Campaign pollster under oath: Of course we spin

posted at 2:41 pm on October 2, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

What happens when a pollster testifies under oath?  We get a midday palate cleanser, that’s what.  Politco’s Josh Gerstein digs up testimony from John Edwards’ 2008 campaign pollster Harrison Hickman, who had to explain to a jury whether Edwards was still a viable candidate when money began exchanging hands to keep his affair with Rielle Hunter under wraps.  Edwards’ attorneys had to argue for the purpose of getting their client off the hook that his campaign was a joke by the end of 2007, but that ran into some problems based on Hickman’s published analyses during the winter.  Prosecutors insisted that Hickman thought Edwards could still win, but Hickman responded by explaining the role of campaign pollsters — to spin, spin, and spin some more until the candidate throws in the towel:

Hickman, called by the former senator’s defense, testified that he told Edwards in “early to middle of November 2007,” that the campaign wasn’t going to succeed.

“I told him that the odds were overwhelming that we were not going—that he was not going to be the nominee for president. I mean, we talked about a variety of things might change, do differently, and all that, but none of them translated into winning the nomination,” the North Carolina-based pollster told Edwards attorney Alan Duncan.

However, under cross-examination by lead prosecutor David Harbach, Hickman acknowledged sending a series of emails in November and December, and even into January, endorsing or promoting polls that made Edwards look good. Asked about what appeared to be a New York Times/CBS poll released in mid-November showing an effective “three-way tie” in Iowa with Hillary Clinton at 25 percent, Edwards at 23 percent and Obama at 22 percent, Hickman acknowledged he circulated it but insisted he didn’t think it was correct.

“The business I’m in is a business any fool can get into, and a lot can happen. I’m sure there was a poll like that,” the folksy Hickman told jurors when first asked about a poll showing the race tied. “I kept up with every poll that was done, including our own, and there may have been a few that showed them a tie, but… that’s not really what my analysis is. Campaigns are about trajectory, and… there could have been a point at which it was a tie in the sense that we were coming down, and Obama was going up, and Clinton was going up.”

Hickman also indicated that senior campaign staffers knew many of the polls were poorly done and of little value. “We didn’t take these dog and cat and baby-sitter polls seriously,” he said.

According to Gerstein, reporters seemed bemused by the prosecution’s confusion on this point.  Not only is it rather obvious what campaign pollsters do, it’s pretty similar to what defense attorneys do.  They make the best possible case for their client, right up until reality becomes so obvious that even the client can’t deny it any longer.

Hickman left the jury with a tip on pollster credibility:

Hickman put Mason-Dixon, Strategic Vision, Insider Advantage, Zogby and Research 2000 in the “less reputable” group. He also told the court that ARG polls “have a miserable track record.”

Hickman said he considered the Des Moines Register polls, CNN and Los Angeles Times polls more accurate.

Actually, I think Mason-Dixon has a pretty good record overall, and I’m not as sanguine about CNN’s polling — and I’m not familiar at all with the LA Times’ polling output.  The DMR has a sterling record on polling in Iowa, of course, and is about the only poll worth watching when it comes to caucuses.  Of course, Hickman’s own professed spin might color your perception of his advice, so take it for what it’s worth.


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Pollsters spin? Inconceivable!!

hawkeye54 on October 2, 2012 at 2:44 PM

“The business I’m in is a business any fool can get into, and a lot can happen. I’m sure there was a poll like that,”

Ain’t that the God’s honest truth.

KingGold on October 2, 2012 at 2:45 PM

I’m sure any pollster is able to make the numbers a little more favorable to your view… but of course that always cost a little extra.

Axion on October 2, 2012 at 2:46 PM

In other news: Water is wet, more at 11.

NapaConservative on October 2, 2012 at 2:46 PM

Doh!

cmsinaz on October 2, 2012 at 2:46 PM

“…, but Hickman responded by explaining the role of campaign pollsters — to spin, spin, and spin some more until the candidate throws in the towel:”

I have an idea…

… let’s take another poll.

Seven Percent Solution on October 2, 2012 at 2:47 PM

According to Gerstein, reporters seemed bemused by the prosecution’s confusion on this point. Not only is it rather obvious what campaign pollsters do, it’s pretty similar to what defense attorneys do. They make the best possible case for their client, right up until reality becomes so obvious that even the client can’t deny it any longer.

Enter the media. To hell with reporting, it is all about what message they want to promote. As a very famous man once said, “truth is but a changing law”.

Limerick on October 2, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Strippers and pollsters are good at spinning on polls

faraway on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

The polls cited by Hickman were during the 2008 Democrat primary, where they are probably only polling Democrats.

Imagine how much error / cheating / trickery there could be when trying to guess / spin the relative numbers of Republicans and Democrats who will show up on Election Day.

Steve Z on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Of course we support these stories because Romney is getting beaten in the polls.

But did we do the same when W was winning the polls in 2004?

Seven Seas on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Trolls hardest hit.

Trolls have an affinity for polls.

Polls draw trolls like honey draws flies.

Citing endless polls, is how the troll rolls.

Sans polls, and the troll heart cries.

thatsafactjack on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

The sun is hot. The Commie lies. Nancy Pelosi looks like road-kill. Half of the American voters are cattle. There is no Conservative Party. Today’s music really sucks. The Hemi Cuda was the coolest muscle car.

I could go on.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 2:49 PM

It’s good to get confirmation from the source of what you knew already to be a shady deal..

HotAirian on October 2, 2012 at 2:50 PM

“Never give a sucker an even break.”

“Never try to wise up a chump.”

“You can’t cheat an honest man.”

~ W.C. Fields

thatsafactjack on October 2, 2012 at 2:50 PM

But that cant be true!! Its SCIENCE!!!111! SETTLED SCIENCE!!11!1

Valkyriepundit on October 2, 2012 at 2:51 PM

The Hemi Cuda was the coolest muscle car.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 2:49 PM

Blasphemy! My Pony ate them for lunch.

Limerick on October 2, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Strippers and pollsters are good at spinning on polls

faraway on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Why are MSM polls like hurricanes?

They’re all wet, they’re full of hot air, and they spin to the left.

Steve Z on October 2, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Seven Seas on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Thank you for your concern.

kingsjester on October 2, 2012 at 2:52 PM

WE know that polls always over-predict democrats performance -even in 2004 they did eventually so that.

We complain this year because the underlying facts of the race do not meet up with the top line results. The facts are that Romney is ahead in the overall vote, but struggling in some key swing states – electoral votes are what count.

Zomcon JEM on October 2, 2012 at 2:53 PM

The business I’m in is a business any fool can get into

and alot do!

gonnjos on October 2, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Trolls hardest hit.

Trolls have an affinity for polls.

Polls draw trolls like honey draws flies.

Citing endless polls, is how the troll rolls.

Sans polls, and the troll heart cries.

thatsafactjack on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

That was so droll.

Bada boom ching!

Chip on October 2, 2012 at 2:54 PM

That’s why people take campaign internal polls with a grain of salt. But I thought people here were complaining about media polls that showed Romney behind. Because everyone I know is voting for him, donchaknow.

YYZ on October 2, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Polls are credible because…..oh look, Romney didn’t disclose his tax returns.

/typical troll

NapaConservative on October 2, 2012 at 2:55 PM

And the DA never bothers to clarify or ask him to clarify that he lies for a living? Some times those in the law bemuse me.

Kaptain Amerika on October 2, 2012 at 2:57 PM

“Always believe me when I’m telling you I’m lying.”

Fred 2 on October 2, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Blasphemy! My Pony ate them for lunch.

Limerick on October 2, 2012 at 2:52 PM

Ha! I love all of the muscle cars. And the Boss series were near the top for me. But, I was always a ‘Cuda and Challenger man.

And the ‘Cuda was always my fav.

Love ‘em all, though.

It’s kinda like arguin’ Zeppelin vs. Hendrix vs. Beatles vs. Humble Pie vs. Deep Purple …

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Chip on October 2, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Reflection on the methods of the troll inevitably causes one to be droll.

thatsafactjack on October 2, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Pollsters, like strippers, make their boobs look better

faraway on October 2, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Pollsters, like strippers, make their boobs look better

faraway on October 2, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Oh man, I hate bolt-ons.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Of course, Hickman’s own professed spin might color your perception of his advice, so take it for what it’s worth.

Guy who admits under oath that he’s a professional spinner wouldn’t spin which polls he considers reliable? RIIIIIGGGGHHHHHT.

peski on October 2, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Campaign pollster under oath: Of course we spin

Spin…like that restaurant atop the Space Needle? Or a dreidel?

:P

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on October 2, 2012 at 3:01 PM

It works both ways, Ed. Frank Luntz, who is always featured on Fox, was censured and rigged a survey for Bloomberg that falsely claimed NRA members wanted gun control.

Dante on October 2, 2012 at 3:01 PM

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Hush, or we’ll no doubt get an ex post facto street racing ticket from Napolitano.

Limerick on October 2, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Link for Ed

Dante on October 2, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Looks like some troll pesticide has been sprayed.

hillsoftx on October 2, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Oh man, I hate bolt-ons.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Think of them as nitrous oxide.

faraway on October 2, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Dante on October 2, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Looks like some troll pesticide has been sprayed.

hillsoftx on October 2, 2012 at 3:03 PM

woops, wasn’t potent enough.

hillsoftx on October 2, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Hush, or we’ll no doubt get an ex post facto street racing ticket from Napolitano.

Limerick on October 2, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Or, The Commie and the other more equal Pigs in Congress and the Supreme Court will order us to buy a pair of pink Volts.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 3:04 PM

There once was a troll from Nantucket

who carried his polls in a bucket

the pollster declared ‘I lied!’

the little trolls heart cried

and as he kicked the bucket he sighed ‘Oh ….bucket!’

thatsafactjack on October 2, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Think of them as nitrous oxide.

faraway on October 2, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Made me laugh.

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Yea, no kidding! Pardon me while I say, DUHH! Did anyone really have any doubts on this subject? Seriously, to think that the Dems would get a higher turn out than in 08? Really? This doesn’t even get into the way they qualify the D/R/I and the biased questins to boot!
For those following,How to take on the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 2, 2012 at 3:06 PM

The business I’m in is a business any fool can get into

Just like politics.

Bishop on October 2, 2012 at 3:06 PM

Guppy Poker hardest hit. I might cry a little….naaaah.

Sekhmet on October 2, 2012 at 3:10 PM

…oh oh!…gummeandpokeme is frantically tying his entrails together!

KOOLAID2 on October 2, 2012 at 3:17 PM

Chip on October 2, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Reflection on the methods of the troll inevitably causes one to be droll.

thatsafactjack on October 2, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Hmmm trying to come up with another rhythm for troll..

I’ve got nuthin. :-)

Chip on October 2, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Chip on October 2, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Soul

Hole

mole

coal

toll

bole

foal

goal

knoll

‘ole

vole

there are a few…:)

thatsafactjack on October 2, 2012 at 3:21 PM

“The business I’m in is a business any fool can get into, and a lot can happen.”

Yes, we already knew that.

cajunpatriot on October 2, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Related, from NewBusters – on those goofy WaPo swing state polls:
Jennifer Rubin Forces Washington Post to Explain Its Own Bogus Poll

“Out of 929 registered voters in the new poll, 161 live in one of these eight states, with a margin of sampling error of eight points.”

They polled 20 people from each of the swing states? Oy.

whatcat on October 2, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Pollsters lie?

How about Santa? He’s real, right?

CorporatePiggy on October 2, 2012 at 3:26 PM

the polling reminds me of whats happened to baseball cards…so many different companies making cards out there, the cards value gets watered down so much. Now, pretty much anything after the mid eighties is worthless.

Same with polling companies. Almost all worthless.

joepub on October 2, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Hmmm trying to come up with another rhythm for troll..

I’ve got nuthin. :-)

Chip on October 2, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Hell, I came up with somehing, in no time:

Antidisestablishmentarianism.

;O)

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Pollsters lie?

How about Santa? He’s real, right?

CorporatePiggy on October 2, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Ho, Ho, Ho.

- The Commie
[Slow-jammin' it, with some urban lyrics]

OhEssYouCowboys on October 2, 2012 at 3:31 PM

The business I’m in is a business any fool can get into, and a lot can happen.

This quote is a gift.

tom on October 2, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Of course, no where did he say that he day that he or any other pollster rigged the numbers, as Romney’s desperate apologists claim. Merely that he put the best possible spin on numbers that were out there. As every campaign everywhere does.

Dog bites man.

urban elitist on October 2, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Who gives a getalife about “polls”?

I’m still shaking my head at the fact that Edwards got as far in the Democrat Party as he did.

No, actually I’m not.

Del Dolemonte on October 2, 2012 at 3:49 PM

…some times those in the law bemuse me.

Kaptain Amerika on October 2, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Those are the ones who end up in Congress.

ziggyville on October 2, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Of course, no where did he say that he day that he or any other pollster rigged the numbers

urbane effetist on October 2, 2012 at 3:44 PM

He didn’t have to.

Because “honest” pollsters aren’t afraid to include their polling demographics when the publish their surveys. And most of the time, most “pollsters” do. But sometimes they do not.

Zogby admitted on TV that he would “poll” on the weekends whenever he wanted his results to favor Dems.

Del Dolemonte on October 2, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Of course, no where did he say that he day that he or any other pollster rigged the numbers, as Romney’s desperate apologists claim. Merely that he put the best possible spin on numbers that were out there. As every campaign everywhere does.

Dog bites man.

urban elitist on October 2, 2012 at 3:44 PM

He wasn’t asked.

And they dont rig the numbers. They simply oversample Democrats. That is not rigging anything.

No liberal thinks the 2012 turnout will be better for Obama than 2008. Not even Obama’s biggest apologists (we like to call them MSNBC). So, why release polls showing a bigger turnout? That is deceptive, if not intended to rig the polls.

And lets not mince words, the media is doing this because in every poll Obama loses independents. Remember when the talking point was that whoever wins indepdents would win? Well, now that Obama seems like he has no chance to win independents, the way to show Obama winning has changed to oversampling Democrats, and that is the problem. It defeats the point of a poll to do what the liberal pollsters are doing, even if people like you love the result and refuse to use your logic skills and question whether they are accurate.

milcus on October 2, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Of course we support these stories because Romney is getting beaten in the polls.

But did we do the same when W was winning the polls in 2004?

Seven Seas on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Frank Luntz, who you see on Fox and other places with his focus group things, was my professor for one semester in college. At the time he had a polling firm. It’s all playing with the numbers.

You’d get a better result with a simple “How likely are you to vote?” and “Who are you voting for?” than playing with ratios and numbers. If it’s completely random calling, and you got 5,000 people to answer Very Likely and a candidate, you’d have a fairly accurate result. ANY playing with party affiliation and guessing about turnout for each party, etc, is just to massage the numbers.

PastorJon on October 2, 2012 at 3:58 PM

I’d be curious to click a link to that alleged Zogby “admission.”.

And nothing in you post seems to touch at all on the subject of this thread. Do you actually read the original postings.

Nice of you to suggest that most pollsters are honest most of the time, though.

urban elitist on October 2, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Of course we support these stories because Romney is getting beaten in the polls.

But did we do the same when W was winning the polls in 2004?

Seven Seas on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

So it cuts both ways?

Theoretically, yes. Statistically, no.

tom on October 2, 2012 at 4:00 PM

Reminds me of that commercial “we ALL bundle”

scalleywag on October 2, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Strippers and pollsters are good at spinning on polls

faraway on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Quit insulting strippers. :)

At least strippers know they’re strippers.

Axe on October 2, 2012 at 4:23 PM

U N E X P E C T E D L Y

Tim_CA on October 2, 2012 at 4:25 PM

But did we do the same when W was winning the polls in 2004?
Seven Seas on October 2, 2012 at 2:48 PM

FOX News 10/30-10/31 2004 Kerry +2

For most of that summer Kerry was leading in almost every poll. With an 11% lead in one NBC poll, in fact.

whatcat on October 2, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Wall Street Journal. Fox News. Find another excuse. Remember there’s always the mainstream media.

plewis on October 2, 2012 at 4:29 PM

“FOX News 10/30-10/31 2004 Kerry +2

For most of that summer Kerry was leading in almost every poll. With an 11% lead in one NBC poll, in fact.”

Hmmm…

Poll Date Sample Bush (R) Kerry (D) Spread
Final Results – – 50.7 48.3 Bush +2.4
RCP Average 10/27 – 11/1 – 48.9 47.4 Bush +1.5
Marist 11/1 – 11/1 – 49 50 Kerry +1
GW/Battleground 10/31 – 11/1 – 50 46 Bush +4
IBD/TIPP 10/30 – 11/1 – 50.1 48 Bush +2.1
CBS News 10/29 – 11/1 – 49 47 Bush +2
Harris 10/29 – 11/1 – 49 48 Bush +1
FOX News 10/30 – 10/31 – 46 48 Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby 10/29 – 10/31 – 48 47 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/29 – 10/31 – 49 49 Tie
NBC/WSJ 10/29 – 10/31 – 48 47 Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post 10/28 – 10/31 – 49 48 Bush +1
ARG 10/28 – 10/30 – 48 48 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 10/28 – 10/30 – 49 46 Bush +3
Pew Research 10/27 – 10/30 – 51 48 Bush +3
Newsweek 10/27 – 10/29 – 50 44 Bush +6
GW/Battleground 10/25 – 10/28 – 51 46 Bush +5
ICR 10/22 – 10/26 – 48 45 Bush +3
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/22 – 10/24 – 51 46 Bush +5
LA Times 10/21 – 10/24 – 48 48 Tie
Newsweek 10/21 – 10/22 – 48 46 Bush +2
Time 10/19 – 10/21 – 51 46 Bush +5
GW/Battleground 10/18 – 10/21 – 49 45 Bush +4
AP-Ipsos 10/18 – 10/20 – 46 49 Kerry +3
Marist 10/17 – 10/19 – 49 48 Bush +1
FOX News 10/17 – 10/18 – 49 42 Bush +7
Pew Research 10/15 – 10/19 – 47 47 Tie
ABC/Wash Post 10/16 – 10/18 – 51 46 Bush +5
NBC/WSJ 10/16 – 10/18 – 48 48 Tie
Harris 10/14 – 10/17 – 49.5 44.5 Bush +5
CBS News/NY Times 10/14 – 10/17 – 47 45 Bush +2
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/14 – 10/16 – 52 44 Bush +8
Time 10/14 – 10/15 – 48 47 Bush +1
Newsweek 10/14 – 10/15 – 50 44 Bush +6
GW/Battleground 10/11 – 10/14 – 49 46 Bush +3
ABC/Wash Post 10/11 – 10/13 – 48 48 Tie
Zogby 10/9 – 10/11 – 45 45 Tie
CBS News 10/9 – 10/11 – 48 45 Bush +3
ICR 10/9 – 10/11 – 48 43 Bush +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/9 – 10/10 – 48 49 Kerry +1
Time 10/6 – 10/7 – 46 45 Bush +1
GW/Battleground 10/3 – 10/7 – 49 46 Bush +3
AP-Ipsos 10/4 – 10/6 – 46 50 Kerry +4
Marist 10/4 – 10/5 – 49 46 Bush +3
FOX News 10/3 – 10/4 – 47 45 Bush +2
ICR 10/1 – 10/5 – 51 45 Bush +6
ARG 10/2 – 10/4 – 46 46 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 10/1 – 10/3 – 51 46 Bush +5
CBS News/NY Times 10/1 – 10/3 – 47 47 Tie
Zogby 10/1 – 10/3 – 46 43 Bush +3
Pew Research 10/1 – 10/3 – 49 44 Bush +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/1 – 10/3 – 49 49 Tie
Newsweek 9/30 – 10/2 – 45 47 Kerry +2
Sacred Heart Univ 9/27 – 10/2 – 48 43 Bush +5
Battleground 9/27 – 9/30 – 51 44 Bush +7
LA Times 9/25 – 9/28 – 51 45 Bush +6
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/24 – 9/26 – 52 44 Bush +8
IBD/TIPP 9/22 – 9/27 – 45 45 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 9/23 – 9/26 – 51 45 Bush +6
Pew Research 9/22 – 9/26 – 48 40 Bush +8
Time 9/21 – 9/23 – 48 42 Bush +6
FOX News 9/21 – 9/22 – 46 42 Bush +4
Battleground 9/20 – 9/23 – 50 45 Bush +5
Marist 9/20 – 9/22 – 50 44 Bush +6
CBS News 9/20 – 9/22 – 51 42 Bush +9
AP-Ipsos 9/20 – 9/22 – 52 45 Bush +7
Pew Research 9/17 – 9/21 – 45 42 Bush +3
NBC/WSJ 9/17 – 9/19 – 50 46 Bush +4
Zogby 9/17 – 9/19 – 46 43 Bush +3
IBD/TIPP 9/14 – 9/18 – 45 42 Bush +3
ARG 9/7 – 9/21 – 47 46 Bush +1
CBS News 9/12 – 9/16 – 50 41 Bush +9
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/13 – 9/15 – 54 40 Bush +14
Battleground 9/12 – 9/15 – 49 45 Bush +4
Pew Research 9/11 – 9/14 – 47 46 Bush +1
Harris 9/9 – 9/13 – 47 48 Kerry +1
Newsweek 9/9 – 9/10 – 49 43 Bush +6
IBD/TIPP 9/7 – 9/12 – 46 46 Tie
Zogby 9/8 – 9/9 – 46 42 Bush +4
Time 9/7 – 9/9 – 52 41 Bush +11
AP-Ipsos 9/7 – 9/9 – 51 46 Bush +5
FOX News 9/7 – 9/8 – 47 43 Bush +4
ABC News/Wash Post 9/6 – 9/8 – 52 43 Bush +9
Pew Research 9/8 – 9/10 – 54 38 Bush +16
CBS News 9/6 – 9/8 – 49 42 Bush +7
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/3 – 9/5 – 52 45 Bush +7
Newsweek 9/2 – 9/3 – 52 41 Bush +11
Time 8/31 – 9/2 – 52 41 Bush +11
Zogby 8/30 – 9/2 – 46 43 Bush +3
ARG 8/30 – 9/1 – 47 47 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 8/26 – 8/29 – 48 48 Tie
Time 8/24 – 8/26 – 46 44 Bush +2
FOX News 8/24 – 8/25 – 43 44 Kerry +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 8/23 – 8/25 – 48 46 Bush +2
NBC/WSJ 8/23 – 8/25 – 47 45 Bush +2
NPR – POS/GQR 8/21 – 8/24 – 43 47 Kerry +4
LA Times 8/21 – 8/24 – 47 44 Bush +3
IBD/TIPP 8/17 – 8/23 – 43 43 Tie
Battleground 8/15 – 8/17 – 43 44 Kerry +1
CBS News 8/15 – 8/18 – 45 46 Kerry +1
Harris 8/10 – 8/15 – 47 47 Tie
Zogby 8/12 – 8/14 – 43 47 Kerry +4
Gallup 8/9 – 8/11 – 48 46 Bush +2
Pew Research 8/5 – 8/10 – 45 47 Kerry +2
Time 8/3 – 8/5 – 43 48 Kerry +5
AP-Ipsos 8/3 – 8/5 – 45 48 Kerry +3
Democracy Corps (D) 8/2 – 8/5 – 44 49 Kerry +5
IBD/TIPP 8/2 – 8/5 – 42 45 Kerry +3
FOX News 8/3 – 8/4 – 43 47 Kerry +4
Marist 7/30 – 8/2 – 47 47 Tie
CBS News 7/31 – 8/1 – 43 48 Kerry +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 7/30 – 8/1 – 51 45 Bush +6
ABC News/Wash Post 7/30 – 8/1 – 47 49 Kerry +2
ARG 7/30 – 8/1 – 45 49 Kerry +4
Newsweek 7/29 – 7/30 – 42 49 Kerry +7
ABC News/Wash Post 7/22 – 7/25 – 48 46 Bush +2
IBD/TIPP 7/19 – 7/24 – 42 44 Kerry +2
Time 7/20 – 7/22 – 43 46 Kerry +3
Quinnipiac 7/18 – 7/22 – 43 44 Kerry +1
FOX News 7/20 – 7/21 – 43 44 Kerry +1
NBC/WSJ 7/19 – 7/21 – 47 45 Bush +2
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 7/19 – 7/21 – 46 47 Kerry +1
LA Times 7/17 – 7/21 – 44 46 Kerry +2
Pew Research 7/8 – 7/18 – 44 46 Kerry +2
IBD/TIPP 7/12 – 7/17 – 40 42 Kerry +2
Marist 7/12 – 7/15 – 44 45 Kerry +1
CBS News/NY Times 7/11 – 7/15 – 42 45 Kerry +3
Democracy Corps (D) 7/10 – 7/13 – 45 48 Kerry +3
ABC News/Wash Post 7/8 – 7/11 – 46 46 Tie
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 7/8 – 7/11 – 45 50 Kerry +5
IBD/TIPP 7/6 – 7/10 – 43 47 Kerry +4
Newsweek 7/8 – 7/9 – 44 47 Kerry +3
Time 7/6 – 7/8 – 45 47 Kerry +2
Zogby 7/6 – 7/7 – 45 47 Kerry +2
AP-Ipsos 7/5 – 7/7 – 49 45 Bush +4
NBC/WSJ 7/6 – 7/6 – 41 49 Kerry +8
ARG 7/1 – 7/3 – 44 47 Kerry +3
NBC/WSJ 6/25 – 6/28 – 45 44 Bush +1
CBS News/NY Times 6/23 – 6/27 – 43 42 Bush +1
FOX News 6/22 – 6/23 – 47 40 Bush +7
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 6/21 – 6/23 – 48 47 Bush +1
Battleground 6/20 – 6/23 – 43 41 Bush +2
Gallup 6/9 – 6/30 – 45 44 Bush +1
ABC News/Wash Post 6/17 – 6/20 – 44 48 Kerry +4
IBD/TIPP 6/14 – 6/19 – 44 41 Bush +3
Harris 6/8 – 6/15 – 51 41 Bush +10
IBD/TIPP 6/8 – 6/13 – 43 40 Bush +3
Pew Research 6/3 – 6/13 – 46 42 Bush +4
AP-Ipsos 6/7 – 6/9 – 46 45 Bush +1
FOX News 6/8 – 6/9 – 42 42 Tie
LA Times 6/5 – 6/8 – 42 48 Kerry +6
Gallup 6/3 – 6/6 – 44 50 Kerry +6
IBD/TIPP 6/1 – 6/6 – 43 41 Bush +2
Zogby 6/2 – 6/5 – 42 44 Kerry +2
ARG 6/1 – 6/3 – 45 46 Kerry +1
Quinnipiac 5/18 – 5/24 – 43 42 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/21 – 5/23 – 46 47 Kerry +1
InsiderAdvantage 5/21 – 5/22 – 43 43 Tie
ABC News/Wash Post 5/20 – 5/23 – 46 46 Tie
CBS News 5/20 – 5/23 – 41 47 Kerry +6
FOX News 5/18 – 5/19 – 40 40 Tie
IBD/TIPP 5/12 – 5/18 – 42 41 Bush +1
Newsweek 5/13 – 5/14 – 42 43 Kerry +1
Democracy Corps (D) 5/10 – 5/13 – 45 46 Kerry +1
Zogby 5/10 – 5/13 – 42 47 Kerry +5
CNN 5/12 – 5/13 – 44 49 Kerry +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/7 – 5/9 – 47 45 Bush +2
Pew Research 5/3 – 5/9 – 43 46 Kerry +3
Ayres McHenry 5/3 – 5/6 – 45 41 Bush +4
ARG 5/3 – 5/3 – 44 45 Kerry +1
IBD/TIPP 5/2 – 5/8 – 46 41 Bush +5
AP-Ipsos 5/3 – 5/5 – 46 43 Bush +3
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 5/2 – 5/4 – 47 47 Tie
NBC/WSJ 5/1 – 5/3 – 46 42 Bush +4
Quinnipiac 4/26 – 5/3 – 43 40 Bush +3
Sacred Heart Univ 4/26 – 5/1 – 52 46 Bush +6
CBS News/NY Times 4/23 – 4/27 – 43 41 Bush +2
Marist 4/20 – 4/23 – 47 43 Bush +4
FOX News 4/21 – 4/22 – 42 40 Bush +2
Democracy Corps (D) 4/19 – 4/22 – 47 44 Bush +3
IBD/TIPP 4/14 – 4/19 – 44 40 Bush +4
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 4/16 – 4/18 – 50 44 Bush +6
ABC News/Wash Post 4/15 – 4/18 – 48 43 Bush +5
Zogby 4/15 – 4/17 – 44.7 45.3 Kerry +0.6
Harris 4/8 – 4/15 – 46 43 Bush +3
InsiderAdvantage 4/12 – 4/14 – 37 43 Kerry +6
Newsweek 4/8 – 4/9 – 42 46 Kerry +4
ARG 4/6 – 4/9 – 43 48 Kerry +5
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 4/5 – 4/8 – 47 43 Bush +4
FOX News 4/6 – 4/7 – 43 42 Bush +1
AP-Ipsos 4/5 – 4/7 – 45 44 Bush +1
Zogby 4/1 – 4/4 – 46 45 Bush +1
CBS News 3/30 – 4/1 – 43 48 Kerry +5
IBD/TIPP 3/29 – 4/3 – 43 45 Kerry +2
Battleground 3/28 – 3/31 – 43 39 Bush +4
LA Times 3/27 – 3/30 – 44 47 Kerry +3
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 3/26 – 3/28 – 49 45 Bush +4
Pew Research 3/22 – 3/28 – 44 43 Bush +1
Newsweek 3/25 – 3/26 – 45 43 Bush +2
FOX News 3/23 – 3/24 – 43 42 Bush +1
Quinnipiac 3/16 – 3/22 – 46 40 Bush +6
AP-Ipsos 3/19 – 3/21 – 46 43 Bush +3
Democracy Corps (D) 3/16 – 3/21 – 50 47 Bush +3
InsiderAdvantage 3/18 – 3/19 – 46 41 Bush +5
Zogby 3/17 – 3/19 – 46 46 Tie
Newsweek 3/18 – 3/19 – 45 43 Bush +2
CBS News/NY Times 3/10 – 3/14 – 46 38 Bush +8
ARG 3/9 – 3/11 – 42 48 Kerry +6
IBD/TIPP 3/8 – 3/11 – 45 40 Bush +5
NBC/WSJ 3/6 – 3/8 – 45 43 Bush +2
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 3/5 – 3/7 – 44 50 Kerry +6
ABC News/Wash Post 3/4 – 3/7 – 44 48 Kerry +4
IBD/TIPP 3/1 – 3/7 – 41 44 Kerry +3
FOX News 3/3 – 3/4 – 44 44 Tie
AP-Ipsos 3/1 – 3/3 – 46 45 Bush +1
NPR 2/26 – 9/25 – 47 45 Bush +2
Pew Research 2/24 – 2/29 – 44 48 Kerry +4
CBS News 2/24 – 2/27 – 46 47 Kerry +1
Newsweek 2/19 – 2/20 – 45 48 Kerry +3
FOX News 2/18 – 2/19 – 45 45 Tie
ARG 2/17 – 2/19 – 46 48 Kerry +2
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 2/16 – 2/17 – 43 55 Kerry +12
Rasmussen 2/15 – 2/17 – 48 43 Bush +5
Univ. of Connecticut 2/12 – 2/16 – 45 46 Kerry +1
Pew Research 2/11 – 2/16 – 47 47 Tie
CBS News 2/12 – 2/15 – 43 48 Kerry +5
ABC News/Wash Post 2/10 – 2/11 – 43 52 Kerry +9
Rasmussen 2/8 – 2/10 – 46 45 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 2/6 – 2/8 – 49 48 Bush +1
Time 2/5 – 2/6 – 50 48 Bush +2
Newsweek 2/5 – 2/6 – 45 50 Kerry +5
FOX News 2/4 – 2/5 – 47 43 Bush +4
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 1/29 – 2/1 – 46 53 Kerry +7
Rasmussen 1/29 – 1/31 – 43 46 Kerry +3
Quinnipiac 1/28 – 1/31 – 43 51 Kerry +8
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gumbyandpokey on October 2, 2012 at 4:32 PM

“FOX News 10/30-10/31 2004 Kerry +2

For most of that summer Kerry was leading in almost every poll. With an 11% lead in one NBC poll, in fact.”

Hmmm…

It on October 2, 2012 at 4:32 PM

Thanks for providing the info that proves my comment to be correct. (When it learns about using links, it will really be hip to the whole internet thingee.)

whatcat on October 2, 2012 at 4:40 PM

“Thanks for providing the info that proves my comment to be correct. (When it learns about using links, it will really be hip to the whole internet thingee.)”

Passed no judgement about your statement. It looks like the polls were a pretty accurate snapshot of the race, as they are now.

gumbyandpokey on October 2, 2012 at 5:09 PM