Romney takes lead in Rasmussen swing-state tracking poll, 49/46; Update: ARG puts Romney up 1 in Ohio – with a D+9 sample

posted at 11:21 am on October 9, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

We’ll have plenty of poll data today, and most of it looks impressive for Mitt Romney — including one from a surprising source, which I’ll get to later today.  Rasmussen’s swing state poll might be the most crucial for looking at the swing in the race since the debate, since Romney hasn’t had a lead in the eleven-state survey since September 19th.  Today, however, the poll shows a five-point swing since yesterday and has Romney up three, 49/46:

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. …

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s debate win last Wednesday night.

The tracking poll dropped the results from last Monday and added yesterday’s results.  That is what produced the five-point swing, and it suggests that stronger results might be on the way, as the last two pre-debate results will drop out tomorrow and Wednesday.  Obama had led in this tracking poll by as much as six points on October 1st and 4th, the latter the day after the debate and the last day with no debate-driven results.  Obama’s lead went from 6 to 5, then to 3 and a few days at 2 before today’s reversal.

The internals look pretty good for Romney, too, in this latest iteration.  He has a 10-point lead among independents at 49/39, the latter a disastrous number for an incumbent just four weeks out from the election.  Obama still leads among women, but only by five — and Romney leads among men by 11, for a +6 gender gap advantage.  Obama has large leads among voters under 40 years of age (but not a majority among 30-39YOs at 49/37), while Romney wins solid majorities in all other age demos at 40 and above.

Moreover, Romney now leads by six among those “certain” of their vote, at 46/40.  The soft numbers for Obama may be a real problem if he can’t dent Romney’s polling surge, as a preference cascade may wipe out the 7% that are leaning towards him now in these swing states.  Romney does even better among independents in this measure, leading 43/31 among those “certain” of their choice.  Romney has a 14-point lead among “certain” men (and a majority at 50/36), and only a three-point deficit among “certain” women, 41/44.

Those “certain” numbers will be key to watch over the next four weeks.  If Romney can start solidifying support while Obama remains in the low 40s (or lower), the break of undecideds might be overwhelming.

Update: A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample.  The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30; in 2010, it was 36/37/28.  Among independents, Romney leads by 20 points, 57/37; Obama won them by 8 in Ohio in 2008, 52/44.  I would assume that a proper balance that included more independents would extend Romney’s lead significantly.

 


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From yesterday:

Gonna be a cascade of tears flowing here tomorrow if Ras shows Obama back in the lead, like I think he will.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Monday was equal to ATOMIC BOMB Saturday and NUCLEAR WARHEAD Sunday – put together.

2 point movement in Swing State 7 day poll is the real news. That’s massive.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Its unfortunate that Mitt has focused on the economy and that he hasnt been focusing on abortion, gay sex and contraception. Maybe then he could of been competitive and perhaps been in the race.

/ true socon

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Are the SoCon idiots taking notes at what is happening? Are they observing how Mitt is attracting the indies and middle of the roaders?

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 1:45 PM

That’s impossible! Friday’s 7.8% ATOMIC BOMB made any effect from the debate magically disappear.

Flora Duh on October 9, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Its because the Mittomic Bomb is bigger than that silly 7.8% firecracker.

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Notice how he made a quick exit? And he has the nerve to call others coward.

Flora Duh on October 9, 2012 at 1:49 PM

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Wassamatter? Can’t stop lashing out?

Here, skippy. Have a Kleenex.

kingsjester on October 9, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Are the SoCon idiots taking notes at what is happening? Are they observing how Mitt is attracting the indies and middle of the roaders?

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 1:45 PM

That is sooooooo 6 months ago.

Flora Duh on October 9, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Not a good day to be a Democrat. Joe Biden has his work cut out for him.

Punchenko on October 9, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Oh, come on now.
What could possibly go wrong with Biden?

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Now tha was funny :)… Ok, I take back the infantile comment about you. Anyone with a sense of humor deserves to be taken seriously :)…

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Romney just took the lead in the RCP average… for the first time ever.

Also touched 42 on InTrade on heavy trading – Up 12+%.
Obama is in a freefall.

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 1:54 PM

I’m returning to Reno in three weeks to walk more precincts. We will win Nevada.

aunursa on October 9, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Romney campaign is recruiting busloads of CA supporters to hit NV every weekend – Reno and LV, all expenses paid, transportation included, hit the streets and get out the Romney vote.

Wish I could do it. I’ll just keep donating.

peski on October 9, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Want to have some fun? visit buggers and read some comments. Total mental dissonance.

filetandrelease on October 9, 2012 at 1:55 PM

…HELLO JACKAZZ!…I never whine!…I don’t talk to you since there is nothing “substantive” about you…and if you’re yanking ANY pigtails…they’re in YOUR crotch area!

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 1:25 PM

You KNOW you sometimes come off JUST a little BIT crazy.

I enjoy it.
Not sure about everyone else.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 1:57 PM

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Thank you.
Appreciate the reassessment.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Too bad Axelfraud can’t round up all those ACORN operatives that he used last time.
Though, if he called his boss, maybe he could get them all pardoned for a last-minute push?

Another Drew on October 9, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Romney has now edged ahead in the RCP Average – which still includes Gallup, Politico, and CNN polls from before the debate.

If it’s a “bounce”, it’s a superball.

peski on October 9, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Are the SoCon idiots taking notes at what is happening? Are they observing how Mitt is attracting the indies and middle of the roaders?

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Yawn.

Without support from “SoCon Idiots”, Romney would not even be in contention.

Norwegian on October 9, 2012 at 2:03 PM

The best thing about these polls is that Team Obama will panic. Obama and Biden will go overboard in attack mode in the debates, further hurting Obama’s favorable ratings.

midgeorgian on October 9, 2012 at 2:11 PM

The electorate is the same as 2010 – a center-right coalition of energized GOP base joined by a heavy majority of Independents.

All voters needed was a reason to consider Romney a competent alternative and the dam broke.

http://thecitizenpamphleteer.wordpress.com/2012/10/08/the-media-dam-is-breaking/

Bart DePalma on October 9, 2012 at 2:12 PM

A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample.

Wow!

Romney has now edged ahead in the RCP Average – which still includes Gallup, Politico, and CNN polls from before the debate.

Wow again!

Jackalope on October 9, 2012 at 2:16 PM

IBD/TIPP Tracking is Romney +2 as well.

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 2:25 PM

GumbyPokeme
“it is very important to note that Carter was stuck at 47 in all of his polling and that is why he lost to Reagan while Obama is at 49 in all his polls”
September, 2012

New Gallup poll – Likely Voters
Romney 49%
Obama 47%

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

sentinelrules on October 9, 2012 at 1:02 PM

AirForceCane on October 9, 2012 at 2:28 PM

I don,t think this election is going to be that close.I believe it,s going to be a blowout one way or the other ether Obama or Romney getting over 300 elector votes.If the truly undecided break for Romney like history says undecided this late mostly vote for the challenger.Romney will win big if not then Obama will win big.

logman1 on October 9, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Someone needs to file a missing troll report for gumbyandpokey….where did he go?

tkyang99 on October 9, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Back to his seminar dispatcher for a new round of talking points.

Right Mover on October 9, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Where is gumby? I noticed that since all of his “predictions” have failed, he’s MIA..

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Get this. Romney leads IBD/TIPP Poll by 2 points with a +8 Dem sample!!!

He leads with Independents by 18 points and only wins poll by 2?????

Wow.

mitchellvii on October 9, 2012 at 2:33 PM

logman1 on October 9, 2012 at 2:30 PM

WHAT ABOUT GARY JOHNSON!?!?!?!

-FloatingTurd, Dante

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Where is gumby? I noticed that since all of his “predictions” have failed, he’s MIA..

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Appearing soon on a milk carton near you.

HTL on October 9, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Notice how he made a quick exit? And he has the nerve to call others coward.

Flora Duh on October 9, 2012 at 1:49 PM

I’m sure he’ll be back gloating that Obama is up 6 in CT.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 2:39 PM

Where is gumby? I noticed that since all of his “predictions” have failed, he’s MIA..

wargamer6 on October 9, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Gumby and Pokey are hanging from clay ropes in the bathroom of a Motel 6. Life without Obama just isn’t worth living.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Some good poll results for Romney – no doubt.
And reason for concern for Obama campaign.
But as always with polls, a little perspective keeps the corks (properly) un-popped.
You may dismiss Nate Silver because he’s NY Times –
but it’s pretty even handed stuff…and excellent analysis of this stuff. (Though you for sure won’t like his current forecast.)
As much as I’ve found the poll tracking here for the most part pointless and accompanied by too much hyper-ventilating about the attendant ‘results’, in these final weeks of the campaign – sober readings of this stuff is a little more meaningful than it’s been for the last year.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Polls are meaningless and Nate Silver is an overrated left wing hack who under estimated the Republican gains in 2010 by almost 20 seats in the House.

The most two important metrics that determine who is going to win and who is going to lose the elections are the following:

1. The percentage of total Obama voters in 2008 who would stay home in 2012.

2. The percentage of Obama “White Voters” in 2008 who would switch to Romney in 2012.

If only 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 stay home in 2012 combined with only 10% of Obama “White Voters” in 2008 switching to Romney in 2012 then Obama is certain to lose the elections. The Math cannot be challenged here.

mnjg on October 9, 2012 at 2:45 PM

I have thought before this that the stubbornness in Obama’s numbers were that his advertising had made people at least doubt Romney and make them ask themselves they need to know more about him before they switch or commit. I think that explains why 70 million people watched the debate. They wanted to see Romney against Obama one-on-one and judge for themselves. That has happened and now it will be much harder for Obama to continue his cartoon character of Romney because now it feels more like political lies.

Conan on October 9, 2012 at 12:12 PM

This is exactly what I think, too. And there is also the momentum of “nothing succeeds like success” at work also, boosting Romney. Everyone loves a winner.

HOWEVER, we cannot underestimate the Dem ability to cheat. They are already suppressing military ballots. They have and will again fill voter rolls with dead people and cartoon characters and position thugs outside polling places to intimidate Romney voters. And in states where they have managed to stall/overturn voter ID, they will bus in illegals. If it’s close, they will “find” votes in the trunks of cars. We need a landslide in order to avoid found ballots, lawsuits and recounts. People who live in swing states, PLEASE, put your boots on the ground and go door to door. Our country depends on you.

idalily on October 9, 2012 at 2:51 PM

Intrade still has Obama at over 60% though…is there something that these “pros” know that we don’t?

tkyang99 on October 9, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Intrade still has Obama at over 60% though…is there something that these “pros” know that we don’t?

tkyang99 on October 9, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Nope. They’re mostly Europeons hoping for change.

peski on October 9, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Just saw a Rasmussen poll for Connecticut .Obama 51% Romney 45% yes i know Obama is ahead by six but this is a state that sent Chris Dodd to the Sen. and for Obama to be up only by six in this very liberal state speaks volumes.

logman1 on October 9, 2012 at 3:09 PM

Obama losing in another D+8 poll.

NotCoach on October 9, 2012 at 3:13 PM

I’m returning to Reno in three weeks to walk more precincts. We will win Nevada.

aunursa on October 9, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Romney campaign is recruiting busloads of CA supporters to hit NV every weekend – Reno and LV, all expenses paid, transportation included, hit the streets and get out the Romney vote.

Wish I could do it. I’ll just keep donating.

peski on October 9, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Yepper, I know a lot of people from the Sacramento area who are going, they feel they can’t do much for Cali but they can help in NV. I too am donating till the last official day of the campaign.

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Life without Obama just isn’t worth living.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 2:41 PM

I’ve actually met (white!) people who have shrines dedicated to O’bamna in their homes. Never ever seen that in 35 years in my profession, not even with JFK or Clinton or Reagan.

And when you go to Facebook and see a page with a zillion followers called “I Love Waking Up in the Morning Knowing that Barack O’bamna is President”, sometimes you wonder if you’re woken up in Pyongyang.

Del Dolemonte on October 9, 2012 at 3:46 PM

You KNOW you sometimes come off JUST a little BIT crazy.

I enjoy it.
Not sure about everyone else.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 1:57 PM

…oh no!…I’m REAL crazy…ask my kids!…not a little bit!
…and an azz is ALWAYS an azz…unless they can be a funny azz once in a while….

Oh, come on now.
What could possibly go wrong with Biden?

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 1:18 PM

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 3:51 PM

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Polls are meaningless and Nate Silver is an overrated left wing hack who under estimated the Republican gains in 2010 by almost 20 seats in the House.

mnjg on October 9, 2012 at 2:45 PM

2010 – he predicted a Repub net gain of 55. They gained 63.
So he was off by 8.
And he was off by 1 with his Senate prediction.
Dismiss him all you want –
the guy is pretty good at this.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Looks like many rats are turning on Obama. Just read a few comments on other blogs.

Barry is getting reamed.

SparkPlug on October 9, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Gumby and Pokey are hanging from clay ropes in the bathroom of a Motel 6. Life without Obama just isn’t worth living.

Chuck Schick on October 9, 2012 at 2:41 PM

…then it should cut off JugEar’s…ears…and keep them as momentos

KOOLAID2 on October 9, 2012 at 3:56 PM

I believe what we are witnessing is a surge. Romney will be the next President of this Great Nation.

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Get this. Romney leads IBD/TIPP Poll by 2 points with a +8 Dem sample!!!

He leads with Independents by 18 points and only wins poll by 2?????

Wow.

mitchellvii on October 9, 2012 at 2:33 PM

The polls are all over the place, I am becoming skeptical, these people are crazy, they should stop polling every second of their sorry existence, especially when so few real voters/peope actually take these polls…9% answer these polls apparently…John Podhoretz said this much in his article in NY Post. Charlie Cook whom I respect greatly (his was the closest prediction of the GOP seats grab in 2010) also sounds cautious, what with thosollingpalooza. here bit of raining on our parade, eh, and he’s no partisan hack or Dim.

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:05 PM

Should reead ‘what with this pollingplaooza’….

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 4:07 PM

When Romney was at his darkest, I put $500 on inTrade, long Romney and short Obama. I’m beginning to see some movement on the boards, and I think after Wednesday I may make some profit. And since most of the traders are foreigners who know little about the race…my belief is there is an excellent profit opportunity here. Any of my fellow Hot Gas acolytes care to wager with me?

ctwelve on October 9, 2012 at 4:09 PM

I hate to destroy Rassmussen, but his SEVEN day swing state tracking poll is pure bull crap.

The key to understand a 7 day tracking poll is to know that its almost impossible to have a 5 point swing. To have a +3 final result he must have a total on the plus side of atleast 18 points or 18 divided by 7 equals +2.6 rounded out to +3. And for Romney to have a +2 he must have a total of plus 11 divided by 7 equals +1.6 rounded out to +2 for Romney.

This means that the difference between the last day removed and the newest day added is 29 points ATLEAST. Something like a +15 for Obama removed and a +14 for Romney added. Or a +19 for Obama removed and a +9 for Romney added. Does anybody believe ANY of that was even remotely possible? And a 29 point differential is the least it could be.

This is why Gallup rarely changes more then 1-2 points the last 3 months. Either this is not a 7 day tracking poll, Rassmussen can’t add, or Rassmussen is cheating.

KMav on October 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Yepper, I know a lot of people from the Sacramento area who are going, they feel they can’t do much for Cali but they can help in NV. I too am donating till the last official day of the campaign.

jimver on October 9, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Reno is not the issue. Clark County is, they are all liberal Herr Doktor supporters somehow thinking they represent GOP. And they won’t vote for Romney.

riddick on October 9, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Are the SoCon idiots taking notes at what is happening? Are they observing how Mitt is attracting the indies and middle of the roaders?

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Are the “anything goes progressiveCons” taking note that the SOCONs are holding firm with the ticket? Are you really that freaking stupid to try to drive wedges? Are you really that freaking stupid too see that we’ve all gotten here together?

Dude, I try hard to not say “hate” in the way I describe my feelings about things I see in life. But I truly with all my heart hate the crap you post here.

You try to rub our faces in our own loyalty?

First class pathetic POS.

hawkdriver on October 9, 2012 at 6:57 PM

2010 – he predicted a Repub net gain of 55. They gained 63.
So he was off by 8.
And he was off by 1 with his Senate prediction.
Dismiss him all you want –
the guy is pretty good at this.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 3:54 PM

And Rasmussen nailed the 2008 Presidential vote.

CW on October 9, 2012 at 7:21 PM

First class pathetic POS.

hawkdriver on October 9, 2012 at 6:57 PM

+1000

riddick on October 9, 2012 at 7:44 PM

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