Oh my: Romney up 7 in new VA poll

posted at 11:21 am on October 12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

A new poll from McLaughlin & Associates, highlighted by Breitbart’s Tony Lee, provides even more supporting evidence for Suffolk University’s conclusion that there’s not much chance of Barack Obama winning the state.  Mitt Romney has taken a seven-point lead and grabbed a majority, 51/44, in the survey taken on Monday and Tuesday of 600 likely voters in the state.  More importantly, Romney has a double-digit lead among independents (via Drudge Report):

According to a McLaughlin & Associates poll that had an R+.02 sample, Romney leads Obama in Virginia 51%-44%.

Among independents, Romney beats Obama by 11 points, 50%-39%.

If these numbers hold for Romney, Romney could be free to expand the electoral map and more aggressively make plays for states like Michigan and Pennsylvania that were considered “reaches” just two weeks ago.

The sample in this case was almost exactly split between Republicans and Democrats, with independents overshadowing both.  The D/R/I was 30.3/30.5/38.2.  That, however, is a pretty far cry from 2008′s 39/33/27, or even 2009′s 33/37/30, at least in terms of the independent vote.  Oversampling independents will drive Romney’s top-line numbers up higher, and while Republican enthusiasm is up nationwide, the number of federal government employees in Virginia might dampen that in the Commonwealth.

The split between Republicans and Democrats seem reasonable as an electoral model, however.  It is almost evenly split between 2008 and 2009 turnout, and so gives us a pretty decent predictive model while taking the oversample of independents into consideration.  But even on that score, there isn’t much solace for Team Obama in these numbers.  Obama won independents in 2008 by a single point, 49/48, on his way to a six-point win in Virginia.  If Romney’s leading independents by eleven — and 229 voters is a pretty decent subsample for state polling — then Obama has almost no chance of prevailing without a massive increase in Democratic enthusiasm, one that would have to far surpass anything seen in 2008.


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Humpbot!

jnelchef on October 12, 2012 at 12:54 PM

I ain’t on that dang list. Kool just made an error. I corrected for the record. Besides blink really wanted it.

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Et tu, Brute??:) maybe pokemewithapoll has more of a charisma and a magnetism about him than I thought :)…

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:54 PM

U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to its highest level in five years in October as consumers became more optimistic about the overall economy in a possible boost to President Obama’s reelection hopes next month.

From CNBC…

Consumer Sentiment Rises Unexpectedly to 5-Year High

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s preliminary October reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 83.1, up from 78.3 the month before, and the highest since September 2007, the survey showed on Friday.

It was well above the median forecast for a slight decline to 78 among economists polled by Reuters.

The new buoyancy among consumers comes shortly after the U.S. unemployment rate tumbled to its lowest level in nearly four years in September as more people returned to the workforce and found jobs than economist had predicted. (Read more: America’s Highest Paying Jobs)

“We are getting some quite interesting signals from consumer sentiment and employment data — both (the) unemployment rate and initial claims — that there has been some quite significant improvement in the economy,” said David Sloan, an economist at 4Cast in New York.

gumbyandpokey on October 12, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Like I’ve said before, if there is a sense of Obama being defeated and things changing the consumer (70% of economic spending) is going to lose the purse strings and you could see pent up demand and spending, explode the economy in a good way starting in the next few weeks.

For FOUR FREAKING YEARS we’ve had to hold back and have been scared of what is coming……..and if that failure is removed……..THAT is an economic recover.

DEFEATING OBAMA is the ULTIMATE ECONOMIC STIMULUS.

PappyD61 on October 12, 2012 at 12:56 PM

While we’re on the subject-

I say we take a vote and choose our own damn color instead of simply using the one provided to our side by the MSM because to have the left colored red is way too much truth for them to handle.

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:54 PM

I know, it bothers me too, red for the conservatives??? it’s soo counterintuitive.

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:57 PM

If you throw out the biased NBC polls, Romney is starting to win big everywhere.

Tater Salad on October 12, 2012 at 12:57 PM

I live in CT and I would say Romney signs are two to one around where I live in Fairfield co. In 08 it was probably 5-1 favoring Obama. Not saying Obama would take the state but just taking the tempeture of how people are feeling. A lot of upper mid management and smaller biz owners hit hard. And a lot of unhappiness with our Democrat Gov. We might pull off sending a Republican… Linda McMahon to the Senate. Tons of super PAC and national Dem party ads trying to save the Lieberman seat. Unfortunately there will be ballots found in Bridgeport just like what happened with the recent Gov election

Caseoftheblues on October 12, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Et tu, Brute??:) maybe pokemewithapoll has more of a charisma and a magnetism about him than I thought :)…

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Lol! No I just don’t do well in groups. Even admirable groups.I want him banned. I have asked Ed to ban it. I therefore do not fit into a group and am not well liked by some here for my trouble. ; )

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Play like we’re behind until the buzzer.

Seriously.

Bruno Strozek on October 12, 2012 at 12:58 PM

It’s clear the I’s are making the difference for Romney; Biden didn’t help last night with his antics.

Tater Salad on October 12, 2012 at 12:59 PM

If Romney has a lock on VA, NC, and FL, that leaves him just 22 EV short of 270:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=HnB

That leaves just 6 battleground states, with 10 winning combos.
OH and any other state and he wins.

And… PA may not be safe for Obama.

There’s a chance this could happen, people.

Play like we’re behind until the buzzer.

Seriously.

Bruno Strozek on October 12, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Yep.

peski on October 12, 2012 at 1:04 PM

I’ve told this story before but I don’t think I would make any predictions based on signs. In 2008 around Jacksonville, FL, I saw very very few Obama signs in the run up to the election. Then on election day when I drove to work they were EVERYWHERE! It creeped me out.

Cindy Munford on October 12, 2012 at 1:04 PM

The RCP average has Obama up by 1.3 percentage points. However, the average MofE works out to between 3 and 4 points, which means it’s a statistical draw.

ManlyRash on October 12, 2012 at 12:52 PM

The Ohio “poll” with the lowest Margin of Error (2.6) has Romney ahead.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Anyone know why RCP hasn’t included this poll yet in their Virginia average yet? They’ve included them in the past…

seven_of_8 on October 12, 2012 at 1:06 PM

The RCP average has Obama up by 1.3 percentage points. However, the average MofE works out to between 3 and 4 points, which means it’s a statistical draw.

ManlyRash on October 12, 2012 at 12:52 PM

The Ohio “poll” with the lowest Margin of Error (2.6) has Romney ahead.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Looking at the RCP average right now, and it’s Romney up by 1.1.

peski on October 12, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Lol! No I just don’t do well in groups. Even admirable groups.I want him banned. I have asked Ed to ban it. I therefore do not fit into a group and am not well liked by some here for my trouble. ; )

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:57 PM

not a big collectivist myself either :) …i never clamor for people to be banned, but obviously this one annoying little character’s sole purpose is to destabilize and provoke…ed should put him out of his misery and let go of him already :)…

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 1:07 PM

DEFEATING OBAMA is the ULTIMATE ECONOMIC STIMULUS.

PappyD61 on October 12, 2012 at 12:56 PM

It will be like removing cement overshoes and putting on running shoes.

VorDaj on October 12, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan and Pennsylvania are now the main swing states.

VorDaj on October 12, 2012 at 1:10 PM

A few days ago, Romney was in VA near coal country. I commented on HotAir that he should pick up some votes there. It is not just miners, it also is electricy consumers. The same, of course, applies to Pennsylvania.

burt on October 12, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Ohio is in mid-flip.

Team Barry knows it.

Tuesday should seal it.

budfox on October 12, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Romney is running the coal ads in western PA because those stations reach eastern Ohio. And if they help in westner PA, that’s a bonus. Still seeing nothing in Philly except a couple of Obama ads on late-night TV and during the Yankees-Orioles game (puzzling, because nobody in Philly gives a crap about the Yankees or Orioles.)

rockmom on October 12, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Play like we’re behind until the buzzer.

Seriously.

Bruno Strozek on October 12, 2012 at 12:58 PM

..paging rogerb, paging rogerb..

..this needs to be archived and played back HOURLY — ON EVERY THREAD — so we keep our heads in the game. Kinda like OmahaConservative’s incessant (but mellifluous) pleas to elect Scott Brown in 2010!

The War Planner on October 12, 2012 at 1:31 PM

If Romney wins Florida, Virgina, Ohio, and New Hampshire, it’s President Romney.

Dollayo on October 12, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Looking at the RCP average right now, and it’s Romney up by 1.1.
peski on October 12, 2012 at 1:07 PM

RCP should drop Gallop from the averages. Gallop has admitted that they changed their model under pressure from the Obama campaign, all the while being under investigation from the DOJ ( same thing ).

Mark

mailmars on October 12, 2012 at 1:42 PM

While we’re on the subject-

I say we take a vote and choose our own damn color instead of simply using the one provided to our side by the MSM because to have the left colored red is way too much truth for them to handle.

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:54 PM

I vote for black with a skull and crosbones.

eyedoc on October 12, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:54 PM

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Red-Left and Blue-Right is traditional, but there wasn’t overall consistency on TV until 2000. Durin the Bush-Gore mess the name stuck.

TV Guide selected his use of the white dry eraser board (Florida, Florida, Florida) on Election Night 2000 as one of the “100 Most Memorable TV Moments” in history. The Washington Post credits him with coining the phrase “red state” and “blue state” to explain the nation’s political divide.

Wiki has a long article on Red State/Blue State.

INC on October 12, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Whoops, that ‘his’ above refers to Tim Russert. Sorry, I need coffee.

INC on October 12, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Play like we’re behind until the buzzer.

Seriously.

Bruno Strozek on October 12, 2012 at 12:58 PM

THAT!!!

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 1:49 PM

If I was the speechwriter for Romney this is what I would have him say for a closing statement before the election:

“My fellow Americans, I know that you feel there’s something wrong with our country. With the direction it’s been heading the past 4 years. You don’t have to try hard to feel it. You can feel it in your bones. When you watch the news. When you talk to your family and friends. When and if you are able to go to work.

Now, I know that we Americans are a patient group of people. This is a nation of reasonable, hard working individuals. But we can all tell when something is not working. For the past 4 years we’ve seen our nation stumble along with 1% growth, 25 million of our people out of work, and 1+ trillion deficits. That is not what real recovery looks like. If you elect me as your president, we can begin the road to a real, strong, sustainable recovery. We already have the people, we have the resources, and we have the will. All we need are the right policies. So let’s stop stumbling along and get America moving again. America can do much better. We all deserve much better. Thank you.”

tkyang99 on October 12, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Happy Nomad on October 12, 2012 at 12:54 PM

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Red-Left and Blue-Right is traditional, but there wasn’t overall consistency on TV until 2000. Durin the Bush-Gore mess the name stuck.

TV Guide selected his use of the white dry eraser board (Florida, Florida, Florida) on Election Night 2000 as one of the “100 Most Memorable TV Moments” in history. The Washington Post credits him with coining the phrase “red state” and “blue state” to explain the nation’s political divide.

Wiki has a long article on Red State/Blue State.

INC on October 12, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Thanks, I was curious as for the bizarre inversion and the history behind it. So I see Gore takes credit for creating color trends in politics too, not just for creating the internet :)…The thing is I always felt somehow ‘color-dyslexic’ here, in the US, when it comes to the symbolism of political colors :)…In Europe, that had real history with socialism/commuism, red could never be associated with anything but the left wing, sometimes with the extreme versions and wings of it, but I can tell you it is loathed as a symbolic color in Eastern and Central Europe (I don’t think Americans or Western Europeans relate too much to that though). As for the rest of Europe, modern left there are relatively ok with red being used in connection with their political campaigns (in the UK red is traditionally the color of Labour, and logically, blue is for the tories). So yeah, I get it that this red color pinned to he Republicans when they show the national electoral maps, is not their choice, buf still, maybe they should start objecting to it :)

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Looking at the RCP average right now, and it’s Romney up by 1.1.
peski on October 12, 2012 at 1:07 PM

RCP should drop Gallop from the averages. Gallop has admitted that they changed their model under pressure from the Obama campaign, all the while being under investigation from the DOJ ( same thing ).

Mark

mailmars on October 12, 2012 at 1:42 PM

I wonder what it is without Gallup?

kcd on October 12, 2012 at 2:23 PM

I don’t think that Ohio will be close. Romney has the internals going his way. 3-5 point win, maybe a little more in the end. I think Mich will tease, but just too many UAW workers up there to overcome.

PA I am starting to wonder.

Zomcon JEM on October 12, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Obama’s only hope is to take OH, and then hope he doesn’t lose some equivalent combination of NH, MI, IA, CO, NV, NM, and Maine’s 2nd District.

TallDave on October 12, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Zomcon — OH looks to be going to Romney… and with it Obama’s last hope.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838#.UG4tlBj2FNi

TallDave on October 12, 2012 at 2:28 PM

I call B.S.! Take me off the dang list. Talking about it or at it is not the same thing. When I ask Ed to swing the hammer at it, that didn’t count why should this?

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM

….sorry!…got busy for a couple of hours!…didn’t want you to feel left out B!

This one amost qualifiez for the hall of fame of dumb flukes :)..how did shade, blink and liam got on the list? :)

jimver on October 12, 2012 at 12:38 PM

…I think it was the lure of the drawing!

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 2:31 PM

ShadowsPawn on October 12, 2012 at 12:35 PM

…dumb fluke #66
(good number though!)

KOOLAID2 on October 12, 2012 at 2:36 PM

PA I am starting to wonder.
Zomcon JEM on October 12, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Obama polled 47 percent to Romney’s 45 percent among likely Pennsylvania voters, with 6 percent of voters undecided and 44 days until Election Day, according to the survey by Susquehanna Polling & Research. The survey of 800 voters, conducted Sept. 18-20, has a margin of error of 3.46 percentage points

ROMNEY/RYAN need to do more in Pa. If its not too late. In September there was only a 2 point spread between the two there.

kcd on October 12, 2012 at 2:40 PM

W.R. Mead

Will the Benghazi debacle cost Obama the election?

I should hope so!!!

kcd on October 12, 2012 at 2:44 PM

I believe all these polls are fairly worthless.. well they do reflect the trend..

The extremely high turnout for the right or as the MSM will call it “Unexpected”, “Surprising” will render all this hand wringing moot..
The “Poll” takers are showing they are not as smart as they would have us all believe..

Romney will win by a comfortable margin.

RockyJ. on October 12, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Romney will win by a comfortable margin.

RockyJ. on October 12, 2012 at 2:52 PM

That CO University election prediction model seems to be right on the money, after all. When i saw the numbers originally I never thought they can represent reality, but now they look more and more like reality we’re seeing, day by day. 330 for Romney and 200 for Hussein. Seems about right today…

riddick on October 12, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 11:57 AM
…NOT YOU TOO!…#62!

My nom is absolutely impervious to stupidity from the left and from the right.

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 3:46 PM

I ain’t on that dang list. Kool just made an error. I corrected for the record. Besides blink really wanted it.

Bmore on October 12, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Wuss. You had a chance to be in the same club with me, not that I’ll ever join a club which wants me (I’m like Grouch Marx in this regard).

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 3:49 PM

blink on October 12, 2012 at 3:05 PM

It’s simpler than that. Whales and sharks consume plankton.

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 3:49 PM

It’s half time in America“, Punk.

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 3:53 PM

An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

The tiny man was sarcastic. Let him be. They are clueless and I love them in that state of delusion.

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 3:54 PM

You know there are going to be a few Marc Rich incidents, definitiely…but the Narcissist in Chief won’t sully his legacy too badly (ie; missing silverware)

FlaMurph on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

I am less concerned about that transition than I am about the tweets I’m seeing on Twitchy about the promised rioting.

Too, I’m concerned about what they are going to pull in the 2 months’ lame duck session. Sleeper libs in all of the civil service jobs, midnight irrevocable legislation, etc., etc.

rah1420 on October 12, 2012 at 12:32 PM

And I’m concerned that shredder trucks will back up to the White House and the Capitol Building and operate 24/7 until Inauguration Day, and we’ll never be able to find out the true extent of the lies, corruption, and treason perpetrated by this Administration.

Mary in LA on October 12, 2012 at 4:07 PM

blink on October 12, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Don’t hold it against him; he’ll regret it :)

Schadenfreude on October 12, 2012 at 4:12 PM

And I’m concerned that shredder trucks will back up to the White House and the Capitol Building and operate 24/7 until Inauguration Day, and we’ll never be able to find out the true extent of the lies, corruption, and treason perpetrated by this Administration.

Mary in LA on October 12, 2012 at 4:07 PM

That, I’m certain, is a foregone conclusion unless there are some people with principles who can hold documents back a la “Erin Brockovich’s” little smoking gun.

rah1420 on October 12, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Chuck Schick on October 12, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Well Played.

Del Dolemonte on October 12, 2012 at 5:15 PM

I can hardly wait for Obama to appear behind the podium with the seal of:

THE OFFICE OF THE EX-PRESIDENT

fred5678 on October 12, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Romentum

thinkagain on October 12, 2012 at 10:26 PM

An absolutely devastating polling day for the Obama campaign. My nerves are shot…

libfreeordie on October 12, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Music to my ears. And nothing whatsoever wrong with your intonation.

hawkdriver on October 13, 2012 at 12:06 AM

If I was the speechwriter for Romney this is what I would have him say for a closing statement before the election:

“My fellow Americans, I know that you feel there’s something wrong with our country. With the direction it’s been heading the past 4 years. You don’t have to try hard to feel it. You can feel it in your bones. When you watch the news. When you talk to your family and friends. When and if you are able to go to work.

Now, I know that we Americans are a patient group of people. This is a nation of reasonable, hard working individuals. But we can all tell when something is not working. For the past 4 years we’ve seen our nation stumble along with 1% growth, 25 million of our people out of work, and 1+ trillion deficits. That is not what real recovery looks like. If you elect me as your president, we can begin the road to a real, strong, sustainable recovery. We already have the people, we have the resources, and we have the will. All we need are the right policies. So let’s stop stumbling along and get America moving again. America can do much better. We all deserve much better. Thank you.”

tkyang99 on October 12, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Excellent!

Nicole Coulter on October 13, 2012 at 4:02 AM

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