Gallup: Race all even, 47/47 …

posted at 9:21 am on October 8, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama’s debate performance wiped out a five-point lead in Gallup’s polling, and put the race into a dead heat at 47% each for Obama and Mitt Romney.  By a record amount, Romney came out the winner of the debate in the same survey, emphases mine:

An Oct. 4-5 Gallup poll finds roughly two in three Americans reporting that they watched the Oct. 3 debate, similar to what Gallup measured for each of the three 2008 presidential debates. Those who viewed the debate overwhelmingly believe Romney did a better job than Obama, 72% to 20%. Republicans were nearly unanimous in judging Romney the winner. But even Democrats rated Romney as doing a better job than Obama, 49% to 39%.

These assessments are based on interviewing conducted Thursday and Friday after the Wednesday night debate, and may reflect the impact of news stories and media commentary — which mostly declared Romney as the debate winner — as well as personal reactions to the debates as they unfolded.

Gallup has assessed opinion on who did better in most past presidential debates; some of these polls were conducted the night of the debate with pre-recruited samples of debate watchers immediately after it concluded, and some were conducted with more general samples of Americans in the days that followed the debate. Across all of the various debate-reaction polls Gallup has conducted, Romney’s 52-point win is the largest Gallup has measured. The prior largest margin was 42 points for Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush in the 1992 town hall debate.

Just as an FYI, independents closely tracked the overall result at 70/19.

That may not be the worst of the damage, either.  The meltdown on the Left over Obama’s disastrous performance continued over the weekend, and Obama surrogates got challenged on it during the Sunday talk shows.  Yuval Levin at The Corner wonders why Democrats chose to magnify the disappointment and make the conclusion more concrete:

In the days since last week’s presidential debate, the Democrats have fallen into a very peculiar sort of disarray. Four days on, they are still, and apparently on purpose, sustaining the “Romney won big” story by furiously making excuses for Obama’s poor performance. He didn’t do that badly, but listening to Obama himself, his campaign, and his bewildered surrogates the last few days you would think that Obama was utterly destroyed by some kind of evil genius who was equal parts master actor, pathological liar, and bully. You should watch the debate again to see how silly this is. And it’s hard to understand why the Democrats continue to advance this story. I bet that if you polled people today about who won and lost the debate, Obama would do even worse than he did in Wednesday night’s instant polls, thanks to his and his campaign’s continuing self flagellation.

I’d chalk that up to the power of disillusionment.  The fable of the emperor with no clothes doesn’t extend much beyond the wisdom of the young lad who points out the leader’s nakedness (and stupidity), but I would not be surprised if the coda to that story involved tar, feathers, and emperors and their sycophants, with some assembly required.  The people who bought the media line of Obama’s brilliance and rhetorical mastery have to wonder now whether they’ve been lied to all along — and that question will generate considerable anger toward those media sycophants who have been propping up this particularly naked emperor.  That may be why so many of those media sycophants have tried to get ahead of the anger by leading the charge.

Back to the main race.  Obama’s 50/45 lead from polling between 9/30-10/2 has dissipated to a 47/47 from polling between 10/4-10/6. The tracking poll shows something slightly different — but …

Gallup typically reports voter presidential preferences in seven-day rolling averages; the latest such average as of Saturday interviewing shows Obama with an average three-point edge, 49% to 46%, among registered voters. This Sept. 30-Oct. 6 field period includes three days before the Oct. 3 debate, the night of the debate itself, and three days after the debate.

Even on this basis, the race has become somewhat more competitive compared with before the first debate. Obama held four- to six-point leads in Gallup’s seven-day tracking results in the eight days prior to the Oct. 3 debate.

One more thing to keep in mind, too.  This polled registered voters, not likely voters.  Obama has had double-digit leads in some RV polls after the convention.  I suspect that the story among likely voters is quite a bit different …. and we will have some data on that later this morning.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3

Suck it gumby/

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Barack Obama’s debate performance wiped out a five-point lead in Gallup’s polling

The Surfaris….

ted c on October 8, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Someone go down the basement and wake the gumb.

katy the mean old lady on October 8, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Suck it gumby/

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:23 AM

…don’t even start with that one today…I’ll go Chrissy Mathews on everybody!

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 9:26 AM

My own crappy analysis has Romney up by 3 pts., but I have no polls in my own average from after the debate yet.

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Uh oh… Registered voters?!?!?! What in the world are the trolls going to say now?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 9:26 AM

but I would not be surprised if the coda to that story involved tar, feathers, and emperors and their sycophants, with some assembly required.

I saw what you did there Ed… ;p

SWalker on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

It really means Romney is winning, they just can’t show that yet in case they get DOJ again.

With 15% indies breaking for Romney Romney is really up by 5

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Um less than a month till the election and Gallup is STILL using a registered voter model? Huh? The day they switch to likely voters Romney goes up 5. As far as I know, Gallup is the ONLY pollster still reporting registered voters.

They should be ashamed.

mitchellvii on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Someone go down the basement and wake the gumb.

katy the mean old lady on October 8, 2012 at 9:24 AM

…heck no!…he’s always got his poll in his hand!

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

We reached nearly 6000 registered voters in Reno this weekend. I met 50 others, ages 20 to 73, who drove up to three hours to catch the bus from Sacramento in order to walk the precincts. The Romney campaign is sending busloads of Californian volunteers to Reno and Las Vegas each weekend from now until election day. I’ll be returning the last weekend in October.

Donate your money or your time, whatever you can afford. This election is too important to lose.

My satisfaction will be when Barack Obama gives his concession speech on November 6th.

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Can you imagine if they switched over to an LV model today? Axelrod would probably have them subpoenaed by this afternoon. The election is a month away. What the hell use is a registered voters sample?

The Count on October 8, 2012 at 9:28 AM

I’m sorry Romney is winning independents by 24 points

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 9:29 AM

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

…good for you!…bless you…and thank you!

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Besides the 6000 door-to-door contacts, our telephone brigade called thousands more.

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Will be fun to see what Rasmussen and Gallup have in store for us!

Looking forward to tomorrow morning and we can see just how the 7.8 number played with the American public.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 12:17 AM

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:31 AM

I expect Obama to get about a billion dollars in donations from overseas this month.

JellyToast on October 8, 2012 at 9:31 AM

He didn’t do that badly, but listening to Obama himself, his campaign, and his bewildered surrogates the last few days you would think that Obama was utterly destroyed by some kind of evil genius who was equal parts master actor, pathological liar, and bully. You should watch the debate again to see how silly this is.

The real problem wasn’t that Obama was bad(although he was). It’s that Romney was so good. I think that’s what terrifies the left so much. If it was just a matter of Obama having a bad night, then they’d figure he could bounce back next Tuesday at the townhall debate with a little extra preparation. But now they realize they’re up against an opponent who is fully loaded with stats, studies, and examples of Obama’s failed record up the wazoo. That makes Obama’s overreliance on talking points and straw man arguments sound even worse in comparison.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I’m still in awe of the shellacking last Wednesday. The numbers are just unreal.

changer1701 on October 8, 2012 at 9:32 AM

The DOJ needs to investigate this poll. Maybe make an example out of them.

JellyToast on October 8, 2012 at 9:32 AM

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 9:31 AM

That’s awesome.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Don’t forget!

Obama’s Gallup approval numbers have also plueted from

Approve 99999999%
Disapprove 0%

To now
Approve 48%
Disapprove 46%

Varchild on October 8, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I just don’t understand how this race can be close.

$16 TRILLION and counting.
Fast & furious.
Lie, after lie, after lie.

I ust don’t get it.

KMC1 on October 8, 2012 at 9:34 AM

@RasmussenPoll

National Daily Tracking: #Obama: 48%, Romney: #48%… http://t.co/jDxChXiv

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Ras has them tied but weight in the weekend polling Romney will be leading by wed

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Someone go down the basement and wake the gumb.

katy the mean old lady on October 8, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Gumby must have his pokey all in a knot.

ChicagoBlues on October 8, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Romney hit 51% of independents. That is huge, Obama is going to have to go negative in the debate to try to stay relevant

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 9:37 AM

@RasmussenPoll

National Daily Tracking: #Obama: 48%, Romney: #48%… http://t.co/jDxChXiv
Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I’ll take that.

gophergirl on October 8, 2012 at 9:37 AM

FOLLOW THE TREND

Haahaahahhahahaahaha
.
.
snort
.
.
.
Hahahahahahhhaahahah

Electrongod on October 8, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Um less than a month till the election and Gallup is STILL using a registered voter model? Huh? The day they switch to likely voters Romney goes up 5. As far as I know, Gallup is the ONLY pollster still reporting registered voters.

They should be ashamed.

mitchellvii on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

When they switch to likely voters, I bet the partisan splits increase to D +20 or more until just before the election to give the illusion of the inevitability of the one up until Gallup feels they need to try to salvage their credibility.

italianguy626 on October 8, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I just don’t understand how this race can be close.

$16 TRILLION and counting.
Fast & furious.
Lie, after lie, after lie.

I ust don’t get it.

KMC1 on October 8, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Ditto

MessesWithTexas on October 8, 2012 at 9:39 AM

@RasmussenPoll

National Daily Tracking: #Obama: 48%, Romney: #48%… http://t.co/jDxChXiv

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I’ll take that.

gophergirl on October 8, 2012 at 9:37 AM

It’s not bad considering it includes Saturday and Sunday. Obama usually does better when the 3-day rolling average factors in the weekend.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 9:40 AM

This is off topic a bit, but remember the story about NBC telling Obama to pull the ad with the Andrea Mitchell clip? I saw that stupid ad twice over the last 2 days during the Reds/Giants games. Why haven’t they pulled it yet?

Oh and GO REDS!!!

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 9:41 AM

“This is fun”

southernms on October 8, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Prepare for the hidden videos to start flying..

Static21 on October 8, 2012 at 9:42 AM

KMC1 on October 8, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Agreed. This is insane. A rational and moral people would have demanded his resignation long ago.

What am I saying, a rational and moral people would have laughed him, AND the media wh*res promoting him, off the stage in 2004.

Cleombrotus on October 8, 2012 at 9:43 AM

We’re watching a preference cascade, and it’s a beautiful thing!

bonnie_ on October 8, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Where is Gumby when you need him? (Please note Ed, if you are reading this, when we call for Gumby, that is not a concession that we do not want you to boot him – we do, it just means we cant wait to see how he spins this in the most preposterous way imaginable.)

I thought Friday was an “atomic bomb” that took away all momentum from the debate.

He was telling us how “right” he was, and yet, as always, he comes out looking like a clueless troll.

One more thing to remember folks, aside from the fact, as Ed mentioned, that this is a poll of registered voters, this poll also factors in quite a few pre-debate days as well. So, by Thursday morning, Romney might be up by 4-5 amont registered voters. In that case, no pressure on Joe Biden, that gaffetastic wonk.

milcus on October 8, 2012 at 9:44 AM

It’s not bad considering it includes Saturday and Sunday. Obama usually does better when the 3-day rolling average factors in the weekend.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Yep – we still have a lot to do and the media is going to be extra viscious these last 30 days.

Mitt’s speech today should help and Ryan destroying Biden on Thurday will really help.

gophergirl on October 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

“@RasmussenPoll

National Daily Tracking: #Obama: 48%, Romney: #48%… http://t.co/jDxChXiv

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM”

Means Obama won both the Saturday and Sunday samples. If the Gallup tracker stays the same or moves to Obama, then they’re showing the same thing.

Also, Ras has Obama +2 in Iowa.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Romney beat Obama by 52 points in the debate, according to Gallup. Choke on that, douche.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Obama +1 in CO in new Ras poll…

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Also, Ras has Obama +2 in Iowa.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I personally know an Obama campaign worker in Iowa and Obama isn’t winning Iowa.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 9:48 AM

@RasmussenPoll

National Daily Tracking: #Obama: 48%, Romney: #48%… http://t.co/jDxChXiv
Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:35 AM

So, Rasmussen sees a small counter-bounce from the 7.8 number.

Regardless, I will take a tie at this point over being down. Unlike some, I think Romney will embarass Obama in all 3 debates (if anyone doesn’t think the performance last Wednesday was Obama, you haven’t been paying attention. That is all he is, and all he can be). And obviously, the Ryan/Biden debate should resemble an SNL skit in which Biden says dumb things and Ryan simply embarasses him.

By election day, like I have predicted all along, Romney will win by 4-5, and get over 300 electoral votes. And Republicans will have 53-55 seats in the Senate.

milcus on October 8, 2012 at 9:48 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:47 AM

I thought you said that Gallup would be favorable to Obama today. What happened, liar?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

“gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Romney beat Obama by 52 points in the debate, according to Gallup. Choke on that, douche.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:47 AM”

LOL, have I ever said Obama won the debate? Didn’t think so.

But with Romney tanking over the weekend in Gallup and Ras, the next few days should be fun.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

“gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:47 AM

I thought you said that Gallup would be favorable to Obama today. What happened, liar?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM”

Gallup tracking, idiot. They showed Obama winning the sample on Saturday and at noon today, we’ll see who won Sunday.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

$16 TRILLION and counting.
Fast & furious.
Lie, after lie, after lie.

I ust don’t get it.

KMC1 on October 8, 2012 at 9:34 AM

You need to remember that most people aren’t political junkies. In the case of the latter two, the huge majority have never heard of them (I think like 25% of the population has heard fo Solyndra as well).

In the case of the debt, those affected will be voting for Obama because of the government benefits and those not affected don’t see how it could affect them. The huge majority of Americans don’t have even a basic understanding of economics.

Furthermore, especially in the case of F&F, the Republicans don’t want to push it too hard for fear of looking “extremist.” There is a reason Romney’s critics have been saying he is a bad campaigner. We OUGHT to be hearing more about this stuff and we’re not for fear that it will somehow alienate the independents. The debate was the first serious pushback by the Romney campaign against Obama in weeks.

Doomberg on October 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Poll troll is here – later all

gophergirl on October 8, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Means Obama won both the Saturday and Sunday samples. If the Gallup tracker stays the same or moves to Obama, then they’re showing the same thing.

Also, Ras has Obama +2 in Iowa.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Bless your dumb little heart.

Will be fun to see what Rasmussen and Gallup have in store for us!

Looking forward to tomorrow morning and we can see just how the 7.8 number played with the American public.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 12:17 AM

You think we’re going to let you off the hook? WRONG!

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:50 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Ha keep spinning, douche. How is it that you’re “conservative”, again?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Ed: I’d chalk that up to the power of disillusionment.

Back when the press was attacking Sarah Palin at the Republican Convention I was watching TV with my Dad and I said “This is bad, once this guy starts to fail and the fraud he is is finally exposed the public will turn on the people who sold then this guy, the press and democrat party”.

Ed, I would also chalk this up to panic by the people who sold the invisible clothes. At some point what we didn’t see in the fairy tale was what happened to those con artists. I think if they have any self-awareness of what they have done in the greatest hoax EVER put on the American people they are people in a panic to make sure it keeps going or else they fear the backlash for the underlings all across the press and democrat party from the people.

I think you could see a meltdown because I was watching ESPN and they are running a $5 trillion dollar tax cut that the middle class will pay for ad even last night. They are NOT backing down their extremism. Will that pay dividends or bring them crashing down with a public who has had enough bad government?

Conan on October 8, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Check out the new battleground poll. Obama up just one nationally, but Romney crushing him among independents and Republicans a lot more enthusiastic. The best part? most of the polling was done BEFORE the debate: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/08/Battleground-Romney-Crushing-Obama-Indies

changer1701 on October 8, 2012 at 9:51 AM

And this non-tracking Gallup would be heavily slanted to picking up the debate bounce based on the dates taken.

The Gallup tracking poll will pick up the jobs number bounce as Ras is doing right now.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:51 AM

It’s time to ban the poll troll already.

changer1701 on October 8, 2012 at 9:52 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Dose of reality.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Also, Ras has Obama +2 in Iowa.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Obama +1 in CO in new Ras poll…

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Where are you getting your numbers from?

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Kmc

Its call covering for dear leader by the lsm

cmsinaz on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

“gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Ha keep spinning, douche. How is it that you’re “conservative”, again?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:50 AM”

Yeah, it’s really spinning to point out they’re two different polls, idiot.

Don’t even bother commenting if you don’t look at when the poll was taken.

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

changer1701 on October 8, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Trolls don’t get banned here.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Romney’s in a good position now but is hardly out of the woods yet. Really need to see a polling breakthrough in IA, VA, or CO. FL and OH will go down to the wire.

Robert_Paulson on October 8, 2012 at 9:54 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

You mad bro?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:54 AM

“Where are you getting your numbers from?

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM”

Subscriber section…

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Gallup tracking, idiot. They showed Obama winning the sample on Saturday and at noon today, we’ll see who won Sunday.

jame gumb on October 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Newsflash, troll. Obama(and Dems in general) poll better on weekends. That’s always been the case. It’s not because of the “atomic bomb” of the manufactured jobs report. It’s because fewer conservatives and Republicans respond to pollsters on Saturday and Sunday.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Don’t forget the Snoop Dog telling us Moochelle has a fat a$$ bounce.

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Will be fun to see what Rasmussen and Gallup have in store for us!

Looking forward to tomorrow morning and we can see just how the 7.8 number played with the American public.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 12:17 AM

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:31 AM

HA! you just “rogerb-ed” it!!

hoosierma on October 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM

“gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

You mad bro?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:54 AM”

Your idiocy is trying at times, but I’ll do my best to educate you.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Gallup tracking, idiot. They showed Obama winning the sample on Saturday and at noon today, we’ll see who won Sunday.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:49 AM

You do realize that Sunday replaces last Sunday in Gallup? Meaning, Romney made up 3 points from yesterday’s number by having the difference from those 2 days, plus the other 6 that were part of Sunday’s number. How do you figure replacing today with last Monday, should be “fun” for you? No matter what happens, Romney should gain a point or two in tomorrow’s number because that number helped sustain a lead for Obama for 6 days.

And with Ras, once we get to weekdays, Romney always does better. So, again, tomorrow Romney should be up by a point or two.

Stop embarassing yourself and just admit you know nothing about polls (which is obvious from your posts).

milcus on October 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM


I’m voting for Romney, but am not really a supporter of his.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 9:56 AM

“Obama(and Dems in general) poll better on weekends. That’s always been the case. It’s not because of the “atomic bomb” of the manufactured jobs report. It’s because fewer conservatives and Republicans respond to pollsters on Saturday and Sunday.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 9:55 AM”

Keep making excuses, Pillbury.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Subscriber section…

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Anyone else subscribe to Rasmussen so we can get some verification of his claims? Rasmussen’s electoral college map shows Romney up in both Colorado and Iowa.

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Trolls don’t get banned here.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

They ought to be. He’s adding nothing to the discussion and is clearly here to disrupt, an Obama supporter disguised as a “concerned” conservative. Enough already.

Romney’s in a good position now but is hardly out of the woods yet. Really need to see a polling breakthrough in IA, VA, or CO. FL and OH will go down to the wire.

Robert_Paulson on October 8, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Yeah…gotta keep the mo going. The good news out of FL and NC is that the GOP is leading in early voting so far. I think it all comes down to OH.

changer1701 on October 8, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Also, Ras has Obama +2 in Iowa.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Funny, you didn’t quote the rest of that paragraph…

New results from Colorado will be released at 10:30 Eastern. Other post-debate state polls show Romney up one in Virginia, the president up one in Ohio and Romney up two in Florida. All remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Yeah, it’s really spinning to point out they’re two different polls, idiot.

Don’t even bother commenting if you don’t look at when the poll was taken.

But that’s what partisan’s do. Try to spin results the best way for their candidate.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:53 AM

You have the nerve to call someone an idiot? You’re the idiot who comments on states that you have absolutely know personal knowledge of or tie to thinking that nobody will call you out and even when you get your butt handed to you, you disappear for a little bit and then come back for more.

I’ll try to give you a little heads up from me so you don’t embarrass yourself quite as much next time. I currently live in Missouri and have for the last 3.5 years. I was born and raised in Ohio and both my family and my wife’s family still lives in Ohio and I personally know an Iowa Obama campaign worker who is a sold out feminist lib. So just a heads up… if you want to talk about Missouri, Ohio, or Iowa, make sure you have your facts straight.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 9:59 AM

“Anyone else subscribe to Rasmussen so we can get some verification of his claims? Rasmussen’s electoral college map shows Romney up in both Colorado and Iowa.

NotCoach on October 8, 2012 at 9:57 AM”

The results go up on the regular site usually by 11 AM or so.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:00 AM

The Huffington is strong with this one.

Electrongod on October 8, 2012 at 10:01 AM

This —>

The real problem wasn’t that Obama was bad (although he was). It’s that Romney was so good. I think that’s what terrifies the left so much.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 9:32 AM

BocaJuniors on October 8, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Battleground Poll: Romney Up 16 with Independents, Up 13 In Enthusiasm
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/08/Battleground-Romney-Crushing-Obama-Indies

This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35.

Nationally, Gallup has it all tied up among registered voters — with the president dangerously below 50 at 47%. Rasmussen uses the more reliable likely voter screen and has Romney up 49-47%.

In the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, nationally Romney is only down .09%. A week ago he was down over 4 points.

In Ohio, according to RCP’s poll of polls, Obama’s Ohio lead has shrunk to three — Virginia has Obama only up by 0.3. Florida and Colorado are tied.

Hey, this sounds like kind of bad new to all those voting for Romney who aren’t really a supporter(s) of his.

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:01 AM

I say this in a very cautious, yet optimistic way:

I truly believe last week’s debate was a knockout. It fully stripped the President of his cloak.

My personal opinion is that if Romney can keep the heat up, he will win. He may not win handily, but he will win.

blatantblue on October 8, 2012 at 10:02 AM

changer1701 on October 8, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Ed and AP only ban conservatives, for some reasons. Trolls look like they have free reign.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Please please everyone, I thought it was decided yesterday that the poll troll would be ignored.

Brat on October 8, 2012 at 10:03 AM

The Surfaris….
ted c on October 8, 2012 at 9:24 AM

EARWORM !!! EARWORM !!
*runs frantically around the house trying to shut up my brain*
Thanks, Ted !!
;-)

pambi on October 8, 2012 at 10:03 AM

“You have the nerve to call someone an idiot? You’re the idiot who comments on states that you have absolutely know personal knowledge of or tie to thinking that nobody will call you out and even when you get your butt handed to you, you disappear for a little bit and then come back for more.

I’ll try to give you a little heads up from me so you don’t embarrass yourself quite as much next time. I currently live in Missouri and have for the last 3.5 years. I was born and raised in Ohio and both my family and my wife’s family still lives in Ohio and I personally know an Iowa Obama campaign worker who is a sold out feminist lib. So just a heads up… if you want to talk about Missouri, Ohio, or Iowa, make sure you have your facts straight.”

Are you kidding me? The worst person to talk to would some partisan spin machine. All you have to do is look at the numbers. They didn’t lie in 08 and won’t lie this year.

The RCP average tells all.

And, yeah, you are an idiot if you don’t know the difference between a regular Gallup and the Gallup tracking and don’t even care when the poll was taken. These are just common sense things to look at.

But when all you want to do is spin spin spin…

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Ed, what’s the sample on that poll? D+12?

The Gallup tracking poll will pick up the jobs number bounce as Ras is doing right now.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 9:51 AM

There won’t be a bounce from the fake job numbers as we explained to you at length on Friday. What you did get however was a lot of derision and snickers from the folks paying attention. That report didn’t fool anyone.

Now Gallup is really losing what cred they had left. If they used the 2010 turnout model they would be reporting what Zero and Romney see in their internals. Zero is tanking hard.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico — now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

More bad new to all those voting for Romney who aren’t really a supporter(s) of his.

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Ed and AP only ban conservatives, for some reasons. Trolls look like they have free reign.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 10:02 AM

that isn’t true at all

i could rattle off a whole list of trolls they have banned

blatantblue on October 8, 2012 at 10:06 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM

How’s that new OFA tattoo feel?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Go Mitt Go! Pour it on, the truth will set us free.

Speakup on October 8, 2012 at 10:07 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Anyone ever bother to tell you that you’re just a plain old nag?

Cleanup on Thread Four; Cleanup on Thread Four!

Jiminy Cricket, Hokeypokey–Shut the frack up for once, will ya? We got–Obama by a landslide.

Now, why don’t you do something useful. Like becoming business for a mortician.

Liam on October 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

“Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico — now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.”

So this model says Romney will win NM and PA?

And you fools believe that crap?

BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Um less than a month till the election and Gallup is STILL using a registered voter model? Huh? The day they switch to likely voters Romney goes up 5. As far as I know, Gallup is the ONLY pollster still reporting registered voters.

They should be ashamed.

mitchellvii on October 8, 2012 at 9:27 AM

This isn’t your grandfather’s Gallup Poll, or even your father’s. George Gallup sold the firm decades ago, and no members of his family are even associated with the firm now.

And since that time they have partnered with, and then been thrown under the bus by, the corrupt CNN.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM

“gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM

How’s that new OFA tattoo feel?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 10:07 AM”

Get back to me when you actually learn to read, wargamer.

I’ll do my best to help you. I promise.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:10 AM


I currently live in Missouri and have for the last 3.5 years. I was born and raised in Ohio and both my family and my wife’s family still lives in Ohio and I personally know an Iowa Obama campaign worker who is a sold out feminist lib.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM

How does she feel about the fact that you’re:

I’m voting for Romney, but am not really a supporter of his.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Whatever that means… What DOES that mean?

Does mean you’re for the bumbling blowhard Barry?

Colbyjack on October 8, 2012 at 10:11 AM

“And since that time they have partnered with, and then been thrown under the bus by, the corrupt CNN.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 10:09 AM”

Now DELL chimes in with his excuses.

I love this place.

And I will love Ras showing Obama back in the lead by Wed.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Are you kidding me? The worst person to talk to would some partisan spin machine. All you have to do is look at the numbers. They didn’t lie in 08 and won’t lie this year.

The RCP average tells all.

jame gumb on October 8, 2012 at 10:04 AM

The numbers from ’08 aren’t going to resemble the numbers in ’12. Not by a long shot. The electorate is completely different from 4 years ago. Or do you think the 2010 midterms were just a bad dream?

Also, the RCP average is a joke. It’s made up primarily of polls that use ridiculous samples that predict a turnout favoring Dems even more than 4 years ago.

Let me make this so simple that even you can understand. If Dems turn out in numbers rivaling those of 2008(while Republicans stay home to the same degree as 4 years ago), then Obama will win reelection comfortably. No one on Hot Gas would argue otherwise. But only a total idiot OD’ing on kool-aid would think November 6 will see exit polls like that.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 10:12 AM

“I’m voting for Romney, but am not really a supporter of his.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Whatever that means… What DOES that mean?”

I’m voting for the less of two evils, the liberal who is less liberal than the other guy.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:13 AM

“Also, the RCP average is a joke. It’s made up primarily of polls that use ridiculous samples that predict a turnout favoring Dems even more than 4 years ago.”

So it wasn’t a joke in 04 and 08 when it was very accurate, but is a joke this year, lol?

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:14 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 10:13 AM

It means that you’re a liar. We know you’re an Obama voter.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I just don’t understand how this race can be close.

$16 TRILLION and counting.
Fast & furious.
Lie, after lie, after lie.

I ust don’t get it.

KMC1 on October 8, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Um:

Obamaphones
Moron Horde
Arrested Development.

You need to start paying attention — in fact, there was a little secret video where Romney said back in May there were 47% who were going to vote for Obama no matter what. If you hadn’t noticed we had an ambassador & 3 others killed in 9/11/12 & the man responsible for their safety jumped a plane to Vegas & the moron horde was totally OK with that. Wednesday night Romney suggested a test for all federal programs “is it critical enough to borrow money from China to fund” and they are screaming that he wants to “kill Big Bird” because they are far, far more concerned about the “fate” of Big Bird than they are with the death of Ambassador Stevens. Romney was right about the percentage of people who would vote for Obama “no matter what” — his mistake was that it isn’t because they are *all* dependent on the government– some are corrupt, some are sociopaths and some are good old-fashioned idiots.

Dark Star on October 8, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3