Romney up two among likely voters in Gallup, now leads in RCP poll of polls

posted at 4:01 pm on October 9, 2012 by Allahpundit

Yes, I realize you’ve seen one or both of these numbers elsewhere, but I don’t care. I want in on this bloggy Fun Bunch celebration too, damn it.

Mitt Romney holds a slight edge over Barack Obama — 49% to 47% — in Gallup’s initial “likely voter” estimate, encompassing interviews from Oct. 2-8. Preferences tilt the opposite way among registered voters, 49% vs. 46% in Obama’s favor…

At this point, Romney voters are somewhat more likely to respond that they will definitely vote, that they have thought a lot about the election, and that they are more familiar with where people in their local area vote. These attitudes indicate that Romney at this juncture will benefit from higher turnout on Election Day among his supporters than will Obama. These patterns could change closer to Election Day as more voters become engaged or if Republicans’ or Democrats’ enthusiasm for voting is altered by campaign events.

Key footnote: According to Gallup, after losing his five-point lead last week, Obama’s back out to a five-point lead in their daily tracker over the past 36 hours. That’s the first — and so far only — data I’ve seen suggesting that Romney’s bounce might not be durable, and even that could turn back around if Ryan cements Mitt’s Denver thrashing of O with another clear win on Thursday. As things stand right now, though, thanks to Gallup, Rasmussen, and yesterday’s Pew blockbuster, Romney’s up nearly half a point in the RCP poll of polls, the first time he’s led since October of last year. In fact, if you rely on lefty site TPM’s poll tracker, the lead’s bigger than that: Romney 48.3, Obama 45.8 in the national popular vote, which somehow translates into 270 electoral votes for Obama and 206 for Romney in their EV model. The reason for that discrepancy, I think, is that there are a bunch of new national polls out that capture Romney’s post-debate surge but not as many state polls, so the EV number is based on old info. Rest assured that if Romney wins the popular vote by 2.5 points, he’s getting to 270 too.

One more taste of schadenfreudean goodness, this time from Greg Sargent:

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg is not known for flinching from delivering bad news to Democratic politicians, and his new diagnosis of Obama’s slippage in the polls is no exception.

Greenberg told me in an interview that his new research persuaded him that Mitt Romney beat Obama in the debate for a simple reason. Unmarried women — a critical piece of Obama’s coalition — did not hear Obama telling him how they would make their lives better. By contrast, they did hear Romney telling them he’d improve their lives…

“They heard nothing there that was relevant to them,” Greenberg says. “They were not hearing about issues or problems or things that Obama would do that affect their lives.”

They spent the better part of a year pushing “war on women” garbage at unmarried women, and this is where they’re at. Greenberg’s suggestion to Team O: Hammer Romney’s “47 percent” remarks at every opportunity. Obama’s response: You already know.


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KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Slow progress. ; )

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Oh and 101. And 102.

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Feel good about Romney’s chances right now, but I still think this will be close.

If it is a 269-269 tie, it will be decided by the House of Representatives, voted on by “state delegation”. Anybody know how many state delegations the GOP controls?

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 5:32 PM

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Dumb fluke # whatever.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 5:32 PM

So gumbo’s still pushing the 7.8 numbers?

Yeah..

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 5:34 PM

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Dumb fluke # whatever.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Sorry, my mistake.

I misread…wouldn’t be the first time.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 5:34 PM

Maybe you can sit us all down and have each of us eat a pack of trolls.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 5:20 PM

.
Would that be different from the fe||ating of the troll’s ego people are doing by responding to it?

PolAgnostic on October 9, 2012 at 5:37 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Why in the name of all that is Holy do you feed it??? Just ignore!

Chewy the Lab on October 9, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Feel good about Romney’s chances right now, but I still think this will be close.

If it is a 269-269 tie, it will be decided by the House of Representatives, voted on by “state delegation”. Anybody know how many state delegations the GOP controls?

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 5:32 PM

33, with one more split 4-4.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Gumby – relying on CNN polling? That is desperate.

Polling is still wrong, they are guessing. Their models – of the honest guys – are no longer valid. They are moving turnout and demographic info as they “feel” the race is moving.

Romney is ahead in the national vote – he will win that. I am still watching Ohio – the polling today underneath the numbers suggests more strength for Romney – I am moving strongly towards saying OH is out of Obama’s reach, but that is probably too premature.

Zomcon JEM on October 9, 2012 at 5:44 PM

33, with one more split 4-4.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 5:39 PM

OK, thanks. Interesting. I wonder if they each state is given equal weight or if they assign it proportional to population similar to the Electoral College itself.

Since there are 50 delegations, a 25-25 split would be theoretically possible. What is the tiebreaker then?

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Obama up 6 in NH in new CNN poll.

Mitt stinking it up again in another battleground state.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 5:52 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 5:52 PM

So where was that atomic bomb you promised? Fake like your brain?

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 5:58 PM

OK, thanks. Interesting. I wonder if they each state is given equal weight or if they assign it proportional to population similar to the Electoral College itself.

Since there are 50 delegations, a 25-25 split would be theoretically possible. What is the tiebreaker then?

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Each state delegation gets one vote, so no proportional weighting. In the case of a tie, the Vice-President “shall act as President” until the tie is broken (here I’m combining and summarizing the net effects of the twelfth and twentieth amendments to the Constitution).

Note: because the House and Senate take office before the President and Vice-President, it is the new House and Senate that would vote to pick the P and VP in the case of an electoral college tie.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Each state delegation gets one vote, so no proportional weighting. In the case of a tie, the Vice-President “shall act as President” until the tie is broken (here I’m combining and summarizing the net effects of the twelfth and twentieth amendments to the Constitution).

Note: because the House and Senate take office before the President and Vice-President, it is the new House and Senate that would vote to pick the P and VP in the case of an electoral college tie.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Interesting. Thanks for the insight!

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Re-electing Obama would assure this will be a Lost Decade and slogging through 4 more years of 1% growth and 100k jobs/month creation. I can’t believe that’s what Americans want.

tkyang99 on October 9, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Obama up 6 in NH in new CNN poll.

Mitt stinking it up again in another battleground state.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Equal to CT? Cool!

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Gumby you’re hilarious.

What a maroon.

CW on October 9, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Note: because the House and Senate take office before the President and Vice-President, it is the new House and Senate that would vote to pick the P and VP in the case of an electoral college tie.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 5:59 PM

But then assuming that nothing changes on the house and the senate front, meaning we keep the house but the dems still have the majority in the Senate, as it is likely going to be, how on earth are the two entities going to agree on anything? :).. Look at the deadlock we have now, imagine if it comes down to them to elect the next preezy :)…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 6:39 PM

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Doesn’t matter.

House picks pres. Senate picks VP.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 6:43 PM

But then assuming that nothing changes on the house and the senate front, meaning we keep the house but the dems still have the majority in the Senate, as it is likely going to be, how on earth are the two entities going to agree on anything? :).. Look at the deadlock we have now, imagine if it comes down to them to elect the next preezy :)…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 6:39 PM

They don’t have to agree on anything. In the event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House elects the President, and the Senate elects the Vice President. If neither chamber flipped but for some reason the House didn’t pick Romney after two weeks of negotiating with itself (a giant wave of state delegations going crazy and voting for Gary Johnson, I guess), then the Senate’s probable choice, Biden, would “act as President” until the House could get its act together and make a decision. Note that the twelfth amendment does not say Biden would actually be sworn in as President, only that he would act as President. And if the specter of an acting President Biden wouldn’t galvanize the House into getting off its duff, well, that would be surprising to me.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Well now that the polls show he’s ahead, they’re reliable.

rjl1999 on October 9, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Well now that the polls show he’s ahead, they’re reliable.

rjl1999 on October 9, 2012 at 7:04 PM

That makes you as dingy as the leftys and ABR nutballs.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Well now that the polls show he’s ahead, they’re reliable.

rjl1999 on October 9, 2012 at 7:04 PM

A very simplistic and silly comment. The point has been not just that the polls were unreliable, it was that they have been consistently biased in one direction. Now they have either ceased to be biased (which would be good), or they are still biased but the tide has shifted sufficiently that even their bias cannot hide voter trends (which would be bad for them but even better for us).

Your suggestion, that they have suddenly reversed course 180 degrees and are now biased in the opposite direction and that therefore conservatives are hypocrites for suddenly paying attention to them–that nothing is really going on here–is risible on its face. Whatever is going on, that ain’t it.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Your suggestion, that they have suddenly reversed course 180 degrees and are now biased in the opposite direction and that therefore conservatives are hypocrites for suddenly paying attention to them–that nothing is really going on here–is risible on its face. Whatever is going on, that ain’t it.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 7:24 PM

I’m not suggesting that they’re biased in the other direction. I’m suggesting that they never were. I see a lot of conspiracy type theories floated here at HA that are just as whiny and reactionary as the ones I read at Huffpost. Go back and read the thread about unemployment at 7.8%.

rjl1999 on October 9, 2012 at 8:00 PM

12K at Romney/Christie OH event. Largest OH crowd yet for Mitt.

budfox on October 9, 2012 at 8:12 PM

“12K at Romney/Christie OH event. Largest OH crowd yet for Mitt.”

That’s not very impressive, to be honest.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 8:29 PM

So where was that atomic bomb you promised? Fake like your brain?

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 5:58 PM

gumbypoked’s brain is the size of an atom. No, smaller. It is the size of a quark. And if you are familiar with Star Trek, gumbypoked actually looks like quark as well, on his good days.

bayview on October 9, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Slow progress. ; )

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 5:30 PM

..yeah…no sh!t!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 8:56 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012

wargamer6

Chuck Schick

…keep interacting with it so much…it’ll get confused and start whacking you off!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Obama up 6 in NH in new CNN poll.

Mitt stinking it up again in another battleground state.

gumbyandpokey

Yeah, cutting 9 points off the lead stinks. He was down 15 in that poll last week. Suck it, fluffer.

xblade on October 9, 2012 at 9:06 PM

“12K at Romney/Christie OH event. Largest OH crowd yet for Mitt.”

That’s not very impressive, to be honest.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 8:29 PM

You should wipe your mouth, its still dripping…

Hussein, yesterday, in a rabid liberal nest, could only dream of such numbers.

riddick on October 9, 2012 at 9:36 PM

You should wipe your mouth, its still dripping…

Hussein, yesterday, in a rabid liberal nest, could only dream of such numbers.

riddick on October 9, 2012 at 9:36 PM

That’s also without a free rock concert before the speeches, a technique little Bammie used in 2008 to blow up his numbers.

slickwillie2001 on October 9, 2012 at 10:07 PM

They don’t have to agree on anything. In the event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House elects the President, and the Senate elects the Vice President. If neither chamber flipped but for some reason the House didn’t pick Romney after two weeks of negotiating with itself (a giant wave of state delegations going crazy and voting for Gary Johnson, I guess), then the Senate’s probable choice, Biden, would “act as President” until the House could get its act together and make a decision. Note that the twelfth amendment does not say Biden would actually be sworn in as President, only that he would act as President. And if the specter of an acting President Biden wouldn’t galvanize the House into getting off its duff, well, that would be surprising to me.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Most Interesting. Thanks, this is very informative. Better news than I thought.

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 10:08 PM

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