Gallup: Race all even, 47/47 …

posted at 9:21 am on October 8, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama’s debate performance wiped out a five-point lead in Gallup’s polling, and put the race into a dead heat at 47% each for Obama and Mitt Romney.  By a record amount, Romney came out the winner of the debate in the same survey, emphases mine:

An Oct. 4-5 Gallup poll finds roughly two in three Americans reporting that they watched the Oct. 3 debate, similar to what Gallup measured for each of the three 2008 presidential debates. Those who viewed the debate overwhelmingly believe Romney did a better job than Obama, 72% to 20%. Republicans were nearly unanimous in judging Romney the winner. But even Democrats rated Romney as doing a better job than Obama, 49% to 39%.

These assessments are based on interviewing conducted Thursday and Friday after the Wednesday night debate, and may reflect the impact of news stories and media commentary — which mostly declared Romney as the debate winner — as well as personal reactions to the debates as they unfolded.

Gallup has assessed opinion on who did better in most past presidential debates; some of these polls were conducted the night of the debate with pre-recruited samples of debate watchers immediately after it concluded, and some were conducted with more general samples of Americans in the days that followed the debate. Across all of the various debate-reaction polls Gallup has conducted, Romney’s 52-point win is the largest Gallup has measured. The prior largest margin was 42 points for Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush in the 1992 town hall debate.

Just as an FYI, independents closely tracked the overall result at 70/19.

That may not be the worst of the damage, either.  The meltdown on the Left over Obama’s disastrous performance continued over the weekend, and Obama surrogates got challenged on it during the Sunday talk shows.  Yuval Levin at The Corner wonders why Democrats chose to magnify the disappointment and make the conclusion more concrete:

In the days since last week’s presidential debate, the Democrats have fallen into a very peculiar sort of disarray. Four days on, they are still, and apparently on purpose, sustaining the “Romney won big” story by furiously making excuses for Obama’s poor performance. He didn’t do that badly, but listening to Obama himself, his campaign, and his bewildered surrogates the last few days you would think that Obama was utterly destroyed by some kind of evil genius who was equal parts master actor, pathological liar, and bully. You should watch the debate again to see how silly this is. And it’s hard to understand why the Democrats continue to advance this story. I bet that if you polled people today about who won and lost the debate, Obama would do even worse than he did in Wednesday night’s instant polls, thanks to his and his campaign’s continuing self flagellation.

I’d chalk that up to the power of disillusionment.  The fable of the emperor with no clothes doesn’t extend much beyond the wisdom of the young lad who points out the leader’s nakedness (and stupidity), but I would not be surprised if the coda to that story involved tar, feathers, and emperors and their sycophants, with some assembly required.  The people who bought the media line of Obama’s brilliance and rhetorical mastery have to wonder now whether they’ve been lied to all along — and that question will generate considerable anger toward those media sycophants who have been propping up this particularly naked emperor.  That may be why so many of those media sycophants have tried to get ahead of the anger by leading the charge.

Back to the main race.  Obama’s 50/45 lead from polling between 9/30-10/2 has dissipated to a 47/47 from polling between 10/4-10/6. The tracking poll shows something slightly different — but …

Gallup typically reports voter presidential preferences in seven-day rolling averages; the latest such average as of Saturday interviewing shows Obama with an average three-point edge, 49% to 46%, among registered voters. This Sept. 30-Oct. 6 field period includes three days before the Oct. 3 debate, the night of the debate itself, and three days after the debate.

Even on this basis, the race has become somewhat more competitive compared with before the first debate. Obama held four- to six-point leads in Gallup’s seven-day tracking results in the eight days prior to the Oct. 3 debate.

One more thing to keep in mind, too.  This polled registered voters, not likely voters.  Obama has had double-digit leads in some RV polls after the convention.  I suspect that the story among likely voters is quite a bit different …. and we will have some data on that later this morning.


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Yuval Levin at The Corner wonders why Democrats chose to magnify the disappointment and make the conclusion more concrete:

In the days since last week’s presidential debate, the Democrats have fallen into a very peculiar sort of disarray. Four days on, they are still, and apparently on purpose, sustaining the “Romney won big” story by furiously making excuses for Obama’s poor performance. He didn’t do that badly, but listening to Obama himself, his campaign, and his bewildered surrogates the last few days you would think that Obama was utterly destroyed by some kind of evil genius who was equal parts master actor, pathological liar, and bully. You should watch the debate again to see how silly this is. And it’s hard to understand why the Democrats continue to advance this story. I bet that if you polled people today about who won and lost the debate, Obama would do even worse than he did in Wednesday night’s instant polls, thanks to his and his campaign’s continuing self flagellation.

I’d chalk that up to the power of disillusionment.

The Dems might be cleverly playing the expectations game, lowering expectations bar for Obama in the second debate, which doubtlessly will have an enormous viewership. With the way that the Dems have been demeaning Obama’s performance, all Obama has to do is not drool on himself, and he will be named the winner of the second debate by acclaim–and he will be the comeback kid/underdog. In other words, they are setting the stage for the big comeback story. The Romney people would be wise to get out in front of this…

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Las Vegas Review-Journal: We endorse Mitt Romney for president

Nevadans must ask themselves which candidate will embrace policies that will put the people of this state back to work, creating the jobs that lift our incomes, our home values and our hope.

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Rasmussen on Fox News this morning saying his latest poll numbers show a 51% approval for the telepromptermaster. He attributed it to the fake 7.8% unemployment number. Are people really that stupid? We truly deserve Obama if people aren’t believing their lying eyes. Obama will find anything to win. Will it take a complete economic collapse to wake up the sheeple?

Decoski on October 8, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I currently live in Missouri and have for the last 3.5 years. I was born and raised in Ohio and both my family and my wife’s family still lives in Ohio and I personally know an Iowa Obama campaign worker who is a sold out feminist lib.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM


“Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico — now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.”

So this model says Romney will win NM and PA?

And you fools believe that crap?

BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Let’s see – you claim to be an expert in Missouri, Ohio and Iowa

Are you also saying you’re an expert on NM and PA?

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I’ve heard of a lot of sexual deviances in my time. But this has got to be the first case of a political poll fetish*.

(*shiny latex mask not included)

Liam on October 8, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Don’t even bother commenting if you don’t look at when the poll was taken.

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Oh this is hilarious. Tell us again how you were bragging 2 days ago that Obama is leading in Missouri – using a 6 weeks old poll as your proof.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:18 AM

So it wasn’t a joke in 04 and 08 when it was very accurate, but is a joke this year, lol?

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:14 AM

If it includes polls with samples that predict a higher Dem turnout than 2008, then yes. You never seem to want to address that, BTW. Do you believe the turnout on Election Day will back up these polls that claim D+8 or D+9 models?

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Ed,

Did you look at the internals. This week’s polling could be an interesting test of the claim that Dems have not been overrepresented in the polling up to this point. If the Dems’ proportion of the poll has demonstrably declined during this latest poll, then it would lend support to the argument that was promulgated over the last couple weeks, that the polling outcomes were coincidental. If the D/R/I split remains similar to what has been, then it would underscore that something is wrong with the polling. It also would suggest that Romney may have taken a significant lead…

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Let’s see – you claim to be an expert in Missouri, Ohio and Iowa

Are you also saying you’re an expert on NM and PA?

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:16 AM

No, I know a lot about Missouri, Ohio, and Iowa. Gumby just doesn’t get the technology of the blockquote.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 10:20 AM

“I’m voting for Romney, but am not really a supporter of his.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Whatever that means… What DOES that mean?”

I’m voting for the less of two evils, the liberal who is less liberal than the other guy.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:13 AM

So are you saying that you’re too simplistic to realize there are major differences between the two?

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Barack Obama’s debate performance wiped out a five-point lead in Gallup’s polling,

No, Ed. Mitt Romney’s performance did it. Credit where credit is due.

bluealice on October 8, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Where are you getting your numbers from?

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

It’s nether-regions/orifices, to be sure.

Midas on October 8, 2012 at 10:21 AM

What’s amazing about the Gallup debate result is that only 19% of Independents thought O’bamna won that debate. 70% of them said Romney did.

And yet nearly 40% of Democrats thought that Romney lost the debate.

Proof positive that you can’t fix Stupid. No wonder O’bamna is desperate for that final 30% of the High School Dropout Vote he didn’t get in ’08.

He knows he’ll need them all to have a chance.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Barack Obama’s debate performance wiped out a five-point lead in Gallup’s polling,

No, Ed. Mitt Romney’s performance did it. Credit where credit is due.

bluealice on October 8, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Some of both, actually.

Midas on October 8, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Looks like it’s time to take yet another look at the RCP map!

Just prior to the debate, the RCP map had it as Obama 269, Romney 181, with Ohio and New Hamsphire having been put in Obama’s column, while Missouri was taken out of it. Post-debate, they have it as Ohio moving back into the tossup column, meaning they now show it as Obama 251, Romney 181.

However, as the reverberations from the debate are still relatively fresh, this likely still overstates Obama’s advantage.

Let’s go through the toss-ups and summarize how they’re looking:

Colorado (9 EVs): there was about a 3-point lead for Obama before the debate. Two of the 3 latest polls show Romney leading, one shows Obama leading. As of right now, this is a slight Romney advantage.

Ohio (18 EVs): was about a 5-point lead for Obama before the debate. The latest 2 polls taken post-debate show Romney and Obama even. Although this state is dead-even as of right now, I’d bet on a slight Obama edge since the “debate bounce” will fade to some extent.

Iowa (6 EVs): Obama had about a 3 and a half point lead prior to the debate. There has been no polling done since, but if we use Ohio as a model which has relative geographic proximity, this means that Romney probably has a 1 to 2 point lead now.

Missouri (10 EVs): I think RCP has incorrectly placed this in the tossup column due to one outlier poll. This should be a safe-Romney state.

Florida (29 EVs): two polls have been conducted since the debate. Each shows Romney with a lead of 2-3 points. He’s winning here.

Nevada (6 EVs): Obama had about a 4 and a half point lead prior to the debate. No polling has been done since. Using Colorado as its best geographic approximation, this probably means that Obama retains an advantage, but only of about 1 point.

North Carolina (15 EVs): no polling has been done since the debate, but it was a slight Romney lead before. There’s no reason to think that changes now.

Virginia (13 EVs): 2 polls have been conducted since the debate, one that shows Romney ahead by 1 (done literally the day after), and one that shows Obama ahead by 3 (done a little bit after). This probably remains with Obama right now.

In short, that means that Obama is still likely to win OH, VA, and NV, while Romney takes CO, IA, FL, MO, and NC. However, Obama’s 3 winning states provide him with 37 electoral votes, more than enough to get the 19 additional electoral votes he needs. As such, I would continue to bet on an Obama victory if you’re laying down money. I would also bet on a couple of Romney’s states slipping away as the debate bounce fades and we get a more stable picture.

But for fun’s sake, let’s assume that I’m wrong, and that Romney’s debate bounce is in fact a permanent shift. Let us also assume that I’m slightly too pessimistic on Romney’s chances in Ohio. That would bring Obama’s gain from tossup wins over his RCP leaning and safe states down from 37 to 19 exactly. At that point, all Romney needs to do is win either Virginia or Nevada.

This presents an interesting conundrum if you’re Romney. In Nevada, you’ve got a large number of Mormons, but a growing Hispanic population. In Virginia, you’ve got social conservatives in the southern portion of the state, and Federal workers in the northern part.

If you’re Romney, which do you target?

Stoic Patriot on October 8, 2012 at 10:22 AM

So it wasn’t a joke in 04 and 08 when it was very accurate, but is a joke this year, lol?

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Very accurate by who’s standards? Furthermore, you are comparing apples to oranges. The final RCP averages from 2004 and 2008 was of the last polls for those races when pollsters were trying to be accurate. Are you seriously going to argue that the RCP average we have 30 days before the election made up of polls with a D+6 or worse demos is accurate?

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 10:22 AM

It’s still amazing to me that there are actually people out there who can’t decide between the candidates to the point where a disasterous debate would change their minds about who they’re going to vote for.

Bob's Kid on October 8, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Rasmussen also said this morning that good debate performance bounces last only a week, so with PravdaAmerika up the President’s azz, Romney and Ryan need all stellar and substantive debate performances to keep the schizophrenic independents from straying. It appears they are getting fooled by the fake 7.8% number.

Decoski on October 8, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:16 AM

No, I know a lot about Missouri, Ohio, and Iowa. Gumby just doesn’t get the technology of the blockquote.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Oh, sorry about that – so just where is Gumby an expert?

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Just prior to the debate, the RCP map had it as Obama 269, Romney 181, with Ohio and New Hamsphire having been put in Obama’s column, while Missouri was taken out of it Romney’s.

FIFM.

Stoic Patriot on October 8, 2012 at 10:25 AM

I currently live in Missouri and have for the last 3.5 years. I was born and raised in Ohio and both my family and my wife’s family still lives in Ohio and I personally know an Iowa Obama campaign worker who is a sold out feminist lib.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM

You live in Missouri, yet 2 weeks ago you were claiming Romney wasn’t doing any advertising in Wisconsin because you weren’t seeing them on TV?

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Any chance Democrat operatives secretly want Obama to lose so they can use Republican government as a platform to reenergize and take back the House or Senate in two years?

Scopper on October 8, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Bob’s Kid on October 8, 2012 at 10:23 AM

There are far too many ignoramuses who vote. The debates are really the only thing many of them pay attention too.

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 10:27 AM

– so just where is Gumby an expert?

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Pocket pool?

viking01 on October 8, 2012 at 10:29 AM

You live in Missouri, yet 2 weeks ago you were claiming Romney wasn’t doing any advertising in Wisconsin because you weren’t seeing them on TV?

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:26 AM

No, I live in Missouri. Again, Gumby sucks at quoting.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 10:29 AM

It’s still amazing to me that there are actually people out there who can’t decide between the candidates to the point where a disasterous debate would change their minds about who they’re going to vote for.

Bob’s Kid on October 8, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Most people don’t follow this stuff that closely, and they just vote by feel. It’s also how a creep like Obama could have been elected in the first place. AT least they’re open-minded enough to consider the alternatives before making a choice. The ones that I don’t understand are the staunch Democrats that are still supporting this stiff after four years of failure.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Rasmussen also said this morning that good debate performance bounces last only a week, so with PravdaAmerika up the President’s azz, Romney and Ryan need all stellar and substantive debate performances to keep the schizophrenic independents from straying. It appears they are getting fooled by the fake 7.8% number.

Decoski on October 8, 2012 at 10:24 AM

I don’t disagree. Romney’s debate performance last week isn’t enough to sustain this lead for another month. But if he and Ryan keep this up at the remaining 3 debates and have no major gaffes the rest of the way, they’ll win. The 7.8% figure won’t give people amnesia about how bad the economy has been the last 4 years.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 10:30 AM

We reached nearly 6000 registered voters in Reno this weekend. I met 50 others, ages 20 to 73, who drove up to three hours to catch the bus from Sacramento in order to walk the precincts. The Romney campaign is sending busloads of Californian volunteers to Reno and Las Vegas each weekend from now until election day. I’ll be returning the last weekend in October.

Donate your money or your time, whatever you can afford. This election is too important to lose.

My satisfaction will be when Barack Obama gives his concession speech on November 6th.

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Great work and dedication. I’ve made 15 specific gifts to Romney-Ryan and to the Super Pacs — doing everything I can to help.

I hope everyone realizes that every $10 gift gets one more ad on television or radio.

matthew8787 on October 8, 2012 at 10:31 AM

No, I live in Missouri. Again, Gumby sucks at quoting.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Ok, thanks for clearing that up. btw, I love Missouri, been there several times visiting a friend who used to live in Crawford County.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I don’t disagree. Romney’s debate performance last week isn’t enough to sustain this lead for another month. But if he and Ryan keep this up at the remaining 3 debates and have no major gaffes the rest of the way, they’ll win. The 7.8% figure won’t give people amnesia about how bad the economy has been the last 4 years.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 10:30 AM

It’s October and Romney is still in the game. This is all that matters. If Romney can present himself as a plausible alternative, the people will vote for change, because the economy has been terrible over the last four years.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Said it before.
Will say it again.
The fact that over 20% ,much less near 50% would vote for this total nothing,worthless POS, far left moron indicates that the Republic is finished.
Period.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 8, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I just don’t understand how this race can be close.

$16 TRILLION and counting.
Fast & furious.
Lie, after lie, after lie.

I ust don’t get it.

KMC1 on October 8, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Because defeating ANY incumbent president is serious, difficult, and expensive business. The powers of the presidency are extraordinary. And this president has an adoring MSM that worships the ground he walks on.

matthew8787 on October 8, 2012 at 10:34 AM

So today you don’t mention Rasmussen having it a tie which is good news for President Obama

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 10:36 AM

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

And who are you always trying to spin the polls for?

You’re a conservative – like Obama won Wednesday night’s debate.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Said it before.
Will say it again.
The fact that over 20% ,much less near 50% would vote for this total nothing,worthless POS, far left moron indicates that the Republic is finished.
Period.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on October 8, 2012 at 10:34 AM

You’re just a little ray of sunshine, aren’t you? There are no guarantees in life: Our job is to hold off the ruin of this republic for a generation. That is all that we can do, and it looks to me that we are on the verge of doing it. If Romney is successful, then it’ll be at least 12 or 16 years before the Dems get back in…

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Buzz Bissinger: I’m A Liberal And I’m Voting for Mitt Romney

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/10/buzz-bissinger-im-liberal-and-why-im.html

M2RB: George Stass

Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I’d chalk that up to the power of disillusionment.

I chalk it up to blame.

The media, and Obama, always have someone else to blame. Bush, the weather, whatever.

After this debate, their is nobody left to blame, except Obama himself.

Many have foolishly tried to flail about trying to blame the altitude, Romney’s lies, etc. but they beclown themselves.

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 10:41 AM

The Dems might be cleverly playing the expectations game, lowering expectations bar for Obama

Perhaps. And maybe viewership will continue off the charts, but possibly not.

As Teddy White wrote after the Kennedy-Nixon debates: Nixon recovered from the first debate disaster, but his image of invinceability was shot. Moreover, like so many things in life, the first was half the whole.

matthew8787 on October 8, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Barack Obama’s debate performance wiped out a five-point lead in Gallup’s polling, and put the race into a dead heat at 47% each for Obama and Mitt Romney.

Notice when GumbyoneTrick sees a poll he does not like he hunkers down in his fantasy world…what a punk troll.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 10:44 AM

With many polls showing Romney leading by double digits among independents how is this race all tied up?

bgibbs1000 on October 8, 2012 at 10:45 AM

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 10:36 AM

First off, Rasmussens Sunday polling tends to favor Obama. Second, according to Numbers Muncher, for the past week Ras has been doing +D4 polling. +D4 is only on the very edge of what is possible, and in reality its somewhat unlikely.

WolvenOne on October 8, 2012 at 10:46 AM

BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Off the already shaky rails. What a nut job.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 10:46 AM

This presents an interesting conundrum if you’re Romney. In Nevada, you’ve got a large number of Mormons, but a growing Hispanic population. In Virginia, you’ve got social conservatives in the southern portion of the state, and Federal workers in the northern part.

If you’re Romney, which do you target?

Stoic Patriot on October 8, 2012 at 10:22 AM

You pursue all of them. There are ample resources.

matthew8787 on October 8, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I’ve said it a dozen times…

Polls even = Romney win. There’s just too many folks -living and working in Liberal bastions- that cannot publicly announce a Republican vote, but will vote their portfolios, IRA’s, 401k, and simply the value of their home. This will definitely affect Virginia… and Florida… and Iowa… and Wisconsin…

Hell, polls even? Romney Blowout.

M240H on October 8, 2012 at 10:47 AM

“Also, the RCP average is a joke. It’s made up primarily of polls that use ridiculous samples that predict a turnout favoring Dems even more than 4 years ago.”

So it wasn’t a joke in 04 and 08 when it was very accurate, but is a joke this year, lol?

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Prove your contention but you can’t. You’re as simple as they get.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 10:47 AM

If you’re Romney, which do you target?

Stoic Patriot on October 8, 2012 at 10:22 AM

You’re as simple as GumbyoneTrick.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Many have foolishly tried to flail about trying to blame the altitude, Romney’s lies, etc. but they beclown themselves.

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I hope they trot out a new excuse every day. All it does is reinforce their defeat. Surprised they still want to talk about it.

matthew8787 on October 8, 2012 at 10:49 AM

The key for me is whether Romney’s surge has enough juice in it to get him pat the 47-percent mark. Romney’s inability to get over 47 percent to this point in the race is the only thing that I find truly worrisome. Otherwise, Romney seems nicely positioned to beat Obama; toppling a sitting president–even a clown like Obama–was never going to be easy.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Any chance Democrat operatives secretly want Obama to lose so they can use Republican government as a platform to reenergize and take back the House or Senate in two years?

Scopper on October 8, 2012 at 10:27 AM

The Clintons and their wing of the party absolutely want Obama to lose; Hillary’s only chance at the presidency in 2016 is running against Romney, not trying for a third Obama term.

Other Dems, no.

matthew8787 on October 8, 2012 at 10:51 AM

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Great work and dedication. I’ve made 15 specific gifts to Romney-Ryan and to the Super Pacs — doing everything I can to help.

I hope everyone realizes that every $10 gift gets one more ad on television or radio.

matthew8787 on October 8, 2012 at 10:31 AM

My wrist hurts coz of the many gifts I made to Romney campaign in the form of generous online donations. will continue to do so until they officially declare the campaign closed. the best I can do from a sorry (soon failed) state of moochers who will vote for him a landslide…funnily enough though, I saw so very few bumper stickers obama-biden or yard signs this year that I am almost incredulous…

jimver on October 8, 2012 at 10:51 AM

. This will definitely affect Virginia… and Florida… and Iowa… and Wisconsin…

Hell, polls even? Romney Blowout.

M240H on October 8, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Yep, walker/winsconsin redux…

jimver on October 8, 2012 at 10:54 AM

“Rasmussen on Fox News this morning saying his latest poll numbers show a 51% approval for the telepromptermaster. He attributed it to the fake 7.8% unemployment number.”

FIFTY ONE PERCENT APPROVAL

An incumbent does not lose with this number!!

And hello to the CW the COWARD.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:55 AM

“Rasmussen on Fox News this morning saying his latest poll numbers show a 51% approval for the telepromptermaster. He attributed it to the fake 7.8% unemployment number.”

FIFTY ONE PERCENT APPROVAL

An incumbent does not lose with this number!!

And hello to the CW the COWARD.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Humbug.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 10:56 AM

I wonder what Carter’s approval rating was on this date on 1980?

He was in the 30′s for much of the month.

A VERY different situation than Obama finds himself in.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Battleground Tracking Poll: Romney CRUSHING Obama with independents 51-35

In 2008, President Barack Obama won the independent vote over John McCain by a margin of eight points, 52-44. This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35.

Battleground Tracking Poll: Dems less enthusiastic

Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82122.html

Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 10:58 AM

With many polls showing Romney leading by double digits among independents how is this race all tied up?

bgibbs1000 on October 8, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Because these pollsters keep oversampling Dems. They’re using models that reflect a turnout similar to 2008 and in some cases skewed even more favorably towards Dems. If turnout is closer to the 2010 model(as I predict), then Romney wins comfortably since he’s doing well with indies.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Wunderbar!!!

jimver on October 8, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I wonder what Carter’s approval rating was on this date on 1980?

He was in the 30′s for much of the month.

A VERY different situation than Obama finds himself in.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Humbug again.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

For those who don’t know it, the Battleground poll is was taken mostly before the debate, so it doesn’t have the 7.8 impact, like Ras or Gallup tracking does.

FIFTY ONE PERCENT APPROVAL FOR OBAMA.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

“I wonder what Carter’s approval rating was on this date on 1980?

He was in the 30′s for much of the month.

A VERY different situation than Obama finds himself in.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Humbug again.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM”

Facts are such pesky things sometimes.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I wonder what Carter’s approval rating was on this date on 1980?

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Go to the archives and check…

jimver on October 8, 2012 at 11:02 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Speaking of cowards – did I miss your response or did you completely ignore this?

Don’t even bother commenting if you don’t look at when the poll was taken.

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Oh this is hilarious. Tell us again how you were bragging 2 days ago that Obama is leading in Missouri – using a 6 weeks old poll as your proof.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:18 AM

And this?

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

And who are you always trying to spin the polls for?

You’re a conservative – like Obama won Wednesday night’s debate.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Republican voters will be as motivated to vote this year as they were unmotivated to vote in 2008. A lot of GOP voters sat it out in 2008, and of those of us who did vote, not one of us did so with any great ardor.

The small but vocal Gary Johnson/Ron Paul types on this forum notwithstanding, Republican voters have a quiet but overwhelmingly intense resolve to get to the polls this time.

Right Mover on October 8, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Because these pollsters keep oversampling Dems. They’re using models that reflect a turnout similar to 2008 and in some cases skewed even more favorably towards Dems. If turnout is closer to the 2010 model(as I predict), then Romney wins comfortably since he’s doing well with indies.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I agree that they seem to be oversampling Dems. However, the reasons for this oversampling are much less transparent. Nevertheless, it seems to me that Romney’s edge with independents should be decisive, if realized on election day.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:03 AM

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:47 AM

…dumb fluke #2

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Facts are such pesky things sometimes.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Yoh wouldn’t know facts if they slapped you along the backside of your head, silly troll…or well, Greg, the monicker you use to spam Ace of Spade posts :)…

jimver on October 8, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Facts are such pesky things sometimes.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Yeah, tell us again how Romney had no campaign events scheduled on Saturday.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:05 AM

I have it on good authority that gumby and kunta were Obama’s debate preppers

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 11:05 AM

I agree that they seem to be oversampling Dems. However, the reasons for this oversampling are much less transparent. Nevertheless, it seems to me that Romney’s edge with independents should be decisive, if realized on election day.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Well if we’re being generous, they’re engaging in some wishful thinking(or willful ignorance) with those samples. If we’re being more cynical, they’re trying to depress the Republican base and suppress turnout.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 11:06 AM

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 9:48 AM

…dumb fluke #3

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:07 AM

I currently live in Missouri and have for the last 3.5 years. I was born and raised in Ohio and both my family and my wife’s family still lives in Ohio and I personally know an Iowa Obama campaign worker who is a sold out feminist lib.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM
You live in Missouri, yet 2 weeks ago you were claiming Romney wasn’t doing any advertising in Wisconsin because you weren’t seeing them on TV?

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I thought gumby was on record—maybe someone here can find it—as being a Wisconsin resident.

Not that we need any more evidence of his dishonesty. But which is it, is he a Wisconsin resident or a Missouri resident??

Right Mover on October 8, 2012 at 11:08 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I see GumbyOneTrick continues with has mad terror. Sheesh what a nutter.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 11:08 AM

“I wonder what Carter’s approval rating was on this date on 1980?

He was in the 30′s for much of the month.

A VERY different situation than Obama finds himself in.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Humbug again.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM”

Facts are such pesky things sometimes.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

And yet another humbug. Try raising a salient point, and then we’ll talk. Carter’s approval rating has nothing to do with this election. Polling in the thirties might be sufficent to beat an incumbent, but it is not necessary. And this 51 percent approval rating today is statistical noise within the margin of error.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

You live in Missouri, yet 2 weeks ago you were claiming Romney wasn’t doing any advertising in Wisconsin because you weren’t seeing them on TV?

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Gumby is the liar of liars.

I busted him claiming Romney was not advertising in Ohio AND he I busted him regarding the amount of advertising Obama was doing versus Romney….

Gumby will say ANYTHING.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 11:10 AM

On Rasmussen’s Approval Ratings, since we have a El-Trollo running around screaming about it.

Rassmussen’s approval ratings for Obama are outpacing approval ratings for most other pollsters. Specifically, the RCP average is 49%, and thats with that 51% figure factored it.

The reason for this, is that Rasmussen weights approval ratings to likely voters, and for the past week has been operating on a plus 4 Democrat rule. Four is plausible, but not all that likely if you ask me. The reason for this being that, while in 2008 Democrats were plus eight on paper, that is only because a number of Republicans re-registered as Independents.

When that is factored in, 2008 was more like, plus 4-5 democrats, so for Obama to get plus four he’d need to operate pretty close to 2008 turnout levels.

Using more accurate turnout models, Obama’s approval would currently be about, 48-49.

WolvenOne on October 8, 2012 at 11:10 AM

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

..dumb fluke #4

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Don’t even bother commenting if you don’t look at when the poll was taken.

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Oh this is hilarious. Tell us again how you were bragging 2 days ago that Obama is leading in Missouri – using a 6 weeks old poll as your proof.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:18 AM

And this?

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

And who are you always trying to spin the polls for?

You’re a conservative – like Obama won Wednesday night’s debate.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:02 AM

God Gumby is weak. AP and Ed can we please get a better pedigree of troll? Please!!!

CW on October 8, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Flora Duh …sweetie!…don’t stroke it…it’s already secreting by now!

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Well if we’re being generous, they’re engaging in some wishful thinking(or willful ignorance) with those samples. If we’re being more cynical, they’re trying to depress the Republican base and suppress turnout.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 11:06 AM

No, I think that it may be much more profound than that. I think that something structural has changed in the polling. It could be cultural–i.e., people don’t want to cooperate with these pollsters anymore, for whatever reason. Or it could be that they have a hard time accounting for the impact of cell phone usage in their polling.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:13 AM

milcus on October 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM

…dumb fluke #5

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Romney’s debate performance last week isn’t enough to sustain this lead for another month. But if he and Ryan keep this up at the remaining 3 debates and have no major gaffes the rest of the way, they’ll win. The 7.8% figure won’t give people amnesia about how bad the economy has been the last 4 years.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Mitt’s team still needs to advertise more. And not web ads, either. There’s a goldmine of material with which to attack his opponent, so much that he’ll never get to reference it all in the remaining debates.

Right Mover on October 8, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Right Mover on October 8, 2012 at 11:08 AM

CW on October 8, 2012 at 11:10 AM

That wasn’t actually the clay dummy saying they lived in Missouri. But since it doesn’t seem to know how to use the quote feature, it appeared it was him.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:11 AM

…dumb fluke #6

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Hello again to my favorite sniveling little COWARD, CW!

Good to see you COWARD…

So, with these poll numbers out that you seem so enamored with, how about accepting my bet?

Or do you still still know deep in your cowardly heart that Obama will win?

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:23 AM

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 10:56 AM

…dumb fluke #7

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Well if we’re being generous, they’re engaging in some wishful thinking(or willful ignorance) with those samples. If we’re being more cynical, they’re trying to depress the Republican base and suppress turnout.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 11:06 AM

No, I think that it may be much more profound than that. I think that something structural has changed in the polling. It could be cultural–i.e., people don’t want to cooperate with these pollsters anymore, for whatever reason. Or it could be that they have a hard time accounting for the impact of cell phone usage in their polling.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:13 AM

John Fund:

In recent years, many election polls have overestimated the Democrats’ share of the vote. People like to tell pollsters they plan to fulfill their civic duty and vote. In reality, about one-third of the people who say that won’t show up on Election Day. The best polls figure out if people are engaged enough to be likely voters. Even with those efforts, polls often oversample groups such as blue-collar women, who end up not voting in high numbers. Turnout, which has fallen below half of all adults in some years, does matter.

There are other reasons that polls may tilt slightly toward Democrats. The late Warren Mitofsky, who developed exit polling for CBS News in the 1960s, believed that Democrats are more likely to respond to media polls than are Republicans, who may distrust the media because of their liberal bias. In addition, more than 90 percent of the people pollsters try to contact initially hide behind voicemail or otherwise refuse to answer. “This makes survey results more uncertain and should cause concern, caution, and, above all, humility in reporting the results,” Leo Bogart, a former president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, once concluded.

Fund also had this fun reminder:

The political obituaries for the Republican nominee were rolling in prior to the first big debate.

William Saletan of Slate: “He is toast.”

Lawrence O’ Donnell of MSNBC: “It’s over.”

Eric Alterman of The Nation: “Barring extraterrestrial intervention, the election’s over and [Democrats] won it.”

The problem for Democrats is that all those baseless predictions were made in September 2000, when pundits were predicting that George W. Bush was a sure loser. Gallup’s polls in mid-September had Al Gore beating Bush by four to six points. Another poll released in mid-September by Newsweek showed Gore leading Bush by 14 points among likely voters. The Newsweek poll proved to be spectacularly wrong, in part because it surveyed only 580 likely voters over two nights. One of them was a Friday, when pollsters say more Democrats are at home.

Rest of story…

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 11:23 AM

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Thanks KOOL, but I avoided this site all day yesterday because of that idiot, and I’m going to rub his nose in his stupidity and lies every chance I get.

5. “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon. It is almost impossible to counteract ridicule. Also it infuriates the opposition, which then reacts to your advantage.”

You notice it has slithered away since I humiliated him about using the 6 week old Missouri poll, but I have no doubt it will be back.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:23 AM

“Mitt’s team still needs to advertise more. And not web ads, either. ”

That would take money, and the Romney campaign only raised hundreds of millions of dollars, which apparently isn’t enough to get an equal amount of ads on the air as Obama has.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:24 AM

I don,t trust any poll not even Rasmussen.Before the debate Romney was up 3 in Colorado and 3 in Iowa according to Rasmussen now after the debate Rasmussen has Obama up in both states.He also has 54% wanting the repel of Obama care but Obama approval at 50% .This make no sense.Do these people realize if you reelect Obama Obama care stays? Ether the American are stupid beyond hope or they are flat out lying to the pollsters.

logman1 on October 8, 2012 at 11:26 AM

“ou notice it has slithered away since I humiliated him about using the 6 week old Missouri poll, but I have no doubt it will be back.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:23 AM”

Slithered away, lol.

I’ve been here all morning long and will be back later today.

I just can’t wait until election night when Ohio is called for Obama and you guys go into meltdown.

God, this is going to be fun.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:27 AM

“I don,t trust any poll not even Rasmussen.Before the debate Romney was up 3 in Colorado and 3 in Iowa according to Rasmussen now after the debate Rasmussen has Obama up in both states.”

Now Ras is cooking the books!

I do love this place.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:27 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Respond to these coward.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Must be really embarrassing to get your a*s handed to you over and over – by a girl.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Michelle Obama my vote for Romney

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Let’s see – you claim to be an expert in Missouri, Ohio and Iowa

Are you also saying you’re an expert on NM and PA?

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Joanna’s ounger dumber brother?

katy the mean old lady on October 8, 2012 at 11:30 AM

“Let’s see – you claim to be an expert in Missouri, Ohio and Iowa

Are you also saying you’re an expert on NM and PA?

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:16 AM”

Enough of an expert to know PA and NM aren’t in play.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:31 AM

That would take money, and the Romney campaign only raised hundreds of millions of dollars, which apparently isn’t enough to get an equal amount of ads on the air as Obama has.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:24 AM

For both campaigns, Florida is one of the keys to winning the White House. It’s even more important for Romney, whose paths to Electoral College victory are few without the state’s 29 votes. Even though each side has already spent $60 million on TV and radio ads, Republicans are expected to spend even more than Democrats in the campaign’s final weeks.

[snip]

The Romney campaign didn’t wait for the former Massachusetts governor to secure the nomination to set up a presence in the city. Unlike McCain, who was far outspent, they’re matching the huge resources Obama is pumping into the area, said Brett Doster, a Florida-based political consultant who is advising the campaign and ran George W. Bush’s 2004 Florida campaign.

Along with a stronger ground game — Doster says it’s bigger and better organized than when Bush carried Duval County by 61,000 votes — the Romney campaign believes it will be able to win back Republicans who supported Obama. Source

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:31 AM

“Must be really embarrassing to get your a*s handed to you over and over – by a girl.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:28 AM”

Women shouldn’t even be voting, so why waste time going back and forth with some nag.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Women shouldn’t even be voting, so why waste time going back and forth with some nag.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Bless your little cowardly heart.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:34 AM

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