Romney takes lead in Rasmussen swing-state tracking poll, 49/46; Update: ARG puts Romney up 1 in Ohio – with a D+9 sample

posted at 11:21 am on October 9, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

We’ll have plenty of poll data today, and most of it looks impressive for Mitt Romney — including one from a surprising source, which I’ll get to later today.  Rasmussen’s swing state poll might be the most crucial for looking at the swing in the race since the debate, since Romney hasn’t had a lead in the eleven-state survey since September 19th.  Today, however, the poll shows a five-point swing since yesterday and has Romney up three, 49/46:

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. …

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s debate win last Wednesday night.

The tracking poll dropped the results from last Monday and added yesterday’s results.  That is what produced the five-point swing, and it suggests that stronger results might be on the way, as the last two pre-debate results will drop out tomorrow and Wednesday.  Obama had led in this tracking poll by as much as six points on October 1st and 4th, the latter the day after the debate and the last day with no debate-driven results.  Obama’s lead went from 6 to 5, then to 3 and a few days at 2 before today’s reversal.

The internals look pretty good for Romney, too, in this latest iteration.  He has a 10-point lead among independents at 49/39, the latter a disastrous number for an incumbent just four weeks out from the election.  Obama still leads among women, but only by five — and Romney leads among men by 11, for a +6 gender gap advantage.  Obama has large leads among voters under 40 years of age (but not a majority among 30-39YOs at 49/37), while Romney wins solid majorities in all other age demos at 40 and above.

Moreover, Romney now leads by six among those “certain” of their vote, at 46/40.  The soft numbers for Obama may be a real problem if he can’t dent Romney’s polling surge, as a preference cascade may wipe out the 7% that are leaning towards him now in these swing states.  Romney does even better among independents in this measure, leading 43/31 among those “certain” of their choice.  Romney has a 14-point lead among “certain” men (and a majority at 50/36), and only a three-point deficit among “certain” women, 41/44.

Those “certain” numbers will be key to watch over the next four weeks.  If Romney can start solidifying support while Obama remains in the low 40s (or lower), the break of undecideds might be overwhelming.

Update: A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample.  The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30; in 2010, it was 36/37/28.  Among independents, Romney leads by 20 points, 57/37; Obama won them by 8 in Ohio in 2008, 52/44.  I would assume that a proper balance that included more independents would extend Romney’s lead significantly.

 


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…shovel ready!…here comes the sh…!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 11:22 AM

…anybody responding to the trolls deserver to get genital warts…ok?

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Happy days are here again. :)

Old Fritz on October 9, 2012 at 11:24 AM

…deserve

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Keep working hard to GOTV. This is encouraging, though.

22044 on October 9, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Enjoy reading this RNC Memo on the state of the race in the swing states…

This past weekend produced another successful Super Saturday for the GOP. More than 30,000 volunteers participated and made 2.5 million volunteer voter contacts in a single day, bringing the week’s total to 5 million contacts.

As of Saturday, Republicans had requested 656,813 absentee ballots in Colorado, compared to Democrats’ 627,064, according to records from the Secretary of State. In North Carolina, more than 52% of all ballot requests have come from Republicans, whereas Democrats account for only 27% of requests and unaffiliated voters, 21%.

In Florida, 43.4% of absentee ballot requests came from Republicans, 39% from Democrats. Republicans have an even larger advantage in returned absentee ballots: 45.5% to 38%.

In Nevada, absentee ballot requests favor Republicans 43.9% to 39.2%, with some smaller GOP-leaning counties not reporting. We expect our advantage in Nevada therefore to be even larger.

More at the link…

aunursa on October 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Some good poll results for Romney – no doubt.
And reason for concern for Obama campaign.
But as always with polls, a little perspective keeps the corks (properly) un-popped.
You may dismiss Nate Silver because he’s NY Times
but it’s pretty even handed stuff…and excellent analysis of this stuff. (Though you for sure won’t like his current forecast.)
As much as I’ve found the poll tracking here for the most part pointless and accompanied by too much hyper-ventilating about the attendant ‘results’, in these final weeks of the campaign – sober readings of this stuff is a little more meaningful than it’s been for the last year.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Looks optimistic, but Team USA’s Ryder Cup collapse is still fresh in my mind.

HopeHeFails on October 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

It might be just a bounce, and a lot can happen, but man it’s nice to have some positive polling data for a change. The numbers among indies are very telling…if Romney sustains that, Obama’s in trouble.

changer1701 on October 9, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Don’t worry Barry. I have it on good word that there is a place for you in the Chavez administration.

Oil Can on October 9, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Andrew Sullivan is having a nervous breakdown, so I’m feelin’ pretty good. :-)

Punchenko on October 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Californians interested in joining the Romney campaign’s weekend deployments to Reno or Las Vegas can get more information and register at this link.

aunursa on October 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Surge or bounce?

Looks like a surge.

One can analyze poll internals and find fault, but when almost all move dramatically in the same direction something substantial is happening.

Read’em and weep, trolls.

farsighted on October 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Yes! Yes! Yeeeesss! Why not get all giddy about the polls now? It’s a great trend and one barring an October surprise (Lord) shows the way to victory for Romney. Just keep doing what you are doing Mitt–good debates with strong rebuttals and vision–and you are home free!

milemarker2020 on October 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

1. The polls will naturally start producing more honest results the closer we get to the election which is why I never pay them much mind until we get close to the election.

2. No Polling entity wants to end up being way off on their predictions on election day no matter how much they want to push a meme.

HotAirian on October 9, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Your headline says 49/46 but the text says 49/47. Which is it?

mitchellvii on October 9, 2012 at 11:30 AM

If the trend continues the Dear Leader will fear for his future. That means Wag the Dog, people–a massive military strike to reverse momentum and swing a few million ignoramus voters. I don’t say it’s inevitable–he may be so awash in his own self-esteem to think he can pull it out–but it is very, very possible. I’d assign it a 50% chance. The target is immaterial from his point of view (disgusting in itself, I know). Probably Iran nuke sites.

spiritof61 on October 9, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Andrew Sullivan is having a nervous breakdown, so I’m feelin’ pretty good. :-)

Punchenko on October 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Yes, but when is he not having one?

Nick_Angel on October 9, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Chris Mathews indicates the special tingle up the leg is gone.

hanzblinx on October 9, 2012 at 11:32 AM

How long before Democrats and the MSM throw Obama overboard and start trying to save the Senate?

Think about this. Why WOULD Obama want to be POTUS the next 4 years? The Middle East about to blow up into war, the economy about to go off a fiscal cliff and this time he would come to office with an unfriendly Congress.

It is clear just watching him that his head may be in it but his heart is not.

mitchellvii on October 9, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Have been sensing landslide for some time now, but find myself of late leaning toward bloodbath. Probably won’t happen, but wouldn’t it be nice?

TXUS on October 9, 2012 at 11:33 AM

1) Larry Sabato called the election LAST WEEK, RethugliKKKans, Obama Wins!
2) In-trade currently says that Obama will win 95-1; and
3) Nate Silver says that Obama has 124% of winning the election.

Read and Weep Wingnutz//s

JFKY on October 9, 2012 at 11:34 AM

…However, in the next debate on October 21, Reagan effectively neutralized the issue by quipping, “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” Mondale himself laughed at the joke, and later recalled that:

“If TV can tell the truth, as you say it can, you’ll see that I was smiling. But I think if you come in close, you’ll see some tears coming down because I knew he had gotten me there. That was really the end of my campaign that night, I think. I told my wife the campaign was over, and it was.”

TxAnn56 on October 9, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Miraculous 7.8%: U3
U3:7.8% Atomic Bomb

How’s that working out for the “one” G&P

“Math is hard, science is harder and research is hardest of all”

chemman on October 9, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Swing state numbers look good for Romney, but the individual state polls don’t look nearly as good.

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Well, Gumby?

itsspideyman on October 9, 2012 at 11:36 AM

SURGE as undecideds and tepid supporters rush to Romney after debate.

tim c on October 9, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Keep fighting. We can’t let bad poll numbers dishearten us, or allow good poll numbers to make us complacent.

Red Cloud on October 9, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Barry, I suggest you think about your new home in your “native” Hawaii as you prep for the next debate.

Just imagine. . . no more pressure. No more questions. Just you, the waves, the kids. . . paradise.

RedNewEnglander on October 9, 2012 at 11:37 AM

You may dismiss Nate Silver because he’s NY Times –
but it’s pretty even handed stuff…and excellent analysis of this stuff. (Though you for sure won’t like his current forecast.)

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

His forecast is based on a model that he plugs current polling into, so of course it’ll still predict an Obama victory…he was leading in those polls. Same with Intrade, which people love to cite as some sort of predictor…they’re betting based on that polling. But, IF this is a surge and if Romney establishes small but sustainable leads, Silver’s predictions will change.

changer1701 on October 9, 2012 at 11:37 AM

It started as a bounce.

VMI helped to sustain it.

Obama talking about the debate performance and Big Bird… is helping to push it along.

Obama has cracked 50% for a week in months.

With all that time to find a theme, set a tone, push a narrative… all they gave out was shiny objects. It is now too late to set a tone, find a theme and get a narrative going. Expect more shiny objects from at home and abroad, and not one, single one of them will make a dime’s worth of difference. If Obama wanted to stop the surge, he could just stop pushing it along… if he hasn’t stopped complaining in a day or two, then the toast will be nearly done.

ajacksonian on October 9, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Desperate causes desperate measures look for the venom to spout out about Romneys faith

Conservative4ev on October 9, 2012 at 11:38 AM

You may dismiss Nate Silver because he’s NY Times –
but it’s pretty even handed stuff…and excellent analysis of this stuff. (Though you for sure won’t like his current forecast.)
As much as I’ve found the poll tracking here for the most part pointless and accompanied by too much hyper-ventilating about the attendant ‘results’, in these final weeks of the campaign – sober readings of this stuff is a little more meaningful than it’s been for the last year.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

And you probably dismiss the Univ of Colorado voting model. (Though you for sure won’t like their current forecast)

So what is your point.

chemman on October 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Obama could pull out of the race citing health reasons and Nate Silver would still have him up 6 in Ohio

Capitalist Infidel on October 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

…anybody responding to the trolls deserver to get genital warts…ok?

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 11:24 AM

I pledge not to respond!!! ‘genital warts’ convinced me, though I think it’s a bit too harsh :)..I remember seeing some horrible pics of those in one of my sister’s med school textbooks, as the big sis of tnree male siblings she always made sure to leave those anatomy and med coursework scattered throughout the house (as if randomly and unintentional), so that we take a good look and get horrified and frightened :)…well, it worked…I am a hypochondriac to this day :)…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

It is clear just watching him that his head may be in it but his heart is not.

mitchellvii on October 9, 2012 at 11:33 AM

I disagree. I think he does want it again. After all, he hasn’t done anything but party for the last four years while the country burned, why would the next four be any different for him?

What I think we are seeing is his disdain that he even has to make a case for his reelection. When he is on the campaign trail, he is happy because he is in front of adoring crowds.

At the debate, he stood alone and had to actually answer for his inaction and incompetence with no one fainting and fawning all over him.

He definitely likes the perks, the adulation and the stature.

Jvette on October 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

We want the dems to think it’s a bounce, and just ignore it…

right2bright on October 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Cautiously optimistic

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Same with Intrade, which people love to cite as some sort of predictor…they’re betting based on that polling.

Yup. I signed up. It’s not as easy as signing up for eBay for example (they require multiple forms of proof of your identity, etc. Clearly racists!) Then, to send them money to bid on markets, you have to either do a bank transfer or send them an old fashioned check. They are based in Ireland which prohibits the simple credit card transaction for us U.S. folks. The bank transfer would have taken about 4 days and the check as much as two weeks!

I was just looking to put a quick $100 on Mitt when Barky was at 79% but, in the end, the whole transfer of funds thing was just too much of a pain. :(

RedNewEnglander on October 9, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Debate not was not the beginning of a bounce. It was the start of a public surge.

nitzsche on October 9, 2012 at 11:42 AM

don’t get cocky, kid!

ted c on October 9, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Obama talking big bird is a disaster for him, I like it second I just watched a video of mitt calling a volunteer kid in Ohio who group knocked on the millionth door for the campaign.

Conservative4ev on October 9, 2012 at 11:42 AM

ARG is not a good polling firm, but here is their new Ohio poll…

Ohio
  Obama Romney Other Undecided
Likely voters 47% 48% 1% 4%
Democrats (42%) 88% 7% 1% 4%
Republicans (33%) 3% 92% - 5%
Independents (25%) 37% 57% 2% 4%
Men (48%) 46% 50% 1% 3%
Women (52%) 48% 45% 1% 6%
18 to 49 (53%) 50% 44% 1% 5%
50 and older (47%) 44% 52% 1% 3%
White (84%) 39% 56% 1% 4%
African American (11%) 95% 3% - 2%
Sep 10-12

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 11:42 AM

We’ll know how deep the ca-ca is for team Barkyboy by how many states Sheriff Joe mentions and by how many times he mentions SCRANTON during the debate.

SouthernGent on October 9, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Arab Voters Spring

portlandon on October 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Keep door knocking and calling. It’s working.

That and three more kick butt debates.

gophergirl on October 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

This only means that Romney is in the game. Now the hard work needs to be done.

Jabberwock on October 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

So, all we get from Gumby is a one-liner, with a predictable qualifier. You’d think that a person voting for Romney would be thrilled that his forecast of how the 7.8% atomic bomb would negate all of Romney’s debate surge is proving to be incorrect.

I’m not seeing any pleasure here. If the news was bad for Romney, we would have been treated to many variations on the ‘I told you so’ theme.

IamDA on October 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

The O meltdown will continue for another 28 days. Then we’ll be treated to the O lame duck administration… expect those appeals for clemency to increase exponentially… and be granted… social justice and all…

gatorboy on October 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Andrew Sullivan is having a nervous breakdown, so I’m feelin’ pretty good. :-)

Punchenko on October 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

He suffers from perpetual neurosis… his neurosis might develop into a full-fledged psychosis now :)…complete with voices in his head and all…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Gallup goes to a Likely Voter model today. That should be the big polling news of the day.

rockmom on October 9, 2012 at 11:44 AM

You know Obama’s goose is cooked when he’s lost the Kid Rock demographic.

Northwoods on October 9, 2012 at 11:45 AM

The newest Siena poll from PA shows a dead heat, more confirmation PA is in play. It’s not just the swing states that are turning against the boy king, it’s states that were not even supposed to be competitive.

Wait until Ryan wipes the floor with Biden on Thursday. There could be 50-60 million people watching that. That’ll be the knock out punch.

eyedoc on October 9, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Obama running 2 new anti-Romney ads in Oregon this week.

Why? Why is Obama spending money in “safely” blue Oregon???

portlandon on October 9, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Keep your foot on his neck Romney!

rollthedice on October 9, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Barack Obama’s biggest enemy is now Barack Obama.

Mitt Romney found some way to stop being his own worse enemy.

That latter change is the one that matters.

ajacksonian on October 9, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Last 5 Ohio polls:

Rasmussen (10/4), Obama +1
WeAskAmerica (10/4), Romney +1
Wenzel Strategies (10/4-5), Romney +1
NBC4 Columbus (10/6-7?), Obama +1
ARG (10/5-8), Rommey +1

steebo77 on October 9, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Wait until Ryan wipes the floor with Biden on Thursday. There could be 50-60 million people watching that. That’ll be the knock out punch.

eyedoc on October 9, 2012 at 11:45 AM

I think it may only get 20 30 million

Conservative4ev on October 9, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Update :

Holy cow

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 11:47 AM

I was just looking to put a quick $100 on Mitt when Barky was at 79% but, in the end, the whole transfer of funds thing was just too much of a pain. :(

RedNewEnglander on October 9, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Yeah…I have an account but haven’t done anything with it, because the process is a pain. I believe that’s courtesy of Dodd-Frank, by the way…I think that made it illegal for them to accept US cards.

changer1701 on October 9, 2012 at 11:48 AM

What’s that I smell. Hummm, smells like a

L-A-N-D-S-L-I-D-E !!!

stenwin77 on October 9, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Update: A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample. The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30; in 2010, it was 36/37/28. Among independents, Romney leads by 20 points, 57/37; Obama won them by 8 in Ohio in 2008, 52/44. I would assume that a proper balance that included more independents would extend Romney’s lead significantly.

O_O

rockmom on October 9, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Those “certain” numbers will be key to watch over the next four weeks. If Romney can start solidifying support while Obama remains in the low 40s (or lower), the break of undecideds might be overwhelming.

The undecideds are the tsunami of the red wave, just like 2010, and this election will be a redux of 2010. As long as Mitt goes BIG and not negative, the garbage from Chicago will be swept back into the gutters…

RedInMD on October 9, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Cautiously optimistic

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Same here. At this point in time, the most important thing is to keep the momentum on our side till election day…heck, it’s doable, it’s less than a month…what are they going to do, bring out their paraphernalia of black bird and magic underwear videos :)…the dims lost all credibility wiith their pathetic loser reaction after eye candy lost big in the debate.

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 11:49 AM

These numbers increase the odds of a major “commander-in-chief” October surprise.

GaltBlvnAtty on October 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

My own swing state polling averages (time-weighted), finally show Romney with enough electoral votes (275) to take the Presidency:

State / Rolling Average / Latest Poll / Electoral Votes
Arizona / Romney +8.8% / Oct 2 / 11
Missouri / Romney +8.6% / Oct 2 / 10
North Carolina / Romney +4.2% / Oct 7 / 15
Colorado / Romney +2.1% / Oct 7 / 9
Florida / Romney +2.0% / Oct 4 / 29
National (tracking only) / Romney +0.6% / Oct 7 / N/A
National (w/ tracking) / Romney +0.6% / Oct 7 / N/A
Virginia / Romney +0.5% / Oct 5 / 13
National (w/o tracking) / Romney +0.3% / Oct 7 / N/A
Ohio / Romney +0.0% / Oct 6 / 18
Iowa / Obama +2.0% / Oct 7 / 6
Nevada / Obama +3.2% / Oct 3 / 6
Pennsylvania / Obama +3.5% / Oct 5 / 20
Michigan / Obama +4.0% / Oct 5 / 16
New Hampshire / Obama +4.5% / Sep 28 / 4
Wisconsin / Obama +5.3% / Oct 5 / 10
Minnesota / Obama +6.8% / Sep 18 / 10
Oregon / Obama +6.8% / Sep 11 / 7
New Mexico / Obama +8.0% / Sep 27 / 5

steebo77 on October 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Is that all you got. that was whimpier than BIG BIRD

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

If the trend continues the Dear Leader will fear for his future. That means Wag the Dog, people–a massive military strike to reverse momentum and swing a few million ignoramus voters. I don’t say it’s inevitable–he may be so awash in his own self-esteem to think he can pull it out–but it is very, very possible. I’d assign it a 50% chance. The target is immaterial from his point of view (disgusting in itself, I know). Probably Iran nuke sites.

spiritof61 on October 9, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Ace’s place has a thread up discussing rumors that Barry is putting finishing touches on a military strike in Libya to avenge our losses there.
If it happens this close to elections, I think the voting public will see it for what it really is.

a capella on October 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

+1:Portlandon

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Wow. We can’t get cocky! But the good news keeps rolling!

22044 on October 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Sep 10-12

gumbyandpokey on October 9, 2012 at 11:42 AM

D+9 poll when actual registration research shows R+3.5 for this election cycle. That may drop to R=D by voting day. Makes this a worthless poll on top of being nearly a month ago.

Math is hard, science is harder and research is hardest of all”

So by all means continue to try and awe us with your research skills.

chemman on October 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Wait until Ryan wipes the floor with Biden on Thursday. There could be 50-60 million people watching that. That’ll be the knock out punch.

eyedoc on October 9, 2012 at 11:45 AM

I think it may only get 20 30 million

Conservative4ev on October 9, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Normally that’s what I would assume, but I think it will be quite a bit higher due to the ass whupping that Obama took from Romney in the first debate. At least I hope so.

eyedoc on October 9, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Gumbo hardest hit!

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Obama is in big trouble here in Ohio. Anecdotally, I live in Dayton in an area of upper income folks who are pretty conservative and all signs on my block are Romney. An Obama canvasser came around this weekend and admitted that his job got a lot tougher after the debate. The debate has really changed the game. I think a lot of folks were just waiting to see Mitt in action and now that he blew Obama away they have completely swung to him. This is very reminiscent of Reagan/Carter.

Ta111 on October 9, 2012 at 11:52 AM

So by all means continue to try and awe us with your research skills.

chemman on October 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Atomic bomb :)

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 11:52 AM

A trolls entire career here at HA ruined over one poll. How’d that suit there gumbo?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Stock market down again today. Things aren’t looking good for Obama!

tkyang99 on October 9, 2012 at 11:52 AM

yedoc on October 9, 2012 at 11:45 AM

There could be 70 to 80 million people watching the next President debate with Romney vs Obama.

Oil Can on October 9, 2012 at 11:52 AM

C-BS Radio “News” has a revolutionary new way to report these latest numbers.

They’re not.

In both the 10 AM EDT and 11 AM EDT top of the hour “newscasts”, there was absolutely no mention of the campaign at all. None.

Dr. Goebbels is looking up in approval.

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 11:53 AM

suit you there

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Yepper jimver

cmsinaz on October 9, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Napalm?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 11:53 AM

OT: Sesame Street has asked the Obama campaign to take the Big Bird ad down. Heh.

changer1701 on October 9, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Obama running 2 new anti-Romney ads in Oregon this week.

Why? Why is Obama spending money in “safely” blue Oregon???

portlandon on October 9, 2012 at 11:45 AM

That’s good news, but maybe they’re sensing, as am I, that no state is really “safe” for them. Polls are meaningful only as a trend measurement and the trend is starting to go against them, and they know it. At the moment they start hitting the air hard in CA we’ll know the race is over. Watch for that about a week out from election day, if not a little sooner.

TXUS on October 9, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Internal Obama Campaign Memo:

Time to send Big Bird on vacation to Hawaii; replace with fierce Cookie Monster who can be trusted by American voters to Kill Bin Laden.

Buy Danish on October 9, 2012 at 11:54 AM

So what is your point.

chemman on October 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Same point most are making (aside from KOOLAID2 – who doesn’t make points).
Polling is and will remain fluid. No denying that’s there lots out today more welcome by the Romney than Obama campaigns.
But the bounce/surge is solely from the debate, and the election is not being held today.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 11:54 AM

in 2010, it was 36/37/28.

Thank you, Ed. That sample would show Romney with a significant lead. Which is what I’ve been harping on…

But this is only a snapshot! Like the dKOS/SEIU and PEW.

dogsoldier on October 9, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Oh ARG, you guys are kiiinda kooky. XD

Seriously though, ARG was found to be one of the more accurate pollsters of 2008, but their samples can be pretty confusing sometimes. XD

WolvenOne on October 9, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Omg, those numbers for independents compared to 2008 have to be DEVASTATING to Chris Matthews…

and Obama.

nitzsche on October 9, 2012 at 11:54 AM

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

…I think genital warts was what afflicted Dr. Tesla and explained the behavior at times…that’s why I called for such extreme measurments on troll responders!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 11:55 AM

The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30

this poll is acting stupidly

runner on October 9, 2012 at 11:56 AM

‘Chicago-Style’ politics is soon to go Prime Time. Get ready. It’s coming.

Carnac on October 9, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Time for BO to wag the dog in Libya. Bomb’s away!

Buy Danish on October 9, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Update: A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample.

Just to rub salt in someone’s wound.

NBC4 poll of likely Ohio voters out today: Obama 45, Romney 44

Flora Duh on October 9, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now “certain” they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent (40%) are certain they will vote for the president.

Rassmussen (10/09/2012)

Fleuries on October 9, 2012 at 11:58 AM

gerrym51 on October 9, 2012 at 11:50 AM

…I’m talking warts now!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Looks optimistic, but Team USA’s Ryder Cup collapse is still fresh in my mind.

HopeHeFails

I was so bummed out when they lost.

When the Golf Channel was playing some reruns, a few days later, I switched the channel.

I’m disgusted with the American team.
I don’t want to even look at any of the team members and watch them deflate on Sunday again.

“Americans won’t tolerate a loser” — Gen Patton

Hope this is how Dems feel on Nov 7th.

Typicalwhitewoman on October 9, 2012 at 11:58 AM

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