Can Romney sustain the post-debate “bounce?”

posted at 1:21 pm on October 8, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

It’s a good question, for a couple of reasons.  First, I think we can establish that Mitt Romney has gotten a bounce from his overwhelming debate win on Wednesday, and that it’s not just an outlier result any longer. But the question still exists as to whether this is a “bounce,” as The Week assumes, which will have a parabola impact, or a pivot point in public opinion that will change the race and momentum.  In their roundup, The Week quotes three commentators with different perspectives on the matter (including our friend Andrew Malcolm), but let’s let TW simply frame the question here:

A flurry of new polls indicate that Mitt Romney got a lift from hisstrong debate performance last week, pulling roughly even with President Obama nationwide. Romney also appears to have chipped away at or eliminated Obama’s lead in several critical swing states, including Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. Gallup’s latest seven-day tracking poll, for example, showed Obama leading Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among registered voters in the three days leading up to last week’s televised clash; afterward, they were deadlocked at 47 percent apiece. Will Romney’s post-debate bounce be fleeting, or has it fundamentally altered the race?

I’m inclined to think it has fundamentally altered the race, for a few reasons — some of which I predicted in my pre-debate analysis.  Romney had his first opportunity to stand on the same stage as Obama as an equal and talk over the heads of the media directly to voters.  That would have helped him even if Obama had done better in the debate, by both humanizing Romney while elevating his stature. With Romney clearly and decisively out-debating Obama, it has elevated him perhaps past Obama in stature, a very bad outcome for an incumbent — and a bell that is almost impossible to unring.  That’s why I considered the first debate the most important of the three.

Second, the biggest reason (although hardly the only one) that Obama failed so badly was that he has still not articulated any kind of a vision for his second term.  Instead, he spent the debate offering a vague stay-the-course argument while attacking Romney’s proposals, which is still to this day the only agenda on the table for the next four years.  In order to fix that problem, Obama has to launch a clear vision of how he will change the current economic trajectory in the next four years other than a promise to raise Mitt Romney’s taxes.  Instead, he’s still griping about Romney while refusing to explain why he wants another term at all — which lost Friday Night Lights creator and life-long Democrat Buzz Bissinger at The Daily Beast:

At the debate, Romney did not simply act like he wanted to be president. He wants to be president. He showed vigor, and enthusiasm, and excitement, a man who wants to lead. It may all be ephemeral, because most of politics is ephemeral, a cynical means to the end of getting elected. But he also revealed compassion that, during the entirety of this absurdly long march, had never been in evidence before. He recognized the needs of the poor. He recognized the need for regulation.

His tax plan was admittedly mystery meat. But the tag he has lied is unfair. To the contrary, he has recognized that his original proposal is more screwed up than the infield fly rule, not to mention mathematically impossible. So he is modifying it, coming up with a possible alternative in recent weeks that deductions should be capped at $17,000. Even the liberal party boys, like The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein, reluctantly admitted in the typical liberal style that it might have merit one of these millennia. I think Romney realizes that lowering the marginal rate to 20 percent will not fly if he is to lower the deficit and make the plan work. And he is hardly the only candidate to assert something during a campaign that will change once in his office. As I recall, Obama vowed to cut the deficit in half.

Democratic supporters offered the usual antidotes to Obama’s debate performance: he was tired from running the country, the mile-high air got to him (which is why Al Gore is better off with the midlife crisis of a beard). But I don’t see Obama spending much time running the country, unless you count his recent appearance on The View, where he was far more animated and charming than during the debate. …

Four years ago, all Obama had to do was speak and everyone swooned. That was four years ago. It is now four years later. He is no longer the chosen one. He is just too cool for school in a country desperate for the infectiousness of rejuvenation.

Romney has it.

Our president no longer does.

Amelia Chasse of Hynes Communications pointed out on Fox and Friends this morning that the reaction over the last few days suggests that Obama and his campaign still haven’t figured this out:

People don’t respect those who offer excuses for bad performance, and Romney made me fail by confusing me isn’t exactly a confidence-building measure for voters choosing the next Leader Of The Free World.  Is Obama similarly nonplussed by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s declarations?

Combine this with the month-long-and-still-continuing debacle of the Obama administration’s handling of the Benghazi terror attack, and the impression from the debate and its aftermath is that Obama is in way over his head — which is what people concluded about Obama’s economic stewardship a couple of years ago, too.  Not only is Obama flailing and drifting, but he seems unaware of the fact that he is flailing and drifting.  Unless Obama begins communicating a clear agenda for a second term with a solid explanation of how that will improve over his D- first term, Romney looks like the only adult in the room.  And that may turn this from a bounce to a game-changer.

Michael Ramirez puts this succinctly and eloquently, as he always does, in Friday’s editorial cartoon for Investors Business Daily:

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The Facebookers aren’t showing their faces on this one.

logis on October 8, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Here is a piece about the Obama 5 Trillion tax cut lie.

But unless Ryan brings this up in the debate Americans will never know about it.

Steveangell on October 8, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Care to give it a go, Champ? Give us specific examples of Romney’s debate “lies”.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 2:32 PM

The operative word in my post was deranged and conservative. I can tell you that he lied about having a preexisting component in his ” health care” plan. I can tell you that he lied he would love to hire teachers after mocking Obama for wanting to hire more teachers and firefighters. I can tell you he lied about not promising a 20% across the board tax cut. As a matter of fact, i can even tell you he lied about Obama giving away $90 billion to green energy companies. All this doesn’t mean a thing to you because you could careless. If a video came out of him burning the US flag you will still find an excuse for why he is the best thing since slice bread. You dont care about the truth. You only care about not seeing the Kenyan socialist in the White House.

The only good news for you is that Obama will stop being president Jan 2017.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:03 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Must suck knowing your boy is going down! The smell of desperation is permeating from the liberal zombies.

I signed up to take the bus from Sacramento to campaign for Romney in Reno next weekend. U mad?

1984 in real life on October 8, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Care to give it a go, Champ? Give us specific examples of Romney’s debate “lies”.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 2:32 PM

The operative word in my post was deranged

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:03 PM

You certainly are that.

As for your debate lie claims, can you back them up with credible cites from multiple sources?

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 3:08 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:03 PM

PS, I notice that you ran away from my final question re. “polling” done by O’bamna Donors and Endorsers.

Care to spin those?

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 3:10 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Please cite your sources of proof for these “lies” you posted.

We’ll wait.

kingsjester on October 8, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Mark1971 on October 8, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Your absolutely right. MITT has no chance . Please stop coming here
and rubbing our nose in it.

Obama has destroyed Mitt and he is hopeless.

woe is us

gerrym51 on October 8, 2012 at 3:12 PM

I can tell you that he lied he would love to hire teachers after mocking Obama for wanting to hire more teachers and firefighters. I can tell you he lied about not promising a 20% across the board tax cut. As a matter of fact, i can even tell you he lied about Obama giving away $90 billion to green energy companies.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Would have been nice if your president could have thought of something to say about all these “lies” in the debate, huh? I mean, golly, isn’t that the PURPOSE of a debate? To refute your opponents’ arguments? LOL

Oh, and BY THE WAY, Romney is still promising a 20% across the board tax cut, and he has ALWAYS said he would streamline the tax code to remove and phase out deductions.

I realize tax policy is complicated for the liberal brain, but please don’t engage in revisionist history just because you haven’t followed Mitt Romney’s proposals on the campaign trail the last 18 months.

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 3:20 PM

D- is grade inflation since I wnt to school.

burt on October 8, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Would have been nice if your president could have thought of something to say about all these “lies” in the debate, huh? I mean, golly, isn’t that the PURPOSE of a debate? To refute your opponents’ arguments? LOL

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Pay attention! That is why he LOST the debate.

Oh, and BY THE WAY, Romney is still promising a 20% across the board tax cut, and he has ALWAYS said he would streamline the tax code to remove and phase out deductions.

You aren’t that bright are you? You just agreed Romney lied when he said he doesn’t have any plans of lowering taxes for the rich.

I realize tax policy is complicated for the liberal uneducated conservative brain, but please don’t engage in revisionist history just because you haven’t followed Mitt Romney’s proposals on the campaign trail the last 18 months

FIFY

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:32 PM

HotAirLib ~ Lying troll. Romney has made clear than any tax reform MUST leave the upper income SHARE of the tax burden the same and NOT increase taxes for the middle class. As to which specific deductions go and which stay, he’s said everything is on the table and Democrats are welcome to the table.

Obama, OTOH, will raise taxes on everyone, continue to smite small business and kill energy production until America is strangled. Great plan for a second term, dufus!

Adjoran on October 8, 2012 at 3:46 PM

5 possible out comes for debate.

1. Obama wins by a lot election over.
2. Obama wins by a little -election is over.
3. debate a tie election is over.
4. Mitt wins by a little-election is probably over.

5. MITT WINS BY A GAZILLION AND KICKS OBAMA ALL OVER THE PLACE MAKING HIM WHIMPER.

WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE.ELECTION IS STILL ON AND TIGHTER.

gerrym51 on October 8, 2012 at 3:47 PM

HotAirLib believes Jugears won the last debate.

HotAirLib believes he’s going to convince some conservative folk here at HotAir of this “fact”.

HotAirLib believes we are deranged.

Brilliant! Smart guy that HotAirLib!

UpTheCreek on October 8, 2012 at 3:47 PM

HotAirLib was challenged to back up his claims about Romney lying…hmmm how long ago was that???

Who is the real liar.

CW on October 8, 2012 at 3:47 PM

The operative word in my post was deranged

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:03 PM

The operative words in your life are deranged, moronic and loser.

bayview on October 8, 2012 at 3:53 PM

You should listen to the twits on 1210 talk radio in Philly. Yea the station that dropped rush and hannity. Every caller saying Obama is going to win big the debate didn’t change anything. Of course the callers are from jersey and Philly, which are not important areas

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 3:54 PM

The operative word in my post was deranged

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:03 PM

The operative words in your life are deranged, moronic and loser.

bayview on October 8, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Your Mom just added infantile and parasitic to your description.

bayview on October 8, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Not only is Obama flailing and drifting, but he seems unaware of the fact that he is flailing and drifting. Unless Obama begins communicating a clear agenda for a second term with a solid explanation of how that will improve over his D- first term, Romney looks like the only adult in the room. And that may turn this from a bounce to a game-changer.

.
Ed, you are a good person and a thoughtful writer who fequently strives too hard to be fair. Unlike a Democrat, I will illustrate my point. Re-read this one sentence:

Not only is Obama flailing and drifting, but he seems unaware of the fact that he is flailing and drifting.

Your first statement establishes an observed fact. Obama has NO record to run on – nada, zip, zilch.

Nonetheless, your second statement in the sentence bends over backwards to undercut the fact you just established. Obama IS flailing and drifting – it was part of “The Emperor has no clothes” moment that pulled the veil from the eyes of so many viewers.

Remove the unneeded wavering from your own writing and you answer your own question. Last Wednesday night, this year’s race changed PERMANENTLY because people do trust their eyes over the LIES the media tries to tell them.

The best article I have read to date on the debate is the one linked below by Jon Podhertz:

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/2012/10/08/was-obama-really-that-bad-in-the-debate/

The president didn’t lose the debate on Wednesday because he performed badly on Wednesday. He didn’t perform well, to be sure, but others have done much worse with less fallout.

He lost the debate because he’s been a bad president.

PolAgnostic on October 8, 2012 at 3:56 PM

http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/10/no-wonder-obama-supporters-upset-at-jim-lehrer/

davidk on October 8, 2012 at 3:54 PM

.
Thank you for the link to that article. I just posted it on FaceBook to give my liberal friends something to chew on.

PolAgnostic on October 8, 2012 at 4:03 PM

President Obama is now up by 5 points in today’s Gallup , plus a decent approval rating needed to win) so where Hot Air is the banner headline about this ? also as of Friday Hannity’s and the GOP’s good friend pollster Frank Luntz said President Obama is still the likely winner

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 4:04 PM

It won’t be just a bounce. The debate was a game changer. For the first time since Reagan, a conservative candidate has successfully articulated to the whole country that the only way to prosperity is to “grow the pie” for everyone.

Like Rush said as long as conservatives articulate the conservative truths and ideas, they can never be defeated by liberalism which is devoid of ideas.

tkyang99 on October 8, 2012 at 4:05 PM

You aren’t that bright are you? You just agreed Romney lied when he said he doesn’t have any plans of lowering taxes for the rich.

I realize tax policy is complicated for the liberal uneducated conservative brain, but please don’t engage in revisionist history just because you haven’t followed Mitt Romney’s proposals on the campaign trail the last 18 months

FIFY

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Mitt Romney did not say he wouldn’t lower taxes. He said the SHARE of money paid by the wealthy overall would remain the same. Are you really that dense? I realize that libs don’t understand the Laffer curve, or economics, or business … but you’re proving to be especially dim-witted. If your income goes UP, but your tax rate goes down, what happens to your tax payment, you idiot? Hint, they stay the SAME or in some cases go UP! That is what Romney is saying. The rich will pay the same SHARE of the tax revenue based on a) economic growth b)closed loopholes and deductions.

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 4:08 PM

President Obama is now up by 5 points in today’s Gallup , plus a decent approval rating needed to win) so where Hot Air is the banner headline about this ? also as of Friday Hannity’s and the GOP’s good friend pollster Frank Luntz said President Obama is still the likely winner

WE ARE A CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN WEBSITE. WE WOULD ONLY PUT UP A BANNER IF GALLUP ALSO SAID ON THEIR WEBSITE TODAY THAT THE LAST 3 DAYS OF POLLING AFTER THE DEBATE HAS BROUGHT ROMNEY INTO A TIE.

OH WAIT IT DID SAY THAT. YOU SHOULD READ MORE CAREFULLY.

gerrym51 on October 8, 2012 at 4:14 PM

President Obama is now up by 5 points in today’s Gallup , plus a decent approval rating needed to win) so where Hot Air is the banner headline about this ? also as of Friday Hannity’s and the GOP’s good friend pollster Frank Luntz said President Obama is still the likely winner

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 4:04 PM

lolololololol :):):)

You must think the folks here are capable of thinking outside of their loony echo chamber. It will be fun watching their little hearts get crushed on election day.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 4:14 PM

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Go check out Huffington Post and Daily Kos. They wil;l have an editorial stance more to your liking. I’m positive you’ll be happier there.

kingsjester on October 8, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Pew poll today. Romney +4

rubberneck on October 8, 2012 at 4:15 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:32 PM

It would help if you and your math flunkie lib friends could possibly understand the difference between EFFECTIVE TAX RATES and MARGINAL RATES.

I’ve seen all your flunkie pals in the media conflating Mitt Romney’s effective tax rate of 14% with the higher MARGINAL rate paid by lower income Americans.

Guess what? Nobody pays the marginal rate. That’s before deductions and credits! So Romney pays a higher EFFECTIVE rate than 99% of Americans.

What Romney’s plan actually does is lower the MARGINAL rates for everyone, but keep the effective rate basically the same for wealthy.

Lowering marginal rates, as well as reducing the capital gains rate, spurs job growth and investment.

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 4:18 PM

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 4:04 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Let me try to understand: You register at a Conservative website, thinking that you’re smarter that we are. You wind up getting smacked around like General Custer at said website, and yet, you stay at website, compalining that it is a CONSERVATIVE WEBSITE, and, yet, still you proclaim your superior intellect.

Are you just plain dense, or do you crave attention that badly?

kingsjester on October 8, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Romney’s Strong Debate Performance Erases Obama’s Lead

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/08/romneys-strong-debate-performance-erases-obamas-lead/

Did pew take a truth pill or something?

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Guess what? Nobody pays the marginal rate. That’s before deductions and credits! So Romney pays a higher EFFECTIVE rate than 99% of Americans

Lowering marginal rates, as well as reducing the capital gains rate, spurs job growth and investment.

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 4:18 PM

lolololol. I guess it’s that adams apple. Must be messing with your brain.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 4:23 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 4:23 PM

lololololololol. You’re a phucking moron. lololololololol.

HumpBot Salvation on October 8, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Let me try to understand: You register at a Conservative website, thinking that you’re smarter that we are. You wind up getting smacked around like General Custer at said website, and yet, you stay at website, compalining that it is a CONSERVATIVE WEBSITE, and, yet, still you proclaim your superior intellect.

Are you just plain dense, or do you crave attention that badly?

kingsjester on October 8, 2012 at 4:20 PM

No one begrudges a website for promoting conservative causes. Liberal and conservative ideas are what we need to grow America.

What most Americans begrudge is conservatives who are willing to disavow their beliefs simply because they hate a president who isn’t as conservative as they are. They hate conservatives who will lie and lie to them for political gain.

Speaking of getting smacked, what happened to that Romney bounce everyone was talking about? The guy can’t get a break for nothing.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 4:32 PM

PPP Also showing Romney up Nationally Today.

WolvenOne on October 8, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Pew: Romney up 4 over Obama.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 4:32 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 4:32 PM

You mean the new Pew that has Romney up 4? Or the PPP national one showing him topping Obama as well?

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 4:33 PM

KIngsjester ,you are plainly a liar , I have never complained that this is a conservative website , TPM actually had the Pew sample up as a headline … I just question when there is not intellectual honesty , as for being smacked around as you put it ,that is just more of your childish ranting , I’m sorry it doesn’t matter if a million people disagreed with me ,they are just words and they don’t hurt in the least ,as for being smarter than the average hot air reader ,that I can’t say but I am definitely smarter than you

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 4:34 PM

As a result, more Republicans are making it through the likely-voter screen, giving the GOP a 5-point advantage on party identification, a significant change from last month, when Democrats held a 10-point advantage. Republicans now make up 36 percent of likely voters, up from 29 percent last month. Democratic identification among likely voters declined from 39 percent last month, to 31 percent now.

From the Pew Poll. I guess those earlier polls were skewed after all.

DrStock on October 8, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Hotair you mean the Romney bump of winning independents by 24 points, you know because we don’t care about getting liberal votes, Romney has his base, so,e dems and all the indies. So keep smoking your choom and go talk to your uncle pookie

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 4:39 PM

U2denver on October 8, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Sure your real first name isn’t bob?

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Wow the trolls dropping the liar mem

Conservative4ev on October 8, 2012 at 4:42 PM

No one begrudges a website for promoting conservative causes. Liberal and conservative ideas are what we need to grow America.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Are you serious?
What “Liberal” ideas “grow” America ? Maybe we differ on the definition of grow.

The past 50 years of Great Society liberalism has only grown debt, entitlement, and a dependency on government. Collectivism does not “grow” anything- It spreads and redistributes- for the sake of justice- but it does not grow- it usurps.

FlaMurph on October 8, 2012 at 4:46 PM

lolololol. I guess it’s that adams apple. Must be messing with your brain.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Prove me wrong. Tax revenues under George W. Bush went UP after his tax cuts. Same thing happened with Reagan. He had 9% economic growth during his recovery.

What do we get with Obama? Miserably low economic growth and plans to raise taxes (which will kill even that).

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 4:47 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 4:32 PM

How can it be most Americans, when Libs only make up 21% of the population?

Hold on, before you answer. Let me get the popcorn. This should be good.

Okay. You may fire when ready, Grizzly.

kingsjester on October 8, 2012 at 4:48 PM

I see HAL fled. Wimp.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 4:48 PM

For months now, deranged conservatives on this blog have been telling us to pay no attention to the polls. …
Only God knows what they will say when the polls turn back around after the VP debate and next presidential debate.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Conservatives are not the deranged ones. Go to Twitchy, they have a whole segment about you deranged liberals peeing on Romney yard signs. Why do you people all think your emotions are best expressed with your bodily fluids? Really creepy.

Night Owl on October 8, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Sure your real first name isn’t bob?

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Hey, lay off Gilligan. Even he still has more functioning braincells than U2denver.

HumpBot Salvation on October 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Hardest hit: The paroled, convicted felon, avowed pederast and president of the SF NAMBLA chapter, BendMeOverAndPokeMe who is sobbing something about “the 7.8% atom bomb” while receiving solace in the arms of his Guatemalan pool-boy lover.

The War Planner on October 8, 2012 at 4:52 PM

The real issue is that the MSM is starting to question Team Obama’s BS. Once they can’t just say anything without being questioned, they are in trouble.

The MSM is about to eat it’s own.

Tater Salad on October 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Sure your real first name isn’t bob?

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:41 PM

Hey, lay off Gilligan. Even he still has more functioning braincells than U2denver.

HumpBot Salvation on October 8, 2012 at 4:51 PM

Actually I had this earlier Denver character in mind!

BTW, dig the remark at about 0:40 into the clip, where it’s divulged that poor Denver got a “Minus 2″ on his history exam! I may have to start using that grading curve here.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012

…you…wet…the…bed…don’t…you?

KOOLAID2 on October 8, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Well Obama has gained two points on Romney in Rasmussen and Gallup since Sunday, and the only swing state polls showing Romney ahead were conducted the day after the debate and in VA and FL, which aren’t Obama’s firewall. Even in Rasmussen in Ohio the day after the disastrous debate Obama was still ahead. So no. The bounce isn’t sustainable, but what seems to be sustainable is the level of insanity on this board ever since Romney’s debate performance. People around here have gotten completely unhinged! Is this what happens when you are forced to support this kind of mendacity?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPgfzknYd20

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

libfreeordie on October 8, 2012 at 4:57 PM

If it’s no big deal, why are you Trolls attacking this thread like ants on a picnic table?

kingsjester on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Well Obama has gained two points on Romney in Rasmussen and Gallup since Sunday, and the only swing state polls showing Romney ahead were conducted the day after the debate and in VA and FL, which aren’t Obama’s firewall.

Obama’s Firewall has been burned to the effing ground….

..the only thing left among the smoldering ruins are a few
Navaho huts in New Mexico….good luck.

ToddPA on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Pew: Romney up 4 over Obama.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Yea! The same Pew poll that failed to take into account polling for Sat and Sunday after folks were able to digest the new UE report.

Unlike the poll conspiracy theorists here, i am willing to give you the 4 point Romney lead that isnt factoring the jobs report. I am even willing to give you the gallup tie that also didnt factor the jobs report. I will give you these polls if you promise to stop whining when the numbers correct next week.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Romney/Ryan and their effective surrogates (Sununu, Newt, Rubio, Christie etc) should hit the radio, TV and newspaper circuits everyday to keep the offense and pressure up.

bayview on October 8, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Okay, new theory on why Rasmussen is showing a less robust bounce than other pollsters. Rasmussen determines turnout based on a rolling average of enthusiasm, over a two week period. This is why current polling is D+4, before the debate conservatives were getting depressed by the state of the race.

It’s also possible that formally independent voters are now self identifying as Republican. Romney leads independents in both the PEW and PPP polls, but not by nearly as much as he did in say, yesterdays Rasmussen poll, or todays Politico poll.

If this is correct, than in the following days Rasmussen is likely to start correcting the turnout model, as and may eventually start showing results more like the Pew and PPP numbers.

Also, of course, Sundays are always a bad day for Romney on Rasmussen polls. I don’t know if its the traditional weekend noise, or something about the methodology, but Romneys numbers always seem to descend over the weekend, before improving by mid-week.

WolvenOne on October 8, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Fart Lib … Give it UP. The jobs report was BUNK, and most people know it. You explain to me how Obummer created 800,000 new jobs in the month of September with a GDP growing at 1.4% It would require 9% GDP growth to get that kind of figure. Even George Bush’s 4% growth after the recession he inherited from Clinton, only produced months of 300-500K job growth (which the lis bemoaned at the time).

The job growth household report was a statistical anomaly.

But what 70 million people saw on Wednesday night was a president that shouldn’t be entrusted with the keys to the men’s room, let alone the world’s largest economy.

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Waaa waaa baby upset! You can give nothing, turd.

wargamer6 on October 8, 2012 at 5:06 PM

I can’t wait for Thursday night! Paul Ryan is going to have a field day by first swatting away the absurdities of BiteMe and then reiterating the Romney agenda. He is such a measured, well spoken, credible and forceful voice that he will reduce BiteMe to tears by the 1/2 hour mark.

America will have a great demonstration, once and for all, of the ranting, ridiculous mad man that Obama chose as his Veep to contrast with the bright, uplifting and commanding presence of Romney’s running mate. Thursday is going to be a blast and Ryan will more than sustain, he will accelerate, the burst of Mitt-mentum from Romney’s brilliant performance last week.

MJBrutus on October 8, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Mitt Romney did not say he wouldn’t lower taxes. He said the SHARE of money paid by the wealthy overall would remain the same. Are you really that dense? I realize that libs don’t understand the Laffer curve, or economics, or business … but you’re proving to be especially dim-witted. If your income goes UP, but your tax rate goes down, what happens to your tax payment, you idiot? Hint, they stay the SAME or in some cases go UP! That is what Romney is saying. The rich will pay the same SHARE of the tax revenue based on a) economic growth b)closed loopholes and deductions.

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Trying to convince a liberal that true economic growth is what drives increased revenues is an impossible task. They’d rather tax everyone to death and create equal misery for the nation…. all in the name of that oh so Orwellian term: Economic Patriotism. The economy and patriotism, two worlds that they can’t seem to fathom.

ShadowsPawn on October 8, 2012 at 5:09 PM

BTW, dig the remark at about 0:40 into the clip, where it’s divulged that poor Denver got a “Minus 2″ on his history exam! I may have to start using that grading curve here.

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Hey even Maynard had a friendly personality and upright moral character….U2denver not so much.

HumpBot Salvation on October 8, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Yea! The same Pew poll that failed to take into account polling for Sat and Sunday after folks were able to digest the new UE report.

Unlike the poll conspiracy theorists here, i am willing to give you the 4 point Romney lead that isnt factoring the jobs report. I am even willing to give you the gallup tie that also didnt factor the jobs report. I will give you these polls if you promise to stop whining when the numbers correct next week.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Only an absolute fool would be excited about that job report.

ShadowsPawn on October 8, 2012 at 5:11 PM

romney got a debate bounce but that doesn’t mean it will last. he needs to do things that will keep the momentum going. (and we need to help promote him, of course) fortunately, the vp debate is coming up. it will be a great follow-up to the first debate. the first debate showed that romney was smart and confident, while obama was defensive and weak. then, the vp debate will show that ryan is also smart and confident, while biden is… biden. the undecided voters who were kinda swayed toward romney in the first debate will probably have their feelings more cemented because of the vp debate! and that will give romney even more of a bounce! but after that, he can’t do anything that will make him lose the momentum. especially with a much more desperate team obama at that point, that will do anything to win…

I can’t wait for Thursday night! Paul Ryan is going to have a field day by first swatting away the absurdities of BiteMe and then reiterating the Romney agenda. He is such a measured, well spoken, credible and forceful voice that he will reduce BiteMe to tears by the 1/2 hour mark.

America will have a great demonstration, once and for all, of the ranting, ridiculous mad man that Obama chose as his Veep to contrast with the bright, uplifting and commanding presence of Romney’s running mate. Thursday is going to be a blast and Ryan will more than sustain, he will accelerate, the burst of Mitt-mentum from Romney’s brilliant performance last week.

MJBrutus on October 8, 2012 at 5:07 PM

*buys a LOT of popcorn*

Sachiko on October 8, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Wow, libruls are in total meltdown. This is hilarious.

tkyang99 on October 8, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Yea! The same Pew poll that failed to take into account polling for Sat and Sunday after folks were able to digest the new UE report.

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 5:00 PM

The Pew poll was conducted October 4-7. In other words, contrary to your assertion above, it included Saturday and Sunday.

HTL on October 8, 2012 at 5:23 PM

I realize tax policy is complicated for the liberal uneducated conservative brain, but please don’t engage in revisionist history just because you haven’t followed Mitt Romney’s proposals on the campaign trail the last 18 months

FIFY

HotAirLib on October 8, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Idiot communist troll. Remind me just how “educated” GULAG (aka state of CA) is and just how deep in sh*t the state is today due to idiot academia running it. Education means one passed exams, it never means those who passed exams actually understand the subject.

Communists – those who have read Karl Marx’s Das Kapital

ANTI-communists – those who have read Karl Marx’s Das Kapital. And understood it.

I know which one you are.

riddick on October 8, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Go and vote in Yahoo’s online poll: ” Will Romney’s poll bounce last?” at Yahoo.com. So far it is Yes at 54 to O at 46, with over 300000 votes. It is not a scientific poll, but we should press the momentum meme every chance we could.

bayview on October 8, 2012 at 5:39 PM

IMO, if the jobs report had come in badly for Obama, Romney would have been the favorite to win the election. There is no doubt that he got a bounce and the re-set he so desperately needed.

But with the good jobs numbers and the huge increase in Consumer Confidence, which Rasmussen also shows today in his model, it looks like the momentum swung the other way over the weekend.

I still think Obama wins with around 51% of the vote. And if he does win, it was the jobs report that was the defining moment.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 5:41 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 5:41 PM

So you finally got your talking points from the DNC.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 5:43 PM

“gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 5:41 PM

So you finally got your talking points from the DNC.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 5:43 PM”

Nope, just good old common sense with a healthy dose of realism mixed in.

If Rasmussen had showed the lead building (or at least holding at 2 pts), then it was likely the bounce had held and the jobs number had little impact. But that is not the case. Obama won both the Saturday and Sunday samples. Tomorrow will tell the tale. If it was just the Dem doing better on weekend polling, then Romney will win Monday’s sample. If not, the election is back to pre-debate numbers.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Tomorrow will tell the tale. If it was just the Dem doing better on weekend polling, then Romney will win Monday’s sample. If not, the election is back to pre-debate numbers.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 5:49 PM

There is no way we are back to pre-debate numbers no matter what the polls say. And you damned well know it. I can smell the fear. Your guy came off as what he is- a lazy disengaged douchebag.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 5:55 PM

No president in the last 50 years has been re-elected with a 7.8% unemployment rate.

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 5:59 PM

No president in the last 50 years has been re-elected with a 7.8% unemployment rate.

Nicole Coulter on October 8, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Atomic!

Del Dolemonte on October 8, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Interesting that Ed mentions O losing Buzz Bissinger of Friday Night Lights (a show that I loved for the first 3 years or so).

Over at Ace there’s a Romney video from a campaign stop in VA and he is talking about personal stories (now that he has been informed that it’s okay not to be a robot).

He was talking about a 14 year old boy named David who was dying of Leukemia and asked Mitt to help him write his will and he was saying how the boy wasn’t emotional and crying. He knew what was coming and had ‘his eyes wide open’.

Then he says, “There’s a saying ‘Clear eyes. Full heart. Can’t Lose.’ David couldn’t lose.”

Obviously Friday Night Lights fans will recognize that as the team’s inspirational mantra before leaving the locker room and taking the field.

I could just picture that as a campaign stop theme the rest of the way. Mitt starting with ‘Clear eyes. Full heart.’ and 10,000 people in the crowd ending with ‘Can’t Lose!!!!!’

SittingDeadRed on October 8, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Trolls sure are easily snookered. Weak minded I guess.

Bmore on October 8, 2012 at 6:31 PM

All Romney needed was for voters to get to know him for the guy he is rather than the caricature he’s been portrayed as. The REAL Romney and his ideas ARE “likeable”.

Murf76 on October 8, 2012 at 7:19 PM

GnP writes like getalife.

hawkdriver on October 8, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Lol, this HotAirLib gal sure is a cokesucker.

the new aesthetic on October 8, 2012 at 8:12 PM

“Tomorrow will tell the tale. If it was just the Dem doing better on weekend polling, then Romney will win Monday’s sample. If not, the election is back to pre-debate numbers.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 5:49 PM

There is no way we are back to pre-debate numbers no matter what the polls say. And you damned well know it. I can smell the fear. Your guy came off as what he is- a lazy disengaged douchebag.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 5:55 PM”

But aren’t you basing your optimism on the better poll numbers for Romney?

If the polls now start to show Obama with that same 2-4 pt lead he held before the debate due to the jobs numbers, why are those less valid than the polls that showed Mitt getting a bump?

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 8:58 PM

It’s a bounce. Obama will get some of it back automatically, when people who didn’t tune in to the first debate, because they are not really paying attention to politics yet, grab a look at the second debate and find Mitt not quite as overwhelming and Obama not quite as hopeless as they had heard. Lowered expectations are on Obama’s side now.

David Blue on October 8, 2012 at 10:16 PM

“Tomorrow will tell the tale. If it was just the Dem doing better on weekend polling, then Romney will win Monday’s sample. If not, the election is back to pre-debate numbers.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 5:49 PM

There is no way we are back to pre-debate numbers no matter what the polls say. And you damned well know it. I can smell the fear. Your guy came off as what he is- a lazy disengaged douchebag.

Happy Nomad on October 8, 2012 at 5:55 PM”

But aren’t you basing your optimism on the better poll numbers for Romney?

If the polls now start to show Obama with that same 2-4 pt lead he held before the debate due to the jobs numbers, why are those less valid than the polls that showed Mitt getting a bump?

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 8:58 PM

I see you no longer deny that Obama is “your guy”. Heh. When are going to realize that no one here gives a damn about your obvious obsession with polls.

ShadowsPawn on October 8, 2012 at 11:20 PM

Even if only 70 million people tuned in to watch the debate, since then 300 million Americans have heard about it or seen the clips. As long as everyone keeps repeating the talking points, posting debate comments and highlighting Obama’s lack of clue, the momentum can only continue.

With Obama backed into a corner now, he’s going to come out swinging at the next debate. Problem is, he’s got no new message and he’ll come across as desperate, thin-skinned and petty.

JetBlast on October 9, 2012 at 12:23 PM

I am skeptical that there is as much of a “post-debate” bounce as there is the corrupt or incompetant polling organizations segueing into more rigorous polls and away from their phoney D+++++++ biases.

Old Country Boy on October 9, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Tomorrow will tell the tale. If it was just the Dem doing better on weekend polling, then Romney will win Monday’s sample. If not, the election is back to pre-debate numbers.

gumbyandpokey on October 8, 2012 at 5:49 PM

It is now tomorrow and it has gotten WORSE for Obama and better for Romney. What say you oh wise one gumbyandpokey?

IowaWoman on October 9, 2012 at 5:19 PM

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