WaPo/ABC poll: Tied nationally — but a big Obama swing-state lead?

posted at 8:41 am on October 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Can Mitt Romney have such a huge lead in non-swing states that he can be within two points of Barack Obama nationally — but be behind in swing states by eleven?  So says the Washington Post today in their curiously schizophrenic report:

Nationally, the race is unmoved from early September, with 49 percent of likely voters saying they would vote for Obama if the election were held today and 47 percent saying they would vote for Romney. Among all registered voters, Obama is up by a slim five percentage points, nearly identical to his margin in a poll two weeks ago.

But 52 percent of likely voters across swing states side with Obama and 41 percent with Romney in the new national poll, paralleling Obama’s advantages in recent Washington Post polls in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Even more curious, the shift in attitudes in the electorate should be favoring Romney over Obama:

A slim majority of voters now see Romney’s wealth as a positive, signifying his achieving the “American Dream.” Fewer are focusing on issues of economic inequality and the gap between rich and poor. And there has been a big jump in the number of voters who say he has paid his fair share in taxes.

Just after Romney released his 2010 tax return earlier this year that showed he had paid a federal income tax rate of about 14 percent, 66 percent of voters said he had not paid his fair share. Now, after the release of his 2011 return showing a similar tax rate, 48 percent say he is not paying his fair share, and about as many, 46 percent, say he is.

This time, the issue isn’t sampling — at least not in the national polling.  The D/R/I is only a D+3 at 33/30/33, a pretty reasonable model for this year’s election. That’s right in between the 2008 and 2010 exit polling results.

The big gap on swing states makes less sense, though.  The biggest non-swing states should favor Obama — California, New York, and Illinois, with Texas being the only large non-swing state that is firmly in the Republican column.  Romney will win the South easily, but Obama gets the whole West Coast and most of New England, too.  Without a chance to see the samples in each state and the demographic breakout, I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

Rasmussen’s update yesterday on its swing-state tracking poll showed Romney trailing by four, within the margin of error.  That sounds more reasonable for a two-point national race.


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Polls smoles. The only one that counts is in November. Until then everything else is just noise.

HotAirian on October 1, 2012 at 8:44 AM

More liberal propaganda. I put this on ignore.

Philly on October 1, 2012 at 8:46 AM

WaPo = Creigh Deeds water carrier.

SouthernGent on October 1, 2012 at 8:46 AM

It’s a tied raced everywhere.

Except in all of the places where Obama leads spectacularly.

profitsbeard on October 1, 2012 at 8:47 AM

The race is close, but there is still plenty of time to go. I predict things will move even more in Romney’s direction in the next few weeks. Romney has a little ground to make up, but not as much as this poll suggests.

We need to pull out all the stops getting out the vote in the swing states.

bluegill on October 1, 2012 at 8:47 AM

should schmoles i think

t8stlikchkn on October 1, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Lib polls: Same ole game, new twist.

petefrt on October 1, 2012 at 8:48 AM

The mindless masses have no idea what they are doing to this country. Over the next four years we had better steel ourselves for the complete destruction of this once great Republic. Sad but true.

rplat on October 1, 2012 at 8:49 AM

The only DC poll I believe is the one where Zero leads by 150 percent of the Anacostia vote.

viking01 on October 1, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Romney leads big in horse-owning rich folk who like to make people cancerous, but Barky leads in normal people who aren’t racist money grubbers.

Bishop on October 1, 2012 at 8:49 AM

I guess all the really smart people in America live in Ohio, Florida and Virginia. Especially Florida.//

BettyRuth on October 1, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Yep. We’ve seen this before.

kingsjester on October 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Slam dunk for dear leader
-msdnc

cmsinaz on October 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

There will be no NY Times polls this week. They are all over in North Korea brushing up on their jounalism continueing eductation
requirements.

acyl72 on October 1, 2012 at 8:51 AM

No more polls!

gophergirl on October 1, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Assuming that the polls are not intentionally cooked, think about all the campaign assaults in those swing states. I’d guess that lots of people, maybe conservatives more than others, are just not willing to waste time taking opinion polls. Especially if people (conservatives) believe that the polls are not fairly weighted.

RBMN on October 1, 2012 at 8:54 AM

There is no way from electoral point of view that someone it tied in national poll but way behind in the battleground states…

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Say it early, say it often……..

The BRADLEY EFFECT.

FlaMurph on October 1, 2012 at 8:56 AM

I’ve been called exactly twice in my life by polling organizations I’ve never heard of before, and the first thought that came to mind was “You’re going to twist my answer anyway” so I developed a bad cough on the spot and told them I had to go.

Bishop on October 1, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Well, a lead for Obie in Ohio doesn’t surprise me.

With a million people enjoying their free Obamaphones in a state of about 11.5 million – that’s a pretty nice percentage ‘bought and paid for (bribed)’ with our phone fees to vote Obama.

marybel on October 1, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Even the usually unwavering Obama presstitute Bob Schieffer was having a tough time making eye contact with the camera when pimping the narrative of how much the housing market had (cough) improved.

viking01 on October 1, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Rasmussen’s update yesterday on its swing-state tracking poll showed Romney trailing by four, within the margin of error. That sounds more reasonable for a two-point national race.

By the way this Rasmussen poll that showed Obama +4 in swing states had a D +9 sample…

In this Rasmusen swing state poll from yesterday Obama is at 48% with 84% Democrat support, 10% Republican support, and 39% Independents supports. Romney is at 44% with 86% Republican support, 12% democrat support, and 43% Indepedents support… To get these results I calculated that his polling sample is 40% democrats, 31% Republicans, and 29% independents…

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 9:00 AM

I think I saw one poll this past week that claimed Obama was leading in North Carolina. Sorry, but any pollster who tries to sell that is in the tank. He won by less than 14,000 votes in 2008 and he ain’t building on that margin this time around. Particularly after the gay marriage flip-flop.

Doughboy on October 1, 2012 at 9:00 AM

That’s a lot of Obamaphones.

franciscodanconia on October 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

The trick is to try to manipulate the Romney campaign into spending extra time and money in particular states. They’ve done it before like this and they’ll do it again. Fortunately Romney has plenty of money.

eyedoc on October 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Yep. We’ve seen this before.

kingsjester on October 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

All-in-all a very good blog post. But check out your last line. You might have a typo on the dates.

dirtseller on October 1, 2012 at 9:03 AM

No more polls!

gophergirl on October 1, 2012 at 8:53 AM

…can’t do that!…gummeandpokeme and the other trolls would wither on the vine… dry up and cease to exsist…and then where would we be?…oh yeah!…actually discussing the issues!

KOOLAID2 on October 1, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Obamabot came to the house yesterday. My wife was dealing with her, explaining she had the wrong house when my 3 yr old walked out and proclaimed something that only my wife understood. She laughed, embarrassed. The unwelcome visitor asked for a translation. My wife tried to put her off, but the woman persisted. With some pressuring, my wife relented and told her that my son said “Obama is naughty”. With that, my wife suggested to the woman that she leave before I came out to discuss Obama. The whole family had a big laugh!

freedomfirst on October 1, 2012 at 9:05 AM

The trick is to try to manipulate the Romney campaign into spending extra time and money in particular states. They’ve done it before like this and they’ll do it again. Fortunately Romney has plenty of money.

eyedoc on October 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

And to give up in other states that he has a good shot at. I hope he’s devoting resources to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. He doesn’t need all 3, but if he can pick off 1, he’s in great shape. 2 of them and he’s all but won the election.

Doughboy on October 1, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Swing State Obama phone recipients talk to pollsters…

PatriotRider on October 1, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Rasmussen’s update yesterday on its swing-state tracking poll showed Romney trailing by four, within the margin of error. That sounds more reasonable for a two-point national race.

this poll of +4 for obama includes Pennsylvania and Michigan where Romney probably isn’t within the margin of error and will most likely lose.

gracie on October 1, 2012 at 9:06 AM

dirtseller on October 1, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Fixed. Thank you!

kingsjester on October 1, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Collective swing state polls are stupid and almost worthless. They include big “swing states” like PA and and MI that Romney will only win in a landslide.

Jon0815 on October 1, 2012 at 9:08 AM

The only explanation for the difference in swing states and National is that nationally we are not seeing ads up the wazoo.

To be clear I think the polling is off and even Rasmussen might be underestimating who is pi$$ed off and will vote and who will stay home.

Having said that I keep hearing Romney’s ads are weak and I don’t like the rumblings I hear from Romney that he isn’t going to go negative. I am starting get pi$$ed that he would get personal against Republicans but these friggin advisors are so scared the independents will run away from negative advertising which seems to be working for Obama if these swing states differences are true.

Time to drop the independents don’t respond to negative advertising from Republicans meme. These Frank Luntz focus groupers are lying to themselves that they are morally superior enough that they are unaffected when the polls say otherwise.

Conan on October 1, 2012 at 9:09 AM

These two left wing rags need to publish all of their sampling statistics and detailed demographics. These polls are mathematical garbage designed by the leftist media to influence voter behavior rather than inform. ABC and The Washington Post make the old Pravda look like a conservative news agency.

rplat on October 1, 2012 at 9:09 AM

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Not saying I don’t believe you because I was good at math too, but can you show your work.

I don’t get how or why he was +3 R in his monthly calculation, but seems convinced the eventual electorate will be +3 Dem

gsherin on October 1, 2012 at 9:10 AM

It’s Mitten’s race to lose.

rollthedice on October 1, 2012 at 9:11 AM

twisting the will of the 9% who actually answer polls.

astonerii on October 1, 2012 at 9:11 AM

All this talk of polls not mattering or being wrong is silly and ultimately leads to defeat. Polls do matter and are a great tool if used effectively. I’ll give you an actual example from this weekend. I live in the Columbus OH area and was at the grocery store on Saturday. I saw a group of propel in the parking lot with coolers, asked if they were Michigan State fans since one of their cars had Michigan plates. The guy said no, they were volunteering for the Obama campaign. I asked why they were here in Columbus and he said “this is where we are needed”. His group consisted of folks from Northern KY, TN, IN, and AR!

The polls tell you where you are competitive and not…where you should send folks and not, and where you are so far behind/ahead you should reallocate your resources.

The GOP is managing the battle not the war. Instead of whining about the polls, they should be using them to activate supporters into action. MI and PA out of reach, fine …reallocate teams to OH, VA and IA. The “we are winning and everything is fine” mantra is more destructive than the polls they push against. As has been noted by many, Obama emails are exactly the opposite, they convey the urgency of a underdog under siege and a call to action.

If unskewerd/ dickmorris is right and Romney is up 7.5, sit back and relax…..everything is fine.

NextGen on October 1, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I’ve said this before & I’ll say it again.

Utter Chicago-style horsesh!t.

If you suspend disbelief for a moment, maybe. But if you look around and listen with your own two eyes & ears, it’s another story entirely.

Romney is supposedly ahead of O’Butthead on the economy, foreign policy, and with independents, yet he significantly trails in a few swing states – you know, the ones everyone has said are “key” to the election. Yeah, right.

I live in blue CT, and all I see are Romney and other local GOP signs – there isn’t ONE Obama bumper sticker or yard sign to be found. And these had O’Butthead signs all over the place in ’08.

Closet voters? I don’t think so. It’s all a game, and has been so for months, with the bordering-on-treason MSM a willing accomplice designed to depress the vote.

Economy is about to go into recession round two, the ME is on fire, and we’re supposed to believe the majority of voters want to give O’Butthead more time because Bill Clinton says so?

Give me a f*cking break. Not happening. Not even close.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 1, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Not saying I don’t believe you because I was good at math too, but can you show your work.
I don’t get how or why he was +3 R in his monthly calculation, but seems convinced the eventual electorate will be +3 Dem
gsherin on October 1, 2012 at 9:10 AM

I noticed this too and my thinking is that since everyone is so far to the left of him Rasmussen can say it will be D+3 and STILL be to the the right of all the other predictions. I am suspicious he doesn’t HAVE to be anymore Republican leaning to be the top predictor so he isn’t.

Conan on October 1, 2012 at 9:17 AM

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on October 1, 2012 at 9:13 AM

When you overhear a conversation in blue Minnesota at a Home Depot where one person says “Romney is a businessman and that’s what we need” you know the Dog Eater is in trouble.

Still, I was in St. Paul on Saturday and the communism is strong there; yards were carpeted with signs extolling the virtues of such stalwarts as Franken, Ellison, and Klobuchar. And of course the obligatory “WELLSTONE!” signs. Guys been dead for almost 10 years now.

Bishop on October 1, 2012 at 9:18 AM

I don’t get how or why he was +3 R in his monthly calculation, but seems convinced the eventual electorate will be +3 Dem

gsherin on October 1, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Dems usually have a turnout advantage in presidential elections. There are more registered Dems than Reps overall, as well.

changer1701 on October 1, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Attn: MSM!

I stopped paying attention to your slanted, dishonest, untrustworthy polls a long time ago!

pilamaye on October 1, 2012 at 9:18 AM

True polls or not, it’s Oct 1st and mitt romney better get his ass in gear and get to slamming this P.O.S. for all of america to see starting today, wednsday and everyday till november 6th. i am fed up with this god damn pansy ass campaign he is running. and that is exactly what it is!

GhoulAid on October 1, 2012 at 9:19 AM

This is the same corrupt media that covered up a terror attack on 9-11 by AQ.

faraway on October 1, 2012 at 9:20 AM

I am in the Toledo, OH area. Lucas County is lost to Obama. Everything in this part of the state is on the decline, but it is a Democratic stronghold. The place could be in ashes and folks here would still vote Obama. I am so worried about the other parts of the state.

Obama has an ad campaign running around the clock about Obama saving the auto industry and Ohio jobs, with Mitt talking about wishing Detroit went bankrupt. Even though the Mitt comment is taken out of context, it is a devastating ad nonetheless and something Ohioans are listening to, I’m afraid.

More people are on benefits, food stamps, and other government programs in Ohio, way up from 2008.

It’s a travesty, and I fear it would take a miracle for Mitt to take the state. He has to do something more here in Ohio. Flood the state with ads, stronger ground game. Get your butt to Toledo, Mitt!

nitzsche on October 1, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Polling companies do not make money off of credibility.

Credulity, perhaps, but not credibility. They make their money two ways. First, they produce “Internal” polls that are detailed and accurate. What they produce as an Internal poll is orders of magnitude different from what is produced for public consumption. The breakdowns are infinitesimally detailed and accurate. Contingencies and alternative scenarios are discussed. The entities [campaigns and news organizations] who buy them want truth, but they do not allow that truth out to the public. That costs a bunch of money, and they pay it.

Second, pollsters produce polls for publication. They use the Golden Rule. “He who has the Gold, makes the Rules.” They know what the paying client [once again, campaigns and news organizations] wants as a result; and they will bias the results in any way necessary to give the client what they want. So long as both the public and private markets are getting what they are paying for, “credibility” means diddley-squat. In fact, the polling companies get “credibility” through their association with the media gatekeepers. As long as for the last poll before the election they are close enough to have an excuse, it is all good for them.

The reader/listener/watcher is not the Market. He/She is the product being manipulated into [or in the current election, out of] the voting booth. If you are in a floating craps game [a passable description of the American political system as it has evolved and stands now] and look around and cannot figure out who the ‘mark’ is …… it’s you.

Subotai Bahadur on September 30, 2012 at 4:15 PM

From one of yesterdays threads….and worth repeating.

lynncgb on October 1, 2012 at 9:21 AM

If GOP voters turn out, and if Romney carries independents, I think he squeaks this out. Dem enthusiasm just isn’t there. I live in a very red part of VA, and even here in ’08 there were a LOT of Obama yard signs and bumper stickers. There are hardly any this year. Romney and Ryan will be here Thursday for a rally, too, so the campaign is clearly focused on getting out the GOP vote.

changer1701 on October 1, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Slightly misleading headline…within MOE isn’t the same as Tied.

pauljc on October 1, 2012 at 9:22 AM

This poll may be unskewing a bit (props to Unskewedpolls.com for forcing the hands of pollster) but it still has statistical issues. For starters, in the last presidential election, we had the greatest LV-RV turnout ratio in 40 years and it was still only 82% of registered voters actually voting. This poll says 813 out of 929 registered voters are likely, 87%. Somebody’s lying to the pollsters … or perhaps the pollster are still pushing their thumb down on the Obama side of the scale.

Further, out of 929 voters, how in world can you get any real read on swing states? If you identify 10 states as swing state and your sample is random, you’re using only 16 or so votes per state to make that assessment. Is that not ridiculous?

Michael Barone wrote a piece today in which he defends somewhat the integrity of pollsters by saying they might be stupid but not corrupt. Hate to disagree with the good man, but balderdash. How could any pollster who isn’t corrupt put out a poll with these kind of numbers and act like they have an honest read on the public pulse?

The pollsters truly have been chastened by the unskewed talk recently. They are moving closer to fair. But they are doing it kicking and screaming. I checked Pew’s numbers from the last election and found that they pretended Obama was leading by 15 the week before the election, only to narrow it to 7 the last day. Do you really think McCain had a 7 point surge that last week?

They’re corrupt and we must call them out on it.

MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:22 AM

@iowahawkblog

Everything you need to know about polls: Pew admits response rate is only 9%. http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/

@iowahawkblog

Polling response rates: 36% (1997), 28% (2000), 25% (2003), 21% (2006), 15% (2009), 9% (2012). Houston, we have a problem.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:22 AM

The trick is to try to manipulate the Romney campaign into spending extra time and money in particular states. They’ve done it before like this and they’ll do it again. Fortunately Romney has plenty of money.
eyedoc on October 1, 2012 at 9:01 AM

I am suspicious that the Obama campaign wants to limit the battleground states so they can concentrate resources. They make a BIG effort to say they have no problems in Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa which make me think they don’t want Romney to draw it out to those state and make them spread their effort from Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Conan on October 1, 2012 at 9:23 AM

This time, the issue isn’t sampling — at least not in the national polling. The D/R/I is only a D+3 at 33/30/33, a pretty reasonable model for this year’s election. That’s right in between the 2008 and 2010 exit polling results.

Ed,

I still can’t see straight after watching the Ryder Cup yesterday, but I don’t see where Party Identification is shown.

Judging by answers to other question including Obama’s handling of terrorism improving (sic) the poll looks to me like D+10 (question 10 f where Obama leads 53-39)

Basilsbest on October 1, 2012 at 9:23 AM

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll of likely voters shows President Barack Obama ahead 49 percent to 47 percent.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:23 AM

The swing state poll defies common sense. These are called “swing” states for a reason–because their electorate is so closely divided and can swing either way. If Obama won OH and VA and FL and CO with modest margins in ’08, how can he be so far ahead in 2012 when there’s been a falling-off of the youth vote, the Jewish vote, the Catholic vote, the white middle class vote, even the black vote? At most it will be close–as, indeed, Rasmussen is showing. No one can reasonably argue that Democrats are as intensely engaged as they were in ’08, especially in swing states.

My guess is the media is already pulling in its horns with this latest WP poll. The rest will soon follow. I don’t think they quite expected the conservative blow-back on the polls–which put them on the defensive and further compromised their already damaged credibility. Pollsters especially have reacted defensively when their phony weightings are taken with a grain of salt–as they should be, since they defy plausibility. In fact this was always destined to be a tight race. Right now Obama has a 46% job approval rating by Gallup. What should that tell us? Far more than these recent polls imo.

writeblock on October 1, 2012 at 9:24 AM

49 percent of likely voters saying they would vote for Obama if the election were held today and 47 percent saying they would vote for Romney

Only about 55% will actually vote, so 40% are lying. It all depends on which 55% are motivated to go to the polls.

topdog on October 1, 2012 at 9:24 AM

nitzsche on October 1, 2012 at 9:20 AM

mitt is still within the margin of error in Ohio.

gracie on October 1, 2012 at 9:24 AM

@iowahawkblog

The polling industry’s dirty little secret: to get a single survey, they have to call TEN numbers.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I got polled the other day for the first time ever. It was so exciting. But I don’t know why they are bothering with me. I live in New York State. Still I had great fun saying I love Paul Ryan and Strongly disapprove of Obama.

magicbeans on October 1, 2012 at 9:26 AM

All I can say is the VA GOP is working hard to get the vote out. This weekend, I got a absentee form from them essentially making the case that VA Republicans need to beat back Obamacare and all the very bad things it does to the Commonwealth. They’ve also had people going door-to-door in my very blue county.

In short, whether it works or not, the GOP here is trying to defeat the rat-eared coward and his mini-me Senatorial candidate Tim Kaine.

Happy Nomad on October 1, 2012 at 9:27 AM

This election isn’t even close. That’s the narrative they all wanted to push up to two weeks ago, then they saw a glimmer of success in their skewed polls and lost all fear and began producing flat out lying polls. “The race is over,” they all declared, what, three days ago?

It isn’t over. Romney could still lose. But he’s up 5 to 7%. This needs to be broadcast over and over, mainly so the morons who think of themselves as the Republican elite (I’m looking at you, Bill Kristol, Peggy Noonan, and a whole lot of others) will stop writing idiot columns based on a myth the lib/dem/media have created.

We are winning folks. Winning. Let’s start acting like it.

MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:27 AM

If people still don’t know what the difference is between a communist and a capitalist, and which one is the right choice for freedom, something is drastically wrong. What could the indecision possibly be based on??….maybe it would be better to be a serf to a government master?????

Mimzey on October 1, 2012 at 9:28 AM

I live in a very red part of VA, and even here in ’08 there were a LOT of Obama yard signs and bumper stickers. There are hardly any this year. Romney and Ryan will be here Thursday for a rally, too, so the campaign is clearly focused on getting out the GOP vote.

changer1701 on October 1, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Same here in my very blue part of VA. Few yard signs and what there are seem predominantly for R/R and Allen.

Happy Nomad on October 1, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Not saying I don’t believe you because I was good at math too, but can you show your work.

I don’t get how or why he was +3 R in his monthly calculation, but seems convinced the eventual electorate will be +3 Dem

gsherin on October 1, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Here is the Math:

% Obama = (84×40 + 10×31 +39×29)/100 = 48.01%

% Romney = (12×40 + 86×31 + 43×29)/100 = 43.93%

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 9:30 AM

What we are witnessing, in the first week of October, is a bunch of liars starting to attempt to change their stories in a sneaky, insidious way. The Great Unskewing has begun.

It’s a beautiful thing to behold. It gives Romney the appearance of momentum. He really has none. He’s been ahead 5 – 7 points all along. We are just witnessing the false Obama surge being air-brushed out.

We got Skewed, but now it’s them that’s getting Screwed. Gotta love it.

MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:31 AM

The fly on the wall in the WH is revealing that Obama’s internal polling shows he’s in big trouble. The pollsters will “correct themselves” over the next few weeks, (to regain credibility), showing the race in a dead heat—even in the swing states. The narrative that Romney had a bad September by the lamestream media, (while the middle east is burning and more important the anemic adjusted GDP—1.3—-), proves Obama’s policies,(both domestic and foreign), have failed the American voter. Two things stand out for a Romney victory; stating the FACTS about Obama’s failures, and a massive Republican turnout as large as 2010.

It’s still about the ECONOMY AND JOBS!

Rovin on October 1, 2012 at 9:32 AM

It isn’t over. Romney could still lose. But he’s up 5 to 7%. This needs to be broadcast over and over, mainly so the morons who think of themselves as the Republican elite (I’m looking at you, Bill Kristol, Peggy Noonan, and a whole lot of others) will stop writing idiot columns based on a myth the lib/dem/media have created.

We are winning folks. Winning. Let’s start acting like it.

MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I don’t believe the polls. For one thing how do they wiegh out the fact that many people don’t have landlines any more? And just what is the predictive factor to guage likely voter turn-out. I don’t think I’ve ever been more motivated to show up on election day.

That being said, I don’t think it necessarily a bad thing to have the narrative that Romney is a couple of points behind the rat-eared coward.

Happy Nomad on October 1, 2012 at 9:33 AM

We are winning folks. Winning. Let’s start acting like it.
MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:27 AM

You have to admit if we could get big journalists on the left to start ripping the Obama campaign we would be laughing all the way to the election. Have you seen anybody even HINT that there is anything EVER wrong with the Obama campaign from the MSM? That they need to do this or that. Why do we have the circular firing squad on our side? I say because the beltway ding-dongs are so into what they hear around themselves that they can’t resist the panic button.

Conan on October 1, 2012 at 9:33 AM

The MSM is so in the bag it’s embarrassing.

itsspideyman on October 1, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Rasmussen today has Obama +6 (51-45) in the swing states, so it looks very possible that Obama is doing better there than nationally. And it makes sense since his ads run non-stop there.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:34 AM

We all must ask ourselves, how in the world did Obama ever get a bump last week? The economy is downgraded, Libya is a mess, the administration is now being questioned about it by the MSM (a miracle, I know) … where did those 8, 9 and 10 point leads come from?

Dark, black withered hearts. Pollsters, in other words, who love Obama. Which, of course, is most of them.

MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Maybe swing-state polls are over-sampling women and minorities, in order to gauge their votes effectively, then either conveniently forgetting they did this, or assume 2008+ turnout, and rolling the over-sample into the general D numbers.

Sekhmet on October 1, 2012 at 9:35 AM

This time, the issue isn’t sampling — at least not in the national polling. The D/R/I is only a D+3 at 33/30/33, a pretty reasonable model for this year’s election. That’s right in between the 2008 and 2010 exit polling results.

Yeah but what is the sample of the swing states poll?

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 9:36 AM

All is proceeding as Rush Limbaugh predicted: the closer we get to the election, the bigger the advantage for Obama in the polls, no matter how they twist their responses to get it.

Mitsouko on October 1, 2012 at 9:37 AM

don’t believe the polls. For one thing how do they wiegh out the fact that many people don’t have landlines any more?
Happy Nomad on October 1, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I saw an awful explanation that they weighed the democrats so heavy to make up for cell phones being used by Obama’s core groups (Young and Minorities) as a reason the poll looked the way it did. Think about that. So you say using land lines favors Republicans so you use weighting to make up that FAVORS democrats heavily suddenly (overcompensation anyone?) and then others say landlines favors Democrats so that is how you get a skewered sample and DON’T use weighting to correct for that. WTF?

Conan on October 1, 2012 at 9:38 AM

“Yeah but what is the sample of the swing states poll?”

It’s 16 likely votes per state. 160 for the so-called 10 swing states. Sound like a good sample to you?

MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:38 AM

“Maybe swing-state polls are over-sampling women and minorities, in order to gauge their votes effectively, then either conveniently forgetting they did this, or assume 2008+ turnout, and rolling the over-sample into the general D numbers.”

The Swing State numbers are just a subset, not a separate survey, so the sampling is the same. A problem could be including PA, MI and WI in the totals, since Obama is ahead by wide margins there. But all the trends (especially Ras) show Romney doing very poorly in swing states.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:40 AM

There is only one explanation for how a poll of 817 likely voters can make a declaration about swing states: they are lying, cheating false prophets. Seriously, I wanted to say “bastards” but I have sworn off swearing. But false prophets is better, actually. Only they don’t prophesy the future, the prophesy the present. And they can’t even get that right. (Well, they can. They just lie about it.)

MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Rasmussen today has Obama +6 (51-45) in the swing states, so it looks very possible that Obama is doing better there than nationally. And it makes sense since his ads run non-stop there.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Oh please I did the math from yesterday rasmussen swing state poll showing Obama 48% and Romney 44%… It is a D+9 sample. Why? Because Obama got 84% of Democrats, 10% of Republicans, and 39% of Independents… Romney got 85% of Republicans, 12% of democrats, and 43% of independents…

Based on this I calculated that the sample had 40% democrats, 31% Republicans, and 29% Independents… The equations are below:

% Obama = (84×40 + 10×31 +39×29)/100 = 48.01%

% Romney = (12×40 + 86×31 + 43×29)/100 = 43.93%

So I am certain that this D+9 sample is the same today as it was yesterday in Rasmussen swing state poll since those are daily tracking polls…

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 9:41 AM

And it makes sense since his ads run non-stop there.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Yeah, right. And Romney’s not showing up for any campaign events either. That is the bullchit lie you tried to run by us yesterday, isn’t it?

I live in a swing state, and from what I’m seeing Romney is matching your boy king ad for ad.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:41 AM

The sum of the parts is indeed greater than the whole. Must be that new math these liberals have introduced into our education system.

iamsaved on October 1, 2012 at 9:43 AM

“We all must ask ourselves, how in the world did Obama ever get a bump last week?”

That’s easy. Both Consumer Confidence surveys showed more people think the economy is getting better. Whether you agree with it or not, that is a fact.

http://phys.org/news/2012-10-consumer-confidence-significant-gain-september.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-28/u-s-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-rose-to-78-3-in-september.html

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:43 AM

This is literally almost impossible unless:

1. Romney is literally getting 100% of the vote in the red states, is barely losing in 2 of the Democratic big 4 (MA, CA, NY or IL), and then is losing the swing states by 11. Because to be only “down” by 2, and losing the swing states by 11 means you have to make up the points somewhere else. And if Republican excitement is that strong in red states, that will translate to swing states. And if its closer than expected in 2 of the 4 big democratic strongholds, then there is no reason to believe that Romney is losing swing states,

2. Romney is flat out winning blue states that he is not supposed to. Again, you cant be down 11 in the swing states and only be down by 2 in other states unless you are making up that ground elsewhere. The Republican wins in the states that Romney is supposed to take are strong anyway, and you figure California and NY are lost, so that means Romney has to be stronger in places like NJ, CT and OR than the media is giving him credit for. Again, that doesn’t bode well for Democrats either, or

3. To skew the independent sample, they put a state like California in the “swing state” category, or

3. The poll badly oversamples Democrats in the swing states, but undersamples them everywhere else. But that runs into problem 1 or 2 above.

So, this poll is almost mathematically impossible unless WaPo is not telling us something about the sample that caused such a difference.

For that matter, Rasmussen seems off as well. If it is close nationally, you are not getting that much of a disparity in the swing states.

milcus on October 1, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Rasmussen today has Obama +6 (51-45) in the swing states, so it looks very possible that Obama is doing better there than nationally. And it makes sense since his ads run non-stop there.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:34 AM

I am starting to feel that Rasmussen is starting to hedge his bets.

Let’s say he sees Romney leading by 5. Why does he need to be that far out there? Why not say Obama is ahead by 6 since everyone else is even more out there on Obama’s lead?

Polling is just about being the most accurate and you can have Obama ahead by 6 and still be the farthest to the right of any pollster.

Conan on October 1, 2012 at 9:45 AM

AP/WP pollsters talking after analyzing the data:

Pollster #1: Well, it looks like the jig is up. We’re going to have to admit pretty soon that Romney has been ahead the whole time.

Pollster #2: You new around here? Don’t be a moron. We admit nothing. We let our numbers creep back to reality by election day. In the meantime, we find good things to say even about bad numbers.

Pollster #1: But what’s good to say about this. We’ve cooked the books and Obama’s only up 2 and we both know Romney’s really up 5 – 7. We don’t dare go any further than 2 for Obama.

Pollster #2: Yeah but look here: we have 16 votes from Ohio, 7 of them from Cuyahoga County. It’s Obama, Obama, Obama there. We point out this.

Pollster #1: I see. And these 16 votes we got from Michigan which show Romney up by 8?

Pollster #2: (Holding up a pencil upsidedown) They don’t put erasers on these things for nothing.

MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Two things here …those of us from the “BUCKEYE” state are very guarded abouut disclosing who we are voting for. I liken it to giving out information about how much you paid for your house or your car or perhaps how much you may have in your savings account. You just dont disclose this to some stranger on the phone.(unless you are a democrat). With that said I believe these polls are skewed and not exactly believable. Secondly they are ramping up these polls in the president’s favor only to scream “VOTER FRAUD” if Romney wins. They can then claim… how could this of happened when Barack Obama was ahead in every poll in Ohio leading up to the election!!

justonevictory on October 1, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Polling mystery revealed: Keep calling until Obama is ahead.

faraway on October 1, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Obama is beating Romney among Independents.

Rasmussen Monday: Obama up 48-45, 50-47 with leaners. Party support even for respective candidates with indies moving back to Obama 43-39, 48-43 with leaners. Swing states Obama 48-44, 51-45 with leaners.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:47 AM

The smell of Liberal Desperation is in the air.

kingsjester on October 1, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Being an outlier is scary. You wonder, am I wrong? And you get accused of all kinds of things. Ras is the outlier to the right. I’m sure he’s under pressure from the pack to move left.

Now that the election is drawing closer and the other pollsters are moving to the right (by necessity), Ras will be liberated. Of course, he would like to get out from under that “He’s a Republican pollster” charge (he, by the way, correctly showed Obama up 7 or so over McCain the entire last 5 weeks of the cycle last time) so he still won’t be too far to the right.

MaxMBJ on October 1, 2012 at 9:50 AM

“I am starting to feel that Rasmussen is starting to hedge his bets.”

Rasmussen was the last pollster to show Obama ahead of McCain, but once he got there, the result was locked and never moved from a 5-7 pt lead. And looking at Rasmussen, you see that the leaning voters are very favorable to Obama, so I doubt what’s left of the undecided will break for the challenger this year.

I do have to laugh at people now questioning Rasmussen since he’s in line with every other pollster now showing Obama clearly ahead. A few weeks ago, it was “I only pay attention to Ras!” LOL, ok, pay attention to Ras now.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Doughboy on October 1, 2012 at 9:00 AM

We’ve been seeing Obama TV ads here in Lubbock. MY guess is the ads are really geared to our neighbors an hour west(That’s how close we are to the NM border)-because even Zero isn’t dumb enough to believe that he’s got a shot @ winning TX…is he?

annoyinglittletwerp on October 1, 2012 at 9:54 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Run along back to your kindergarten class, or you’ll miss nap time.

annoyinglittletwerp on October 1, 2012 at 9:56 AM

“Run along back to your kindergarten class, or you’ll miss nap time.

annoyinglittletwerp on October 1, 2012 at 9:56 AM”

And miss you guys tying yourselves into knots trying to spin away Rasmussen, when a week ago he was the only honest pollster out there and the only one to pay attention to? Nah, this is too much fun.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:59 AM

The smell of Liberal Desperation is in the air.

kingsjester on October 1, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Yep. When Axelrod’s least favorite pool boy is on here early spamming the latest DNC narrative then Zero’s outlook likely ain’t so hot.

viking01 on October 1, 2012 at 10:00 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:51 AM

And we have to laugh at you – again.

Dude, the gig is up. Only 9% of Americans are being polled. And from that you expect us to believe that gives an accurate prediction of how this race is going to end up?

I’ve got a nice piece of land in Florida you might be interested in.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 10:00 AM

kingsjester on October 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Good blog post. What I always find absolutely hilarious is that the liberals are too stupid to figure out that conservatives have a better grasp of history than they do. In fact, the entire Dem playbook is jam packed with the same recycled crap that’s been in use for the past 40+ years.

I realize full well that we are not their audience — the low-info voters are — and they may be taken in by this. But we’re not and we can gleefully point it out every chance we get.

PatriotGal2257 on October 1, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Dude, the gig is up. Only 9% of Americans are being polled. And from that you expect us to believe that gives an accurate prediction of how this race is going to end up?

I’ve got a nice piece of land in Florida you might be interested in.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 10:00 AM

I think it’s time the banhammer came down on that fool. All he does is troll polling threads.

changer1701 on October 1, 2012 at 10:03 AM

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