP has moved into overdrive the last couuple of weeks so internals must be encouraging.

gophergirl on October 12, 2012 at 12:13 PM

I’m really enjoying watching the Trolls with their little buckets of b.s., trying deperately to bail out Obama’s sinking Ship of State.

kingsjester on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Quite comedic, isn’t it?

Realistically–if Obama was so great and a shoo-in, he wouldn’t have had to soothe frazzled Democrat nerves the other day, to ‘reassure’ them.

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:13 PM

“An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

At least you’re not trying to whitewash it like Gumball.

davidk on October 12, 2012 at 12:11 PM”

The election has always been about Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Romney needs all three to have a chance.

He’s got a shot at two of those, but Ohio still looks solid for Obama, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Barry is in free fall and Biden packed his parachute with tooth polish so he will look good at the funeral.

Good thinking Joe.

SparkPlug on October 12, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM

…NOT YOU TOO!…#62!

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:03 PM

…tears to my eyes…#63

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:05 PM

….now I’m crying!…I’m telling mom…no more cobblerfor #64

Washington Nearsider on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM

…dumb fluke #65

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 12:14 PM

If we don’t know the number, it does not get answered.

PolAgnostic on October 12, 2012 at 12:12 PM

I’m doing the same in VA. It’s one of the reasons why I don’t necessarily trust the polls. How many of us in swing states just won’t answer the phones and feed the polling beast?

BTW, I predict a significant (not huge) win for Romney here in VA. It just doesn’t feel like an election where Obama supporters are enthusiastic about getting out there and voting for the rat-eared coward.

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Hey gumby. Graveyard. Whistle. Past. Much?

Arssanguinus on October 12, 2012 at 12:17 PM

An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Then come over to our side? There’s always room for one more.

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:17 PM

He’s got a shot at two of those, but Ohio still looks solid for Obama, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:13 PM

What part of “within the margin of error” has escaped your tiny little brain?

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:17 PM

I wish the election was today. Now I know how Kunta Kinte felt.

Except, you know, intelligent.

@g.a.p. Better check your math again. If Obama only wins Ohio and the Blue 3, that’s not enough. He needs to win at least 1 battleground state after Ohio.

HitNRun on October 12, 2012 at 12:17 PM

I don’t think too many Independents would have been convinced by Biden’s performance last night that Obama/Biden are capable of working with the opposition.

Basilsbest on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Obama probably still wins Ohio, MI, NV, IA, PA and even CO. But VA, NH and FL are always nice. I don’t like that its close. I wanted devastating mandate.

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 12:14 PM

I call B.S.! Take me off the dang list. Talking about it or at it is not the same thing. When I ask Ed to swing the hammer at it, that didn’t count why should this?

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

What part of “within the margin of error” has escaped your tiny little brain?

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:17 PM

What “escaped” is his brain.

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Obama probably still wins Ohio, MI, NV, IA, PA and even CO. But VA, NH and FL are always nice. I don’t like that its close. I wanted devastating mandate.

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

And people in Hell want ice water.

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:20 PM

I wanted devastating mandate.

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Funniest comment of the day goes to………… Thanks for playing, now as to lunch at The busy Bee, smothered and covered? Lol!

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:12 PM

I wish I could blame someone else. State Dept., intelligence gathering or Republican cuts will have to be the explanation.

Cindy Munford on October 12, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM

…NOT YOU TOO!…#62!

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:03 PM

…tears to my eyes…#63

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:05 PM

….now I’m crying!…I’m telling mom…no more cobblerfor #64

Washington Nearsider on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM

…dumb fluke #65

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Screw it, I’ll fix it myself.

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Obama probably still wins Ohio, MI, NV, IA, PA and even CO. But VA, NH and FL are always nice. I don’t like that its close. I wanted devastating mandate.

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Is there alternate Universe i don’t know off? Or is this Matrix? You can’t be talking about the current election cycle. He is not in the lead, Obama.

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 12:24 PM

And we can build this dream together
Standing strong forever
Nothing’s gonna stop us now!
And if this world runs out of lovers
We’ll still have each other!
Nothing’s gonna stop us!
Nothing’s gonna stop us now!

nitzsche on October 12, 2012 at 12:25 PM

Obama probably still wins Ohio, MI, NV, IA, PA and even CO. But VA, NH and FL are always nice. I don’t like that its close. I wanted devastating mandate.

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Of course.

22044 on October 12, 2012 at 12:25 PM

I wanted devastating mandate.

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

A mandate for four more years of failed policies and a continued erosion of the middle class.

A mandate for an administration that stifles job creation by openly opposing domestic energy production.

A mandate for an administration that believed their government top down spending would create so called shovel ready jobs.. that ended up admitting there was no such thing.

A mandate for more executive cover ups like Bengazi and Fast and Furious.

A mandate for a return to treating terror attacks like they are a criminal police matter.

Yeah, keep wishing for that. It sure would be devastating, but I’m guessing you mean devastating in regards to being able to gloat (as gumbey claims he wants to do on election night) and could care less about the state of our union.

ShadowsPawn on October 12, 2012 at 12:26 PM

“..this IS a big f***ing deal..”

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Obama probably still wins Ohio, MI, NV, IA, PA and even CO. But VA, NH and FL are always nice. I don’t like that its close. I wanted devastating mandate.

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

You had one of those in 2008 along with complete control over two branches of government. Had the rat-eared coward been a better steward. Had he been more trustworthy. Had he been more bipartisan. Had he created jobs and trimmed the size of government……. Had he done even some of the stuff above, this election wouldn’t even be close. Instead it is a referendum election and your guy is going to go down in flames because of his poor performance.

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:27 PM

ARG New Hampshire

Romney 50
Obama 46

ka-BOOM!

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Here’s a hilarious NH “poll number” for ya:

WMUR/UNH “Poll”, 9/27-9/30: O’bamna over Romney by 15

WMUR/UNH “Poll”, 9/30-10/6: O’bamna over Romney by 6

Amazing.

As for this new ARG result, I’ll wait for a few others from NH, as ARG has in the past had a spotty record.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Obama probably still wins Ohio, MI, NV, IA, PA and even CO. But VA, NH and FL are always nice. I don’t like that its close. I wanted devastating mandate.

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

A devastating mandate for what?

4 dollar gas? Increased food prices? Decreased net worths of middle class families? Fewer jobs, that pay less or are part-time? Iran getting a nuke? A healthcare program that will increase the cost of premiums, have costs that go through the roof? Tax increases for the rich which will result in a double-dip recession? 15 new taxes on the middle class through Obamacare?

I mean honestly, which part of what I just said do you want a devastating mandate on?

milcus on October 12, 2012 at 12:29 PM

Yeah. The country is beginning to realize there won’t be any more Bamster come January.

If this Romney trend holds, look for rallies in nearly everything.

trigon on October 12, 2012 at 11:52 AM

The Leftists are too Stupid to even consider the possibility that the uptick in consumer confidence might be because more and more folks see Romney winning.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 12:31 PM

And Biden delivered the death knell last night. Congrats Joe, stand up and take a bow.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 12, 2012 at 11:26 AM

“….awwwwww..God love ya, Joe! everyone stand up for Joe!”

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 12:32 PM

I am honestly concerned for the first time in my life about the transition. I have always just assumed there would be an orderly peaceful transition in January following an election. Looking at how nasty the Obummer Admin has become and at how nasty the Obummer campaign has always been, I am genuinely concerned.

Jason Taylor Sacked You on October 12, 2012 at 11:48 AM

.
You know there are going to be a few Marc Rich incidents, definitiely…but the Narcissist in Chief won’t sully his legacy too badly (ie; missing silverware)

FlaMurph on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

I am less concerned about that transition than I am about the tweets I’m seeing on Twitchy about the promised rioting. I know that most of them are just bloviating, but I do think we’ll have some difficult pockets of -er- strong opinions.

Too, I’m concerned about what they are going to pull in the 2 months’ lame duck session. Sleeper libs in all of the civil service jobs, midnight irrevocable legislation, etc., etc.

Putting on my Frank Herbert “Dune” hat here, what we really need is a Judge of the Change. If we win the election, I feel like it’ll be like House Atredies taking over Arrakis. Wait until we get some Harkonnen agents captured and we can start breathing easier. :)

rah1420 on October 12, 2012 at 12:32 PM

I hope that I could get added to the list that you are keeping (if I’m not already on it). It seems to be full of the most respected Hot Air commenters.

blink on October 12, 2012 at 12:28 PM

blink, you can have my spot. #64, I was wrongly added to the list. Kool will explain here in a minute.

blink#64

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Bounce? This is more like a Petraeus surge.

Zaggs on October 12, 2012 at 12:33 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 12:27 PM

They don’t show Texas as lock for Romney, I mean come on. I would also put FL, NC, and VA as likely Romney, and FL you can probably change to a lock in week or so.

THIS MAP IS GOING RED!

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Let’s face it, you libs: your precious Obama is in question. There are more question about him than there verses in the Bible.

Sure, you lib poll fetishists can spout all the numbers you want to feel comfortable. But at the end of the day, your Chicago Jesus is far from perfect.

You liblets come here infesting this place as if you are perfect and all-knowing like the Oracle of Greece. Well, then–how about you run for president?

I’m willing to bet that even G&P would be a better president than Obama.

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM

…NOT YOU TOO!…#62!

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:03 PM

…tears to my eyes…#63

blink on October 12, 2012 at 12:28 PM

….there ya go blink. ; ) #64

Washington Nearsider on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM

…dumb fluke #65

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:34 PM

He’s got a shot at two of those, but Ohio still looks solid for Obama, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:13 PM

This has been your problem from the beginning. You see a poll and you think, that’s it, that’s how its going to be. That simply isn’t always how it turns out. People change their minds, events change people’s minds, polling samples change. What you lack is the wisdom to see beyond the poll or event that happens “right this minute”.

You are just an overblown reactionary, nothing more, nothing less. Because of this, no one pays attention to your so called analysis.

Oh.. one more thing.

Atomic Bomb

ShadowsPawn on October 12, 2012 at 12:35 PM

If we don’t know the number, it does not get answered.

PolAgnostic on October 12, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Every single person I know does this. the simple argument is ‘if it’s important enough, they will leave a message’.
besides most people are at work and don’t get home until 5 or 6 pm in the afternoon or so, so even if, say, they pick up the phone, you bet they hang up if they run into a pollster, who the heck wants to respond to some annoying pollster and their uber lenghty questionnaires that the that would eat so much of their chillaxation time.

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Liam on October 12, 2012 at 12:03 PM

…tears to my eyes…#63

blink on October 12, 2012 at 12:28 PM

….there ya go blink. ; ) #64

Washington Nearsider on October 12, 2012 at 12:06 PM

…dumb fluke #65

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 12:14 PM

This one amost qualifiez for the hall of fame of dumb flukes :)..how did shade, blink and liam got on the list? :)

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:38 PM

“An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

As long as OH is Obama’s, the election is his. But if that would start to crumble, then it’s panic time.

But there is NO evidence that OH is trending to Romney like FL, for example.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:11 PM

..well, looks like BendMeOverAndPokeMe is the Lucky Pierre of the Day! He, LiverSpotsForfree and BendMe’s Guatemalan pool boy live-in lover get to console themselves this afternoon as their pathetic little world crumbles.

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 12:39 PM

On Ohio…

nitzsche on October 12, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Obama probably still wins Ohio

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

Latest Ohio “Polling”:

10/10 Rasmussen O’bamna by 1
10/7-10/9 NBC/Marist O’bamna by 6
10/6-10/10 Gravis Marketing Romney by 1
10/5-10/8 SurveyUSA O’bamna by 1
10/5-10/8 CNN/ORC O’bamna by 4
10/5-10/8 ARG Romney by 1
10/04 WeAskAmerica Romney by 1

RCP Ohio “Poll” Average = O’bamna by 1.3 = TIE

In other words, Ohio isn’t anywhere near as much of a lock for O’bamna as his addled believers think.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Don’t put Schad and BMore on that list.

Peach Cobbler

SparkPlug on October 12, 2012 at 12:46 PM

http://www.yahoo.com/?r229=1350060526

Devastating visual from the LEFTYAHOO News.

PappyD61 on October 12, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Don’t put Schad and BMore on that list.

Peach Cobbler

SparkPlug on October 12, 2012 at 12:46 PM

I ain’t on that dang list. Kool just made an error. I corrected for the record. Besides blink really wanted it.

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 12:27 PM

They don’t show Texas as lock for Romney, I mean come on. I would also put FL, NC, and VA as likely Romney, and FL you can probably change to a lock in week or so.

THIS MAP IS GOING RED!

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 12:34 PM

According to RCP, no “polling” has taken place in TX in almost 2 weeks. Probably because that last result had Romney +19.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 12:51 PM

If you start to see Romney ahead in OH, then Obama should be worried.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 12:01 PM

The RCP average has Obama up by 1.3 percentage points. However, the average MofE works out to between 3 and 4 points, which means it’s a statistical draw.

Uncle Joe’s puppet show last night will likely push the needle into Romney’s side of the dial.

And yes…in light of the fact that he presently has a solid lock on only 7 states, the Obama campaign is in full blown panic mode.

ManlyRash on October 12, 2012 at 12:52 PM

..well, looks like BendMeOverAndPokeMe is the Lucky Pierre of the Day! He, LiverSpotsForfree and BendMe’s Guatemalan pool boy live-in lover get to console themselves this afternoon as their pathetic little world crumbles.

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Somebody pls illuminate me on the guatemalan pool boy lover eeference. ..I hate when I am missing on ‘cultural’ references :) (the HA blog culture that is :)

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:52 PM

THIS MAP IS GOING RED!

Oil Can on October 12, 2012 at 12:34 PM

While we’re on the subject-

I say we take a vote and choose our own damn color instead of simply using the one provided to our side by the MSM because to have the left colored red is way too much truth for them to handle.

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:54 PM

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