Romney polling bounce from debate?

posted at 1:21 pm on October 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Did Mitt Romney score a debate bounce in polling?  Two separate pollsters show Romney improving in key swing states after Barack Obama’s debacle on Wednesday evening.  First, We Ask America surveyed 1200 likely voters in three key swing states, and found Romney slightly ahead in all three:

Note the sample splits.  Obama supporters will have issues with the R+5 in Florida and the R+2 in Virginia. In 2008, Florida was D+3 and Virginia D+6, and in 2010, Florida was R+1 (Virginia didn’t have a statewide race for exit polling in 2010).  However, that Ohio sample has a D+4, almost precisely between 2008′s D+8 and 2010′s R+1.  An incumbent at 46% is in deep trouble with less than five weeks to go before the election, and this looks like a significant shift from earlier polling that had Obama in the lead outside the margin of error.

Rasmussen hasn’t detected any movement in either Ohio and Virginia yet in two polls today.  First up is Virginia:

Virginia remains a nail-biter in the first post-debate survey of the key battleground state, with Mitt Romney edging slightly ahead.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters, taken last night, shows Romney earning 49% support to Obama’s 48%. Three percent (3%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Three weeks ago, it was Obama 49%, Romney 48%, highlighting the closeness of the contest in the state. In August, the two were tied at 47% each. Since April, Romney has consistently earned 45% to 49% support in Virginia, while Obama has picked up 44% to 49% of the vote.

That’s basically the status quo.  If there is any bounce in the state, it’s within the MoE, at least for now.  What about Ohio?  Not much movement either, but Obama’s support seems to be softening:

The critical battleground state of Ohio remains a draw, with President Obama holding a one-point lead in the first post-debate survey of the contest there.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters, taken last night, finds Obama with 50% support to Mitt Romney’s 49%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording,click here.)

Ninety percent (90%) of Romney supporters are certain they will vote for him and not change their mind. Only 80% of Obama supporters are that certain. …

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Ohio voters trust Romney more than the president when it comes to handling the economy. Forty-five percent (45%) trust the president.

As for national security, 48% now trust Romney more to handle it, while just as many (47%) trust the president more. But last month, Obama had a five-point edge in trust – 49% to 45% – in this area.

Fifty percent (50%) think the economy will get better if Romney is elected and Republicans take control of the Congress. Forty-one percent (41%) believe that to be true if Obama is reelected and Democrats are in charge of Congress.

However, Paul Bedard at the Washington Examiner finds good news for Romney in the cross-tabs:

Overall, the race is deadlocked with Obama over Romney 50 percent to 49 percent, according to the poll taken Thursday night.

But among the stunning 92 percent of all voters in the state who say that they are certain to go to the polls on Election Day, Romney leads 51 percent to 48 percent. And among the 83 percent who have already made up their minds how they will vote, Romney is ahead 52 percent to 48 percent.

It will take a few days for the impact of the debate to resonate through the polling, I think, although the WAA numbers are certainly a bright spot for Team Romney.  How will Team Obama react to the debate debacle, especially if the polls begin to show a shift?  Fox News analyst Peter Johnson says to expect more character attacks:


 

 The Obama campaign and its surrogates have claimed Mitt Romney’s apparent victory was based on faulty claims and outright lies. Former VP Al Gore has even said that he believes the high altitude in Denver affected the president, who only arrived in the area a few hours beforehand.

Johnson Jr. says Democrats are trying to convince voters they “didn’t really see” what they thought they saw on Wednesday night in Denver, presenting “one excuse after another.” He predicts the left will launch a wave of attacks against Romney in the coming days and weeks.

“We’re going to see, I believe, the hugest campaign of character assassination in American history that’s going to go forward. And I also predict it’s going to backfire,” said Johnson.

Have they actually stopped using this tactic?  They’re not talking about a second-term agenda; all they’re talking about is how bad Romney will be for America as President.  They have focused more lately on his tax plan, misrepresenting it as a massive middle-class tax hike, but that didn’t work for Obama in the debate when Romney was on stage to answer that attack.  Nor did the character attacks work particularly well as a knock-out blow to Romney over the summer, when Team Obama dominated the airwaves with those attack ads.  Now that voters have seen Romney on stage with Obama and looking at least as presidential as the incumbent, if not more so, Johnson’s right — those attacks are likely to backfire.


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Comment pages: 1 2

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 1:39 PM

you are persistent. the question is why? we are a conservative website.

we don’t believe you.

why not post at Salon, or daily beast.

gerrym51 on October 5, 2012 at 2:29 PM

I wonder if Pookey will be voting this year?

MobileVideoEngineer on October 5, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Beat me to it by less than a minute, I guess :)…

jimver on October 5, 2012 at 2:29 PM

The ‘analysts’ all wrong. Woodward will be proven right. A way more damning piece of Obama stupidity will come out soon, way more damaging, and he knew about it on the night of the debate.

Obama, Axelrod and Cutter have looked/acted ashen ever since the night ahead of the debate. It c/b that the Rev. Wright will throw Obama under the bus, or some such.

Schadenfreude on October 5, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Romney now says he was “completely wrong” about the 47%. Does Mr. Etch-a Sketch really think he can take that one off the table that easily?

And all of the Hot Air posters who defended him have been left looking stupid by yet another Mitt FlipFlop.

chumpThreads on October 5, 2012 at 3:23 PM

BTW, Gallup uses a 7 day polling average, meaning that it will take until Monday or Tuesday to see any noticeable bounce.

midgeorgian

And Rasmussen has also stated yesterday that the bounce won’t start showing until Sunday, if there is one.

xblade on October 5, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Romney now says he was “completely wrong” about the 47%. Does Mr. Etch-a Sketch really think he can take that one off the table that easily?

And all of the Hot Air posters who defended him have been left looking stupid by yet another Mitt FlipFlop.

chumpThreads on October 5, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Nobody cares, the moochers andbthe welfare queens of the 47% would vote for obama anyways,…the honest ones of them who happen to be in that percentage for no fault of their own and only temporarily know what romney meant and they and they will vote for romney regardless…so, spare us and keep your non-commentsto yourself, the 47% was such a nothinburger that even the boy king didn’t bother to bring it during the debate…maybe he remembered his own ‘bitter clingers’ remark 4 year ago, who knows….

jimver on October 5, 2012 at 4:17 PM

“So, how about it Dell?

Romney wins and I leave. Obama wins and you leave?

daveyandgoliath on October 5, 2012 at 1:36 PM

Unlike you, I’ve been here for a while.

Now go find us some more new online polls to laugh at.

Del Dolemonte on October 5, 2012 at 2:20 PM”

So you think Obama’s going to win, too.

Fair enough.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 4:31 PM

It’s time for Gary Johnson to endorse Mitt.

Fleuries on October 5, 2012 at 4:33 PM

With Gallup having a 7 day polling cycle ,I would think the fact Obama is up one point from yesterday means there couldn’t be a huge Romney bounce the first day … then again I am not a polls expert

U2denver on October 5, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Romney now says he was “completely wrong” about the 47%. Does Mr. Etch-a Sketch really think he can take that one off the table that easily?

sure. you didn’t build that

gerrym51 on October 5, 2012 at 5:39 PM

In Ohio, among the stunning 92 percent of likely voters in the state who say that they are certain to go to the polls on Election Day, Romney leads 51 percent to 48 percent. And among the 83 percent who have already made up their minds how they will vote, Romney is ahead of Obama 52 percent to 48 percent.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-poll-romney-leads-51-48-among-those-certain-to-vote/article/2509947#.UG9Zto5ECQI

Ohio voters are clearly going for Romney

Ohio shocker: GOP closes early voting gap, boosting Romney

In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/ohio-shocker-gop-closes-early-voting-gap-boosting-romney/article/2509838

mountainaires on October 5, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Romney now says he was “completely wrong” about the 47%. Does Mr. Etch-a Sketch really think he can take that one off the table that easily?

And all of the Hot Air posters who defended him have been left looking stupid by yet another Mitt FlipFlop.

chumpThreads on October 5, 2012 at 3:23 PM

My understanding was the gist of the 47% quote was Romany wasn’t going to try to convince the 47% of Americans who don’t pay taxes to vote for him by pointing out he will lower their tax rate. Did he change his position on this issue? He is going to try to convince people who don’t pay income tax to vote for him by telling them he will lower their taxes?

That sounds like Obama’s made up “Romney $5 trillion tax cut” platform.

Please show a link to Romney or a spokesperson saying they’re going to work that campaign angle, or we’ll know you’re repeating Obama lies.

talkingpoints on October 5, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Since there were several mentions of Missouri on this thread I thot I’d post this:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Missouri Voters, taken just before Wednesday night’s first presidential debate, shows Romney with 49% support to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Election 2012: Missouri President

Missouri: Romney 49%, Obama 46% Thursday, October 04, 2012

This Poll was taken BEFORE the first Presidential Debate of 10/3/12 in Denver, CO.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/missouri/election_2012_missouri_president

bluefox on October 5, 2012 at 8:21 PM

So you think Obama’s going to win, too.

Fair enough.

gumbyandpokey on October 5, 2012 at 4:31 PM

No, he just knows not to make deals with malicious liars.

And that’s all you are, gumbyandpokey. You have already admitted that you are a malicious liar. You’ve been shown repeatedly to be a malicious liar.

You are the typical Obama supporter, hell-bent on exploiting the decency of others. And on the day after the election, when you go screaming into the street, people will know.

People will know you were one of Obama’s malicious liars.

People will know you call them all racists.

You’re pretty much doomed without the welfare check, gumbyandpokey, which is why you lie for Obama.

That ends now.

northdallasthirty on October 5, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Romney must win Florida and Ohio. If Obama takes either of these states it is almost impossible for Romney to get to 270 electoral votes. If Romney can take Virgina as well then he will most likely win because he will only need 1 more swing state (even New Hampshire’s 4 EVs would be enough). I think these 3 states are the key states to watch.

Dollayo on October 6, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Rasmussen now has Romney up 2 Nationally.

Lord of the Wings on October 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Why is Hot Air so obsessed with polling? Simple laziness?

minnesoter on October 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Comment pages: 1 2