Pew poll: Romney erases eight-point deficit, now leads by four among likely voters

posted at 4:53 pm on October 8, 2012 by Allahpundit

From a 51/43 lead for O last month to a 49/45 lead for Mitt now. Remember when the media said the debates won’t matter?

Most exciting poll of the last year? Or most exciting poll of the last four years?

Romney now ties Obama in being regarded as a strong leader and runs virtually even with the president in willingness to work with leaders of the other party. And by a 47% to 40% margin, voters pick Romney as the candidate who has new ideas

Romney has made progress on the issues. He and Obama now run about even on dealing with health care, Medicare, foreign policy and taxes. Obama led on most of these issues by significant margins in September. Romney also holds a significant 49% to 41% advantage on improving the job situation, despite the fact that most of the interviewing was conducted after the October jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate falling below 8%…

By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin.

We’ve come a long, long way when the avatar of Hopenchange is a distant second on the question of which candidate represents “new ideas.” The polling on jobs is significant too, not only on its own terms but because some of this data was compiled over the weekend, after the news about Friday’s “good” unemployment numbers broke. In fact, among swing voters, 54 percent now say they agree with the statement “Obama doesn’t know how to turn the economy around” versus just 39 percent who disagree. If O can’t put a dent in that this month, he’s in trouble, especially since those numbers partly reflect a “good” jobs report.

Some of Mitt’s improvement here is mind-boggling. Note the amazing shift in women and voters aged 18-49, in particular:

Romney’s favorable rating is now at 50 percent, up five points since last month and one point higher than the guy who’s banking on his alleged likability gap to push him over the edge in a close race. In fact, Mitt rates higher than O even though swing voters are far more likely to say that Obama “connects well with ordinary Americans.” Evidently, Romney cut so impressive a figure at the debate that voters like him slightly more than Obama notwithstanding the fabled “who’d you rather have a beer with?” test.

The one caveat here is the sample. Among registered voters, it’s 34.7R/34D/31.3I; among likelies, it’s probably a few points more Republican than that. Romney’s pollster and Scott Rasmussen have each said they’re expecting a sample of D+3 or so on election day, so this is a rare poll that’s actually a bit redder than it should be — although even that’s a testament to Romney’s debate performance. Party ID tends to shift a bit as each side builds momentum; that’s why the samples after the Democratic convention were a little bluer than usual. What’s happening here, I think, is that some chunk of the audience that watched the debate was sufficiently impressed by Mitt that they’re now identifying as Republican this week. If Ryan does well on Thursday and Romney follows through in his last two debates, maybe that identification will solidify and we’ll get a redder turnout on November 6 than even Team Mitt is expecting. At the very least, perennial Republicans are so energized by Romney’s ass-kicking that they may show up in even greater numbers than expected. Check out the fundraising haul Mitt saw the first 48 hours after the Denver debacle. Good lord.

Update: With today’s Politico poll showing Obama up one and the race tied in both Rasmussen’s and Gallup’s trackers, O’s lead in the poll of polls is down to just half a point.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 6

Bishop ?
Surely not !
;-)

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Preference cascade, apparently.

AcidReflux on October 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

“8 letters – LANDSLIDE”

-gum me and poke me

NapaConservative on October 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Wow, I even beat good old GAP !!

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

While this sounds like good news, I would hesitate to put too much faith in a poll that has a 12-point swing in just a few weeks.

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

The American people know a loser when they see it for their own eyes.

rubberneck on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

KuntaKinte inconsolable.

stvnscott on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Humpbot forecasted

22044 on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

I’m sure gumby will be along shortly to tell us that this will all be reversed by 7.8% unemployment.

Count to 10 on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

7.8% Atomic Bomb.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Good news!

That being said, can we all ignore GumbyPokey and let him soil himself in that tiny bubble that he lives in?

JPeterman on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

It’s only going to keep getting better. Or worse, depending on your weltanschauung.

Akzed on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

I’m glad Team O spent so many millions painting Romney as a monster, all to be washed away in less than 90 minutes.

Karma, you dolts. You reap what you sow.

tru2tx on October 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Note the amazing shift in women and voters aged 18-49, in particular:

People want a leader, not a manger over the bad times. There’s a huge difference between the two.

SouthernGent on October 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Blowout.

Everyone vote, and take a buddy.

John_Locke on October 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Evidently, Romney cut so impressive a figure at the debate that voters like him slightly more than Obama notwithstanding the fabled “who’d you rather have a beer with?” test.

Is Mitt even allowed to have beer? Anyway, I think this poll is probably oversampling Republicans just a tad, but that shift among women voters even if you adjust it slightly in the Dems’ favor is devastating for Obama. If Romney can come close to breaking even with them, he’s a shoo-in on November 6 cuz you know men will break for the GOP.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Wanna see the numbers after today’s speech, before the next debate (and after that, too, of course).

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

can haz moar preference cascadez?

thirtyandseven on October 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

I blame Romney for my newly hairy palms.

lorien1973 on October 8, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Kunta Kinte’s and Kelvin Mitchell’s heads just exploded.

UltimateBob on October 8, 2012 at 4:59 PM

“8 letters – LANDSLIDE ATOMIC BOMB”

-gum me and poke me

NapaConservative on October 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Fixificated.

Christien on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

ATOMIC. BOMB.

Chuck Schick on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

…it’s a shame that people go for soundbites and don’t keep themselves informed…so I guess debates DO MATTER!…that’s sort of sad that a few hours of TV makes all the difference.

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Dude,is this happening?

Smoochy32 on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Go Mitt.

Keep doing what you are doing. Just do more of it faster.

SparkPlug on October 8, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Best thing about the Pew poll with a +5 GOP turnout is the hypocritical freakout it’s causing on Twitter with Obama stooges like Chuck Todd.
Who amazingly enough had no issues with D+8 polls or 873,000 magic jobs created a 4 days ago.

jjshaka on October 8, 2012 at 5:02 PM

At the very least, Republicans are so energized by Romney’s ass-kicking that GOP turnout may be even higher than expected

I think Chris Mathews is amputating his leg with Mitt’s chainsaw right ‘about now….

ted c on October 8, 2012 at 5:02 PM

where’s the NUKE, Allah? c’mon…

ted c on October 8, 2012 at 5:02 PM

I blame Romney for my newly hairy palms.

lorien1973 on October 8, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Shoulda listened to CAC about the lotion.

thirtyandseven on October 8, 2012 at 5:02 PM

People want a leader, not a manger over the bad times their lady parts. There’s a huge difference between the two.

SouthernGent on October 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Fixed for accuracy.

JPeterman on October 8, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Rasmussen September Party I’D was R + 2.6

m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

jp on October 8, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Its just a poll, go vote.

rob verdi on October 8, 2012 at 5:03 PM

This is what happens when an alpha male dominates a beta male for 90 minutes on every network.

Vashta.Nerada on October 8, 2012 at 5:03 PM

A 12-point swing in one week? Sorry, I don’t buy that. This is just setting up the ‘Comeback Kid’ narrative which will explode if Obama merely shows up at the next debate and doesn’t drool all over himself. Then, Pew will revert back to a comfy D+6-D+8. This is a joke. Don’t fall for it.

joejm65 on October 8, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Ace has the “sh!t just got real yo” video up….. that’s cause for the HA-Nuke parallel, aint’ it?

ted c on October 8, 2012 at 5:03 PM

“All trolls will be on mandatory overtime, no increase in pay” -Sith Lord Soros.

batterup on October 8, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Supposedly Kos will have the new PPP out tomorrow showing similar results.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 5:04 PM

It’s no fluke
You must rebuke
Drop a Nuke
on Obama

SparkPlug on October 8, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Bob Beckel on The Five looks like he’s been kicked in the stomach.

tru2tx on October 8, 2012 at 5:04 PM

It is more than the debate, much more. The obama team dropped that 7.8% unemployment rate, and NO ONE BELIEVED IT!!!! Not only did no one believe it, but it PISSED THEM OFF. The obama/sharia media spin machine is broken, badly, badly broken.

Rational Thought on October 8, 2012 at 5:04 PM

So…where now are these trolls with their affinity for polls? The one’s who gloried in posting every single poll showing Romney with that deficit? Hmm?

The same trolls insisting that all polls were ‘true and accurate’ and ‘all pollsters honest to a fault’ will now, doubtless, be shrieking that these polls are biased and all pollsters are nefarious persons of evil design and malicious intent!lol!

thatsafactjack on October 8, 2012 at 5:04 PM

While this sounds like good news, I would hesitate to put too much faith in a poll that has a 12-point swing in just a few weeks.

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

I’m not breaking out the champagne just yet, but I think a 12 point swing in that short a time is entirely possible.

A lot of people hate politics and don’t pay attention until the last minute – they’re not like us political junkies. We’re getting close to election day (it’s only about a month away), so “undecideds” are starting to pay attention to the debates news, etc, and are seeing 0bama flailing. That has to be moving the needle in Romney’s direction somewhat.

UltimateBob on October 8, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Best thing about the Pew poll with a +5 GOP turnout is the hypocritical freakout it’s causing on Twitter with Obama stooges like Chuck Todd.
Who amazingly enough had no issues with D+8 polls or 873,000 magic jobs created a 4 days ago.

jjshaka on October 8, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Well we don’t want skewed polls depressing turnout amongst the Democrat base. I mean that’s just wrong.

/

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Someone needs to explain to me how Romney both tied Obama and then immediately lost 5 points in Gallup on Oct. 8, 2012?

WTH?

Did someone at the WH call Gallup and threaten EVERYONE?

nitzsche on October 8, 2012 at 5:05 PM

From a 51/43 lead for O last month to a 49/45 lead for Mitt now. Remember when the media said the debates won’t matter?

Generally, debates don’t matter, but the debate was a total disaster for Obama, and you just can’t ignore it.

I hope Mitt looks at Obama in the eyes next time and tells him, “Mr. President, with all due respect, you’re way in over your head.”

El_Terrible on October 8, 2012 at 5:05 PM

so this is a rare poll that’s actually a bit redder than it should be

EVERYTHING I have read in the past 6 months points to advantage R when it comes to enthusiasm, registration, self described as Conservative versus liberal…and then there’s the pesky 2010 midterms where R’s trounced.
So other than conventional MFM meme…why would one hold the view that R+3 is unreasonable?!?

winston on October 8, 2012 at 5:05 PM

R+3 is not a realistic turnout, but hey if it freaks out the left makes my day!

opustx on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

WE can do it people, WE can do it if we vote! Gotta get rid of bho, that is the bottom line!
L

letget on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

The debate effectively neutered Obama’s meme to the voters about Romney. The second and third debates are not a time for Mitt to cruise, he needs to hammer the point to voters that he IS the only effective leader running for President. Period!

Rndguy on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Boy, if I were Obama I’d be glad that there isn’t an election coming up anytime soon….. Oh wait!

I’m telling you that these numbers will only go against Obama further if all they do is respond to Mitt Romney’s excellent speech on foreign policy at VMI with “Romney doesn’t understand how hard this diplomatting stuff is.” Was Chistopher Stevens death part of that nuanced repsonse you Barry Sotero people throwing out there to make the claim that your rat-eared idol is supersmart or something? First death of an ambassador since Carter and your guy lied about the circumstances and jetted off for fundraising parties in Vegas. Where is the nuance in that?

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

The debate gave people who were hesitant to make the switch a reason to. They may have been willing to stick with Obama, but his very poor performance gave them an excuse not to. I think it’s too late for Obama to win those voters back, even if he does better in the next to debates. They’re not going to switch again.

Obama ran as a celebrity and when this country turns on one, the fall from grace is sudden and severe. And it takes a long time to recover and make the comeback tour.

NoVAHockey on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

From a 51/43 lead for O last month to a 49/45 lead for Mitt now. Remember when the media said the debates won’t matter?

Let’s not forget that old meme that all polls are inaccurate – biased by a liberal media. This poll is as meaningless as the ones before it.

bayam on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

What happened to that atom bomb? Fizzle?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 5:07 PM

BS narrative Obama collided with unspinnable reality.

Game-changer.

novaculus on October 8, 2012 at 5:08 PM

great news, but don’t get overconfident. team obama will get more and more desperate the more it looks like they’re losing. who knows what they’ll do, we need to take caution!

Sachiko on October 8, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Update: With today’s Politico poll showing Obama up one and the race tied in both Rasmussen’s and Gallup’s trackers, O’s lead in the poll of polls is down to just half a point.

don’t worry, they’ll make up the difference in volume sales……er, wait…I thought this was a Chevy Volt thread.

ted c on October 8, 2012 at 5:08 PM

The debate effectively neutered Obama’s meme to the voters about Romney. The second and third debates are not a time for Mitt to cruise, he needs to hammer the point to voters that he IS the only effective leader running for President. Period!

Rndguy on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

I’m thinking that today’s Romney speech proves that he is not “cruising.” It was just about as brutal as a candidate can get without being accused of “meddling.”

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Why did they change their sampling to 2.5 GOP while the whole time in their past polls they had majority dem numbers

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Rational Thought on October 8, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Agree, RT !!
There are several scriptural references to how HE manages to debunk the liars, thieves, and destroyers, and those are ONLY in the ‘communication’ department !!!
A joy to watch as Mitt (and the One standing behind him) CRUSH the opposition.
That’s what caused Zero’s head to hang so low at the last debate.
Have seen it in person many times before.

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 5:09 PM

That poll had a +10 oversampling of women, and STILL Romney wins.

Women – 55%
Men – 45%

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 5:09 PM

It’s fun to see but I don’t trust Pew polls for nothing.

Rocks on October 8, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Why does Ed insist upon lying about the Gallup tracker poll? The 47-47 number only counts for the three days after the debate. The 7 day tracking poll, which only includes two days of pre-debate polling shows Obama beating Romney 50-45. In Rasmussen, Obama has gained two points from his post-debate nadir over the weekend and Rasmussen swing state polls have Obama up in some important states like Iowa and Colorado. When you combine that with this:

The one caveat here is the sample. Among registered voters, it’s 34.7R/34D/31.3I; among likelies, it’s probably a few points more Republican than that. Romney’s pollster and Scott Rasmussen have each said they’re expecting a sample of D+3 or so on election day, so this is a rare poll that’s actually a bit redder than it should be —

In what version of reality is Romney actually leading?

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Finally, a poll I like…

Khun Joe on October 8, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Someone needs to explain to me how Romney both tied Obama and then immediately lost 5 points in Gallup on Oct. 8, 2012?

WTH?

Did someone at the WH call Gallup and threaten EVERYONE?

nitzsche on October 8, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Gallup polls everything so who cares what New York and California and mass give in the number, we know the momentum is on Romneys side because Obama has the wimp factor now

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Why did they change their sampling to 2.5 GOP while the whole time in their past polls they had majority dem numbers

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Especially when conservative pollsters like Rasmussen point out that a D+3 is what will probably be the case for a national election. I think conservatives are being bamboozled.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:11 PM

The movement in the last few days is telling. Carter was ahead or tied with Reagan most of the time till the final few weeks when momentum shifted. That might be the case here.

William Amos on October 8, 2012 at 5:11 PM

The debate effectively neutered Obama’s meme to the voters about Romney. The second and third debates are not a time for Mitt to cruise, he needs to hammer the point to voters that he IS the only effective leader running for President. Period!

Rndguy on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Mitt’s foreign policy speech today was a huge step in the right direction. He nailed it, again.

Romney is running an awesome campaign lately, and shows no sign of slowing down. It’s almost as if he had an opponent who was actually putting up a good fight!

UltimateBob on October 8, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Blowout.

Everyone vote, and take a buddy.

John_Locke on October 8, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Yes. Just to be sure take two or more if you can.

Let’s finish this right. It’s just a poll and we’re now finding out they have what appears to be Chinese money coming in and who knows what else to assist.

We have to work this one to the end.

kim roy on October 8, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Let’s not forget that old meme that all polls are inaccurate – biased by a liberal media. This poll is as meaningless as the ones before it.

bayam on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

I think the point here is that, even with the ridiculous liberal bias, they can’t find ways to cover for your false idol anymore.

But then again, you knew that.

NapaConservative on October 8, 2012 at 5:11 PM

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:10 PM

What reality? Everyone else’s. Give it up, douche. You whine about an R+2ish sample, yet crow over D+14 ones?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 5:12 PM

bayam on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 5:12 PM

This poll is as meaningless as the ones before it.

bayam on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Not when you get inside a month before the election when early voting is going on. Yes, there will be some back and forth but unlike some poll in April, these polls matter and are not meaningless.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Ace has the “sh!t just got real yo” video up….. that’s cause for the HA-Nuke parallel, aint’ it?

ted c on October 8, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Ace is on a roll! Too funny. The last post is hilarious….lolololololol

Cody1991 on October 8, 2012 at 5:12 PM

So the Hope and Change garbage and #WarOnWomen ruse are backfiring? Good. Tomorrow is National Pro-life Cupcake Day. Free cupcakes to break through the pro-choice anger and ingorance.

bloggless on October 8, 2012 at 5:12 PM

It’s gotta keep moving. This CAN’T be a close race. If it is Obama will file a lawsuit in every state and we may not know the winner for weeks and they’ll shout election legitimacy claims for the next decade (I still hear crap about 2000). Come on Mitt. Make it a landslide.

Meric1837 on October 8, 2012 at 5:12 PM

So…where now are these trolls with their affinity for polls? The one’s who gloried in posting every single poll showing Romney with that deficit? Hmm?
thatsafactjack on October 8, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Still no word from GAP(between the ears) !!
Shocking, I tell ya !! ;-)

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 5:13 PM

You can tell the fear is building in the trolls.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 5:13 PM

What were the lib trolls like Gumby and LibforLife and Steve Angell just saying a few minutes ago?

Pew Poll Shows Debate
Gave Romney a Big Bounce:
Leads Obama 49-45
Atlantic Wire, by Elspeth Reeve

Mitt Romney’s debate performance pushed him into a national lead over President Obama among likely voters, Pew Research Center reports in its latest poll numbers. Romney is leading Obama 49 percent to 45 percent in a poll taken over four days after the debate last week, even though in mid-September, Obama was leading Romney by 8 percentage points. There’s a ton of good news for Romney in this poll: Two-thirds of registered voters think Romney won the debate, while only a fifth think Obama did. Romney’s favorable rating hit 50 percent among registered voters for the first time.

AirForceCane on October 8, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

That was his/her/its statement today after I schooled p&g on friday about the misuse of miraculous.

chemman on October 8, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Rush and Dick Morris is right, we will have a landslide victory.

This last debate is what happens when you have one guy WHO HAS NO EVER BEEN challenge in HIS ENTIRE LIFE.

BroncosRock on October 8, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Why does Ed insist upon lying about the Gallup tracker poll? The 47-47 number only counts for the three days after the debate. The 7 day tracking poll, which only includes two days of pre-debate polling shows Obama beating Romney 50-45.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:10 PM

Maybe you didn’t get the memo, but 0bama got his a$$ handed to him last Wednesday night in the debate with Romney. So you can pretty much throw away those pre-debate numbers and not count them in the 7 day average.

If you want to count a 7 day average, then look at the 7 days after the debate.

UltimateBob on October 8, 2012 at 5:14 PM

What reality? Everyone else’s. Give it up, douche. You whine about an R+2ish sample, yet crow over D+14 ones?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Give it up? You do realize that Libfree is a paid concern troll, right? To give it up would cause loss of income.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Someone needs to explain to me how Romney both tied Obama and then immediately lost 5 points in Gallup on Oct. 8, 2012?

WTH?

Did someone at the WH call Gallup and threaten EVERYONE?

nitzsche on October 8, 2012 at 5:05 PM

The 47-47 number that Ed keeps trumpeting is not their “national tracking poll.” Instead, it is a sliver of their poll conducted exclusively during the three days after the debate. When Obama lost quite a bit of support. The Gallup 7 day tracker reflected this dip, showing dipping to a 3 point lead from Friday through Sunday. However, nearly all the national tracking polls had Obama regaining votes on Monday, probably on the strength of the jobs report.

And notice when this Pew poll was conducted, October 4-7, or at the height of the Romney debate bounce and it oversamples Republicans (according to Rasmussen). The telling line in the Pew poll is that Romney only leads by 4 points among independents at the height of his post-debate bounce. That’s the key data point. You can believe the hype if you want to….just don’t be made on election night.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:15 PM

i guess this is a change if we believed the memes before. but most who studied the numbers didnt. the sept DRI was 31/38/31:
http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-detailed_tables/9-19-12%20Detailed%20tables.pdf
so it wasnt reral then. what we’re seeing now is the same as we saw then, when it was corrected. so nothing has changed. except that the pollsters now have to try to make good as they get closer. no surprise. no changes. why do we pretend this hasnt been known?

t8stlikchkn on October 8, 2012 at 5:15 PM

If this poll is right and Mitt is tied with Obama with women.
Its over for President Urkel.

Amadeus on October 8, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Humpbot forecasted

22044 on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Certainly don’t want to start popping the champagne corks yet – but doesn’t the Humpbot seem a tad bit insufficient for such an occasion? It’d have to be like a daisy-chain of Humpbots or something.

CycloneCDB on October 8, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Just keep in mind that polls are polls, and (it’s a horrible cliche, but…) the only one that matters is on Election Day. What does the sample data look like? Are they oversampling Republicans now to make us overconfident? I wouldn’t put anything past these folks.

Othniel on October 8, 2012 at 5:16 PM

I think the debates may have given the polling firms an opening to do an about face without being totally obvious about it. Saving face.

donkichi on October 8, 2012 at 5:16 PM

The one caveat here is the sample. Among registered voters, it’s 34.7R/34D/31.3I; among likelies, it’s probably a few points more Republican than that.

While the R oversample skews the poll towards Romney the 31.3% Independent sample is a wild card. There aren’t that many Independents.

My interpretation of the poll is that at worst Romney is tied with Obama. This is what Rasumssen and Gallup show.

But no matter what the sample, with four weeks left seems all polls are starting to trend towards Romney. That is a very good sign.

farsighted on October 8, 2012 at 5:16 PM

We also don’t go from KICKING DEMOCRATS BEHIND 2 years ago, to LOSING the White House, when DEMOCRATS have the SAME LEADERS.

BroncosRock on October 8, 2012 at 5:17 PM

If you want to count a 7 day average, then look at the 7 days after the debate.

UltimateBob on October 8, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Christ on a cracker you’re dumb. The further we get away from the debate the more the 7 day tracker reflects the post-debate state of the electorate. Look at the trend line in the 7 day tracker. A dip in support for Obama reflected over the weekend, and a return to a 5 point lead by Monday. That demonstrates the Romney post-debate bounce was factored in…and now been surpassed in the 7 day tracker. How else do you explain the post-debate Gallup trend line?

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Especially when conservative pollsters like Rasmussen point out that a D+3 is what will probably be the case for a national election. I think conservatives are being bamboozled.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:11 PM

I agree. Some has been bamboozled; but it’s not who you think it is.

lorien1973 on October 8, 2012 at 5:17 PM

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Give it up, crybaby. Obama’s been exposed as the empty suit that he is. Gallup has Romney winning the debate by 52 POINTS! Spin that, liar.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 5:17 PM

You can tell the fear is building in the trolls.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Indeed you can, spinning troll smell… pew..

ShadowsPawn on October 8, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Prediction: on election night, as soon as Ohio is called for Romney, libfreeordie/gumbypokey will immediately leave then come back later incognito with new nics.

Decoski on October 8, 2012 at 5:18 PM

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:17 PM

The more scared he gets, the more insults he throws.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 5:18 PM

But no matter what the sample, with four weeks left seems all polls are starting to trend towards Romney. That is a very good sign.

farsighted on October 8, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Except for all the polls outside of Pew released today which show a reversal of the Romney debate bounce. But sure, go with it.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 5:18 PM

If you are straight with the American people, most are willing to listen. And some may even change their minds. But being straight with the American people is a condition that has never afflicted our glorious Emperor.

JeremiahJohnson on October 8, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 6