Romney up two among likely voters in Gallup, now leads in RCP poll of polls

posted at 4:01 pm on October 9, 2012 by Allahpundit

Yes, I realize you’ve seen one or both of these numbers elsewhere, but I don’t care. I want in on this bloggy Fun Bunch celebration too, damn it.

Mitt Romney holds a slight edge over Barack Obama — 49% to 47% — in Gallup’s initial “likely voter” estimate, encompassing interviews from Oct. 2-8. Preferences tilt the opposite way among registered voters, 49% vs. 46% in Obama’s favor…

At this point, Romney voters are somewhat more likely to respond that they will definitely vote, that they have thought a lot about the election, and that they are more familiar with where people in their local area vote. These attitudes indicate that Romney at this juncture will benefit from higher turnout on Election Day among his supporters than will Obama. These patterns could change closer to Election Day as more voters become engaged or if Republicans’ or Democrats’ enthusiasm for voting is altered by campaign events.

Key footnote: According to Gallup, after losing his five-point lead last week, Obama’s back out to a five-point lead in their daily tracker over the past 36 hours. That’s the first — and so far only — data I’ve seen suggesting that Romney’s bounce might not be durable, and even that could turn back around if Ryan cements Mitt’s Denver thrashing of O with another clear win on Thursday. As things stand right now, though, thanks to Gallup, Rasmussen, and yesterday’s Pew blockbuster, Romney’s up nearly half a point in the RCP poll of polls, the first time he’s led since October of last year. In fact, if you rely on lefty site TPM’s poll tracker, the lead’s bigger than that: Romney 48.3, Obama 45.8 in the national popular vote, which somehow translates into 270 electoral votes for Obama and 206 for Romney in their EV model. The reason for that discrepancy, I think, is that there are a bunch of new national polls out that capture Romney’s post-debate surge but not as many state polls, so the EV number is based on old info. Rest assured that if Romney wins the popular vote by 2.5 points, he’s getting to 270 too.

One more taste of schadenfreudean goodness, this time from Greg Sargent:

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg is not known for flinching from delivering bad news to Democratic politicians, and his new diagnosis of Obama’s slippage in the polls is no exception.

Greenberg told me in an interview that his new research persuaded him that Mitt Romney beat Obama in the debate for a simple reason. Unmarried women — a critical piece of Obama’s coalition — did not hear Obama telling him how they would make their lives better. By contrast, they did hear Romney telling them he’d improve their lives…

“They heard nothing there that was relevant to them,” Greenberg says. “They were not hearing about issues or problems or things that Obama would do that affect their lives.”

They spent the better part of a year pushing “war on women” garbage at unmarried women, and this is where they’re at. Greenberg’s suggestion to Team O: Hammer Romney’s “47 percent” remarks at every opportunity. Obama’s response: You already know.


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Gumby, why was Rasmussen tied today? Last night you said Obama would be ahead.

Why did Romney surge by 4 in today’s Swing State poll? The jobs report saved his presidency.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 4:39 PM

D+2 is a bad sample?

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Yes…and why? Because it means those Indepedents are heavily skewing D if Obama leads Romney by 11% among RV.

sentinelrules on October 9, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Here’s my analysis of how things stand: If Romney beats or at least ties Obama in the next debate, and doesn’t have a “Rick Perry moment”, this thing is pretty much over barring a miracle.

The only other plausible scenario where I see Romney losing is: he totally melts down in the last debate, and then the Oct employment report miraculously shows 200k+ jobs created just before the election. But who knows stranger things have happened.

tkyang99 on October 9, 2012 at 4:40 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

seriously, you should relax. pay no attention to those reports that there’s a shake up a comin in the barry camp.

andrea mitchell and mark halpren are reporting that everything is fine…barry will win big…relax gumby…don’t freak like sully did, well, or chrissy

http://www.jammiewf.com/2012/lamestream-media-wish-tweet-of-the-day/

i’m sure that barry will win OH by 10 or 20 points…i mean he did save the auto industry, and killed bin Laden

r keller on October 9, 2012 at 4:40 PM

CNN/ORC POLL October 5-8 OHIO
Likely Voters’ Choice for President: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (MoE +/-3.5% pts)

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

All weekend polling. Not a credible poll.

kevinkristy on October 9, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Tedious little troll, isn’t it?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Ok, the IBD/TIPP poll, that’s amazing…

A key swing group making up nearly a third of voters, independents favor Romney over Obama 52%-34%.

If Romney carries Independents by EIGHTEEN points… how is this close?

Does Obama have a plan to pick up an extra 10-15% of Republican voters?

In 2008, the Democrats had a GREAT turnout year… what was the outcome?

Obama won by 7, and won Independents by 8… but he can win this year and lose independents (1/3rd of the electorate) by eighteen?

How does that math work?

gekkobear on October 9, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Caution, people, the polls are all over the place, I am becoming skeptical

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Just look at the unbiased average.

NapaConservative on October 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Oh, I’ve seen though, am not saying the momentum is not real, more like it will last? That was charlie cook’s point in his analysis and he has a darn good track record, h

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:41 PM

A lot now rides on Thursday’s debate. SlowJoe will try to stop Team Barry’s bleeding.

bayview on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Slow Joe will stop the bleeding.. ha ha… OMG my stomach is hurting… wipes tears…

antisocial on October 9, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Very noisy polling this week – the dust will settle by Fri/Sat, when the post-debate spike in the GOP enthusiasm will scroll off the sample.

If I had to guess, Obama was up about 4-5% before the debate, and will be up 1-2% in the poll averages by the end of the week. So, it amounts to 3% debate bounce for Romney, which is quite nice.

I think he is still behind, and probably losing Ohio by about 3%, but at least the Dukakis scenario is now avoided, we are back on the Kerry track.

buridan on October 9, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Gumby, why do we keep seeing PA within MOE?

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Just beggging for the Hammer.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 4:35 PM

…dumb fluke #44
…you guys are trying to make it plug all the drains in his moms basement….aren’t you?

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Keep going Romney – it’s working.

gophergirl on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Nope. According to true SoCon conservatives, Romney the RINO doesnt have a prayer. They want moar abortion, gay bashing and rubbers. Thats the ticket to victory.

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Oh Look. Its Libtards on campaign parade destroying property.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxDzPyd4XX0&feature=youtu.be

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:44 PM

CNN/ORC POLL October 5-8 OHIO
Likely Voters’ Choice for President: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (MoE +/-3.5% pts)

From ASOSHQ

New CNN Number So Terrible for Romney…
—CAC

It contributes to the decline in Obama’s Ohio “advantage.”

>Was
+5.5 five days ago (pre-debate numbers)
+3.0 two days ago.

Now:

+0.7.

I’m shaking in fear over Obama’s continued collapse. Really. I feel terrible for the trolls, for the Democrats, and for certain ewoks who get woozy after I’ve stepped on them.

Let’s all freak out when CNN says their new poll “shows a shift towards Romney” since the previous polls had double that margin.

Close it up

MontanaMmmm on October 9, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Chucky!…yours is going to fall off !

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Ryan better ding Biden on Al Queda’s big comeback.

rubberneck on October 9, 2012 at 4:44 PM

I think he is still behind, and probably losing Ohio by about 3%, but at least the Dukakis scenario is now avoided, we are back on the Kerry track.

buridan on October 9, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Concern noted.

lorien1973 on October 9, 2012 at 4:44 PM

…have you shown your wife pictures of what you could be catching?

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

I need to catch me a wife first. But my prospects are probably low since wymyns apparently want to exterminate all men with hair.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:37 PM

That bad, huh? :)…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Just begging for the Hammer.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:43 PM

I’m surprised Allah is putting up with it. He doesn’t do tedious normally.

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:45 PM

gumbyandpokey.

start your own website.

why don’t you send Hot Air an e-mail. I’m sure Ed would welcome your suggestions

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 4:45 PM

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 4:44 PM

You’ve been at this all day, trying to sow seeds of discontent. Give it up, jackwagon.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Speaking of Polling part deux……….

American Research Group polls show Romney leading Obama in Colorado, Ohio – @politicalwire

5 hours ago from politicalwire.com by editor

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/latest_swing_state_polls.html

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 4:38 PM

And the ARG poll is D/R/I 42/33/25, D+9, but with a much more reasonable indy number, and women/men is 52-48.

The CNN poll is D/R/I 34/32/34, indies waaay oversampled (that means they’re democrats) and no male-female breakdown — let’s just go out on a limb a guess it’s around 60-40. That is what these sharia media polls do now, they oversample single women to get the results Zero’s team wants. This is about all axelgrease still has in his arsenal — getting his sharia media campaign staff to drop fake polls whenever Romney gets some traction. So transparent. Delicious desperation.

Rational Thought on October 9, 2012 at 4:46 PM

“I think he is still behind, and probably losing Ohio by about 3%, but at least the Dukakis scenario is now avoided, we are back on the Kerry track.

buridan on October 9, 2012 at 4:42 PM”

Wow, a realistic post here. I can’t believe it!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

That bad, huh? :)…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:45 PM

It could be the Santa Claus beard.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Why ricky, is the trolling really necessary?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

ROMNEY AHEAD IN NEW OHIO POLL:

PRESIDENT – OHIO (ARG)
Mitt Romney (R) 48%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 47%

picklesgap on October 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Greenberg’s suggestion to Team O: Hammer Romney’s “47 percent” remarks at every opportunity. Obama’s response: You already know.

The problem with this is the remaining 53% know that Romney spoke the truth, and 53% is a majority.

Further, a large portion of the 47% are military. Anybody think the men and women in the foxholes are gonna vote for Obama?

“Former President Obama”

(I’ve been practicing that)

BobMbx on October 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Okay, gonna address a few things.

First off, apparently Gallop doesn’t know how to do basic math, because their assertion that Obama is back to pre-debate averages in the past 48 hours doesn’t check out. Basically, Sunday’s polling on Gallop was gangbusters for Obama, it was enough to take him from +3 for Obama among registered voters to +5, which means sundays numbers were better than the ones they replaced.

Mondays numbers however, were so bad that it dragged Obama’s lead among registered voters back down to +3 Obama, which translates into +2 Romney among likely voters. In other words, if you average these two days out and compare them to the two days last week they replaced, they were, “worse,” overall.

We actually see a similar trend on Rasmussen, Sunday polling for Romney was horrible, and the experts expected Romney to lose ground once Monday polling was factored in, by virtue of Romney losing the strong poll numbers he generated the previous Friday. Low and behold, not only did Romney not lose ground, but if you look at the internals it’s clear that Mondays poll numbers are better than Fridays.

Or you can look at single day polls, the Rasmussen poll on Nevada was taken entirely yesterday, and has Romney tied there despite the fact that he’s been struggling in that state all year.

Basically, the people that watch polls closely now believe the, “poor weekend,” polling was an artifact of weekend polling. Statistical noise is a lot higher on the weekend, and tends to favor Democrats slightly.

So, no, Romney’s surge shows no real signs of dissipation. What we are seeing, is just more evidence than weekend polling is less reliable and favors democrats.

WolvenOne on October 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Oh, I’ve seen though, am not saying the momentum is not real, more like it will last? That was charlie cook’s point in his analysis and he has a darn good track record, h

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:41 PM

That Charlie Cook article was published Saturday October 6 and was more likely written either Thursday or Friday right after the debate way before the polls showing Romney gaining momentum. And I have always considered Cook a democrat hack. It means nothing as does Cook.

bgibbs1000 on October 9, 2012 at 4:48 PM

r keller on October 9, 2012 at 4:40 PM

…dumb fluke #45…you guys are wearing me out…while that one is juuuuust stroking its poll so much sparks are flying!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Nope. According to true SoCon conservatives, Romney the RINO doesnt have a prayer. They want moar abortion, gay bashing and rubbers. Thats the ticket to victory.

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Will you please shut up. You are either an idiot or a Democrat troll, (but I repeat myself) trying to re-start an argument that Republicans have long since put behind them.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 4:48 PM

ROMNEY AHEAD IN SECOND OHIO POLL:

PRESIDENT – OHIO (We Ask America)
Mitt Romney (R) 47%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%

picklesgap on October 9, 2012 at 4:49 PM

The shake-up at Barry’s campaign may involve them getting rid of low rent and ineffective trolls like gumbypoked.

bayview on October 9, 2012 at 4:49 PM

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Y’all.

The trolls ain’t goin’ nowhere.

The quota for their trolling has been upped because of the dismal showing of their messiah.

If they don’t meet their quota, their 0bamaphone gets turned off.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Outside of a campaign surprise or some great performance by Obama at the debates, what is left to change the trajectory of the race? A ton of people watched that debate last week and moved toward Romney…that much is obvious. I just don’t know what could change their mind back the other way.

changer1701 on October 9, 2012 at 4:50 PM

I think you confusing Gallup with Rasumussen. Gallup uses a 7-day, and just began their likely voter screening today.

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 4:37 PM

I don’t think so Norwegian. Go read the post….http://hotair.com/archives/2012/10/09/romney-takes-lead-in-rasmussen-swing-state-tracking-poll-4946/

Here are the two quotes from RASSMUSSEN….

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days,

KMav on October 9, 2012 at 4:51 PM

moar abortion, gay bashing and rubbers.

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 4:44 PM

…you might like it here!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:51 PM

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Ed, a while back, warned us that it was going to get rough, the closer we came to November 6th. I look for more Troll Sleeper Cells to active, and the others to crank up their incessant posting, until it resembles Rosanne Barr destroying the National Anthem.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Why are they being ignored?

Because they indicate a wave election is building for Republicans and that is not something the LSM wants to publicize.

PolAgnostic on October 9, 2012 at 4:28 PM

I really, really, really hope that you are right about that!

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:52 PM

kevinkristy on October 9, 2012 at 4:40 PM

…dumb fluke #46

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Ed, a while back, warned us that it was going to get rough, the closer we came to November 6th. I look for more Troll Sleeper Cells to active, and the others to crank up their incessant posting, until it resembles Rosanne Barr destroying the National Anthem.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:52 PM

The problem is they mistake us for easily led liberals. The only people gumby is convincing to stay home are leftists who think Obama has the whole thing wrapped up.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Why ricky, is the trolling really necessary?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

At this point, I find the trolling tag team of Ricky & Gumby quite entertaining.

Yeah, they are both complete idiots, but still provide a lot of comedic relief.

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

KMav on October 9, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Rasmussen is starting to rewieght his polls according to his monthly party ID. What I hear is he went from D+3 to D+2 the past day or 2.

He has September at R +2.6. He has had GOP up the entire year. In 2010, he had D up right up until October.

If his party ID is correct, and he nailed 2008 D+7, Romney wins in a landslide.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Outside of a campaign surprise or some great performance by Obama at the debates, what is left to change the trajectory of the race? A ton of people watched that debate last week and moved toward Romney…that much is obvious. I just don’t know what could change their mind back the other way.

changer1701 on October 9, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Martial law? How about Obama going full Lincoln on us and suspending the parts of the Constitution he doesn’t like (which is all of it)?

Making Romney an offer he can’t refuse?

Sitting down on live TV, hitting the peace pipe with Al Qaeda, Iran, etc…?

BobMbx on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

“ROMNEY AHEAD IN SECOND OHIO POLL:

PRESIDENT – OHIO (We Ask America)
Mitt Romney (R) 47%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 46%

picklesgap on October 9, 2012 at 4:49 PM”

We Ask America, the firm that had Walker up 12 pts in the recall!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Look at the bright side; for them to be so unhinged is better news than good polls.

And besides “whack-a-troll” is fun.

I am torn between wanting a fluke number from KOOLAIDE2 so I can be a cool kid, or be ready to have him for a snack if he calls me a fluke.

Oh, the dilemma.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Will you please shut up. You are either an idiot or a Democrat troll, (but I repeat myself) trying to re-start an argument that Republicans have long since put behind them.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 4:48 PM

SoCons need to wake the hell up that if Rick Santorum and his ilk were nominated this election would of been over in Obamas favor a long time ago.

Take a lesson from Mitt about how its done.

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Yeah, they are both complete idiots, but still provide a lot of comedic relief.

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Lol! At least ricky isn’t nearly as tedious. Maybe Allah will take up my suggestion since I placed it early on the next thread. ; )

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:58 PM

As for CNN/ORC’s Ohio poll. After seeing poll after poll with a shrinking Gender Gap, CNN’s poll shows the opposite, with an absolutely immense gender gap. It’s also the first poll in over a week to show Obama leading Indy’s, though here it’s only a tie.

Basically, ORC is the odd man out, which would make it very suspect even before you get into this pollsters sordid history.

WolvenOne on October 9, 2012 at 4:58 PM

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Give it up, jackwagon. Obama’s moving out.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Oh, the dilemma.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Not you too? Boss, me, troll? Which are you today?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:59 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

your just like us. you only like polls you like. we have that in common.

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 5:00 PM

We Ask America, the firm that had Walker up 12 pts in the recall!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

The recall you said Walker would lose, no doubt.

changer1701 on October 9, 2012 at 5:00 PM

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

..hey, hoser, I was waitin’ all night last night at the border for ya. You take off?

:-D

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM

The War Planner:

Lol,hey,I was busy,and lost track of time feeding my Canadian Beavers!(sarc):)

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 5:00 PM

We Ask America, the firm that had Walker up 12 pts in the recall!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Closer than CNN’s exit poll for the recall election: 48%/48%?

LOL.

sentinelrules on October 9, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Rasmussen is starting to rewieght his polls according to his monthly party ID. What I hear is he went from D+3 to D+2 the past day or 2.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

A 1 point swing in party ID will not explain a 30 point swing in a week.

KMav on October 9, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Barry thought he won the debate.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2215173/Obama-believed-beaten-Romney-Denver-debate-ignoring-advice-aides.html#ixzz28piyPmDT

H/T Pork-Chop

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM


DeLusion

… the new all electric vehicle coming January 2013 for Obama & his supporters*

( * – Note: the Auto insurance industry has stated they will not be providing ANY coverage for DeLusion owners due to the increased risk of fires and the inability of the target demographic to maintain a reality based focus.)

PolAgnostic on October 9, 2012 at 5:01 PM

It’s funny how Daily Kosers are now pinning their entire hopes and dreams on a single state poll.

What a huge turnaround this is from a week ago….

tkyang99 on October 9, 2012 at 5:02 PM

here’s one thing that is True

All we can be sure of, in the words of the peerless Internet humorist Iowahawk, “political poll results accurately reflect the opinions of the weirdo 9 percent who agree to participate in political polls.”

What yesterday proved is that all bets are off. We’re judging the state of this contest with junk data, and we need to stop. Until pollsters can figure out how to avoid all these crazy mood swings and white noise, they should be put on political and pundit probation.

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/the_day_polling_died_avC02WOQrbvvohrTLZwgAI

r keller on October 9, 2012 at 5:03 PM

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Give it up, jackwagon. Obama’s moving out.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Obama and Holder would have been going over their Supreme Court choices for a second term if the SoCon Santorumites had their way during the primaries.

Don’t dismiss the lessons of this campaign lightly. Its about appealing to independent voters and Moderate Demonrats.

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 5:03 PM

You can see the Prog freak out all over the web…even here at HA!

d1carter on October 9, 2012 at 5:03 PM

A 1 point swing in party ID will not explain a 30 point swing in a week.

KMav on October 9, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Swing state may be more and he may have done it retroactively. I’m not really sure. But, no I don’t think it’s 100% surge either.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Wow, a realistic post here. I can’t believe it!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Miraculous 7.8%
7.8% Atomic Bomb.

speaking of realistic posts.

chemman on October 9, 2012 at 5:04 PM

We Ask America, the firm that had Walker up 12 pts in the recall!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

WAA: Walker 54, Barrett 42, Undecided 4

Final result: Walker 53, Barrett 46

Not exactly the miss you describe it as. Only two other pollsters were within one point of Walker’s final result. Forget all of that though. You go on and on about the RCP average in many other posts. If the RCP average is king, why doesn’t the RCP average for Ohio register with you?

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Timely reminder there Del. Thanks! Do we know yet if the troll reads?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Disclaimer: Vinod Gupta no longer runs the CNN/ORC “Poll”, and for good reason. But it just shows what CNN was willing to do in years past.

Federal Election Commission | July 3, 2007

The latest report from the Federal Election Commission shows that CNN pollster Vinod Gupta donated $14,250 to the Democratic National Committee in May. Here is Gupta’s list of donations for the 2008 election cycle -

3. Gupta, Vinod
2/20/2007 $1,000.00
Omaha, NE 68127
infoUSA Inc./Chairman/CEO [Contribution]
HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT EXPLORATORY COMMITTEE INC.

4. Gupta, Vinod
5/18/2007 $14,250.00
Omaha, NE 68127
infoUSA/CEO [Contribution]
DNC SERVICES CORPORATION/DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE

5. Gupta, Vinod
2/27/2007 $10,000.00
Omaha, NE 68127
Info USA/Chairman [Contribution]
DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL CAMPAIGN COMMITTEE

What’s so amazing is that CNN actually thought they could get away with this. They tried using a loophole:

Gupta is not directly employed by CNN. Instead, he controls Opinion Research Corp., which is in a “formal polling partnership” with CNN for the 2008 presidential race, so this loophole allows Gupta to make huge donations to his favorite politicians without any disclosures during reports of CNN Poll results.

Want more?

From 2002 through 2006, InfoUSA paid Bill Clinton over $2 million as a consultant. They spent $900,000 to fly him around the world for his presidential foundation work and to fly Hillary Clinton to campaign events.

…..after Ms. Pelosi was sworn in as Speaker of the House, her son Paul Pelosi Jr. was hired by InfoUSA as its Vice President for Strategic Planning, at a salary of $180,000 per year.

And to make it convenient for Paul Pelosi Jr. to strategically plan things for InfoUSA, he is able to remain at his full-time job as a mortgage officer for Countrywide Loans in California. Unlike all the other employees at InfoUSA, he does not have to report to work at the company’s headquarters in Omaha, Nebraska.

No “Bias” there. Move On dot org.

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Oh, I’ve seen though, am not saying the momentum is not real, more like it will last? That was charlie cook’s point in his analysis and he has a darn good track record, h

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:41 PM

That Charlie Cook article was published Saturday October 6 and was more likely written either Thursday or Friday right after the debate way before the polls showing Romney gaining momentum. And I have always considered Cook a democrat hack. It means nothing as does Cook.

bgibbs1000 on October 9, 2012 at 4:48 PM

On his website it’s dated 8 Oct actually, but you might be roght, his site takes annoying,y long to update, I think he dirst publishes his analyses in the NJ and rn they mke it unto his site. But you migth be right, I am currently reading another article by him, in the National Journal, dated 10 Oct, and while he still sounds v cautious, he looks like he is a lot more unsure, and he raises a lot more questions marks, we will see over the next week if the momentum for Romney holds’ bla, blah….bere’s how he ends said article, pretty inconclusive…but maybe this flurry of polls that we see is exactly shat he ist talking about:

More data are always a good thing, and there should be more reliable surveys–both nationwide and in swing states–released in the next day or so that will make it easier to pinpoint exactly how much Obama fell and Romney gained from the rumble in the Rockies. Romney desperately needed a break, something to change the trajectory of this race, and clearly he got one in the debate. How much exactly the debate did and how much the surprisingly strong jobs report on Friday offset it will become more clear in the coming days.

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 5:04 PM

We Ask America, the firm that had Walker up 12 pts in the recall!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Greg, why are you afraid to use your real name?

T-Rav on October 9, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Which are you today?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Heck, I dunno’. My multiple personality disorder has been on a rampage lately and I cannot tell which of y’all I am, and of y’all I ain’t. Heck, I would even be proud to be AP today. Since he kicked Eeyore out of the bed.

Of course, I could be all of y’all…maybe steveangleironhead could come and figure it out.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 5:05 PM

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Wrong, you idiot. Romney figured out wwhat Reagan did. It’s about appealing to Americans.

Christians make up 78% of the population. Get over it.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Darn typing on the ipad, wish I had an obamaphone that types correctly by default…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 5:06 PM

“We Ask America, the firm that had Walker up 12 pts in the recall!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:55 PM

The recall you said Walker would lose, no doubt.

changer1701 on October 9, 2012 at 5:00 PM”

That’s the one.

And We Ask America had that Walker +12 result in it’s last two polls, so it just wasn’t one bad result.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Nate Silver, this one’s for you!

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Nate Silver lost any relevance and any respect I had for him today. People would laugh at him if he was on a message board touting his “secret” election model, instead people pay attention to him because he works for the New York Times.

midgeorgian on October 9, 2012 at 4:21 PM

That alone should disqualify him from any credibility, as he’s working for a newspaper that endorsed O’bamna in 2008, and will do so again this year. As such, he can’t be “objective”.

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 5:07 PM

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Research is hard isn’t it. SoCons make up 17% of the electorate. You think you can totally dismiss them and have Romney still win. This election is about everyone. Most Socons I know are voting for Romney even if he wasn’t their first choice. So get over your anger and quit being a bore.

chemman on October 9, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Greg, why are you afraid to use your real name?

who’s greg

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 5:08 PM

And We Ask America had that Walker +12 result in it’s last two polls, so it just wasn’t one bad result.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 5:06 PM

About as wrong as PPP was in that race.

sentinelrules on October 9, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Greg, why are you afraid to use your real name?

who’s greg

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Gumby’s nom de plume at Ace of Spades…he tried to sam tha one too, but he eas banned there apparently…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 5:09 PM

He tried To spam…but he was banned that is…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 5:10 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:36 PM

For you…except it’s Tuesday and you just can’t seem to shake it…

right2bright on October 9, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Greg, why are you afraid to use your real name?

T-Rav on October 9, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Gumbypoked is Greg when he goes back to the bath house.

bayview on October 9, 2012 at 5:10 PM

It’s funny how Daily Kosers are now pinning their entire hopes and dreams on a single state poll.

i had not thought of that. during our depressed cycle we just depended on Rassmussen while democrats laughed at us.

you are exactly right-now they are depending on one poll.

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 5:11 PM

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Well if you are thinking you might be the gumpy or pokey one today, do me a favor. Ban yourself! You will still be able to comeback as me or you or who knows someone else. Just pick one, anyone, who would you like to come back as?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 5:12 PM

That Charlie Cook article was published Saturday October 6 and was more likely written either Thursday or Friday right after the debate way before the polls showing Romney gaining momentum. And I have always considered Cook a democrat hack. It means nothing as does Cook.

bgibbs1000 on October 9, 2012 at 4:48 PM

This is the part of his more recent 10 Oct article in National Journal, that I didn’t like:

‘The only live interview battleground state poll that was out as of Monday night was a Selzer and Co. poll for the debate’s home campus, the University of Denver, taken Oct. 4 and 5 of 604 likely Colorado voters. This poll showed Obama ahead by 4 points, at 47 percent to 43 percent, roughly splitting the difference between mid-September polls by CBS News and The New York Times by Quinnipiac University, which showed Obama up by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent, and an NBC News and Wall Street Journal poll conducted by Marist University that put the margin at 5 points, 50 percent to 45 percent. All three polls were of likely voters.’

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 5:12 PM

One more thing about the Ohio CNN/ORC poll. It seems they greatly under-sampled white voters, as Obama only gets 40% of the white vote. That 40% figure is considered a magical number, basically, it’s the bare minimum Obama needs to have an at all realistic shot at winning Ohio. Below 40%, and Obama suddenly has far too much ground to make even with near monolithic support from African Americans.

Basically, at that number Obama should be barely hanging on within the state. The only way he would have a measurable advantage despite that, is if ORC under-polled White Voters by a significant amount.

WolvenOne on October 9, 2012 at 5:13 PM

What’s most encouraging is that he keep steadily moving up in the RCP average. When you look at the area line at the bottom of the chart, you see a steady progression for Mitt. Scott Conroy had a good article explaining how Obama has been successful at manufacturing a bump for himself when Romney has pulled close to even. Each of those bumps has been getting smaller over time. Now he has lost his lead altogether. A good performance from Ryan against BiteMe (does the word “slam dunk” mean anything to you?) will solidify that lead and intensify Mitt’s upward trend. What’s more, with the R&R teams direct exposure to the public, Obama’s nasty little games should become increasingly less effective at villainizing them.

MJBrutus on October 9, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Research is hard isn’t it. SoCons make up 17% of the electorate. You think you can totally dismiss them and have Romney still win. This election is about everyone. Most Socons I know are voting for Romney even if he wasn’t their first choice. So get over your anger and quit being a bore.

chemman on October 9, 2012 at 5:07 PM

You still don’t get it. Romney has not ignored SoCons. He’s been respectful and everyone knows he’s sympathetic. He has simply refused to preen publicly to their social obsessions knowing that it would turn off indies and moderate Dems.

In other words, he’s being politically smart, knowing that the only way to make conservative social changes is by getting elected. The only way to get elected is having SoCons STFU, and start working beneath the radar after he’s elected.

Somehow, I still think you’re clueless.

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Folks, we need to stop our obsession with the polls including the ones that favor us… The two metrics of winning and losing the elections have not changed. The two metrics are as follow:

1. Percentage of Obama total voters from 2008 who would stay home in 2012.

2. Percentage of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 who would switch to Romney in 2012.

If only 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 are going to stay home in 2012 combined with only 10% of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 are going to switch for Romney in 2012 then Obama is certain to lose the elections.

No need to get a poll to see that the Obama voters are much less energized in 2012 compared to 2008. The 3% is a very conservative estimate. The polls also confirm the energy gap is much more in favor of Republicans in 2012… No need for polling to realize that at least 10% of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 are switching to Romney in 2012…Just look around you and you know that this is true. Some polls have shown that Obama is losing more than 10% of his “White Voters” from 2008 and that they are switching to Romney. In some battleground states those percentage can even be less for Obama to lose them (ex: Florida, Ohio, and Virginia)…

If the above happens and I am confident that it will happen then Obama is certain to lose the elections. The Math cannot be challenged here.

mnjg on October 9, 2012 at 5:16 PM

gumbyandpokey.

start your own website.

why don’t you send Hot Air an e-mail. I’m sure Ed would welcome your suggestions

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 4:45 PM

…wouldn’t need too if all the dumb flukes would ignore it!…the dumb fluke club is almost up to 50…and that doesn’t count the ones who 11 or 70 times have responded to give that ones poll(sp) multiple orgasims.It’s getting off on you people!…oh but we have to tell it!…we can’t let dem get away wid der falsehoods!…we hab to stan up to dem!…we hab to sho dem wier riggggght!…hey!…let them go play in moms basement with their lotion…I’m trying to waste the same space with my childish game that you guys let THEM waste answering to their bullsh!t.

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 5:17 PM

T-Rav on October 9, 2012 at 5:05 PM

…dumb fluke #49

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 5:19 PM

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Maybe you can sit us all down and have each of us eat a pack of trolls.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 5:20 PM

who’s greg

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 5:08 PM

gumby’s name over on Ace of Spades. He’s been trolling with the jobs data in both places since Friday. They’re both wrong obviously. Everyone’s still talking about the debates.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 5:20 PM

sentinelrules on October 9, 2012 at 5:00 PM

…dumb fluke #50

(you win a gross of rubbers!)

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Barry thought he won the debate.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2215173/Obama-believed-beaten-Romney-Denver-debate-ignoring-advice-aides.html#ixzz28piyPmDT

H/T Pork-Chop

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Sorry, but I don’t buy that spin…it was reported on ABC that no president has ever spent more time or effort preparing for a debate, a poster linked that this morning.

This is the spin that Obama is making, “I didn’t try, that’s why I lost”, well sorry pal, the fact is…He tried harder than any other candidate prior, and he failed, he lost, on his best day, after the best preparation, he lost to a better man.

I laugh at the attempt to frame this as an aberration…it’s a fact, Obama lost because he is not as smart, aware, quick, knowledgeable, personable, experienced, or presidential as Mitt Romney.

right2bright on October 9, 2012 at 5:23 PM

The Matthews “tingle going up his leg” has transitioned into a tinkle going down his leg.

Schadenfreude on October 9, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Heh. Now Claire McCaskill gets an anvil dropped on her head:

Businesses affiliated with the husband of Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill have received almost $40 million in federal subsidies for low-income housing developments during her first five years in office…

One month out, and Missouri’s voters get a little reminder: Oh, yeah, our Senator is corrupt as hell.

Rational Thought on October 9, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Yeah, McCaskill is a corrupt hack, but Akin needs an update to his 1960′s sex education. Where are your priorities?

slickwillie2001 on October 9, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Maybe you can sit us all down and have each of us eat a pack of trolls.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 5:20 PM

…oh no!…I don’t think they bathe!…and some have sticky body fluids all over them…that shouldn’t be there normally!
I don’t want any of my dumb flukes getting sick!…I just want them to QUIT BEING dumb flukes!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 5:27 PM

My hope is that when Romney gets elected he remembers who elected him and why. Some of these libs are going to join Romney to change Romney.

I pray to God that he doesn’t make compromise and bi-partisanship his highest priority.

JellyToast on October 9, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Yeah, McCaskill is a corrupt hack, but Akin needs an update to his 1960′s sex education. Where are your priorities?

slickwillie2001 on October 9, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Aiken is example #1 of where the Santorumites would of had the Republican party in the presidential race had they had their way.

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 5:29 PM

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