CNN poll: Obama’s bounce gone, race now statistically tied

posted at 7:21 pm on October 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

In CNN’s last poll, taken soon after the Democratic convention, O led by six among likely voters. That lead’s now cut in half, to within the margin of error, despite weeks of media doomsaying about Romney’s campaign. In fact, the last four national polls all have the race within two or three points with a bounce opportunity for Romney looming 48 hours from now. I think the first debate will essentially be an audition for him: Obama’s the ultimate known quantity but, for millions of low-information voters, this’ll be the first time they see Romney in action. If he’s as composed and articulate as he was in the GOP primary debates, he’s bound to see some positive movement among undecideds regardless of what Obama does.

Even more encouraging here: As our Greenroomer Karl pointed out on Twitter, Obama’s lead among registered voters (50/46) is almost identical to his lead among likely voters (50/47), which means there isn’t much difference in the partisan split between the two samples. That’s unusual; typically a sample of likelies is a few points more Republican than a sample of registereds. So, if anything, CNN might be underestimating just how well Romney’s doing right now. Also, note that not only does Romney lead by eight among CNN’s (tiny) sample of independents, but his support from Republicans is even more solid than Obama’s support from the Democrats:

There must be a decent Democratic lean in the overall sample of likely voters (which CNN doesn’t publish) to produce that result. (Update: Yep. See below.) The money question, then: What’s causing the race to tighten? Is it a natural phenomenon as more casual voters start to pay attention? Is it, as CNN’s pollster suggests, a case of Obama’s post-convention bounce disappearing? Or is it public disgust with the Foreign Policy President’s performance on Libya? Here are the numbers on FP, where O’s lead is down five points from last month:

Suggestive, but not proof that that’s what’s driving this. Let’s see if we can find decline in any of his other numbers. How about … this?

Romney had a big lead initially, then it shrank after the conventions, and now it’s ballooning again. More:

Another huge fade as the convention recedes. I think CNN’s right: O got a bounce, which was possibly extended a bit past its normal shelf life by the “47 percent” kerfuffle, and now Americans are remembering that they don’t much like him without Bill Clinton on TV to convince them that they do. In fact, Obama’s favorable numbers are now nearly the same as Romney’s, 52/48 for The One and 49/50 for Mitt with possible movement to come on that Wednesday night. Most damning of all, check out his job approval — and note how long it’s been since he was this close to the water line:

That makes me think there’s more to this than just a fading bounce. Exit question: What’s happening here? Libya backlash, normal October tightening, or an early sign that undecideds are finally ready to pass on another four years of Hopenchange dreck?

Update: An oversight on my part: CNN did publish the partisan split this time, on page 15 — and it’s D+8 (37D/29R/34I). The turnout on election day 2008 was only D+7, and nobody but nobody thinks O will approach that this year. So this poll looks even better for Romney than I thought.


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An incumbent consistently polling at a 49-50 percent level (which Obama is) is very different from one mired in a 45-47 percent range, as Jimmy Carter was. Common sense just eludes you guys.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:43 PM

I’d agree if I thought that the press had even a fraction of the integrity that it had during Carter (small lot that). Maybe the polls are right, maybe they’re not. Impossible to say with the media playing Praetorian Guard to Obama.

besser tot als rot on October 1, 2012 at 8:54 PM

An incumbent consistently polling at a 49-50 percent level (which Obama is) is very different from one mired in a 45-47 percent range, as Jimmy Carter was. Common sense just eludes you guys.

And nothing has shown me that Ohio is doable for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Carter had 47% 2 weeks before the election, Reagan had 39, but still beat Jimmy’s tail all the way back to the peanut farm.

Obama has 49% 6 weeks before an election, Romney has 45 and you still think there’s no way Romney can pull this out?

Oooooookaaaaay.

Hey, you remember that piece of Florida land I mentioned this morning? Its still available.

What is most funny though is how you’re now dismissing what PPP is saying – because we all know if they supported your assumption that Ohio is gone for Romney – you’d be singing a different tune.

Speaking of singing, you wouldn’t happen to know the words to “Daisy,” would you?

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 8:54 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:49 PM

You like the polls. You trust the polls. You will perish by the polls. Lol!

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:55 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:49 PM

You keep on coming back for tose polls, hear!

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:56 PM

He will be free to sniff Lebron James’ jockstrap while sitting behind the glory hole wall in his favorite NBA locker room.

OxyCon on October 1, 2012 at 8:53 PM

ESPN will have a job for him. NCAA basketball bracket analyst.

predator on October 1, 2012 at 8:58 PM

tose=those, does anyone know why the site keeps crashing. I am having to re log in every third or fourth refresh. WTF?

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Here is all I know about polls. Don’t blow a hole out in your shorts over one poll. Watch the trend.

hawkdriver on October 1, 2012 at 8:59 PM

tose=those, does anyone know why the site keeps crashing. I am having to re log in every third or fourth refresh. WTF?

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:59 PM

No problems from here. I’m still on my original log in.

predator on October 1, 2012 at 9:00 PM

“Carter had 47% 2 weeks before the election, Reagan had 39, but still beat Jimmy’s tail all the way back to the peanut farm.

Obama has 49% 6 weeks before an election, Romney has 45 and you still think there’s no way Romney can pull this out?”

Do some research on the 1980 polls. Carter was anywhere from 45-47% near election day. There were more polls than just Gallup.

And if Obama is at the same level as Carter, he’ll lose.

But he’s not, and he won’t.

If everything that’s gone on hasn’t caused Obama to get less than 49-50 percent support, nothing will drive down his numbers (and drive up Mitt’s) now.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:02 PM

tose=those, does anyone know why the site keeps crashing. I am having to re log in every third or fourth refresh. WTF?

Bmore on October 1, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Get MalWareBytes free by Piriform. Run it and see what comes up.

Once you use it, you’ll wanna get the 24.95 version. It’s great, as I visit a lot of infected pron sites.

Lanceman on October 1, 2012 at 9:03 PM

This election looks a lot like Bush/Kerry. But Obama’s actually doing a bit better than Bush in the head-to-head polls…

Final Results – – 50.7 48.3 Bush +2.4
RCP Average 10/27 – 11/1 – 48.9 47.4 Bush +1.5
Marist 11/1 – 11/1 – 49 50 Kerry +1
GW/Battleground 10/31 – 11/1 – 50 46 Bush +4
IBD/TIPP 10/30 – 11/1 – 50.1 48 Bush +2.1
CBS News 10/29 – 11/1 – 49 47 Bush +2
Harris 10/29 – 11/1 – 49 48 Bush +1
FOX News 10/30 – 10/31 – 46 48 Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby 10/29 – 10/31 – 48 47 Bush +1
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 10/29 – 10/31 – 49 49 Tie
NBC/WSJ 10/29 – 10/31 – 48 47 Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post 10/28 – 10/31 – 49 48 Bush +1
ARG 10/28 – 10/30 – 48 48 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 10/28 – 10/30 – 49 46 Bush +3
Pew Research 10/27 – 10/30 – 51 48 Bush +3
Newsweek 10/27 – 10/29 – 50 44 Bush +6

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Irrespective of the polling, I, the eternal optimist, am getting worried.

I have been talking to relatives and friends in swing states. I also had lunch with a friend in Congress who is my fellow optimist. The picture is not good. Salvageable, but not good.

I believe the polls are pulling closer to reality, But the bottom line is Romney has not sealed the deal enough to win. Especially in the swing states.

His insular, drip-drip strategy, while perhaps pleasing to insiders is not sitting well with some of the electorate.

People want to see and hear more from Romney and not just at the debates. People want aggressive positions and a recitation on issues such as Libya, Egypt and “Fast and Furious”. Never mind, the paramount economic issues- irrespective of what Romney’s internal polling reads.

I am not satisfied with the “we’re getting closer” strategy. What happens if the gap is not closed in the little time that is left?

Time to get off your asses and stop preening yourselves at the Romney camp. Take a little free advice and get Mr. Romney out there more aggressively. Stop putting all your hope on the debates.

Marcus Traianus on October 1, 2012 at 9:09 PM

D+9 ignores the R+4 advantage in Party Identification, the R+4 advantage in the Generic Congressional ballot and the R+16 enthusiasm advantage. I think a reasonable turnout model is R+5, so yes, unless Mitt is found in bed with someone other than his wife, and unless he accepts the advice of his more hysterical critics, it’s over.

Mitt should of course run like he’s behind rather than 10 ahead.

Basilsbest on October 1, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Bishop!

PolAgnostic on October 1, 2012 at 7:24 PM

and for everyone else BISHOP!

gerrym51 on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

When did Bishop’s name become a Word of Power or whatever Muad’Dib called it?

Mary in LA on October 1, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Gumby the fake Fiscal/Social conservative loves obama.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:10 PM

PolAgnostic on October 1, 2012 at 7:24 PM

and for everyone else BISHOP!

gerrym51 on October 1, 2012 at 7:25 PM

When did Bishop’s name become a Word of Power or whatever Muad’Dib called it?

Mary in LA on October 1, 2012 at 9:09 PM

These jokers are using the name of Bishop in an indiscriminate manner.

BISHOP! should be reserved for KOTD ONLY.

Lanceman on October 1, 2012 at 9:11 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Is your story still that you’re a Conservative but that you’re so upset that Romney won the primary that you’re pulling for Obama?

hawkdriver on October 1, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Not until its 50/50 or 49/49 or 48/48 will i believe its a tie. Obama still working with a couple of points on him. I don’t feel comfortable with that.

Robb on October 1, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Yep, that Romney momentum taking hold! Only down 15 pts in NH!

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2012_fall_presapp100112.pdf

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Again, I haven’t read through all the comments yet, but did others see Karl Rove’s superpac ad that was released today? they showed it on The Five, and it was awesome! it had Barry doing The View instead of attending UN meetings and hitting Vegas right after the funeral of the slain men. I really hope it’s airing nationally- it showed exactly what kind of man Obama really is.

BettyRuth on October 1, 2012 at 9:16 PM

O/T: Romney campaign speech live at 9:15pm, on CSPAN-2.

Night Owl on October 1, 2012 at 9:16 PM

As far as my own political views, on a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the most Conservative, I’m a 10 on social issues and probably a 8 on economic issues.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Ummm, yeah. I’m buying that.

AZfederalist on October 1, 2012 at 9:16 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Ha a poll of adults? Not even one of registered voters? Fail.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:17 PM

“Is your story still that you’re a Conservative but that you’re so upset that Romney won the primary that you’re pulling for Obama?

hawkdriver on October 1, 2012 at 9:11 PM”

Yes, I’m a Conservative.

No, I’m not pulling for Obama, and would love to have to eat crow here on election night.

But I’m 100% sure that Obama is going to win based on the polling data and the lack of Romney ads in swing states that signify money problems (and the one’s that do air stink).

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Yes, I’m a Conservative.

No, I’m not pulling for Obama, and would love to have to eat crow here on election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Wow what a liar you are!

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:18 PM

“Ha a poll of adults? Not even one of registered voters? Fail.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:17 PM”

Take 10 pts off the lead and it’s still a rout.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Do some research on the 1980 polls. Carter was anywhere from 45-47% near election day. There were more polls than just Gallup.

But you didn’t post other polls, did you? You posted a Gallup poll taken 6 weeks out. I posted the results of a Gallup poll taken 2 weeks out. And we know how that ended.

If everything that’s gone on hasn’t caused Obama to get less than 49-50 percent support, nothing will drive down his numbers (and drive up Mitt’s) now.

Get back to us after the debate on Wednesday.

And also, I guess you haven’t been paying much attention to what’s happening in the Hispanic community since Univision’s special on Fast and Furious last night – have you?

You might wanna put some “ice” on that.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:19 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:19 PM

You’re the douche who’s citing a poll of adults, not registered voters or likely voters. Back up how Obama’s up 15 in NH.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:21 PM

G&P keeps using the word conservative.
I do not think it that means what he thinks it means.

22044 on October 1, 2012 at 9:22 PM

He certainly has no problem making money.

OTTO on October 1, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Neither did Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Sergie Brien, Warren Buffett, numerous Hollywood celebutards, or even Ben & Jerry. Libs have no problem with making money for themselves and taking advantage of every tax shelter known to man; they just don’t want any of those uppity middle class folks to join them in success.

AZfederalist on October 1, 2012 at 9:22 PM

No, I’m not pulling for Obama, and would love to have to eat crow here on election night.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:18 PM

What a lying sack of sh*t you are. Just yesterday you were bragging about how you can’t wait to come here election night and rub our noses in a Romney loss.

You’re a typical liberal. You see your narrative slipping away so now you’re trying to change the narrative.

Too bad we’re not the dumb knuckle-dragging rubes you libs like to think we are.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:24 PM

“But you didn’t post other polls, did you? You posted a Gallup poll taken 6 weeks out. I posted the results of a Gallup poll taken 2 weeks out. And we know how that ended.”

C’mon, I post EVERY poll I find, lol, not just gallup.

“Get back to us after the debate on Wednesday.

And also, I guess you haven’t been paying much attention to what’s happening in the Hispanic community since Univision’s special on Fast and Furious last night – have you?

You might wanna put some “ice” on that.

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:19 PM”

You’re right about the debate. That’s the last chance Romney has to “re-set” the race (as John Kerry did).

And nobody cares (or even knows about) about Fast and Furious except Conservative blogs. It will have ZERO impact in November.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:25 PM

“What a lying sack of sh*t you are. Just yesterday you were bragging about how you can’t wait to come here election night and rub our noses in a Romney loss.

You’re a typical liberal. You see your narrative slipping away so now you’re trying to change the narrative.”

Hoping I eat crow and looking forward to saying “I told you so” are not mutually exclusive.

I HOPE I’m wrong, but I know I won’t be. And I’ll take great pleasure in telling guys like Del and Bluegill what idiots they were.

The election will be called very early, when Ohio goes for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:29 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:29 PM

You HOPE you’re wrong? Bullshit. You’ll be cheering and chanting Yes we can.

It’s hilarious how transparent you are. You claim to be conservative but all your posts show that you’re nothing than an Obama fluffer.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:32 PM

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:32 PM

If he really is a Conservative, I would know what to say. He want Obama to win so badly just to prove he’s right about how bad Romney is. I’m not even a Republican anymore, but I’ve never pulled for the Republican any harder than I am this time. Why would a Conservative gloat over us losing?

hawkdriver on October 1, 2012 at 9:40 PM

No, I’m not pulling for Obama, and would love to have to eat crow here on election night.

But I’m 100% sure that Obama is going to win based on the polling data and the lack of Romney ads in swing states that signify money problems (and the one’s that do air stink).

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:18 PM

As a diehard Romney supporter, I actually believe you. Just wish you were’nt so crappy on Romney. He’s a decent man. How about you express your concerns and worries in a more diplomatic way. I get you and I am pessimistic too but I will vote and I will urge everyone I know to do so too.

Robb on October 1, 2012 at 9:40 PM

“wouldn’t” know what to say ..

hawkdriver on October 1, 2012 at 9:41 PM

hawkdriver on October 1, 2012 at 9:40 PM

He’s not a conservative. Not even close. All of his posts here are all about glorifying Obama.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:41 PM

QStarNews Daily Tracking Poll going south on Romney. This was a poll I was clinging to when all the rest were bad…Damn!

Robb on October 1, 2012 at 9:47 PM

D+9 ignores the R+4 advantage in Party Identification, the R+4 advantage in the Generic Congressional ballot and the R+16 enthusiasm advantage. I think a reasonable turnout model is R+5, so yes, unless Mitt is found in bed with someone other than his wife, and unless he accepts the advice of his more hysterical critics, it’s over.

Mitt should of course run like he’s behind rather than 10 ahead.

Basilsbest on October 1, 2012 at 9:09 PM

That R+4 number comes from Rasmussen’s Party Affiliation for August 2012. We’re waiting for the September numbers – but since the Democrats came out of their convention a little more excited than the Republicans, I expect it to narrow some.

Is the Rasmussen Party Affiliation worth looking at? I think so, when you look back and see that they came pretty close to nailing the turnout for 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010.

Summary of Party Affiliation

This will be a turnout election. If we keep our heads, get our vote out, and not let the media psy ops dispirit us, we’re gonna win this thing.

TarheelBen on October 1, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Robb on October 1, 2012 at 9:47 PM

Is that even a real poll?

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:50 PM

When did Bishop’s name become a Word of Power or whatever Muad’Dib called it?

Mary in LA on October 1, 2012 at 9:09 PM

It’s traditional. Now Bishop should move to St. Louis so he can be promoted to ARCHbishop!

(ducks and runs, cackling evilly)

Benedict Nelson on October 1, 2012 at 9:50 PM

And nobody cares (or even knows about) about Fast and Furious except Conservative blogs. It will have ZERO impact in November.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Again, I hang my head in shame, because you’re right.

NOT!

Phoenix New Times: “Fast and Furious Weapons Linked to Many More Deaths, According to Univision”

KVIA El Paso: “Fast and Furious Scandal: New Details Emerge on How the U.S. Government Armed Mexican Drug Cartels”

Colorado’s KVOR: “More ‘Fast and Furious’ Guns Linked to Mexican Crimes”

Arizona’s KTVK: “Guns from ‘Fast and Furious’ operation tied to 2010 Mexico massacre”

Alaska Dispatch: “Univision says ‘Fast and Furious’ tied to massacre of teenagers”

Prescott eNews: “Fast & Furious Guns Reportedly Used in Mexican Massacre of High School Students”

Would you like more?

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:51 PM

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:51 PM

See how conservative Gumby is? Anything to puff up his prince.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Is that even a real poll?

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:50 PM

It is an unskewed poll. Were’nt we counting on those?

Robb on October 1, 2012 at 9:54 PM

Robb on October 1, 2012 at 9:54 PM

Qstar looks like it’s just one guy’s website.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Wasn’t it lib4free or GuppyPoker who said Ras will soon have to fall in line with the current D+11ty media polls? Well, it looks like the media polls are starting to fall in behind Rasmussen. Tough luck, bro.

Sekhmet on October 1, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Unfortunately Rasmussen has had D+9 in the last few days based on the calculations I made when I looked at the details of his polling sample… It is very unfortunate that Rasmussen is doing so lately…

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 9:55 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:06 PM

It is still not getting into your tiny little liberal brain that Obama is only ahead of Romney because of the ridiculous oversampling of democrats in the vast majority of the polls… The strategy to demoralize the Republican/Conservative based via very biased polls has failed like every other strategy tried by Obama and his media before… You have nothing left…

mnjg on October 1, 2012 at 9:58 PM

hawkdriver on October 1, 2012 at 9:40 PM

He’s not a conservative. Not even close. All of his posts here are all about glorifying Obama.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:41 PM

You know, you want to believe what people say. But he does nothing but try to suppress enthusiasm. I honestly don’t believe a word he says at this point. If he’s a Conservative, he’s an embarrassment.

hawkdriver on October 1, 2012 at 10:00 PM

CNN poll: Obama’s bounce gone, race now statistically tied

Astonishing that it’s even this close.

Looking down the road, even with Romney in there things will still be screwed up…I can’t see him doing much of anything effective, but, of course, at least he’s not a closet Muslim and a Marxist.

So Romney will not be able to do the “inherit” thing and get away with it. The “press” will be all over him, even before he’s sworn in. The “press” wills start throwing the “R” word (recession) around a lot more freely starting next January.

Then we can look forward to some new Socialist backed by international financiers and Saudis promising lotsa free stuff on the backs of the evil rich.

These people would love to win the White House again this cycle, but they’re looking far down the road and have an amazing amount of patience…they just keep chipping our Republic away little by little.

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 1, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Qstar looks like it’s just one guy’s website.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:55 PM

Yeah but a guy who was giving us some amazing numbers for Romney till now.

Robb on October 1, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Robb on October 1, 2012 at 10:02 PM

It’s a junk poll. There was never a possibility that Romney was up 15.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 10:05 PM

That’s because bounces that fade for Barky are Racist! Racist!!!!

viking01 on October 1, 2012 at 10:10 PM

Ha a poll of adults? Not even one of registered voters? Fail.

wargamer6 on October 1, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Next he’ll be citing polls taken at Occupy Wall St. events. “Oh Mah Gozer, Obama us up Eleventy three points!!11!!!”

Jason Taylor Sacked You on October 1, 2012 at 10:17 PM

How convenient. After the debates, CNN can fudge the results back upwards and declare a debate victory for Obama.
Exit question: is Rasmussen doing the same in reverse?

topdog on October 1, 2012 at 10:21 PM

An incumbent consistently polling at a 49-50 percent level (which Obama is) is very different from one mired in a 45-47 percent range, as Jimmy Carter was. Common sense just eludes you guys.

gumbyandpokey

Not if he’s getting 49-50 percent by oversampling dems by 3-4 points it isn’t.

xblade on October 1, 2012 at 10:22 PM

“An incumbent consistently polling at a 49-50 percent level (which Obama is) is very different from one mired in a 45-47 percent range, as Jimmy Carter was. Common sense just eludes you guys.

gumbyandpokey

Not if he’s getting 49-50 percent by oversampling dems by 3-4 points it isn’t.

xblade on October 1, 2012 at 10:22 PM”

Which of the recent polls (ABC, Gallup, Ras, CNN) has an unrealistic sample?

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 10:26 PM

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:18 PM

A conservative? You spend a lot of time berating us for disbelieving a lot of these polls and suggesting they might be skewed. Any true conservative with some common sense should know DAMN WELL that they’re skewed.

TarheelBen on October 1, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Which of the recent polls (ABC, Gallup, Ras, CNN) has an unrealistic sample?

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 10:26 PM

What was that firm that Kos used that just made up numbers? I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that any of ‘em were doing the same. So, unrealistic or not, with no credibility, the polls are less than worthless.

besser tot als rot on October 1, 2012 at 10:40 PM

All these polls are crap!

Romney wins by 7 points (if not more).

Mark it!

And I don’t give a cr@p about your history. Never in the history of this country has the media had such a vested interetsed in seeing a sitting president win…

Too bad most American’s don’t watch the news, but have to pay bills, buy gas, and buy groceries every day.

ccrosby on October 1, 2012 at 10:41 PM

If 0bama enthusiasm were even approaching that of 2008, much less surpassing it as all the media polls assume, where is the evidence of it? Where are the hordes wearing 0bama T-shirts? Where are the swooning crowds at 0bama events? Where are the scads of 0bama stickers and yard signs in 2012 when I couldn’t swing a cat without hitting one here in Austin TX in 2008?

And the polls Guppy Poker pushes ASSume that enthusiasm to vote for 0bama surpasses even that of 2008. I raise the BS flag, y’all.

Sekhmet on October 1, 2012 at 10:46 PM

So this poll looks even better for Romney than I thought.

Okay, fess up: who are you and what have you done with Allahpundit? Because that comment is decidely unEeyore-ish.

Physics Geek on October 1, 2012 at 11:05 PM

And nobody cares (or even knows about) about Fast and Furious except Conservative blogs. It will have ZERO impact in November.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Your concern for humanity is touching.

itsspideyman on October 1, 2012 at 11:06 PM

“All these polls are crap!

Romney wins by 7 points (if not more).

Mark it!”

And that’s why I’m here, lol.

Someone needs to bring a dose of reality!

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 11:08 PM

And nobody cares (or even knows about) about Fast and Furious except Conservative blogs. It will have ZERO impact in November.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:25 PM

lol.

stashed.

Tim_CA on October 1, 2012 at 11:11 PM

And that’s why I’m here, lol.

Someone needs to bring a dose of reality!

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 11:08 PM

Like the “reality” that 0bama enthusiasm surpasses 2008? Yeah, I think we’re more real than you are, Guppy.

Sekhmet on October 1, 2012 at 11:11 PM

“And that’s why I’m here, lol.

Someone needs to bring a dose of reality!

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 11:08 PM

Like the “reality” that 0bama enthusiasm surpasses 2008? Yeah, I think we’re more real than you are, Guppy.

Sekhmet on October 1, 2012 at 11:11 PM”

I’ve said numerous times the enthusiasm for Obama isn’t in the same ballpark as 08. But he doesn’t need it to be. All he needs is for people to prefer him to Romney, which they do.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 11:31 PM

Update: An oversight on my part: CNN did publish the partisan split this time, on page 15 — and it’s D+8 (37D/29R/34I). The turnout on election day 2008 was only D+7, and nobody but nobody thinks O will approach that this year. So this poll looks even better for Romney than I thought.

Schadenfreude on October 2, 2012 at 12:10 AM

Reality is indignant.

Schadenfreude on October 2, 2012 at 12:11 AM

In 08, once Ras moved and showed Obama in the lead, it held until the election.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 8:15 PM

This ain’t 08. Screw the polls. In every battleground state, Democrat registration is down, and Republican registration is up. The Republicans continue to maintain an advantage in voter enthusiasm.

We have a ground game going in every battleground state that far exceeds 08. There are 41 million Tea Partiers who will vote and work on election day. The Tea Party is “all in” to defeat Barry,and if you don’t think that can make a difference, look at just about every election that’s occurred since Obama’s election. One thing I expect to see after this first debate is a significant shift in Independents to Romney. If we get our vote out in this election, we will win.

TarheelBen on October 2, 2012 at 1:39 AM

And now he’s suppressing the military vote by not following federal law an establishing on post voting offices . . . this self serving tyrant has no shame.

rplat on October 2, 2012 at 6:24 AM

And nobody cares (or even knows about) about Fast and Furious except Conservative blogs. It will have ZERO impact in November.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Dream on, fool.

rplat on October 2, 2012 at 6:32 AM

Of course, Hotair only talks about polls showing Mittens closing in or leading.
Because obviously all other polls are biased.

Dave Rywall on October 2, 2012 at 8:58 AM

In a 37 D / 29 R / 34 I sample, Obama leads 50-47, but Romney leads Indies 49-41, and takes 6% of Democrats while Obama gets only 4% of Republicans.

Apply these internals to a D+2 electorate, for example 35 D / 33 R / 32 I, and Romney leads 49.5% to 47.0%.

The truth is, if Romney wins a slight majority of Indies, he can overcome even a slightly higher turnout of Democrats, and he NEEDS to turn out the Republican base.

Steve Z on October 2, 2012 at 9:02 AM

And nobody cares (or even knows about) about Fast and Furious except Conservative blogs. It will have ZERO impact in November.

gumbyandpokey on October 1, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Again, I hang my head in shame, because you’re right.

NOT!

Phoenix New Times: “Fast and Furious Weapons Linked to Many More Deaths, According to Univision”

KVIA El Paso: “Fast and Furious Scandal: New Details Emerge on How the U.S. Government Armed Mexican Drug Cartels”

Colorado’s KVOR: “More ‘Fast and Furious’ Guns Linked to Mexican Crimes”

Arizona’s KTVK: “Guns from ‘Fast and Furious’ operation tied to 2010 Mexico massacre”

Alaska Dispatch: “Univision says ‘Fast and Furious’ tied to massacre of teenagers”

Prescott eNews: “Fast & Furious Guns Reportedly Used in Mexican Massacre of High School Students”

Would you like more?

Flora Duh on October 1, 2012 at 9:51 PM

More importantly, this is getting HUGE play in the Hispanic community, the demographic that the Democrats are counting on as the next wave. The one that they’re pandering to at the expense of the African-Americans.

They just don’t understand that working people in general (and the Hispanic community is an exceptionally hard-working demographic) tend to be conservative, especially when it comes to their children. If the administration doesn’t address how Fast and Furious guns were used to massacre teenagers, it’s not going to go well.

Fast and Furious is just getting started.

Add in the disenfranchisement of military voters, the ongoing and deepening Libyan fiasco (they were posting threats on FACEBOOK!), the complete lack of trust in the MSM, and not even D+11 samples are going to hold up.

AJsDaddie on October 2, 2012 at 9:44 AM

The truth is, if Romney wins a slight majority of Indies, he can overcome even a slightly higher turnout of Democrats, and he NEEDS to turn out the Republican base.

Steve Z on October 2, 2012 at 9:02 AM

45% of Independents think the pollsters are skewing their results to help Obama. That’s a lot of disenfranchised independents. (40% think they’re okay, 15% no opinion evidently.)

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/259655-poll-plurality-of-americans-believe-polls-biased-for-obama

The really fun part? This is a KOS/SEIU poll.

AJsDaddie on October 2, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Wait, I thought the polls were ‘biased’.
Not anymore?

verbaluce on October 2, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Wait, I thought the polls were ‘biased’.
Not anymore?

verbaluce on October 2, 2012 at 10:26 AM
——-

When Obama is leading, the polls are biased.

When Romney’s catching up, the polls are not biased

DUH OBVIOUSLY

Dave Rywall on October 2, 2012 at 10:44 AM

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