Scarborough: Something’s awfully odd about this job report

posted at 10:41 am on October 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Yes, there is — but it may not be what people think it is, however.  Joe Scarborough and Willie Geist both express skepticism over the “major tickdown to 7.8 percent” in the unemployment rate from the addition of only 114,000 jobs — which isn’t enough to keep up with population growth.  What happened?  Instead of focusing on that point, Mark Halperin instead points to a tweet from Jack Welch in order to marginalize the question:

Here’s the tweet from Welch:

That’s been retweeted over 1500 times so far, which demonstrates that (a) Welch has a lot of followers on Twitter — over 1.3 million — and (b) more than a few people are puzzled about this jobs report.  Scarborough and Geist are right to express skepticism, but it doesn’t have to be a conspiracy theory to say that the numbers don’t make sense.  CNBC’s senior economics reporter said the same thing in his analysis this morning, too.  If the BLS wanted to tweak the numbers to make Obama look good, though, they would have come up with a better number than +114K overall.

What is the issue, then?  Kevin Hassett reminds us at The Corner that BLS uses two surveys, the Household survey and the Establishments survey, and the +873K number comes from the former while the +114K number comes from the latter.  The media usually reminds readers/viewers that the Household survey is considered less reliable than the Establishments survey … at least during Republican administrations:

Today’s jobs report is a classic. The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall. …

Back when President Bush presided over a jobless recovery, the household survey tended to show better news. At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect. That, of course, is what happens when a Republican is in office. For President Obama, you can expect a household survey lovefest. The AP story that went up at 8:33, of course, emphasized the household survey, even adding, “The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney.” Get ready for more of the same.

Keep an eye on the U-6 measure of unemployment and underemployment, as Chris Cuomo insisted on Twitter this morning. That’s not budging from the 14%-15% range in which it has been for the last three-plus years.

Update: Jim Pethokoukis notes that one doesn’t need a conspiracy theory to show why these numbers don’t work:

Be sure to read his post.

Update II:  Here’s more from RDQ Economics, courtesy of another Jim Pethokoukis post:

This report is a tale of two labor markets.  The establishment survey (payrolls) painted a picture of moderately growing employment over the last three months but at a marginally slower pace than over the last year.  At this pace of job creation, the unemployment rate should be barely drifting lower given underlying demographic trends.  In contrast, the household survey painted a picture of a sharply falling unemployment rate—down 1.2% points over the last 12 months. Such a rapid decline in the unemployment rate would be consistent with 4%–5% real economic growth historically but much of the decline is accounted for by people dropping out of the labor force (over the last year the employment-population ratio has risen to only 58.7% from 58.4%).  We believe part of the drop in the unemployment rate over the last two months is a statistical quirk (the household data show an increase in employment of 873,000 in September, which is completely implausible and likely a result of sampling volatility).  Moreover, declining labor force participation over the last year (resulting in 1.1 million people disappearing from the labor force) accounts for much of the rest of the decline.  With this report, the ISMs, and vehicle sales, the September economy is off to a better-than-expected start but nowhere near as good as suggested by the decline in the unemployment rate.

This is why it’s better to keep an eye on U-6; it has less inherent volatility.


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Air is a pretty big part of your brain, Chris.

Axeman on May 16, 2013 at 9:08 AM

Ironic to constantly see the whitest of men carp about racism in other whites. Hard enough to listen to the Al Sharpton types but I really don’t need Tweety Bird playing the race card.

katiejane on May 16, 2013 at 9:17 AM

Racism is also a black person hating a white person, just saying.

Wagthatdog on May 16, 2013 at 9:25 AM

Why do I have log in every other time I refresh the page or switch to another posting?!

Just me?

tru2tx on May 15, 2013 at 9:46 PM

Nope. The site logs me out all the time, even though I want to remain logged in.

totherightofthem on May 16, 2013 at 9:27 AM

After noting Chrissie’s genealogy, his racial profile, and his intellectual confusion, I must wonder how he ever get’s the silly notion that whites like him are supreme?

Don L on May 16, 2013 at 9:39 AM

You can bet that Chris Mathews doesn’t tolerate any racism in Chevy Chase, MD, where he lives with a 99% all white demographic.

thgrant on May 16, 2013 at 9:42 AM

I’m so sick of hearing these guys blather their personality disorders and fantasies on national TV. I mean, really – what is he saying? Ten to twenty percent of the American population is poisonously racist, and it varies from day to day according to their mood? This is not informed commentary, this is couch talk for a psychiatrist.

dkmonroe on May 16, 2013 at 9:54 AM

This guy is still on the air somewhere?

jake49 on May 16, 2013 at 10:01 AM

The only explanation is that White Trash Chris Matthews thinks that Blacks can’t be anything other than corrupt, so to be anti-corruption is to be anti-Black.

MNHawk on May 16, 2013 at 10:18 AM

The only explanation is that White Trash Chris Matthews thinks that Blacks can’t be anything other than corrupt, so to be anti-corruption is to be anti-Black.

I dunno, corruption seems to be shrugged off and accepted of all liberal politicians because they all stand for the right things in keeping the dems factions loyal while moving the leftist agenda along.

Its more like the liberal view that some whites hate having a half-black president just because he’s black, clean and articulate and the most brilliant president in our nations history. Its obvious that whites just can’t stand those attributes and disliking and opposing him has absolutely nothing to do with his policies, procedures and pompous attitude.

hawkeye54 on May 16, 2013 at 10:35 AM

I was having a convo with some of my black brutha friends yesterday (we get together to goof on Theron-Real Brother0003 – who has a radio show online and just is a total Obama race wh0re0) and we were talking about what would happen if science could ‘cure’ racism. I was reminded of this Booker T Washington quote:

‘There is a class of colored people who make a business of keeping the troubles, the wrongs, and the hardships of the N3gro race before the public. Some of these people do not want the N3gro to lose his grievances, because they do not want to lose their jobs. There is a certain class of race-problem solvers who don’t want the patient to get well.’

Resist We Much on May 15, 2013 at 9:39 PM

Wow. I’ve heard the Booker T quote (circa 1900 — nothing new under the sun) … but the “cure for racism” thought experiment … Wow again. Wow. Everyone should ponder that for a minute. What if science found a cure for racism. Like smallpox — eradicated. It would remove the raison d’etre for hoards of race-hustlers. And more importantly unshackle the minds of millions of blacks who ever wrongly thought they were being held back because some white person didn’t like them because of their skin color.

Paul-Cincy on May 16, 2013 at 10:37 AM

Chris Mathews needs his meds checked.

Paranoimia

MichaelGabriel on May 16, 2013 at 10:52 AM

Chris Mathews needs his meds checked.

Paranoimia

MichaelGabriel on May 16, 2013 at 10:52 AM

Maybe Chris isn’t Close to the Edit.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on May 16, 2013 at 11:01 AM

This person is the most despicable, the most hateful, the most contempt-filled, and the most Dishonest PERSON ALIVE

williamg on May 16, 2013 at 11:06 AM

Wait – isn’t Chrissie kind old, and very, very white?

mojo on May 16, 2013 at 11:18 AM

You can bet that Chris Mathews doesn’t tolerate any racism in Chevy Chase, MD, where he lives with a 99% all white demographic.

thgrant on May 16, 2013 at 9:42 AM

Him and practically every other famous/influential libtard.

Living with crack dealers on every street corner, muggers lurking on every OTHER street corner, and beat-the-attitude-outta-me punk gangs roving the city with Uzis is for little people.

MelonCollie on May 16, 2013 at 11:34 AM

Wait – isn’t Chrissie kind old, and very, very white?

mojo on May 16, 2013 at 11:18 AM

and very, very racist. But hey, we’re holding him, like the rest of the this Alinsky progressive group to a standard they themselves reject and despise. Ethics and morals are only a one sided blade to attack others with for this horrific band.
They don’t abide by it so you can’t hurt them with it, except to expose their lies to public light. Chrissie, Barky, Holder only regret getting caught and the american people, the most tolerant people ever to walk this earth, are growing very, very tired of the Laraza card being thrown in their face over and over.
Chris Mathews is a pig.

onomo on May 16, 2013 at 11:43 AM

Well to be fair…. when you are sooooo in bed with the historical party of slavery, segregation and racism, you start thinking that everyone else thinks about being racist too! Tool-man Tingles just can’t see his own racism.

dominigan on May 16, 2013 at 12:17 PM

So wait… Tool-man Tingles, who supports the Democratic Party, who helped start the KKK, and until a few years ago had a Grand Kleagle in the House, is now worried about white supremacy… Yeah right…

dominigan on May 16, 2013 at 12:23 PM

Matthews will never live down the “tingle up the leg” ridiculousness, so he’s doubling down, defending his judgment that Obama was the Second Coming. He simply cannot admit that he was dumb enough to fall for the Obamascam.

RebeccaH on May 16, 2013 at 12:38 PM

So wait… Tool-man Tingles, who supports the Democratic Party, who helped start the KKK, and until a few years ago had a Grand Kleagle in the House, is now worried about white supremacy… Yeah right…

dominigan on May 16, 2013 at 12:23 PM

Yes. From the progressive party quick to accuse those they steal from of stealing, accuse those they politicize of politicizing, unleash death panels and Planned Parenthood on those they accuse of trying to kill children and old people.
Heinous but like terrorism effective. Chrissie T is just a byproduct, he is an Alinskyite Elegant’e. In pull ups.

onomo on May 16, 2013 at 12:41 PM

I know I’ve said this at least 100 times, and I am sure there are exceptions out there, but…

The only people I ever hear discussing Obama’s skin color are people on the left. Odd, that.

Chris of Rights on May 16, 2013 at 12:52 PM

Hold on to that thought, Tingles; someone will be by shortly to wipe the drool from you chin.

Another Drew on May 16, 2013 at 1:25 PM

…from your chin.

Another Drew on May 16, 2013 at 1:26 PM

Racism is also a black person hating a white person, just saying.

Wagthatdog on May 16, 2013 at 9:25 AM

Or an Asian person hating a Hispanic person…but many on the Left only see racism thru one prism-whites against blacks.

Hmmmm…

White Family (Including 14-Year-Old Daughter) Reportedly Attacked for Being in the ‘Wrong Neighborhood’ of Baton Rouge

A white family getting gas in Baton Rouge, La., was attacked by three people who said the family was in the “wrong neighborhood,” police say.

The altercation occurred Sunday night at a Chevron gas station.

WAFB-TV provides the shocking details:

[Cpl. Tommy Stubbs, a spokesman for the Baton Rouge Police Department] said a man wearing a pink shirt was in line trying to pay for gas when Donald Dickerson, 41, started making fun of him, leading to an argument.

“The defendant (Dickerson) approached the white male victim,” the police report stated.

It went on to read, “the defendant told him he was in the wrong neighborhood and he was not going to make it out.” The victim said that’s when he “was punched and knocked to the ground.”

It went downhill from there, with the wife and teenage daughter also being assaulted.

WAFB-TV reports that while the father suffered “a broken eye socket, broken nose, and several lacerations to the face,” only Dickerson was arrested and charged with second-degree battery.

The two other alleged attackers — 24-year-old Devin Bessye and 22-year-old Ashley Simmons — received a summons for simple battery, but were never even taken to the police station.

All three have had prior run-ins with the law.

Reports indicate the attack has not yet been categorized as a hate crime, but it remains under investigation.

Del Dolemonte on May 16, 2013 at 2:04 PM

This person is the most despicable, the most hateful, the most contempt-filled, and the most Dishonest PERSON ALIVE

williamg on May 16, 2013 at 11:06 AM

No, he’s not. He comes in a distant eleventyith behind Obutthead, Holder, Pelosi, Reid,…….

NOMOBO on May 16, 2013 at 2:12 PM

While we are in the mood to rid ourselves of comtemptible people, let’s put Chrissy on the list. He is just a clown at this point.

francesca on May 16, 2013 at 3:01 PM

contemptible

francesca on May 16, 2013 at 3:01 PM

What does Chris bring to the issues?

StevC on May 16, 2013 at 4:22 PM

I wonder who shaves Matthews. He certainly can’t look at himself in the mirror.

flataffect on May 16, 2013 at 4:53 PM

Chris Matthews has got to be the biggest bigot ever spawned. He is obsessed with race and always points at everyone else. Make no mistake, he is the extreme bigot.

saiga on May 17, 2013 at 12:31 PM

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