Bounce continues in new swing-state polling

posted at 9:21 am on October 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Plenty of new swing-state polling this morning, and almost all of it looks bad for Barack Obama.  Business Insider looks at NBC/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling and concludes, “President Barack Obama has lost his advantage across the electoral map.”  Let’s start with the NBC take on their swing-state polling:

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

There is, however, a big caveat on those numbers from Ohio.  NBC reports it in the very next paragraph:

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats.  . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

In the 2010 midterms, Ohio had an R+1 turnout model, with a D/R/I of 36/37/28.  This sample is ridiculously tilted toward Democrats.  Even so, Obama lost two points since their last iteration, and only leads by six in a poll with an eleven-point advantage for Democrats.

But how interesting is it that NBC felt compelled to report that D+11 sample?  Looks like the media has figured out that news consumers have become more savvy to sample issues.

CBS reports on Romney’s rise in their own polling:

On the heels of last week’s presidential debate, Mitt Romney has emerged with a one-point edge over President Obama in Colorado and has cut the president’s lead in half in Wisconsin, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll.

In Wisconsin, where Mr. Obama led Romney by six percent last month, the president now holds just a three-point advantage, with 50 percent to Romney’s 47 percent support. Last month, the president led Romney 51 to 45 percent.

In Colorado, the two remain locked in a dead heat, with Romney leading Mr. Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Last month, also within that margin, Mr. Obama had the one-point edge, with 48 percent to Romney’s 47 percent.

They also find that the more people pay attention to the presidential race, the more they like Mitt Romney:

Romney made gains among voters who are paying a lot of attention to the presidential campaign. Among these voters, Romney leads in Colorado by 53 percent to 44 percent, and in Wisconsin he leads by a smaller margin (51 percent to 47 percent). When measuring voters who have been paying close attention, the race becomes even in Virginia, 49 percent to 49 percent.

Given that even the low-information voters will start paying more attention the last three weeks, that’s a bad trend for the incumbent.  It means that Romney is already starting to win the late deciders, a trend that will likely accelerate as Election Day approaches.


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Too early to call it a surge instead of a bounce?

Spannerhead on October 11, 2012 at 9:23 AM

It looks like a surge to me. Hoping for a Tsunami

southernms on October 11, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Obama should have never had a chance to win in 2008. He is by far worse than Jimmy Carter was. Pretty much anyone should be able to win this election against him. In fact if the choice was Obama or a presidency free nation for 4 years, I imagine only three states would vote for Obama.

astonerii on October 11, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Snoopy dance on standby

cmsinaz on October 11, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Plenty of new swing-state polling this morning, and almost all of it looks bad for Barack Obama.

And here I was thinking that talking about rescuing Muppets for days would have worked change the momentum. Of course we also learned yesterday just how much the administration has tried to cover up what happened in Libya because it didn’t fit the campaign’s political narrative. This IMO is criminal and a fact that will not help the rat-eared coward when it comes to the foreign policy debate.

Happy Nomad on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Rasmussen Thursday. Obama 48-47. Romney pulls indies 46-45, republicans 87-8, democrats 12-86.

TOLD YA SO.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

i’m wondering how much of this has to do w/ a lot of these voters being scared of being thought of as a racist if they said the didnt want to vote for obama. now, after he showed himself to be a small inconsequential man in the debate they can oppose him and have what they feel is valid reason,

chasdal on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Now is the time for Romney to quote Obama.

If I’m elected then it means that the people support my agenda! (Which is to dismantle Obama’s for starters –I hope)

Don L on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Snoopy dance on standby

cmsinaz on October 11, 2012 at 9:26 AM

That’s not very nice. Gumbygotpoked is on suicide watch.

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Uh-oh…The fetishist with OCD just got chub…

Liam on October 11, 2012 at 9:28 AM

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

In other words, Romney’s looking good in O-I-H-O. If he picks up that state along with Virginia, this thing’s over cuz I can’t see him failing to also take at least one of the following: Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, or Nevada.

Doughboy on October 11, 2012 at 9:28 AM

LANDSLIDE a coming

WV. Paul on October 11, 2012 at 9:28 AM

VA and OH concern me. Ultimately, I think FL swings our way, and maybe CO, but unless he can peel off MI, PA, and/or WI he really needs both VA and OH.

changer1701 on October 11, 2012 at 9:28 AM

NBC Obam up +6 with +11 Dems split.

Wow NBC, Foward indeed.

Wait..what? That’s Obama’s campaign slogan too?

What are the chances.

WisRich on October 11, 2012 at 9:29 AM

It means that Romney is already starting to win the late deciders, a trend that will likely accelerate as Election Day approaches.

Red Storm Rising

The Fear of All Sums

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 9:29 AM

You know it is really nice to log on here and see nothing but smiling Romney screencaps.

:)

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Obama should have never had a chance to win in 2008. He is by far worse than Jimmy Carter was. Pretty much anyone should be able to win this election against him.

astonerii on October 11, 2012 at 9:26 AM

That’s why he wisely supported McCain’s flailing campaign, with both money and hordes of ACORN-funded cross-isle primary votes. We really need to stop the idiocy of allowing our worst enemy to choose our winners.

Archivarix on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM

“VA and OH concern me”

They should since NBC/Marist has Obama way ahead in OH and CBS/NYT has Obama way ahead in VA.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Rasmussen Thursday. Obama 48-47. Romney pulls indies 46-45, republicans 87-8, democrats 12-86.

TOLD YA SO.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Told us what? That’s a statistical tie which is essentially where Rasmussen has had it for a while now when you average the weekend and weekday results.

Doughboy on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Given that even the low-information voters will start paying more attention the last three weeks…

You give them too much credit, Ed.

What if there’s a Jersey Shore marathon, followed by WWF championships, right before Election Day?

itsnotaboutme on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM

If you only look at post debate data in OH, it was Barry 48 and Romney 46 despite the heavy Dem skew. The 6 points spread lumped data from early voters who voted prior to the first debate, and in this case overwhelmingly democrats.

bayview on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I’ve always wondered what exit polling and early returns mean for western state voting behavior like in CO, NM, NV. I vaguely recall reports suggesting that once a battleground state (in the east) gets called, it someway affects voter turnout? results? in the western states. If that’s a crock, just say so.

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Given that even the low-information voters will start paying more attention the last three weeks…

should’nt we call them “Obamaphone voters”…..?/

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

you know when you are in trouble when Joe Biden is in position to be your savior.

Oil Can on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

That’s not very nice. Gumbygotpoked is on suicide watch.

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Oh no! Then the Humpbot might put him over the edge??!!!

kcd on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Rasmussen Thursday. Obama 48-47. Romney pulls indies 46-45, republicans 87-8, democrats 12-86.

TOLD YA SO.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Question for you – if you are a self professed “conservative” – why is it that you only show up to talk about polls when they are Obama centric?

Hmmmm

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Buh bye, Barry. :-)

Punchenko on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I’ve always wondered what exit polling and early returns mean for western state voting behavior like in CO, NM, NV. I vaguely recall reports suggesting that once a battleground state (in the east) gets called, it someway affects voter turnout? results? in the western states. If that’s a crock, just say so.

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Unless all the battleground states get called for one candidate, I can’t imagine that would impact turnout in the Midwest and Left Coast all that much.

Doughboy on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

It almost has to be a landslide for Romney to actually WIN. Anything less and the D’s are very skilled at creating votes that weren’t there before, giving them the victory. Never forget what happened in Minnesota with Franken!!! The Romney victory must be nothing less than a landslide or all the dead are going to magically become registered democrats and show up in votes that mysteriously are found in car trunks and closets.

PackerFan4Life on October 11, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I think I have a solution for whole big bird thing. You don’t have to defund him, just pass a law, legally changing his name to “Muhammed, peas be upon his head”. He will be off the air within a week.

cep on October 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

prog bastion of Maine here. RINO-land of the U.S.

I work on the road and log average of 150 miles/weekly.

Have seen one obowmao/biden bumper sticker.

Caveat, only a handful of RR2012 signs/stickers but more than the liar in chief

screwauger on October 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Rasmussen Thursday. Obama 48-47. Romney pulls indies 46-45, republicans 87-8, democrats 12-86.

TOLD YA SO.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Where ya been? We thought you’re muppet full shelf collapsed on you in your mom’s basement.

msupertas on October 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

“VA and OH concern me”

They should since NBC/Marist has Obama way ahead in OH and CBS/NYT has Obama way ahead in VA.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Mr. gumby,

Check those internals on Ohio.

NBC- Ohio Obama up only +6 with D+11 split.

2010 Midterms? R+1.

You go ahead and keep thinking everything is unicorns and skittles.

WisRich on October 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Gumby – nice try. All the polling is broken. Ohio I think is going to be safely Romney – meaning the race is over if Suffolk is to be believed. Heck, if Suffolk is to be believed it is probably over anyway – I figured Romney needed 2 of VA, FL, and OH. Suffolk says he already has two of them and I think he will get all three. Obama is looking at his big four lock – NY, MA, IL, and CA. He will get most of the NE, except NH. Looks like PA will tease the GOP again. He will get the rest of the pacific coast, and probably MI and MN. That’s about it.

Zomcon JEM on October 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Snoopy dance on standby

cmsinaz on October 11, 2012 at 9:26 AM

No kidding. Every little glimmer of hope has people bringing up Glenn Reynold’s second favorite phrase, “don’t get cocky,” but speaking for myself, I’m tired of feeling tense. I’d like to feel like I could relax for once. For almost five years, ever since it was obvious that Hillary Clinton would run for the presidency, I’ve been keyed up with stress over what could happen and what has happened to my country (aggravated when when Obama was elected). I’d like to be able to let my gut out and breathe.

But with this bunch and the “Chicago Way,” it definitely ain’t over even when it’s over. Even if Romney wins this, I probably won’t be able to really relax until after tax time next year.

theotherone on October 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Buy some new batteries for the Humpbot…

PatriotRider on October 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Question for you – if you are a self professed “conservative” – why is it that you only show up to talk about polls when they are Obama centric?

Hmmmm

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I bet is that it’s getalife.

hawkdriver on October 11, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I’ve always wondered what exit polling and early returns mean for western state voting behavior like in CO, NM, NV. I vaguely recall reports suggesting that once a battleground state (in the east) gets called, it someway affects voter turnout? results? in the western states. If that’s a crock, just say so.

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 9:31 AM

In my communications classes we were taught that calling a race doesn’t happen until the last polls close in the west, that way news from the east doesn’t effect peoples’ votes as you move west across the country.

IIRC, it’s not a law, but an unwritten rule that the journalism industry follows to remain “impartial” and “unbiased”.

italianguy626 on October 11, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I bet is that it’s getalife.

hawkdriver on October 11, 2012 at 9:36 AM

It makes me laugh really.

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:37 AM

But I thought Romney tied a woman dying of cancer to his car roof, or something like that….

RBMN on October 11, 2012 at 9:38 AM

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I live in a house full of low info voters (and that’s really being nice) but there is not a one on the govt dole.

They bitch constantly about all the political ads, but couldn’t tell you the content of one of them.

When I try to educate them, all they hear is charlie browns mothers voice.

ignorance is bliss they say.

screwauger on October 11, 2012 at 9:38 AM

They should since NBC/Marist has Obama way ahead in OH and CBS/NYT has Obama way ahead in VA.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM

STFU already. I can’t for the life of me understand how pathetic your life must be for you to feel the need to infest these threads with your tired trolling for Obama. Your analysis is a joke (Walker is doomed!!111), and your purpose all too evident.

changer1701 on October 11, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Cozmo

:)

cmsinaz on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Romney will win. Even Obama worshipers like GumbyandPokey are starting to realize this. The Obama charade was never going to last forever. We have only a few more weeks left until we vote him out.

But let’s make sure it’s a knockout and not even close.

bluegill on October 11, 2012 at 9:40 AM

“If you only look at post debate data in OH, it was Barry 48 and Romney 46 despite the heavy Dem skew. The 6 points spread lumped data from early voters who voted prior to the first debate, and in this case overwhelmingly democrats.

bayview on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM”

I thought the super duper awesome Romney GOTV operation in OH was doing so well with early voting?

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Drove my kids to school this morning and saw some new campaign signs up. Not for Obama for Romney/Ryan. And folks this in New York State. I haven’t seen a thing for zero.

magicbeans on October 11, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Bless your heart. And keep it stout.

I guess you missed the part about information from an entire large state being left out.

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM

So the Ohio poll is D+11 and the 2010 turnout was R+1. Even in 2008 the turnout was not D+11 but D+8. So thinking Dem turnout will be less than 2008 but more than 2010 lets go with D+5. That makes Ohio a even tie at 46/46, with Romney moving up 2 from their poll last week.

I think Romney will win Ohio. There will, of course, be cheating on the Dem side but I honestly think Romney will have so much trending to him that his numbers will be so high that the cheating will not be able to touch that.

talking_mouse on October 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Well poll troll is here – good reason to get some work done.

Go Ryan!

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM

I see a 40 state win for Romney this Nov. Dejavu, all over again.

WV. Paul on October 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Ya gotta point theotherone

cmsinaz on October 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-11/jobless-claims-in-u-dot-s-dot-fall-to-four-year-low-as-quarter-starts

http://m.usatoday.com/article/money/1624719

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

LMAO

One state may have skewed the jobless claims number (hoping it was Illinois)

One state accounted for most of the plunge in claims, a Labor Department spokesman said as the data were issued to the press…

Unadjusted claims typically surge at the start of a quarter as people receiving benefits reapply in order for the government to recertify their applications, the Labor Department spokesman said. The year’s increase was smaller than projected, because one large [state] showed a drop rather than an increase, the spokesman said. The breakdown by state will show up in next week’s report.

It would be hilarious if that state was Illinois.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/10/11/one-state-may-have-skewed-the-jobless-claims-number-hoping-it-was-illinois/

sentinelrules on October 11, 2012 at 9:42 AM

It looks like a surge to me. Hoping for a Tsunami

southernms on October 11, 2012 at 9:25 AM

I’ll go a little further. I hope Guam flips over. (Courtesy of half-wit leftist congressman Hank Johnson)

TxAnn56 on October 11, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

No he won’t.

itsspideyman on October 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

“Rasmussen Thursday. Obama 48-47. Romney pulls indies 46-45, republicans 87-8, democrats 12-86.

TOLD YA SO.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Question for you – if you are a self professed “conservative” – why is it that you only show up to talk about polls when they are Obama centric?

Hmmmm

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM”

I made the prediction that the jobs bounce would obliterate the debate bounce and Obama would go head in Rasmussen by Tues/Wed. Well, I was called out repeatedly yesterday for being wrong, and I was only wrong by one single day. The jobs bounce did destroy the debate bounce or maybe it was the Big Bird bounce that did the trick(might explain why Obama wouldn’t take down the ads…they were working).

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

what if he does not???

runner on October 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Meanwhile weekly unemployment claims plummeted to a 4 year low. Sound familiar? The only problem is “one large state” was not included in the data. Paging Jack Welch.

Wigglesworth on October 11, 2012 at 9:44 AM

BTW, if you look at the WI polls, Obama is at or over 50% in most of the recent surveys. He won’t win it by a lot, but he’s got that state locked down.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:44 AM

“A Labor Department economist said one large state didn’t report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease”

Per WSJ

sentinelrules on October 11, 2012 at 9:44 AM

They should since NBC/Marist has Obama way ahead in OH and CBS/NYT has Obama way ahead in VA.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Grades for 2008:

Marist:

Overall score: 67%
Grade: D+
Accuracy: 62%
Consistency: 82%

CBS/NYT:

Overall score: 60%
Grade: D-
Accuracy: 62%
Consistency: 56%

NBC News (but with the WSJ):

Overall score: 76%
Grade: C
Accuracy: 77%
Consistency: 75%

Analysis: Most Accurate polls from 2008 presidential election

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 9:44 AM

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-11/jobless-claims-in-u-dot-s-dot-fall-to-four-year-low-as-quarter-starts

http://m.usatoday.com/article/money/1624719

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-11/data-massaging-continues-initial-claims-tumble-339k-lowest-2008-far-below-lowest-exp

One large state didn’t report quarterly figures? Gee, did the labor dept fudge some more unemployment numbers?

Doughboy on October 11, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I made the prediction that the jobs bounce would obliterate the debate bounce and Obama would go head in Rasmussen by Tues/Wed. Well, I was called out repeatedly yesterday for being wrong, and I was only wrong by one single day. The jobs bounce did destroy the debate bounce or maybe it was the Big Bird bounce that did the trick(might explain why Obama wouldn’t take down the ads…they were working).

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Except that the jobs report bounce is over.

According to Rasmussen, the consumer confidence numbers have collapsed.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, fell nearly five points on Thursday to 84.5.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/indexes/rasmussen_consumer_index/rasmussen_consumer_index

sentinelrules on October 11, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Ed I thought you would like this…. :)

Listen my friends
And you will see,
What King Obama
Has done to you and me.

On January twentieth
Two thousand and nine,
He took control
We started our decline.

With record unemployment
And people forlorn,
Our tax money spent
Poverty the Norm.

With free phones for some
And EBT cards too,
The lazy ones come
Freebies from me and you.

On November the sixth
Two thousand and twelve,
You must go vote
Or were going to hell.

The country deserves better
Than the King and Moochele,
America must survive
And ring the liberty bell.

John D. USN 71-77

Tilly on October 11, 2012 at 9:47 AM

“A Labor Department economist said one large state didn’t report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease”

had to be IL, they like to do that, like when report cook county after all votes were counted – when they have an idea how many they have to make up, or when the need to tamper the massive Romney bounce….

runner on October 11, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Come on Pookie, get up off the couch and cast your vote for Romney’s historic presidency. When Romney wins, he’ll be the first president ever to have defeated a black incumbent president!

Be a part of history! Cast your vote for Romney!

(Hey it worked for Obama in 2008.)

AZCoyote on October 11, 2012 at 9:49 AM

It looks like a surge to me. Hoping for a Tsunami

southernms

I just heard the NOAA will issue a tsunami warning starting at 10:31pm Eastern Time. This warning will be in effect for the following states: Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, Iowa and Colorado. People in these states will be advised to go about their normal routines but be prepared to go to designated gathering points within the next 4 weeks.

Zaggs on October 11, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I made the prediction that the jobs bounce would obliterate the debate bounce and Obama would go head in Rasmussen by Tues/Wed. Well, I was called out repeatedly yesterday for being wrong, and I was only wrong by one single day. The jobs bounce did destroy the debate bounce or maybe it was the Big Bird bounce that did the trick(might explain why Obama wouldn’t take down the ads…they were working).

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

You truly are an imbecile.

Consumer confidence spiked immediately following last week’s jobs report which showed unemployment falling to 7.8%. However, after approaching the highest levels of 2012, the bounce quickly faded. Confidence today is back to the pre-jobs report level. Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Americans now believe the economy is getting better. That’s exactly the same as before the jobs report. Fifty-three percent (53%) believe it is getting worse.

So much for your atomic bomb.

And your favorite benchmark RCP has Romney +1.5

Serious question for you gumby.

As a child did your mummy put you in the bouncy seat upside down?

HumpBot Salvation on October 11, 2012 at 9:49 AM

RCP has moved it back to a 20 point spread – and that includes Missouri and NC as toss-ups, which they aren’t. Just moving the three toss-ups to Romney via Suffolk puts Romney in the lead – 238-201. That doesn’t include Missouri – who hates Obama and ObamaCare and are still strongly considering getting rid of their D senator who should be 20 points down. Based upon my suggestion up above – and giving Obama NM – it is Romney – 301-237.

The same dymamics of the race nationally are moving in Ohio (Romney winning Independents, narrow gender gap, Catholics going GOP, etc.). I am still going to give it another polling cycle next week, but I think Ohio is Romney’s. If Biden is as bad tonight as we expect, coupled with Obama’s foreign policy disasters, I am not sure where this ends up – Romney might even pick off a MI or PA by the end.

Zomcon JEM on October 11, 2012 at 9:49 AM

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-11/jobless-claims-in-u-dot-s-dot-fall-to-four-year-low-as-quarter-starts

http://m.usatoday.com/article/money/1624719

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-11/data-massaging-continues-initial-claims-tumble-339k-lowest-2008-far-below-lowest-exp

They’ve been caught red-handed this time:

This is just getting stupid. After expectations of a rebound in initial claims from 367K last week (naturally revised higher to 369K), to 370K (with the lowest of all sellside expectations at 355K), the past week mysteriously, yet so very unsurprisingly in the aftermath of the fudged BLS unemployment number, saw claims tumble to a number that is so ridiculous not even CNBC’s Steve Liesman bothered defending it, or 339K. Ironically, not even the Labor Department is defending it: it said that “one large state didn’t report some quarterly figures.” Great, but what was reported was a headline grabbing number that is just stunning for reelection purposes. This was the lowest number since 2008. The only point to have this print? For 2-3 bulletin talking points at the Vice Presidential debate tonight.

Even MSNBC noted the fudging. The election ended at the debate and now Team Barry — in hair-on-fire desperation — is throwing out Potemkin economic news (that no one believes) and Big Bird ads.

It’s over, accept it, and embrace the idea of Mark Warner being your nominee in 2016.

Punchenko on October 11, 2012 at 9:50 AM

BTW, if you look at the WI polls, Obama is at or over 50% in most of the recent surveys. He won’t win it by a lot, but he’s got that state locked down.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:44 AM

He may win Wisconsin, but when a state has just been changed from Leans Obama to a Toss-up and has already been trending toward the GOP since 2010(including the big Walker recall win just a few months ago), it’s most certainly not locked down for the Dems. And you can never discount the presence of Paul Ryan on the ticket. If he nets Romney even a point or two thanks to Wisconsin roots, that may swing the state over the GOP column.

Doughboy on October 11, 2012 at 9:50 AM

“Except that the jobs report bounce is over.

According to Rasmussen, the consumer confidence numbers have collapsed.

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, fell nearly five points on Thursday to 84.5.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/indexes/rasmussen_consumer_index/rasmussen_consumer_index

sentinelrules on October 11, 2012 at 9:46 AM”

Maybe the bad week for the stock market?

If it’s not the jobs report bounce or the Big Bird bounce, something caused Romney to tank during what is usually his strongest time (mid-week) in Rasmussen.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Doughboy on October 11, 2012 at 9:30 AM

…dumb fluke #52

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Real Clear Politics has Texas as likely Romney. Do people really think Obama might take Texas? What is up?

Oil Can on October 11, 2012 at 9:53 AM

BHO’s campain has noticed a bounce……in Facebook ‘likes’…..

whatever floats your boat homey, whatever floats your boat.

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 9:53 AM

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

…(:->)…dumb fluke #53

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 9:53 AM

If it’s not the jobs report bounce or the Big Bird bounce, something caused Romney to tank during what is usually his strongest time (mid-week) in Rasmussen.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Tank? He went from 50% to 47% is not tanking.

The Columbus Day sample is out of the tracker tomorrow.

sentinelrules on October 11, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Democrats have forgotten what makes this country great. Legal immigrants have not. If you don’t know who Thomas Peterffy is, you should. I think he exemplifies the feelings of most Americans.

bloggless on October 11, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Real Clear Politics has Texas as likely Romney. Do people really think Obama might take Texas? What is up?

Oil Can on October 11, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Texas is firmly in Romney’s column, IMO. Ted Cruz is also on the ballot.

ted c on October 11, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I bet is that it’s getalife.

hawkdriver on October 11, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I agree Chief I and refuse to play with it.

Rio Linda Refugee on October 11, 2012 at 9:54 AM

msupertas on October 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

…dumb fluke #54

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Maybe the bad week for the stock market?

is he saying that stock market drives CC numbers????

runner on October 11, 2012 at 9:55 AM

More and more liberals are choosing to vote Green Party rather than Obama because they smell the stench of loser all over the Obama-Biden campaign. Since smart liberals know they are going to go down on Nov 6 when the Republican ticket triumphs, they are deciding to go down with their principles still in tact.

Smart liberals are voting Green Party. They know that is the only way they will feel comfortable with themselves after the fact and will be able to avoid the ridicule coming from having to admit to voting for a phony like Obama.

bluegill on October 11, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Real Clear Politics has Texas as likely Romney. Do people really think Obama might take Texas? What is up?

Oil Can on October 11, 2012 at 9:53 AM

I think Nate Silver’s still not convinced it’s gonna go Republican.

Doughboy on October 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

WisRich on October 11, 2012 at 9:35 AM

…dumb fluke #55

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

…(:->)…dumb fluke #53

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Aren’t you a bit conservative in those numbers? :)…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

…(:->)…dumb fluke #53

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Just so you know, I reserve dumb fluke #68. I have it on good authority that it is better than dumb fluke #69.

It is hard to not to respond to such an ignorant nutball. But you gave me a goal.

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

With those numbers, that is :)…French wording always comes first :)…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I My bet is that it’s getalife.

hawkdriver on October 11, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I agree Chief I and refuse to play with it.

Rio Linda Refugee on October 11, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Did I type that? Time to go to work.

hawkdriver on October 11, 2012 at 9:57 AM

IIRC, it’s not a law, but an unwritten rule that the journalism industry follows to remain “impartial” and “unbiased”.

italianguy626 on October 11, 2012 at 9:36 AM

this is cute, they threw that out long ago

Rio Linda Refugee on October 11, 2012 at 9:57 AM

changer1701 on October 11, 2012 at 9:38 AM

…dumb fluke #56

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 9:58 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I love role reversal. now YOUR depending on Rassmussen.

there is no doubt it is a close rave and Mitt is surging.

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 9:58 AM

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-11/jobless-claims-in-u-dot-s-dot-fall-to-four-year-low-as-quarter-starts

http://m.usatoday.com/article/money/1624719

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

* Not Seasonally Adjusted initial claims jumped by 26K to 327K

* Last week’s claims numbers were revised UPWARD…AGAIN.

* The labour force participation rate is the lowest in 3 decades and is 2.901% lower than it was when Obama took office

* As others have pointed out, “one large state” did not report its quarterly numbers

The administration is asking us to believe that employers are hiring at the same rate that they did in November, 1983…when the annualised GDP rate was 8.5%. As a reminder, the annualised rate in Obamaland for Q2/2012 was revised downward…AGAIN…to 1.3%. You can. The rest of us aren’t that stupid or naive. Still believe that Benghazi and Cairo were “spontaneous uprisings” caused by a “vile and despicable video”?

If the employment situation was truly improving, Ben Bernanke NEVER would have embarked on the extraordinarily dangerous QEternity a/k/a debt monetisation, which has not only be shown NOT to work here, but has been shown not to work in Japan, which just launched QE-8 as it entered its THIRD LOST DECADE. Most importantly, the shoals of QE is strewn with the wreckage of countries that tried to print its way prosperity and full employment.

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 9:59 AM

More and more liberals are choosing to vote Green Party rather than Obama because they smell the stench of loser all over the Obama-Biden campaign. Since smart liberals know they are going to go down on Nov 6 when the Republican ticket triumphs, they are deciding to go down with their principles still in tact.

Smart liberals are voting Green Party. They know that is the only way they will feel comfortable with themselves after the fact and will be able to avoid the ridicule coming from having to admit to voting for a phony like Obama.

bluegill on October 11, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Yep, and it’s good for is. i thonk Camille Paglia, whom I adore, started a trend there for the non extreme-left Obama slobbering traditional Dems :)…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Question for you – if you are a self professed “conservative” – why is it that you only show up to talk about polls when they are Obama centric?

Hmmmm

gophergirl on October 11, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Perhaps this will answer your question gg.

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Flora Duh on October 11, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Big Bird bounce that did the trick(might explain why Obama wouldn’t take down the ads…they were working).

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Completely delusional.

ShadowsPawn on October 11, 2012 at 10:00 AM

tedc @ 9:31 am

About how the election being called prior to voting ending out west and affecting voting. In 1980, Carter had already conceded before our polls closed here in AK. Many of us stood in line after that to cast our votes for RR.

oldbearak on October 11, 2012 at 10:01 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Rassmussen boy. role reversal.

gerrry-mittbot-likes polls i like-does not like polls i don’t like

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 10:01 AM

If it’s not the jobs report bounce or the Big Bird bounce, something caused Romney to tank during what is usually his strongest time (mid-week) in Rasmussen.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Big Bird Bounce? Are you kidding me?

You are defending government subsidies to 1% teatsuckers, who have admitted that they do not need borrowed money from China?

People do not vote the jobs number. They vote their personal experience. If they see people getting jobs, then they believe the economy is improving.

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 10:01 AM

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