CNN poll: Obama’s bounce gone, race now statistically tied

posted at 7:21 pm on October 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

In CNN’s last poll, taken soon after the Democratic convention, O led by six among likely voters. That lead’s now cut in half, to within the margin of error, despite weeks of media doomsaying about Romney’s campaign. In fact, the last four national polls all have the race within two or three points with a bounce opportunity for Romney looming 48 hours from now. I think the first debate will essentially be an audition for him: Obama’s the ultimate known quantity but, for millions of low-information voters, this’ll be the first time they see Romney in action. If he’s as composed and articulate as he was in the GOP primary debates, he’s bound to see some positive movement among undecideds regardless of what Obama does.

Even more encouraging here: As our Greenroomer Karl pointed out on Twitter, Obama’s lead among registered voters (50/46) is almost identical to his lead among likely voters (50/47), which means there isn’t much difference in the partisan split between the two samples. That’s unusual; typically a sample of likelies is a few points more Republican than a sample of registereds. So, if anything, CNN might be underestimating just how well Romney’s doing right now. Also, note that not only does Romney lead by eight among CNN’s (tiny) sample of independents, but his support from Republicans is even more solid than Obama’s support from the Democrats:

There must be a decent Democratic lean in the overall sample of likely voters (which CNN doesn’t publish) to produce that result. (Update: Yep. See below.) The money question, then: What’s causing the race to tighten? Is it a natural phenomenon as more casual voters start to pay attention? Is it, as CNN’s pollster suggests, a case of Obama’s post-convention bounce disappearing? Or is it public disgust with the Foreign Policy President’s performance on Libya? Here are the numbers on FP, where O’s lead is down five points from last month:

Suggestive, but not proof that that’s what’s driving this. Let’s see if we can find decline in any of his other numbers. How about … this?

Romney had a big lead initially, then it shrank after the conventions, and now it’s ballooning again. More:

Another huge fade as the convention recedes. I think CNN’s right: O got a bounce, which was possibly extended a bit past its normal shelf life by the “47 percent” kerfuffle, and now Americans are remembering that they don’t much like him without Bill Clinton on TV to convince them that they do. In fact, Obama’s favorable numbers are now nearly the same as Romney’s, 52/48 for The One and 49/50 for Mitt with possible movement to come on that Wednesday night. Most damning of all, check out his job approval — and note how long it’s been since he was this close to the water line:

That makes me think there’s more to this than just a fading bounce. Exit question: What’s happening here? Libya backlash, normal October tightening, or an early sign that undecideds are finally ready to pass on another four years of Hopenchange dreck?

Update: An oversight on my part: CNN did publish the partisan split this time, on page 15 — and it’s D+8 (37D/29R/34I). The turnout on election day 2008 was only D+7, and nobody but nobody thinks O will approach that this year. So this poll looks even better for Romney than I thought.


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Barackabama up to 269 electoral votes on RCP’s map. They moved New Hampshire over to “Lean Obama” thanks to a +15 poll for Barackabama from WMUR…

SouthernGent on October 1, 2012 at 7:23 PM

“So, if anything, CNN might be underestimating just how well Romney’s doing right now…”

They don’t want their boyfriend to get upset…

Seven Percent Solution on October 1, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Bishop!

& Statistically Insignificant

PolAgnostic on October 1, 2012 at 7:24 PM

In other words you are in deep dog crap, dog eating dog eater incumbent.

Bishop on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Romney will win this election.

This incumbent has a very poor approval rating.

The economy is in shambles. Gas prices are high, and folks recognize these things.

blatantblue on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

I’m so dizzy. Is this good news or bad news?

aunursa on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

AP,

what’s the problem. you actually seem UPBEAT.

must be something you drank.

and for everyone else BISHOP!

gerrym51 on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Very surprising that not that we are getting closer to the pollsters credibility window that the polls are tightening again. What a shock.

besser tot als rot on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Exit question: What’s happening here? Libya backlash, normal October tightening, or an early sign that undecideds are finally ready to pass on another four years of Hopenchange dreck?

Lots of chickens that we shouldn’t be counting. Statistical noise, and the state polling is as biased as ever.

KingGold on October 1, 2012 at 7:26 PM

UNEXPECTEDLY

Tim_CA on October 1, 2012 at 7:26 PM

the real story here is the Sample size, which only produces Obama +3.

the

“Among thoselikely voters, 37% described themselves as Democrats, 34% described themselves as Independents, and 29% described themselves as Republicans”

D +8 with record low R turnout for their ‘sample’

jp on October 1, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Ap, according to Ace the split is D+8.

opustx on October 1, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Must go eat my wife’s fried chicken …

… but just a brief note …

Pollsters have to worry about unemployment if their soothsaying is overwhelmed by reality.

PolAgnostic on October 1, 2012 at 7:27 PM

The money question, then: What’s causing the race to tighten? Is it a natural phenomenon as more casual voters start to pay attention? Is it, as CNN’s pollster suggests, a case of Obama’s post-convention bounce disappearing? Or is it public disgust with the Foreign Policy President’s performance on Libya?

The cause? The date (October) and credibility.

besser tot als rot on October 1, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Very surprising that not that we are getting closer to the pollsters credibility window that the polls are tightening again. What a shock.

besser tot als rot on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Same ol’ Sh!t, just a differen’t election.

(What is it now 2012 already?)

Tim_CA on October 1, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Time for the polls to make it look like Obama needs your help. Get out and vote! That wascal Womney could still win this thing!

J.E. Dyer on October 1, 2012 at 7:28 PM

we won’t mention this poll
-morning joe and the rest of msdnc

cmsinaz on October 1, 2012 at 7:30 PM

I really hope Mitt is ready for anything at these debates. If Obama’s head splits open and a UFO flies out, I want him to have expected it.

Kataklysmic on October 1, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Time for the polls to make it look like Obama needs your help. Get out and vote! That wascal Womney could still win this thing!

J.E. Dyer on October 1, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Not just that, but get ready for another hidden video to surface..

Static21 on October 1, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Benghazi gave a bunch of morons lots of religion.

Univision is doing a heck of a job.

Viva Venezuela libre!!!

Sunday s/b fun in South America.

Nov. 6 will be a hoot.

p.s. the joy might be short lived, but my will it be schadenfreudig.

Schadenfreude on October 1, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Just another CNN set up poll so that after the first debate they show Obama jumping way, way, way ahead in the polls.

albill on October 1, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Static21 on October 1, 2012 at 7:32 PM

guaranteed

cmsinaz on October 1, 2012 at 7:33 PM

I don’t care if we suddenly had a poll that had Romney up 10 or 15 points, I don’t believe any polls right now and it’s hard to get excited about any of them.

I have poll-fatigue. I groan every time I see a new Hotair post on the subject.

Just show up and vote on Election Day, people, and don’t pay any attention to all this polling nonsense. I’m hoping I’m done with it.

Corporal Tunnel on October 1, 2012 at 7:34 PM

On the other hand, Drudge is reporting military ballots down as much as 90% in Ohio and Virginia. Anyone with family in the military must go viral with ANY delay in receiving ballots. The problem is that Obama’s people will drag their feet and I wouldn’t put it past them to use intimidation and threats to prevent the military from voting. Them Dems WILL cheat.

idalily on October 1, 2012 at 7:36 PM

If the Sample size was closer to say, D+1 Romney would have a big lead

jp on October 1, 2012 at 7:37 PM

I am SURE gumbyissohokey will be here soon to straighten this all out.

CW on October 1, 2012 at 7:37 PM

The WaPo-ABC ‘swing state’ poll numbers, explained

Monday’s Washington Post-ABC News poll adds to the evidence of an emerging, important dynamic in the presidential contest showing closer parity nationally than in key battleground states, where President Obama has had clear leads.

The designated swing states were: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and Wisconsin

Pulling out respondents in these eight states — all of which Obama won in 2008 — from the new national poll, shows Obama at 52 percent and Romney at 41 among likely voters. We report these numbers to help connect the dots between the clear Obama leads in the collection of states and the continued closer parity nationally, not to suggest pinpoint precision on what’s happening now in any particular state.

Out of 929 registered voters in the new poll, 161 live in one of these eight states, with a margin of sampling error of eight points. The likely voter sample in these states is about nine points, making the 11-point gap an apparent edge. That margin is significant at the 80 percent confidence level, not a standard, conservative 95 percent threshold

This wholly unreliable subset is the basis for inclusion in an otherwise credible national survey. This has to be one of the more embarrassing media contortions by the media to put Obama in the most favorable light possible. Remember, they are not journalists who vote for Democrats. They are open advocates for one candidate.

WTHeck? 161 people in each state. D.E.S.P.E.R.A.T.E.

SouthernGent on October 1, 2012 at 7:38 PM

What’s happening here? Libya backlash, normal October tightening, or an early sign that undecideds are finally ready to pass on another four years of Hopenchange dreck?

Push back from conservative bloggers who busted and then ridiculed the enemidia for flat out lying for their Lie Candy.

burrata on October 1, 2012 at 7:40 PM

I just did a Survey last week here’s the results:

Independants: Romney 68% Obama 32%

Republicans: Romney 91% Obama 8% 1$% someone else

Democrats: Romeny 11% Obama 88%

Total: Obama 95% Romney 4% 1% someone else

Varchild on October 1, 2012 at 7:40 PM

How about that?

ctmom on October 1, 2012 at 7:41 PM

I’m so dizzy. Is this good news or bad news?

aunursa on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Me too. Although, I am not even sure Allahpundit really wrote the post as it sounds far too upbeat for him.

earlgrey133 on October 1, 2012 at 7:41 PM

…should I be proactive?…and do this before he gets here?…ok I will!

…poll…pole…poll…mustbeonthepot…pole…poll…pole…pickingmynose…poll…pole…poll…pole…poll…

gummeandpokeme on October 1, 2012 beforehand

KOOLAID2 on October 1, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Hey, maybe this thing is not over after all.

Terrye on October 1, 2012 at 7:44 PM

I don’t care if polls show Romney down by 50 right now..as long as he wins 6Nov…

Static21 on October 1, 2012 at 7:45 PM

And all of a sudden polls matter in Conservativistan!

lester on October 1, 2012 at 7:45 PM

SouthernGent on October 1, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Yep, the RCP poll aggregator & map is full of cr@p.

22044 on October 1, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Just wait for the next PEW poll where they will sample not 180 democrats for every 100 Republicans, but 280 democrats for every 100 Republicans and Dear Leader will be leading by double digits.

VorDaj on October 1, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Lie Candy.

burrata on October 1, 2012 at 7:40 PM

lol….and stealing this.

Tim_CA on October 1, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Time for the polls to start getting realistic as we get closer to election day.

And by the way, does exit polling really mean anything anymore when we have mail in ballots and early voting? Just wondering.

COgirl on October 1, 2012 at 7:48 PM

WTHeck? 161 people in each state. D.E.S.P.E.R.A.T.E.

SouthernGent on October 1, 2012 at 7:38 PM

No, it’s even worse than that. It’s only 161 people from all of those swing states combined.

Mark1971 on October 1, 2012 at 7:48 PM

As I was out and about today, I did see some R&R buttons and a few bumper stickers, and just one O bumper sticker…lol, and guess what, she drove a Prius!! Go figure…

Scrumpy on October 1, 2012 at 7:48 PM

And all of a sudden polls matter in Conservativistan!

lester on October 1, 2012 at 7:45 PM

As usual your simplistic drivel. You have nothing. Public school kid I bet.

CW on October 1, 2012 at 7:49 PM

TEA PARTY POISED TO GIVE OBAMA THE BOOT!
A new poll shows that a whopping 31% of likely voters this year are TEA PARTY supporters. That translates into around 41 million Tea Party VOTES. This made a difference in 2010, and in Wisconsin w
hen Governor Scott Walker needed help. Now the same poll says only 19% of likely voters identify as DEVOUT LIBERALS….that means about 25 million liberals voting for Obama. SIXTEEN MILLION SHORT! THE TEA PARTY CAN GIVE OBAMA HIS WALKING PAPERS!!!!!!

DanaSmiles on October 1, 2012 at 7:52 PM

If this is the best CNN can produce for Barry with a D+8 sample, I’d say Mittens and Paul Ryan can have this thing wrapped up be next Thursday.

Doughboy on October 1, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Wasn’t it lib4free or GuppyPoker who said Ras will soon have to fall in line with the current D+11ty media polls? Well, it looks like the media polls are starting to fall in behind Rasmussen. Tough luck, bro.

Sekhmet on October 1, 2012 at 7:54 PM

I just saw the headline and haven’t read any of the comments but weren’t we told last week that Obama had already won?

Cindy Munford on October 1, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Yahoo/AP just told me that all the states are set in stone already. Bummer.

tomas on October 1, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I’m so dizzy. Is this good news or bad news?

aunursa on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Looks good to me. With a more realistic sample, say D+3 (which is what Rasmussen expects it to be nationally on Election Day), Romney would be up about 2 in this poll.

Right Mover on October 1, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I just did a Survey last week here’s the results:

Independants: Romney 68% Obama 32%

Republicans: Romney 91% Obama 8% 1$% someone else

Democrats: Romeny 11% Obama 88%

Total: Obama 95% Romney 4% 1% someone else

Varchild on October 1, 2012 at 7:40 PM

You should post your results at Huffpo and Kos. They would absolutely eat it up.

predator on October 1, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I just saw the headline and haven’t read any of the comments but weren’t we told last week that Obama had already won?

Cindy Munford on October 1, 2012 at 7:56 PM

In the Joy Behar poll of “people I personally know,” that is in fact correct.

predator on October 1, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Polls, schmolls. Tired of the polls. I’m waiting on election day. That’s my poll.

Philly on October 1, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Update: An oversight on my part: CNN did publish the partisan split this time, on page 15 — and it’s D+8 (37D/29R/34I). The turnout on election day 2008 was only D+7, and nobody but nobody thinks O will approach that this year. So this poll looks even better for Romney than I thought.

Holy. F’in’. WOW.

This poll is nothing but pure fiction.

RedNewEnglander on October 1, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Lol! Even with CNN’s Poll Bias/Dem Over sampling, they still can’t get the poll to show their Messiah in the lead! These clowns are not going to give up. Ideologues never do! Make sure your squishy friends don’t start repeating the Obama Enemy media meme’s & Obama will have no chance in Nov.
For those following,How to take on the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on October 1, 2012 at 8:05 PM

On the other hand, Drudge is reporting military ballots down as much as 90% in Ohio and Virginia. Anyone with family in the military must go viral with ANY delay in receiving ballots. The problem is that Obama’s people will drag their feet and I wouldn’t put it past them to use intimidation and threats to prevent the military from voting. Them Dems WILL cheat.

idalily on October 1, 2012 at 7:36 PM

We need to find out if military units in Ohio and Virginia were deployed in 2008 and may not be this year? That might explain some of it…no more Iraq and surge troops in Afghanistan have come home.

Deep Timber on October 1, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Quick rundown on the unskew calculator says – flip the results.

R: 51
0: 47

RedNewEnglander on October 1, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Hey, where’s Gumby yelling Game Over?

Chip on October 1, 2012 at 8:14 PM

And all of a sudden polls matter in Conservativistan!

lester on October 1, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Actually, even this poll is a joke by virtue of its wide oversampling of Dems and a tiny representation of Republicans.

But I wouldn’t expect someone like you who doesn’t think for himself and just follows the marching orders handed down from talking-points central to understand complicated stuff like sample sizes.

Right Mover on October 1, 2012 at 8:15 PM

“Wasn’t it lib4free or GuppyPoker who said Ras will soon have to fall in line with the current D+11ty media polls? Well, it looks like the media polls are starting to fall in behind Rasmussen. Tough luck, bro.”

I said Rasmussen would move towards Gallup, which he has.

In 08, once Ras moved and showed Obama in the lead, it held until the election.

Still hold my prediction that Obama wins all the states he had in 08 minus NC and IN and win the popular vote by about 3%.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Nate Silver is dismissing everything. Just waving it off. A few days ago, he was saying otherwise. But now, he’s totally refuting any tightening. The guy’s opinion is way too erratic.

budfox on October 1, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Hey, maybe this thing is not over after all.

Terrye on October 1, 2012 at 7:44 PM

It never was. Hang on Sloopy…

bluealice on October 1, 2012 at 8:17 PM

predator on October 1, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Psssish, is she passing her friends off as UVA, I bet she couldn’t find it on a map.

Cindy Munford on October 1, 2012 at 8:17 PM

No, it’s even worse than that. It’s only 161 people from all of those swing states combined.

Mark1971 on October 1, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Funny, gumby didn’t mention that little detail when he was climaxing over the results of this poll last night.

Right Mover on October 1, 2012 at 8:17 PM

This is good news!!..:)

Dire Straits on October 1, 2012 at 8:19 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:15 PM

There you are!

Tell me: Why are you a Downgrade advocate?

Chip on October 1, 2012 at 8:20 PM

So this poll looks even better for Romney than I thought.

Who are you, and what have you done with Eeyorepundit? :P

Benedict Nelson on October 1, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Tell me: Why are you a Downgrade advocate?

Chip on October 1, 2012 at 8:20 PM

grumpyandpoopy will advocate whatever it’s sugar daddy George Soros pays it to advocate.

Benedict Nelson on October 1, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Psssish, is she passing her friends off as UVA, I bet she couldn’t find it on a map.

Cindy Munford on October 1, 2012 at 8:17 PM

She’d follow Rosey O’Donnell’s advice–Google it!

predator on October 1, 2012 at 8:24 PM

“There you are!

Tell me: Why are you a Downgrade advocate?

Chip on October 1, 2012 at 8:20 PM”

I’m more interested in Politics than Policy, and who’s winning and who’s losing, which is all that matters.

And I’ll never defend an Obama policy because most, if not all, are indefensible.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:26 PM

That makes me think there’s more to this than just a fading bounce. Exit question: What’s happening here?

Well, Madonna did say if Obama wins she’d get naked.

just sayin’

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Well, Madonna did say if Obama wins she’d get naked.

just sayin’

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 8:26 PM

That would be tantamount to releasing the Kraken.

God help us.

predator on October 1, 2012 at 8:29 PM

And I’ll never defend an Obama policy because most, if not all, are indefensible.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:26 PM

… and you’re cheer leading for Obama because …?

AZfederalist on October 1, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Heh. gutmeandpokeme.

Lanceman on October 1, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Well, Madonna did say if Obama wins she’d get naked.

just sayin’

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 8:26 PM

If the RNC had anything on the ball….they’d use that in a “threat-themed” ad.

no one wants to see any more of that.

Tim_CA on October 1, 2012 at 8:31 PM

The Poker of Guppies arrives. And no, the polls are going towards what Ras has been saying about an essentially tied race. Ras is not going off into Rs-are-doomed-man land.

Sekhmet on October 1, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Alternate headline:
Obama has no where to go but down

OTTO on October 1, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Statiscaly tied = Romney up by 6

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Well, we’ll, well , it looks like Obama is in big trouble.. A plus 8 dem poll and he is only up 3%? This means Romney is up 3-4% because I guarantee there will not be more than a plus 2 for dems. Here in Ohio the dem registration is way down and the R registration is pretty even with 2008. The Indies are way up here in registration.

Ta111 on October 1, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Nate Silver is dismissing everything. Just waving it off. A few days ago, he was saying otherwise. But now, he’s totally refuting any tightening. The guy’s opinion is way too erratic.

budfox on October 1, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Nate Silver is gospel according to my a lunatic liberal I know. That’s all I need to know about Nate Silver’s opinion on anything.

mpthompson on October 1, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Who are you, and what have you done with Eeyorepundit? :P

Benedict Nelson on October 1, 2012 at 8:22 PM

The official Eeyore attire

OTTO on October 1, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Statistically

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:35 PM

“And I’ll never defend an Obama policy because most, if not all, are indefensible.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:26 PM

… and you’re cheer leading for Obama because …?

AZfederalist on October 1, 2012 at 8:29 PM”

Just reporting what IS and not what should be.

And I HATE when people “attack the polls.” It just seems ridiculous, imo.

Also, Romney has run one of the worst campaigns in modern history, so it’s laughable when people here say he’s going to win by 5 points or some such nonsense.

As far as my own political views, on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the most Conservative, I’m a 10 on social issues and probably a 8 on economic issues.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Still hold my prediction that Obama wins all the states he had in 08 minus NC and IN and win the popular vote by about 3%.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And earlier today you said this:

Ohio is a goner for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Until I pointed out this:

Really? Yesterday, from PPP, your buddy Kos’ own polling place.

It’s a mistake to think based on recent polling in Ohio that the race there is over. Obama is not popular in the state, with 48% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove. Among voters who remain undecided there just 13% think he’s doing a good job to 65% who give him poor marks. That doesn’t mean those folks will move to Romney en masse because they don’t particularly like him either (a 26/37 favorability rating) but it does mean there’s potential for the race there to get within tossup range over the final five weeks.

And then you predicted this:

Gallup daily tracking poll..

Obama 49
Romney 45

So nearly every poll shows Obama with 49% of the vote. An incumbent does not lose with that number already firmed up a month before the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Until I mentioned this:

In a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.

At which point you mysteriously disappeared from the thread.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Dang iPad, still sucks !

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Well we got Elway

Elway endorsement

gophergirl on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

At which point you mysteriously disappeared from the thread.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Hiya Flora! Those two are both liars and cowards. ; )

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Alternate headline:
Obama has no where to go but down

OTTO on October 1, 2012 at 8:32 PM

That’s what Larry Sinclair said.

Right Mover on October 1, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Nate Silver is gospel according to my a lunatic liberal urbane defeatist, I whom we all know. That’s all I need to know about Nate Silver’s opinion on anything.

mpthompson on October 1, 2012 at 8:35 PM

FIFY

Also, Romney has run one of the worst campaigns in modern history

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

May I introduce you to John Wayne McCain?

Lanceman on October 1, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Well we got Elway

Elway endorsement

gophergirl on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

I’ll take it. Might even mean something in Colorado.

OTTO on October 1, 2012 at 8:39 PM

That’s what Larry Sinclair said.

Right Mover on October 1, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Took me a sec.
LOL

OTTO on October 1, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Nate Silver is dismissing everything. Just waving it off. A few days ago, he was saying otherwise. But now, he’s totally refuting any tightening. The guy’s opinion is way too erratic.

budfox on October 1, 2012 at 8:16 PM

A big house effect over there at 538.

besser tot als rot on October 1, 2012 at 8:43 PM

“And then you predicted this:

Gallup daily tracking poll..

Obama 49
Romney 45

So nearly every poll shows Obama with 49% of the vote. An incumbent does not lose with that number already firmed up a month before the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Until I mentioned this:

In a Gallup poll on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Gallup had it Jimmy Carter 47, Ronald Reagan 39. That election two weeks later ended up in a landslide that was so big that Carter conceded before California closed.

At which point you mysteriously disappeared from the thread.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM”

OK…

An incumbent consistently polling at a 49-50 percent level (which Obama is) is very different from one mired in a 45-47 percent range, as Jimmy Carter was. Common sense just eludes you guys.

And nothing has shown me that Ohio is doable for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Well we got Elway

Elway endorsement

gophergirl on October 1, 2012 at 8:36

I think Peyton Manning is an avowed conservative, too, but don’t quote me on that.

Right Mover on October 1, 2012 at 8:43 PM

And nothing has shown me that Ohio is doable for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Nothing suggests it’s doable for 0 either, apologists troll.

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:46 PM

“Also, Romney has run one of the worst campaigns in modern history

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

May I introduce you to John Wayne McCain?

Lanceman on October 1, 2012 at 8:39 PM”

McCain had a bigger lead than Mitt Romney ever did (due to Sarah Palin) and only the financial crisis caused his campaign to go into meltdown.

His “celebrity” ad was 100 times better than anything Romney has put out, too.

Mitt never even made a game of it, even immediately after his convention.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:48 PM

“And nothing has shown me that Ohio is doable for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Nothing suggests it’s doable for 0 either, apologists troll.

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:46 PM”

Nah, just every single friggin’ poll known to man, lol.

But keep dreaming…keep dreaming.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:49 PM

And I HATE when people “attack the polls.” It just seems ridiculous, imo.

Most polls are tailored to fit a media meme, so I don’t see the problem with attacking the polls. But I’d rather that everyone would just ignore the polls, however, so they’d go away because they really mean nothing, or at most next to nothing.

Also, attributing past polling analysis to current polls is, I think, erroneous. Think about how far in the tank the traditional press has gone for Obama this year. They did it in 2008, but nowhere near as bad as this year. So, who is to say that they aren’t doing the same with their polls? Or that the pollsters aren’t doing the same? And, that doesn’t even account for what Michael Barone brought up with the significantly decreasing civilian willingness to participate in polling. Anyway, just a cheap way for the press to “make” news rather than doing hard work and going out there and working real stories.

Also, Romney has run one of the worst campaigns in modern history, so it’s laughable when people here say he’s going to win by 5 points or some such nonsense.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Can’t really argue with you there.

besser tot als rot on October 1, 2012 at 8:50 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Ha what? Yet you’re an obama voter? 100% bs.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 8:51 PM

I think Peyton Manning is an avowed conservative, too, but don’t quote me on that.

Right Mover on October 1, 2012 at 8:43 PM

He certainly has no problem making money.

OTTO on October 1, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Romney soundly has the Independent vote, which means that all we have to do is get out the vote and the biggest mistake in American history, Barack Hussein Obama get’s flushed in the crapper where he belongs. He will be free to sniff Lebron James’ jockstrap while sitting behind the glory hole wall in his favorite NBA locker room.

OxyCon on October 1, 2012 at 8:53 PM

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