WSJ/NBC poll: Yep, this race is statistically tied; Update: Tied at 47 in new National Journal poll too

posted at 8:02 pm on October 2, 2012 by Allahpundit

An hors d’oeuvre to whet your appetite for tomorrow night’s debate. Three different national polls released yesterday also showed the race within the margin of error, so yes, Romney’s very much within striking distance. In fact:

The sample of *registered* voters is 45D/39R/14I; figure that the sample of likelies is another two or three points more Republican and that’s not a half bad estimate of election-day turnout. (Both Scott Rasmussen and Romney’s pollster Neil Newhouse are expecting something on the order of D+3.) More from NBC:

Obama edges Romney by three points among likely voters, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Obama’s lead was five points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, following the political conventions…

[A]mong voters expressing the highest interest in the election, Obama and Romney are essentially tied (49 percent to 48 percent).

And two key pillars of Obama’s political coalition – Latinos and young voters – are much less interested in the election than they were in 2008…

Given the increased economic optimism, Obama and Romney are nearly tied on which candidate would better handle the economy, with 45 percent picking Romney and 42 percent choosing Obama.

I’m not so sure that the uptick lately in O’s numbers on the economy is due to any bona fide optimism. NBC says they’re seeing movement among Republicans and indies too, but most of it is coming from Democrats. That’s no surprise: The closer we get to election day, the more people’s views of O’s performance will be colored by their preference for him or against him. Democrats are getting their game faces on, so it’s time to convince themselves that things are much rosier than they actually are. Note the sharp increase starting in August as casual Democratic partisans started coming home:

They had to tell themselves that the economy’s improving in order to justify voting Democratic, so that’s what they’re telling themselves. I think you’re seeing the same thing happen with this result, which is a disgrace:

Under normal circumstances, i.e. without an era-defining presidential election looming five weeks from now, I think you’d see something there on the order of 35/55. As it is, Democrats need to circle the wagons and pretend like the Foreign Policy President wasn’t (a) inexcusably negligent about Chris Stevens’s security in Benghazi and (b) a shameless liar about whether the attack was planned or spontaneous afterward.

Update: Dead heat.

Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.

In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.

The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.

All even — with a D+7 sample? Oh my.

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I keep seeing some optimism-albeit of the guarded kind- from someone claiming to be AP. Still not sure who it really is.

Physics Geek on October 3, 2012 at 8:26 AM

Gee, how can anyone trust those poll numbers? Aren’t they skewed?

chumpThreads on October 3, 2012 at 8:19 AM

9.9 out of every 10 “polls” out there are being conducted by news organizations that want O’bamna to win, and 2 of them are in fact being done by Democrat newspapers that endorsed Him in 2008 and will do so again this time.

Why is that simple fact so hard for you Leftists to fathom?

Del Dolemonte on October 3, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I am just glad that the troll Gumbypokeme taught us all yesteday one crucially important lesson:

And that is the reason the President will win a crushing victory is because he is in the 49-50 range in all the polls-

while Jimmy Carter was only in the 46-47 range.

Obviously, Chicago and the Axelrod astroturf operation are functioning well on all cylinders this morning!!

AirForceCane on October 3, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Romney…every policy we oppose in Barack Obama; except he’s a Republican!

dom89031 on October 3, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Don’t believe any polls.

They have to bring it back down to even in their massaging so that they can massage a “bounce” for Barack after the debate.

PastorJon on October 3, 2012 at 12:47 PM

dom89031 on October 3, 2012 at 12:12 PM

and it must equally chafe you to no end knowing that there is finally a man of decent character– role model citizen- hero – that you can vote for.

If you knew his whole story, not the media’s version, you would understand.

Mitt will make you want to be a better man.
You are just conflicted with that.

FlaMurph on October 3, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Del – the dem sympathizers are in complete panic mode – it is slipping through their fingers. All the lies are exposed. This will be delicious.

There is aways the last minute thing that can pop up – but absent that Romney has to be pretty happy where he is – and advertising in LA. He knows something.

Zomcon JEM on October 2, 2012 at 9:12 PM

I’m an optimist, but advertising in LA seems like a waste of good money. Are you sure about this? Link?

CableDude on October 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Did anyone else get the email from the Tea Party that said this? does anyone know about this?

They were curious about the media poll reporting and claim to have tried polling themselves:

We hired a nonpartisan polling company out of Utah, telling them that we did not want numbers that are skewed one way or the other. We want to know what the voters really think and guess what? Our poll shows Nevada voters favor Romney 51.8% to Obama 42.5%!

I find it easy to believe the media is skewing polls, and they are skewing every headline in the news, and then they feature republicans who crack and cave and say “Oh Romney can’t be saved” but a lot of people don’t know.

And there are a lot of people who just want to vote for the person who can dance with Beyonce, the celebrity MTV president. Sick.

Fleuries on October 3, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Obviously, Chicago and the Axelrod astroturf operation are functioning well on all cylinders this morning!!

AirForceCane on October 3, 2012 at 11:37 AM

is that a one cylinder or two … and isn’t the hamster getting tired by now


conservative tarheel on October 3, 2012 at 5:23 PM

FlaMurph on October 3, 2012 at 12:53 PM

BwwaaaaHaaaaaHaaaa!!!! ROFLMFAO!!!!! Sigh…..

dom89031 on October 3, 2012 at 5:23 PM

If you assume the relatively tied electorate or 2004/2010 and not a replay of outlier turnout of 2008, the polls are suggesting that Romney leads before the first debate by about 49% to 46%:

There is some noise in the polling driven by the degree to which independents are breaking to Romney in each survey.

Bart DePalma on October 3, 2012 at 5:49 PM

how’s mittens doing in Ohio?

Pragmatic on October 3, 2012 at 7:42 PM