Bounce continues in new swing-state polling

posted at 9:21 am on October 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Plenty of new swing-state polling this morning, and almost all of it looks bad for Barack Obama.  Business Insider looks at NBC/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling and concludes, “President Barack Obama has lost his advantage across the electoral map.”  Let’s start with the NBC take on their swing-state polling:

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

There is, however, a big caveat on those numbers from Ohio.  NBC reports it in the very next paragraph:

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats.  . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

In the 2010 midterms, Ohio had an R+1 turnout model, with a D/R/I of 36/37/28.  This sample is ridiculously tilted toward Democrats.  Even so, Obama lost two points since their last iteration, and only leads by six in a poll with an eleven-point advantage for Democrats.

But how interesting is it that NBC felt compelled to report that D+11 sample?  Looks like the media has figured out that news consumers have become more savvy to sample issues.

CBS reports on Romney’s rise in their own polling:

On the heels of last week’s presidential debate, Mitt Romney has emerged with a one-point edge over President Obama in Colorado and has cut the president’s lead in half in Wisconsin, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll.

In Wisconsin, where Mr. Obama led Romney by six percent last month, the president now holds just a three-point advantage, with 50 percent to Romney’s 47 percent support. Last month, the president led Romney 51 to 45 percent.

In Colorado, the two remain locked in a dead heat, with Romney leading Mr. Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Last month, also within that margin, Mr. Obama had the one-point edge, with 48 percent to Romney’s 47 percent.

They also find that the more people pay attention to the presidential race, the more they like Mitt Romney:

Romney made gains among voters who are paying a lot of attention to the presidential campaign. Among these voters, Romney leads in Colorado by 53 percent to 44 percent, and in Wisconsin he leads by a smaller margin (51 percent to 47 percent). When measuring voters who have been paying close attention, the race becomes even in Virginia, 49 percent to 49 percent.

Given that even the low-information voters will start paying more attention the last three weeks, that’s a bad trend for the incumbent.  It means that Romney is already starting to win the late deciders, a trend that will likely accelerate as Election Day approaches.


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I find it odd that NBC would readily admit they increased the D sample. I know the meme is to keep Obama in front but doesn’t that begin to work against him?

Tater Salad on October 11, 2012 at 10:03 AM

oldbearak on October 11, 2012 at 10:01 AM

thanks for that. I wonder if it will be a factor this year???

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Completely delusional.

ShadowsPawn on October 11, 2012 at 10:00 AM

No, 100% concern troll. If you need a break just head over to a thread like the Libya cover-up. The trolls stay away from these topics like vampires avoid garlic.

Happy Nomad on October 11, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Aren’t you a bit conservative in those numbers? :)…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

…each gets one assigned number…I’m trying to not help the hoarders who try to get 40 or 50 by themselves!

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Chuck Toad kept using the phrase “back where we started” when describing the race, Mitt has never been ahead until now.

Tater Salad on October 11, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Yep, and it’s good for is. i thonk Camille Paglia, whom I adore, started a trend there for the non extreme-left Obama slobbering traditional Dems :)…
jimver on October 11, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Yep. I have nothing but the utmost respect for principled liberals who vote Green Party. True liberals wouldn’t be caught dead voting for Obama. :-)

bluegill on October 11, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Question for you – if you are a self professed “conservative” – why is it that you only show up to talk about polls when they are Obama centric?

Hmmmm

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Perhaps this will answer your question gg.

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Flora Duh on October 11, 2012 at 9:59 AM

More damaging evidence can be found. When accused of supporting “his guy” in reference to Obama… Poll Troll said nothing to challenge the accusation.

Yet again, poll troll is trolling polls. There is something so pathetic about it obsessing over all these polls, making predictions that a poll will shift well within the margin of error, and then heralding itself as some kind of expert in polling analysis.

You do have to give it some credit though, it has been a while since Hot Air has spawned a new classification of troll.

ShadowsPawn on October 11, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

…you know what Prof?…I think you’ve been whacking the wrong thing…you need to start beating off your brain!

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:07 AM

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

There is, however, a big caveat on those numbers from Ohio. NBC reports it in the very next paragraph:

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

In the 2010 midterms, Ohio had an R+1 turnout model, with a D/R/I of 36/37/28. This sample is ridiculously tilted toward Democrats. Even so, Obama lost two points since their last iteration, and only leads by six in a poll with an eleven-point advantage for Democrats.

and here we have a clown show…..

Big Bird bounce that did the trick(might explain why Obama wouldn’t take down the ads…they were working).

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Dude…

even N friggin B and C admitted it’s an absurdly stupid ad, with no basis in reality..

and you have your panties soaked over it..

You really enjoy being a slave don’t you?.. can’t get enough of Obama lying to you, getting our people killed through sheer incompetence..

all that is just a bump in your road..

because you are a hero worshiper.. and facts can’t dent that armor..

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:08 AM

“If it’s not the jobs report bounce or the Big Bird bounce, something caused Romney to tank during what is usually his strongest time (mid-week) in Rasmussen.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Big Bird Bounce? Are you kidding me?

You are defending government subsidies to 1% teatsuckers, who have admitted that they do not need borrowed money from China?”

Nope, not defending a single Obama policy. Never have and never will.

And it had to be Big Bird or the jobs numbers, because Romney had a terrible polling day on Wed, which is usually when a Republican does best on Ras.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM

I looked and listened to CHUCK TODD.

in ohio poll

D+11 dems. does anyone here think O is not getting at least 80 percent of dems.

O getting 62 percent of those already voting. OF COURSE THIS POLL IS SKEWED DEM BIG TIME

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM

gumby rassmussen shill. i love it

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 10:10 AM

HumpBot Salvation on October 11, 2012 at 9:49 AM

…dumb fluke #57

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Question for you – if you are a self professed “conservative” – why is it that you only show up to talk about polls when they are Obama centric?

Hmmmm

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

If GNP is a “conservative,” then I’m a 6’7″, 350# linebacker for the Giants.

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 10:12 AM

…dumb fluke #57

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:10 AM

dang, I thought you missed me.

HumpBot Salvation on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

“O getting 62 percent of those already voting. OF COURSE THIS POLL IS SKEWED DEM BIG TIME

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM”

The early voting number is huge for Obama. We kept hearing how much better the GOP was doing in early voting/absentees in OH, and it was all a lie.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

…you know what Prof?…I think you’ve been whacking the wrong thing…you need to start beating off your brain!

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:07 AM

You know my friend.. November 6th, late evening is going to be the most fun I’ve had in years.. When Mitt is done curbstomping these prog hacks.. they rage should be epic, and worth taping for future amusement.

POPCORN for everybody…

I could sympathize with their bent butthurt feelings, if they weren’t such complete pricks..

offer words of comfort..

but.. nah.. let them marinate in their fever swamps.. they’ll have earned it all

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Big Bird Bounce? Are you kidding me?

Absolute delignt :) I stopped reading at that, coz I was busy picking myself up from the floor, laughter has that effect on me sometimes :)…the surreal didn’t get Matt Lauer memo who was basically transmitting the Obama camoaign, via Gibbs a strong, almost Reaganesque message :) ‘Mr Obama, ‘tear that ad, down’ :)

People do not vote the jobs number. They vote their personal experience. If they see people getting jobs, then they believe the economy is improving.

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 10:01 AM

..that’s correct. voters are real people, well for most part (with a few dead exceptions :) and not rombots who are sort of programmed to react positively and go vote obama when they read that unemployment went down 0.3 % after monumental and unpreceddnted skewing and massaging of the numbers …

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Jeez you’re dumb. I thought you said the jobs were going to be an “atomic bomb” on the Romney campaign. How is it that he’s ahead? Maybe you’re a liar..

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Deligjt that is :) I want an intelligent obamaphone!!!

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:14 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Lol obot is scared.

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Nope, not defending a single Obama policy. Never have and never will.

And it had to be Big Bird or the jobs numbers, because Romney had a terrible polling day on Wed, which is usually when a Republican does best on Ras.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Oh, puuuhhhhlease.

(I’m still offering $$$ for someone who can design an **eyeroll** font so that my words can look like this woman’s face on the screen – I LOVE her!)

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Oh, noo, again…DELIGHT…there, got it right now…on my way to pick my obamaphone…any idea where from and how do you qualify?? :)..

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Just so you know, I reserve dumb fluke #68. I have it on good authority that it is better than dumb fluke #69.

It is hard to not to respond to such an ignorant nutball. But you gave me a goal.

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

…#68 it is and you don’t even have to humour the POS…6 9 ..will probably go to another troll

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:16 AM

On Rassmussen, since El-Trollo is beating his drum again. Today Ras’s sample was D+5, last week they were using a D+3 sample. At D+3, Romney would be ahead 2-3 points. No word as to why Rasmussen suddenly went D+5.

Also, while we’re at it. Very recently gallop changed their methodology. Basically, they increased the size of the non-white vote as a portion of their polls. Before this change, Non-Whites made up 26% of their polling, afterward they made up 30%. For context, in 2004 Non-Whites accounted for 24% of the vote.

This change in methodology coincides almost perfectly with Obama’s rise in approval on Gallop.

As for this weeks unemployment, a large state failed to submit numbers, so this weeks numbers are incomplete.

WolvenOne on October 11, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I bet is that it’s getalife.

hawkdriver on October 11, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I agree Chief I and refuse to play with it.

Rio Linda Refugee on October 11, 2012 at 9:54 AM

It could be my favorite troll, ddrintn. I notice that it has not been posting lately under that name.

Basilsbest on October 11, 2012 at 10:18 AM

:)

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on October 11, 2012 at 10:18 AM

The early voting number is huge for Obama. We kept hearing how much better the GOP was doing in early voting/absentees in OH, and it was all a lie.

gumby gumby gumby. I thought you were the expert.

Romneys campaign is focusing on getting people who would vote for him but who would not likely go and bother to vote to vote for him absentee or early vote.

Obama concentrates on people who would go and vote for him anyway.

try again

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Oh, puuuhhhhlease.

(I’m still offering $$$ for someone who can design an **eyeroll** font so that my words can look like this woman’s face on the screen – I LOVE her!)

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Omg, ROFLMAO, alas, again…that look on that woman’s face is priceless.

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:19 AM

“The early voting number is huge for Obama. We kept hearing how much better the GOP was doing in early voting/absentees in OH, and it was all a lie.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Atomic Bomb! Too funny…

You do realize that nobody takes you seriously, right?

blink on October 11, 2012 at 10:14 AM”

I could care less if you take me seriously or not.

Ignore the gigantic early voting advantage for Obama. Remember that McCain acutally won the election day total in OH, but was obliterated in early voting…the exact same thing is going on this year. The Romney campaign doesn’t understand that calling and mailing is not the same as physically getting your voters to the polls, which Obama has been doing. Just the other day, they took busloads of high school students to register and vote on the same day. The Romney campaign could be doing that, but choose not to. They would rather robocall and have people get annoyed and hang up, but they can brag about the number of people called.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:21 AM

dang, I thought you missed me.

HumpBot Salvation on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

…oh no…it is getting hard now to remember if someone has a number already for the genital wart drawing…sorta like trying to figure out if some people were involved in a terrorist attack or a peaceful protest that got out of hand

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:21 AM

The early voting number is huge for Obama. We kept hearing how much better the GOP was doing in early voting/absentees in OH, and it was all a lie.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

um no… unless you now admit the MSM lied to you.. odd.. since you so lovingly quote them when the numbers favor Obama..

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:21 AM

On Rassmussen, since El-Trollo is beating his drum again. Today Ras’s sample was D+5, last week they were using a D+3 sample. At D+3, Romney would be ahead 2-3 points. No word as to why Rasmussen suddenly went D+5.
Also, while we’re at it. Very recently gallop changed their methodology. Basically, they increased the size of the non-white vote as a portion of their polls. Before this change, Non-Whites made up 26% of their polling, afterward they made up 30%. For context, in 2004 Non-Whites accounted for 24% of the vote.
This change in methodology coincides almost perfectly with Obama’s rise in approval on Gallop.
As for this weeks unemployment, a large state failed to submit numbers, so this weeks numbers are incomplete.
WolvenOne on October 11, 2012 at 10:16 AM

All that despite Rasmussen showing Republicans have at least a 2% lead in party identification (a historic high). Also, today he has swing state polling at Romney +1.

Your move, Gumby.

Lord of the Wings on October 11, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Bounce SURGE TECTONIC PLATE SHIFT continues in new swing-state polling

..fifEd

The War Planner on October 11, 2012 at 10:23 AM

“The early voting number is huge for Obama. We kept hearing how much better the GOP was doing in early voting/absentees in OH, and it was all a lie.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

um no… unless you now admit the MSM lied to you.. odd.. since you so lovingly quote them when the numbers favor Obama..

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:21 AM”

Obama is winning around 65% of the early voters, according to that poll. Ignore that fact at your own peril. The Romney campaign is getting outworked in OH, and I don’t care how well he does on election day itself, it won’t overcome that kind of early voting/absentee advantage.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

…I’m hearing that loud rhythmic slapping coming up from some basement again!

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

The networks, leftist pundits, and trolls can not comprehend the magnitude of the debate disaster; Obama is not well-positioned to play catch up; and he is absolutely behind the challenger now.

That said, we have miles and miles and days to go. Neither candidate has this race sewn up.

Defeating ANY incumbent president — particularly one coddled and babied by the MSM – is a difficult and expensive challenge.

matthew8787 on October 11, 2012 at 10:27 AM

The Romney campaign is getting outworked in OH, and I don’t care how well he does on election day itself, it won’t overcome that kind of early voting/absentee advantage.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Absolutely false. The only state where the vaunted Obama machine is winning the early battle is Iowa.

The GOP is outperforming in Ohio, NC and FL.

matthew8787 on October 11, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Absolutely false.

matthew8787 on October 11, 2012 at 10:28 AM

gumbygotpoked is so full of crap that if he said the sun rose in the east I would have to double check.

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Ignore the gigantic early voting advantage for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Look, the dog has a new bone. First it was just ALL polls favor Obama, next it was the Atomic Bomb! Now its early voting and Big Bird!

Hilarious.

ShadowsPawn on October 11, 2012 at 10:33 AM

…I’m hearing that loud rhythmic slapping coming up from some basement again!

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Ewww, visually crippling :(….need mental bleach or some eye candy to wipe that image out!! And no, by eye candy I don’t mean you know who…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Also, today he has swing state polling at Romney +1.

Your move, Gumby.

Lord of the Wings on October 11, 2012 at 10:22 AM

If it were reversed—and Rasmussen had Obama up 1 in the swing state poll and Romney up 1 in the 3-day tracking—you know Gumby would be climaxing over the swing state number and dismissing the 3-day tracking as insignificant.

And, if what WolvenOne said is true, that Rasmussen’s tracking poll had a D+5 sample, then Mitt is really up in that poll, too. There is no way in holy He!! that the electorate is going to be D+5 this time around.

Right Mover on October 11, 2012 at 10:34 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

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wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 10:34 AM

El Trollo gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Trolling fail.

The “OFFICIAL,” numbers, detailing ballot requests in states like Ohio, clearly show Republicans making HUGE strides verses 2008. Democrats have marginally outpaced Republicans this year, in some states, but its a very marginal advantage verses the early voting tsunami Democrats had in 2008.

As for the poll you’re citing. Only about 130 of their total respondents were early voters, and it was a wildly off balance sample to start with. In other words, that poll took a statistically insignificant number and trumpeted it garishly.

In other words, taking that number and asserting it as reality is wishcasting at best. The concrete numbers simply do not back it up.

WolvenOne on October 11, 2012 at 10:35 AM

A great story to start the day with!

ConservativeLA on October 11, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Your act is tired, Greg. Obama is done on 11/06/12.

fortcoins on October 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Dangit! I was saving that so I could be dumb fluke #68.

Spoil my fun will you…

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Look, the dog has a new bone. First it was just ALL polls favor Obama, next it was the Atomic Bomb! Now its early voting and Big Bird!

Hilarious.

ShadowsPawn on October 11, 2012 at 10:33 AM

To paraphrase Piiers Morgan, he’s flogging a ‘new’ dead horse every time he comes here :)…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:37 AM

“The Romney campaign is getting outworked in OH, and I don’t care how well he does on election day itself, it won’t overcome that kind of early voting/absentee advantage.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Absolutely false. The only state where the vaunted Obama machine is winning the early battle is Iowa.

The GOP is outperforming in Ohio, NC and FL.

matthew8787 on October 11, 2012 at 10:28 AM”

Well, that new OH poll showing Obama cleaning up among early voters to the tune of over 60% disagrees with you.

Same lousy GOP GOTV, different year…

Get the people to the polls. Forget the calls. Forget the mailers.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:37 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:25 AM

gumby,gumby,gumby. my point in the early voters in poll-they are democrats-skewing the poll.

a disspropotionate amount of DEMOCRATS in poll.

get that in your head.

gumby-his brain is gum

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 10:37 AM

“As for the poll you’re citing. Only about 130 of their total respondents were early voters, and it was a wildly off balance sample to start with. In other words, that poll took a statistically insignificant number and trumpeted it garishly.”

Oh, the “bad sample” excuse being used…

The Obama campaign is getting their voters to the polls. The Romney campaign refuses to do that. They believe an annoying phone call counts as “getting out the vote.”

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:39 AM

I even played a little bit for fun. Leaving FL, OH, NV and NH as the only toss ups left – and even giving Obama Iowa, which I don’t think he will win I tried to take the latest poll on the rest of the tossups. That give Obama some advantage of course. I get to 253 – 228 Obama. If Iowa flips as I suggested, Romney doesn’t need Ohio. He will win in Florida and Nevada. Does that make lil ole New Hampshire the swing?

Interesting thought.

Zomcon JEM on October 11, 2012 at 10:39 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Keep telling yourself that, Obama bot. No one believes anything you say.

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 10:40 AM

The early voting number is huge for Obama. We kept hearing how much better the GOP was doing in early voting/absentees in OH, and it was all a lie.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Want to know how many of those votes are gathered for Obama?

I have a brother in a group home, MRDD… he has the mental age of 4.. he’s a big bumbling puppy, and he voted early ballot for Obama in 08.

I only found out after,.. but a nice “activist” from ACORN showed up with a stack of ballots for the handicapped to fill out.. which was a follow up to having registered them to vote without the group home informing the families, that democrat hacktivists were mining the mentally retarded for votes..

I gave explicit instructions this year, that NO ONE was to help my brother vote, unless they enjoy a lawsuit and the accusations of enabling voter fraud..

My brother told me with out any hesitation how the nice man helped him vote,… (he can’t read or write),.. Joe has never been aware of politics, he’s a damned child, eager to please the person in front of him, like a puppy.. and again, I discover, against my explicit instructions, they have again, been in contact with Joe.. all though no ballot has been filled out yet..

These frigging vote thieving scumbag exploit the handicapped dirtbags.. are trying again..

Joe was never registered, because he can’t even read a damnned ballot.. but a “nice man” from the democrat party will fill it out for him..

The family never helped Joe vote, because it merely gives the person helping him a second vote.. unethical if not illegal.. but the Democrat party has no such ethical issue..

They’ll st6eal his vote..

Yeah douchbag.. this is where so many random votes for Obama come from..

so excuse me, if I express a desire that every Ohio democrat activist rot in Hell.. I hate you people with all the contempt I usually reserve for communists, and Party Nazi’s.. you are exactly the same morally.. which is to say.. you have no morals at all..

and again, I have to check everyday, to make sure that the democrat party doesn’t work against the family and sneak back in the group home..

are you PROUD of that smuck?

proud that your party is the same a stealing from a child?.. he’s 50 and plays with LEGO’s.. so tell me he NEEDS to vote?

I’d love to have that conversation with one of you..

face

to

face..

But none so far has the guts to talk with a cripple, about their stealing his mentally handicapped brother’s vote.

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Of course is Obama loses WI it doesn’t matter, or PA for that matter.

Zomcon JEM on October 11, 2012 at 10:41 AM

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:40 AM

This

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Ignore the gigantic early voting advantage for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Right Mover on October 11, 2012 at 10:44 AM

That Rasmussen Consumer Index that gumby was humping last week? Back to pre-job report.

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 10:44 AM

“The early voting number is huge for Obama. We kept hearing how much better the GOP was doing in early voting/absentees in OH, and it was all a lie.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Want to know how many of those votes are gathered for Obama?”

And the Romney campaign will lose because they won’t play the game to win. All the passionate outrage won’t change that fact.

They could easily bus high school students to register and vote on the same day (as Obama campaign did) if they wanted to. They think a flier in the mail is just as good. When they get their a** handed to them, they’ll know differently.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:44 AM

The only “early voters” I’ve seen are the ones on O’ Keefe’s latest OFA videos showing your side shockingly helping Obamabots voting twice.

No matter – Mitt wins handily by a fraud-proof margin (I’ll say 53%) and 300+ EV. If I’m wrong, I’ll leave this site. If I’m right, you trolls disappear. How ’bout it gumby, libfree and the rest – you in?

fortcoins on October 11, 2012 at 10:45 AM

The Obama campaign is getting their voters to the polls. The Romney campaign refuses to do that. They believe an annoying phone call counts as “getting out the vote.”

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:39 AM

a lie… the Romney people are out and on the ground..

You’re spreading disinformation, as usual.. I live here, you do not.. so take your emailed talking points, and roll em up and smoke em..

I already posted on HOW you get your people out to vote..

go to Hell.

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:45 AM

“This

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:42 AM”

Sorry jimver, the polling numbers are telling a very different story.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

There is no way in holy He!! that the electorate is going to be D+5 this time around.

Right Mover on October 11, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Correct, and here’s why.

D+5, is the ACTUAL turnout Obama got in 2008, at the apex of the Hope-n-Change insanity. People keep saying D+7, but that number is a little misleading, the evidence is that 2-3% of disgruntled Republicans identified themselves as Independents to exit pollsters in 2008. This isn’t all that uncommon when one candidate is losing badly, people feel embarrassed to admit they’re a member of the same party and lie, even if their voting habits didn’t change one bit.

Take those 2-3% and put them back in the GOP column, and you’re suddenly at D4-5%.

Ah but wait, there’s more!!

In 2008, the white vote was numerically down verses 2004. In fact it was a fairly dramatic drop, more dramatic than could possibly be accounted for by things like the Death Rate or anything like that. In other words, 2% or so of the white vote stayed home in 2008. Assuming they come out this time, that’d add another point or so to the GOP turnout.

All of this is before any party affiliation switches that have been going on in the past four years, and the official numbers on those benefit the Republican party across the board.

In other words, anything more than D+3 nationally is insane. It’s simply not going to happen.

WolvenOne on October 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Hi Greg. Did Ace ban you yet?

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Yeah. Obama’s losing. Sorry Greg.

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

From the Daily Caller “Ohio’s early absentee ballot requests and cleaned-up voter rolls point to Romney blowout”:

With a month to go in this election, the one real performance indicator we have for Ohio — early absentee ballot requests

Champaign County: Was +3% GOP, now +23% GOP – 20-point shift
Columbiana County: Was +9% DEM, now +9% GOP – 18-point shift
Crawford County: Was +3% DEM, now +12% GOP – 15-point shift
Cuyahoga County: Was +36% DEM, now +30% DEM – 6-point shift
Erie County: Was +24% DEM, now +7% DEM – 17-point shift
Franklin County: Was +5% DEM, now +5% GOP – 10-point shift
Greene County: Was +4% DEM, now +19% GOP – 23-point shift
Harrison County: Was +22% DEM, now +5% DEM – 17-point shift
Hamilton County: Was +7% GOP, now +13% GOP – 6-point shift
Licking County: Was TIED, now +16% GOP – 16-point shift
Montgomery County: Was +29% DEM, now +5% DEM – 24-point shift
Muskingum County: Was +1% DEM, now +16% GOP – 17-point shift
Pickaway County: Was +12% DEM, now +15% GOP – 27-point shift
Seneca County: Was +1% DEM, now +13% GOP – 14-point shift
Summit County: Was +33% DEM, now +6 DEM – 27-point shift
Wood County: Was +10% DEM, now +1% GOP – 11-point shift

LANDSLIDE is a coming

WV. Paul on October 11, 2012 at 10:47 AM

In Wisconsin, where Mr. Obama led Romney by six percent last month, the president now holds just a three-point advantage, with 50 percent to Romney’s 47 percent support. Last month, the president led Romney 51 to 45 percent.

In Colorado, the two remain locked in a dead heat, with Romney leading Mr. Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Last month, also within that margin, Mr. Obama had the one-point edge, with 48 percent to Romney’s 47 percent.

So, this is a quibble, but why is Obama “Mr. Obama” and Romney is simply “Romney” throughout this piece? Weird…

swenocha on October 11, 2012 at 10:49 AM

The early voting number is huge for Obama. We kept hearing how much better the GOP was doing in early voting/absentees in OH, and it was all a lie.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Cite please

talking_mouse on October 11, 2012 at 10:50 AM

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Dang, I have a mother-in-law who is in hospice. The offer was made for my father-in-law to fill out an absentee ballot for her and he refused. He could have voted for her but declined over the sanctity of the ballot.

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Two things:

1. Can someone link to the evidence which says 62% of early voters are supporting Obama…because that’s devastating for Romney.

2. I have to admit. I was fooled. I genuinely thought that gumby was a conservative who was just doing some sober poll analysis. But that dude is obviously a liberal in disguise. No wonder you all believe in the Axelturf conspiracy with posters like him/her. Crazy.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Jay Cost, on how Gallup caved to Holder’s threats…

Since about the beginning of President Obama’s tenure, the Gallup poll has generally been one of the least positive polls for the Democratic party. This has prompted outrage and pressure from the left–even from presidential advisor David Axelrod.

-snip-

President Obama enjoyed a bounce in his Gallup job approval number after the Democratic National Convention, as was to be expected, but there was a twist: it did not disappear. And while Gallup on average had found Obama’s job approval around 47 percent with adults through most of 2012, for the last five weeks it has been regularly above 50 percent. Yesterday, it stood at 53 percent, a number we have not really seen since 2009.

-snip-

So, from the looks of it, the left got what it wanted: Gallup altered its methodology with a month to go until Election Day. And the result – at least on the job approval question – is a shift in Obama’s favor.

-snip-

We absolutely, positively must remember polling in 2012 is politicized as never before, and it is incumbent upon the consumers of political polls not to accept the data naïvely, but to perform due diligence to see what goes into the product.

Translated: “Nice little polling outfit you have there. Be a shame if something happened to it!”

Del Dolemonte on October 11, 2012 at 10:54 AM

The early voting number is huge for Obama. We kept hearing how much better the GOP was doing in early voting/absentees in OH, and it was all a lie.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:13 AM

As usual – YOU LIE!

Early voting shows Republican bounce in battleground states

Early voting samples in North Carolina and Florida favor Republicans, in a reversal from 2008, while Ohio early voting samples are close.

[snip]

In the hotly contested battleground state of Ohio, Democrats have a modest edge over Republicans among people who have requested absentee ballots.

Flora Duh on October 11, 2012 at 10:56 AM

This.

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2012/10/10/cbs-5-poll-romney-gains-8-points-on-faltering-obama-in-california/

T.S.S. on October 11, 2012 at 10:50 AM

A drop in the ocean in this moocher-plagued state, but that 8% pick for Romney makes me ecstatic neverthelesss. Who knows, that trend tha you see in that poll coupled with high gas prices that might keep the moochas from the polls on election day, and voila, the unthinkable happens :)…one Cali resident can only hope :)…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:57 AM

To answer libfreeordie about early voting in Ohio. The same Daily Caller article I stated above has this.

“Dr. Larry Schweikart, a professor at the University of Dayton and a New York Times bestselling author, tells AMA, “So far, although it is early, the overall across-the-board direction of every single county in Ohio seems to be not just challenging the pollsters’ template that Obama is widening his lead but is obliterating it. And, although it is early, we will soon be at a point where — assuming Republicans vote for Romney — the Dems will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio’s voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big.”

WV. Paul on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

From NBC’s Ohio poll writeup…

“One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.”

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/10/14352371-nbcwsjmarist-poll-romney-gains-in-key-swing-states?lite

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

In 2008, the white vote was numerically down verses 2004. In fact it was a fairly dramatic drop, more dramatic than could possibly be accounted for by things like the Death Rate or anything like that. In other words, 2% or so of the white vote stayed home in 2008. Assuming they come out this time, that’d add another point or so to the GOP turnout.

This is where election day is going to be very sad for Republicans. The dip in white voter percentage from 2004 to 2008 was not unprecedented. In fact it continued a trendline in Presidential elections going 30 years. With each Presidential contest, white voters represent a smaller and smaller percentage of the electorate. This is precisely why the GOP has been pursuing racialized voter suppression, they are concerned about the destiny of demographics in Presidential contests. Luckily most of those efforts have been shut down in the swing states that matter.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:40 AM

This

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Thank you… confirms what I’m hearing on the ground from anecdotes.. but it confirms G n P is an idiot.

I shouldn’t hate anyone.. but they exploited my brother.. he 4 or 5 in his mind.. plays with toys.. as gentle and loving as a puppy…

and they USED him..

so I hate.. quite an accomplishment,.. I made it this far without hating anyone, till their party hacks did this to my family.

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

So then there’s no proof, only a factor that “may” be the cause. Thanks Greg!

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 11:00 AM

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Blah blah blah. Only one crying will be Obamafans like you.

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Same lousy GOP GOTV, different year…

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Yeah, 2010 was sooooooooooooooooooooooo horrible.

She says “Hi!”

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 11:02 AM

it was the Big Bird bounce that did the trick(might explain why Obama wouldn’t take down the ads…they were working).

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

“Big Bird bounce? What the sandra fluke? We’re in the gawddamn twilight zone here…

Alberta_Patriot on October 11, 2012 at 11:02 AM

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Yeah, and minority turnout is going to be even higher than it was for Obama in 2008!

She says “Hi!” to you, too.

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 11:04 AM

So what happened to Rasmussen today?

sandee on October 11, 2012 at 11:05 AM

And the Romney campaign will lose because they won’t play the game to win. All the passionate outrage won’t change that fact.

They could easily bus high school students to register and vote on the same day (as Obama campaign did) if they wanted to. They think a flier in the mail is just as good. When they get their a** handed to them, they’ll know differently.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:44 AM

so you are proud of it…

and the sanctity of the ballot means nothing.. to you, it’s all in how creatively they game and defraud the system..

Foxtrot

Yankee..

sideways

and

dry.

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 11:06 AM

This is precisely why the GOP has been pursuing racialized voter suppression, they are concerned about the destiny of demographics in Presidential contests. Luckily most of those efforts have been shut down in the swing states that matter.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Is this just something you’re making up, or do you have credible, multi-sourced cites that they are doing this?

Of course you don’t…

-2

Del Dolemonte on October 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

University of Dayton Professor Larry Schweikart told American Majority Action President Ned Ryun that the GOP gains favor Romney. “Although it is early, we will soon be at a point where–assuming Republicans vote for Romney–the Democrats will have to overwhelmingly win all the remaining early voting just to be even on November 6. But, given Ohio’s voting history, if the numbers are even close after early voting, Obama will lose, and possibly lose big.”

Seems as if Obama is in a little bit of trouble – the absentee ballot requests gap has shrunk by nine points for the dems.

This would suggest that Ohio is gone for the One.

Zomcon JEM on October 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Who is idisva? Google can tell a lot.

I don’t want to get in trouble for revealing identities, which I won’t do. After all, idisva is another anonymous screen name. But I say that some of you would do well to google idisva, particularly in light of certain comments by a particular commenter in this thread.

bluegill on October 11, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Sorry – Seems… Onewas my point – should have struck after lose big.

Zomcon JEM on October 11, 2012 at 11:10 AM

I find it odd that NBC would readily admit they increased the D sample. I know the meme is to keep Obama in front but doesn’t that begin to work against him?

Tater Salad on October 11, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Chuck Toad kept using the phrase “back where we started” when describing the race, Mitt has never been ahead until now.

Tater Salad on October 11, 2012 at 10:04 AM

I wonder if that isn’t the whole mindset of the MSM. The MSM meme is that Obama is going to win in a very tight race and that the poll numbers will bear out this meme. So they just keep adjusting the democrat sample to make that meme continue. In their minds, they aren’t manipulating things so much as making reality conform to their worldview.

AZfederalist on October 11, 2012 at 11:10 AM

They would rather robocall and have people get annoyed and hang up, but they can brag about the number of people called.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Debate builds GOP enthusiasm, ground game

October 9, 2012 05:03 AM EDT

After Wednesday’s presidential debate, most Americans agreed that Gov. Mitt Romney emerged victorious, thanks to the strength of his argument and the clarity of his vision and plan. Gov. Romney’s victory has produced movement in the polls. A Pew Research Center survey released Monday shows Gov. Romney in the lead 49-45, a significant change from last month when Pew showed the president ahead 51-43. Other polls show a similar trend, but in the past few days, the post-debate Republican momentum has been especially obvious on the ground.

Supporters of the Romney-Ryan ticket are more enthusiastic than ever and are putting that enthusiasm to work. Since the debate, our Victory Centers across the battleground states have reported a 63 percent increase in activity. Our offices have been flooded by newcomers looking for information on how to help in these final, critical days.

Before our Nevada offices had unlocked their doors on Thursday, eager supporters were waiting to get Romney-Ryan yards signs and volunteer for shifts. In Ohio alone, 1,500 new volunteers signed up in the 24 hours following the debate. Our Orlando office has reported overflow crowds since Wednesday, helping the state of Florida make 1 million voters contacts in a single week — a first during this campaign.

Nationwide, volunteers made 5 million voter contacts last week. Half of those were made on a single day during our Super Saturday volunteer mobilization effort, in which 30,000 volunteers participated.

All told, we have made 35 million volunteer voter contacts since the spring. Nearly 98,000 volunteers have made calls and knocked on doors. Thanks to their work, we have made four times more phone calls than at the same point in 2008. Volunteers have knocked on 13 times more doors this year than at the same point four years ago — and nearly three times as many as the entire ’08 cycle.

This Super Saturday involved more than just making contacts as we’ve started the get-out-the-vote phase of the election. Volunteers worked to encourage early voting and ensure Romney supporters who have received absentee ballots return them in time. We are determined to blunt any advantage the Obama campaign hoped to gain from early voting.

With voting under way in more than 30 states, our operation is already paying dividends. In North Carolina, 52 percent of the voters who have requested absentee ballots are registered Republicans. Only 27 percent are Democrats. In Florida, Colorado and Nevada, more Republicans than Democrats have requested absentee ballots.

Even before the debate, the GOP’s 2012 ground game was unprecedented in its size and scope. We were regularly breaking and setting new records and on track to make this cycle’s operation the new standard by which future Republican campaigns would be judged.

After the debate, we’re exceeding our goals faster than expected, buoyed by a sense of excitement and urgency among grass-roots Republicans and first-time supporters. Gov. Romney has marshaled enthusiasm, and that enthusiasm makes us even more competitive than before.

Flora Duh on October 11, 2012 at 11:11 AM

This is precisely why the GOP has been pursuing racialized voter suppression, they are concerned about the destiny of demographics in Presidential contests. Luckily most of those efforts have been shut down in the swing states that matter.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Voter ID is not voter suppression.

If it was, why did Holder’s DoJ just approve South Carolina’s Voter ID law for 2013?

sentinelrules on October 11, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Del – I assume he is referring to the purging of the cemetary voter rolls in the big Ohio cities.

Zomcon JEM on October 11, 2012 at 11:11 AM

the GOP has been pursuing racialized voter suppression, they are concerned about the destiny of demographics in Presidential contests. Luckily most of those efforts have been shut down in the swing states that matter.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

What, do you mean Voter ID Requirement? You call that voter suppression?

ShadowsPawn on October 11, 2012 at 11:12 AM

gumbygotpoked is so full of crap that if he said the sun rose in the east I would have to double check.

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 10:31 AM

…uh uh!…you’re too early!…but it’s reserved!
#68

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 11:15 AM

See Jay Cost’s article on Gallup today. Explains a lot about why that poll hasn’t moved. They put the ol’ Zogby thumb on the scale at a very opportune time for Obama.

besser tot als rot on October 11, 2012 at 11:15 AM

This is precisely why the GOP has been pursuing racialized voter suppression, they are concerned about the destiny of demographics in Presidential contests. Luckily most of those efforts have been shut down in the swing states that matter.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Translation from liberal speak to actual human English…

Attempts to prevent MASSIVE liberal voting fraud are widespread.. but the judges we have in our pocket, are righteously defending our right to vote 3 or 4 times apiece..

80% of the PUBLIC supports voter ID laws..

renaming them to cheap and sleazy democrat talking point names, doesn’t change what is happening..

Liberals cheat..

always have.. always will… because when liberals cheat and defraud the ballot box.. it’s OK.. because their hearts are in the right place, and we are evil.. we know this.. because they say so..

so why do liberals feel the congenital need to steal elections?

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 11:16 AM

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