Gallup: Race all even, 47/47 …

posted at 9:21 am on October 8, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Barack Obama’s debate performance wiped out a five-point lead in Gallup’s polling, and put the race into a dead heat at 47% each for Obama and Mitt Romney.  By a record amount, Romney came out the winner of the debate in the same survey, emphases mine:

An Oct. 4-5 Gallup poll finds roughly two in three Americans reporting that they watched the Oct. 3 debate, similar to what Gallup measured for each of the three 2008 presidential debates. Those who viewed the debate overwhelmingly believe Romney did a better job than Obama, 72% to 20%. Republicans were nearly unanimous in judging Romney the winner. But even Democrats rated Romney as doing a better job than Obama, 49% to 39%.

These assessments are based on interviewing conducted Thursday and Friday after the Wednesday night debate, and may reflect the impact of news stories and media commentary — which mostly declared Romney as the debate winner — as well as personal reactions to the debates as they unfolded.

Gallup has assessed opinion on who did better in most past presidential debates; some of these polls were conducted the night of the debate with pre-recruited samples of debate watchers immediately after it concluded, and some were conducted with more general samples of Americans in the days that followed the debate. Across all of the various debate-reaction polls Gallup has conducted, Romney’s 52-point win is the largest Gallup has measured. The prior largest margin was 42 points for Bill Clinton over George H.W. Bush in the 1992 town hall debate.

Just as an FYI, independents closely tracked the overall result at 70/19.

That may not be the worst of the damage, either.  The meltdown on the Left over Obama’s disastrous performance continued over the weekend, and Obama surrogates got challenged on it during the Sunday talk shows.  Yuval Levin at The Corner wonders why Democrats chose to magnify the disappointment and make the conclusion more concrete:

In the days since last week’s presidential debate, the Democrats have fallen into a very peculiar sort of disarray. Four days on, they are still, and apparently on purpose, sustaining the “Romney won big” story by furiously making excuses for Obama’s poor performance. He didn’t do that badly, but listening to Obama himself, his campaign, and his bewildered surrogates the last few days you would think that Obama was utterly destroyed by some kind of evil genius who was equal parts master actor, pathological liar, and bully. You should watch the debate again to see how silly this is. And it’s hard to understand why the Democrats continue to advance this story. I bet that if you polled people today about who won and lost the debate, Obama would do even worse than he did in Wednesday night’s instant polls, thanks to his and his campaign’s continuing self flagellation.

I’d chalk that up to the power of disillusionment.  The fable of the emperor with no clothes doesn’t extend much beyond the wisdom of the young lad who points out the leader’s nakedness (and stupidity), but I would not be surprised if the coda to that story involved tar, feathers, and emperors and their sycophants, with some assembly required.  The people who bought the media line of Obama’s brilliance and rhetorical mastery have to wonder now whether they’ve been lied to all along — and that question will generate considerable anger toward those media sycophants who have been propping up this particularly naked emperor.  That may be why so many of those media sycophants have tried to get ahead of the anger by leading the charge.

Back to the main race.  Obama’s 50/45 lead from polling between 9/30-10/2 has dissipated to a 47/47 from polling between 10/4-10/6. The tracking poll shows something slightly different — but …

Gallup typically reports voter presidential preferences in seven-day rolling averages; the latest such average as of Saturday interviewing shows Obama with an average three-point edge, 49% to 46%, among registered voters. This Sept. 30-Oct. 6 field period includes three days before the Oct. 3 debate, the night of the debate itself, and three days after the debate.

Even on this basis, the race has become somewhat more competitive compared with before the first debate. Obama held four- to six-point leads in Gallup’s seven-day tracking results in the eight days prior to the Oct. 3 debate.

One more thing to keep in mind, too.  This polled registered voters, not likely voters.  Obama has had double-digit leads in some RV polls after the convention.  I suspect that the story among likely voters is quite a bit different …. and we will have some data on that later this morning.


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“ou notice it has slithered away since I humiliated him about using the 6 week old Missouri poll, but I have no doubt it will be back.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:23 AM”

Slithered away, lol.

I’ve been here all morning long and will be back later today.

I just can’t wait until election night when Ohio is called for Obama and you guys go into meltdown.

God, this is going to be fun.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:27 AM

You claim to be conservative, and looking forward to seeing Obama win a second term? You’re either an idiot, or a liar, or both.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:37 AM

“Bless your little cowardly heart.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:34 AM”

OK, since you’re so brave, how about you take up the bet that the others are too scared to make?

Romney wins and I leave the site. Obama wins and you leave the site.

How that little girl? You aren’t a coward, so those terms should be fair.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Along with a stronger ground game — Doster says it’s bigger and better organized than when Bush carried Duval County by 61,000 votes — the Romney campaign believes it will be able to win back Republicans who supported Obama. Source

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I can’t imagine that there are very many Republicans stupid enough to vote for Obama twice.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Ed, would you please, drop the Ban Hammer?

kingsjester on October 8, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Romney wins and I leave the site. Obama wins and you leave the site.

How that little girl? You aren’t a coward, so those terms should be fair.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Oh, gumby, I barely even pay attention to you but there’s not an old-timer here who doesn’t know the day after Romney is elected you’re going to go *poof*.

Marcus on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

So Flora Duh likes to talk tough but chicken’s out with accepting the bet.

Typical of the people here.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Ed, would you please, drop the Ban Hammer?

kingsjester on October 8, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Seconded. Time to take out the trash.

viking01 on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Oh, gumby, I barely even pay attention to you but there’s not an old-timer here who doesn’t know the day after Romney is elected you’re going to go *poof*.

Marcus on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Well played!

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:42 AM

“Oh, gumby, I barely even pay attention to you but there’s not an old-timer here who doesn’t know the day after Romney is elected you’re going to go *poof*.

Marcus on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM”

If somebody really, truly believed Romney was going to win, they would accept the bet. But they don’t because they know deep inside, it’s not going to happen and they can’t live without posting on some message board.

Sad, really…

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:42 AM

KOOLAID2,

you crack me up! Thanks for starting my day with a laugh as I head off to work.

Flora Duh,

you are a mighty warrior girl! Keep up the great work.

Jvette on October 8, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Ed time to flush .It, getting mighty full.

logman1 on October 8, 2012 at 11:45 AM

I’ve been here since Michelle Malkin opened the door on day one and I’ll gladly accept your bet because I know no way in hell is America going to put up with 4 more years of Obama.

There. Now shut yer yap.

Marcus on October 8, 2012 at 11:45 AM

“I’ve been here since Michelle Malkin opened the door on day one and I’ll gladly accept your bet because I know no way in hell is America going to put up with 4 more years of Obama.

There. Now shut yer yap.

Marcus on October 8, 2012 at 11:45 AM”

Marcus,

You’ve got more guts than girly, DELL and CW the COWARD put together.

I hope Romney wins so you get to stay. And I’m being serious. You are the only person here with the courage of your convictions.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:47 AM

OK, since you’re so brave, how about you take up the bet that the others are too scared to make?

Romney wins and I leave the site. Obama wins and you leave the site.

How that little girl? You aren’t a coward, so those terms should be fair.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:37 AM

So Flora Duh likes to talk tough but chicken’s out with accepting the bet.

Typical of the people here.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

I would like you show me one comment I’ve made – just one little boy – where I have said definitely that Romney will win the election.

That’s not my purpose for engaging with you. My purpose is to show you to be the ignorant troll that you are – and I do it with facts.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:49 AM

I hope Romney wins so you get to stay. And I’m being serious.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Oh-tay. And if you’re really really really serious you’ll be very very very quiet from now on and let the adults talk.

Marcus on October 8, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Romney is ahead, the question comes down to three states. You don’t need to win the popular vote, which is the track Obama is hoping for. The rest of it is garbage.

He is losing independents, voting enthusiasm is double digit on the GOP side. This is a narrow opening Obama is shooting for. He could make it. But I figure the odds are 70/30 Romney. I do not believe most of the legitimate pollsters have figured out how to deal with this.

I would suggest we put all our eeyore tendencies away and support your local GOP candidate. People no longer trust the media and I would suggest they don’t believe the latest job numbers either.

Gumby and others of his ilk are just noise from a desperate campaign praying they can use enough CHinese money and psych ops to discourage you and stop the vote. Obama will not be able to duplicate his 2008 performance. Just go out and beat him.

Zomcon JEM on October 8, 2012 at 11:50 AM

So Flora Duh likes to talk tough but chicken’s out with accepting the bet.

Typical of the people here.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

You still haven’t answered the challenges I gave you on page 2.

Why not – coward?

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Marcus on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

…dumb fluke #11

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:56 AM

The Dems might be cleverly playing the expectations game, lowering expectations bar for Obama in the second debate, which doubtlessly will have an enormous viewership. With the way that the Dems have been demeaning Obama’s performance, all Obama has to do is not drool on himself, and he will be named the winner of the second debate by acclaim–and he will be the comeback kid/underdog. In other words, they are setting the stage for the big comeback story. The Romney people would be wise to get out in front of this…

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 10:15 AM

This doesn’t worry me. The major factor in our favor is Romney’s consistency as a debater. This was illustrated throughout the primary season. He does even better when it’s one-on-one.

Obama, on the other hand, does poorly in such contexts. He hems and haws, lacks coherence in his thought processes, and is just plain boring without a teleprompter. The next townhall format would therefore pose more of a problem for him than for Romney since it provides the kind of loose parameters that encourage his worst tendencies. Rather than sounding presidential, in such contexts Obama sounds more like a badly prepared c-student offering a snow job.

The third debate, on foreign policy, would further help Romney by allowing him to focus on Obama’s recent foreign policy failures.

writeblock on October 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Rep. up 13 points in enthusiasm gap and up 51 to 35 among Independents and still most polls have it even.So i guess 60% of the country is Democrat.What else could explain these numbers.I am totally confused.

logman1 on October 8, 2012 at 12:01 PM

How that little girl? You aren’t a coward, so those terms should be fair.

Jumpyandporky on October 8, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Listen, a$$hat, nobody here needs to wager anything with you. The day after the election you’re going to wake up a passive-aggressive, chickensh!t little emotional dwarf that lives vicariously -through a keyboard- in a fantasy world wherein you envision yourself as some sort of Bruce Willis anti-hero type. Just like this morning

How utterly pathetic, troll-boy. How much more could anyone take.from you? Any wager with you is meaningless as your intent to honor the terms are as non-existent as reality is n your world.

Keep pounding that ‘keyboard’, Corky.

M240H on October 8, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:51 AM

…sweetie!…I already took its bet…when it can get you to respond to it- it has hit Hot Air heavan…its eyes are rolling in back of its head-the tounge is hanging out…and its gumming up the drains in moms basement while it stands there… in just its socks!

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 12:01 PM

M240H on October 8, 2012 at 12:01 PM

dumb fluke #12

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Marcus on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

…dumb fluke #11

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 11:56 AM

What’s your point with these dumb fluke posts?

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:02 PM

writeblock on October 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Well… I tend to agree with what you said. However, the thing that bothers me is that there is no way–short of reducing Obama to tears on stage– that Romney could possibly live up to the hype that is being generated about the debate performance. In that instance, Romney what be competing against Romney anymore, but rather, an imaginary Romney. Maybe I worry too much…

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:07 PM

What’s your point with these dumb fluke posts?

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:02 PM

…not to hard to figure out

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 12:17 PM

…not to hard to figure out

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 12:17 PM

I don’t disagree with you very often darlin’, but yeah it is, if one didn’t read the threads yesterday.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

I don’t disagree with you very often darlin’, but yeah it is, if one didn’t read the threads yesterday.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 12:19 PM

but the numbers correspond to the people engaging it today…these people aren’t dumb democrats

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 12:24 PM

It could be a rout in November. If Romney takes CO–which he will–and OH, FL and VA–it’s all over. Meanwhile WI and MI look doable. IA looking good. NH looking good.

Looked at from another angle: youth vote down, Jewish vote down, Catholic vote down, Hispanic vote down, swing state registrations down, Dem enthusiasm down–and all this was before the emperor appeared naked before 70 million people.

writeblock on October 8, 2012 at 12:26 PM

Barack Obama, la, la, la.
The man who isn’t there.

VorDaj on October 8, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Well… I tend to agree with what you said. However, the thing that bothers me is that there is no way–short of reducing Obama to tears on stage– that Romney could possibly live up to the hype that is being generated about the debate performance. In that instance, Romney what be competing against Romney anymore, but rather, an imaginary Romney. Maybe I worry too much…

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:07 PM

One thing in Romney’s favor–his consistency as a performer. He has a command of the facts. Obama hasn’t. He is crisp and clear. Obama rambles and is often incoherent. He is energetic and vigorous. Obama often is lethargic and boring.

Obama will be better next time around no doubt. But the format is one that would encourage his worst tendencies–to ramble, to exaggerate, to filibuster.

writeblock on October 8, 2012 at 12:39 PM

…not to hard to figure out

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 12:17 PM

I don’t read minds. But if you don’t care enough of about it to explain yourself, then I won’t give it another thought.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:41 PM

You claim to be conservative, and looking forward to seeing Obama win a second term? You’re either an idiot, or a liar, or both.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Not only that but this liar claims that he would be voting for Romney… Just based on his brazen lies this a**hole troll gumpyandpokey must be banned from this site. He offers nothing but lies and distortions on this site…

Ed, please ban this troll gumpyandpokey…

mnjg on October 8, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Typical of the people here.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:41 AM

I’m not a betting person….and far from typical.

I have only read a couple of comments on this thread, but it seems people around here don’t like you. Why is that?

MichaelGabriel on October 8, 2012 at 12:44 PM

You still haven’t answered the challenges I gave you on page 2.
Why not – coward?
Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:51 AM

The monkey is just wildly flinging poop as Obama’s chickens come home to roost. Too bad, Dandy Son isn’t still with us to sing it a lullaby.

whatcat on October 8, 2012 at 12:48 PM

That’s not my purpose for engaging with you. My purpose is to show you to be the ignorant troll that you are – and I do it with facts.

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Waste of time, Flora.

writeblock on October 8, 2012 at 12:26 PM

NH is looking real good from the number of Romney signs and anti Obama signs in people’s cars. People in NH showed their anger with the spend crazy socialists in 2010 and that anger has only grown deeper and broader since.

Gallup and Rass need to get a clue and use that turnout model. We have seen THAT model repeat over and over since 2009 as people across the nation repudiate Zero.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Obama will be better next time around no doubt. But the format is one that would encourage his worst tendencies–to ramble, to exaggerate, to filibuster.

writeblock on October 8, 2012 at 12:39 PM

The questions that Obama gets are going to be carefully screened.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:50 PM

The questions that Obama gets are going to be carefully screened.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:50 PM

They will pull out all the stops to help him, but he will fail and flail anyway. He cannot help himself.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM

They will pull out all the stops to help him, but he will fail and flail anyway. He cannot help himself.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM

From your lips to God’s ears…

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Seriously, it’s time to ban the poll troll.

changer1701 on October 8, 2012 at 12:54 PM

They will pull out all the stops to help him, but he will fail and flail anyway. He cannot help himself.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 12:52 PM

From your lips to God’s ears…

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM

I meant to quote you, not to strike it. Sorry!

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Seriously, it’s time to ban the poll troll.

changer1701 on October 8, 2012 at 12:54 PM

There’s no point in banning him. He’s too feeble to worry about.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:56 PM

gumbyandpokey : Nothing solid on the inside, easily bent.
A wise choice for a handle.

MichaelGabriel on October 8, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Forgive my ignorant question: is g&p a confirmed Obama supporter, or someone calling himself/herself a conservative who simply didn’t like that Romney was the nominee?

bmmg39 on October 8, 2012 at 1:04 PM

The questions that Obama gets are going to be carefully screened.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Won’t matter. He’ll still give boring responses. The man is dead inside. There is no there there.

writeblock on October 8, 2012 at 1:05 PM

I meant to quote you, not to strike it. Sorry!

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 12:54 PM

No worries. Fact is, if Skippy actually had the tools and the facts he wouldn’t have been crushed in the first debate.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 1:06 PM

NH is looking real good from the number of Romney signs and anti Obama signs in people’s cars. People in NH showed their anger with the spend crazy socialists in 2010 and that anger has only grown deeper and broader since.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Considering we’re a “swing state”, it’s surprising how little “polling” has been done here in NH in the past 2 months. And Rassmussen hasn’t released any NH results since mid September.

The most recent “poll” is an outlier, as it has O’bamna up in NH by…15? The same “poll” had him up by 5 only 2 weeks prior to that.

BTW, the ARG “polling” firm is located in Manchester. One of their employees is Axelrod’s son. Their most recent “poll” in NH has O’bamna up 5.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 1:09 PM

This is worth a read:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/10/why_obama_will_lose_all_3_debates.html

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Yeah, that +15 done by WMUR is a complete fabrication. I see Romney signs everywhere, but just one for Obama.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Wait so the Gallup tracking poll just updated and said Obama was up 5. Where is this 47-47 number coming from? Is that from a two-day poll conducted just after the debates? The Gallup Tracking poll shows Obama up 5……

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Nope… Here’s the link.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM

So you guys want to get excited by a poll that is hopelessly out of date since it came before the ATOMIC BOMB 7.8 number, which Rasmussen said on Fox this morning was the turning point in Obama’s rising approval rating and poll numbers?

Whatever floats your boat.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 11:09 AM

7.8% unemployment is an atomic bomb number?

Riddle me this, Yoda, if the economy really added 873,000 jobs in September — which would be the biggest one month job increase in 29 years (and in November 1983 the annualised GDP was 8.5% while it is a mere 1.3% today) — but employers only reported an additional 114,000 jobs last month, why isn’t the IRS all over those 759,000 people who told the BLS on the telephone that they had found work because someone isn’t paying payroll taxes and meeting other reporting requirements?

Also, didn’t the Obama administration promise that, if we passed the Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Stimulus Act of 2009, unemployment would be 7.8% in September 2009 and 5.6% in September 2012?

Lastly, it’s not 1940 and Obama is no FDR.

Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Nope… Here’s the link.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157907/romney-narrows-vote-gap-historic-debate-win.aspx

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 1:22 PM

And then there is this:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

And thats based on a 7 day rolling average. So isn’t it likely that the 47-47 number is based on a smaller set of days. Those immediately following the debates? Seems like if there was a Romney bounce it has faded.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Is that from a two-day poll conducted just after the debates?

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 1:20 PM

The only poll that matters at this point:
Nearly 70 million people watched the debate. 72% saw Romney as the clear winner.

That means on Wednesday, October 3, 50 million Amercans saw Obama as a limp, weak, loser.

MichaelGabriel on October 8, 2012 at 1:34 PM

And thats based on a 7 day rolling average. So isn’t it likely that the 47-47 number is based on a smaller set of days. Those immediately following the debates? Seems like if there was a Romney bounce it has faded.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Did you read the article at the link?

FTA:

Gallup typically reports voter presidential preferences in seven-day rolling averages; the latest such average as of Saturday interviewing shows Obama with an average three-point edge, 49% to 46%, among registered voters. This Sept. 30-Oct. 6 field period includes three days before the Oct. 3 debate, the night of the debate itself, and three days after the debate.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 1:37 PM

This doesn’t worry me. The major factor in our favor is Romney’s consistency as a debater. This was illustrated throughout the primary season. He does even better when it’s one-on-one.

Obama, on the other hand, does poorly in such contexts. He hems and haws, lacks coherence in his thought processes, and is just plain boring without a teleprompter. The next townhall format would therefore pose more of a problem for him than for Romney since it provides the kind of loose parameters that encourage his worst tendencies. Rather than sounding presidential, in such contexts Obama sounds more like a badly prepared c-student offering a snow job.

The third debate, on foreign policy, would further help Romney by allowing him to focus on Obama’s recent foreign policy failures.

writeblock on October 8, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Obama did fine in many debates.

Romney did poorly in a few.

You are counting your chickens before they hatch.

Obama will be forced to prepare for the next debate. That is assuming he did not do poorly on purpose. I think he did that to set the bar low on the last two debates. His plan to enthuse the base must be a complicated one.

But even with all of this it is tied. Romney has very little real support. He should be blowing Obama away Obama is not at all liked. The economy and foreign a complete mess.

Steveangell on October 8, 2012 at 1:54 PM

MichaelGabriel on October 8, 2012 at 12:44 PM

…since you didn’t read much of the threads lately…you avoided a dumb f*@k enumeration. (:->)

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 2:01 PM

Gallup typically reports voter presidential preferences in seven-day rolling averages; the latest such average as of Saturday interviewing shows Obama with an average three-point edge, 49% to 46%, among registered voters. This Sept. 30-Oct. 6 field period includes three days before the Oct. 3 debate, the night of the debate itself, and three days after the debate.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Did *you* go to the gallup homepage? The 7 day rolling average now includes October 1-7. Which means *more* of the polling was conducted since the debate and Obama has risen since Saturday back to 50-45 advantage.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 2:04 PM

The only poll that matters at this point:
Nearly 70 million people watched the debate. 72% saw Romney as the clear winner.

That means on Wednesday, October 3, 50 million Amercans saw Obama as a limp, weak, loser.

MichaelGabriel on October 8, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Which means lots of people who plan on voting for Obama still saw Romney as the winner of the debate (as evidenced by the howling on the left). But this post is instructive. Before last week the only poll that mattered was on November 7th, on Thursday the only poll that mattered was the We Ask America and Rasmussen polls showing a bump for Romney. Now that the bump has faded the only poll that matters is the one showing Romney won the debate. In other words, the only polls that matter are ones that confirm your fantasy version of reality.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 2:15 PM

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Keep spinning, perfesser.

It’s quite amusing.

kingsjester on October 8, 2012 at 2:26 PM

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Don’t stand facing into the wind when you do that.

You’ll get yourself all wet.

MichaelGabriel on October 8, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Gallup economist: Friday’s job numbers should be ‘discounted’

Jacobe sounded a skeptical note about the nearly 900,000 jobs created, as reported by the Labor Department’s seasonally adjusted household survey.

“This surge in hiring seems surprisingly large given the current economy,” Jacobe wrote.

“The obvious conclusion is that a new employment measure is needed,” he added later.

Gallup does their own unemployment survey and consistently has similar results to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In mid-September, they predicted the unemployment rate could be as low as 7.9 percent, but would probably be 8 percent or higher.

“[I]t seems unlikely that the government will report another major drop in the size of the workforce after showing an unadjusted decline of 1.27 million and an adjusted decline of 368,000 in the workforce in August,” wrote Jacobe in September.

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/08/gallup-economist-fridays-job-numbers-should-be-discounted/

Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 2:53 PM

@markos

This week’s dkos/SEIU weekly poll has Romney in the lead. Bulk of calls were made Thu & Fri, after R’s post-debate bounce. Details Tuesday http://tinyurl.com/9fpgbqf

Flora Duh on October 8, 2012 at 2:57 PM

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 2:04 PM

The front page article has the latest updated rolling average information in it, since they make a point of discussing it. Anyway it’s all moot since they use a screwed sample.

Then as others point put above Gallup has come out saying the job numbers crafted by the Census bureau should be “discounted.” Translation: They’re FAKE!

That took some balls, Gallup. Now fix your sample. Use the 2010 turnout model and see what’s really going on.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 3:09 PM

the only poll that matters is the one showing Romney won the debate. In other words, the only polls that matter are ones that confirm your fantasy version of reality.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Chrissy Mathews’ meltdown followed by all of Zero’s media worshipers isn’t a fantasy.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 3:16 PM

So where’s all the screaming about skewed polls?

It wasn’t hard to predict that if the polls showed a boost for Romney, Republicans would have no trouble finding them to be entirely believable.

Obama Haters don’t even have the decency to be embarrassed their actions.

chumpThreads on October 8, 2012 at 3:33 PM

As usual for Hot Air/right wingers ,the new gallup for today comes out and President Obama is back up 5 points and no comments on this thread about it,see ya bounce

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 3:52 PM

If Gallup were president, this would be an Obamateurism:

Gallup’s misleading headline reads, “Romney Narrows Vote Gap After Historic Debate Win.” (Romney did not narrow the gap; he eliminated the gap.)

Gallup remarks, “[T]he race has become somewhat more competitive compared with before the first debate.” (The race is not “somewhat more competitive.” It is competitive. Before the October 3 debate Obama led 50–45 in the Gallup poll.)

Colony14 on October 8, 2012 at 3:55 PM

your fantasy version of reality.

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 2:15 PM

We all have our fantasy version of reality.

I like and enjoy mine.

Therein lies the difference.

MichaelGabriel on October 8, 2012 at 4:03 PM

How about that Gallup tracking poll?

Of course, not a word said about it. But I told you what would happen in that and Rasmussen.

And the Rasmussen Consumer Confidence numbers jumped 8% today to 93.2

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Obama did fine in many debates.

Romney did poorly in a few.

Correction: Obama did passably-well, never fine, in some previous debates against contenders as clueless as he was. He has never come up against a heavyweight.

Romney has never done poorly in any debate. He more than holds his own, no matter what the context–even when he has weak positions to defend, such as his own passage of Romneycare.

You are counting your chickens before they hatch.

On the contrary, they’ve already hatched. Romney’s up in OH, he’s up in VA, he’s up in FL. Heck, he’s even up in WI and PA.

Obama will be forced to prepare for the next debate.

What good would it do him except force him to memorize more soundbites? His problem is he can’t think coherently or express himself clearly. He’ll still be boring and stammer a lot.

That is assuming he did not do poorly on purpose. I think he did that to set the bar low on the last two debates. His plan to enthuse the base must be a complicated one.

Wow. Ingenious. I’ll bet he intends to lose in November as well. It’s all part of his incredibly brilliant death-wish. It’s never that Obama is just plain dull-witted and even boring. That can’t possibly be true, given the great speeches he gave with the aid of a teleprompter. So it must be something else because he’s smarter than anybody else–even when he’s obviously outclassed and loses big time.

But even with all of this it is tied. Romney has very little real support. He should be blowing Obama away Obama is not at all liked. The economy and foreign a complete mess.

Keep telling yourself this. It’s always consoling to lie to yourself when the facts are threatening.

Steveangell on October 8, 2012 at 1:54 PM

writeblock on October 8, 2012 at 4:39 PM

I just don’t understand how this race can be close.

KMC1 on October 8, 2012 at 9:34 AM

The leftist socialist reflexes now run deeper in the American electorate than ever before. The media saturates the nation with leftist spin and propaganda with it. The public schools force feed it to kids. In today’s America FDR and JFK would be considered a bit right-of-center.

Also, about 45% of the electorate will almost mindlessly vote for anyone with a D after their name. That includes many who call themselves independents. And about 10-15% of the electorate is wishy-washy and can change their mind day-to-day.

farsighted on October 8, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Pew: Romney 49, Obama 45

just breaking on Politico.com and Drudge Report.

hey Gumbypokeme, what were you saying about Carter being stuck around 47 percent and that is why he lost- but Obama is always around 49%..

romney now only trails in the RCP average (REGISTERED voter polls included where GOP does much worse than LIKELY voters) by .7%…

AirForceCane on October 8, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Obama Haters

chumpThreads on October 8, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I’ve been here on Hot Gas a lot longer than you have, Peorgie, and I’ve not evidenced any “hatred” here towards O’bamna personally, except for the assorted drive-by troublemaker.

What we hate are his anti-American Leftist Ideals, and how he is trying to enact them. And we would hate those ideals no matter who he was-African American, Native American, Caucasian, whatever.

Why you folks can’t understand that simple fact is the reason your Party has a monopoly on the High School Dropout Vote, and always will.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Pew: Romney 49, Obama 45

just breaking on Politico.com and Drudge Report.

AirForceCane on October 8, 2012 at 4:43 PM

7.8% Atomic Bomb has spoken.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Obama will be forced to prepare for the next debate.

He prepared for the last debate….more than any other president of the modern era according to NBC.

I think he did that to set the bar low on the last two debates. His plan to enthuse the base must be a complicated one.

You would think that, captain one-track, lol.

xblade on October 8, 2012 at 5:16 PM

7.8% Atomic Bomb has spoken.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:50 PM

The internals on the PEW poll are very tough for Skippy. (and gummy )

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 5:16 PM

As usual for Hot Air/right wingers ,the new gallup for today comes out and President Obama is back up 5 points and no comments on this thread about it,see ya bounce

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Gee, you seem to have the same reading comprehension issue as gummy.

The updated tracking poll is in the headline article, and the front page probably hasn’t been updated yet, but when it is you’re probably not gonna like it. All the polls are trending to Romney, probably because the LSM media can’t stop gushing about Romney’s historic debate smackdown of the genius orator.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Hmmm I just checked gallup again and U2 and gummy are correct that the tracking does show Obama ahead 50 to 45. What I don’t know is how they square that with the daily tracking poll they cite in the headline article.

All I can say guys is, enjoy that while it lasts. As I said above everything is moving the other way.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 5:26 PM

“On the contrary, they’ve already hatched. Romney’s up in OH, he’s up in VA, he’s up in FL. Heck, he’s even up in WI and PA.”

What poll shows Romney ahead in WI or PA?

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 6:02 PM

“Hmmm I just checked gallup again and U2 and gummy are correct that the tracking does show Obama ahead 50 to 45. What I don’t know is how they square that with the daily tracking poll they cite in the headline article.

All I can say guys is, enjoy that while it lasts. As I said above everything is moving the other way.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 5:26 PM”

We’ll know tomorrow who is right and who is wrong. Rasmussen will be out bright and early and the Monday sample will be added, and if it was just the “weekend factor” then Romney will be back in the lead. If Obama is ahead, then the 7.8 ATOMIC BOMB has obliterated the debate bounce.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 6:04 PM

http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/08/gallup-economist-fridays-job-numbers-should-be-discounted/

Resist We Much on October 8, 2012 at 2:53 PM

That, was a great read. Thank you, Sir.

hawkdriver on October 8, 2012 at 7:33 PM

There is some liberal out there who is swearing up and down Gallup still has O with a 5 point lead… and RCP is being very confusing on the issue…it has the two polls out today, averaged I guess… but underneath they still show O up 5.

I guess the lib troll who keeps posting the +5 number is using the RCP mistake… but really RCP is not what it used to be.

petunia on October 8, 2012 at 8:49 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Well I got the answer to my question. The seven day tracking poll included days before the debate and Sunday as well, but the other poll mentioned in the headline article is a three day average AFTER the debate.

Romney is actually ahead as he has been for some time.

dogsoldier on October 9, 2012 at 8:44 AM

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