Oh my: New Florida poll shows Romney up by seven overall — and up two among Latinos

posted at 7:11 pm on October 11, 2012 by Allahpundit

First real earthquake poll that I can recall at the state level, not unlike how Monday’s Pew national poll felt. I’m tempted to break out the mushroom cloud thumbnail, but … no, not yet. Let’s save that for the last two weeks.

Second look at that Suffolk pollster’s decision to stop polling Florida?

The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a “bad night” at the first debate.

The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate…

Across the board, from who is better suited to improve the economy, to who will protect Medicare, to looking out for the middle-class, to handling foreign policy, likely Florida voters now favor the former Massachusetts governor over the president…

Especially ominous were the numbers for Hispanic voters, a demographic where the Obama campaign is banking on an advantage of at least 15 percentage points. The poll showed 44 percent of likely Hispanic voters favoring Obama and 46 for Romney, though the margin of error is higher with that smaller group of voters.

Among independents, an 11-point lead for Obama last month is now a 13-point lead for Romney, which jibes with the Mitt-mentum you’re seeing within that group across multiple polls. How bad is it for O? Dude:

Whose plans are more likely to do more long-term harm to Medicare? Obama 54 percent, Romney 40 percent.

Can’t tell from the sparse data here whether that result is a byproduct of the state shifting for Romney generally or something more particular to the specific issue as the Romney/Ryan message on entitlements penetrates, but it’s encouraging. I recommend following the link up top and reading the methodology on how the poll was conducted, as Team O is already spinning it as defective. Mason-Dixon, the pollster, uses a sample based on actual registration data to try to match it to the electorate; other pollsters typically don’t, which may help explain why only one other poll has shown a lead this big for either candidate in Florida since early August.

In lieu of the traditional HA celebration cameo from Humpbot, I offer you this new clip via Katie Pavlich and Townhall, which is far more enjoyable.


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Whoo Hoo

Bishop right?

CoffeeLover on October 11, 2012 at 7:13 PM

…the Latinos don’t like Big Bird?

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 7:13 PM

BOOM.

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 7:13 PM

I bet this one shakes Gumby loose from beneath the toilet seat.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:14 PM

si se puede.

biotches.

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 7:14 PM

They must have something against Elmo or are a bunch of racists, or something.

Philly on October 11, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Cutter and Bret Baier had a great sit down tonight as well…

d1carter on October 11, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Love Katie —- :) nice job with Cutter.

CoffeeLover on October 11, 2012 at 7:15 PM

stay cool, vote.

rob verdi on October 11, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Anticipated liberal retort:

But Cubans aren’t real latinos

Glenn Jericho on October 11, 2012 at 7:15 PM

and up two among Latinos

Doesn’t this bit, at least, fall under the “don’t get cocky, kid” meme? I thought Florida Hispanics always trended more Republican than in most other places, due to the Cuban population.

malclave on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

si se puede.

biotches.

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Lolz.

Boom shakalaka boom.

SparkPlug on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

YEAH – this is encouraging

Stephanie Cutter is a disgrace. A revolting person.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

I’m tempted to break out the mushroom cloud thumbnail, but … no, not yet.

effin RINO tease!!!

/

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate…

They could shift back from undecided to Obama if he has a pulse in the next debate, but Romney would still have a sizable lead.

Wigglesworth on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

But what about the Big Bird Bounce Obama was getting?

midgeorgian on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

٩(๏̯͡๏)۶

Trolls are screaming.

SparkPlug on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

So Obama is moving the White House to Cleveland tonight. Get ready for Cleveland D.C.

rubberneck on October 11, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Media: Biden won the debate tonight.

Reality: So what?

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Ok, that’s Florida in the bag, NC and Virginia probably, CO quite possible. The only two dominoes to fall are OH and NV and Romney has this sewn up. That’s probably over 270 but who cares?

Ozwitch on October 11, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Have a nice day, Stephanie. LOL

Philly on October 11, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Panic at the Obama Disco!

thebrokenrattle on October 11, 2012 at 7:17 PM

My question: Will ANYONE ask Cutter tonight if she cares that four Americans are dead because State was sending Chevy Volts to embassies and denying requests for security in Benghazi?

ANYONE?!

UnderstandingisPower on October 11, 2012 at 7:17 PM

They must have something against Elmo or are a bunch of racists, or something.

Philly on October 11, 2012 at 7:14 PM

They’ve been outed as SpongeBob Squarepants supporters.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:17 PM

FL, VA, NC, OH, and one more state does it. Seems like the best path to me.

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I heard Romney was up 3 in Pennsylvania, too.

BREAKING: WaPo declares Biden the winner of the debate.

John the Libertarian on October 11, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Time for Gumby/Greg with some bearded Spock universe polls.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 11, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Romney will win Florida by 5-7%

We all seem to forget Crist was supposedly up or tied with Rubio – who crushed him by 19%.

From 2000 to 2004 – The so-called anti-christ Bush GAINED votes.

2008 was a “The First…” blip on a map.

Odie1941 on October 11, 2012 at 7:18 PM

The poll showed 44 percent of likely Hispanic voters favoring Obama and 46 for Romney, though the margin of error is higher with that smaller group of voters.

Maybe Hispanics decided they don’t like Obama using their relatives to hike death statistics back in the hoe country so as to facilitate his gun control policies here in the US.

In all likelihood, though, this is Nobama vote on bowing and kissing Castro and Chavez.

Dusty on October 11, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Oh my: New Florida poll shows Romney up by seven overall — and up two among Latinos

Thing to keep in mind: Floridian Latinos aren’t like other Latinos due to the major Cuban skew. Although probably an accurate reflection of Florida, don’t count on that to be replicated in other states.

Stoic Patriot on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

You know what? Having a path is nice – but I want a freaking’ ROUT.

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

My question: Will ANYONE ask Cutter tonight if she cares that four Americans are dead because State was sending Chevy Volts to embassies and denying requests for security in Benghazi?

ANYONE?!

UnderstandingisPower on October 11, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Check out Ace’s. Cutter fled an interview.

John the Libertarian on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jcjM27is2g&feature=youtu.be

Lansing TV report that Obama campaign has locked the doors and pulled out of MI.

Ann Romney is reported headed to Michigan!

crosspatch on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Good times with Steph there! lolz

dont taze me bro on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

gumby not enjoying the poking from this pole.

bayview on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Baring Biden making 7/11 jokes and speaking the entire debate with his “gon put y’all back in chains” accent, the media will be going overboard to declare him the winner.

midgeorgian on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Stephanie Cutter is a disgrace. A revolting person.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

You have to feel for her. She cannot get a real job and she is stuck being a water carrier for this joke of a Presidency.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

It could be a statistical anomaly, but I wouldn’t count on that.
Very promising.

Count to 10 on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

My question: Will ANYONE ask Cutter tonight if she cares that four Americans are dead because State was sending Chevy Volts to embassies and denying requests for security in Benghazi?

ANYONE?!

UnderstandingisPower on October 11, 2012 at 7:17 PM

That’s politicizing on the bodies of the dead.

But, hey! Obama ‘got’ Osama!

Now, about that heartless Romney war on Big Bird…

Liam on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Oh darn.

I was kinda curious what this flexibility was with Russia that Obama spoke..

Oh well

Electrongod on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

You know what? Having a path is nice – but I want a freaking’ ROUT.

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

I want Obama to have to come here before the election because Minnesota is in doubt.

I want a thrashing of Reagan/Mondale proportions.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Aye dios mio!

newportmike on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Thing to keep in mind: Floridian Latinos aren’t like other Latinos due to the major Cuban skew. Although probably an accurate reflection of Florida, don’t count on that to be replicated in other states.

Stoic Patriot on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Thanks Capn Obvious. Sheesh.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

You have to feel for her. She cannot get a real job and she is stuck being a water carrier for this joke of a Presidency.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

I don’t feel for her at all. I don’t think she has much of a soul.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jcjM27is2g&feature=youtu.be

Lansing TV report that Obama campaign has locked the doors and pulled out of MI.

Ann Romney is reported headed to Michigan!

crosspatch on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Like watching some kind of war game.

Count to 10 on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Thanks Capn Obvious. Sheesh.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

You’re welcome. :)

Stoic Patriot on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Did anyone else see this nutjob Cutter on Special Report tonite? Oh my- Girlfriend is losing it! I think Bret Bair felt sorry for her.

BettyRuth on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Yahoo!! That’s my state! This is awesome!!

Minorcan Maven on October 11, 2012 at 7:22 PM

You have to feel for her. She cannot get a real job and she is stuck being a water carrier for this joke of a Presidency.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

I hope you were being ‘nice’ there.

Feeling for Cutter is like showing mercy to the SS–vermin who would shoot you in the back even after you gave them water when they were parched.

The liberals set the tone here: No mercy, no quarter.

Liam on October 11, 2012 at 7:24 PM

oooh this is even better

Wow RT @sahilkapur Mason-Dixon FL poll. RT @samsteinhp Whose plans do you think will do more long term harm to Medicare: Obama 54, Romney 40

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Juntos con Mitt!

terryannonline on October 11, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Thing to keep in mind: Floridian Latinos aren’t like other Latinos due to the major Cuban skew. Although probably an accurate reflection of Florida, don’t count on that to be replicated in other states.

Stoic Patriot on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Are you insane? (yeah, I know, rhetorical)

Floriduh’s fulla New Yoricans.

But this makes sense.

One lousy obama sign and a handful of stickers at best.

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Stoic Patriot on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

You’ll take any opportunity to p*ss on Romney and any hope for his success. Loser.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Did anyone else see this nutjob Cutter on Special Report tonite? Oh my- Girlfriend is losing it! I think Bret Bair felt sorry for her.

BettyRuth on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

She’s got to be mentally ill. I don’t what else to say.

rrpjr on October 11, 2012 at 7:25 PM

I hope you were being ‘nice’ there.

Feeling for Cutter is like showing mercy to the SS–vermin who would shoot you in the back even after you gave them water when they were parched.

The liberals set the tone here: No mercy, no quarter.

Liam on October 11, 2012 at 7:24 PM

No doubt.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Juntos con Mitt!

terryannonline on October 11, 2012 at 7:24 PM

I like that drawing of the girl with the headphones reading a book, but you know what it needs? A cat curled up.

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I want Obama to have to come here before the election because Minnesota is in doubt.

I want a thrashing of Reagan/Mondale proportions.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Me too.

changer1701 on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I hope you were being ‘nice’ there.

Feeling for Cutter is like showing mercy to the SS–vermin who would shoot you in the back even after you gave them water when they were parched.

The liberals set the tone here: No mercy, no quarter.

Liam on October 11, 2012 at 7:24 PM

This
Run the Democrats out of Washington and never let them govern again

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Stephanie Cutter is a disgrace. A revolting person.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

You have to feel for her. She cannot get a real job and she is stuck being a water carrier for this joke of a Presidency.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

I don’t feel for Cutter in the least. She willingly chose to be a spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, so she deserves whatever befalls her. She’s obviously a pathological liar.

GrannyDee on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Now Republicans believe in polls!! Before the debate most hotair posters thought they were worthless. Now polls have never been more accurate lol. Having said all that I do believe that if the election was held today Romney would win. Obama is going to have to do a lot better on the next debate and call Romney out on his flip flops. Plus expectations are going to be rock bottom for Obama so its going to be very easy for him to change the narrative. Romney is only up by 1 nationally so the race is very much within striking distance.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I may sleep well for the first time in 5 years tonight, thinking my family will finally be fed in the future!

Chewy the Lab on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I like that drawing of the girl with the headphones reading a book, but you know what it needs? A cat curled up.

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Thanks!

terryannonline on October 11, 2012 at 7:27 PM

The Hopey Titanic,just did another…..

S..C..R..E.E.E.E.E.E.E.E.T.C.H across Mittens IceBerg,

and she,er,it,is going down,by the bow,oh wait,it
just struck a long lost WW2 Mine,

er wait,the smoke,er,icey mist is clearing,

shes going…..going…….going……..(snark)

canopfor on October 11, 2012 at 7:27 PM

You’ll take any opportunity to p*ss on Romney and any hope for his success. Loser.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Only because he’s so deserving. Funny how you’re so sour about it.

Stoic Patriot on October 11, 2012 at 7:27 PM

No doubt.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Just checking in, CW. Covering my bases, and all. ~S~

Liam on October 11, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Cripes. DWS looks like a lab rat.

SparkPlug on October 11, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Did anyone else see this nutjob Cutter on Special Report tonite? Oh my- Girlfriend is losing it! I think Bret Bair felt sorry for her.

BettyRuth on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

I did. She tried to get all up into Bret’s face but he nicely pushed her back into her corner and get her to attempt to answer his questions.

CoffeeLover on October 11, 2012 at 7:28 PM

For a good laugh turn on Hardball on MSNBC. Matthews is having orgasms over the VP debate, pretingling over what he believes will be a thrashing of Ryan by Joe Biden.

Sort of how he was acting prior to the Romney/Obama debate.

It’s called absence of learning curve.

fogw on October 11, 2012 at 7:28 PM

I don’t feel for her at all. I don’t think she has much of a soul.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

No, she has a soul, bought and paid for by the devil.

TXUS on October 11, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Let’s not get cocky, folks.

JPeterman on October 11, 2012 at 7:29 PM

canopfor on October 11, 2012 at 7:27 PM

No! Not Iceberg Mittens!

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 7:29 PM

I hope you were being ‘nice’ there.

Feeling for Cutter is like showing mercy to the SS–vermin who would shoot you in the back even after you gave them water when they were parched.

The liberals set the tone here: No mercy, no quarter.

Liam on October 11, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Liam:

Its been a loooooooooong five years,of the Hopey/Changey
Perpetual Hope/and EverNoneLasting Change!

canopfor on October 11, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Did anyone else see this nutjob Cutter on Special Report tonite? Oh my- Girlfriend is losing it! I think Bret Bair felt sorry for her.

BettyRuth on October 11, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Yes, I heard part of it. She sounded unhinged – completely – shouting over Brett repeating the same things over and over.

Terrible. She sounded panicked, as well she should.

Cody1991 on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

You have to feel for her. She cannot get a real job and she is stuck being a water carrier for this joke of a Presidency.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

One of my dream jobs has been being a spokesperson. Er, not anymore! LOL!

terryannonline on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Is this a pre-or-post Big Bird poll?

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

For a good laugh turn on Hardball on MSNBC.

fogw on October 11, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Umm, let’s not and say we did. I gotta weak stomach.

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

This
Run the Democrats out of Washington and never let them govern again

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I’m worse about that.

I want to see liberals and their Dem Party ostracized by public opinion for decades to come for what they are.

I don’t want liberals and other Dems just ‘out of power’.

I want to see them all unwelcome–persona non grata–at even a soup kitchen.

Liam on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Stephanie Cutter, the “adult” version of the snarky eighth grade princess who thinks she’s all that. The “Okay, we’re good” and the slight hair toss were the icing on her middle school caricature. A perfect fir for the adolescent Obama administration.

susietwo on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

HA trolls hardest hit. They’ve been getting awfully quiet as the polls come rolling out.

farsighted on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

canopfor on October 11, 2012 at 7:27 PM

No! Not Iceberg Mittens!

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Lanceman:

Well it looks harmless till ya get below the water level,haha,
ahem——:)

canopfor on October 11, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Katie, hold the phone horizontal.

Bmore on October 11, 2012 at 7:31 PM

It’s almost over. The darkness of the last 4 years is starting to fade. This is no post debate bump, we’re seeing the beginning of a resurgent America in it’s infancy. Yeah, I’m optimistic, but I just don’t feel like Romney is going to lose. This is 1980 redux, history repeats itself in cycles, and there’s still enough makers (as opposed to takers) left in America to stop this Marxist from doing irreparable damage.

1984 in real life on October 11, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Yes, I heard part of it. She sounded unhinged – completely – shouting over Brett repeating the same things over and over.

Terrible. She sounded panicked, as well she should.

Cody1991 on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Why does Obama keep putting her out there then? She’s doing a horrible job.

terryannonline on October 11, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Maybe Obowma’s foreign policy is finally starting to catch up to him…

… Eh Esse?

Obama’s Foreign Policy Summed Up: Benghazi and Fast & Furious

Seven Percent Solution on October 11, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Barry…

Barry…
Barry…
Barry…
etc…

Barry getting flushed.

SparkPlug on October 11, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Now Republicans believe in polls!! Before the debate most hotair posters thought they were worthless.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

You were clearly not paying attention. HA posters were critical of the bias not the polls. And small wonder when every single black/gay/hispanic/female had to go to the polls to support the assumptions behind the polls. And even with that the rat-eared coward is going down.

Happy Nomad on October 11, 2012 at 7:32 PM

This poll sounds about right to me. The past couple of days the Romney signs have literally exploded all over the place and more every day. Obama signs, slim pickings. Some communities down here don’t allow the signs do go up until 1 month before election day, so now, they are popping up like mushrooms.

BeachBum on October 11, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Stephanie Cutter, the “adult” version of the snarky eighth grade princess who thinks she’s all that. The “Okay, we’re good” and the slight hair toss were the icing on her middle school caricature. A perfect fir for the adolescent Obama administration.

susietwo on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Perfect – you just described her to a T

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:33 PM

*pinches self*

*shakes head*

*develops man-crush on AP*

..is this an AP post? Love the news AND love the uber-beyotch getting nailed by the Katie, the mean old Townhall lady!

(With apologies to Katy Pavlich at Townhall and our beloved Katie, the mean old lady.)

“..you saw my statement earlier?”

“Yes I did.”

“O.K., We’re good..”

Not by a long shot you lying crapsack-ette, not by a long shot.

The War Planner on October 11, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Now Republicans believe in polls!! Before the debate most hotair posters thought they were worthless.

We believe in polls we LIKE. we don’t like YOU

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Baring Biden making 7/11 jokes and speaking the entire debate with his “gon put y’all back in chains” accent, the media will be going overboard to declare him the winner.

midgeorgian on October 11, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Obiden is totally capable of making 9/11 jokes, like, “did ya hear the one about the ambassador that didn’t get away……..
plugs will be lucky if he doesn’t shock ryan by babbling incoherently and pissing behind the podium.

ConcealedKerry on October 11, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Most Latinos are smarter than your average Democrat. They are industrious and realize that socialism stifles their dreams and self determination.

kemojr on October 11, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Obama shouldn’t have phoned it in last Wednesday. Romney isn’t getting a bounce or a surge, he’s getting a freaking cascade. I think this election is almost over. The question won’t be whether Romney wins, but the margin.

Corporal Tunnel on October 11, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Where are the trolls?

JPeterman on October 11, 2012 at 7:34 PM

I’m seeing more Romney signs this week than before in liberal-heavy Northern Virginia.
I’m a little hopeful.

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:34 PM

And even with that the rat-eared coward is going down.

Happy Nomad on October 11, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Classy. If you don’t respect the man, then respect the office.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 7:35 PM

FL, VA, NC, OH, and one more state does it. Seems like the best path to me.

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Assuming he wins FL, FA, NC, I calculate that gives him 248, 22 short of 270. Whats left:

NV 6
CO 9
IA 6
WI 10
OH 18
NH 4

Without OH, WI and CO become huge. Unless, of course, he wins PA – golden.

Bottom line, those 6 or 7 (with PA) states are the whole story.

peski on October 11, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Anyone know how to run the defib paddles, Gumby is down and his chest is not rising.

hillsoftx on October 11, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3