Romney up 2 in new national poll from … Daily Kos?

posted at 12:01 pm on October 9, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I have to give Markos Moulitsas credit for posting this result.  He could have taken the easy way out and had PPP release it independently.  And looking within the depths of this poll result, you have to know how much it pained him to follow through on the likely-voter survey Markos commissioned (via Twitchy):

The candidates for President are Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

Obama 47 (49)
Romney 49 (45)

That’s a pretty disastrous six-point net swing in just a week, and the first time we’ve ever had Romney in the lead. It is inline with all other national polling showing Romney making gains in the wake of his debate performance last week.

The sample is a D+3, which is on its own a reasonable model for the turnout in four weeks, but the D/R/I is 40/37/23.  That significantly undersamples independents, which becomes an issue when one sees how independents break out in the election.  Romney has a six-point lead among independents, 48/42, and that low number for Obama will become a real problem in four weeks, as late deciders usually break hard for the challenger and away from the incumbent.  Independents disapprove of Obama’s job performance by a wide margin, 34/55 (he’s at 43/53 in the overall survey), and the Democratic Party doesn’t fare well among indies either, with a 33/50 approval rating — which is, to be fair, about identical to how they view the GOP, too (33/51).  By an even wider margin, likely independent voters believe the country is on the “wrong track,” 29/62.  Those are not re-elect numbers for an incumbent who won independents by eight points in 2008.

The gender numbers aren’t looking particularly good for Obama, either.  In 2008, he won women by 13 points and edged John McCain among men by one, for a total gender gap of 14 points.  In the new PPP/dKos poll, Obama only leads among women by six, and trails among men by twelve.  That’s a -6 overall gender gap for Obama, and a 20-point reversal from 2008 … with only four weeks left to go.  Romney’s winning every income demographic except those making less than $30,000 a year, in which he’s only down by 15 points.

Most importantly, Romney’s leading in the swing states identified by PPP/dKos by five points, 51/46.  That may not be very solid — it looks like PPP used subsamples of their polling, which means the samples for those swing states had to be pretty small — but it’s not a pleasant result for Team Obama or the readers of dKos, either.  The independent demos will be more of an indicator as to what’s coming.  If Romney has a six-point lead among independents in a cycle where Republican enthusiasm is now significantly outstripping Democratic enthusiasm, Romney’s going to do better than a +2.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Excellent news on the poll!

Robots. No thought. Just do as you’re programmed. Question nothing. No thought allowed. Hot air has become the mirror to The Daily Kos. What’s left there is right here. And both equally partisan and stupid.

Enjoy your servitude. But it won’t be Obama.

And that makes it OK.

Wino on October 9, 2012 at 12:40 PM

For one thing Romney has declared he will repeal ObamunistCare, so numerous extra IRS agents and HHS paper pushers can hit the bricks.

If you vote for Obama simply because Romney hasn’t listed in painstaking detail what he will do, then I must agree with the others that you’re just a lib, mouthing off. You have to be pretty dumb to want to vote for Obama regardless, as well as deaf and blind.

OT: Gallup likely voters: R +2

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Yeah I saw things headed that way yesterday. Now if they would just use the 2010 turnout model as they should!!

dogsoldier on October 9, 2012 at 1:25 PM

RCP just flipped to Romney for the first time. And they don’t even have this poll yet.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 1:44 PM

As one of those who is not committed, I still don’t think I’ll be pulling the R lever. I truly don’t see much difference between the policies of the two candidates.

Wino on October 9, 2012 at 12:10 PM

.
I never liked big bird.

Just saying.

FlaMurph on October 9, 2012 at 2:02 PM

I’ve had a kos account for years, I just remembered. Left a lovely troll post. The meltdown is so intense over there, no trolling is even necessary though. It’s like a mass self immolation over the “one” appearing mortal.

hanzblinx on October 9, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Only by lowering taxes and reducing regulations that impede business will you encourage business expansion. Business expansion leads to jobs, which are taxed, and ultimately more tax revenue. France and Greece have not reduced taxes, nor reduced regulations, so of course they can’t grow out of it.

If you think this was a ROBOT post, then so be it.

dominigan on October 9, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Not to mention that by expanding business and jobs, not only will the tax based be broadened, but government spending on things like UE insurance and various assistance programs like foodstamps will drop as more people are employed and begin to earn more money.

right of the dial on October 9, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Hah

Schadenfreude on October 9, 2012 at 2:15 PM

I’ve had a kos account for years, I just remembered. Left a lovely troll post. The meltdown is so intense over there, no trolling is even necessary though. It’s like a mass self immolation over the “one” appearing mortal.

hanzblinx on October 9, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Whaa, stench of demoralization emanating from daily kos?? Noooo, but, but, but that bastage Romney is going to kill Big Bird….

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Let’s try this again….

Romney likes parts of Obamacare

Yep. That’s how you repeal something. You keep it.

If you vote for Obama simply because Romney hasn’t listed in painstaking detail what he will do, then I must agree with the others that you’re just a lib, mouthing off.

Go ahead and search my name. I’ve been here for four or five years. Find ONE instance where I said I’d vote for Obama. Maybe if you folks would get your heads out of your behinds, you’d be able to read better.

“Requires spending cuts of approximately $500 billion per year in 2016 assuming robust economic recovery with 4% annual growth, and reversal of irresponsible Obama-era defense cuts”

<< From Romney's campaign website.

Translation: "I'll get around to cutting spending my last year in office, as long as everything is coming up roses and the winds are from the east and it rains on Wednesday and the coin falls heads twice in a row." In other words, not a promise at all.

Fiscal conservatives see nothing to vote for with Romney.

I'll wait while one of you finds my pro-Obama post. Until then, you're all so intent on finding trolls that anyone who dares to criticize YOUR "the one" is immediately lambasted and attacked with lies and vitriol.

Where have I seen that before? Let me think… Oh, I know! Begins with "hope" and ends in "change." You've all become exactly what you claim to hate. I hope that doesn't disturb your coding. I wouldn't want a bunch of robots to crash their programs.

Wino on October 9, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Let’s try this again….

Wino on October 9, 2012 at 2:32 PM

We heard you the first time, Goebbels wino.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 2:35 PM

Fiscal conservatives see nothing to vote for with Romney.

Wino on October 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Wow, nice purple color font you’ve got there, eye-catching, it convinced me to even read your post :)…correct me if I got this wrong, but are you somehow speaking for all fiscal conservatives, or have they appointed you to speak for them? I mean last time I heard such sweeping generalitzations about one voter segment or another was from 0′s campaign who got out their way to convince us that ‘all womenz’ (or most womenz anyways) ‘see nothing to vote for with Romney ‘ to quote from you, and the latest polls say otherwise….

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Wino on October 9, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Now you are becoming redundant and you’re spamming…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Romney +0.7 on RealClearPolitics Average of polls.

First time positive!

topdog on October 9, 2012 at 2:44 PM

What? Another 7.8% Atomic Bomb?

If this keeps up, I’m gonna have to dig out my copy of “The Complete Atomic Basie” for dinnertime music tonight…

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Cozmo! Long time, no see! Have you found an argument yet or are you still just blathering incomprehensibly? Oh… just re-read your post. I see you’re still “In Search Of…”

Still waiting for the pro-Obama post I’ve been accused of for daring not to worship at the feet of “the right one.”

Wino on October 9, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Still waiting for the pro-Obama post I’ve been accused of for daring not to worship at the feet of “the right one.”

Wino on October 9, 2012 at 3:15 PM

With the pap you write, you are undeserving and not worth the effort.

As many have already told you. Next time, try to be more valuable than the stuff people scrape off of their shoes after a trip to the dog park.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 3:24 PM

In 2008, he won women by 13 points and edged John McCain among men by one, for a total gender gap of 14 points.

13 – 1 = 12.

VorDaj on October 9, 2012 at 3:42 PM

VorDaj on October 9, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Its the spread honey. From 13 to -1 is 14…elementary math.

cozmo on October 9, 2012 at 3:44 PM

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