Oh my: New Florida poll shows Romney up by seven overall — and up two among Latinos

posted at 7:11 pm on October 11, 2012 by Allahpundit

First real earthquake poll that I can recall at the state level, not unlike how Monday’s Pew national poll felt. I’m tempted to break out the mushroom cloud thumbnail, but … no, not yet. Let’s save that for the last two weeks.

Second look at that Suffolk pollster’s decision to stop polling Florida?

The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a “bad night” at the first debate.

The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate…

Across the board, from who is better suited to improve the economy, to who will protect Medicare, to looking out for the middle-class, to handling foreign policy, likely Florida voters now favor the former Massachusetts governor over the president…

Especially ominous were the numbers for Hispanic voters, a demographic where the Obama campaign is banking on an advantage of at least 15 percentage points. The poll showed 44 percent of likely Hispanic voters favoring Obama and 46 for Romney, though the margin of error is higher with that smaller group of voters.

Among independents, an 11-point lead for Obama last month is now a 13-point lead for Romney, which jibes with the Mitt-mentum you’re seeing within that group across multiple polls. How bad is it for O? Dude:

Whose plans are more likely to do more long-term harm to Medicare? Obama 54 percent, Romney 40 percent.

Can’t tell from the sparse data here whether that result is a byproduct of the state shifting for Romney generally or something more particular to the specific issue as the Romney/Ryan message on entitlements penetrates, but it’s encouraging. I recommend following the link up top and reading the methodology on how the poll was conducted, as Team O is already spinning it as defective. Mason-Dixon, the pollster, uses a sample based on actual registration data to try to match it to the electorate; other pollsters typically don’t, which may help explain why only one other poll has shown a lead this big for either candidate in Florida since early August.

In lieu of the traditional HA celebration cameo from Humpbot, I offer you this new clip via Katie Pavlich and Townhall, which is far more enjoyable.


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“So, what about that Jobs Report?”

/

Del Dolemonte on October 11, 2012 at 8:08 PM

ROFL – did a jobs report ever disappear quicker?
Especially with the fraudulent unemployment claims report that came out this week.

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 8:09 PM

You can ban some of the people all of the time and you can ban all of the people all of the time but you can’t ban some of the people some of the time.

SparkPlug on October 11, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Never heard of MrScribbler. I have a machine that tracks DIRe though; but not very well. DIRe could be anywhere.

SparkPlug on October 11, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Well, both you and 22444 ain’t been here that long. I’d say that Scribbler’s been here before me, I think.

But say hey to the Scrumper though.

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 8:11 PM

You can ban some of the people all of the time and you can ban all of the people all of the time but you can’t ban some of the people some of the time.

SparkPlug on October 11, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Bet ya’ can’t say that fast three times! :)

GrannyDee on October 11, 2012 at 8:11 PM

And for the record, I’m pro-aborto. Keeps the liberal ‘rat population down. I always say “But for abortion, we’d be up to our necks in ‘rats and out of work people”.

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Classifying your fellow Americans as subhuman for disagreeing with you politically- classy.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Stephanie Cutter is a disgrace. A revolting person.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

You have to feel for her. She cannot get a real job and she is stuck being a water carrier for this joke of a Presidency.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

I don’t feel for Cutter in the least. She willingly chose to be a spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, so she deserves whatever befalls her. She’s obviously a pathological liar.

GrannyDee on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

She also worked for Teddy Kennedy and Bill Clinton.

Del Dolemonte on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Classy. If you don’t respect the man, then respect the office.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 7:35 PM
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAA!

Chimpy McBushitler.

I’ll get right on that ‘respect’.

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 7:36 PM

I hate this oft repeated crap line “…you must respect the office”. Respect is earned and about the only thing the a-hole in chief has earned from me is my contempt. He also seems to have forgotten or more like doesn’t care that he reports to us.

texasmagnolia on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

She’s not quick on her feet. When looking for a spokesperson you would think that would be on top of the list.

terryannonline

Maybe she’s quick on her back.

Bazing!

xblade on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 8:11 PM

I’ve been commenting for a little less than a year. Before that I read for a little over 2 years.
So anyone who’s been here longer than that – has been here longer than me.

Hope Scrumpy’s having a good night.

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Stephanie Cutter is a disgrace. A revolting person.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 7:16 PM

You have to feel for her. She cannot get a real job and she is stuck being a water carrier for this joke of a Presidency.

CW on October 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

I don’t feel for Cutter in the least. She willingly chose to be a spokeswoman for the Obama campaign, so she deserves whatever befalls her. She’s obviously a pathological liar.

GrannyDee on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

She also worked for Teddy Kennedy and Bill Clinton.

Del Dolemonte on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Hokey Smokes, Del. That explains a lot.

GrannyDee on October 11, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Bing’s home page pretty much sums this debate up.

Funny.

Key West Reader on October 11, 2012 at 8:16 PM

canopfor on October 11, 2012 at 7:44 PM

That’s a bad move on their part. I suspect that Butch will declare that a terrorist attack and the manure a chemical weapon and bring down the ATFE on their butts.

Anything to distract.

slickwillie2001 on October 11, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Key West Reader on October 11, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Hey, KWR, how are you feeling? Good, I hope.

GrannyDee on October 11, 2012 at 8:17 PM

She also worked for Teddy Kennedy and Bill Clinton.

Del Dolemonte on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

That explains it.

Well, kudos to Cutter for landing on her feet after spending so much of her life on her back.

She really does fit the description, “rode hard and put up wet”. She looks like it, too.

Cody1991 on October 11, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Oh dear Lord

Jennifer Rubin ‏@JRubinBlogger

“@FreeBeacon: Obama tonight in Miami: “al Qaeda is on its heels and Osama bin Laden is dead””/OMG

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 8:19 PM

I’m worse about that.

I want to see liberals and their Dem Party ostracized by public opinion for decades to come for what they are.

I don’t want liberals and other Dems just ‘out of power’.

I want to see them all unwelcome–persona non grata–at even a soup kitchen.

Liam on October 11, 2012 at 7:30 PM

I have a dream of living in a world where I can go to parties without liberals shoving their political views in my face, of living in a world where I can watch TV or movies without having liberal political opinions as part of the script, where liberals know if they speak their rude, lying rhetoric they will be ridiculed by all the conservatives in the room who fire facts at them until their heads explode. I have a dream.

idalily on October 11, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Key West Reader on October 11, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Hey, KWR….. ~~waves~~~ Good to see you!

Cody1991 on October 11, 2012 at 8:20 PM

i haven’t see anything post-debate from PA? Ohio polling is all over the place post-debate, hard to make any sense of it yet.

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Which could be a sign that PA is also pretty much done deal. PA Senate race, even by liberal admission now, is way closer than they expected and I am sure the numbers we were given are skewed as well. Same as in Senate race in AZ, liberal spin on numbers there as well. Had liberals sensed any hope of winning that Senate seat they would not have retired Giffords. Just simple logic.

And as we know is true with most American public, once the tide turns more people tend to jump on it… So, yes, its a tide that will most likely only pick up from now on.

That CO election model that so far has not faltered in past elections is predicting not just a land slide for Romney, but annihilation: ~320 for Romney and 200+ for Hussein, with about 28 vote swing as margin of error in there built in. That 28 vote swing is no way enough for Hussein to overcome.

And the more we see, on daily basis now, the more I am convinced this CO model is very accurate. Give next 2 weeks for House Benghazi hearings, adjusted unemployment numbers (up), another Solyndra in the making ($400 MILLION this time) and increasing gas costs before Nov 6th and it all adds up, ominously for liberals.

And Romney must drive Fast and Furious message in every Latino market he can, that will only add to his numbers.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 8:20 PM

She also worked for under Teddy Kennedy and Bill Clinton.

Del Dolemonte on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

FIFY for greater clarity and precision.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 8:22 PM

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Unless he/she was banned Trueking coined that phrase and I am sure he will be back again when the GOP fouls up to gloat and say I told you so.

chemman on October 11, 2012 at 7:59 PM

TrueKing posted it not so long ago. Maybe after the roberts decision(?). I think Dire S. added the e “GOPe” and “For the TruCons” is definitely a DS invention.

BoxHead1 on October 11, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Moochelle is calling to get quotes from movers.

bayview on October 11, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Classifying your fellow Americans as subhuman for disagreeing with you politically- classy.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Why, because animals have better sense ethics than liberals do? You guys are nothing but cancer on society. Take it from someone who endured your kind in USSR.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Moochelle is calling to get quotes from movers.

bayview on October 11, 2012 at 8:24 PM

I’d help for free just to be sure that awful woman and her evil husband are gone from the WH.

GrannyDee on October 11, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Until I hear what Kunta Kinte and Dutch Kobald have to say about polls and Intrade I couldn’t care less what you mouf-breathers think…where are they?

JFKY on October 11, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Classifying your fellow Americans as subhuman for disagreeing with you politically- classy.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I learned from the best.

Until I hear what Kunta Kinte and Dutch Kobald have to say about polls and Intrade I couldn’t care less what you mouf-breathers think…where are they?

JFKY on October 11, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Why does Dutch Kobalt look like Urine VanDerSploot?

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 8:32 PM

e = elite

SparkPlug on October 11, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Yes, that I know. Or establishment I would suppose. My question was since Trueking originated the , The GOP will betray you. , did Dire modify it with the addition of the lower case e?

Bmore on October 11, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Ric is confused.

Bmore on October 11, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Oh dear Lord

Jennifer Rubin ‏@JRubinBlogger

“@FreeBeacon: Obama tonight in Miami: “al Qaeda is on its heels and Osama bin Laden is dead””/OMG

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 8:19 PM

.
Tell Hopey that Marco Rubio says - “The football you are trying to spike HAS NO AIR IN IT ANYMORE”

FlaMurph on October 11, 2012 at 8:36 PM

did Dire modify it with the addition of the lower case e?

Bmore on October 11, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Yes. For us truecons.

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Classy. If you don’t respect the man, then respect the office.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 7:35 PM

See 2000-2008, fool. Can’t take your own medicine? Are you going to cry?

Sekhmet on October 11, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Classifying your fellow Americans as subhuman for disagreeing with you politically- classy.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Why, because animals have better sense ethics than liberals do? You guys are nothing but cancer on society. Take it from someone who endured your kind in USSR.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Please tell me what my kind is? Because I’m pretty sure that they weren’t Theists in positions of power in the USSR who believed strongly in religious freedom. I’m saving your hateful rhetoric for the next hotair thread that has conservatives inveighing against liberals for being hateful and intolerant.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 8:38 PM

That CO election model that so far has not faltered in past elections is predicting not just a land slide for Romney, but annihilation: ~320 for Romney and 200+ for Hussein, with about 28 vote swing as margin of error in there built in. That 28 vote swing is no way enough for Hussein to overcome.

And the more we see, on daily basis now, the more I am convinced this CO model is very accurate. Give next 2 weeks for House Benghazi hearings, adjusted unemployment numbers (up), another Solyndra in the making ($400 MILLION this time) and increasing gas costs before Nov 6th and it all adds up, ominously for liberals.

And Romney must drive Fast and Furious message in every Latino market he can, that will only add to his numbers.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 8:20 PM

I saw that and I was shocked, although a lot of people here on HA did say indeed that CO would be red on election day. Needless to say I was skeptical at best. I agree about the new job unemployment revised numbers, a nw blow for baraka. I think they hurried to massage the data at the wrong time, they probably thought that it’s best to do it now coz people are paying most attention at this time in the election chcle. But the job report got lost in the commotion created by Mitt’s debate performance and nobody paid attention to them anymore, or simply disegarded them as untrue…now they are probably going to revise the unemployment numbers upward the week before the elections. That was the worst miscalculation the obama campaign could have possibly made, it will come back and bite them badly.

As for the Latino numbers, I was shocked to see that he picked 2% among latinos even here in cali, post-debate. Hre it doesn’t matter much, but if it’s a national trend, there are states where it will matter greatly.

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Now Republicans believe in polls!! Before the debate most hotair posters thought they were worthless.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I believe in all polls that show Romney winning. Any polls that don’t say what I want them to say are biased or skewed. Got it?

TarheelBen on October 11, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Classy. If you don’t respect the man, then respect the office.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 7:35 PM

See 2000-2008, fool. Can’t take your own medicine? Are you going to cry?

Sekhmet on October 11, 2012 at 8:37 PM

It was wrong then, and its wrong now. Two wrongs don’t make a right.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 8:40 PM

I truly believe Obama is evil.

He is evil. He hates humanity and is utterly without a soul. Did you hear what the mother of one of the murdered Americans in Benghazi said about him? How she cried on his shoulder and he just looked vacantly off into the distance.

He is a vile shell of a human being. And I’d love his acolyte trolls to argue otherwise.

Right Mover on October 11, 2012 at 8:40 PM

f you don’t respect the man, then respect the office.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 7:35 PM

The President, who goes on radio shows with “The Pimp with a Limp” and flies off to Vegas to campaign after Americans are murdered overseas, doesn’t have a shred of respect for the office. He doesn’t deserve a shred of our respect.

Right Mover on October 11, 2012 at 8:43 PM

I believe in all polls that show Romney winning. Any polls that don’t say what I want them to say are biased or skewed. Got it?

TarheelBen on October 11, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Got it loud and clear. You believe in feelings, not facts.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 8:43 PM

He is a vile shell of a human being. And I’d love his acolyte trolls to argue otherwise.

Right Mover on October 11, 2012 at 8:40 PM

They cannot. They are either vapid Entertainment Tonight types, ‘Rat heirarchy or truly believe they will be in the power structure should ‘rats prevail.

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Have I mentioned lately that I H8 ‘rats?

Lanceman on October 11, 2012 at 8:44 PM

And Romney must drive Fast and Furious message in every Latino market he can, that will only add to his numbers.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 8:20 PM

.
That may be so in the southwest…. But in So. Fla region, which is heavily Cuban, there is no love lost for the Mejicanos. The polling lie machine is starting to unravel and the supposed 65% Latino support is a hoax – like Hopey. Why the Cuban community dislikes the mexicans is a mystery to most Anglos- but it’s there.

And if Rubio does his job zero money should, at worst, split the so. Fla ” Hispanic” vote.

Florida is not a toss up. Hussein Obama barely got 51% in Fla in 2008. And he has been malo , ever since.

FlaMurph on October 11, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Classifying your fellow Americans as subhuman for disagreeing with you politically- classy.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 8:12 PM

They lefties are going to kill their progeny whether we like it or not, so why not look on the bright side?

Night Owl on October 11, 2012 at 8:50 PM

They lefties are going to kill their progeny whether we like it or not, so why not look on the bright side?

Night Owl on October 11, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Oops

Night Owl on October 11, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Got it loud and clear. You believe in feelings, not facts.

Ric on October 11, 2012 at 8:43 PM

No one can possibly be this obtuse and ignorant. You have been practicing this? Nonsense.

Bmore on October 11, 2012 at 8:55 PM

No one = Ric

Bmore on October 11, 2012 at 8:56 PM

As the Old Hockey Coach said:

“Play every shift like you’re two goals down with two minutes to play.”

and

“If I see any slacking out there your ass belongs to me.”

Bruno Strozek on October 11, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Especially ominous were the numbers for Hispanic voters, a demographic where the Obama campaign is banking on an advantage of at least 15 percentage points.

I don’t know that the Hispanic change is due solely to the Cuban voters in Florida.

I have Hispanic friends and co-workers in California and New Mexico. They are smart and perceptive people, just like anybody else.
My perception is that what they took away from last weeks debate was not that they thought Obama fell on his face; but they actually could see Romney as a leader.

5$ gas in California really hurts Hispanic families hard.

MichaelGabriel on October 11, 2012 at 8:59 PM

“The pollsters are lying too, just like Romney! They’re all liars! That explains why were still ahead but no one knows it.”

2ndMAW68 on October 11, 2012 at 9:00 PM

No one can possibly be this obtuse and ignorant.

Bmore on October 11, 2012 at 8:55 PM

I’ve never seen a troll that wasn’t.

farsighted on October 11, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Other polls within the past 24 hours:

Ohio (NBC/WSJ/Marist): Obama+6%
Virginia (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama+5%
Nevada (Suffolk/KSNV): Obama+2%
Wisconsin (CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac): Obama+3%
Michigan (Detroit News): Obama+7% & +2% (Gravis)
Pennsylvania (Philadelphia Inquirer): Obama+8%

BTW, another Florida poll by UNF on Wednesday claimed Obama was up by 4%.

Battleground states where Romney is in the lead: NC,FL,CO
Battleground states where Obama is ahead: OH, VA, MI, WI, IA, NH, PA, NV…

mlindroo on October 12, 2012 at 3:50 AM

22044 on October 11, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Unless he/she was banned Trueking coined that phrase and I am sure he will be back again when the GOP fouls up to gloat and say I told you so.

chemman on October 11, 2012 at 7:59 PM

TrueKing posted it not so long ago. Maybe after the roberts decision(?). I think Dire S. added the e “GOPe” and “For the TruCons” is definitely a DS invention.

BoxHead1 on October 11, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Yes, it was I that created that phrase…but this year it is mostly on hold until the Marxist is removed from office…

True_King on October 12, 2012 at 9:10 AM

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