WaPo/ABC poll: Tied nationally — but a big Obama swing-state lead?

posted at 8:41 am on October 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Can Mitt Romney have such a huge lead in non-swing states that he can be within two points of Barack Obama nationally — but be behind in swing states by eleven?  So says the Washington Post today in their curiously schizophrenic report:

Nationally, the race is unmoved from early September, with 49 percent of likely voters saying they would vote for Obama if the election were held today and 47 percent saying they would vote for Romney. Among all registered voters, Obama is up by a slim five percentage points, nearly identical to his margin in a poll two weeks ago.

But 52 percent of likely voters across swing states side with Obama and 41 percent with Romney in the new national poll, paralleling Obama’s advantages in recent Washington Post polls in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.

Even more curious, the shift in attitudes in the electorate should be favoring Romney over Obama:

A slim majority of voters now see Romney’s wealth as a positive, signifying his achieving the “American Dream.” Fewer are focusing on issues of economic inequality and the gap between rich and poor. And there has been a big jump in the number of voters who say he has paid his fair share in taxes.

Just after Romney released his 2010 tax return earlier this year that showed he had paid a federal income tax rate of about 14 percent, 66 percent of voters said he had not paid his fair share. Now, after the release of his 2011 return showing a similar tax rate, 48 percent say he is not paying his fair share, and about as many, 46 percent, say he is.

This time, the issue isn’t sampling — at least not in the national polling.  The D/R/I is only a D+3 at 33/30/33, a pretty reasonable model for this year’s election. That’s right in between the 2008 and 2010 exit polling results.

The big gap on swing states makes less sense, though.  The biggest non-swing states should favor Obama — California, New York, and Illinois, with Texas being the only large non-swing state that is firmly in the Republican column.  Romney will win the South easily, but Obama gets the whole West Coast and most of New England, too.  Without a chance to see the samples in each state and the demographic breakout, I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

Rasmussen’s update yesterday on its swing-state tracking poll showed Romney trailing by four, within the margin of error.  That sounds more reasonable for a two-point national race.


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“We all must ask ourselves, how in the world did Obama ever get a bump last week?”

That’s easy. Both Consumer Confidence surveys showed more people think the economy is getting better. Whether you agree with it or not, that is a fact.

http://phys.org/news/2012-10-consumer-confidence-significant-gain-september.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-28/u-s-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-rose-to-78-3-in-september.html

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Well that’s no surprise. When a poll comes out showing that only 15% of Democrats think the economic news is bad, it stands to reason that consumer confidence will rise.

Doughboy on October 1, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Swing states are where they will win or lose it all, so that is where they need the phony polling numbers to discourage living humans from going to the polls and voting Romney.

Just a hunch that part of the vaunted ground game the Dems have put together (with the unions) is already taking place, having the thugs and welfare kings posted next to their phones and claiming they are Rs or Is when called by pollsters, and of course giving the right answer “Obama!”

2ndMAW68 on October 1, 2012 at 10:05 AM

The polls are bogus. Even David Ploufe insinuated as much on This Weak, Fake the Nation, and the Sunday roundups. He said he expects the polls to tighten. So their internals must be telling them something different.

Red Creek on October 1, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Rasmussen is not above applying a little english to the numbers. Just before the Republican convention I noticed a downtick in Romney’s numbers–though nothing had happened to justify this and he had been holding steady at 2 pts above Obama. Then came the convention–and voila!–a miraculous “bump” and Romney was up 2 pts again. I don’t think it was a bump at all, it was Rasmussen creating a phony bump. Same here. Look for a “bump” after the debate. Nothing has happened in recent days to justify a sudden big surge in swing state numbers–except for this new way of computing results to include “leaners.” I may be paranoid but I think we’re being set up. All these self-important pollsters play games with the numbers, Rasmussen included.

writeblock on October 1, 2012 at 10:12 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:59 AM

I live in TEXAS. and I’m seeing Obama ads. Those fools have as much chance of winning Texas as I do of waking up on my birthday later this month, and discovering that I’ve actually turned 32 rather than 42.

Desperation is in the air.

annoyinglittletwerp on October 1, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I think it’s time the banhammer came down on that fool. All he does is troll polling threads.

changer1701 on October 1, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I agree… He is by far the most annoying of all trolls and he lies too much… What does it take to ban this gumpyandpockey? What is the mechanism?

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I think it’s time the banhammer came down on that fool. All he does is troll polling threads.

changer1701 on October 1, 2012 at 10:03 AM

In 37 days gumby will hop on his trusted steed pokey, and hobble away because pokey’s legs have been twisted into so many knots, too embarrassed to ever show himself around here again.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 10:16 AM

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I looked at today’s swing state poll and used the same 40D/31R/29I you used for yesterday and it almost works perfectly to the 48% again. Either there’s a lot more Obama phones out there than anyone knows or somebody sucks at polling.

gsherin on October 1, 2012 at 10:23 AM

The reader/listener/watcher is not the Market. He/She is the product being manipulated into [or in the current election, out of] the voting booth. If you are in a floating craps game [a passable description of the American political system as it has evolved and stands now] and look around and cannot figure out who the ‘mark’ is …… it’s you.

Subotai Bahadur on September 30, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Great comment reintroduced today and something that we all should keep in mind always. It reinforces my and everybody else’s view here to not be taken in by the anything but subtle manipulations, not only of the polls, but of virtually every news story the MSM spits out.

The media is the enemy and should be treated as such.

PatriotGal2257 on October 1, 2012 at 10:28 AM

The phrase of the day is false precision.

That only 9% of those polled are responding is just incredibly devastating — that means the polls are essentially worthless, with that kind of massive, systemic sampling problem they can’t really be said to be accurate to within less than 10% or so. And note that this is a new problem — response rates were four times higher only 15 years ago.

Which is too bad for Romney, because right now the polls say he’s winning (you can just ignore topline and DRI — whoever is winning independents is winning the election).

TallDave on October 1, 2012 at 10:41 AM

First and foremost, none of the polling right now is worth much. Past polling hasn’t coalesced to a point of accuracy (when it was accurate) until the final week before the election and it is not unusual for polls to swing significantly right before an election, usually in a direction away from the incumbent, when the economy is struggling. Second, the ever declining participation rate is a real problem for pollsters. They cannot determine if the 9% who participate are representative of the 91% who don’t. They simply assume that they are. Four years ago, the participation rate was double what it is now. Eight years ago, it was almost three times what it is now. And, considering the higher degree of mistrust that Romney supporters have right now in the media and in the polls, a reasonable assumption is that the 91% is populated with more Romney voters than with Obama voters. That said, there is simply no way of measuring the actual makeup and of the 91% or the representativeness of the 9%. Polling, as a science, depends on assumptions. Since these assumptions are sometimes wrong, the pollsters are periodically wrong and need to realign their assumptions in order to be closer to reality in the future. In my opinion, we are in uncharted territory when it come to polling accuracy for this election. The pollsters continue to put on a confident game face, in order to sell their product. But they understand the problems associated with the volatility that they are seeing in poll results. My guess is that the polls will begin to move toward Romney in the final days before the election, simply because he is not the incumbent during tough economic times. When you combine this entirely reasonable assumption with the likely oversampling of Obama supporters in the polls, the possibility of a Romney win, perhaps even a landslide, looks to be the more likely outcome in November. So, unless Obama can pull some type of historically unlikely rabbit out of his hat this November, he will most likely be a one-term President.

NuclearPhysicist on October 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

When we were called here in Ohio, they asked how we would be voting, when I said Republican, they said thank you and hung up. Their not polling us their only polling the Dem’s……..

angrymike on October 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

“Which is too bad for Romney, because right now the polls say he’s winning (you can just ignore topline and DRI — whoever is winning independents is winning the election).

TallDave on October 1, 2012 at 10:41 AM”

That means Obama is winning the election since he’s winning independents, if you believe Rasmussen.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 10:45 AM

This won’t help the narrative

http://unskewedpolls.com/dailytrackingpoll.cfm

NextGen on October 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I looked at today’s swing state poll and used the same 40D/31R/29I you used for yesterday and it almost works perfectly to the 48% again. Either there’s a lot more Obama phones out there than anyone knows or somebody sucks at polling.

gsherin on October 1, 2012 at 10:23 AM

I am glad that you did the math and came up with similar results…
Anyone who uses D+9 in his polling sample is making a huge mistake whether it is intentional due to extreme bias as most of the media are doing in their polls or just plain stupid… I am very surprised that Rasmussen is doing this crap… Anyway D+3 is going to be the worst case scenario this elections and most probably it is going to be D=R…

If you interested I made this “Poll adjustment Calculator” that you can download from this link below:

http://www.fileconvoy.com/dfl.php?id=gcf55cd8784c07eef151743a1b276dd9edc123d

The first section is to enter the results from a media poll, including % of democrats, % of Republicans, % of Independents, enter % Obama, % Romney, % Undecided, % Others for each of these groups ( i.e. demorats, Republicans, Independents)…

The second section is to adjust the % democrats, % Republicans, % of Independents to match a more realistic elections turnout for each group. The worst case scenario would be democrats + 3% over Republicans but most likely scenario this elections id D=R. Make sure that when you do the adjustments for each of these group that they add to 100%.

The third section is the assignment of the % of undecided to each Romney and Obama. So you need to enter the % of undecided for Romney and those for Obama. Historically the undecided go 2:1 for the challenger…

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

That means Obama is winning the election since he’s winning independents, if you believe Rasmussen.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 10:45 AM

And Romney has been winning the independents in the majority of the polls including Rasmussen and including Rasmussen from yesterday and the day before…

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Well I want to be positive, but these polls suck…Obama should be behind by 10 pts. minimum, but in stead he’s ahead in every single one.I’d like to think that they are all wrong, but it’s getting harder. That being said,it seems like when Obama wasn’t “surging” a couple weeks ago the polls starting moving his way. Almost like the “pollsters” themselves are giving him his “surge.”Trying to depress the Republican vote I guess…

sandee on October 1, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Remember the NEW DATA, folks—that only 9% of the American population is “cooperating” with the pollsters!!! That alone, will affect the polls and the “skewering” of polls! I rather doubt that the 9% can really speak for “all of American voters!”

DixT on October 1, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Rasmussen today has Obama +6 (51-45) in the swing states, so it looks very possible that Obama is doing better there than nationally. And it makes sense since his ads run non-stop there.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:34 AM

…poll…pole…gummeandpokeme…poll…pole…gummeandpokeme…pole..poll…pole…poll…gummeandpoleme…poll…pole…poll…gummeandpokeme…poll…pole..poll…

KOOLAID2 on October 1, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Well I want to be positive, but these polls suck…Obama should be behind by 10 pts. minimum, but in stead he’s ahead in every single one.I’d like to think that they are all wrong, but it’s getting harder. That being said,it seems like when Obama wasn’t “surging” a couple weeks ago the polls starting moving his way. Almost like the “pollsters” themselves are giving him his “surge.”Trying to depress the Republican vote I guess…

sandee on October 1, 2012 at 11:05 AM

It’s extremely difficult to knock off an incumbent, especially one that is still (inexplicably) personally popular and beloved by the media. He’s also a very good campaigner and fundraiser.

But, Romney’s still got a shot. Don’t despair…instead, use it as motivation to make calls for Romney, to drag everyone you can to the polls. That’s what will make the difference.

changer1701 on October 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Without the breakdowns in demographics, polls are trash. They are basically trash anyway, but at least with the demographics you can sort through and see if any of it is any good.

Oh, and this looks VERY coordinated in that an Obama adviser said, “Don’t look at the national polls, look at the swing states” and then like magic Obama went ahead BIG in the swing states.

What a coincidence!

UnderstandingisPower on October 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Distract….with polls!

Keep our eyes on the REAL news, kids! Economy, Fast and Furious, Libya, Egypt, Israel, drilling, First and Second Amendment, repeal of Obamacare……

…..the media has a shiny new toy so you don’t look at the other issues.

herm2416 on October 1, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Without the breakdowns in demographics, polls are trash. They are basically trash anyway, but at least with the demographics you can sort through and see if any of it is any good.

Oh, and this looks VERY coordinated in that an Obama adviser said, “Don’t look at the national polls, look at the swing states” and then like magic Obama went ahead BIG in the swing states.

What a coincidence!

UnderstandingisPower on October 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Good point and don’t forget to analyze the sampling statistics because most media polls are mathematical garbage.

This article regarding who participates in these polls is also enlightening: http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/

rplat on October 1, 2012 at 11:47 AM

In order to have swing states “in the bag for Obama” – the variable must be heavily manipulated to compensate for the % total of those swing delegates – per so-called “polling”

As Ed mentioned – the non swing states in the bag for Bambi – with high electorate %’s – like California, NY, Illinois factored in – nationally up by 2, though up by 11 in Florida, Ohio, Virginia tells me there is some serious manipulation out of desperation for the Dems and their polling within these swing states.

There is no way in hell Florida goes Bambi – I dont care what nonsense polls say at this point. IN the same manner polls had Christ +/- 2 behind Rubio – though he got smoked by 19%.

Dems need to lie in Florida namely – to carry the water for the meme “Romney/Ryan will kill grandma/grandpa” – regardless of the fact polls have that meme losing to those 55+ – specifically in Florida.

1980 BS Poll Redux – been saying it for 6 months now.

Odie1941 on October 1, 2012 at 12:14 PM

I’ll never understand voters. In Rasmussen poll, it shows 0 with 49% approval and 50% saying they will vote for him. These numbers are increasing for 0, I guess because of the recent wonderful employment news along with 0′s great success in foreign affairs.

Oleta on October 1, 2012 at 12:16 PM

I’m a little skeptical that Romney could be losing by eleven in the swing states but only by two nationwide.

I am glad you pointed this out.

Fleuries on October 1, 2012 at 1:10 PM

It’s still pretty close. I have to wonder if Romney can really convince any more people than he already has. I think the Americans who still believe in Obama after these last 4 years are stuck on stupid and reaching them will be impossible. Romney can still win though, if he can win on turnout. The enthusiasm factor might win it for him if he can get the extra turnout of conservatives he needs or if Obama’s vote is suppressed. We have to get our butts to the polls to save America this time. VOTE VOTE VOTE

Dollayo on October 1, 2012 at 1:46 PM

1) Trust in the media is at an all time low, especially among independents and conservatives. These polls have media names on them, trust will be way down.

2) 9% participation rate is horrible.

3) Given that, get your conservative friends/neighbors/relatives to the polls on November 6! Make sure they all know all polling is bogus, and it’s their vote that matters. If they say it doesn’t, remind them that after NUMEROUS media reviews after the election, Florida went to Bush by between 375 and 400 votes. Their vote does matter!

That being said, I hope the next month I see all that Romney money on TV. I haven’t seen a Romney or other GOP ad on any national broadcast in weeks.

And let us all pray that these polls aren’t the cause of an Obama win, or used by his supporters to claim fraud and create massive unrest. Either would be horrible for our future.

PastorJon on October 1, 2012 at 1:49 PM

What feels likely is that Romney is *killing* in the former confederacy and not doing too badly in New Hampshire, Connecticut, Vermont or Maine even compared to most national Republicans in recent years because of his New England roots. But the actual campaigning is happening in swing states, and while the Death Star seems to be effective in rallying the troops, we should remember…the Death Star gets blown up at the end by the alliance. That seems to be what Obama an co are doing in the swing states.

libfreeordie on October 1, 2012 at 1:51 PM

libfreeordie on October 1, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Racist. Too bad you’re a professor.

Schadenfreude on October 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

What feels likely is that Romney is *killing* in the former confederacy … and while the Death Star seems to be effective in rallying the troops, we should remember…the Death Star gets blown up at the end by the alliance. …”

libfreeordie on October 1, 2012 at 1:51 PM

This is why you lack credibility. You base outcomes on feelings and movie plots. You know you could probably take statistics courses for free, right?

Mitsouko on October 1, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Per WaPo: Entire swing state sample was 160 people, with 8 point margin of error:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/the-polls-show-a-race-that-is-still-up-for-grabs/2012/10/01/57b1d8a2-0be1-11e2-bd1a-b868e65d57eb_blog.html

blue13326 on October 1, 2012 at 3:33 PM

libfreeordie on October 1, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Former confederacy?

Dude, you’re a cliche’.

itsspideyman on October 1, 2012 at 3:38 PM

NRO Corner now reporting that WAPO admitting the poll is bunk — 8 point margin of error!

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/328967/wapo-doesnt-mention-poll-showing-romney-down-double-digits-has-8-point-margin-error-ka

2ndMAW68 on October 1, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Polls – telling us what the 9% of people contacted willing to give information to total strangers are thinking.

Makes you wonder what the other 91% that won’t talk to pollsters are thinking.

ajacksonian on October 1, 2012 at 4:45 PM

New CNN poll has Obama up 50%-47% among likely voters.

Sample is Dem +8.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Does that make a damn bit of sense? They’re tied nationally, but in the “swing” states, by definiton the most evenly divided, Obama has a big lead?

In 2008, Obama won Ohio by 4.6%. But today he’s up by 10, despite losing among independents and a decline in Democrat registration? Where are those extra Obama votes coming from? Republicans?

That simply is not possible.

Jingo95 on October 1, 2012 at 5:19 PM

161 voters were in the 8 swing states in this poll

gerrym51 on October 1, 2012 at 5:36 PM

The media is the enemy and should be treated as such.

PatriotGal2257 on October 1, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Yes. I have no doubt they are even willing to completely fabricate a poll to help him. Look they are willing to completely ignore the death of a US Ambassador and all the other Embassies under siege. Why is it so hard to believe they would lie by commission if they are willing to lie by omission?

They have been fabricating poll results for over a month, it’s not a stretch to believe they are fabricating the whole thing.

All the real information we have shows just the opposite of what they are telling us. R&R attract huge crowds. Zero has to move his speech indoors to avoid being embarrassed.

Remember 2010?
Scott Brown?
Scott Walker?

The dems have lost big every time it counted. They are only doing this in a vain attempt to deligitimize Romney’s win and they will become more shrill until Nov 7. Then they will go into attack mode hyperdrive.

dogsoldier on October 1, 2012 at 5:42 PM

2ndMAW68 on October 1, 2012 at 4:28 PM
gerrym51 on October 1, 2012 at 5:36 PM

So they DID FABRICATE IT. That poll is FAKE.

dogsoldier on October 1, 2012 at 5:45 PM

New CNN poll has Obama up 50%-47% among likely voters.

Sample is Dem +8.

daveyandgoliath on October 1, 2012 at 4:52 PM

John Hinderaker @ Power Line:

So today’s CNN/ORC poll has Obama’s lead cut in half, to three points. Does that mean that Romney is surging? Not really. It means they didn’t call quite as many Democrats. This time, the pollsters gave us the partisan breakdown of their sample: D-37%, R-29% and I-34%. So when the partisan gap in the sample narrowed from D +12 to D +8, Romney did three points better. Well, yeah.

Is either of these sample compositions plausible as a representation of the 2012 electorate? Plainly not. Currently, Scott Rasmussen finds that more voters identify themselves as Republicans than Democrats, and all surveys report that intensity is at least as high among Republicans as among Democrats this year. So who could possibly believe that there will be 8% more Democrats than Republicans at the polls in November?

Polls like the ones conducted by CNN and ORC are useful primarily as an indicator of which party’s members are more likely to answer their telephones when they are called by strangers.

Happy Viewing!

Del Dolemonte on October 1, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Noel Sheppard @ NewsBusters, re. this WaPo “poll”:

The media were all atwitter Monday over a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finding President Obama eleven points ahead of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in key swing states.

Within 90 minutes of the Post’s Jennifer Rubin exposing that the margin of error in the poll was – wait for it! – an astonishing eight points, the paper felt the need to publish a new piece explaining the whole thing.

An 8 point MOE? Simply hallucinogenic.

F—–

Del Dolemonte on October 1, 2012 at 5:57 PM

“Remember 2010?
Scott Brown?
Scott Walker?”

You mean the polls in the last month that nailed the elections?

Final Results – – 51.8 47.1 Brown +4.7
Politico/InAdv 1/17 – 1/17 804 LV 52 43 Brown +9
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/17 – 1/17 574 LV 52 42 Brown +10
PPP (D) 1/16 – 1/17 1231 LV 51 46 Brown +5
ARG 1/15 – 1/17 600 LV 52 45 Brown +7
R2000/Daily Kos (D) 1/15 – 1/17 500 LV 48 48 Tie
InsideMedford/MRG 1/15 – 1/15 565 LV 51 41 Brown +10
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/14 – 1/14 946 LV 54 39 Brown +15
ARG 1/12 – 1/14 600 LV 48 45 Brown +3
Blue Mass Group/R2000 (D) 1/12 – 1/13 500 LV 41 49 Coakley +8
Suffolk/7News 1/11 – 1/13 500 LV 50 46 Brown +4
Rasmussen Reports 1/11 – 1/11 1000 LV 47 49 Coakley +2
PPP (D) 1/7 – 1/9 744 LV 48 47 Brown +1
Rasmussen Reports 1/4 – 1/4 500 LV 41 50 Coakley +9
Boston Globe 1/2 – 1/6 554 LV 36 53 Coakley +17
Suffolk 11/4 – 11/8 600 RV 27 58 Coakley +31
Western NE College 10/18 – 10/22 342 LV 32 58 Coakley +26
Suffolk 9/12 – 9/15 500 RV 24 54 Coakley +30

Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WeAskAmerica 5/23 – 5/23 1409 LV 54 42 Walker +12
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5
Daily Kos/PPP (D) 5/11 – 5/13 LV 50 45 Walker +5
WeAskAmerica 5/13 – 5/13 1219 LV 52 43 Walker +9
Marquette University 5/9 – 5/12 600 LV 50 44 Walker +6
Rasmussen Reports 5/9 – 5/9 500 LV 50 45 Walker +5
Marquette University 4/26 – 4/29 561 LV 48 47 Walker +1
Daily Kos/PPP (D) 4/13 – 4/15 1136 LV 50 45 Walker +5
Marquette University 3/22 – 3/25 707 RV 47 45 Walker +2
PPP (D) 2/23 – 2/26 900 RV 46 49 Barrett +3
Marquette University 1/19 – 1/22 701 RV 50 44 Walker +6
PPP (D) 10/20 – 10/23 1170 RV 48 46 Walker +2
PPP (D) 8/12 – 8/14 830 RV 47 48 Barrett +1

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 6:14 PM

It’s interesting how so many of you say “remember Reagan in 80″ and he led from mid Sept on, “remember Walker” and he was almost always ahead, and now “remember Scott Brown” and he was solidly ahead for the last month.

Do any of you have some examples where the trailing candidate actually WON on election day?

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 6:17 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Um nope the elections. But I remember those suffolk polls for Marcia.

The only one I paid any attention to were the number of people that showed up to see her and Zero as opposed to those waiting to see Brown. I’ve mentioned it a few times.

Do any of you have some examples where the trailing candidate actually WON on election day?

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Which is why you know Obama is going to lose. In reality he’s way behind. The WaPo is so panicked they went all in and made up a fake poll to try to help him LOL!

dogsoldier on October 1, 2012 at 6:32 PM

daveyandgoliath on October 1, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Did you even bother to read what your were cutting and pasting re. the Brown/Coakley “polls” before you put it up? Certainly doesn’t help your “argument”.

According to what you cut and pasted, Scott Brown was in fact losing in the final “polls” done by the NY Times owned Boston Globe, as well as those done by BlueMA and Rasmussen. I’m still laughing my getalife off at that Globe “poll”, which showed Brown losing by 17. Too funny.

Do any of you have some examples where the trailing candidate actually WON on election day?

daveyandgoliath on October 1, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Above. Thanks for playing!

Del Dolemonte on October 1, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Speaking of Scott Brown, he will be commencing his second drop-kicking of Princess Rain In the Puss at 7 PM EDT on C SPIN.

Del Dolemonte on October 1, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 1, 2012 at 6:35 PM

And thats what the local TV stations were trumpeting too. The last one I heard had Marcia up by 6.

I don’t remember Reagan being ahead until after the historic landslide. I will look into it though. Back then pollsters had some credibility. Rass may try, but we’ve had a huge culture shift since then. Cellphones and internet for example.

dogsoldier on October 1, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Del Dolemonte on October 1, 2012 at 6:38 PM

That should be EPIC! Especially after last week’s revelations…

dogsoldier on October 1, 2012 at 6:43 PM

hmm I wonder if AP will do an open thread for the debate…

dogsoldier on October 1, 2012 at 6:44 PM

It’s interesting how so many of you say “remember Reagan in 80″ and he led from mid Sept on, “remember Walker” and he was almost always ahead, and now “remember Scott Brown” and he was solidly ahead for the last month.

Do any of you have some examples where the trailing candidate actually WON on election day?

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 6:17 PM

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/flashback-gallup-had-carter-up-4-points-over-ronald-reagan-in-september-1980

Reagan was behind in late October.

Exit polls in the Scott Walker race show the opponent within 3. Walker wins by 7, blowing past the margin of error.

http://www.rightpundits.com/?p=10175

This supports a 4-5% error when polling…….

itsspideyman on October 1, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Paul Ryan on Laura Ingraham’s radio show this morning said that Obama has a 2 to 1 advantage in television ads in Ohio. No wonder polls are showing Obama ahead. Where the hell is all this campaign money that Romney supposedly has available? Get in the game now! It may already be too late, even if Romney has a good debate performance!

Decoski on October 1, 2012 at 7:03 PM

“Paul Ryan on Laura Ingraham’s radio show this morning said that Obama has a 2 to 1 advantage in television ads in Ohio. No wonder polls are showing Obama ahead. Where the hell is all this campaign money that Romney supposedly has available? Get in the game now! It may already be too late, even if Romney has a good debate performance!

Decoski on October 1, 2012 at 7:03 PM”

Mark Belling said today on his radio show that it looks like Romney/Ryan have written off WI due to the lack of ads here.

And I’ve said before that the lack of ads from Romney/campaign money stories will be written immediately after the election as part of the post-mortem on the failed Romney bid.

John McCain even seemed to run more ads despite taking public financing…and better ads…the “celebrity” spot was fantastic.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 7:13 PM

“Exit polls in the Scott Walker race show the opponent within 3. Walker wins by 7, blowing past the margin of error.”

The RCP average was nearly exact in it’s prediction. If you looked at RCP a day before the election, you knew who would win and by how much.

“According to what you cut and pasted, Scott Brown was in fact losing in the final “polls” done by the NY Times owned Boston Globe, as well as those done by BlueMA and Rasmussen. I’m still laughing my getalife off at that Globe “poll”, which showed Brown losing by 17. Too funny.”

These were the polls in the final week. Nobody could look at them and think Brown wasn’t as shoe-in…

Politico/InAdv 1/17 – 1/17 804 LV 52 43 Brown +9
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/17 – 1/17 574 LV 52 42 Brown +10
PPP (D) 1/16 – 1/17 1231 LV 51 46 Brown +5
ARG 1/15 – 1/17 600 LV 52 45 Brown +7
R2000/Daily Kos (D) 1/15 – 1/17 500 LV 48 48 Tie
InsideMedford/MRG 1/15 – 1/15 565 LV 51 41 Brown +10
PJM/CrossTarget (R) 1/14 – 1/14 946 LV 54 39 Brown +15
ARG 1/12 – 1/14 600 LV 48 45 Brown +3
Blue Mass Group/R2000 (D) 1/12 – 1/13 500 LV 41 49 Coakley +8
Suffolk/7News 1/11 – 1/13 500 LV 50 46 Brown +4
Rasmussen Reports 1/11 – 1/11 1000 LV 47 49 Coakley +2

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 7:18 PM

“I don’t remember Reagan being ahead until after the historic landslide. I will look into it though.”

Besides the fact that Reagan was leading in some polls, Carter’s numbers were far below Obama’s, often in the 45% range, even when ahead. Obama is at 50%, which is all he needs to win. He’s basically already won, unless he has a terrible debate, and the election resets, as in 04.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

I heard something else odd…I heard that in that poll the people who were undecided were very anti Obama…I heard a little about this on Rush…apparently only 16% of undecideds were leaning toward Obama.

Maybe the swing states are not actually the swing states..or maybe the polling is off. I don’t know…but if things are tight nationally there should not be a big gap in the swing states.

Terrye on October 1, 2012 at 7:26 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

blah blah blah blah blah

Terrye on October 1, 2012 at 7:27 PM

gumby…moron. I remember when Carter was running against Reagan and yes, he was ahead until very late. I don’t care what after the fact you come up with some blog, I can actually remember that election. I am 61 years old.

Terrye on October 1, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Besides the fact that Reagan was leading in some polls, Carter’s numbers were far below Obama’s, often in the 45% range, even when ahead. Obama is at 50%, which is all he needs to win. He’s basically already won, unless he has a terrible debate, and the election resets, as in 04.

http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/debunking-a-myth-reagan-was-leading-carter-long-before-that-final-october-debate/

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

That wasn’t the point.

You said Reagan was in the lead, and Reagan was behind by as much as 8 points.

Here it is again:

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/flashback-gallup-had-carter-up-4-points-over-ronald-reagan-in-september-1980

Reagan was behind in late October.

itsspideyman on October 1, 2012 at 8:51 PM

What does it take to ban this gumpyandpockey? What is the mechanism?

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 10:14 AM

A kiln.

Myron Falwell on October 1, 2012 at 10:20 PM

The Gallup Poll (which was the big poll back then) had Carter up by 8 over Reagan on Oct. 28.

blue13326 on October 1, 2012 at 10:31 PM


Where the hell is all this campaign money that Romney supposedly has available?

As a business-person, Romney has to understand that you don’t throw good money after bad: Romney Losing Donors to GOP House, Senate Candidates.

Romney’s own small base of donors know that Team Romney is dead in the water. They’re played. They’ve got nothing left. The question is when are you going to wake up and smell Team Romney’s self-immolation?

casuist on October 2, 2012 at 8:06 AM

New CNN poll has Obama up 50%-47% among likely voters.

Sample is Dem +8.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 4:52 PM

This doesn’t help your case. With D+8, Obama should be up more, but he isn’t. This tells me that Obama is getting killed with independents, so when the actual breakdown comes out showing Dems +3 or lower, Romney will be up 3 – 4 points and maybe more.

The MSM is being shown for the hacks they are now. When this is done, and if Romney wins, every one of these liberal polling organizations like CNN and PPP, etc. who are in the tank for Obama and who are trying to shape public opinion and depress GOP turnout should be investigated by Congress. They have violated their constitutional mandate of merely informing the public to actually advocating for the Dems.

I agree with those posters who think you should be banned. Your trolling is embarrassing. Shoo.

conservativemusician on October 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

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