HTL on October 9, 2012 at 12:14 AM

Wow! I’ve only ever taken one statistics class in my entire life, but I learned enough to be pretty darn sure that you just blew Constantine completely out of the water.

What is your plan, svs22422?

Bmore on October 8, 2012 at 11:03 PM

Well seeing as to how I was very polite to you and you never bothered to answer. I’ll take that as what it makes you appear to be. See you again. Next time I may forgo my usual politeness ass hole.

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 1:54 AM

Hey, Bmore, you know I love ya, but you might be just a bit unfair here. I dunno about you or svs, but between 11:03 PM and 1:54 AM, I usually go to bed. ;-)

In 1980, I clearly recall that Carter was ahead in the polls, and then as now, the MSM was cheerleading Carter (some things never change).”

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

In 1980, I clearly recall that Carter was ahead in the polls, and then as now, the MSM was cheerleading Carter (some things never change). But as I lived my life, the polls didn’t seem to reflect the opinions of the hundreds of people from all walks of life with whom I was dealing at the time. A significant majority couldn’t wait to see Carter voted out.

Sure enough, in the final two weeks or so before the election, there was a significant swing to Reagan and he won big.

I have the same feeling this time around. The polls don’t seem to match the true sentiment of the people around me, and I live in a dark blue district where Republicans are elected about as often as I win the lottery. Sure, there are a lot of Obama signs and stickers, but Romney signs have been springing up in yards like mushrooms growing overnight. And there are empty chairs in many yards now. Romney bumper stickers far out number Obama around the city. I haven’t seen that before.

The volunteers of 2008 with Obama signs lining the sides of the roads have not returned. This is a completely different environment than 2008 or 2010.

Here’s my take. I believe that so many people threw caution to the wind and sold their souls to support Obama in 2008, that there is a real reluctance to admit that they were scammed by a con artist. We saw some of the buyers remorse in 2010. Although it was a mid-term Congressional election, Obama’s policies were very much the issue then and Obama hasn’t pivoted as Clinton did to bring back disaffected voters.

I think this is why the polls grudingly keep Obama in the hunt or in a slight lead.

But before the sacred alter of the polling booth, I believe a large number of voters are going to confess their sins of 2008 and vote for Romney.

A lot can change in the next three and a half weeks, but I think this is shaping up as a rerun of the 1980 scenario.

I drink if Joe mentions Trains, Diner, Biker, 7/11 and anything clean and articulate.

What is your plan, svs22422?

Bmore on October 8, 2012 at 11:03 PM

Well seeing as to how I was very polite to you and you never bothered to answer. I’ll take that as what it makes you appear to be. See you again. Next time I may forgo my usual politeness ass hole.

Wow, the known universe? Really? Because I said it’s less accurate to poll 2,200 people once than to poll 13,000 people over time?

Constantine on October 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Yes, exactly. The fact that you don’t know why you’re wrong is just a testament to your level of ignorance on the subject. At a 95% confidence level, the difference in the size of the confidence interval between a sample of 2,200 and 13,000 is minimal, and one’s ability to infer anything about the population sampled is completely obscured by the effects of the changes in the set of independent variables over time.

For example, if you took a poll in 1900 that showed T.R. up over William Jennings Bryan 56/44, and another in 2012 that showed Romney up 60/40 over Obumbles, you cannot say that in 1956 the mean results were Romney 30, T.R. 28, Bryan 22, Obumbles 20, and that your confidence interval is narrower for that combined result than for either survey independently.

f sheep!!

svs22422 on October 8, 2012 at 8:22 PM

…wow!…all I asked you was if you had just awaken from a deep sh!t…and now you’re into bestiality?…wow!

midgeorgian on October 8, 2012 at 8:04 PM

…dumb fluke #30

no wonder the GOP is shrinking. sorry for my FU spelling and punctuation!!

svs22422 on October 8, 2012 at 10:26 PM

…wow!….you actually call your peni$…”the GOP”!…that’s giving it an unusual name!

You have no credibility here. I’ve taken you on dozens of time, but you skip away, tra-la-la.
John the Libertarian on October 8, 2012 at 11:31 PM

The kid took a merciless beating tonight, he’s down for the count.

Anybody have anything substantive to say? CW seems to be tapped out.

Constantine on October 8, 2012 at 10:13 PM

You have no credibility here. I’ve taken you on dozens of time, but you skip away, tra-la-la.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 11:12 PM

I think that’s about right. Has lorien met up with her yet? ; )

Normally I would agree with you on that CW. I am kinda smitten with this new girl. She seems awfully sweet. ; ) A bit naive, but hey, that ain’t always a bad thing.

Bmore on October 8, 2012

Seems kind of odd she comes here wanting substance yet exhibiting one herself. BTW I don’t believe she wants to actually discuss anything really. She just chooses posts that she can use to avoid doing just that.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 10:59 PM

Normally I would agree with you on that CW. I am kinda smitten with this new girl. She seems awfully sweet. ; ) A bit naive, but hey, that ain’t always a bad thing.