New CNN poll has Obama up 50%-47% among likely voters.

Sample is Dem +8.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 4:52 PM

This doesn’t help your case. With D+8, Obama should be up more, but he isn’t. This tells me that Obama is getting killed with independents, so when the actual breakdown comes out showing Dems +3 or lower, Romney will be up 3 – 4 points and maybe more.

The MSM is being shown for the hacks they are now. When this is done, and if Romney wins, every one of these liberal polling organizations like CNN and PPP, etc. who are in the tank for Obama and who are trying to shape public opinion and depress GOP turnout should be investigated by Congress. They have violated their constitutional mandate of merely informing the public to actually advocating for the Dems.

I agree with those posters who think you should be banned. Your trolling is embarrassing. Shoo.

As a business-person, Romney has to understand that you don’t throw good money after bad: Romney Losing Donors to GOP House, Senate Candidates.

Romney’s own small base of donors know that Team Romney is dead in the water. They’re played. They’ve got nothing left. The question is when are you going to wake up and smell Team Romney’s self-immolation?

What does it take to ban this gumpyandpockey? What is the mechanism?

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 10:14 AM

A kiln.

Besides the fact that Reagan was leading in some polls, Carter’s numbers were far below Obama’s, often in the 45% range, even when ahead. Obama is at 50%, which is all he needs to win. He’s basically already won, unless he has a terrible debate, and the election resets, as in 04.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

That wasn’t the point.

You said Reagan was in the lead, and Reagan was behind by as much as 8 points.

Here it is again:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/flashback-gallup-had-carter-up-4-points-over-ronald-reagan-in-september-1980

Reagan was behind in late October.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

blah blah blah blah blah

Maybe the swing states are not actually the swing states..or maybe the polling is off. I don’t know…but if things are tight nationally there should not be a big gap in the swing states.

Besides the fact that Reagan was leading in some polls, Carter’s numbers were far below Obama’s, often in the 45% range, even when ahead. Obama is at 50%, which is all he needs to win. He’s basically already won, unless he has a terrible debate, and the election resets, as in 04.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

The RCP average was nearly exact in it’s prediction. If you looked at RCP a day before the election, you knew who would win and by how much.

“According to what you cut and pasted, Scott Brown was in fact losing in the final “polls” done by the NY Times owned Boston Globe, as well as those done by BlueMA and Rasmussen. I’m still laughing my getalife off at that Globe “poll”, which showed Brown losing by 17. Too funny.”

These were the polls in the final week. Nobody could look at them and think Brown wasn’t as shoe-in…

Politico/InAdv 1/17 – 1/17 804 LV 52 43 Brown +9
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/17 – 1/17 574 LV 52 42 Brown +10
PPP (D) 1/16 – 1/17 1231 LV 51 46 Brown +5
ARG 1/15 – 1/17 600 LV 52 45 Brown +7
R2000/Daily Kos (D) 1/15 – 1/17 500 LV 48 48 Tie
InsideMedford/MRG 1/15 – 1/15 565 LV 51 41 Brown +10
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/14 – 1/14 946 LV 54 39 Brown +15
ARG 1/12 – 1/14 600 LV 48 45 Brown +3
Blue Mass Group/R2000 (D) 1/12 – 1/13 500 LV 41 49 Coakley +8
Suffolk/7News 1/11 – 1/13 500 LV 50 46 Brown +4
Rasmussen Reports 1/11 – 1/11 1000 LV 47 49 Coakley +2

Decoski on October 1, 2012 at 7:03 PM”

Mark Belling said today on his radio show that it looks like Romney/Ryan have written off WI due to the lack of ads here.

And I’ve said before that the lack of ads from Romney/campaign money stories will be written immediately after the election as part of the post-mortem on the failed Romney bid.

John McCain even seemed to run more ads despite taking public financing…and better ads…the “celebrity” spot was fantastic.

It’s interesting how so many of you say “remember Reagan in 80″ and he led from mid Sept on, “remember Walker” and he was almost always ahead, and now “remember Scott Brown” and he was solidly ahead for the last month.

Do any of you have some examples where the trailing candidate actually WON on election day?

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 6:17 PM

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/flashback-gallup-had-carter-up-4-points-over-ronald-reagan-in-september-1980

Reagan was behind in late October.

Exit polls in the Scott Walker race show the opponent within 3. Walker wins by 7, blowing past the margin of error.

http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=10175

This supports a 4-5% error when polling…….

Del Dolemonte on October 1, 2012 at 6:38 PM

That should be EPIC! Especially after last week’s revelations…

Del Dolemonte on October 1, 2012 at 6:35 PM

And thats what the local TV stations were trumpeting too. The last one I heard had Marcia up by 6.

I don’t remember Reagan being ahead until after the historic landslide. I will look into it though. Back then pollsters had some credibility. Rass may try, but we’ve had a huge culture shift since then. Cellphones and internet for example.

daveyandgoliath on October 1, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Did you even bother to read what your were cutting and pasting re. the Brown/Coakley “polls” before you put it up? Certainly doesn’t help your “argument”.

According to what you cut and pasted, Scott Brown was in fact losing in the final “polls” done by the NY Times owned Boston Globe, as well as those done by BlueMA and Rasmussen. I’m still laughing my getalife off at that Globe “poll”, which showed Brown losing by 17. Too funny.

Do any of you have some examples where the trailing candidate actually WON on election day?

daveyandgoliath on October 1, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Above. Thanks for playing!

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Um nope the elections. But I remember those suffolk polls for Marcia.

The only one I paid any attention to were the number of people that showed up to see her and Zero as opposed to those waiting to see Brown. I’ve mentioned it a few times.

Do any of you have some examples where the trailing candidate actually WON on election day?

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Which is why you know Obama is going to lose. In reality he’s way behind. The WaPo is so panicked they went all in and made up a fake poll to try to help him LOL!

Do any of you have some examples where the trailing candidate actually WON on election day?

You mean the polls in the last month that nailed the elections?

Final Results – – 51.8 47.1 Brown +4.7
Politico/InAdv 1/17 – 1/17 804 LV 52 43 Brown +9
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/17 – 1/17 574 LV 52 42 Brown +10
PPP (D) 1/16 – 1/17 1231 LV 51 46 Brown +5
ARG 1/15 – 1/17 600 LV 52 45 Brown +7
R2000/Daily Kos (D) 1/15 – 1/17 500 LV 48 48 Tie
InsideMedford/MRG 1/15 – 1/15 565 LV 51 41 Brown +10
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/14 – 1/14 946 LV 54 39 Brown +15
ARG 1/12 – 1/14 600 LV 48 45 Brown +3
Blue Mass Group/R2000 (D) 1/12 – 1/13 500 LV 41 49 Coakley +8
Suffolk/7News 1/11 – 1/13 500 LV 50 46 Brown +4
Rasmussen Reports 1/11 – 1/11 1000 LV 47 49 Coakley +2
PPP (D) 1/7 – 1/9 744 LV 48 47 Brown +1
Rasmussen Reports 1/4 – 1/4 500 LV 41 50 Coakley +9
Boston Globe 1/2 – 1/6 554 LV 36 53 Coakley +17
Suffolk 11/4 – 11/8 600 RV 27 58 Coakley +31
Western NE College 10/18 – 10/22 342 LV 32 58 Coakley +26
Suffolk 9/12 – 9/15 500 RV 24 54 Coakley +30

Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WeAskAmerica 5/23 – 5/23 1409 LV 54 42 Walker +12
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5
Daily Kos/PPP (D) 5/11 – 5/13 LV 50 45 Walker +5
WeAskAmerica 5/13 – 5/13 1219 LV 52 43 Walker +9
Marquette University 5/9 – 5/12 600 LV 50 44 Walker +6
Rasmussen Reports 5/9 – 5/9 500 LV 50 45 Walker +5
Marquette University 4/26 – 4/29 561 LV 48 47 Walker +1
Daily Kos/PPP (D) 4/13 – 4/15 1136 LV 50 45 Walker +5
Marquette University 3/22 – 3/25 707 RV 47 45 Walker +2
PPP (D) 2/23 – 2/26 900 RV 46 49 Barrett +3
Marquette University 1/19 – 1/22 701 RV 50 44 Walker +6
PPP (D) 10/20 – 10/23 1170 RV 48 46 Walker +2
PPP (D) 8/12 – 8/14 830 RV 47 48 Barrett +1

The media were all atwitter Monday over a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finding President Obama eleven points ahead of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in key swing states.

Within 90 minutes of the Post’s Jennifer Rubin exposing that the margin of error in the poll was – wait for it! – an astonishing eight points, the paper felt the need to publish a new piece explaining the whole thing.

An 8 point MOE? Simply hallucinogenic.

F—–

New CNN poll has Obama up 50%-47% among likely voters.

Sample is Dem +8.

daveyandgoliath on October 1, 2012 at 4:52 PM

John Hinderaker @ Power Line:

So today’s CNN/ORC poll has Obama’s lead cut in half, to three points. Does that mean that Romney is surging? Not really. It means they didn’t call quite as many Democrats. This time, the pollsters gave us the partisan breakdown of their sample: D-37%, R-29% and I-34%. So when the partisan gap in the sample narrowed from D +12 to D +8, Romney did three points better. Well, yeah.

Is either of these sample compositions plausible as a representation of the 2012 electorate? Plainly not. Currently, Scott Rasmussen finds that more voters identify themselves as Republicans than Democrats, and all surveys report that intensity is at least as high among Republicans as among Democrats this year. So who could possibly believe that there will be 8% more Democrats than Republicans at the polls in November?

Polls like the ones conducted by CNN and ORC are useful primarily as an indicator of which party’s members are more likely to answer their telephones when they are called by strangers.

Happy Viewing!

2ndMAW68 on October 1, 2012 at 4:28 PM
gerrym51 on October 1, 2012 at 5:36 PM

So they DID FABRICATE IT. That poll is FAKE.

The media is the enemy and should be treated as such.

PatriotGal2257 on October 1, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Yes. I have no doubt they are even willing to completely fabricate a poll to help him. Look they are willing to completely ignore the death of a US Ambassador and all the other Embassies under siege. Why is it so hard to believe they would lie by commission if they are willing to lie by omission?

They have been fabricating poll results for over a month, it’s not a stretch to believe they are fabricating the whole thing.

All the real information we have shows just the opposite of what they are telling us. R&R attract huge crowds. Zero has to move his speech indoors to avoid being embarrassed.

Remember 2010?
Scott Brown?
Scott Walker?

The dems have lost big every time it counted. They are only doing this in a vain attempt to deligitimize Romney’s win and they will become more shrill until Nov 7. Then they will go into attack mode hyperdrive.