Reuters tracking poll: Romney gains four points on Obama in two days after debate

posted at 8:36 pm on October 5, 2012 by Allahpundit

Like Ed said this morning, you’ll have to wait a few more days for public reaction to be fully priced in.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t end a very good week on a hopeful note.

President Barack Obama’s lead over challenger Mitt Romney has narrowed to just two percentage points since the Republican’s strong performance in their first debate, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday.

In more bad news for Obama, one in five voters said the Democrat’s performance in the contest in Denver on Wednesday made them feel more negative about him and almost a third said they felt more positive about his Republican challenger…

Obama had led Romney by 6 percentage points in the poll released on Wednesday and the edge narrowed to five points – a 48-43 percent lead for Obama – in polling up to Thursday. That was the first including a day of interviews after the meeting in Denver…

More than 9 out of 10 registered voters – 91 percent – said they had seen, heard or read something about the debate, and 54 percent said they thought Romney had done a better job.

He gained three points in just the past 24 hours, in other words, as the news of Wednesday’s win rippled through the electorate. Rasmussen also saw some positive movement last night but says it’ll be Sunday before we know f it’s more than noise. The eeyorish take on all this is that it’s just a bounce, much like O’s post-convention surge, and will be tamped down in due time by today’s, ahem, “good” jobs report, the next debate, etc. The optimistic take — which I share in this case — is that Romney fundamentally changed public perceptions of himself by dominating a sitting president on national TV. The media’s pre-debate portrayal of him as essentially a lost cause was a real threat, especially since big-money donors were nearing the point of deciding whether to give up on the presidency and contribute to congressional races instead. All that’s changed now. Doesn’t mean he’ll be in the lead next week, but he did exactly what he needed to do to give himself a shot at victory.

Now then. Want to see a brutal political ad? Behold the power of silence.


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“The 7.8% number will have NO EFFECT on polling at all. If anything it will hurt Obama.

Republicans are pissed off at the fake number. Independents don’t believe it and it will make Democrat voters complacent. 80% of the comments I am hearing about this number is that it makes no sense.

mitchellvii on October 6, 2012 at 10:15 AM”

100% incorrect.

The average voter will be impressed with the number and those people win or lose elections.

gumbyandpokey on October 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

One thing to keep in mind. Obama still has to debate Mitt Romney 2 more times.

Obama is NOT and never has been a good debater. He won’t suddenly become one. This will only get worse for Obama from here. All America was looking for was an excuse to vote for Romney. They now have it.

**P.S., HUGE fundraising scandal for Obama breaking on Monday.

mitchellvii on October 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

@gumbyandpokey

The average voter is living in the middle of the Obama Economy and will believe what they see and hear over what Obama tells them.

Besides, you are aware that 7.8% is a HORRIBLE HORRIBLE HORRIBLE number, right? The very fact Dems are proud of it speaks volumes. What 7.8% says is that after 4 years and $6 trillion in new spending, Obama has accomplished exactly nothing.

Besides, the idea that the Private Sector created 873,000 jobs with a 1.5 GDP is laughable. Mathematically impossible. However, McDonalds is thrilled.

mitchellvii on October 6, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Wow, a realistic post here!

gumbyandpokey on October 6, 2012 at 10:09 AM

And obviously it did not come from you.

milcus on October 6, 2012 at 10:25 AM

The 8% barrier was meaningless straw man put forth by the MSM. The idea was that if we somehow could get under 8% happy days were here again.

BS.

The real number is that we created only 114,000 new jobs. That is HORRIBLE.

That’s like Obama spending $6 trillion on renovations to your house just so it could look exactly like it did the day he moved in 4 years ago. That’s one hell of a pricey paint job!

mitchellvii on October 6, 2012 at 10:25 AM

BTW what was your prediction about Scott Walker ?

Do tell. I will wait.

CW on October 5, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Uhh..PokedinmyGummy???

People are still waiting.

BigWyo on October 6, 2012 at 10:25 AM

The average voter is living in the middle of the Obama Economy and will believe what they see and hear over what Obama tells them.

Besides, you are aware that 7.8% is a HORRIBLE HORRIBLE HORRIBLE number, right? The very fact Dems are proud of it speaks volumes. What 7.8% says is that after 4 years and $6 trillion in new spending, Obama has accomplished exactly nothing.

Besides, the idea that the Private Sector created 873,000 jobs with a 1.5 GDP is laughable. Mathematically impossible. However, McDonalds is thrilled.

mitchellvii on October 6, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Correct. The sharia media has got to be utterly flummoxed that this “good news” for Zero is hitting with such a thud. No one is buying it. They’re insulted. And that means voters no longer trust Zero, and increasingly, they don’t much like him either. He’s in free fall.

Rational Thought on October 6, 2012 at 10:27 AM

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

BTW, before anybody gets too excited, Rasmussen still has Obama with a 50% approval rating, and if you are at that level on election day, you win.

gumbyandpokey on October 6, 2012 at 10:11 AM

I just looked and Obama is tanking. -13 He’s under water.

FTA:

Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 28% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -13 (see trends).

dogsoldier on October 6, 2012 at 10:34 AM

@gumbyandpokey

The average voter is living in the middle of the Obama Economy and will believe what they see and hear over what Obama tells them.

Besides, you are aware that 7.8% is a HORRIBLE HORRIBLE HORRIBLE number, right? The very fact Dems are proud of it speaks volumes. What 7.8% says is that after 4 years and $6 trillion in new spending, Obama has accomplished exactly nothing.

Besides, the idea that the Private Sector created 873,000 jobs with a 1.5 GDP is laughable. Mathematically impossible. However, McDonalds is thrilled.

mitchellvii on October 6, 2012 at 10:21 AM

You are 100% correct. Over 90% of the jobs being created are low-paying and/or part-time jobs. That is what Gumby doesn’t get. If you were working a comfortable 40k a year job (that is still low, but that’s a different point), lost your job, and have been forced to work a part-time job for 8.50 an hour, you are not praising Obama at the site of 7.8.

And 8.50 an hour equals 68 dollars a day, or 680 every pay period. When taxes are taken out, thats about 600 dollars. When you subtract gas (@4 dollars a gallon, or twice as much as 4 years ago), groceries (@1.5 times higher than Obama took office), insurance costs (over 2,000 higher than before Obamacare, on average), and mortgage payments (for houses that are underwater), you can see why people are not lining up to put Obama yard signs on their lawns (which they cant afford anymore), and Obama bumper stickers on their cars (which they are behind on payments for).

The fact that about 15% of the country is either not working or living the life that I just described simply doesn’t cause excitement over 7.8, when Obama said that the number should be under 6% at this point.

No matter how you spin it, that is hard to overcome. And when you insult people’s intelligence and tell them that the economy is improving, when it is clearly not, the polls will not reflect the excitement that people at MSNBC and the NYT (with their secure jobs that pay well) are feeling.

milcus on October 6, 2012 at 10:40 AM

While Im glad it looks like Romney made an impact from the debate, I still struggle to think there are so many people out there on the fence, going back and forth constantly. Obama, Romney, Obama, Romney…..

Just who are these people? Ive never met one. There is a clear difference between these two men, one if for big government, the other is not. So how in the hell can you be undecided or go back and forth?

Polls would make much more sense if they didnt change much or if you polled the same large number of people each time, to see if people really do change their minds often.

bucsox79 on October 6, 2012 at 10:45 AM

The 8% barrier was meaningless straw man put forth by the MSM. The idea was that if we somehow could get under 8% happy days were here again.

mitchellvii on October 6, 2012 at 10:25 AM

They came up with 8% because they wanted to elevate the bar. The fact is that no president has won re-election with unemployment over 7%. So, to not talk about that, they changed the bar to 8% with no basis on history.

It’s kind of like every other figure which the media changes to help Obama. Remember how independents were going to decide this race? Well, now that Obama is losing independents in almost every poll, do you hear anyone in the media fawning over them? No.

Or, how about the talk about only 1 debate mattering? Remember that talk from early last week? Now, that Obama was destroyed in the 1st debate, the theme is becoming, “well, lets see how the other 2 debates play out.”

It’s just non-stop media spin to keep lowering the bar, so Obama can look competitive.

milcus on October 6, 2012 at 10:45 AM

So let me get this straight.Call 60000 households and you get 800000 plus new jobs.Lets just call 240000 households this month and we will be back at 5% unemployment rate by Christmas .WOW happy days are here!!!The next time we go into a recession just call a million households and just like magic poof we are out of the recession.(Sick munt ugo i koutknot spall ecnomist nall i are one)

logman1 on October 6, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Nice bounce. A little bigger than expected, but that was a thorough beating in Denver and seen by 70 million people. When everything was said & done, the only people who didn’t hear about that trouncing, lives in North Korea! The chicago thug machine will make the bounce disappear, if the surrogates don’t start fighting back and getting after the Failure-in-chief!
Final Update for those following:How to take on the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 6, 2012 at 11:01 AM

“The 7.8% number will have NO EFFECT on polling at all. If anything it will hurt Obama.

Republicans are pissed off at the fake number. Independents don’t believe it and it will make Democrat voters complacent. 80% of the comments I am hearing about this number is that it makes no sense.

mitchellvii on October 6, 2012 at 10:15 AM”

100% incorrect.

The average voter will be impressed with the number and those people win or lose elections.

gumbyandpokey on October 6, 2012 at 10:17 AM

and what fhe heck do you even know about the average voter, troll? Living in a bubble and in your momma’s basement, insulated from reality doesn’t give you the correct indight into how the average voter feels about it and how will react to it…besides if yor insight is as correct as this one: ‘walker is a goner’ :), then keep it, we have no use for it…you made enough of a fool of yourself on this forum with your wacky predictions, don’t you think it’s time to take a break already, no need to subject yourself to more humiliation and ridicule…

jimver on October 6, 2012 at 11:04 AM

In 2008 there were tons of Obama signs out in my neighborhood, this year I haven’t seen any, but I’ve seen quite a few Romney signs and signs for Republicans running in state or local races. And my favorite is the man who put out an empty chair (one of those camp chairs) with a laminated sign quoting from Clinton’s empty chair speech and a small American flag. I’m sure there are still some Obama supporters around but they’re being very quiet this time around.

On the other hand, there’s a low income minority neighborhood I drive through and still lots of Obama signs there.

toby11 on October 6, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Sorry, meant “Clint’s” empty chair speech … preview only works if you read it.

toby11 on October 6, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Sorry, meant “Clint’s” empty chair speech … preview only works if you read it.

toby11 on October 6, 2012 at 11:21 AM

:) am sure Clinton himself agrees with Clint visual metaphor, but he has to kiss the ring for Hillary’s sake and keep quiet….

jimver on October 6, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Also, are you going to guarantee Mitt will…for sure…no doubt, the way you did with McCain/Palin in 2008? Just asking. – tbarleycorn on October 6, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Actually, I predict with absolute certainty that Obama will prevail by a razor-thin margin – thanks to vote fraud.

ManlyRash on October 6, 2012 at 12:51 PM

The Dems are going wild with this number. So–we are supposed to believe that in 30 days the economy has improved more than it has in one month in almost 30 years? Right. AND with the same amount of jobs “created” as last month, we have gone down 6%? I gotta a lake lot in Arizona for you…..

I am sure the faithful believe it tho.

AnnaS on October 6, 2012 at 1:18 PM

P.S. Oh but he has raised 181 million in one month! From where did all this enthusiasm for such an empty chair come?

AnnaS on October 6, 2012 at 1:19 PM

LIVING WILL FORM

I, ____________, being of sound mind and body, do not wish to be kept alive indefinitely by artificial means. Under no circumstances should my fate be put in the hands of pinhead partisan politicians who couldn’t pass ninth-grade biology if their lives depended on it, or lawyers/doctors/hospitals interested in simply running up the bills.

If after a reasonable amount of time passes, and I fail to ask for: (Check appropriate items): a Martini ______, a Margarita ______, a Scotch and soda ______, a Bloody Mary______, a beer ______, a Gin and Tonic _______, a Glass of Chardonnay ______, a Steak ______, Lobster or crab legs ______, the TV remote control ______, a bowl of ice cream ______, the sports page______, Sex______, or Chocolate_______, it should be presumed that I won’t ever get any better. When such a determination is reached, I hereby instruct my appointed person and attending physicians to pull the plug, reel in the tubes, and call it a day. At this point, it is time to call the New Orleans Jazz Funeral Band to come and do their thing at my funeral, and ask all of my friends to raise their glasses to toast the good times we have had.

Signature:________________________Date:__________

P.S. I hear that in Ireland there is a Nursing Home with a Pub. The patients are happier, and they have a lot more visitors. Some of them don’t even need embalming when their time comes. If anyone knows the name of this happy place, PLEASE pass it on.

Amendment #1:
Should I become incapacitated as described above, DO NOT PULL THE PLUG until after I have voted against Barack Obama by absentee ballot in the November 2012 election.

Schadenfreude on October 6, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Obama was reading from his TOTUS after the desastrous debate.

Credit goes to Jon Favreau. He leads the WH speechwriting team.

Without Favreau’s writings and the TOTUS, Obama is lost.

Schadenfreude on October 6, 2012 at 2:58 PM

This is entertaining watching the lil’ green rubber toy get its azz kicked. I wonder if it will show up after Obama gets trounced in November?

Decoski on October 6, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Great read

Schadenfreude on October 6, 2012 at 6:43 PM

I borrowed this from another site:

It’s really funny to me. I knew Mitt for years and didn’t know he was a Mormon. He was just so cool about things, I didn’t notice he didn’t drink coffee, but he certainly had no problem when I had a cup. I also smoke and once asked him if it bothered him when I smoked in the office and he merely said, “No, it’s your office,” that was enough for me to hold it down. I soon found myself so engrossed in conversation I forgot about not smoking. Mitt is an extremely warm and engaging man and one would have to be stupid not to see his rational and analytical mind at work. After knowing Mitt, I found out my next door neighbor was also a Mormon, I had a good relationship with my neighbors and had been invited for dinner, they just did not serve liquor, wine or beer and no coffee for dessert. A few years later, my son brought home a girl from Salt Lake City, who was not Mormon, but had many Mormon friends. They were married in Salt Lake City (or nearby) and I had the opportunity to tour the Mormon Temple and the surrounding site. My son’s father-in-law, also not Mormon, had many Mormon employees and even more Mormon customers. His attitude was there were no more honest people and if he granted them credit, (which was rare it was requested) he knew he would be paid. That family business was recently sold, but it was three generations old. I think what the author was trying to point out most of all is that Mormons are Americans just like any other patriotic American, with a good work ethic, be it in education or the workforce and are indistinguishable from any other American with a similar work ethic.

Bambi on October 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Actually, I predict with absolute certainty that Obama will prevail by a razor-thin margin – thanks to vote fraud.

ManlyRash on October 6, 2012 at 12:51 PM

I fervently pray you are wrong in your prediction, and if you are, that you’ll choose to remain a regular presence here at HotAir. I’m confident I speak on behalf of nearly everyone here.

As for my own prediction…yes, there’s going to be some vote fraud. AND….it’s not going to be enough to save Obama from going down to defeat. R & R will go a solid 4 for 4 in the debates, creating a rolling snowball effect among the undecideds, and the power of praying and fasting among us who can’t stomach the idea of America separated by tyranny of the state from God, will together make the difference in favor of Romney.

Sir Rants-A-Lot on October 6, 2012 at 9:42 PM

The optimistic take — which I share in this case — is that Romney fundamentally changed public perceptions of himself by dominating a sitting president on national TV

From what I am getting from Blue voters, the big negative was on Obama, for not defending their side well. He lost something bigger than the debate, he lost their confidence. Romney gained with the right-center because he showed himself to also be compassionate

Promising that the next debate will be better is like promising your parents that next time the new boyfriend will not pick his nose. Maybe he wont but what about the week after?

The Obama gang was stupid to float the bogus jobs numbers. Most people have stopped paying attention, except for wonks, but of those who heard jobs are going up, it had the same bad aura as Bush SR when he stated the economy was not that bad. It was bad then for middle America and it is terrible job wise today for everyone except political appointees. The seasonal temp jobs are mainly part time /no promises and everyone knows someone stuck in unemployed purgatory

Ths MSM pretends gas prices are merely high, when in fact they are deathly high as in killing the ability to survive. This lie only works on fools, and a cornered man is smart enough to know he doesnt have a good thing going.

What I saw evolving out of the debate was a dislike for Obama in the blue middle. Whatever he promises in the next debate will be a sour pill, because trust is gone

entagor on October 8, 2012 at 12:17 AM

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