Can Romney sustain the post-debate “bounce?”

posted at 1:21 pm on October 8, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

It’s a good question, for a couple of reasons.  First, I think we can establish that Mitt Romney has gotten a bounce from his overwhelming debate win on Wednesday, and that it’s not just an outlier result any longer. But the question still exists as to whether this is a “bounce,” as The Week assumes, which will have a parabola impact, or a pivot point in public opinion that will change the race and momentum.  In their roundup, The Week quotes three commentators with different perspectives on the matter (including our friend Andrew Malcolm), but let’s let TW simply frame the question here:

A flurry of new polls indicate that Mitt Romney got a lift from hisstrong debate performance last week, pulling roughly even with President Obama nationwide. Romney also appears to have chipped away at or eliminated Obama’s lead in several critical swing states, including Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Gallup’s latest seven-day tracking poll, for example, showed Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among registered voters in the three days leading up to last week’s televised clash; afterward, they were deadlocked at 47 percent apiece. Will Romney’s post-debate bounce be fleeting, or has it fundamentally altered the race?

I’m inclined to think it has fundamentally altered the race, for a few reasons — some of which I predicted in my pre-debate analysis.  Romney had his first opportunity to stand on the same stage as Obama as an equal and talk over the heads of the media directly to voters.  That would have helped him even if Obama had done better in the debate, by both humanizing Romney while elevating his stature. With Romney clearly and decisively out-debating Obama, it has elevated him perhaps past Obama in stature, a very bad outcome for an incumbent — and a bell that is almost impossible to unring.  That’s why I considered the first debate the most important of the three.

Second, the biggest reason (although hardly the only one) that Obama failed so badly was that he has still not articulated any kind of a vision for his second term.  Instead, he spent the debate offering a vague stay-the-course argument while attacking Romney’s proposals, which is still to this day the only agenda on the table for the next four years.  In order to fix that problem, Obama has to launch a clear vision of how he will change the current economic trajectory in the next four years other than a promise to raise Mitt Romney’s taxes.  Instead, he’s still griping about Romney while refusing to explain why he wants another term at all — which lost Friday Night Lights creator and life-long Democrat Buzz Bissinger at The Daily Beast:

At the debate, Romney did not simply act like he wanted to be president. He wants to be president. He showed vigor, and enthusiasm, and excitement, a man who wants to lead. It may all be ephemeral, because most of politics is ephemeral, a cynical means to the end of getting elected. But he also revealed compassion that, during the entirety of this absurdly long march, had never been in evidence before. He recognized the needs of the poor. He recognized the need for regulation.

His tax plan was admittedly mystery meat. But the tag he has lied is unfair. To the contrary, he has recognized that his original proposal is more screwed up than the infield fly rule, not to mention mathematically impossible. So he is modifying it, coming up with a possible alternative in recent weeks that deductions should be capped at $17,000. Even the liberal party boys, like The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein, reluctantly admitted in the typical liberal style that it might have merit one of these millennia. I think Romney realizes that lowering the marginal rate to 20 percent will not fly if he is to lower the deficit and make the plan work. And he is hardly the only candidate to assert something during a campaign that will change once in his office. As I recall, Obama vowed to cut the deficit in half.

Democratic supporters offered the usual antidotes to Obama’s debate performance: he was tired from running the country, the mile-high air got to him (which is why Al Gore is better off with the midlife crisis of a beard). But I don’t see Obama spending much time running the country, unless you count his recent appearance on The View, where he was far more animated and charming than during the debate. …

Four years ago, all Obama had to do was speak and everyone swooned. That was four years ago. It is now four years later. He is no longer the chosen one. He is just too cool for school in a country desperate for the infectiousness of rejuvenation.

Romney has it.

Our president no longer does.

Amelia Chasse of Hynes Communications pointed out on Fox and Friends this morning that the reaction over the last few days suggests that Obama and his campaign still haven’t figured this out:

People don’t respect those who offer excuses for bad performance, and Romney made me fail by confusing me isn’t exactly a confidence-building measure for voters choosing the next Leader Of The Free World.  Is Obama similarly nonplussed by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s declarations?

Combine this with the month-long-and-still-continuing debacle of the Obama administration’s handling of the Benghazi terror attack, and the impression from the debate and its aftermath is that Obama is in way over his head — which is what people concluded about Obama’s economic stewardship a couple of years ago, too.  Not only is Obama flailing and drifting, but he seems unaware of the fact that he is flailing and drifting.  Unless Obama begins communicating a clear agenda for a second term with a solid explanation of how that will improve over his D- first term, Romney looks like the only adult in the room.  And that may turn this from a bounce to a game-changer.

Michael Ramirez puts this succinctly and eloquently, as he always does, in Friday’s editorial cartoon for Investors Business Daily:

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Comment pages: 1 2

OT: Where’s that story about Obama’s fraud donations, that still coming out today?

rndmusrnm on October 8, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Preference Cascade. Avalanches don’t go back uphill.

Rocks on October 8, 2012 at 1:24 PM

The bounce is already fading, killed by the phony jobs report.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:25 PM

I think Ramirez should emphasize Reagan’s hairdo more than his eyebrows or chin. Otherwise, create cartoon.

Christien on October 8, 2012 at 1:27 PM

The speech this morning will help to sustain the bounce.

aunursa on October 8, 2012 at 1:27 PM

that Obama and his campaign still haven’t figured this out:

don’t help them out…

cmsinaz on October 8, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Who knows? You’d have to accurately sample a large number of people to have a legitimate poll. We’ve found they can’t seem to do that. Only 9% of the people answer polls.

Then, you’d have to have an honest media that didn’t try to skew the aforementioned polls for their own partisan purposes. We don’t have that.

How could we possibly discuss a bounce under those circumstances?

We could just have an election.

trigon on October 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

I LOLzing at the empty HIGH CHAIR!!!!

perfect Ramirez !!!

ted c on October 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

The bounce is already fading, killed by the phony jobs report.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Fading you say . . . where’s the proof of that comment?

rplat on October 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

I so hope that Michael Tomasky suffocates from eating Obama’s sh*t.

Schadenfreude on October 8, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Yes, Romney got a bounce from his amazing debate performance, BUT, the current surge runs much deeper – the debate simply came at the exact moment when it benefitted Romney the most – Romney will continue to rise to the top as obama continues to circle the drain.

Pork-Chop on October 8, 2012 at 1:30 PM

For Obama to make a profound change and really get the country running again, he’s going to have to go against almost every liberal precept and policy that the Left has backed all along. He can’t even really move to the center without sacrificing many of those principles.

Liam on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Fading you say . . . where’s the proof of that comment?

rplat on October 8, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Go check Rasmussen and Gallup today. Rasmussen has race back to tied and Obama widened lead by two points from yesterday with Gallup.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

With Romney clearly and decisively out-debating Obama, it has elevated him perhaps past Obama in stature…That’s why I considered the first debate the most important of the three.

I think that you’re right. It was the first true and valid comparison of the two in a head to head confrontation. obama came out of there with diddly.

ted c on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

The New Yorker cover really opened the floodgates. Even liberals now see Obama as an empty chair. I think Democratic enthusiasm is going to plummet in the next few weeks while Republican enthusiasm will skyrocket. That will tell the tale.

rockmom on October 8, 2012 at 1:33 PM

I so hope that Michael Tomasky suffocates from eating Obama’s sh*t.

Schadenfreude on October 8, 2012 at 1:29 PM

He thinks it’s foie gras.

slickwillie2001 on October 8, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Go check Rasmussen and Gallup today. Rasmussen has race back to tied and Obama widened lead by two points from yesterday with Gallup.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

It’s hard to equate that with the bounce fading. Historically a lot of polls favor Democrats over the weekend.

Doughboy on October 8, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Romney had his first opportunity to stand on the same stage as Obama as an equal and show that he’s more qualified than BHO in every imaginable way. From economic knowledge to intelligence to wit to intellect to temperament to — hell — oratorical skills.

FIFY

SoRight on October 8, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Go check Rasmussen and Gallup today. Rasmussen has race back to tied and Obama widened lead by two points from yesterday with Gallup.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

In all honesty it’s still tied amongst those who actually answer polls. Being a student of statistics (both literally when I was still in school and figuratively in the sense that I’m just fascinated with them) anything inside the margin of error (usually at least +- 3 percentage points) should just be treated as statistical noise and nothing more.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 1:36 PM

The Biden/Ryan debate is going to provide such juicy campaign fodder, that it’s going to take every bit of wind out of 0bama’s sails for a week at least.

Rebar on October 8, 2012 at 1:36 PM

With 65 million viewers, and probably more in the next debate to see if Obama gets mauled again, yes, Romney can not only sustain the bounce, but increase it IF he hits Obam just as hard on Foreign policy as he did on domestic policy. Romney must make Obama lie about fast and furious and then expose those lies, and do the same on Benghazi. He needs to ask him why was he putting our security above politics by telling Russia that he would have more flexibilty AFTER the election. Romney cannot let up. If he keeps Obama on the ropes, he will win.

they lie on October 8, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Barry’s incompetence is the bell that keeps on ringing. Some people simply choose to remain deaf, but thanks to Barry’s too-loud-to-ignore failures, more voters are beginning to hear the Team O death rattle.

Slainte on October 8, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Unless Obama begins communicating a clear agenda for a second term with a solid explanation of how that will improve over his D- first term

He doesn’t want to tell people what he’ll do because it will be a repeat of the last four years, i.e. corruption, raping the treasury to pay off his cronies, buying votes with entitlement programs, spiraling deficits, lack of cooperation with Congress, higher taxes, fewer jobs…..

and more golf and Executive Orders.

Cody1991 on October 8, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Romney’s advantage: He’s the same success story he was before the debate.

Obama’s disadvantage: He’s the same nothing he was before the debate.

viking01 on October 8, 2012 at 1:37 PM

I think the debate was a game-changer. It gave people who were not happy with Obama a great excuse to consider Romney. It’s may not be a full pivot but I believe final analysis will show that this is more than a mere bounce.

Mitt Romney, including today, is out there talking about the issues while Team Barry is spending the time calling Romney a liar, scaring stupid special interest groups, and lying themselves about virtually every aspect of this failed administration.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 1:37 PM

If Mitt can keep doing what he did today with that speech, he will keep the bounce, IMO! Mitt/team needs to get ads on the tube with bho’s words what he would/has done to crater us. Ryan needs to do a good job against dear joe, shouldn’t be hard to do! And WE have to vote, don’t stay home, don’t vote 3rd, VOTE!
L

letget on October 8, 2012 at 1:37 PM

His support has always been mostly pop culture phenomenon. Such things can fade quite quickly.

xuyee on October 8, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I know Romney is winning because the Romney team are acting like he’s winning.

I know Obama is losing because the Obama team are acting like he is losing.

john bono on October 8, 2012 at 1:38 PM

The Regime’s reaction to it is transforming it from a bounce to something that’ll hold up.

“We lost big because Romney lied” is a lousy strategy. First, if he lied Obama had ample opportunity to tear the lies apart, but failed to do so. It makes Obama look even weaker than he actually was. That’s tough to do.

forest on October 8, 2012 at 1:40 PM

People don’t respect those who offer bad excuses for bad performance,

There, fixed that for you, Ed.

Sterling Holobyte on October 8, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Go check Rasmussen and Gallup today. Rasmussen has race back to tied and Obama widened lead by two points from yesterday with Gallup.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Romney and Obama are tied from Oct 4-6 in Gallup. Obama’s lead in Gallup comes from a big approval outlier in the days before the debate. Gallup uses a 7-day average.

midgeorgian on October 8, 2012 at 1:41 PM

With 65 million viewers, and probably more in the next debate to see if Obama gets mauled again, yes, Romney can not only sustain the bounce,

they lie on October 8, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Can you imagine the Thursday morning conference in Chicago. “Okay everybody we’re going to go out there and pretend that last night didn’t happen.”

Seriously, these debates are supposed to be spun as a win by both sides and instead there was a stark contrast between a serious adult looking to become President and the spoiled rat-eared baby that is.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 1:41 PM

One man’s bounce, is another man’s cascade.

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 1:42 PM

The bounce is already fading, killed by the phony jobs report.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Did you not see the Battleground poll, which shows Romney within a point with a +8 Dem sample, even though most of it was done before the debate took place?

The jobs report may have helped Obama blunt a little of the mo Romney saw coming out of the debate, but most people still believe we’re on the wrong track. Most know their personal situation isn’t better, or perhaps worse, and that is the key.Plus, Romney can come back at Obama with a flurry of statistics and personal anecdotes from the trail, should Obama try to make hay out of it when they debate again.

changer1701 on October 8, 2012 at 1:42 PM

The bounce is already fading, killed by the phony jobs report.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Maybe.

The Rasmussen Consumer Confidence numbers jumped 8% today to 93.2

sentinelrules on October 8, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Go check Rasmussen and Gallup today. Rasmussen has race back to tied and Obama widened lead by two points from yesterday with Gallup.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

I’d hardly consider a shift within the MOE “killed.” Granted, I don’t really consider national polls anything more than a pulse at one point in time anyway; it’s the battleground state polls that are worth being payed attention.

onetrickpony on October 8, 2012 at 1:43 PM

1984 in real life on October 8, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Maybe if you keep scrolling down on the front page, you might find out for yourself.

Ed Morrissey on October 8, 2012 at 1:43 PM

It depends on Joe Biden.

SouthernGent on October 8, 2012 at 1:43 PM

You claim to be conservative, and looking forward to seeing Obama win a second term? You’re either an idiot, or a liar, or both.

ghostwriter on October 8, 2012 at 11:37 AM

The metrics of winning and losing this race remain the same and hence the defeat for Obama… Obama has a much less enthusiastic base than in 2008 and there is a number of “White Voters” who voted for Obama in 2008 that are going to vote for Romney in 2012. So based on simple math if 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 stay home in 2012 combined with 10% of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 switching and voting for Romney in 2012 then Obama is going to lose the elections. The Math cannot be challenged here…

Look around you, no need for polling to tell you this, and you know that based on the numbers I showed you above Obama is going to lose the elections…

mnjg on October 8, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Romney can assertively refute the following five lies of the Obysmal campaign repeatedly:
http://news.investors.com/100312-627990-presidents-case-for-re-election-rests-on-five-claims-all-phony.aspx?p=full

onlineanalyst on October 8, 2012 at 1:44 PM

A flurry of new polls indicate that Mitt Romney got a lift from hisstrong debate performance last week, pulling roughly even with President Obama nationwide. Romney also appears to have chipped away at or eliminated Obama’s lead in several critical swing states, including Florida, Virginia, and Ohio.

First off:

Old & Busted: Don’t believe the polls, they are rigged.

New Hotness: Lovin’ me some polls (they are so credible).

2nd, sustaining the bounce is up to MITT ROMNEY.

PappyD61 on October 8, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Maybe if you keep scrolling down on the front page, you might find out for yourself.

Ed Morrissey on October 8, 2012 at 1:43 PM

:)

Now, let’s see if the MFM actually covers this, or buries it Fast and Furious style

1984 in real life on October 8, 2012 at 1:47 PM

“We lost big because Romney lied” is a lousy strategy. First, if he lied Obama had ample opportunity to tear the lies apart, but failed to do so. It makes Obama look even weaker than he actually was. That’s tough to do.

forest on October 8, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Don’t forget the attack on Big Bird meme. Nevermind that Big Bird nets millions of dollars in products each year, somehow it is an attack on children to question if the taxpayers need to pay for Big Bird’s air time. And BTW, the taxpayer’s money doesn’t go directly to Big Bird but to stations who buy the show. So if anything, Romney is attacking NPR/CPB and questioning why the government owns a television system in the age where the public has literally hundreds of choices.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Go check Rasmussen and Gallup today. Rasmussen has race back to tied and Obama widened lead by two points from yesterday with Gallup.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

I read the Gallup report and the average includes three days before the debate and the day of the debate, so it is hardly accurate. The daily tracking poll has Romney up 5 with a screwed up sample.

The fake jobs report didn’t move the needle at all, since the LSM is still spending all their time trying to “explain” and “defend” the report which means they already lost the argument. That report hurt Zero more than it helped him.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 1:47 PM

The other thing that altered the race is the Obama phone video.

The media won’t talk about that unless Obama loses. Then media butthurt will be all about how awful America is, so they will use that video as a racism tutorial or something.

Moesart on October 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Empty high chair is a classic…

It is so simple, it’s overlooked…people liked Obama, they didn’t necessarily like McCain, McCain was a known entity and many didn’t like his demeanor.

However, Obama has been a failure, a disappointment, and the people needed a reason to change their mind, and Mitt was just a bunch of speeches–a blur, as most politicians are.

However, on the national stage, he gave people a reason, an excuse to dump the person they were “dating”.

That’s all many were looking for, a “reason” to move on, so when they say “I am going not supporting Obama”, a nod and a response “Yeah, Mitt looked pretty strong” or “like a president” or “I could see his compassion”…

It is as simple as that, people needed an excuse to excuse themselves from the table…

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

On the theory that the jobs report ate into the Romney Bounce.

I don’t buy that, simply because of the timing. The jobs report was released Friday morning and most widely talked about at that same time. Friday incidentally, happened to be Romney’s strongest polling day last week. You’d think if the jobs number was going to have a measurable affect, it’d happen then, not two days later.

It’s more likely that we’re just seeing weekend noise, particularly given that other polls taken over the weekend Show Romney doing better than before the debate.

WolvenOne on October 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

It’s not a bounce. Romney fundamentaly changed the race as far as independent voters go. And it’s just going to get worse for Obama from here out.

eyedoc on October 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Don’t count on the fundraising “scandal” to even make the msm. It’s basically the same story as in 2008.

sandee on October 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Is there any poll that shows that Obama gained points after the debate?

How much free crap do you need to get to actually think that Obama was the better of the two choices on that stage?

JetBlast on October 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Go check Rasmussen and Gallup today. Rasmussen has race back to tied and Obama widened lead by two points from yesterday with Gallup.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

The metrics of winning and losing this race remain the same and hence the defeat for Obama… Obama has a much less enthusiastic base than in 2008 and there is a number of “White Voters” who voted for Obama in 2008 that are going to vote for Romney in 2012. So based on simple math if 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 stay home in 2012 combined with 10% of Obama “White Voters” from 2008 switching and voting for Romney in 2012 then Obama is going to lose the elections. The Math cannot be challenged here…

Look around you, no need for polling to tell you this, and you know that based on the numbers I showed you above Obama is going to lose the elections…

mnjg on October 8, 2012 at 1:49 PM

When a campaign depends on a guy like Joe Biden to bail themselves out, you know it’s in trouble…

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Even if Obama improves his delivery, he’s going to be hurting after the foreign policy debate on 10/22. It’s a hot mess on various fronts, and there’s really no way he can defend that.

I think Obama will gain most from the townhall debate (look for the 47% comment to make an appearance there by an audience member), but the VP and foreign policy debate are pretty much lost for the left.

I don’t think the VP debate will be a knockout like last week’s debate, either. Biden is a much smoother liar than Obama – we saw that in his debate with Palin, and the media ignored every single factually incorrect word he uttered (of which there were many).

tdpwells on October 8, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Once you know how a magic trick works, it’s no longer interesting.

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 1:50 PM

It’s not a bounce. Romney fundamentaly changed the race as far as independent voters go. And it’s just going to get worse for Obama from here out.

eyedoc on October 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Romney has been winning the independents in almost all polls even long before the debate… He who wins the independents by more than 4 points is certain to win the elections….

mnjg on October 8, 2012 at 1:50 PM

The bounce has not faded. It’s the new normal. It will continue a slow creep upwards until election day. As for Mark1971′s claim that Gallup and Ras have faded, gallup has not. Rather, Romney pulled even today. Ras always gets a Dem bump after the weekends. It will not sustain throughout the week.

The real sorry is not in the polls anyway but in the Narrative, the last great device of the media. Obama has completely lost control of it. When you’ve got the New Yorker putting chairs as stand-ins for The One, you know the Narrative has been lost. Utterly.

MaxMBJ on October 8, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Seems like the bounce may already be translating into early votes.

Love the baby high chair in the cartoon. What happened to the baby’s pacifier?

stukinIL4now on October 8, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Good lord . . . enough of this nonsense from those idiotic polls. Just to start with whom do think is at home in the afternoon when they make all those robocalls and how many people simply don’t answer the calls? What population parameter are these polls attempting to represent . . . I strongly suspect they are biased, invalid and pure mathematical garbage. They all should be required to display a disclaimer stating that they are: “For entertainment purposes only”.

rplat on October 8, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Look around you, no need for polling to tell you this, and you know that based on the numbers I showed you above Obama is going to lose the elections…

mnjg on October 8, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Exactly…it only takes a few % to reverse what Obama did to win, and the enthusiasm alone will do that.

Add to other factors, and it actually points to a blow out…and as stated above, all they needed was an excuse to dump Obama, and the debate gave them that excuse…

With not major gaffs, and I don’t expect any from Mitt, it’s clear sailing to the election…the question is “how big?”…and if Republicans can take the Senate from the dems.

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Secret video of Obama – immediately after the debate

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Is there any poll that shows that Obama gained points after the debate?

How much free crap do you need to get to actually think that Obama was the better of the two choices on that stage?

JetBlast on October 8, 2012 at 1:48 PM

According to 39% of Democrats asked by Gallup, O’bamna won that debate.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 1:53 PM

…Romney turned the corner…if he does as well in the second debate…he’ll start picking up speed on the stretch…a good showing in the 3rd debate…and JugEars can spend 2 billion dollars and pick his nose every speech for all I care.

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 1:54 PM

“We lost big because Romney lied” is a lousy strategy. First, if he lied Obama had ample opportunity to tear the lies apart, but failed to do so.
forest on October 8, 2012 at 1:40 PM

That “Romney lied” meme is trending very big on the liberal blogs. It appears to be the favored excuse du jour for Obama’s failure. I must have read 40 or 50 comments this morning from outraged lefties complaining about how Romney “lied” about Obama cutting Medicare.

The problem is, it is an undisputable fact that Obamacare cuts $716 Billion Dollars from Medicare. Democrats argue, absurdly, that these huge cuts won’t hurt Medicare beneficiaries (seniors) because the cuts are directed at Medicare providers (doctors and hospitals that treat Medicare patients), not beneficiaries. The Democrats’ argument is beyond ludicrous.

It’s like if the federal government were operating a program to provide seniors with their meals. The program rules say seniors get three meals a day, seven days a week. Private companies prepare and deliver the meals, and get reimbursed by the government about $100 per week for each senior they serve. The government announces that it is cutting the reimbursement rate from $100 to $45 a week, but tells seniors that the cuts won’t affect their benefits, because they’re still entitled to the same number of meals! That hamburger on a bun that granny used to get on Monday is now being replaced by a slice of Spam on a saltine, but granny is still getting her Monday dinner, so quit “lying” that her benefits are being reduced!

Under the new Medicare regime, granny’s doctor will no longer accept her Medicare (because the doctor can’t afford to treat Medicare patients anymore), but don’t worry granny — there’s a nice Pakistani refugee who’ll happily accept your Medicare. He can barely speak English, obtained his medical degree from a correspondence school in Guatemala, and has 900 other patients, but you’re still getting your Medicare benefits, so quit whining!

AZCoyote on October 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM

hahaha, Ramirez nailed it, beats Clint’s imagery with that little chair detail :-)…

jimver on October 8, 2012 at 1:57 PM

WHO at this point is going to decide that BHO doesn’t suck nearly as much as they thought a week or so ago?

Oink on October 8, 2012 at 1:57 PM

That “Romney lied” meme is trending very big on the liberal blogs. It appears to be the favored excuse du jour for Obama’s failure.

AZCoyote on October 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM

I hope they stick with it. To the bitter end.

faraway on October 8, 2012 at 1:58 PM

I dunno, that Joe Biden guy,……..
He could do some real damage…..

FlaMurph on October 8, 2012 at 1:58 PM

That hamburger on a bun that granny used to get on Monday is now being replaced by a slice of Spam on a saltine, but granny is still getting her Monday dinner, so quit “lying” that her benefits are being reduced!

AZCoyote on October 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM

I’m totally stealing that.

tdpwells on October 8, 2012 at 1:58 PM

I dunno, that Joe Biden guy,……..
He could do some real damage…..

To himself…

sandee on October 8, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35.

It wasn’t long ago that all the doomsayers were stating that Mitt’s only chance was to win the independents, that Obama owned them and that Mitt will never win that segment…woe is me, woe is me, Mitt has to win the independents, or it’s all over, just narrow it and he could win…

Now that he has complete and utter control of that segment…where are the brilliant prognosticators?

Shouldn’t they be on this site saying it’s a slam-dunk, that there is no way Obama can win without the indies??? Where are they?

Every Mitt hater carried that water, now the bucket is empty, will they come forward and admit defeat? Naw, never!!

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 2:01 PM

WHO at this point is going to decide that BHO doesn’t suck nearly as much as they thought a week or so ago?

Oink on October 8, 2012 at 1:57 PM

THIS! If you were going to vote for Obama simply because you bought into the lie that there was no other legitimate choice because Romney is so evil and then you watch the debates and find out that this Romney fellow seems alright and is not nearly as evil as everyone was saying; how in the world are you going to all of the sudden forget that and say “OMG unemployment is 0.2% points below 8%, Obama is awesome!”

I’m not talking about the morons that are all in for Obama here, I’m talking about the ones who just happened to feel that there wasn’t any other choice because of the crap the media feeds them.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 2:03 PM

“We lost big because Romney lied” is a lousy strategy. First, if he lied Obama had ample opportunity to tear the lies apart, but failed to do so.
forest on October 8, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Mitt said it…they can repeat it all they want, it doesn’t make it right…just like a 5 boys trying to convince a father…

The ultimate put down, with grace and style…

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Exactly…it only takes a few % to reverse what Obama did to win, and the enthusiasm alone will do that.

Add to other factors, and it actually points to a blow out…and as stated above, all they needed was an excuse to dump Obama, and the debate gave them that excuse…

With not major gaffs, and I don’t expect any from Mitt, it’s clear sailing to the election…the question is “how big?”…and if Republicans can take the Senate from the dems.

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 1:53 PM

If you wish you made download from the link below my elections prediction model for battleground states and national vote based on the percentage of Obama 2008 “White Voters” from 2008 switching and voting for Romney in 2012 and the “intensity factor” which is the percentage of Obama 2008 voters who would stay home in 2012. You can change the numbers in cell “B2″ and cell “B3″ of the Excel sheet for each State and see what would be the result…

http://www.fileconvoy.com/dfl.php?id=g82a6a2d951c460b8154771c80bbbad47ed8be7

mnjg on October 8, 2012 at 2:05 PM

I watched the debate live stream from Youtube, and live tweets were flashed on the screen. After the Big Bird comment, most of the tweets were comments about Big Bird and PBS. As the debate went on, the tweets became more serious, and by the end people were literally changing their minds on twitter before hearing any post-debate commentary.

I believe that Paul Ryan has the opportunity to close the deal this week in his debate with Biden.

lea on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

For months now, deranged conservatives on this blog have been telling us to pay no attention to the polls. Once Romney was able to temporary fool some Americans into thinking he isn’t an empty suit, naturally his numbers went up. Now the same deranged conservatives who for months have been telling us the polls are cooked are now telling us to accept them.

Only God knows what they will say when the polls turn back around after the VP debate and next presidential debate.

I have always been on record saying Obama is a horrible debater. I was on record saying i feel he will lose all 3 debates. Not anymore. I expect him to win the next two. My only concern is whether these deranged conservatives will tell us discount the polls when we get the inevitable Obama bounce next week.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

The bounce is already fading, killed by the phony jobs report.

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Maybe.

The Rasmussen Consumer Confidence numbers jumped 8% today to 93.2

sentinelrules on October 8, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Yes the Press has turned themselves into pretzels making this jobs report look real.

Fact is it is as phony as it gets. There is absolutely nothing that supports that 7.8% number and the revisions of the past two months.

But this proves the Press still has huge power. Hard to imagine the hell they would release on Romney were he to beat the first black affirmative action President.

Steveangell on October 8, 2012 at 2:07 PM

The problem is, it is an undisputable fact that Obamacare cuts $716 Billion Dollars from Medicare. Democrats argue, absurdly, that these huge cuts won’t hurt Medicare beneficiaries (seniors) because the cuts are directed at Medicare providers (doctors and hospitals that treat Medicare patients), not beneficiaries. The Democrats’ argument is beyond ludicrous.

AZCoyote on October 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM

What do the liberals think Medicare is? Payments to providers (doctors and hospitals) is exactly what Medicare does.

TarheelBen on October 8, 2012 at 2:11 PM

For months now, deranged conservatives on this blog have been telling us to pay no attention to the polls that are heavily weighted for Democrats.
HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

FIFY.

You’ll notice we’ve rarely taken issue with the Rasmussen polling, which is the most consistently fair in terms of D/R/I even when they show Obama ahead.

tdpwells on October 8, 2012 at 2:11 PM

WOW!!

Taniel‏@Taniel

.@markos says new PPP national poll he’ll release tomorrow has Romney ahead. This will be first non-Rasmussen lead for Romney since August.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/255367755317002241

sentinelrules on October 8, 2012 at 2:12 PM

What do the liberals think Medicare is? Payments to providers (doctors and hospitals) is exactly what Medicare does.

TarheelBen on October 8, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Indeed that is all they do. Every penny spent goes to the providers. There is no where else to cut.

This is a 100% lie by the Democrats. They cut Medicare in the only way possible.

Steveangell on October 8, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Romney will not maintain his lead unless we can stop the lefts new talking point, the ‘Romney Lied’ lie.

Does this not sound familiar. Since Romney destroyed Obama last week the lefts line has become ‘Romney Lied’. Not that Obama was right or Obama was good or that Obama’s programs worked but simply an empty minded slogan…’Romney Lied’

And the nature of ‘the lies’….well, they come in two forms but have the same source. The first form is the ‘fact check’ scam which is little more than giving left leaning or democrat ‘fact checkers’ authority to define and declare partisan disagreements ‘lies’. The second is the lefts age old practice of defining truth and fact as anything that comes from the lefts media or candidate and anything not from their media as a ‘lie’…

The familiar bit is this…Remember ‘Bush Lied’ in its many manifestations. Remember how the left ran and ran and ran with the meme. How they repeated the idea over and over until their media no longer needed to. And remember how they defined the ‘lie’…exactly as I noted above. Anything was a lie that did not come from the DNC laundered through the lefts media and talking head…and after a few years the lie about ‘lies’ stuck.

The question is…does the lefts ‘lie’ machine have enough time to make their lie stick about ‘lies’…I figure it is too late as Romney can now go directly to the public and can produce his own adds calling the liars screaming ‘lies’ what they are…partisan hacks.

There is only one way to defeat the lefts ‘Romney Lied’ lie. That is to immediately have the fellow on the receiving end of the lie to immediately poke his finger in the face of the lefts operative and loudly say “No sir, YOU are lying in spouting that partisan political talking point. Have you no shame?”…

Let their hacks defend themselves a bit.

JIMV on October 8, 2012 at 2:15 PM

I think that Ryan should be careful not to appear as though he’s being ‘too harsh’ on Biden. The media would leap at the chance to say that Ryan was ‘beating up unnecessarily’ on ‘poor ol’ uncle Joe’.

Ryan should be confident, take command, use the truth to his advantage as Romney did, but should be careful not to get sucked in to any personal attacks, just as Romney did, and I’m fairly confident that will be the tact Ryan takes in the debate. He will have no problem winning it.

As to the debate on Oct. 16 with Romney and Obama, it is going to be on domestic and foreign policy, and it’s going to be conducted in a ‘townhall style’ with the questions to the candidates being posed by ‘undecided voters’ selected by Gallup.

This debate will be the messiest, offers the greatest chance of all three debates for random elements, and for gaffes by both candidates. Expect Obama to be interrupting a great deal, going over his allotted time, and talking over the moderator, the people posing the questions, and Romney, too. He’s desperate and he’ll try to bull his way through.

Romney can afford to do less well in this debate than he did in the first. The first established him with the electorate, and introduction and he also wiped the floor with Obama and seized control of the momentum.

Secondly, this ‘townhall style’ automatically makes this debate appear less serious and important the the formal debate setting. Less weight will be given this debate in the minds of the voters simply for that reason.

All Romney needs to do is turn in a comparable performance to Obama’s in this second debate and he’ll still be ahead. If he wins it going away, of course, that would be optimal. Still, its not as important as the first.

The third, and final, debate is Oct. 22 and will focus on foreign policy. This debate is important. This is where Romney will make his case to the American people regarding his foreign policy stance. Obama will be defending his last four years, and all of the failures that go along with them. Romney will outline his plans for the next four years, Obama will be pleading to keep doing what he’s already been doing “Let us finish what we started.”

I believe that Romney will do admirably well in this final debate, and that is the image that he will leave impressed on the electorate going into the election two weeks later.

thatsafactjack on October 8, 2012 at 2:16 PM

A further thing to remember…’Bush Lied’ worked for the left because the leadership on the right fled the field of political battle leaving Bush out to dry.

JIMV on October 8, 2012 at 2:17 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Pal, we still think the polls are off…even with Mitt winning it’s obvious they are oversampling dems, so the difference should even be greater…we are just happy that he has been so effective that even the pollsters can’t skew the numbers any more..

But it doesn’t mean they are accurate, they are still weighted wrong…you don’t have a very good ability to analyse, do you?

How is this, all you guys said Mitt can’t win without the indies, they are vital and that segment is owned by Obama…well now Mitt is leading indies by 16%, remarkable, 16%, I think that pretty much puts your Obama out off the the porch, and walking down the road.

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 2:18 PM

My buddies and I routinely conduct a “Lawn Sign Poll” during the major elections.(obviously not scientific)

We live in Michigan. Four years ago the Obama Lawn Signs were everywhere. Enthusiasm was high for Democrats.

This year the Romney Lawn signs outnumber the Obama ones by 3-1. We live in Michigan, in an around Detroit (and we drive into Detroit for work).

I wish they did more polling here in Michigan, but I Just don’t see a +10 lead for Obama here.

Gadsden

GadsdenRattlers on October 8, 2012 at 2:19 PM

My buddies and I routinely conduct a “Lawn Sign Poll” during the major elections.(obviously not scientific)

We live in Michigan. Four years ago the Obama Lawn Signs were everywhere. Enthusiasm was high for Democrats.

This year the Romney Lawn signs outnumber the Obama ones by 3-1. We live in Michigan, in an around Detroit (and we drive into Detroit for work).

I wish they did more polling here in Michigan, but I Just don’t see a +10 lead for Obama here.

Gadsden

GadsdenRattlers on October 8, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I live in Missouri and over the last 2 weeks Todd Akin signs have been popping up all over the place and I live in almost a 50/50 split white/black neighborhood in North Saint Louis County. The only Claire signs (Claire McCaskill) I’ve seen are posted outside the union district headquarters around here.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 2:24 PM

I live in Missouri and over the last 2 weeks Todd Akin signs have been popping up all over the place and I live in almost a 50/50 split white/black neighborhood in North Saint Louis County. The only Claire signs (Claire McCaskill) I’ve seen are posted outside the union district headquarters around here.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Akin is going to win the Senate race in Missouri…

mnjg on October 8, 2012 at 2:25 PM

For months now, deranged conservatives on this blog have been telling us to pay no attention to the polls. …
Only God knows what they will say when the polls turn back around after the VP debate and next presidential debate.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Yeah, I know this is a fool’s errand trying to educate one of the trolls with facts and truth, but we’ll give it a try.

We’ve been saying that the polls are generally not credible during the early parts of the campaign season because the polls have a documented record of being used to shape opinion rather than measure it. Since most polling organizations are part of the MSM and the DNC (but I repeat myself), they heavily favor the democrat with either push-poll questions or simply heavily overweighting the democrat sample. It is only during the several weeks before the election that the “polls tighten up” and start actually measuring opinion. That is because the polling organizations have to maintain some shred of credibility in order to be able to influence the next election cycle. In this case, they are have a tough time shaping opinion to the point of having to show Romney slightly ahead despite using a D+8 sample (when 2008 was only D+7 and there is no way democrats are that enthusiastic this time).

I don’t see anyone here taking these polls as gospel, we are still asking for the internals because that is the only way to assess the credibility of those polls.

AZfederalist on October 8, 2012 at 2:28 PM

right2bright on October 8, 2012 at 2:18 PM

They ADMIT they are over sampling dems, every time they claim the 2008 turn out model instead of 2010. I laughed when I saw the poll with a D sample of 50%. A true act of desperation.

Look, every real vote since 2008 has been an embarrassing defeat for the dems.

dogsoldier on October 8, 2012 at 2:29 PM

The question is…does the lefts ‘lie’ machine have enough time to make their lie stick about ‘lies’…I figure it is too late as Romney can now go directly to the public and can produce his own adds calling the liars screaming ‘lies’ what they are…partisan hacks.

There is only one way to defeat the lefts ‘Romney Lied’ lie. That is to immediately have the fellow on the receiving end of the lie to immediately poke his finger in the face of the lefts operative and loudly say “No sir, YOU are lying in spouting that partisan political talking point. Have you no shame?”…

Let their hacks defend themselves a bit.

JIMV on October 8, 2012 at 2:15 PM

So far Romney has shown no inclination to call the Press LIARS.

It is the Press selling these lies. It is the Press insisting the Jobs Report lie is reality. The Press repeating the Obama lies about Romney lying and Obama not doing so. In reality they both lie all the time. The Press just covers for Obama lies and points out Romney lies.

The press is covering Obama on his 5 Trillion tax cut by Romney lie for example. But they are pointing out Romney has different positions on different days on keeping 26 year olds on insurance and no preexisting conditions. I call that a real Romney lie.

Steveangell on October 8, 2012 at 2:30 PM

My only concern is whether these deranged conservatives will tell us discount the polls when we get the inevitable Obama bounce next week.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

…sing DAISY HotLips !…sing!…we don’t need any deranged humming !…S I N G
(substituting for jackie since she hates missing DAISY)

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 2:32 PM

For months now, deranged conservatives on this blog have been telling us to pay no attention to the polls. Once Romney was able to temporary fool some Americans into thinking he isn’t an empty suit, naturally his numbers went up.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Translation: “Like every other Democrat here, the only way I can spin O’bamna’s horrible debate performance is to claim that Romney was lying thru his teeth throughout that entire debate.”

Since that debate, I’ve been asking our Leftists friends here to please document what Romney’s “lies” were in that debate, and none of them have been able to answer.

Likewise, in many of the Comments at places like the NY Times and the Washington Post, the Democrat High School Dropouts posting there are also claiming Romney was lying like a rug. But none of them could offer evidence of the lies they claim took place.

Care to give it a go, Champ? Give us specific examples of Romney’s debate “lies”.

As for the “polls”, you can’t deny that most of them are done by O’bamna Campaign Donors. Care to tell us why we should believe “polls” done by newspapers that endorsed O’bamna in 2008 and will do so again this year?

(Starts Stopwatch)

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 2:32 PM

It’s like if the federal government were operating a program to provide seniors with their meals. The program rules say seniors get three meals a day, seven days a week. Private companies prepare and deliver the meals, and get reimbursed by the government about $100 per week for each senior they serve. The government announces that it is cutting the reimbursement rate from $100 to $45 a week, but tells seniors that the cuts won’t affect their benefits, because they’re still entitled to the same number of meals! That hamburger on a bun that granny used to get on Monday is now being replaced by a slice of Spam on a saltine, but granny is still getting her Monday dinner, so quit “lying” that her benefits are being reduced!

AZCoyote on October 8, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Put this in an ad and sell it 6 days a week and twice on Sunday. Dollars to donuts seniors would love it.

adurb44 on October 8, 2012 at 2:32 PM

There was only one alpha male at the debate; clearly it wasn’t Obama.

Tater Salad on October 8, 2012 at 2:36 PM

So far Romney has shown no inclination to call the Press LIARS.

It is the Press selling these lies. It is the Press insisting the Jobs Report lie is reality. The Press repeating the Obama lies about Romney lying and Obama not doing so. In reality they both lie all the time. The Press just covers for Obama lies and points out Romney lies.

The press is covering Obama on his 5 Trillion tax cut by Romney lie for example. But they are pointing out Romney has different positions on different days on keeping 26 year olds on insurance and no preexisting conditions. I call that a real Romney lie.

Steveangell on October 8, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Romney shouldn’t…His allies and other Conservatives. They ae the folk on the talking head shows and they are the ones who need to make it very clear that this time the ‘lies’ lie will not go unanswered.

JIMV on October 8, 2012 at 2:40 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

…you’re a broken record and so full of sh!t that YOU are the ONLY shovel ready job that JugEars has produced!

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 2:40 PM

I live in Missouri and over the last 2 weeks Todd Akin signs have been popping up all over the place and I live in almost a 50/50 split white/black neighborhood in North Saint Louis County. The only Claire signs (Claire McCaskill) I’ve seen are posted outside the union district headquarters around here.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Akin is going to win the Senate race in Missouri…

mnjg on October 8, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Oh I know, but I thought I would share this little anecdote because people are still freaking out about this race. The Democrat party is so hated from top to bottom in this state at the moment that people need to stop freaking out and start supporting Akin since the squishes in the GOP have disowned him.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 8, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Romney shouldn’t…His allies and other Conservatives. They ae the folk on the talking head shows and they are the ones who need to make it very clear that this time the ‘lies’ lie will not go unanswered.

JIMV on October 8, 2012 at 2:40 PM

No one listens to those shows.

They do watch the debates.

Either Romney calls out the Moderator or Ryan calls out his Moderator who was married to an Obama Secretary. Or no one will know the Press was ever called out.

The format on this debate did not give Jim much room to shill for Obama but that will not be the case in the remaining debates.

Steveangell on October 8, 2012 at 2:46 PM

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