It looks like the polls were a pretty accurate snapshot of the race, as they are now.

gumbyandpokey on October 2, 2012 at 5:09 PM

On what basis are you claiming that the polls are a pretty accurate snapshot of the race?

Passed no judgement about your statement. It looks like the polls were a pretty accurate snapshot of the race, as they are now.

“FOX News 10/30-10/31 2004 Kerry +2

For most of that summer Kerry was leading in almost every poll. With an 11% lead in one NBC poll, in fact.”

Hmmm…

It on October 2, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Thanks for providing the info that proves my comment to be correct. (When it learns about using links, it will really be hip to the whole internet thingee.)

For most of that summer Kerry was leading in almost every poll. With an 11% lead in one NBC poll, in fact.”

Hmmm…

Poll Date Sample Bush (R) Kerry (D) Spread
Final Results – – 50.7 48.3 Bush +2.4
RCP Average 10/27 – 11/1 – 48.9 47.4 Bush +1.5
Marist 11/1 – 11/1 – 49 50 Kerry +1
GW/Battleground 10/31 – 11/1 – 50 46 Bush +4
IBD/TIPP 10/30 – 11/1 – 50.1 48 Bush +2.1
CBS News 10/29 – 11/1 – 49 47 Bush +2
Harris 10/29 – 11/1 – 49 48 Bush +1
FOX News 10/30 – 10/31 – 46 48 Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby 10/29 – 10/31 – 48 47 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/29 – 10/31 – 49 49 Tie
NBC/WSJ 10/29 – 10/31 – 48 47 Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post 10/28 – 10/31 – 49 48 Bush +1
ARG 10/28 – 10/30 – 48 48 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 10/28 – 10/30 – 49 46 Bush +3
Pew Research 10/27 – 10/30 – 51 48 Bush +3
Newsweek 10/27 – 10/29 – 50 44 Bush +6
GW/Battleground 10/25 – 10/28 – 51 46 Bush +5
ICR 10/22 – 10/26 – 48 45 Bush +3
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/22 – 10/24 – 51 46 Bush +5
LA Times 10/21 – 10/24 – 48 48 Tie
Newsweek 10/21 – 10/22 – 48 46 Bush +2
Time 10/19 – 10/21 – 51 46 Bush +5
GW/Battleground 10/18 – 10/21 – 49 45 Bush +4
AP-Ipsos 10/18 – 10/20 – 46 49 Kerry +3
Marist 10/17 – 10/19 – 49 48 Bush +1
FOX News 10/17 – 10/18 – 49 42 Bush +7
Pew Research 10/15 – 10/19 – 47 47 Tie
ABC/Wash Post 10/16 – 10/18 – 51 46 Bush +5
NBC/WSJ 10/16 – 10/18 – 48 48 Tie
Harris 10/14 – 10/17 – 49.5 44.5 Bush +5
CBS News/NY Times 10/14 – 10/17 – 47 45 Bush +2
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/14 – 10/16 – 52 44 Bush +8
Time 10/14 – 10/15 – 48 47 Bush +1
Newsweek 10/14 – 10/15 – 50 44 Bush +6
GW/Battleground 10/11 – 10/14 – 49 46 Bush +3
ABC/Wash Post 10/11 – 10/13 – 48 48 Tie
Zogby 10/9 – 10/11 – 45 45 Tie
CBS News 10/9 – 10/11 – 48 45 Bush +3
ICR 10/9 – 10/11 – 48 43 Bush +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/9 – 10/10 – 48 49 Kerry +1
Time 10/6 – 10/7 – 46 45 Bush +1
GW/Battleground 10/3 – 10/7 – 49 46 Bush +3
AP-Ipsos 10/4 – 10/6 – 46 50 Kerry +4
Marist 10/4 – 10/5 – 49 46 Bush +3
FOX News 10/3 – 10/4 – 47 45 Bush +2
ICR 10/1 – 10/5 – 51 45 Bush +6
ARG 10/2 – 10/4 – 46 46 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 10/1 – 10/3 – 51 46 Bush +5
CBS News/NY Times 10/1 – 10/3 – 47 47 Tie
Zogby 10/1 – 10/3 – 46 43 Bush +3
Pew Research 10/1 – 10/3 – 49 44 Bush +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/1 – 10/3 – 49 49 Tie
Newsweek 9/30 – 10/2 – 45 47 Kerry +2
Sacred Heart Univ 9/27 – 10/2 – 48 43 Bush +5
Battleground 9/27 – 9/30 – 51 44 Bush +7
LA Times 9/25 – 9/28 – 51 45 Bush +6
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/24 – 9/26 – 52 44 Bush +8
IBD/TIPP 9/22 – 9/27 – 45 45 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 9/23 – 9/26 – 51 45 Bush +6
Pew Research 9/22 – 9/26 – 48 40 Bush +8
Time 9/21 – 9/23 – 48 42 Bush +6
FOX News 9/21 – 9/22 – 46 42 Bush +4
Battleground 9/20 – 9/23 – 50 45 Bush +5
Marist 9/20 – 9/22 – 50 44 Bush +6
CBS News 9/20 – 9/22 – 51 42 Bush +9
AP-Ipsos 9/20 – 9/22 – 52 45 Bush +7
Pew Research 9/17 – 9/21 – 45 42 Bush +3
NBC/WSJ 9/17 – 9/19 – 50 46 Bush +4
Zogby 9/17 – 9/19 – 46 43 Bush +3
IBD/TIPP 9/14 – 9/18 – 45 42 Bush +3
ARG 9/7 – 9/21 – 47 46 Bush +1
CBS News 9/12 – 9/16 – 50 41 Bush +9
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/13 – 9/15 – 54 40 Bush +14
Battleground 9/12 – 9/15 – 49 45 Bush +4
Pew Research 9/11 – 9/14 – 47 46 Bush +1
Harris 9/9 – 9/13 – 47 48 Kerry +1
Newsweek 9/9 – 9/10 – 49 43 Bush +6
IBD/TIPP 9/7 – 9/12 – 46 46 Tie
Zogby 9/8 – 9/9 – 46 42 Bush +4
Time 9/7 – 9/9 – 52 41 Bush +11
AP-Ipsos 9/7 – 9/9 – 51 46 Bush +5
FOX News 9/7 – 9/8 – 47 43 Bush +4
ABC News/Wash Post 9/6 – 9/8 – 52 43 Bush +9
Pew Research 9/8 – 9/10 – 54 38 Bush +16
CBS News 9/6 – 9/8 – 49 42 Bush +7
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/3 – 9/5 – 52 45 Bush +7
Newsweek 9/2 – 9/3 – 52 41 Bush +11
Time 8/31 – 9/2 – 52 41 Bush +11
Zogby 8/30 – 9/2 – 46 43 Bush +3
ARG 8/30 – 9/1 – 47 47 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 8/26 – 8/29 – 48 48 Tie
Time 8/24 – 8/26 – 46 44 Bush +2
FOX News 8/24 – 8/25 – 43 44 Kerry +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 8/23 – 8/25 – 48 46 Bush +2
NBC/WSJ 8/23 – 8/25 – 47 45 Bush +2
NPR – POS/GQR 8/21 – 8/24 – 43 47 Kerry +4
LA Times 8/21 – 8/24 – 47 44 Bush +3
IBD/TIPP 8/17 – 8/23 – 43 43 Tie
Battleground 8/15 – 8/17 – 43 44 Kerry +1
CBS News 8/15 – 8/18 – 45 46 Kerry +1
Harris 8/10 – 8/15 – 47 47 Tie
Zogby 8/12 – 8/14 – 43 47 Kerry +4
Gallup 8/9 – 8/11 – 48 46 Bush +2
Pew Research 8/5 – 8/10 – 45 47 Kerry +2
Time 8/3 – 8/5 – 43 48 Kerry +5
AP-Ipsos 8/3 – 8/5 – 45 48 Kerry +3
Democracy Corps (D) 8/2 – 8/5 – 44 49 Kerry +5
IBD/TIPP 8/2 – 8/5 – 42 45 Kerry +3
FOX News 8/3 – 8/4 – 43 47 Kerry +4
Marist 7/30 – 8/2 – 47 47 Tie
CBS News 7/31 – 8/1 – 43 48 Kerry +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 7/30 – 8/1 – 51 45 Bush +6
ABC News/Wash Post 7/30 – 8/1 – 47 49 Kerry +2
ARG 7/30 – 8/1 – 45 49 Kerry +4
Newsweek 7/29 – 7/30 – 42 49 Kerry +7
ABC News/Wash Post 7/22 – 7/25 – 48 46 Bush +2
IBD/TIPP 7/19 – 7/24 – 42 44 Kerry +2
Time 7/20 – 7/22 – 43 46 Kerry +3
Quinnipiac 7/18 – 7/22 – 43 44 Kerry +1
FOX News 7/20 – 7/21 – 43 44 Kerry +1
NBC/WSJ 7/19 – 7/21 – 47 45 Bush +2
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 7/19 – 7/21 – 46 47 Kerry +1
LA Times 7/17 – 7/21 – 44 46 Kerry +2
Pew Research 7/8 – 7/18 – 44 46 Kerry +2
IBD/TIPP 7/12 – 7/17 – 40 42 Kerry +2
Marist 7/12 – 7/15 – 44 45 Kerry +1
CBS News/NY Times 7/11 – 7/15 – 42 45 Kerry +3
Democracy Corps (D) 7/10 – 7/13 – 45 48 Kerry +3
ABC News/Wash Post 7/8 – 7/11 – 46 46 Tie
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 7/8 – 7/11 – 45 50 Kerry +5
IBD/TIPP 7/6 – 7/10 – 43 47 Kerry +4
Newsweek 7/8 – 7/9 – 44 47 Kerry +3
Time 7/6 – 7/8 – 45 47 Kerry +2
Zogby 7/6 – 7/7 – 45 47 Kerry +2
AP-Ipsos 7/5 – 7/7 – 49 45 Bush +4
NBC/WSJ 7/6 – 7/6 – 41 49 Kerry +8
ARG 7/1 – 7/3 – 44 47 Kerry +3
NBC/WSJ 6/25 – 6/28 – 45 44 Bush +1
CBS News/NY Times 6/23 – 6/27 – 43 42 Bush +1
FOX News 6/22 – 6/23 – 47 40 Bush +7
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 6/21 – 6/23 – 48 47 Bush +1
Battleground 6/20 – 6/23 – 43 41 Bush +2
Gallup 6/9 – 6/30 – 45 44 Bush +1
ABC News/Wash Post 6/17 – 6/20 – 44 48 Kerry +4
IBD/TIPP 6/14 – 6/19 – 44 41 Bush +3
Harris 6/8 – 6/15 – 51 41 Bush +10
IBD/TIPP 6/8 – 6/13 – 43 40 Bush +3
Pew Research 6/3 – 6/13 – 46 42 Bush +4
AP-Ipsos 6/7 – 6/9 – 46 45 Bush +1
FOX News 6/8 – 6/9 – 42 42 Tie
LA Times 6/5 – 6/8 – 42 48 Kerry +6
Gallup 6/3 – 6/6 – 44 50 Kerry +6
IBD/TIPP 6/1 – 6/6 – 43 41 Bush +2
Zogby 6/2 – 6/5 – 42 44 Kerry +2
ARG 6/1 – 6/3 – 45 46 Kerry +1
Quinnipiac 5/18 – 5/24 – 43 42 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/21 – 5/23 – 46 47 Kerry +1
InsiderAdvantage 5/21 – 5/22 – 43 43 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 5/20 – 5/23 – 46 46 Tie
CBS News 5/20 – 5/23 – 41 47 Kerry +6
FOX News 5/18 – 5/19 – 40 40 Tie
IBD/TIPP 5/12 – 5/18 – 42 41 Bush +1
Newsweek 5/13 – 5/14 – 42 43 Kerry +1
Democracy Corps (D) 5/10 – 5/13 – 45 46 Kerry +1
Zogby 5/10 – 5/13 – 42 47 Kerry +5
CNN 5/12 – 5/13 – 44 49 Kerry +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/7 – 5/9 – 47 45 Bush +2
Pew Research 5/3 – 5/9 – 43 46 Kerry +3
Ayres McHenry 5/3 – 5/6 – 45 41 Bush +4
ARG 5/3 – 5/3 – 44 45 Kerry +1
IBD/TIPP 5/2 – 5/8 – 46 41 Bush +5
AP-Ipsos 5/3 – 5/5 – 46 43 Bush +3
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/2 – 5/4 – 47 47 Tie
NBC/WSJ 5/1 – 5/3 – 46 42 Bush +4
Quinnipiac 4/26 – 5/3 – 43 40 Bush +3
Sacred Heart Univ 4/26 – 5/1 – 52 46 Bush +6
CBS News/NY Times 4/23 – 4/27 – 43 41 Bush +2
Marist 4/20 – 4/23 – 47 43 Bush +4
FOX News 4/21 – 4/22 – 42 40 Bush +2
Democracy Corps (D) 4/19 – 4/22 – 47 44 Bush +3
IBD/TIPP 4/14 – 4/19 – 44 40 Bush +4
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 4/16 – 4/18 – 50 44 Bush +6
ABC News/Wash Post 4/15 – 4/18 – 48 43 Bush +5
Zogby 4/15 – 4/17 – 44.7 45.3 Kerry +0.6
Harris 4/8 – 4/15 – 46 43 Bush +3
InsiderAdvantage 4/12 – 4/14 – 37 43 Kerry +6
Newsweek 4/8 – 4/9 – 42 46 Kerry +4
ARG 4/6 – 4/9 – 43 48 Kerry +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 4/5 – 4/8 – 47 43 Bush +4
FOX News 4/6 – 4/7 – 43 42 Bush +1
AP-Ipsos 4/5 – 4/7 – 45 44 Bush +1
Zogby 4/1 – 4/4 – 46 45 Bush +1
CBS News 3/30 – 4/1 – 43 48 Kerry +5
IBD/TIPP 3/29 – 4/3 – 43 45 Kerry +2
Battleground 3/28 – 3/31 – 43 39 Bush +4
LA Times 3/27 – 3/30 – 44 47 Kerry +3
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 3/26 – 3/28 – 49 45 Bush +4
Pew Research 3/22 – 3/28 – 44 43 Bush +1
Newsweek 3/25 – 3/26 – 45 43 Bush +2
FOX News 3/23 – 3/24 – 43 42 Bush +1
Quinnipiac 3/16 – 3/22 – 46 40 Bush +6
AP-Ipsos 3/19 – 3/21 – 46 43 Bush +3
Democracy Corps (D) 3/16 – 3/21 – 50 47 Bush +3
InsiderAdvantage 3/18 – 3/19 – 46 41 Bush +5
Zogby 3/17 – 3/19 – 46 46 Tie
Newsweek 3/18 – 3/19 – 45 43 Bush +2
CBS News/NY Times 3/10 – 3/14 – 46 38 Bush +8
ARG 3/9 – 3/11 – 42 48 Kerry +6
IBD/TIPP 3/8 – 3/11 – 45 40 Bush +5
NBC/WSJ 3/6 – 3/8 – 45 43 Bush +2
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 3/5 – 3/7 – 44 50 Kerry +6
ABC News/Wash Post 3/4 – 3/7 – 44 48 Kerry +4
IBD/TIPP 3/1 – 3/7 – 41 44 Kerry +3
FOX News 3/3 – 3/4 – 44 44 Tie
AP-Ipsos 3/1 – 3/3 – 46 45 Bush +1
NPR 2/26 – 9/25 – 47 45 Bush +2
Pew Research 2/24 – 2/29 – 44 48 Kerry +4
CBS News 2/24 – 2/27 – 46 47 Kerry +1
Newsweek 2/19 – 2/20 – 45 48 Kerry +3
FOX News 2/18 – 2/19 – 45 45 Tie
ARG 2/17 – 2/19 – 46 48 Kerry +2
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 2/16 – 2/17 – 43 55 Kerry +12
Rasmussen 2/15 – 2/17 – 48 43 Bush +5
Univ. of Connecticut 2/12 – 2/16 – 45 46 Kerry +1
Pew Research 2/11 – 2/16 – 47 47 Tie
CBS News 2/12 – 2/15 – 43 48 Kerry +5
ABC News/Wash Post 2/10 – 2/11 – 43 52 Kerry +9
Rasmussen 2/8 – 2/10 – 46 45 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 2/6 – 2/8 – 49 48 Bush +1
Time 2/5 – 2/6 – 50 48 Bush +2
Newsweek 2/5 – 2/6 – 45 50 Kerry +5
FOX News 2/4 – 2/5 – 47 43 Bush +4
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 1/29 – 2/1 – 46 53 Kerry +7
Rasmussen 1/29 – 1/31 – 43 46 Kerry +3
Quinnipiac 1/28 – 1/31 – 43 51 Kerry +8
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But did we do the same when W was winning the polls in 2004?
Seven Seas on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

FOX News 10/30-10/31 2004 Kerry +2

For most of that summer Kerry was leading in almost every poll. With an 11% lead in one NBC poll, in fact.

Strippers and pollsters are good at spinning on polls

faraway on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Quit insulting strippers. :)

At least strippers know they’re strippers.

Of course we support these stories because Romney is getting beaten in the polls.

But did we do the same when W was winning the polls in 2004?

Seven Seas on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

So it cuts both ways?

Theoretically, yes. Statistically, no.

And nothing in you post seems to touch at all on the subject of this thread. Do you actually read the original postings.

Nice of you to suggest that most pollsters are honest most of the time, though.

Of course we support these stories because Romney is getting beaten in the polls.

But did we do the same when W was winning the polls in 2004?

Seven Seas on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Frank Luntz, who you see on Fox and other places with his focus group things, was my professor for one semester in college. At the time he had a polling firm. It’s all playing with the numbers.

You’d get a better result with a simple “How likely are you to vote?” and “Who are you voting for?” than playing with ratios and numbers. If it’s completely random calling, and you got 5,000 people to answer Very Likely and a candidate, you’d have a fairly accurate result. ANY playing with party affiliation and guessing about turnout for each party, etc, is just to massage the numbers.

Of course, no where did he say that he day that he or any other pollster rigged the numbers, as Romney’s desperate apologists claim. Merely that he put the best possible spin on numbers that were out there. As every campaign everywhere does.

Dog bites man.

urban elitist on October 2, 2012 at 3:44 PM

He wasn’t asked.

And they dont rig the numbers. They simply oversample Democrats. That is not rigging anything.

No liberal thinks the 2012 turnout will be better for Obama than 2008. Not even Obama’s biggest apologists (we like to call them MSNBC). So, why release polls showing a bigger turnout? That is deceptive, if not intended to rig the polls.

And lets not mince words, the media is doing this because in every poll Obama loses independents. Remember when the talking point was that whoever wins indepdents would win? Well, now that Obama seems like he has no chance to win independents, the way to show Obama winning has changed to oversampling Democrats, and that is the problem. It defeats the point of a poll to do what the liberal pollsters are doing, even if people like you love the result and refuse to use your logic skills and question whether they are accurate.

Of course, no where did he say that he day that he or any other pollster rigged the numbers

urbane effetist on October 2, 2012 at 3:44 PM

He didn’t have to.

Because “honest” pollsters aren’t afraid to include their polling demographics when the publish their surveys. And most of the time, most “pollsters” do. But sometimes they do not.

Zogby admitted on TV that he would “poll” on the weekends whenever he wanted his results to favor Dems.

…some times those in the law bemuse me.

Kaptain Amerika on October 2, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Those are the ones who end up in Congress.

I’m still shaking my head at the fact that Edwards got as far in the Democrat Party as he did.

No, actually I’m not.

Dog bites man.

The business I’m in is a business any fool can get into, and a lot can happen.

This quote is a gift.

Pollsters lie?

How about Santa? He’s real, right?

CorporatePiggy on October 2, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Ho, Ho, Ho.

- The Commie
[Slow-jammin' it, with some urban lyrics]

Hmmm trying to come up with another rhythm for troll..

I’ve got nuthin. :-)

Chip on October 2, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Hell, I came up with somehing, in no time:

Antidisestablishmentarianism.

;O)

Same with polling companies. Almost all worthless.

How about Santa? He’s real, right?

“Out of 929 registered voters in the new poll, 161 live in one of these eight states, with a margin of sampling error of eight points.”

They polled 20 people from each of the swing states? Oy.

Yes, we already knew that.

Chip on October 2, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Soul

Hole

mole

coal

toll

bole

foal

goal

knoll

‘ole

vole

there are a few…:)