Romney up two among likely voters in Gallup, now leads in RCP poll of polls

posted at 4:01 pm on October 9, 2012 by Allahpundit

Yes, I realize you’ve seen one or both of these numbers elsewhere, but I don’t care. I want in on this bloggy Fun Bunch celebration too, damn it.

Mitt Romney holds a slight edge over Barack Obama — 49% to 47% — in Gallup’s initial “likely voter” estimate, encompassing interviews from Oct. 2-8. Preferences tilt the opposite way among registered voters, 49% vs. 46% in Obama’s favor…

At this point, Romney voters are somewhat more likely to respond that they will definitely vote, that they have thought a lot about the election, and that they are more familiar with where people in their local area vote. These attitudes indicate that Romney at this juncture will benefit from higher turnout on Election Day among his supporters than will Obama. These patterns could change closer to Election Day as more voters become engaged or if Republicans’ or Democrats’ enthusiasm for voting is altered by campaign events.

Key footnote: According to Gallup, after losing his five-point lead last week, Obama’s back out to a five-point lead in their daily tracker over the past 36 hours. That’s the first — and so far only — data I’ve seen suggesting that Romney’s bounce might not be durable, and even that could turn back around if Ryan cements Mitt’s Denver thrashing of O with another clear win on Thursday. As things stand right now, though, thanks to Gallup, Rasmussen, and yesterday’s Pew blockbuster, Romney’s up nearly half a point in the RCP poll of polls, the first time he’s led since October of last year. In fact, if you rely on lefty site TPM’s poll tracker, the lead’s bigger than that: Romney 48.3, Obama 45.8 in the national popular vote, which somehow translates into 270 electoral votes for Obama and 206 for Romney in their EV model. The reason for that discrepancy, I think, is that there are a bunch of new national polls out that capture Romney’s post-debate surge but not as many state polls, so the EV number is based on old info. Rest assured that if Romney wins the popular vote by 2.5 points, he’s getting to 270 too.

One more taste of schadenfreudean goodness, this time from Greg Sargent:

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg is not known for flinching from delivering bad news to Democratic politicians, and his new diagnosis of Obama’s slippage in the polls is no exception.

Greenberg told me in an interview that his new research persuaded him that Mitt Romney beat Obama in the debate for a simple reason. Unmarried women — a critical piece of Obama’s coalition — did not hear Obama telling him how they would make their lives better. By contrast, they did hear Romney telling them he’d improve their lives…

“They heard nothing there that was relevant to them,” Greenberg says. “They were not hearing about issues or problems or things that Obama would do that affect their lives.”

They spent the better part of a year pushing “war on women” garbage at unmarried women, and this is where they’re at. Greenberg’s suggestion to Team O: Hammer Romney’s “47 percent” remarks at every opportunity. Obama’s response: You already know.


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I love Polls. Go Mitt

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Who kidnapped Eeyore?

aunursa on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

CNN/ORC POLL October 5-8 OHIO
Likely Voters’ Choice for President: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (MoE +/-3.5% pts)

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

D+8 poll with Romney winning by two. That means more realistic internals would have Romney up by 7 to 10 points.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

A lot now rides on Thursday’s debate. SlowJoe will try to stop Team Barry’s bleeding.

bayview on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Nate Silver, this one’s for you!

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Key footnote: According to Gallup, after losing his five-point lead last week, Obama’s back out to a five-point lead in their daily tracker over the past 36 hours. That’s the first — and so far only — data I’ve seen suggesting that Romney’s bounce might not be durable

Must have been the Big Bird thing. It’s a clear winner.

Rational Thought on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

D+8 poll with Romney winning by two. That means more realistic internals would have Romney up by 7 to 10 points.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM


Linky.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:05 PM

but I don’t care. I want in on this bloggy Fun Bunch celebration too, damn it.

Lol! ; )

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:05 PM

Welcome to the party Allah
:)

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Some poor troll shot his wad on one poll and ruined his pathetic little career today. Lol!

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Fun Bunch group forming now.

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:06 PM

“Key footnote: According to Gallup, after losing his five-point lead last week, Obama’s back out to a five-point lead in their daily tracker over the past 36 hours. That’s the first — and so far only — data I’ve seen suggesting that Romney’s bounce might not be durable”

Told ya so.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Fun Bunch group forming now.

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Don’t make it sound teh ghey. :P

lorien1973 on October 9, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Heh. Now Claire McCaskill gets an anvil dropped on her head:

Businesses affiliated with the husband of Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill have received almost $40 million in federal subsidies for low-income housing developments during her first five years in office…

One month out, and Missouri’s voters get a little reminder: Oh, yeah, our Senator is corrupt as hell.

Rational Thought on October 9, 2012 at 4:08 PM

I want in on this bloggy Fun Bunch celebration too, damn it.

Jump on in the water is fine. And bubbly. And surprisingly (not) ABR and libiot free.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Allah you need to update with the linky re dear leader actually thought he won the debate h/t pork chop

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

I believe this is the 1st time Romney has led the RCP average.

SouthernGent on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Keep going Romney – it’s working.

gophergirl on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

0bama tries to counter with another sad attempt at comedian-in-chief. Unfortunately he can’t even get an OJ joke right.

“Finally, somebody is cracking down on Big Bird,” Obama quipped. “Elmo has been seen in a white Suburban. He’s driving for the border.”

Simpson was the passenger in a white Chevy Bronco that served as a getaway car in his 1994 infamous attempt to avoid capture by authorities following the brutal murder of his ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman. Simpson was acquitted in 1995 after a highly publicized trial.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/10/09/obama_uses_elmo_to_make_oj_simpson_joke_at_san_francisco_fundraiser.html

Brat on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

lorien1973 on October 9, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Lolz. You mean like the Carpet Muncher Marsha Brady Bunch?

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

And if Rasmussen shows Obama back in the lead tomorrow and Gallup has obama surging head by 5 pts, then I was right all along.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Who kidnapped Eeyore?

aunursa on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Didn’t you read the post?

Key footnote: According to Gallup, after losing his five-point lead last week, Obama’s back out to a five-point lead in their daily tracker over the past 36 hours. That’s the first — and so far only — data I’ve seen suggesting that Romney’s bounce might not be durable

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 4:10 PM

“I believe this is the 1st time Romney has led the RCP average.

SouthernGent on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM”

And it will be gone tomorrow if Gallup has Obama +5.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM

That 7.8 jobs number literally might have saved Obama’s Presidency.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM

troll alert! Sound the horn!! Dire?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Gumby was busy being poked. So while he got to post in between his pokings, he did not have enough time to tell you that Barry was up 10 in the week prior to the debate, before he went back to his bent over position.

bayview on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Allah you need to update with the linky re dear leader actually thought he won the debate h/t pork chop

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

yeah. I read that. Major facepalm. Make it a thread or something.

Barry thought he won the debate.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2215173/Obama-believed-beaten-Romney-Denver-debate-ignoring-advice-aides.html#ixzz28piyPmDT

H/T Pork-Chop

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM

I believe this is the 1st time Romney has led the RCP average.

SouthernGent on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Actually, it has happens once before: October 9, 2011. Also with a 0.7% lead.

Exactly one year ago…weird!

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM

the cnn poll may be correct or not but it is within margin of error.

based on what we’ve been saying about internals of polls before debate i think we either have to accept a pollsters internals wether we like the poll or not.

RCP average shows national and state polls swinging to Romney.

we cannot just fixate on one poll

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 4:12 PM

How does that saying y’all use go?

Eleventy!!?!!

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:12 PM

troll alert! Sound the horn!! Dire?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM

He will be here in 13.72 minutes. Approximately there abouts.

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Some poor troll shot his wad on one poll and ruined his pathetic little career today. Lol!

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:06 PM

From 2007:

Tom Blumer’s original observation that “Clinton-friendly CNN and its new partner (ORC) appear to have the opportunity, and motivation, for manipulating its polling topics and results” is correct.

It is not illegitimate to raise questions and suggest scenarios re Vinod Gupta’s CNN connection, when this connection stands both to (1) unfairly benefit a presidential candidate who already is on Gupta’s philanthropic payroll to the tune of $9M and to
(2) influence the outcome of an American presidential election.

-snip-

infoUSA bought ORC in December 2006 for a sum that represented
more than 30% of its net sales for 2006 — and yet, except for four buried press releases, ORC appears nowhere on infoUSA’s Web site. Definitely a red flag on transparency.

A lack of transparency generally goes with a desire to control, and information in the SEC report ORC filed when it was acquired by infoUSA does nothing to upset that balance.

The SEC report shows that ORC was initially merged with Spirit Acquisition, an infoUSA shadow company that, it appears, was set up to facilitate the sale. The 2-person board of Spirit consisted
of Vinod Gupta and Fred Vakili — infoUSA’s Web site lists Vakili as infoUSA’s “Chief Administrative Officer & Corporate Secretary.”

At the merger, ORC’s articles of incorporation and bylaws were replaced by Spirit’s articles of incorporation and bylaws.

ORC’s 7-member board of directors was replaced by Spirit’s board — which is to say, Gupta and Vakili.

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Allah, this would be the time to check the oil level and all the seals on the HumpBot so it can be fired up on Nov 6 without a malfunction incident.

NapaConservative on October 9, 2012 at 4:14 PM

My boycott of RCP lasted…9 days.
I wish I’d held out longer, but it’s really different today!

22044 on October 9, 2012 at 4:14 PM

The Catapillar D-13 BullDozer has dropped the blade,
and Liberal Progressive Utopians are in the direct
path of a Mittens Mauling……

…..oh da horror!!

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 4:14 PM

I know they’ll try but can the 47% comment really fly at either debate?

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Did you start drinkin’ early today, Allah? Because this isn’t the Eeyore-Allah we have come to know and love.

novaculus on October 9, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Gonna be a cascade of tears flowing here tomorrow if Ras shows Obama back in the lead, like I think he will.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Gallup.com…

“Obama’s slight 49% to 46% seven-day lead among registered voters is just about where it was in the seven days prior to the debate. This trend suggests that Romney’s impressive debate performance — 72% of debate watchers said he did the better job — may not have a lasting impact. Additionally, Friday’s generally positive jobs report from the government, showing that unemployment fell below 8% for the first time since January 2009, may have helped Obama’s standing.

Although Gallup’s main focus is on seven-day rolling averages, a breakdown of interviewing over shorter periods can be helpful in understanding the short-term impact of events like conventions and debates. As Gallup reported Monday, Romney gained ground among registered voters in the immediate aftermath of his Oct. 3 debate, moving from a five-point deficit prior to the debate to a tie in the three days that immediately followed. Most of that gain was driven by substantial Romney leads in the Thursday and Friday tracking.

Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday — the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney’s debate “bounce” may be fading.”

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:15 PM

“Gonna be a cascade of tears flowing here tomorrow if Ras shows Obama back in the lead, like I think he will.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 4:15 PM’

Absolutely true, and if they follow Gallup, that’s going to happen tomorrow.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Yes, I realize you’ve seen one or both of these numbers elsewhere, but I don’t care. I want in on this bloggy Fun Bunch celebration too, damn it.
=============

How about a teasing of a Melting Stripper Bunny,then,haha,ahem:)

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 4:16 PM

In his bent over position while being poked, gumby did not notice the headline of CNN story about the poll in OH is ” the race tightens in Ohio”. The tightening is in contrast to gumby’s orifice.

bayview on October 9, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Great idea napacon

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Quick CNN OH:

D34/R32/I34

Obama wins voters under 50, voters over 50, and wins among independents. Seriously. Have fun…

joejm65 on October 9, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Absolutely true, and if they follow Gallup, that’s going to happen tomorrow.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:16 PM

You’re saying Obama was in the lead today on Rasmussen?

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 4:13 PM

Timely reminder there Del. Thanks! Do we know yet if the troll reads?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

If you think that CNN Ohio poll is good news, then by all means celebrate those brutal results for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Caution, people, the polls are all over the place, I am becoming skeptical, these people are crazy, they should stop polling every second of their sorry existence, especially when so few real voters/peope actually take these polls…9% answer these polls apparently…John Podhoretz said this much in his article in NY Post, this pollingplaooza is sheer insanity, mesnt only to confuse. Guess the only good thing is that they are confusing and confounding both sides at this particular moment. Charlie Cook whom I respect greatly (his was the closest prediction of the GOP seats grab in 2010) also sounds v. cautious, if not downright raining on our parade, here. and he’s no partisan hack or dim. I know we have the momentum on our side but don’t know if it’s enough.

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

..sorry, could you repeat that a little louder? I cannot hear clearly through the thick walls of my shelter where I am hiding from the anticipated effects of the ’7.8% atom bomb’.

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Who kidnapped Eeyore?

aunursa on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

.
His cat has taken him hostage and is keeping him locked in a closet until Obama concedes on November 6th.

It is a good cat but it had reached the breaking point over AP’s incessant “Eeyore” braying.

The “Key footnote” was inserted by the cat as part of an agreement with a negotiator to insure Hot Air trolls are kept pacified.

PolAgnostic on October 9, 2012 at 4:20 PM

This poor little thing is just pathetic. Funny though!

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:20 PM

If you think that CNN Ohio poll is good news, then by all means celebrate those brutal results for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

You mean the one where Obama leads Romney by 11% among RV?

Talk about a heavy D sample.

sentinelrules on October 9, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Nate Silver, this one’s for you!

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Nate Silver lost any relevance and any respect I had for him today. People would laugh at him if he was on a message board touting his “secret” election model, instead people pay attention to him because he works for the New York Times.

midgeorgian on October 9, 2012 at 4:21 PM

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

I feel completely panicked and scared. What ever can we do?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:21 PM

If you think that CNN Ohio poll is good news, then by all means celebrate those brutal results for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

..no doubt you and your Guatemalan pool-boy lover will be cracking a couple of jeroboams of bubbly on election eve in anticipation of Obama’s ’7.8% atom bomb’.

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

In his bent over position while being poked, gumby did not notice the headline of CNN story about the poll in OH is ” the race tightens in Ohio”. The tightening is in contrast to gumby’s orifice.

bayview on October 9, 2012 at 4:16 PM

I didn’t want to feed the troll, but even after Gallup has swtiched to a likely voter model (in which Romney is ahead), he’s using the registered voter results to somehow justify his erroneous conclusions.

right of the dial on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

How much does this little twerp get for posting this garbage? I’m assuming it’s by the post. Guess it’s little “job” will end in Nov. and it can go back to popping it’s zits.

BeachBum on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Meanwhile back at Team o’s Ranch,with the KOOL_AID Embargo,
Hopeys is pulling out da stops…..and implores..”obsessiveness”
=================================================================

On a visit to pick up California votes and cash, President Obama said in San Francisco on Monday night that

“I very much intend to win this election”

and implored supporters to redouble their efforts
***************************************************

because
*********

“we’re only going to do it

if every

body is almost obsessive for the next 29 days.”
********************************************************
********************************************************
More…)

Updated 11:55 a.m., Tuesday, October 9, 2012
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Obama-asks-supporters-to-be-obsessive-3930415.php

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Nate Silver lost any relevance and any respect I had for him today. People would laugh at him if he was on a message board touting his “secret” election model, instead people pay attention to him because he works for the New York Times.

midgeorgian on October 9, 2012 at 4:21 P

Charlie Cook is kinda saying the same thing here. And he’s no partisan hack, he’s as independent as they come.

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:24 PM

feel completely panicked and scared. What ever can we do?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:21 PM

..my recommendation: junp into bed, assume the prenatal position, and turn your electric blanket up to ’9′.

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:24 PM

And it will be gone tomorrow if Gallup has Obama +5.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:11 PM

RCP won’t be using that poll. Now that Gallup is releasing a daily tracker of likely voters RCP is ignoring the registered voters tracker.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:25 PM

If you think that CNN Ohio poll is good news, then by all means celebrate those brutal results for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

..no doubt you and your Guatemalan pool-boy lover will be cracking a couple of jeroboams of bubbly on election eve in anticipation of Obama’s ’7.8% atom bomb’.

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

What Guatemalan would that be?

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Caution, people, the polls are all over the place, I am becoming skeptical

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Just look at the unbiased average.

NapaConservative on October 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012

…ok…ok!…you can get more dumb fluke #’s since YOU want to keep feeding it’s orgasims!…dumb fluke #39…so now, you have two chances to win… in the drawing for the genital warts pool!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM

I didn’t want to feed the troll, but even after Gallup has swtiched to a likely voter model (in which Romney is ahead), he’s using the registered voter results to somehow justify his erroneous conclusions.

right of the dial on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

He would use a dead voter model if he could find one, but Democrats keep that polling data secret.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

..hey, hoser, I was waitin’ all night last night at the border for ya. You take off?

:-D

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Done! Is thumb sucking prohibited. I’m really really scared.

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:27 PM

The Catapillar D-13 BullDozer has dropped the blade,
and Liberal Progressive Utopians are in the direct
path of a Mittens Mauling……

…..oh da horror!!

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 4:14 PM

hahaha. Nice one. I picture you driving that BullDozer wearing a Yellow Hard Hat. I’ll hop in my Steamroller and join you.

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:27 PM

CNN/ORC POLL October 5-8 OHIO
Likely Voters’ Choice for President: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (MoE +/-3.5% pts)

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

D+2 (34-32) with indies waaaay over-sampled at 34, and Zero leading those indies 50-46 (with a MOE of 6!)? And no info on their demographics about how much they oversampled women? Aaaand, only 83% of Republicans say they have their “mind made up” compared to 95% of dems?

Shirley, you jest. You’re drunk at the bar, it’s 1:45 a.m., and CNN looks like a sweet, sweet supermodel.

Rational Thought on October 9, 2012 at 4:27 PM

He would use a dead voter model if he could find one, but Democrats keep that polling data secret.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM

..I think he was using the Guatemalan pool-boy model.

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:28 PM

I know we have the momentum on our side but don’t know if it’s enough.

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:19 PM

.
Completely agree with your cautionary regarding the 9% – I was saying the same when Romney was down in the polls.

My issue with the media obsession regarding polling is there have always been a lot of empirical data points used by professionals to judge where things stand that are being completely ignored this time around.

Why are they being ignored?

Because they indicate a wave election is building for Republicans and that is not something the LSM wants to publicize.

PolAgnostic on October 9, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Harry Reid here all you wingnut vermin losers!!!

There are no opponents to Obama in America except a bunch of vastly outnumbered racists. Obama can not lose the election! Never! No, fellow Democrats I am not scared of losing and neither should you be! Search for the truth. I tell you things and I always ask you to verify what I say. I told you yesterday that there are no dissatisfied people in America. You can go and visit any state at all. No dissatisfied person there. No one at all. There are only supporters of Barack Obama except for a few crazy constitution clingers. Everything is okay.

By Obama, I think Obama will win in a 57 state landslide. Any talk of his defeat is merely an insane prattle. The fact is that as soon as Obama’s opponents reach the voting booths, we will besiege them and slaughter them. Wherever Obama’s opponents go in the New Socialist Worker’s Paradise of Amerika they will find themselves encircled by billions of Obama supporters. The Tea Partiers will be burnt. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan will be buried. We are going to tackle them. We are going to hit them with shoes! Obama’s opponents will soon be committing suicide by the thousands as they realize that Obama can not lose.

VorDaj on October 9, 2012 at 4:28 PM

My Tarot reader says that Obama will get a huge boost among the too-young-to-vote crowd after the Nickelodeon interview is aired, thereby pulling out the first 57-state landslide in US history.

Liam on October 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

According to Gallup, after losing his five-point lead last week, Obama’s back out to a five-point lead in their daily tracker over the past 36 hours.

Gosh, I wonder if there are any Republican-leaning demographic groups that a poll taken on Sunday would tend to undersample. Hmm, nope, can’t think of any offhand. We should absolutely trust a one-day poll rather than a one-week moving average.

Fabozz on October 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:25 PM

…have you shown your wife pictures of what you could be catching?

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

We’ve all felt Romney was doing better than the polling suggested all along, but there’s a reason these trolls are panicked. The idea of Obama’s inevitability has been destroyed. 60-65% of the public thought Obama would win the election before the debate. Not surprisingly, that same number thought Obama would win the debates as well. Now that Obama has been exposed, he’s in big trouble. In addition, everyone knows the characterization of Romney as a bumbling idiot was a complete lie. The debate performance and the ensuing polls have validated Romney, and people now believe he can win. That’s Obama’s worst nightmare and, short of a catastrophic misstep by Romney, there’s really nothing Obama can do. Their narrative is up in smoke.

RepublicanInMA on October 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Millions of out of work people don’t give a rat’s hind end about a fake 7.8% rate.

They know its way way higher.

Hope and Change failed.

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Why isn’t CNN’s Ohio poll given it’s own blog entry?

It has a very fair sample, too!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

CNN/ORC POLL October 5-8 OHIO
Likely Voters’ Choice for President: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (MoE +/-3.5% pts)

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Previous CNN polls put the margin at around 10. So, you agree that Romney is up 6 since the last one they did?

Is this really what you meant to say?

lorien1973 on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Mittmania is runnin’ wild!

Mark1971 on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

The War Planner on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

…oh no!…dumb fluke #41…and yes…you can catch it off of airplane seats!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

The oly poll that matters will be held Novermber 6th, 2012. And, that one is looking very good for Mitt Romney.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

I posted this on the other polling thread, but its kind of dead.

I hate to destroy Rassmussen, but his SEVEN day swing state tracking poll is pure bull crap.

The key to understand a 7 day tracking poll is to know that its almost impossible to have a 5 point swing. To have a +3 final result for Obama he must have a total on the plus side of atleast 18 points or 18 divided by 7 equals 2.6 rounded out to +3. And for Romney to have a plus 2 he must have a total of plus 11 divided by 7 equals +1.6 rounded out to +2 for Romney.

This means that the difference between the last day removed and the newest day added is 29 points ATLEAST. Something like a +15 for Obama removed and a +14 for Romney added. Or a +19 for Obama removed and a +9 for Romney added. Does anybody believe ANY of that was even possible? And a 29 point differential is the least it could be.

This is why Gallup rarely changes more then 1-2 points the last 3 months. Either this is not a 7 day tracking poll, Rassmussen can’t add, or Rassmussen is cheating.

KMav on October 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Brat on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

Just shows how much White suburbia is on Barackabama’s mind. He really hates the White middle-class.

SouthernGent on October 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Don’t let up people – we have to keep pushing. Polls schmolls – I want a freaking landslide on the 6th.

gophergirl on October 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

right of the dial on October 9, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Just remember: If you feed it, it does more business on the rug.

novaculus on October 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

“CNN/ORC POLL October 5-8 OHIO
Likely Voters’ Choice for President: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (MoE +/-3.5% pts)

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Previous CNN polls put the margin at around 10. So, you agree that Romney is up 6 since the last one they did?

Is this really what you meant to say?

lorien1973 on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM”

Yeah, Obama up 4-5 pts in Ohio seems very realistic and accurate. Obama will win the state by 2 pts in the end, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Why isn’t CNN’s Ohio poll given it’s own blog entry?

It has a very fair sample, too!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Looks like a heavy D sample to me.

And why hasn’t HotAir given the ARG Colorado poll it’s own blog entry?

sentinelrules on October 9, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Why isn’t CNN’s Ohio poll given it’s own blog entry?

It has a very fair sample, too!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

LOL

You do realize you sound really desperate, right?

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Speaking of Polling……………

Polls: Romney within striking distance of Obama in Michigan, Pennsylvania – @thehill

5 hours ago from thehill.com by editor

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/260921-polls-romney-within-striking-distance-in-michigan-pennsylvania

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Yeah, Obama up 4-5 pts in Ohio seems very realistic and accurate. Obama will win the state by 2 pts in the end, imo.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:34 PM

As long as you agree with the +6 Romney move on the poll, dude.

lorien1973 on October 9, 2012 at 4:36 PM

“Why isn’t CNN’s Ohio poll given it’s own blog entry?

It has a very fair sample, too!

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Looks like a heavy D sample to me.

And why hasn’t HotAir given the ARG Colorado poll it’s own blog entry?

sentinelrules on October 9, 2012 at 4:34 PM”

D+2 is a bad sample?

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 4:36 PM

KMav on October 9, 2012 at 4:32 PM

I think you confusing Gallup with Rasumussen. Gallup uses a 7-day, and just began their likely voter screening today.

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Rational Thought on October 9, 2012 at 4:27 PM

…that’s not Rational dumb fluke #42!

lorien1973 on October 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

…dumb fluke #43…no one’s gonna want to “hit it”!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:37 PM

…have you shown your wife pictures of what you could be catching?

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

I need to catch me a wife first. But my prospects are probably low since wymyns apparently want to exterminate all men with hair.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 4:37 PM

The Troll is here to disrupt Conservative Conversation. Period.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Speaking of Polling part deux……….

American Research Group polls show Romney leading Obama in Colorado, Ohio – @politicalwire

5 hours ago from politicalwire.com by editor

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/09/latest_swing_state_polls.html

canopfor on October 9, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Not sure why Ace and Ed/Allah can’t ban Greg/Gumby using IP address.

kevinkristy on October 9, 2012 at 4:39 PM

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