More polls: Romney now within three points in Michigan, two in Pennsylvania

posted at 8:01 pm on October 8, 2012 by Allahpundit

In case there was any lingering shred of doubt that Romney helped himself considerably last week, this ought to finish it off. Michigan:

Obama’s 10 percentage point lead (47%-37%) in a poll conducted last month by EPIC-MRA of Lansing dropped to 3 points (48% to 45%), according to the poll of 600 likely voters conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing. The gap between Romney and Obama was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points…

“Romney has come back like gangbusters,” said EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn. “Whether or not it’s long-lasting, only time will tell, but probably the remaining debates will be key.”

Conducted in the three days following the Wednesday debate, the poll showed more than five times as many Michiganders interviewed named Romney, not Obama, as the debate’s winner. Romney’s numbers improved most dramatically among independent and undecided voters.

Worth noting: Per the article, Romney’s closing the gap on O in Michigan even while other prominent Dems are expanding their leads. Debbie Stabenow went from being 11 points up on Pete Hoekstra last month to 20 points up now. That’s in line with Obama’s 2008 margin in Michigan of 16.5 points. Fast forward four years and she’s keeping pace with that advantage while he’s … now statistically tied with his Republican challenger. Must be a lot of left-leaning independents thinking of splitting their ballot to produce a result like that.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania [PDF]:

Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in the Keystone State by 2 points (47%-45%), with 3% voting for Libertarian Candidate Gary Johnson…

Perhaps the biggest movement in SP&R’s latest poll is the increase in Mitt Romney’s favorable image in Pennsylvania. In the current poll Romney now holds a 48% to 42% favorable to unfavorable rating (or +6 positive) – making this the first time in not only our polling but virtually any other publicly-released PA poll showing the GOP challenger with a largely positive image. For instance, prior to the current poll Romney’s average favorable image in numerous statewide polls conducted by our firm from June through September was 39%, while his average unfavorable rating was 43%. So the current poll represents a 9-point jump in his positive image to the point where Romney now enjoys an even better positive image than the incumbent President, who now has a 50% favorable to 47% unfavorable rating (or only +3 positive). Plus, 76% of voters said they watched the first televised debate, with a net 2% saying they switched their vote from Obama to Romney based on what they saw. This switch, plus the increase in favorable ratings for the GOP nominee is clear evidence the debates have helped solidify the Keystone State as a tossup election in November and one well within Romney’s reach.

Caveat to this one: Susquehanna also had the the race within two points in Pennsylvania in two separate polls conducted in September. No other pollster has had the state closer than six points since September 1. On the other hand, this poll’s partisan split seems credible: It’s D+6 when voters are asked how they’re registered, which jibes with the 2008 state exit poll showing an advantage of D+7. And the surge in Romney’s favorables reflects what Pew found in its blockbuster earlier this afternoon. Go figure that after a summer of ads depicting him as a corporate pirate turned tax cheat and the most radically right-wing nominee since Goldwater, the public was pleasantly surprised to find that he’s a genial technocrat who knows his stuff better than Obama does. The Democrats set the bar low and Romney cleared it by 20 feet. That’s why his favorables have inflated.

As of early last month, Team Mitt and his conservative allies had spent next to nothing in Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Romney was talking tough about PA as recently as a week before the debate. Keep an eye out for news stories about American Crossroads, AFP, etc, starting to buy ads there; if that happens, then we’ll know that the private polling is showing the same momentum. In the meantime, enjoy the latest “celebrity” ad on behalf of the Empty Chair. I recognize exactly one person here, but who knows: Maybe there are votes to be had in the 18-29 demographic by having Z-listers making lame sight gags.


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Tim_CA on October 8, 2012 at 11:06 PM

Hi, Tim !
Born, raised in Port Huron, southern tip of Lake Huron.
Oh, that’s such a sweet location !! If you disregard the origins of the SDS, etc.
Many libbie family stil there.
Got to TX as soon as we could, but still bleed those glorious blue waters.
Still holding out hopes for our dear glorious state !!!!

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 11:52 PM

Great night here in Oakland county MI with a Ryan rally. Nobody wins in MI unless they carry Oakland co. Packed house with thousand outside wanting to get in to rally. Hoekstra IS going to win. Debbie do nothing has money advantage which means she is running lots of TV ads. Hoekstra has to get his going

Bullhead on October 8, 2012 at 11:57 PM

But what about Romneys war on women?

newportmike on October 8, 2012 at 11:58 PM

Andrew Sullivan is on suicide watch.

Did Obama Just Throw The Entire Election Away?

The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 – 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 – 45 lead. That’s a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama’s performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.

Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now. Yes, you read that right. Romney’s favorables are higher than Obama’s right now. That gender gap that was Obama’s firewall? Over in one night:

Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters.

Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever?

hepcat on October 9, 2012 at 12:07 AM

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 11:52 PM

know it well pambi…I’m on a little lake up near Mio. When we were kids….going further North to Alpena was our big thrill (the big city…lol)….had an Uncle down in detroit….still have relatives in saginaw.

Beautiful state in the summer (I’ve never been in the winter)…my wife and I don’t do snow unless ski’s and alcohol are involved.

Tim_CA on October 9, 2012 at 12:08 AM

“Keep it Growing”???????

HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAJHAHAHAHAHAHA(cough cough cough sputter sputter)HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHH (vomit)HAHAAAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!

(oh man..that was worth the small vomit…LOL!!)

Handel on October 9, 2012 at 12:18 AM

Drip…..drip…….drip

anchorman on October 9, 2012 at 12:18 AM

What ABR nutballs? I have not seen them since the debate.

JPeterman on October 8, 2012 at 8:06 PM

.
cozmo is one of the more committed Obama trolls.

besser tot als rot on October 8, 2012 at 8:27 PM
.

Why yes, yes I am.

Tol’ ya’ there were still a few ABR nutballs around.

cozmo on October 8, 2012 at 8:37 PM

.
Fell asleep in the recliner, and wake-up to this ?

? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

cozmo “comes out of the claset” (shaking head in disbelief).
If I would had known this, I would have “come-out” sooner.
.
Obama ROCKS ! . . . . . . Yeah, that’s right … ya’ heard me!

Yep coz’, if only I had known sooner. . : )

listens2glenn on October 9, 2012 at 12:27 AM

Tim_CA on October 9, 2012 at 12:08 AM

LOL.. We don’t ‘do’, snow, either, hence our move south, asap… Found heaven, here, sans the Blue waters.. Sniff.
Family built cabins in NMI, btw… Put a lot of good food on the tables .. Hehe.
Funny.. Son’s born/raised TEXAN BIL married a Highland Park gal, moved to Traverse City. Hehe.
Still have fam in PH, Saginaw, Grand Haven, Ypsilanti, etc.
C’mon, MICHIGAN !! Y’all can do sooooo much better !!!!!

pambi on October 9, 2012 at 12:52 AM

If Romney wins either of these 2 states you might as well call him President Romney.

Dollayo on October 9, 2012 at 12:56 AM

Bullhead on October 8, 2012 at 11:57 PM

Thanks for that encouraging report !!
My hopes for Michigan are as strong as the rapids of the St. Clair River !!

pambi on October 9, 2012 at 12:56 AM

Oh man… If we win either Michigan or Pennslyvania, it’s GAME OVER 4 Obama!

LurkerDood on October 9, 2012 at 1:00 AM

Dollayo on October 9, 2012 at 12:56 AM

Got that right !!
Please, Lord, let me be alive long enough to see Michigan go red !!!!!

pambi on October 9, 2012 at 1:02 AM

ellifint on October 8, 2012 at 11:29 PM

Hello ellifint! Hope all has been well with you. ; ) I’m just here waiting on that nasty troll to show back up.

Bmore on October 8, 2012 at 11:31 PM

~~~~~~~~~

Bmore, hello!! So so sorry I missed the fun! Arrrggghh, daughter and homework distracted me!! Just got back on now! Looking forward to reading all i missed! All has been well, I am so anxious to get to the polls and VOTE OUT OBAMA! Have a great night!!

ellifint on October 9, 2012 at 1:02 AM

Obama = Alvin Greene

John the Libertarian on October 9, 2012 at 1:05 AM

Dollayo on October 9, 2012 at 12:56 AM

.
Got that right !!
Please, Lord, let me be alive long enough to see Michigan go red !!!!!

pambi on October 9, 2012 at 1:02 AM

.
All we have to do is declare Detroit a separate “third-world” country, and presto . . . done.

listens2glenn on October 9, 2012 at 1:08 AM

listens2glenn on October 9, 2012 at 1:08 AM

Sigh. Truth. Sigh.

pambi on October 9, 2012 at 1:26 AM

Obama = Alvin Greene

John the Libertarian on October 9, 2012 at 1:05 AM

No.

Alvin Greene served his country. Okay, so he didn’t leave with the coveted “Honorable” discharge, but he TRIED, darn it.

Adjoran on October 9, 2012 at 2:50 AM

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 11:52 PM
know it well pambi…I’m on a little lake up near Mio. When we were kids….going further North to Alpena was our big thrill (the big city…lol)….had an Uncle down in detroit….still have relatives in saginaw.

Beautiful state in the summer (I’ve never been in the winter)…my wife and I don’t do snow unless ski’s and alcohol are involved.

Tim_CA on October 9, 2012 at 12:08 AM

WHOA – Tim, your place is about 15 miles from me !!! south/west of Mio – Cooooool !!! I love my lil’ 5 acres of peace n quiet. (Rose City/Lupton) I have given Pete some bucks CUZ I CAN NOT STAND STABINTHEBACK !!! The polls scare me. I WANT Pete Hoekstra !!! He will give us another WIN in the R column in the Senate – WE NEEED him !!!!
Kathyk

kennedyk49 on October 9, 2012 at 2:58 AM

Benghazi and the Debate started the downfall. The nail in Obama’s coffin was the ridiculous Unemployment numbers.

dddave on October 9, 2012 at 6:10 AM

These polls are without any Romney ads running in MI. Can you imagine what the polls would be with just a little bit of effort?

Same with the Senate race. Stabenow has some terrific ads running. All lies of course, but for the low information voter, they will resonate.

Hoekstra needs to get on the air and start to hammer her. The absentee ballots have started going out. I voted mine last Friday night and mailed it back on Saturday.

karenhasfreedom on October 9, 2012 at 6:34 AM

FINALLY! Foxnews is reporting via Scrolling TICKER the Michigan Story of the OBAMA subisidized LG-CHEM facility in Holland Michigan undergoing rolling furloughs due to lack of demand for Lithium ION batteries (the kind that go into electric vehicles for the TROLLS out there).

Varchild on October 8, 2012 at 8:37 PM

This deserves its own thread. What really galls me is the pointless expenditure on a greenfield facility. There are hundreds of empty, single story, high ceiling production facilities in western Michigan that are empty because the economy here has $ucked so bad and for so long. Not 20 miles away from this new facility, is the old GM stamping plant in Wyoming MI that was closed in the GM restructuring, costing thousands of jobs. They just tore down that factory and it is just an empty field now.

This is part of the $90 billion that Romney reminded Obama that he spent picking the “winners and losers, but mostly the losers” in the Green Energy industry. FoxNews had a wonderful expose on this terrible waste of money on Sunday night, narrated by Bret Baier (sp?).

Here is s link to the newstory of the furloughed battery factory that former Gov. Granholm bragged about over and over:

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/10/08/lg-plant-that-got-150m-to-make-volt-batteries-in-michigan-puts-workers-on/

karenhasfreedom on October 9, 2012 at 6:57 AM

Whatever, did you see Paul Ryan WALK OUT OF HIS INTERVIEW!!!!!1111!!1!ONE!1!1!ELEVENTY!1!!SQUIRREL!111!1!

fossten on October 9, 2012 at 7:12 AM

Anyone else fearing that Romney is peaking too early?

senrex on October 9, 2012 at 7:16 AM

Romney now needs to win both debates…..and you KNOW Obama will be flailing around next week.

And……the media will be saying OBAMA is the Comeback Kid shortly.

PappyD61 on October 9, 2012 at 7:23 AM

Eventually the hard-working, liberty-loving people of these states will wake up to the fact that they are being sold down the river by a party that does NOT have their best interests at heart. Romney hammers O in the next two debates and he may get enough of them just in time to out-poll all those the takers, the college grad unicorn fanciers and the Marxist hobbyists. It’ll be a close-run thing though. So close that the institutionalized Democrat vote fraud mechanism will kick into overdrive. Widespread reanimation. It’ll be The Election of the Walking Dead. Look for increased 100-percent Obama districts in Philly and suchlike Democrat Zombievilles. Detroit is a no-go zone now. You might as well turn all ballots there over to the Obamaphone Lady.

curved space on October 9, 2012 at 7:28 AM

karenhasfreedom on October 9, 2012 at 6:57 AM

But I thought by tearing down the stamping plant they’d have all sorts of manufacturers lining up to build new factories on the site. At least that’s what we were told.

Happy Nomad on October 9, 2012 at 7:29 AM

Anyone else fearing that Romney is peaking too early?

senrex on October 9, 2012 at 7:16 AM

No.

Romney’s problem was that he was letting Obama’s negative ads and lies define who he was. The debate gave him the opportunity to define himself and challenge the rat-eared coward directly. You’ll note that Obama, for the most part, rebutted Romney the next morning in front of a friendly group of the the unkempt rabble that show up for his rallies.

And BTW, he’s still out there using the lies about tax cuts for the wealthy that his own spokespeople walked back from.

Happy Nomad on October 9, 2012 at 7:33 AM

Add to the suicide watch list: the folks of Sirius XM Left. This morning they were crying, “Why would Americans change their minds over one little ole debate? Why? WHY?!?!” They needed a wailing baby in the background. I, however, was laughing out loud.

Grace_is_sufficient on October 9, 2012 at 8:36 AM

Why oh why oh why will they not use the 2010 turnout model? The 2008 is LUDICROUS. Every actual vote since then has been punishing for dems. They suffered one embarrassing loss after another, yet nobody calls them on it.

dogsoldier on October 9, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Benghazi and the Debate started the downfall. The nail in Obama’s coffin was the ridiculous Unemployment numbers.

dddave on October 9, 2012 at 6:10 AM

I agree and now other prominent people are calling BS on the report, keeping the story going. Zero hurt himself with that. If people start looking into how the Census bureau manipulated this, it will get very bad for Obama.

I suspect an accounting “glitch” that will get corrected before investigators can root out the source.

dogsoldier on October 9, 2012 at 8:50 AM

As a supporter of President Obama, I’m dismayed by the turn in the polling but I’m not going to claim that the numbers are cooked and that the polls are “skewed”. I take the numbers at face value. I was happy when they were in the President’s favor; I’m far from happy now.

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 9:11 AM

If people start looking into how the Census bureau manipulated this, it will get very bad for Obama.

dogsoldier on October 9, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Census Bureau?

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 9:14 AM

But I thought by tearing down the stamping plant they’d have all sorts of manufacturers lining up to build new factories on the site. At least that’s what we were told.

Happy Nomad on October 9, 2012 at 7:29 AM

Well, considering there are hundreds of empty manufacturing facilities in the area, why would anyone want to build a new factory on this old site, which is not in a great neighborhood, nor is it in an employee friendly area where someone can safely run out for a nice lunch nearby. Nope, nothing will ever be built on that site that replaces the number of jobs that were lost when Obama “saved” GM.

karenhasfreedom on October 9, 2012 at 9:15 AM

As a supporter of President Obama….

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Its so weird to see someone actually openly admit supporting someone that is such a failure.

ShadowsPawn on October 9, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Anyone else fearing that Romney is peaking too early?

senrex on October 9, 2012 at 7:16 AM

Four weeks to the election…Romney is gaining momentum.

His speech yesterday set the tone of the next couple of weeks campaign.

The campaign has been flawless…meanwhile, Obama is focusing on Big Bird…yeah, that will be a real election changer.

right2bright on October 9, 2012 at 9:35 AM

As a supporter of President Obama, I’m dismayed by the turn in the polling but I’m not going to claim that the numbers are cooked and that the polls are “skewed”. I take the numbers at face value. I was happy when they were in the President’s favor; I’m far from happy now.

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 9:11 AM

My little friend, the problem is (for you) the numbers are still “cooked”, even using dated 2004/2008 turnout numbers, Obama can’t keep the lead…and the fact as the election gets closer, the pollers have to be “more accurate” or they won’t be taken seriously.

They always become “accurate” weeks before the election so they can claim they were the ones who had it right all along.

Obama should just call it in, take the campaign money and live out the rest of his life in luxury and a lifestyle he never dreamed he could have…he can go back to his church, go back to Chicago, and be the “belle of the ball”. And watch someone build back America.

And like Carter, he will be resentful for the rest of his life, of being the worst president, the most unprepared, the least intelligent president we have ever had…good riddance.

right2bright on October 9, 2012 at 9:41 AM

right2bright on October 9, 2012 at 9:41 AM

The saddest part of this one term failure Carter 2.0 is that he will be worth hundreds of millions of dollars over the next couple of decades. Remember Clinton was worth about $150 million when Hillary had to disclose their financials so she could be Sec of State.

Obama will travel around the world and collect hundreds of millions of $$ in speaking fees.

Maybe once he is paying his 1% high income rich person tax rate, he might renounce his citizenship and go somewhere else. We can only hope.

karenhasfreedom on October 9, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Another Pennsylvania poll by Siena was just released. Romney within 3 points.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/sny_poll/PA%20Likely%20Voters%20October%202012%20Crosstabs.pdf

steebo77 on October 9, 2012 at 9:15 AM

And that is from a D+10 sample! Wasn’t PA D+7 in 2008? Not good for the one.

italianguy626 on October 9, 2012 at 10:00 AM

karenhasfreedom on October 9, 2012 at 9:55 AM

At one time I thought that…but I don’t care, Pelosi, Reid, Boehner, etc. they are all millionaires, all are living on our dime…

All I want is for Obama to get out of office so we can have our country back…

right2bright on October 9, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Its so weird to see someone actually openly admit supporting someone that is such a failure.

ShadowsPawn on October 9, 2012 at 9:31 AM

I don’t believe for a second President Obama is a failure. And even if he were, I’d rather support a failure than a political opportunist like Romney who will say anything to get elected.

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I don’t believe for a second President Obama is a failure. And even if he were, I’d rather support a failure than a political opportunist like Romney who will say anything to get elected.

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Holy chit…you’re stupid.

HumpBot Salvation on October 9, 2012 at 10:09 AM

All I want is for Obama to get out of office so we can have our country back…

right2bright on October 9, 2012 at 10:06 AM

You really think Mitt Romney’s going to ‘give you back your country’, r2b? Have you forgotten that “corporations are people too”? Romney will give the country back to the corporations, and they will make decisions “in quiet rooms” for our own good.

You don’t have to like Obama, but if you really think Romney is on the side of the average person (and forget the 47% he’s admitted he doesn’t care about) then you are a fool.

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 10:15 AM

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 10:15 AM

cozmo?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 10:26 AM

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Holy chit…you’re stupid.

HumpBot Salvation on October 9, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Bears repeating.

HumpBot Salvation on October 9, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Some good poll results for Romney – no doubt.
And reason for concern for Obama campaign.
But as always with polls, a little perspective keeps the corks (properly) un-popped.
You may dismiss Nate Silver because he’s NY Times
but it’s pretty even handed stuff…and excellent analysis of this stuff. (Though you for sure won’t like his current forecast.)
As much as I’ve found the poll tracking here for the most part pointless and accompanied by too much hyper-ventilating about the attendant ‘results’, in these final weeks of the campaign – sober readings of this stuff is a little more meaningful than it’s been for the last year.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 10:57 AM

WHOA – Tim, your place is about 15 miles from me !!! south/west of Mio – Cooooool !!! I love my lil’ 5 acres of peace n quiet. (Rose City/Lupton)

kennedyk49 on October 9, 2012 at 2:58 AM

Hey Neighbor!

Often get to Rose City! We’re really blessed to have a little slice of heaven that so few people know about. See you next summer!

Tim_CA on October 9, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I don’t believe for a second President Obama is a failure. And even if he were, I’d rather support a failure than a political opportunist like Romney who will say anything to get elected.

chumpThreads on October 9, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Hurry up and get ready! You’re gonna miss that short bus when it gets there to take you to the workshop.
And you know that nobody likes to chauffeur you around.

Solaratov on October 9, 2012 at 11:40 AM

cozmo?

Bmore on October 9, 2012 at 10:26 AM

lol….damn that was funny last night.

Tim_CA on October 9, 2012 at 1:00 PM

Desperate trolls are desperate….

fortcoins on October 9, 2012 at 1:19 PM

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