Bounce continues in new swing-state polling

posted at 9:21 am on October 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Plenty of new swing-state polling this morning, and almost all of it looks bad for Barack Obama.  Business Insider looks at NBC/Marist and CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac polling and concludes, “President Barack Obama has lost his advantage across the electoral map.”  Let’s start with the NBC take on their swing-state polling:

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

There is, however, a big caveat on those numbers from Ohio.  NBC reports it in the very next paragraph:

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats.  . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

In the 2010 midterms, Ohio had an R+1 turnout model, with a D/R/I of 36/37/28.  This sample is ridiculously tilted toward Democrats.  Even so, Obama lost two points since their last iteration, and only leads by six in a poll with an eleven-point advantage for Democrats.

But how interesting is it that NBC felt compelled to report that D+11 sample?  Looks like the media has figured out that news consumers have become more savvy to sample issues.

CBS reports on Romney’s rise in their own polling:

On the heels of last week’s presidential debate, Mitt Romney has emerged with a one-point edge over President Obama in Colorado and has cut the president’s lead in half in Wisconsin, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll.

In Wisconsin, where Mr. Obama led Romney by six percent last month, the president now holds just a three-point advantage, with 50 percent to Romney’s 47 percent support. Last month, the president led Romney 51 to 45 percent.

In Colorado, the two remain locked in a dead heat, with Romney leading Mr. Obama 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Last month, also within that margin, Mr. Obama had the one-point edge, with 48 percent to Romney’s 47 percent.

They also find that the more people pay attention to the presidential race, the more they like Mitt Romney:

Romney made gains among voters who are paying a lot of attention to the presidential campaign. Among these voters, Romney leads in Colorado by 53 percent to 44 percent, and in Wisconsin he leads by a smaller margin (51 percent to 47 percent). When measuring voters who have been paying close attention, the race becomes even in Virginia, 49 percent to 49 percent.

Given that even the low-information voters will start paying more attention the last three weeks, that’s a bad trend for the incumbent.  It means that Romney is already starting to win the late deciders, a trend that will likely accelerate as Election Day approaches.


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fortcoins on October 11, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Last chance for you Obama geldings to get in on my little wager. Nut up or shut up.

fortcoins on October 11, 2012 at 11:17 AM

This is precisely why the GOP has been pursuing racialized voter suppression, they are concerned about the destiny of demographics in Presidential contests. Luckily most of those efforts have been shut down in the swing states that matter.

libfreeordie

So, basically what you’re saying is black people are too stupid to figure out how to get ID. Self-loathing much?

xblade on October 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM

…uh uh!…you’re too early!…but it’s reserved!
#68

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 11:15 AM

But I wasn’t responding to gumbygotpoked. I was responding to somebody else who responded to gumgygotpoked…like you did yesterday. Honest!

But, I’ll take it.

cozmo on October 11, 2012 at 11:19 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

you just proved my earlier posts. You are stupid.

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 11:19 AM

2. I have to admit. I was fooled.

libfreeordie

You ARE a fool, so no surprise there.

xblade on October 11, 2012 at 11:22 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM
you just proved my earlier posts. You are stupid.

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 11:19 AM

…its starting to plug the drains in moms basement…again!

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 11:24 AM

What you Obamabots fail to comprehend is that Obama hasn’t given voters a reason to re-elect him. What is he running on?

1. Romney is rich.

2. I’ll save Big Bird.

3. Romney kills women with cancer.

4. I’ll raise taxes on the “evil rich” even though that might close the deficit by 4.38% – 6.25%, ceterus paribus, which is unlikely.

5. Republicans hate women.

6. I’ll give you 4 more years of THIS!!!

7. Romney is rich.

8. Republicans will turn Medicare into a voucher programme even though I’m already doing that for 2 million of the poorest Medicare recipients!

9. Paul Ryan is evil.

10. “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.”

11. Romney “shoots first and aims later” (even though he was right and I lied to you for weeks)

12. Republicans are for dirty air and dirty water

13. My energy plan will cause electricity to “necessarily skyrocket” and I do want much higher gas prices as long as there is a “gradual adjustment.”

14. Republicans will “put y’all back in chains!”

15. Food stamps and unemployment insurance are the best economic stimuli!

16. Romney would fire Helicopter Ben a/k/a Osama ben Bernanke

17. Affirmative action is necessary to guard against a ‘return to good old-fashioned racism’ and “the question is not when does [affirmative action] end, but when does it begin. … When do people of color truly get the benefits to which they are entitled?”

18. Republicans would let Wall Street “run wild” wild cracking down on Sesame Street…even though my administration has prosecuted no one associated with the financial meltdown and 1,400 fewer major cases of financial fraud, malfeasance, deceptive practises, insider trading, etc., than the Bush administration did and our good buddy, Jon Corzine, is bundling a shitload of money for my campaign.

19. Climate change is the most important issue facing Americans so it will be the most important issue that I deal with in my second term.

20. Republicans want to nuke the world. I will unilaterally disarm the United States so that we can never again commit war crimes like we did in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

21. Mitt Romney is rich.

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Absolutely false. The only state where the vaunted Obama machine is winning the early battle is Iowa.

The GOP is outperforming in Ohio, NC and FL.

matthew8787 on October 11, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Iowa, Ohio, they’re next to one another, what’s the difference?

-g&ptroll

AZfederalist on October 11, 2012 at 11:25 AM

idisva has been busy this morning. Hmmm.

People use different screen names on different sites. Sometimes they also lie about their political affiliations.

bluegill on October 11, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Obama’s supporters can never articulate a coherent reason to actually vote for him. I’ve challenged them on this forum many times, and they either ignore the challenge or change the subject.

But that’s what happens when people can’t think for themselves and build their worldview around spoonfed talking points instead.

Obama’s own campaign has never articulated a single reason to vote for him. He can’t point to a single accomplishment in his first term that has helped this nation, and he doesn’t dare tell us what he really has in store for his second term, because it’s a full-out government takeover of the rest of our remaining freedoms.

And anybody who doesn’t recognize this by now is simply an imbecile.

Right Mover on October 11, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Obama will win.

libfreeordie on October 11, 2012 at 9:39 AM

…you know what Prof?…I think you’ve been whacking the wrong thing…you need to start beating off your brain!

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Yes, it’s actually scientifically proven that a lil bit of electric current to the brain boosts math abilities…I suggest some sort of a mental vibrator for libfree :)…the hand might not be as effective though….

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Question to KOOLAID2 re: the ROEs or better het ROIs (rules of ignoring that is) with poll troll extraordinaire. What do you do when he extracts your response to a different poster, then expressly singles you out and addresses you directly by name/monicker? Engage??

“This

jimver on October 1

Sorry jimver, the polling numbers are telling a very different story.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:46 AM

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 11:44 AM

22. I still believe in Hope & Change!

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 11:47 AM

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Because liberals do not stand for anything other than power, graft and control. When those are your core values, what is a lil ole theft between friends.

Zomcon JEM on October 11, 2012 at 11:49 AM

21. Mitt Romney is rich.

yes he is.

gerrym51 on October 11, 2012 at 11:50 AM

22. I still believe in Hope & Change!

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Well, he might be shocked to discover that he is the only one who still does :) Even Camille Paglia mocked whatever was left of his hope & change…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Reuters/AP has R +3

wargamer6 on October 11, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Want to know how many of those votes are gathered for Obama?

I have a brother in a group home, MRDD… he has the mental age of 4.. he’s a big bumbling puppy, and he voted early ballot for Obama in 08.

I only found out after,.. but a nice “activist” from ACORN showed up with a stack of ballots for the handicapped to fill out.. which was a follow up to having registered them to vote without the group home informing the families, that democrat hacktivists were mining the mentally retarded for votes..

mark81150 on October 11, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Same thing happened with my wife’s uncle here in Michigan

Animal60 on October 11, 2012 at 11:56 AM

I just posted the list (Got any additions?) with M2RB…Surprise!

“There comes a time when we heed a certain call
When the world must come together as one

We are the world, we are the children
We are the ones who make a brighter day
So let’s start giving
There’s a choice we’re making
We’re saving our own lives
It’s true we’ll make a better day
Just you and me

When you’re down and out, there seems no hope at all
But if you just believe there’s no way we can fall
Well…well…well
Let’s realise that a change can only come
When we stand together as one…”

How could the Hollyweird Obamabots have not done an Obama remake?

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Oh, lookie, surprise, surprise, more data massaging: turned out one large state didn’t report ‘some’ quarterly figures, shhh, we can’t say which one….yourguess is as good as mine :)..

Here

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 12:01 PM

23. Republicans don’t believe that there is a legal difference between violent rape and statutory rape when everyone knows that rape is different from “rape-rape”!

24. The future must not belong to those that defame Islam and the Prophet Mohammed, which is why my administration will sign onto a worldwide treaty that will criminalise even truthful criticism of Islam and the Prophet Mohammed and my esteemed Attorney General, Eric Holder, of whom my handpicked-choice to run to Democratic National Committee, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, has said, “objective and independent. And, make no mistake, Eric Holder is independent,” will argue for and convince the Supreme Court that the First Amendment does not protect speech that offends “Muslim sensibilities.”

25. Did I mention that Mitt Romney is rich…far richer than you unwashed masses can ever hope to be under this evil, capitalist system?

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 12:10 PM

What’s interesting is that we now have concrete proof that all the “libertarians” out there are nothing but closet liberals, as I was posting here for months now. New poll just out in NV points out that Johnson will actually pull votes from Hussein, not Romney, for the most part.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 12:15 PM

22. I still believe in Hope & Change!

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 11:47 AM

That’s been changed to ‘Mope and Blame”

WV. Paul on October 11, 2012 at 12:16 PM

What’s interesting is that we now have concrete proof that all the “libertarians” out there are nothing but closet liberals, as I was posting here for months now. New poll just out in NV points out that Johnson will actually pull votes from Hussein, not Romney, for the most part.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 12:15 PM

What I suspected all the time to be the case….after all they have the weed in common :)…

otherwise, excellent news?? Any idea if it’s the same in PA?? He’s getting 3% of the vote thete too…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 12:21 PM

So, basically what you’re saying is black people are too stupid to figure out how to get ID. Self-loathing much?

xblade on October 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM

And yet, somehow, all of them are able to buy booze and cigarettes. And cash their checks. Every liberal out there is so full of it…

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 12:22 PM

What I suspected all the time to be the case….after all they have the weed in common :)…

otherwise, excellent news?? Any idea if it’s the same in PA?? He’s getting 3% of the vote thete too…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 12:21 PM

I was actually worried this will be working against us. OTOH, overstock idiot CEO last night was still promoting Herr Doktor (guess where my money won’t be spent?).

Funny how they can only hide out and pretend to be someone else only for so long. Liberal scum always reveals its face, sooner or later.

I am guessing “faux liberals/libertarians”, in states other than NV will most likely usurp Hussein votes, it seems. Even if its a split in the end, I am fine with that.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Rasmussen Thursday. Obama 48-47. Romney pulls indies 46-45, republicans 87-8, democrats 12-86.

TOLD YA SO.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 9:27 AM


Rasmussen: Swing State Tracking: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

“I think you will see a tightening in the national polls going forward. What I care way more about it Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, etc. In those states, I feel our pathways to victory are there. There are two different campaigns, one in the battlegrounds and one everywhere else. THAT’S WHY THE NATIONAL POLLS AREN’T RELEVANT TO THIS CAMPAIGN.

- Jim Messina, Obama 2012 National Campaign Manager, 22 September 2012

So, which is it, Gumby?

Resist We Much on October 11, 2012 at 12:30 PM

I

am guessing “faux liberals/libertarians”, in states other than NV will most likely usurp Hussein votes, it seems. Even if its a split in the end, I am fine with that.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Byrne, yeah, suffice to take a look at his face and you know he’s not of the sane kind, he also supported OWS, so, go figure..notwithstanding, Overstock has some nice, well-priced stuff though :)

… ‘Split’ will work in Virginia, possibly in NH if the poll I saw a few days ago was real….in PA probably we need more than split….

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Reuters Ipsos Tracking Poll today puts Romney up +3%, yesterday it was +1%.

My suspician is that any changes we see at this point is statistical noise, one way or another. Tonights debate could change that, hopefully to our advantage.

WolvenOne on October 11, 2012 at 12:40 PM

… ‘Split’ will work in Virginia, possibly in NH if the poll I saw a few days ago was real….in PA probably we need more than split….

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Looks like VA is off the table already for Hussein, his people admitted yesterday they are pulling money out of there since it seems a done deal for Romney. Main reason I am now questioning (to be polite) poll results for the Senate seat there.

We’ve seen liberal spin before, but not anything like this time around.

AZ Senate seat is another spin of numbers and nothing else. What I’d like to know if McLaim and Kyl are actively helping to retain the seat.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 12:43 PM

“Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured, but not everyone is required to prove they are a citizen…
And now, any of those that refuse or are unable to prove they are citizens will receive free insurance paid for by those who are forced to buy insurance because they are citizens..”
~Ben Stein.

Strike Hornet on October 11, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Too bad. This thread is a waste of time.

Bmore on October 11, 2012 at 12:54 PM

In NV now Heller is increasing his lead as well. And this can only translate into better numbers for Romney, main reason to take any (low) numbers coming out of NV for Romney as suspect.

Nothing but liberal spin for now.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 1:00 PM

“One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.”

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/10/14352371-nbcwsjmarist-poll-romney-gains-in-key-swing-states?lite

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Gumby is right! Of the 18% of Ohio voting early, it’s 63-37 Obama. We’re F-ed!

But wait! What about the other 82%?

Mark Murray (NBC News) ‏@mmurraypolitics

Meanwhile, Romney is winning the OH voters who are planning to vote on Election Day, 52%-42%.

Do the math on that and Romney is winning Ohio 49.3 to 45.8

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Another great day of polls for Romney on balance (Rasmussen being the exception, but he got Obama +1 with indies, so it’s almost certainly noise):

Romney ahead:

Gallup 47/46 (up 1 from yesterday)
Reuters 47/44 (up 2 from yesterday)
UPI 49/46

RCP: R+1.3% (and that’s WITHOUT Reuters and UPI)

Tweet from PPP:

Our new Massachusetts poll finds both Obama’s smallest lead all year, and Warren’s biggest lead ever

RCP just flipped MI, OH, PA, NH and WI to TOSS UP, baby!

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 1:28 PM

You’re fired” — Big Bird

Schadenfreude on October 11, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Monmouth U National – Romney 47/46

TPM Poll average – Romney +3

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Link from another HA commenter, meci on October 11, 2012 at 1:37 PM .

You’ve got to see this! This is in Cleveland Ohio too.

http://cleveland.cbslocal.com/2012/10/11/pile-of-manure-dumped-on-an-ohio-democratic-headquarters/

WV. Paul on October 11, 2012 at 2:08 PM

RCP just flipped MI, OH, PA, NH and WI to TOSS UP, baby!

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Proof positive that last week’s WMUR/UNH “Poll” showing O’bamna ahead of Romney in NH by 15 was total junk.

FYI you may want to leave out the Reuters “poll” as it’s online.

Del Dolemonte on October 11, 2012 at 2:56 PM

Romney is up 8 points in California since last week.

A couple more good debates, and who knows?

PattyJ on October 11, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Jee, can we actually win the NE senate seat?? , this is great news…guess this is the PPP poll Riddick was talking about…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 3:51 PM

When does a bounce turn into a trend, then a landslide?

flataffect on October 11, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Oh boy’

anchorman on October 11, 2012 at 5:38 PM

PPP “Polling” Busted!

WaPo

PPP, a Democratic polling outfit, has long been viewed by suspicion by not only conservatives but by independent, credible pollsters. Now there is all the more reason to discount its “polling” as shoddy partisanship.

I spoke by phone today with Wisconsin voter Dave Summers, who lives in the Madison area. He told me, “I got a survey. I don’t normally answer these calls, but I did [this time]. I started out pretty normal — President, Senate.” However, he said it then got weirder. The automatic survey asked if he had a favorable or unfavorable impression of Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson. He said he was greatly disturbed when the automated call then asked, “Do you believe conservative media want white people to think Barack Obama hates them?” He said, “That bugged me.”

Link

Del Dolemonte on October 11, 2012 at 5:57 PM

“But wait! What about the other 82%?

Mark Murray (NBC News) ‏@mmurraypolitics

Meanwhile, Romney is winning the OH voters who are planning to vote on Election Day, 52%-42%.

Do the math on that and Romney is winning Ohio 49.3 to 45.8

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 1:18 PM”

McCain won on election day in Ohio, too. But the margin from early voting for Obama obliterated McCain’s election day margin.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 6:02 PM

McCain won on election day in Ohio, too. But the margin from early voting for Obama obliterated McCain’s election day margin.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Great, so Romney wins Ohio.

Oh, and Gumby?

FLORIDA – MASON/DIXON

Romney 51
Obama 44

KA-BOOM

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Jee, can we actually win the NE senate seat?? , this is great news…guess this is the PPP poll Riddick was talking about…

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 3:51 PM

I live here, so far saw only one Hussein yard sign that we saw. My biggest worry used to be “liberals”, err, I mean “libertarians” who, while masquerading as GOP, hijacked electoral votes here despite LANDSLIDE voting for Romney by the people. Same people these lying, cheating, drugs induced azzholes are supposed to represent. Now that it seems Johnson is going to peel them off Hussein’s numbers we seem to be OK.

Heller is doing better when you filter through responses to local papers, which even rabid communist rags are now reporting. Plus, Las Vegas is home to military, past and present, which is mostly GOP. That is offset lately by illegals and GULAG liberals moving here after they destroyed their own state. So, mixed numbers, but looking good and better. Even the House seat seems to be moving to a GOP candidate, Tarkanian’s son.

I am sure roughly 400K Mormons living in the state will have their say in the General as well. Something tells me polls we’re seeing here are greatly distorted in favor of Hussein.

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 6:26 PM

A couple more good debates, and who knows?

PattyJ on October 11, 2012 at 3:37 PM

After the damage the so called “republican” governor done to state GOP there is no chance. At all. Nada.

Let’s move on…

riddick on October 11, 2012 at 6:28 PM

“McCain won on election day in Ohio, too. But the margin from early voting for Obama obliterated McCain’s election day margin.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Great, so Romney wins Ohio.

Oh, and Gumby?

FLORIDA – MASON/DIXON

Romney 51
Obama 44

KA-BOOM

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 6:24 PM”

Mason/Dixon has been very good in the past, so this is good news for Romney.

But the early voting in Ohio is what lead Obama to victory in 08 and it looks to be doing the same thing now.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 6:28 PM

But the early voting in Ohio is what lead Obama to victory in 08 and it looks to be doing the same thing now.

gumbyandpokey on October 11, 2012 at 6:28 PM

*Yawn*

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 6:31 PM

And for those of you who think polls don’t matter, when all you see is Romney losing in poll after poll after poll, why would anyone want to join a sinking ship?

gumbyandpokey on September 24, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Obama Pollster: “Polls Don’t Matter” – Politico, yesterday

Chuck Schick on October 11, 2012 at 6:45 PM

jimver on October 11, 2012 at 11:44 AM

…as long as gummeandpoleme doesn’t touch your post with his pole directly…you should be safe!

KOOLAID2 on October 11, 2012 at 7:52 PM

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