Scarborough: Something’s awfully odd about this job report

posted at 10:41 am on October 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Yes, there is — but it may not be what people think it is, however.  Joe Scarborough and Willie Geist both express skepticism over the “major tickdown to 7.8 percent” in the unemployment rate from the addition of only 114,000 jobs — which isn’t enough to keep up with population growth.  What happened?  Instead of focusing on that point, Mark Halperin instead points to a tweet from Jack Welch in order to marginalize the question:

Here’s the tweet from Welch:

That’s been retweeted over 1500 times so far, which demonstrates that (a) Welch has a lot of followers on Twitter — over 1.3 million — and (b) more than a few people are puzzled about this jobs report.  Scarborough and Geist are right to express skepticism, but it doesn’t have to be a conspiracy theory to say that the numbers don’t make sense.  CNBC’s senior economics reporter said the same thing in his analysis this morning, too.  If the BLS wanted to tweak the numbers to make Obama look good, though, they would have come up with a better number than +114K overall.

What is the issue, then?  Kevin Hassett reminds us at The Corner that BLS uses two surveys, the Household survey and the Establishments survey, and the +873K number comes from the former while the +114K number comes from the latter.  The media usually reminds readers/viewers that the Household survey is considered less reliable than the Establishments survey … at least during Republican administrations:

Today’s jobs report is a classic. The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall. …

Back when President Bush presided over a jobless recovery, the household survey tended to show better news. At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect. That, of course, is what happens when a Republican is in office. For President Obama, you can expect a household survey lovefest. The AP story that went up at 8:33, of course, emphasized the household survey, even adding, “The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney.” Get ready for more of the same.

Keep an eye on the U-6 measure of unemployment and underemployment, as Chris Cuomo insisted on Twitter this morning. That’s not budging from the 14%-15% range in which it has been for the last three-plus years.

Update: Jim Pethokoukis notes that one doesn’t need a conspiracy theory to show why these numbers don’t work:

Be sure to read his post.

Update II:  Here’s more from RDQ Economics, courtesy of another Jim Pethokoukis post:

This report is a tale of two labor markets.  The establishment survey (payrolls) painted a picture of moderately growing employment over the last three months but at a marginally slower pace than over the last year.  At this pace of job creation, the unemployment rate should be barely drifting lower given underlying demographic trends.  In contrast, the household survey painted a picture of a sharply falling unemployment rate—down 1.2% points over the last 12 months. Such a rapid decline in the unemployment rate would be consistent with 4%–5% real economic growth historically but much of the decline is accounted for by people dropping out of the labor force (over the last year the employment-population ratio has risen to only 58.7% from 58.4%).  We believe part of the drop in the unemployment rate over the last two months is a statistical quirk (the household data show an increase in employment of 873,000 in September, which is completely implausible and likely a result of sampling volatility).  Moreover, declining labor force participation over the last year (resulting in 1.1 million people disappearing from the labor force) accounts for much of the rest of the decline.  With this report, the ISMs, and vehicle sales, the September economy is off to a better-than-expected start but nowhere near as good as suggested by the decline in the unemployment rate.

This is why it’s better to keep an eye on U-6; it has less inherent volatility.


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I can’t look at this . . .
Obama comes out in Fairfax, VA – and he’s all smiles. Gonna crow about new job numbers.
Happy days are here again!

TarheelBen on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Ed, I’m confused as to what you’re saying here. Seems you’re saying there’s no conspiracy then you cite text that the household numbers which are conveniently friendly and helpful to Obamuh would be considered irrelevant to a Republican president. What says conspiracy more?

Because Ed always has to explain things in the context of “being fair”.

Forget that gut feeling that the math doesn’t add up, forget the fact that if we don’t bleat about this lie that we are about to lose more of our freedoms and get screwed even more over the next 4 years.

All because we have to be “civil”.

What the in the world is the point of having HotAir if we aren’t going to fight. What is even the point of HotAir in a second Obama term?

Bluray on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

As Shrillary told Petraeus: “Willing suspension of disbelief”

SouthernGent on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

This will be a trial balloon to see if they get away with it, if it looks like a shit storm then thy will readjust it

Conservative4ev on October 5, 2012 at 11:16 AM

It looks like they’ll be readjusting then. Dropping it to 8% or even 7.9% may have barely floated over everyone’s head, but 7.8% just smacked people in the head and woke them up. Now people are saying “Wait a minute, this doesn’t seem right.”

MobileVideoEngineer on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Mika will explain.

ToddPA on October 5, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Riiiight…… don’t anyone make the mistake of holding their breath in anticipation!;)

Cody1991 on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Yep. Nobody’s buying it.

kingsjester on October 5, 2012 at 11:22 AM

I sure hope so con4ev

cmsinaz on October 5, 2012 at 11:22 AM

It’s bogus. The “household” number is the least reliable of the two surveys and in this case it is used by the media to bolster Obama. When Bush was president they did not use this number because it would have put Bush in a better position. This is just more left wing propaganda by the media and it must be exposed as such.

rplat on October 5, 2012 at 11:23 AM

When you’ve lost MSNBC…

gophergirl on October 5, 2012 at 11:25 AM

During Bush’s “jobless recovery”, many more new jobs were reported in the household survey than in the official establishment report. This was because job growth started in tiny enterprises. The same may be true now.

levi from queens on October 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Panhandling isn’t a tiny enterprise job.

LoganSix on October 5, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I can’t look at this . . .
Obama comes out in Fairfax, VA – and he’s all smiles. Gonna crow about new job numbers.
Happy days are here again!

TarheelBen on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Obama only preaches to his choir and anyone that believes him is beyond help. When faced with a man of true intellect and character he collapses like a sand castle in a hurricane. The man is as phony as a $3 bill.

rplat on October 5, 2012 at 11:25 AM

He’s addressing the numbers in Virginia, as we speak…

jimver on October 5, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Easy for him to do when he doesn’t have to answer to anyone. I wonder how he’ll hold up when he has to face Romney again?

“Uhh, Uh, Uhh, but they said so!”

texgal on October 5, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Our Trolls are upset that we’re calling them on this propaganda.

kingsjester on October 5, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I can’t look at this . . .
Obama comes out in Fairfax, VA – and he’s all smiles. Gonna crow about new job numbers.
Happy days are here again!

TarheelBen on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Let him spike the football. Hell, let him do an Icky Shuffle about 7.8% unemployment. We’ve seen what happens after he celebrates his own magnificence following one of his supposed achievements.

Nick_Angel on October 5, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I can’t look at this . . .
Obama comes out in Fairfax, VA – and he’s all smiles. Gonna crow about new job numbers.
Happy days are here again!

TarheelBen on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

He’s going to look like an idiot – more than he usually does.

About 10-20% of the people out there believe these numbers.

gophergirl on October 5, 2012 at 11:27 AM

So every time this report shows a high unemp %, the Obama admin warns not to read too much into it. But one lower unemp % ? Suddenly that validates all of Obama’s economic plans, and we need 4 more years of the same!

Yeaaaaaaah…

Marcola on October 5, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I can’t look at this . . .
Obama comes out in Fairfax, VA – and he’s all smiles. Gonna crow about new job numbers.
Happy days are here again!

TarheelBen on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

It is clear that Obama is looking to get the next group of naive college students to stupidly vote for him. He only seems to do events at colleges like today’s at GMU or yesterday’s in Denver. Romney in the meantime is talking about the war on coal down in Abingdon. Which one seems the more serious about solving problems and not just getting reelected?

Happy Nomad on October 5, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Because Ed always has to explain things in the context of “being fair”.

Forget that gut feeling that the math doesn’t add up, forget the fact that if we don’t bleat about this lie that we are about to lose more of our freedoms and get screwed even more over the next 4 years.

All because we have to be “civil”.

What the in the world is the point of having HotAir if we aren’t going to fight. What is even the point of HotAir in a second Obama term?

Bluray on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

“Fair” my backside . . . take that crap to Sunday school. We’re fighting for the survival of this country and if it takes an unfair fight to accomplish that end, then so be it.

rplat on October 5, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I’m so confused….it’s a conspiracy or isn’t it??

tkyang99 on October 5, 2012 at 11:28 AM

..it’s all about numbers with this crowd, innit? First they cook the poll numbers in September and then they cook the employment numbers in October.

If Romney gets elected, can you imagine the diarrhea tsunami of “tell-alls” rolling out from the former regime?

The War Planner on October 5, 2012 at 11:28 AM

If I were Romney I would give out specific dates when the Unemployment numbers came out and gave a boost to the president only to have them revised higher a month later with no MSM touching the subject.

Guest1.1 on October 5, 2012 at 11:29 AM

But one lower unemp % ? Suddenly that validates all of Obama’s economic plans, and we need 4 more years of the same!

Yeaaaaaaah…

Marcola on October 5, 2012 at 11:27 AM

With a massive drop in the number of jobless that lacks any rational explanation. IMO this isn’t going to fly, not because it is clear Obama and his people are lying their asses off but because people who are jobless are not seeing the opportunity that supposedly the “light giver” has soldiered through in the fourth quarter to get the jobless rate down to where it was four years ago.

Happy Nomad on October 5, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Easy for him to do when he doesn’t have to answer to anyone. I wonder how he’ll hold up when he has to face Romney again?

“Uhh, Uh, Uhh, but they said so!”

texgal on October 5, 2012 at 11:26 AM

..to your point, ma’am.

The War Planner on October 5, 2012 at 11:32 AM

It is clear that Obama is looking to get the next group of naive college students to stupidly vote for him. He only seems to do events at colleges like today’s at GMU or yesterday’s in Denver. Romney in the meantime is talking about the war on coal down in Abingdon. Which one seems the more serious about solving problems and not just getting reelected?

Happy Nomad on October 5, 2012 at 11:28 AM

That’s all he can get to come to his rallies, grown ups are at work and no one wants to see this guy anymore. He is losing Virginia and Ohio . This was a Hail Mary

Conservative4ev on October 5, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Has the method for determining underemployment changed? If someone has 2 or more part time jobs, are they now considered fully employed?

Philly on October 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

If you worked a single hour in the past month, you are not considered unemployed.

BacaDog on October 5, 2012 at 11:33 AM

People vote on their own experiences. The truth is, people still can’t find jobs. I know of a few people that want jobs and there are none. Just because a report says unemployment went down doesn’t mean people will believe it.

mrscullen on October 5, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Okay, if the drop is from summer revisions and increase in PT employees, then I’m left wondering how many people were hired part time by Obama campaign, and SEIU in the last 60 days…

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/233549-seiu-launches-political-field-campaign-to-boost-obama

mxt on October 5, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Any word on what Obama is saying in Virginia?

Nick_Angel on October 5, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I think a lot of people will believe these numbers, and won’t stop to think that 7.8% is not what he promised.

Romney needs to remind people that this unemployment rate is not celebration-worthy.

Also, God help us. It’s like David and Goliath. We have the truth. They have propaganda lie machines and the gov’t dependents. And the latter is a big, big group.

Grace_is_sufficient on October 5, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Out: U3 rate

In: Chicago rate

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Obama made a fool out himself in front of 70 million americans. Think people are gonna forget that?

rubberneck on October 5, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Considering Gallup had, at both mid-September and the end of the month, a seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate of 8.1% (unchanged from , and the respective margins of error are completely outside each other, at least one of the measures of unemployment is full of Delta Sierra. We won’t know for sure until March, unfortunately, but I’ll say that BLS doesn’t just stand for Bureau of Labor Statistics and also note that Gallup whiffed low compared to BLS on the underemployment part of U-6.

Steve Eggleston on October 5, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Joe Sixpack is at home, dodging collection agency calls, as he is looking online for a job, and thinking….

Dang, Obama’s 7.8% is lookin good.

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 11:44 AM

The fix is in folks . . . more bogus job numbers to follow the bogus poll numbers. If lies were virtues, Obama and his merry band of Marxists would be the most virtuous people in the history of mankind. Believe his conjured garbage at your own peril.

rplat on October 5, 2012 at 11:44 AM

That should read “(unchanged from the end of August)”

Steve Eggleston on October 5, 2012 at 11:46 AM

First Helicopter Ben rides to the rescue with QE3 and now this. It will be interesting to see if Americans really are dumb enough to disregard the obvious and reelect an incompetent pop star because it makes such a nice social statement and you feel so warm inside…

litebrite on October 5, 2012 at 11:47 AM

-So how many jobs do you work to survive?

“Six.”

-Very good, that’s six new jobs.

Bishop on October 5, 2012 at 11:53 AM

The unemployment rate fell largely because 368,000 people stopped looking for work, many of them young people. Just 63.5% of the working-age population was either employed or actively looking for work — a 30-year low.

2nd Ammendment Mother on October 5, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Obama made a fool out himself in front of 70 million americans. Think people are gonna forget that?

rubberneck on October 5, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Sadly, a rather large % will do just that.
They just feel better having a fool for a leader.

Jabberwock on October 5, 2012 at 11:55 AM

KICKSTART.com has created more jobs than Obama.

Varchild on October 5, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Bernie Madoff has been consulting with the BLS.

Weekend at Bernies!!!!

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 11:56 AM

I missed the memo stating that any number < 8% = wonderful news. And no postwar president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 6%, with the exception of Reagan in '84, when it was 7.2%, and the caveat there was that in the months preceding the election the rate dropped a full 3 points. Nevermind the devilish details, like conflicting data and a huge spike in part-time jobs accounting for the rise, all Romney has to say is after four years, this is the best Obama can do?

Erich66 on October 5, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Given that there are two surveys, how much double counting is going on?

Jabberwock on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

First Helicopter Ben rides to the rescue with QE3 and now this. It will be interesting to see if Americans really are dumb enough to disregard the obvious and reelect an incompetent pop star because it makes such a nice social statement and you feel so warm inside…

litebrite on October 5, 2012 at 11:47 AM

The historic meme is over. We’ve had a black President and he was a failure. His failures obviously have nothing to do with the color of his skin, but the fact that he is an outright marxist who hates America. I think the blantant lying and manipulation is finally coming to critical mass and people don’t care about “looking cool” anymore. It’s become about survival.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

And Mitt Romney can’t be bothered to make a campaign appearance today? Are you freaking kidding me?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

September Jobs Report released to skeptical reception
http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/10/september-jobs-report-released-to-skeptical-reception/

James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute referred to the report as “the sickly, stagnant September jobs report,” and that “only in an era of depressingly diminished expectations could the September jobs report be called a good one.”

While in months past, a shrinking labor pool had contributed to the percent unemployed, it appears that the total number of workers has increased by 873,000, which, according to CNBC, is “the highest one-month jump in 29 years.” Pethokoukis continued that if labor force participation rate had remained at the same rate as it was when Obama first came to office, unemployment would actually be 10.7 percent:

The shrunken workforce remains shrunken. If the labor force participation rate was the same as when President Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 10.7%. If the participation rate had just stayed steady since the start of the year, the unemployment rate would be 8.4% vs. 8.3%. Where’s the progress?…even the artificially depressed 7.8% unemployment rate is way above the 5.6% unemployment rate the White House predicted for September 2012 if Congress passed the $800 billion stimulus package back in 2009.

Do the cooked BLS numbers indicate desperation within team Downgrade especially after his atrocious meltdown Wednesday night?

Chip on October 5, 2012 at 12:00 PM

ed is a progressive, simple really. helping with a “nice” explanation for obamas’ BS numbers only outs him as a somewhat left leaning plant amongst us. admit it ed, your soft covering for anything dear leader says under the guise of “being fair” is like a drumbeat for the hot air crowd who’ve had to listen to these types of lies for four years!

tm11999 on October 5, 2012 at 12:00 PM

And Mitt Romney can’t be bothered to make a campaign appearance today? Are you freaking kidding me?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Slow down on the bath salts. He’s about to speak… even CNN is on it.

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 12:00 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

I’m voting for Romney, but am not really a supporter of his.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Do you always contradict yourself like that?

Chip on October 5, 2012 at 12:01 PM

The best news anywhere in the U.S. economy over the past three months has been in the government sector, where unemployment has dropped dramatically from 5.7 percent in July to 5.1 percent in August to 4.3 percent in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Both the federal and state governments increased their employees in July, August and September.

Government jobs are where it’s at. Honestly, R&R should be all over this.

mrscullen on October 5, 2012 at 12:01 PM

And Mitt Romney can’t be bothered to make a campaign appearance today? Are you freaking kidding me?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Do you take PE stupid pills or are you just a natural?

VegasRick on October 5, 2012 at 12:02 PM

fraud: DLS added 800,000 work at home jobs – they are not subject to unemployment

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 12:02 PM

And Mitt Romney can’t be bothered to make a campaign appearance today? Are you freaking kidding me?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

So you went from the numbers are good for Obama to Mitt Romney needs to make a campaign appearance? Huh?

You really need to work on your knee-jerk reaction… (as in not having one).

MobileVideoEngineer on October 5, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Mitt speaking live at “Coal Country” rally in VA

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Its government jobs. All these “found jobs” are government jobs. What a joke. Massaging the numbers with government jobs, not private sector jobs.

Fact Check: Labor Secretary Solis Misleads on Jobs Revisions

jazzmo on October 5, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Actually the job numbers are up because Obama just hired a new staff of debate consultants, but they haven’t yet factored in the fact that the Red Sox manager is out of a job.

Don L on October 5, 2012 at 12:07 PM

By Election Day the MSM will have employment down to 5.0%.

The numbers will be a lie……but since when did the MSM care about the truth?

GarandFan on October 5, 2012 at 12:07 PM

And Mitt Romney can’t be bothered to make a campaign appearance today? Are you freaking kidding me?!?!

daveyandgoliath on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Today, 11:35 AM EDT

Mitt Romney
Hosting campaign event at Carter Machinery
18471 Spring Creek Road, Abingdon, Va.

Tonight, 6:15 PM EDT

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Pier Park
550 2nd Ave. NE, St. Petersburg, Fla.

No go find us some more online polls so we can laugh at you some more.

F-

Del Dolemonte on October 5, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Msdnc really pushing the household survey as the gold standard

cmsinaz on October 5, 2012 at 12:09 PM

A pool on what the next jobs report will say, right before election day? 7.7%? 7.6?

J.E. Dyer on October 5, 2012 at 12:10 PM

Gumby mitt is speaking in va now

cmsinaz on October 5, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Holy Shiite !

Axelfraud and his gaggle of corruptocrat socialists saw the post debate internal polling – they are going all in on with this move…. whoa.

(A few pollsters at Gallup are experiencing a little sphincter tightening right about now)

FlaMurph on October 5, 2012 at 12:11 PM

You know there’s something awfully screwy about this number, or my name isn’t Larrimore. And it isn’t.

The Rogue Tomato on October 5, 2012 at 12:11 PM

And Mitt Romney can’t be bothered to make a campaign appearance today? Are you freaking kidding me?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Wow. You are a cretin!

Regarding the UR…Many or skeptical but even with that..All Romney has to say is that Obama borrowed and spent $1 trillion dollars on a stimulus and they said the UR would be like 5.6% right now…So not only were they way off but they wasted a boatload of money as well.

Then you also point out how these #s don’t make any sense, people are giving up and not being counted and the vast majority of new jobs in these reports are part time…Not a real recovery.

jaygatz33 on October 5, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Romney hitting a home run on U3

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 12:12 PM

The fact that the unemployment number is flawed and goes down when people fall off the unemployment system is more widely known then ever.

Resolute on October 5, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Government jobs are where it’s at. Honestly, R&R should be all over this.

mrscullen on October 5, 2012 at 12:01 PM

.
Dittto that-
Its no secret the DC metropolis has seen this biggest economic boom over ANYONE else in the country.

Maybe trickle down governmint does work ???

FlaMurph on October 5, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Obama can be as giddy as he wants, but the bottom line is that if we elect him for another 4 years and continue with the same policies, we’ll be talking about an unemployment rate of 7.5% in 2016.

That doesn’t sound too good to me.

If Obama thinks that is a “winner”, then so be it. Shows just how far out of touch with reality he is.

ButterflyDragon on October 5, 2012 at 12:15 PM

James Pethokoukis – Good chance the final pre-election jobs report will show surge back above 8%

No way Jim. This regime would never let the rate go above 8% a few days before the election. It will probably tick down again.

Wigglesworth on October 5, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Gee, Joe. Ya think? Don’t look for the MSM to look too hard into that bold assertion. It’s time to move forwaaard.

kens on October 5, 2012 at 12:18 PM

You know there’s something awfully screwy about this number, or my name isn’t Larrimore. And it isn’t.

The Rogue Tomato on October 5, 2012 at 12:11 PM

“I’m not the one to compwain, Mr. Wefewee, but I thought you said no wough stuff!”

Del Dolemonte on October 5, 2012 at 12:20 PM

Well, this exactly why, the eSTAB-lishment Republicans were told to use the U3 numbers which are around 11.5%! But No! The eSTAB-lishment Republicans, just like libs, are the smartest men on the block. Just ask them, They’ll tell you! Here you go Rove & the rest of the eSTABs, the Dems just destroyed Millions of Dollars in ads because once again, you PUTZES were outsmarted! So, which is it? Are you stupid or are you working for the other side?
Final UPDATE for those following:How to take on the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 5, 2012 at 12:26 PM

According to Twitchy, the Bond Market has apparently yawned at these bogus employment numbers. It hit the snooze button and rolled over so the rate movement you thought you saw was just the blanket settling back onto the bed, signalling that no real change has occurred. The U3 rate is merely the bling Obamuh is showing off today.

stukinIL4now on October 5, 2012 at 12:27 PM

See that the MSM is sending out their shills to reassure us that the numbers haven’t been, and could never be cooked.

And by the way, these aren’t the droids you’re looking for either.

JFS61 on October 5, 2012 at 12:28 PM

I’m voting for Romney, but am not really a supporter of his.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Thanks for the laugh.

jazzmo on October 5, 2012 at 12:30 PM

A pool on what the next jobs report will say, right before election day? 7.7%? 7.6?

J.E. Dyer on October 5, 2012 at 12:10 PM

6.66% Just to make it sound reasonable.

texgal on October 5, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Bryan Tau of Politico44 (the rah-rah blog for the Obysmal administration) reports on the weasel-words from the WH:

“The monthly employment and unemployment figures can be volatile, and employment estimates can be subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report and it is informative to consider each report in the context of other data that are becoming available,” Krueger wrote.

onlineanalyst on October 5, 2012 at 12:31 PM

A pool on what the next jobs report will say, right before election day? 7.7%? 7.6?

J.E. Dyer on October 5, 2012 at 12:10 PM

6.6% Because O can!

texgal on October 5, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Mitt Romney
Hosting campaign event at Carter Machinery
18471 Spring Creek Road, Abingdon, Va.

Tonight, 6:15 PM EDT

Mitt Romney
Hosting rally at Pier Park
550 2nd Ave. NE, St. Petersburg, Fla.

No go find us some more online polls so we can laugh at you some more.

F-

Del Dolemonte on October 5, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Going!

cantaffordcollege on October 5, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Unemployment Rate Plummets to 4.3%–For Government Workers

“The best news anywhere in the U.S. economy over the past three months has been in the government sector, where unemployment has dropped dramatically from 5.7 percent in July to 5.1 percent in August to 4.3 percent in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

jazzmo on October 5, 2012 at 12:33 PM

pollsters
mainstream media
Labor Department

Arrayed in a vast conspiracy. Don aluminum foil helmets on my signal.

plewis on October 5, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Mel over at JustOneMinute raised a good point.

The unemployment stats that the BLS uses are collected by means of a Census Bureau survey.

What former Chicago ballerina moved the Census Bureau into which large White Washington DC building in 2009?

Chickyraptor on October 5, 2012 at 12:37 PM

“Del Dolemonte”

Hey Del,

Confident Romney will win?

How about if Romney wins, I leave the site and if Obama wins, you disappear?

Do you have the courage of your convictions?

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 12:40 PM

at least one of the measures of unemployment is full of Delta Sierra. …

Steve Eggleston on October 5, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Donkey Sh… um, doo-doo?

I like it and I’m going to steal it! :-)

Mary in LA on October 5, 2012 at 12:41 PM

And Mitt Romney can’t be bothered to make a campaign appearance today? Are you freaking kidding me?!?!

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Do you have any idea how stupid you look?

Blow it out your……………pick an orifice.

Solaratov on October 5, 2012 at 12:45 PM

How about if Romney wins, I leave the site and if Obama wins, you disappear?

Do you have the courage of your convictions?

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 12:40 PM

I can’t speak for Del, but I would like to ask you this:

You’ve said you’re going to vote for Romney, and yet you seem to prefer that he lose the election. I infer that you preferred another candidate in the GOP primary. Will you tell me who that was? Thanks much…

Mary in LA on October 5, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Mel over at JustOneMinute raised a good point.

The unemployment stats that the BLS uses are collected by means of a Census Bureau survey.

What former Chicago ballerina moved the Census Bureau into which large White Washington DC building in 2009?

Chickyraptor on October 5, 2012 at 12:37 PM

I couldn’t possibly see anyone in the White House do something for purely political reasons — especially including something political to keep their job and that of their bosses.

I just don’t think the Chicago White House operates that way.

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 12:51 PM

The sarcasm… it burns! Like mustard gas! … Can’t … breathe…
[coughs, chokes, passes out]

Mary in LA on October 5, 2012 at 12:56 PM

“I can’t speak for Del, but I would like to ask you this:

You’ve said you’re going to vote for Romney, and yet you seem to prefer that he lose the election. I infer that you preferred another candidate in the GOP primary. Will you tell me who that was? Thanks much…

Mary in LA on October 5, 2012 at 12:45 PM”

I voted for Santorum in the GOP primary. I’m very socially conservative and thought he had a better chance to connect with Reagan Democrats.

I’ll vote for Romney in the general election and hope he wins, but am 100% convinced that he won’t.

I’ve always contended that Obama is the luckiest politician alive. The IL sex scandal got him his Senate seat, the financial crisis/meltdown got him the Presidency and now the last minute recovery/jobs numbers solidify his re-election bid. Just as in real life, some people are just born lucky, and Obama is one of them. He’s also a very good politician (debate notwithstanding) and a great and tireless campaigner. And he’s not afraid to play dirty to get what he wants and to win, which is all that matters in politics.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Gallup today:

October 5, 2012
The Payroll to Population employment rate, as measured by Gallup, was 45.1% for the month of September, a slight decline from 45.3% in August

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157892/payroll-population-rate-september.aspx

strictnein on October 5, 2012 at 12:59 PM

gumbyandpokey, there is a more nefarious reason he won that Senate seat.

kingsjester on October 5, 2012 at 1:10 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 12:59 PM

Luck” has nothing to do with lil barry’s political fortunes. You’d do a lot better to research which anti-American billionaires and organizations have supported him throughout his ‘career’. The way has always been paved smoothly for lil barry.
Unfortunately for barry, it looks as though he has run into a rough patch this time – and there may not be enough time for his benefactors to pave the way.

Now, just haul your little eeyore butt back to the basement and take a nap.

Solaratov on October 5, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Obama’s unemployment report expects us to believe this…

The number of employed adults increased 873,000

We added almost a million jobs in one month?????

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Rasmussen poll of Florida…

Romney 49
Obama 47

Too bad this won’t last. It might have if the jobs numbers had been poor.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 1:13 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Nobody’s buying what you’ve been selling all moring.

Does Axlerod pay you by the post?

kingsjester on October 5, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Rasmussen poll of Florida…

Romney 49
Obama 47

Too bad this won’t last. It might have if the jobs numbers had been poor.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Hahaha, says the same person who thinks Obama has a shot in Missouri.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 5, 2012 at 1:18 PM

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