Scarborough: Something’s awfully odd about this job report

posted at 10:41 am on October 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Yes, there is — but it may not be what people think it is, however.  Joe Scarborough and Willie Geist both express skepticism over the “major tickdown to 7.8 percent” in the unemployment rate from the addition of only 114,000 jobs — which isn’t enough to keep up with population growth.  What happened?  Instead of focusing on that point, Mark Halperin instead points to a tweet from Jack Welch in order to marginalize the question:

Here’s the tweet from Welch:

That’s been retweeted over 1500 times so far, which demonstrates that (a) Welch has a lot of followers on Twitter — over 1.3 million — and (b) more than a few people are puzzled about this jobs report.  Scarborough and Geist are right to express skepticism, but it doesn’t have to be a conspiracy theory to say that the numbers don’t make sense.  CNBC’s senior economics reporter said the same thing in his analysis this morning, too.  If the BLS wanted to tweak the numbers to make Obama look good, though, they would have come up with a better number than +114K overall.

What is the issue, then?  Kevin Hassett reminds us at The Corner that BLS uses two surveys, the Household survey and the Establishments survey, and the +873K number comes from the former while the +114K number comes from the latter.  The media usually reminds readers/viewers that the Household survey is considered less reliable than the Establishments survey … at least during Republican administrations:

Today’s jobs report is a classic. The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall. …

Back when President Bush presided over a jobless recovery, the household survey tended to show better news. At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect. That, of course, is what happens when a Republican is in office. For President Obama, you can expect a household survey lovefest. The AP story that went up at 8:33, of course, emphasized the household survey, even adding, “The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney.” Get ready for more of the same.

Keep an eye on the U-6 measure of unemployment and underemployment, as Chris Cuomo insisted on Twitter this morning. That’s not budging from the 14%-15% range in which it has been for the last three-plus years.

Update: Jim Pethokoukis notes that one doesn’t need a conspiracy theory to show why these numbers don’t work:

Be sure to read his post.

Update II:  Here’s more from RDQ Economics, courtesy of another Jim Pethokoukis post:

This report is a tale of two labor markets.  The establishment survey (payrolls) painted a picture of moderately growing employment over the last three months but at a marginally slower pace than over the last year.  At this pace of job creation, the unemployment rate should be barely drifting lower given underlying demographic trends.  In contrast, the household survey painted a picture of a sharply falling unemployment rate—down 1.2% points over the last 12 months. Such a rapid decline in the unemployment rate would be consistent with 4%–5% real economic growth historically but much of the decline is accounted for by people dropping out of the labor force (over the last year the employment-population ratio has risen to only 58.7% from 58.4%).  We believe part of the drop in the unemployment rate over the last two months is a statistical quirk (the household data show an increase in employment of 873,000 in September, which is completely implausible and likely a result of sampling volatility).  Moreover, declining labor force participation over the last year (resulting in 1.1 million people disappearing from the labor force) accounts for much of the rest of the decline.  With this report, the ISMs, and vehicle sales, the September economy is off to a better-than-expected start but nowhere near as good as suggested by the decline in the unemployment rate.

This is why it’s better to keep an eye on U-6; it has less inherent volatility.


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Figures Lie and Liars Figure.

Chip on October 5, 2012 at 10:43 AM

The latest polls tell you exactly why this report is being doctored.

SouthernGent on October 5, 2012 at 10:43 AM

I don’t even have the heart to Bishop. These numbers, and their manipulation, make me sick to my stomach.

herm2416 on October 5, 2012 at 10:44 AM

If MSM is skeptical and actually reports that it is, then something is wrong in Barrys world. Liberal Joe S. smells a rat too.

Philly on October 5, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Thewe’s something awfuwwy scwewy going on awound hewe!

/fudd

CurtZHP on October 5, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Obviously Jack Welch is a racist.

Dack Thrombosis on October 5, 2012 at 10:46 AM

What’s the matter, Joe? No automatic O-gasm this month? Or were you properly chastised for your idiotic cheerleading when last months numbers hit?

Red Cloud on October 5, 2012 at 10:46 AM

If this is a legal, necessary step to re-elect the president who saved the auto industry, reformed health care, is winding down two stupidly run wars, and kept the economy from sliding into a depression, I’ll kee the change, thank you His pragmatism gives me hope for this November.
 
urban elitist on February 7, 2012 at 1:35 PM

rogerb on October 5, 2012 at 10:46 AM

CNBC questioned the Secretary of Labor about the strange numbers and now Fox News is raising suspicions and going through it. Folks ain’t buying it.

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Recovery!!!
//

Just wait until January folks when all those part-time jobs are obsolete and we have Obama for another 4 years and taxes go up.

mrscullen on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

There is no manipulation. It’s pretty simple: 1/4 = 25%. 1/3 = 33%. It’s as simply as that.

Notorious GOP on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

The Obama campaign is hiring their dead voters. That’s the increase.

RBMN on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

It’s all the racists leaving the country because they can’t stand having a black president that is bringing down the unemployment numbers, obviously.

profitsbeard on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Joe Trippi is on Kilmeade spinning for Barry. The admin has dispatched the moonbat sycophants to spin.

Philly on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Too bad Willie and Joe were the only skeptics this am
…everyone else on the show defending the crap out of these numbers

cmsinaz on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I don’t even have the heart to Bishop. These numbers, and their manipulation, make me sick to my stomach.

herm2416 on October 5, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Tell you what, you get to be first on the QOTD tonight even if you don’t comment. Just don’t let my union boss know or will be bad for me.

Bishop on October 5, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Switched over to CNN….. they were ecstatic

cmsinaz on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Heh… too bad the debate on the economy was couple of days ago.

Anyway, by the time the Ryan/Goofball debate comes up, that phoney report will blow up like a 2-week old beached whale.

CPT. Charles on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Is there anyone here who didn’t think that Barry would frog up the October numbers?

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Isn’t Willie Geist a KKK member?

Dack Thrombosis on October 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Ann Romney has a horse, and Barky intentionally let himself be slaughtered during the debate to draw Rombo into a trap.

Bishop on October 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

O cannot win if the unemployment rate is above 8%. Now its fixed.
And the country is going in the right direction.
Better get off the computer before lightening strikes me for lying.

Belle on October 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

The employment numbers and the way the are being massaged by the Labor Department show the level of contempt this administration has for the IQ of the populace.

dirtseller on October 5, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Yeah, but not in a good way. People are talking about Americans leaving the work force and only getting part-time jobs if they’re lucky enough to still be looking.

Fallon on October 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Who knew a lie meant to help out Obama would actually have the opposite effect and bring the truth out from the shadows.

Hahahaha, Obama should have just let sleeping dogs lie. Wait, is that racist?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 5, 2012 at 10:45 AM

MobileVideoEngineer on October 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

LOL.

Mika: OOOOKAAAAY…

nitzsche on October 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I don’t even have the heart to Bishop. These numbers, and their manipulation, make me sick to my stomach.

herm2416 on October 5, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Actually there is another way to look at it, that may cheer you up. Zero and company know they are sinking fast and this report is an act of total desperation and utter panic.

Expect more and bigger lies between now and November.

dogsoldier on October 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

At this rate, they’ll have the U3 rate down to 5% by election day. Lying bastards all.

TXUS on October 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Even if the numbers are real – this just makes Obama seem like a crook.

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

If the addition of 114,000 jobs really caused a 0.3% decrease (from 8.1% to 7.8%) in the unemployment rate, that would mean that the total labor force in the United States is 114,000 / 0.003 = 38 million. In a nation of 310 million inhabitants, only 38 million (12.3%) of them are in the labor force?

As former President George W. Bush would have said, this is fuzzy math, or fudged figures.

Or just plain B. S., designed to make people think the economy is getting better and vote for Obama.

BTW, I lost MY job in September…did the Bureau of Lying Statistics count ME???

Steve Z on October 5, 2012 at 10:52 AM

If this is a legal, necessary step to re-elect the president who saved the auto industry, reformed health care, is winding down two stupidly run wars, and kept the economy from sliding into a depression, I’ll kee the change, thank you His pragmatism gives me hope for this November.

urban elitist on February 7, 2012 at 1:35 PM

More US troops were killed in afghanistan idiot since this incompetent preezy took over,, and iraq is a disaster now and under iran’s influence because he didn’t keep any troops there…..take your imbecility and lies some place else…

jimver on October 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Mark Halperin’s sourpuss face since The Debate to End All Debates has brought me much cheer. He’s still really, really upset. :-)

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Oh Joe, you rascal. Do you not believe The Regime’s numbers? Are you daring to question the logic? Do the figures not add up for you?
Be careful, you’re starting to sound an aweful lot like those evil TEA partiers.

smfic on October 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Mika Brzezinski… looking harsh and agitated, as usual.

Glenn Jericho on October 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Keep an eye on the U-6 measure of unemployment and underemployment, as Chris Cuomo insisted on Twitter this morning. That’s not budging from the 14%-15% range in which it has been for the last three-plus years.

U-6, there was a German Nazi submarine identified as U-6.

German submarines sank merchant ships and innocent men died.

Romney is paying attention to the U-6 unemployment number.

Therefore, Romney is a Nazi who likes to sink ships and kill innocent men.

You have to think in Russian Liberal.

Bishop on October 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

The only surprise here is that Joe Scarborough and a few other semi-lapdogs are refusing to swallow this newest snake-oil concoction, which, by the way, has been offered to us by the same administration that insists consumer prices have remained stable the last four years.

Scriptor on October 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

The first president in history to reduce the unemployment rate by driving millions out of the workforce.

And he’s overjoyed because of it!!

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

CNBC questioned the Secretary of Labor about the strange numbers and now Fox News is raising suspicions and going through it. Folks ain’t buying it.

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

It’s falling apart for Zero. As I posted on the other thread I looked at the sites where the report is posted. NO ONE IS BUYING THIS.

dogsoldier on October 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

How many times has Chrissy had to change underwear in the last hour?

docflash on October 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

So, this means that Pres Romney won’t be able to lower the unemployment numbers at all in his first term, since the same lying liars will still be in place at the BLS and msm.

Kissmygrits on October 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

It’s math.

Keyser-Soze on October 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Former GE CEO: Obama cooked September job data
http://thehill.com/blogs/twitter-room/other-news/260459-former-ge-ceo-obama-cooked-september-jobs-data

The unemployment rate fell below 8 percent in September to 7.8 percent, providing a boost to President Obama in the wake of his widely panned debate performance and just a month before Election Day.

The economy added only 114,00 jobs, yet the unemployment rate dropped from 8.1 percent to 7.8. The report revised figures up in July and August, and it showed more people are now entering the workforce.

Southern by choice22 on October 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

During Bush’s “jobless recovery”, many more new jobs were reported in the household survey than in the official establishment report. This was because job growth started in tiny enterprises. The same may be true now.

levi from queens on October 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

It’s like Obama is the Dodgeball Ninja.

bloggless on October 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

More to the point from Legal In.sur.ec.tion:

James Pethokoukis explains:

Is this the Obama October Surprise?

Only in an era of depressingly diminished expectations could the September jobs report be called a good one. It really isn’t. Not at all.

1. Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs. As the Labor Department noted:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

2. And take-home pay? Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by just 1.8 percent. When you take inflation into account, wages are flat to down.

3. The broader U-6 rate — which takes into account part-time workers who want full-time work and lots of discouraged workers who’ve given up looking — stayed unchanged at 14.7%. That’s a better gauge of the true unemployment rate and state of the American labor market.

4. The shrunken workforce remains shrunken. If the labor force participation rate was the same as when President Obama took office, the unemployment rate would be 10.7%. If the participation rate had just stayed steady since the start of the year, the unemployment rate would be 8.4% vs. 8.3%. Where’s the progress?

———————-

Hiring for seasonal jobs often occurs at this time of year. They aren’t full time jobs. They are low-paying part time jobs that may, or may not, develop into full time employment.

Regardless of how the administration spins the numbers people understand the situation has not improved in the private sector and that their lives and livelihoods are as precarious as ever.

Cody1991 on October 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

The next report just a few days before the election will be interesting. If there was some kind of survey oddity in today’s report the next one might jump back up to 8%.

Mark1971 on October 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Has the method for determining underemployment changed? If someone has 2 or more part time jobs, are they now considered fully employed?

Philly on October 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Even if the numbers are real – this just makes Obama seem like a crook.

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

This.

If Team Barry pounds this hard, it’s going to turn the Biden/Ryan debate into a nightmare for them.

budfox on October 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Question 1. Is this the same unemployment figure that was supposed to be under 6% by now thanks to the stimulus?

Question 1a. Or is that a different unemployment figure?

Answer 1. Shut up.

Answer 1a. OBAMAPHONE!!!!111!!!!!1!!

Left Coast Right Mind on October 5, 2012 at 10:59 AM

So they cooked the books enough that “Jobless rate” is now one of the 5 most popular searched on Bing and all the top hits proclaim “Jobless rate tumbles to four-year low” and “Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest Since Obama’s Inauguration.”

Romney loses his balls and backtracks his “47%” comment so this is also one of the top 5 Bing searches.

What debate the other night?

CrustyB on October 5, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Mark Halperin is a disgusting pig. Now he wants to make Jack Welch the face of the GOP? He’s just an old guy on Twitter. Who gives a crap what he says? But now Halperin sets the meme for the day, “here come those nutty #freakshow Republicans crying conspiracy on the jobs numbers.”

BTW, lots of college kids get part-time jobs in September and school districts hire maintenance workers and such. It isn’t surprising to see the household survey numbers jump in September, though this jump doesn’t pass the smell test.

rockmom on October 5, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Well, who didn’t see this coming. Two top stories ” Great Jobs numbers make Obama path to re-election easier.”and “Romney admits he was wrong about the 47% gaffffeee.” My emotions can’t take this roller coaster much longer…

sandee on October 5, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Barry/Axelrod hired a bunch of lairs, hecklers and vote fraudsters who will work through Nov 6.

bayview on October 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

/Jedi mind Trick These are not the Obama Chickens that you seek… Some people have said it straight up, others have waffled and others are trying to make believe it is the truth. Anyone with two functional brain cells knows that these new BLS numbers are complete bullshit chickenshit…

SWalker on October 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I don’t think even low information voters are going to buy this rapid 0.5% drop.

CorporatePiggy on October 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

This.

If Team Barry pounds this hard, it’s going to turn the Biden/Ryan debate into a nightmare for them.

budfox on October 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

..hermano!

The War Planner on October 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I have a suspicion that the seasonal part time holiday work numbers that don’t happen until next month, have been quietly added a month early.

portlandon on October 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

This ‘dual number’ strategerie was obviously set up weeks in advance by Team Obama — mix and match the numbers, by adding in secondary work considered even lower on the labor force totem pole than the “McJobs” the Democrats decried undeer Bush 43, in order to get unemployment below the 8 percent mark.

The problem for them is they were expecting to do this after a performance by Obama at Wednesday’s debate that would have allowed the Democratic spinners both within the party and within the big media to at the very least call it a draw if not an outright win for the president. If Thursday had been spent with both sides doing one of those “Less Filling/Tastes Great” debates over who won the debate, today’s unemployment numbers were designed to come out and bring the hammer down on Romney’s arguments.

But Obama was so horrifically bad on Wednesday not even his own team could come up with a coherent set of talking points to explain how he had won the debate, as a result, today’s numbers aren’t being thrown out onto a level playing field, but instead are being dropped into the conversation, suspect numbers and all, at a moment when people can question the numbers and it comes across very plausible to swing voters who watched on Wednesday that Team Obama would tinker with the stats to take the public’s mind off the debate.

jon1979 on October 5, 2012 at 11:02 AM

/Jedi mind Trick These are not the Obama Chickens that you seek… Some people have said it straight up, others have waffled and others are trying to make believe it is the truth. Anyone with two functional brain cells knows that these new BLS numbers are complete bullshit chickenshit…

SWalker on October 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I prefer to think of them as donkey shit.

Steve Eggleston on October 5, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I forget, was it the Jews or the communists who set fire to the Reichstag?

Yes, it’s that level of lying.

rbj on October 5, 2012 at 11:03 AM

U6 unchanged at 14.7%, while job growth as measured by the BLS is the highest it has been for 30 years. Gee, you really think there’s something odd here, Joe?

Vashta.Nerada on October 5, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Even if the numbers are real – this just makes Obama seem like a crook.

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

This was a major gamble for team O…and they can’t win either way. They have to manipulate the numbers because they are plummeting, but Mitt is being heard now and is more than competent to deliver the message that this is a pathetic lie. Team O loses.

Jackalope on October 5, 2012 at 11:03 AM

I have a suspicion that the seasonal part time holiday work numbers that don’t happen until next month, have been quietly added a month early.

portlandon on October 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Given Walmart and K-Mart started their layaway plans early, you’re onto something.

Steve Eggleston on October 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

“Stinks like Yesterday’s Diapers!”

~Baby Herman

Del Dolemonte on October 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

CNBC questioned the Secretary of Labor about the strange numbers and now Fox News is raising suspicions and going through it. Folks ain’t buying it.

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

It’s falling apart for Zero. As I posted on the other thread I looked at the sites where the report is posted. NO ONE IS BUYING THIS.

dogsoldier on October 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Obama got away with so much lying that he thought he’d try a whopper and he obviously overreached. Now that at least 70 million people are well aware of the election this will be picked apart and the truth will come out.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Thanks for the shout-out, Joe, but, we held a meeting without you and changed the password to the clubhouse. You won’t be getting it.

M240H on October 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I have a suspicion that the seasonal part time holiday work numbers that don’t happen until next month, have been quietly added a month early.

portlandon on October 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Yep.

Cody1991 on October 5, 2012 at 11:05 AM

CNBC questioned the Secretary of Labor about the strange numbers and now Fox News is raising suspicions and going through it. Folks ain’t buying it.

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

It’s falling apart for Zero. As I posted on the other thread I looked at the sites where the report is posted. NO ONE IS BUYING THIS.

dogsoldier on October 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Yeah, Team Barry crumbling and they know it. Plouffe looked like he was bawling his eyes out Wednesday night. :-)

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Sorry Ed the household vs payroll difference doesn’t pass the smell test . Go to the BLS and look at the numbers. The increase attributed to this past month is equal to 32% of the total household increase since Sept 2011. That is for 100 jobs gained in the past year, 32 of them were gained last month. That’s a statistical impossibility.

xkaydet65 on October 5, 2012 at 11:06 AM

If you believe that this 7.8 “just happened”, I have two bridges over the Mississippi River at Memphis to sell you.

kingsjester on October 5, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Here’s why the Household survey is extremely volatile and universally ignored (except when the election of a Democrat is in flames): They ask about 60,000 people whether they’re employed or not and then extrapolate that number to the general population.

The Establishment, or jobs, survey, however, asks about twice that number of businesses, about 120,000 of them, whether or not they’ve added jobs or not from the last month and it’s the same businesses from the month to month that are asked that question.

Hence, the Household survey is a less reliable an indicator on a given month, but if you look at its 3-month rolling average, currently it’s around 150,000, it corresponds better with the reality.

To cherry pick, as they have done here, is blatant electioneering of the worst sort.

TXUS on October 5, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Figures Lie and Liars Figure.

Chip on October 5, 2012 at 10:43 AM

The latest polls tell you exactly why this report is being doctored.

SouthernGent on October 5, 2012 at 10:43 AM

…you think this time guys… it will take 2 MONTHS BEFORE the figures will be “revised” downward…as they have for the last 40 some plus months?

KOOLAID2 on October 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I have a suspicion that the seasonal part time holiday work numbers that don’t happen until next month, have been quietly added a month early.

portlandon on October 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Beat me to it. Or, in fact, it’s started. Store decorations are up by All Saints, the carols are piped in the day after. Retailers need 3 months to make the sales they used to make on Black Friday and a couple of weeks thereafter.

Sort of the way Presidential campaigns now run for 2 years instead of 2 months.

de rigueur on October 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

They counted people who lost their jobs and started their own businesses or are farm based? Self employed are not eligible for unemployment benefits, so why they are included in the same figures I have no clue.

Philly on October 5, 2012 at 11:09 AM

They’re in trouble after the debate and this is the Hail Barry pass.

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Ed, I’m confused as to what you’re saying here. Seems you’re saying there’s no conspiracy then you cite text that the household numbers which are conveniently friendly and helpful to Obamuh would be considered irrelevant to a Republican president. What says conspiracy more? And nothing sums it up better for me than Jack Welch’s tweet. Oh, and let’s not leave out that many of us have been expecting this as we’ve heard Rush predicting it for many months and if you want to pooh-pooh that, then why didn’t the rate come down sooner than a month to the day before the election? It’s a miracle for Obamuh, isn’t it?

Maybe the only positive that could come out of this is that we get off of worshiping this faux phony irrelevant U3 rate which most Americans have no clue how it’s arrived at and start looking at the real and hard numbers and maybe the U6 ascends to take the prominent place of the U3 baloney. The 23 million disenfranchised–a hard and fast number not a screwy rate–is what should be the heart of the Romney/Ryan message that gets hammered home for the next month.

stukinIL4now on October 5, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Figures Lie and Liars Figure.

Chip on October 5, 2012 at 10:43 AM

That’s good.

Speakup on October 5, 2012 at 11:10 AM

The next report just a few days before the election will be interesting. If there was some kind of survey oddity in today’s report the next one might jump back up to 8%.

Mark1971 on October 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Not likely. The U-3 number will jump back up over 8% in the first report after the election.

Finbar on October 5, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Obama got away with so much lying that he thought he’d try a whopper and he obviously overreached. Now that at least 70 million people are well aware of the election this will be picked apart and the truth will come out.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Yes. It’s already coming out. This is so blatant it’s embarrassing and even the LSM can’t swallow it. They know if they even attempt to “explain” the lie everyone will know it IS a lie.

Zero and the clown posse just opened a can of worms.

dogsoldier on October 5, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Benghazi cover-up squirrel. 7.8%!!!!!!!!!11111!!! FAKE NUMBERS!!!!!111!

Jackalope on October 5, 2012 at 11:11 AM

The first president in history to reduce the unemployment rate by driving millions out of the workforce.

And he’s overjoyed because of it!!

faraway on October 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Are they going to report separately the U4 and U5 numbers?

jimver on October 5, 2012 at 11:11 AM

The Department of Labor hired the replacement referees to prepare this month’s job report.

litebrite on October 5, 2012 at 11:11 AM

They’re in trouble after the debate and this is the Hail Barry pass.

Punchenko on October 5, 2012 at 11:09 AM

I like it.

VegasRick on October 5, 2012 at 11:12 AM

We voters are sick of political doublespeak. Its like trying
to read your insurance policy (death panel agenda hidden amongst
the gobblygook).

Enough already.

Amjean on October 5, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I have a suspicion that the seasonal part time holiday work numbers that don’t happen until next month, have been quietly added a month early.

portlandon on October 5, 2012 at 11:01 AM

I think you got it.

That would explain multiple part-timers.

Laid off full-timers working 2-3 part-time seasonal jobs. It comes down to how companies report hiring/layoffs at that point compared to how the workers file their unemployment, because that’s whose in these numbers.

budfox on October 5, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Sounds like “Wag the Dog” to me.

Old Fritz on October 5, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Some one forgot to tell them when you cook the books make sure you don’t over cook them.

Pomai on October 5, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Must be Bush’s fault.

STL_Vet on October 5, 2012 at 11:14 AM

…you think this time guys… it will take 2 MONTHS BEFORE the figures will be “revised” downward…as they have for the last 40 some plus months?

KOOLAID2 on October 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Curious how they will ‘revise’ the million jobs loss as a result of sequestration if it happens…I mean that will take a lot os skillz and mental gym to un-report or under-report :)… And then revise it next month…

jimver on October 5, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Thank goodness moaning joe’s on the case. We can all rest easy now. phew.

Lost in Jersey on October 5, 2012 at 11:15 AM

The Household Survey over counted President Obama’s own part time job 873,000 times.

Varchild on October 5, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Clearly they hired the out-of-work NFL replacement referees to analyze the jobs numbers.

Upon further review…

The rate will increase back to 8.3 in the next two weeks. The broad-industry activity is way down, the manufacturing sector having completed their holiday season build, and new orders are on hold until the start of the year, even in the Asia-Pacific region.

WalMart is planning to hire a record number of seasonal employees for the Christmas season, and others are claiming that’s proof of an upswing. It is the opposite. They have leaned out their store staffing over the last 18 months to the point that they cannot afford to have their stores so poorly staffed for the month between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

The lib media is busy trying to bend spoons with their minds to make bad business news look good.

There is no spoon.

Freelancer on October 5, 2012 at 11:16 AM

James Pethokoukis explains:

Is this the Obama October Surprise?

Only in an era of depressingly diminished expectations could the September jobs report be called a good one. It really isn’t. Not at all.

1. Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs. As the Labor Department noted:

Cody1991 on October 5, 2012 at 10:57 AM

James Pethokoukis has been smoking the Chickenshit… The unemployment rate has fallen to 7.8 percent for one reason all right, but it has nothing to do with the 582,000 part-time jobs and everything in the world to do with the Obamanation Administrations dropping those who are no longer qualified to receive unemployment benefits from the ranks of the unemployed.

The real unemployment rate isn’t the 14.7 percent of the U-6 either.

They are working part-time only because they’ve been unable to find full-time work. This involuntary army of what’s called “underutilized labor” has been hovering for months at about 15% of the workforce. Include the eight million who have simply given up looking, and the real unemployment rate is closer to 19%.

Far to many people are doing everything they can to look and sound like they are reasonable rational people, not to be confused with hyper-partisan hysterical or conspiracy minded individuals. They want to be taken seriously, to be respected, and in so doing they have basically agreed to walk in the royal procession and pretend to carry the naked Emperor’s train…

Well damned it, I’m not afraid of looking like a fool, my name is not Chicken Little, the sky is falling, the wolf is eating the sheep in the field, the unemployment rate really is 19% and damn it the Emperor really doesn’t have any effing cloths on.

SWalker on October 5, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Mika will explain.

ToddPA on October 5, 2012 at 11:16 AM

This will be a trial balloon to see if they get away with it, if it looks like a shit storm then thy will readjust it

Conservative4ev on October 5, 2012 at 11:16 AM

The President jumps on 7.8% in 5.4.3.2.1…

Libs always just double down, no matter how sleazy the lie is.

Speakup on October 5, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Even Gallup has seasonally adjusted rate at 8.1.

jazzmo on October 5, 2012 at 11:18 AM

The President jumps on 7.8% in 5.4.3.2.1…

Libs always just double down, no matter how sleazy the lie is.

Speakup on October 5, 2012 at 11:18 AM

He’s addressing the numbers in Virginia, as we speak…

jimver on October 5, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Hey I think they just made conservative get out the vote enthusiasm dbl

Conservative4ev on October 5, 2012 at 11:19 AM

I figure that FLOTUS told Obama in no uncertain terms that she wants another 4 years in the White House and he’d better make it happen no matter what. There will be even more to come and future lies might even be more brazen than this.

DaveDief on October 5, 2012 at 11:20 AM

The American people know what to believe because they are living the real numbers.
This BIG LIE isn’t going to help the liar in chief!
NO ONE is buying this one except CNN.
The markets are going crazy but they are not walking the street looking for a job.

Delsa on October 5, 2012 at 11:21 AM

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