Politico/GWU Battleground poll finds 13-point enthusiasm gap favoring GOP

posted at 10:41 am on October 8, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Politico warns that Barack Obama has a problem he never saw in 2008 — and it’s getting worse.  Mitt Romney’s likely voters are much more enthusiastic than his, and these numbers mainly came from polling data collected before Obama laid a debate egg in Denver:

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of likely voters shows ahead of Mitt Romney 49 percent to 48 percent nationally, a statistical tie and a percentage point closer than a week ago.

The head-to-head numbers have held remarkably steady through the past three weeks, but there’s been a notable shift of intensity from the Democrats to the Republicans since the party conventions over a month ago. Most of the poll’s calls were made before Romney’s strong performance at the first presidential debate in Denver.

Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats.

Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.

Intensity seems to be falling across the board among Democratic constituencies.  Only 71% of African-Americans and 70% of Latinos consider themselves “extremely likely” to vote, well below the topline of 79%, and only 68% of Obama’s key 2008 demo of young voters feel the same way.  By contrast, 82% of white voters consider themselves “extremely likely” to vote, and 77% among seniors.  As James Hohmann notes, this means that Romney can do more outreach to the middle, while Obama now has to try to rally his coalition to turn out — and could turn off independents with that effort.

Other internals look bad in the poll.  Obama’s firm re-elect number on Q6 is only 46% with just four weeks to go before the election — and again, mostly from before the debate.  That’s a low number for an incumbent at this stage of the race, as undecideds usually break hard for the challenger.

That’s even more true when one takes into consideration the sample breakdown in this poll.  It has a D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8.  That’s more Democratic than 2008′s D+7, which took place in a cycle with much more Democratic enthusiasm than this poll demonstrates.  If Obama trails in a D+8 poll by 6 among the extremely likely voters with four weeks to go, he’s in deep trouble — and his debate performance certainly won’t boost him.


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That’s even more true when one takes into consideration the sample breakdown in this poll. It has a D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8. That’s more Democratic than 2008′s D+7, which took place in a cycle with much more Democratic enthusiasm than this poll demonstrates. If Obama trails in a D+8 poll by 6 among the extremely likely voters with four weeks to go, he’s in deep trouble — and his debate performance certainly won’t boost him.

You’re being kind, Ed. If that holds up through Election Day, Obama is f’ed.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 10:45 AM

I can see 1980 from my porch and I like the view :)

Skwor on October 8, 2012 at 10:46 AM

But but but … UE report, consumer confidence … but but but

/Gumme&poleme initation turned off – speaking of which – he’s really focused on buts, isn’t he?

PolAgnostic on October 8, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Landslide.

The Count on October 8, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I usually dont give a damn about polls, but if even their fantasy polls with D+890474 show us winning… thats big!

Valkyriepundit on October 8, 2012 at 10:47 AM

and another pollster for sleazy Eric Holder to sue.

viking01 on October 8, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Romney’s foreign policy speech is coming up at 11:20 at VMI.

http://www.c-span.org/Live-Video/C-SPAN/

I think this is well-timed to keep the momentum going and continue to rattle BO.

C’mon, Mitt! Knock it out of the park again!

Cody1991 on October 8, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Time for the MSM to step it up. ABC is doing its bit by featuring this puff piece.

Drained Brain on October 8, 2012 at 10:48 AM

GumbyoneTrick….. come on ….spin this please.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 10:49 AM

It’s not time for me to end my boycott of RCP, but that day may come sooner rather than later.

22044 on October 8, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Remember, trolls, I don’t have to be excited; I just have to show up.

CurtZHP on October 8, 2012 at 10:50 AM

You’re being kind, Ed. If that holds up through Election Day, Obama is f’ed.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Fine with me. He’s been doing that to us for four years. Now it’s his turn.

Cody1991 on October 8, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I’ve felt good since Chick-fil-A appreciation day when the public did exactly what I expected, calmly, pre-planned, patiently and in massive numbers, and the media looked on with their mouths open and drool at the edges “Duhhhhhh. Huh? What?”

Marcus on October 8, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Most of the poll’s calls were made before Romney’s strong performance at the first presidential debate in Denver.

Interesting.

BTW they include a whopping 322 pages of their polling data.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 10:52 AM

I ask ALL functioning fellow alcoholics on Hot Air to send in $25 to give up just one bottle of booze for the month and send it in to Mitt today!

Typicalwhitewoman on October 8, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Very encouraging news.

I think there has been too much happiness around here, but this makes me . . . happy.

WannabeAnglican on October 8, 2012 at 10:55 AM

My testosterone is exploding

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 10:55 AM

D+8. That’s more Democratic than 2008′s D+7

With the “enthusiasm” excuse out the window, I’m looking forward to hearing how the pollsters and media stooges explain the sample gap now. Mine shaft gap maybe.

forest on October 8, 2012 at 10:58 AM

/Gumme&poleme initation turned off – speaking of which – he’s really focused on buts, isn’t he?

PolAgnostic on October 8, 2012 at 10:46 AM

…no…poles

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 10:58 AM

What’s the solution?

More Biden.

budfox on October 8, 2012 at 10:59 AM

D+8? He’s losing with D+8?

If this holds for another week or two Obama will know for sure that he is well and truly Fluked. And nobody deserved it more.

29 Days.

spiritof61 on October 8, 2012 at 11:00 AM

GumbyoneTrick….. come on ….spin this please.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 10:49 AM

…dude?

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

What’s the solution?

More Biden.

budfox on October 8, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Biden will prepare more than any VP in the modern era – just like Obama did (don’t miss it)

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Just for curiosity’s sake, is anyone polling the bluest of blue states of New York and California?

Just to see if Obama is losing any ground there as well.

$6.00 has got to have some of them upset.

CableDude on October 8, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Keep pushing. Today’s speech should help. He’ll definitely sound more presidential than the little big eared pissant.

gophergirl on October 8, 2012 at 11:04 AM

If Obama trails in a D+8 poll by 6 among the extremely likely voters with four weeks to go, he’s in deep trouble — and his debate performance certainly won’t boost him.

.
The SCOAMF is on a ballistic trajectory …

… and has now passed apogee.

When the debate effect hits, that will be rear-entry.

;)

PolAgnostic on October 8, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Ed,

Can we have an open thread for Romney’s speech, please?

Cody1991 on October 8, 2012 at 11:06 AM

So you guys want to get excited by a poll that is hopelessly out of date since it came before the ATOMIC BOMB 7.8 number, which Rasmussen said on Fox this morning was the turning point in Obama’s rising approval rating and poll numbers?

Whatever floats your boat.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Just to see if Obama is losing any ground there as well.

$6.00 has got to have some of them upset.

CableDude on October 8, 2012 at 11:03 AM

$5/gallon has people upset but I can tell you that everyone I know who voted and slobbered over Obama in 2008 has either said they are voting for Romney or will not vote. I even know a rabid lefty who has registered indy after being a life long Dem (due entirely to the “you didn’t build that” comment)….and even said he would register Republican if Romney wipes the floor with Obama in next debate

Ditkaca on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Ed, I’ll take “Blog Headlines that Make Gummypoke Sh!t His Pants” for $600.

hillsoftx on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Wow.
Now g&p has become farcical.
Or maybe he’s always been that way & I just realized it.

22044 on October 8, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Ed,

Can we have an open thread for Romney’s speech, please?

Cody1991 on October 8, 2012 at 11:06 AM

+1

22044 on October 8, 2012 at 11:11 AM

…no…poles

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 10:58 AM


Nit picking …

He keeps poles in the same place as his buts, doesn’t he?
I’m pretty sure thats wheere he pulls all of his polling data from just before he throws it up here as a comment.

;->

PolAgnostic on October 8, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Romney is CRUSHING Obama with independents 51-35

In 2008, President Barack Obama won the independent vote over John McCain by a margin of eight points, 52-44. This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35.

Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 11:11 AM

ATOMIC BOMB 7.8 number, which Rasmussen said on Fox this morning was the turning point in Obama’s rising approval rating and poll numbers?

Whatever floats your boat.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

1 mo. out of 46 below 8%, u must be so proud…maybe momma let u sleep in the hammock tonite rather than the dungeon….

hillsoftx on October 8, 2012 at 11:12 AM

hopeyandchangey going all angryed on us. A hilarious sight. The mask comes off and the underlying ObamaBot is revealed.

HumpBot Salvation on October 8, 2012 at 11:14 AM

…Obama laid a debate egg in Denver…

LOL! Great line Ed.

lucyvanpelt on October 8, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Ed,

Can we have an open thread for Romney’s speech, please?

Cody1991 on October 8, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Ditto .

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Romney speech here.

MontanaMmmm on October 8, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Wow.
Now g&p has become farcical.
Or maybe he’s always been that way & I just realized it.

22044 on October 8, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Y’know, like we have HAL, methinks we should start using GAP … Like the one between his ears.
????

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Some Best of the dishonest Obummer troll:

I’m voting for Romney, but am not really a supporter of his.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I’m voting for the less of two evils, the liberal who is less liberal than the other guy.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 11:19 AM

I can’t wait to express my heartfelt thanks to Obama for screwing up the economy, our foreign policy, lying to us and partying it up in the WH for the last 4 years.

claudius on October 8, 2012 at 11:19 AM

New thread for Romney’s speech!

Cody1991 on October 8, 2012 at 11:19 AM

What’s the solution?

More Biden.

budfox on October 8, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Biden will prepare more than any VP in the modern era – just like Obama did (don’t miss it)

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 11:03 AM

i wouldn’t ‘misunderestimate’ Biden :), he’s a patented idiot, no doubt, but even he can stuff his dunder head with info in the days before the debate (like a crash course :) and learn a whole bunch of sentences by heart, then throw them in there as expert knoweldge, with a l’il help from the moderator, and thr media pretending they didn’t nptice and saying the next day that nobody won, or that it was a tie…..I am a bit more worried about Ryan coz he is an honest man and a straight debater and he knows his figures, but O’Biden will do the ‘we’re on the side of the poor’ demagoguing rebuttal, plus he will probably repeat ad nauseam the 5 trillion in tax lie…I am sure insane uncle Joe can hold his own for an hour, and not make any major/huge, typically Biden gaffe for the duration of the debate…maybe some minor ones, but those won’t even be mentioned in the media the next day, right…

jimver on October 8, 2012 at 11:20 AM

So you guys want to get excited by a poll that is hopelessly out of date since it came before the ATOMIC BOMB 7.8 number, which Rasmussen said on Fox this morning was the turning point in Obama’s rising approval rating and poll numbers?

Whatever floats your boat.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Atomic Bomb alright. 4 years and he is right back where he started from. And all he had to do to get there was have the largest increase in the national debt in our country’s history and make sure that over 20 million Americans are un or under employed. Not to mention that inflation is at an all time high AND the average salary of those that do have a job are down.

What a great job he’s done! /s

CableDude on October 8, 2012 at 11:20 AM

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Yeah, I like GAP.

A+

22044 on October 8, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Open thread now up! Heading over there

22044 on October 8, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I’m voting for Romney, but am not really a supporter of his.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I’m voting for the less of two evils, the liberal who is less liberal than the other guy.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:13 AM

7.8 number

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Hard to believe that a non-Romney supporter would trumpet a Statistical Anomaly like that?

It’s almost like you want to believe it’s real.

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 11:24 AM

So you guys want to get excited by a poll that is hopelessly out of date since it came before the ATOMIC BOMB 7.8 number, which Rasmussen said on Fox this morning was the turning point in Obama’s rising approval rating and poll numbers?

Whatever floats your boat.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

7.8% unemployment is an atomic bomb number?

Riddle me this, Yoda, if the economy really added 873,000 jobs in September — which would be the biggest one month job increase in 29 years (and in November 1983 the annualised GDP was 8.5% while it is a mere 1.3% today) — but employers only reported an additional 114,000 jobs last month, why isn’t the IRS all over those 759,000 people who told the BLS on the telephone that they had found work because someone isn’t paying payroll taxes and meeting other reporting requirements?

Also, didn’t the Obama administration promise that, if we passed the Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Stimulus Act of 2009, unemployment would be 7.8% in September 2009 and 5.6% in September 2012?

Lastly, it’s not 1940 and Obama is no FDR.

Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 11:25 AM

If you’ve lost Politico. . .

Knott Buyinit on October 8, 2012 at 11:26 AM

hillsoftx on October 8, 2012 at 11:12 AM

…dumb fluke #8
(:->)

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:28 AM

CableDude on October 8, 2012 at 11:20 AM

…dumb fluke #9

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Most of this survey was conducted before the debate, Oct. 1-4. I’d imagine the enthusiasm gap has grown even wider now.

vamoose on October 8, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 11:25 AM

…dumb fluke #10
(:->)

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Politico might just be figuring this out (or just now admitting it), but Romney has had a double-digit lead in enthusiasm for several months now.

This election, like the last, will be all about turnout. And it’s going to turn out a lot differently this time around.

logis on October 8, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Politico warns that Barack Obama has a problem he never saw in 2008 — and it’s getting worse.

He saw it in 2010.

Hell, he even made the problem (with the generous assistance of Pelosi and Reid).

Alberta_Patriot on October 8, 2012 at 11:37 AM

So you guys want to get excited by a poll that is hopelessly out of date since it came before the ATOMIC BOMB 7.8 number, which Rasmussen said on Fox this morning was the turning point in Obama’s rising approval rating and poll numbers?

Whatever floats your boat.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

If they were my sales numbers after 4 years I would be fired

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I’m thinking that Holder, Jackson, Chu, and Solis (to name only four) have some trusted staffers evaluating the document-shredding and hard-disc-destruction capacities of their departments.

JEM on October 8, 2012 at 11:45 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Claim: Obama campaign illegally solicited foreign donors via social media website
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/08/claim-obama-campaign-illegally-solicited-foreign-donors-via-social-media-website/

President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign has been soliciting foreigners for donations, an explosive report from the conservative Government Accountability Institute (GAI) shows. Those foreign donors are allegedly visiting the Obama campaign’s donation solicitation Web pages through a social media website the campaign controls, and through an outside website that serves mostly Internet users from outside the United States.

Federal law prohibits ”a foreign national, directly or indirectly,” from making “a contribution or donation of money or other thing of value … in connection with a Federal, State, or local election. The same section of law makes it a federal crime to “solicit, accept, or receive” such campaign contributions.

Bad news for gumby

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 11:48 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Miraculous7.8 number on Friday
Atomic Bomb 7.8 number on Monday

24 million plus un/under employed and you think manipulation of the U3 number is something great. You do know the U6 number didn’t budge?
You aren’t just warped you are mentally ill.

chemman on October 8, 2012 at 11:54 AM

CableDude on October 8, 2012 at 11:20 AM

…dumb fluke #9

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:29 AM

You missed the sarcasm tag.

CableDude on October 8, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Another home run for Romney at VMI! Keep it going!!

Deano1952 on October 8, 2012 at 12:07 PM

chemman on October 8, 2012 at 11:54 AM

…dumb fluke #13

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 12:15 PM

Whatever floats your boat.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Pal, a couple of days before the election, the next round of numbers come out…you better pray it’s not back above 8%, at least if it’s not above 8%, Obama will only lose by 3%-5%, but if it’s over 8%, count on a 8-10% beating at the polls, and welcome President Mitt Romney.

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 12:16 PM

jimver on October 8, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Biden can yak all day…but Ryan is from middle America, he has lived their his whole life, and it shows, he emanates middle America.

Joe can have all of his one-liners, his supporters will love it…but I think the American people want some meat, and Ryan will have the meat. The will recognize honest, well intentioned, intelligent policies over cute sayings…this election the facts will win.

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 12:20 PM

D+8…..

Lol.

joejm65 on October 8, 2012 at 12:21 PM

That’s even more true when one takes into consideration the sample breakdown in this poll. It has a D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8.

Drudge reported that Romney was leading 51-35 among Independents in this same GWU/Battleground poll. If Indies area about 30% of the electorate, a 16-point lead translates to a lead of about 5% of the total electorate. If Romney can turn out enough Republicans to limit the partisan gap to D+3 or less, Romney can win the election.

Steve Z on October 8, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Kunte Kinte will weigh in shortly to set us all straight.

ToddPA on October 8, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Biden can yak all day…but Ryan is from middle America, he has lived their his whole life, and it shows, he emanates middle America.

Joe can have all of his one-liners, his supporters will love it…but I think the American people want some meat, and Ryan will have the meat. The will recognize honest, well intentioned, intelligent policies over cute sayings…this election the facts will win.

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 12:20 PM

in my heart I know you are right, I will still be nervous till the debate is over :-)…

jimver on October 8, 2012 at 12:34 PM

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 12:16 PM

(:->)…dumb fluke #14
(:->)

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 12:41 PM

So you guys want to get excited by a poll that is hopelessly out of date since it came before the ATOMIC BOMB 7.8 number, which Rasmussen said on Fox this morning was the turning point in Obama’s rising approval rating and poll numbers?

Whatever floats your boat.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Before the weekend, you said that the unemployment number would dominate the Sunday shows. It didn’t, the debate did.

70 million saw the debate. Relatively nobody knows about the unemployment number, just as i stated last week.

spinach.chin on October 8, 2012 at 1:27 PM

7.8 number

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Like a dog with a bone.

ShadowsPawn on October 8, 2012 at 3:51 PM

spinach.chin on October 8, 2012 at 1:27 PM

…dumb fluke #15

ShadowsPawn on October 8, 2012 at 3:51 PM

…dumb fluke #16

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 5:21 PM