Bounce continues in new swing-state polling

posted at 9:21 am on October 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Plenty of new swing-state polling this morning, and almost all of it looks bad for Barack Obama.  Business Insider looks at NBC/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling and concludes, “President Barack Obama has lost his advantage across the electoral map.”  Let’s start with the NBC take on their swing-state polling:

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

There is, however, a big caveat on those numbers from Ohio.  NBC reports it in the very next paragraph:

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats.  . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

In the 2010 midterms, Ohio had an R+1 turnout model, with a D/R/I of 36/37/28.  This sample is ridiculously tilted toward Democrats.  Even so, Obama lost two points since their last iteration, and only leads by six in a poll with an eleven-point advantage for Democrats.

But how interesting is it that NBC felt compelled to report that D+11 sample?  Looks like the media has figured out that news consumers have become more savvy to sample issues.

CBS reports on Romney’s rise in their own polling:

On the heels of last week’s presidential debate, Mitt Romney has emerged with a one-point edge over President Obama in Colorado and has cut the president’s lead in half in Wisconsin, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll.

In Wisconsin, where Mr. Obama led Romney by six percent last month, the president now holds just a three-point advantage, with 50 percent to Romney’s 47 percent support. Last month, the president led Romney 51 to 45 percent.

In Colorado, the two remain locked in a dead heat, with Romney leading Mr. Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Last month, also within that margin, Mr. Obama had the one-point edge, with 48 percent to Romney’s 47 percent.

They also find that the more people pay attention to the presidential race, the more they like Mitt Romney:

Romney made gains among voters who are paying a lot of attention to the presidential campaign. Among these voters, Romney leads in Colorado by 53 percent to 44 percent, and in Wisconsin he leads by a smaller margin (51 percent to 47 percent). When measuring voters who have been paying close attention, the race becomes even in Virginia, 49 percent to 49 percent.

Given that even the low-information voters will start paying more attention the last three weeks, that’s a bad trend for the incumbent.  It means that Romney is already starting to win the late deciders, a trend that will likely accelerate as Election Day approaches.


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