Are the debates going to matter?

posted at 5:01 pm on September 30, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

A continuing theme I’ve been hearing on the political gabfests on cable news this week is that not only are the current polling numbers sketchy at best, they don’t really matter all that much because… wait until the debates! That seems to be the expected pivot point in the home stretch of the race, and analysts from both sides are playing the expectations game and declaring how vital it will be for Romney to “make his mark” or for Obama to “avoid a game changing slip-up.” But assuming that one of them doesn’t come out at the podium and announce that they are either a serial killer or that they’ve discovered a cure for cancer, (with proof) will the debates really move the needle for either of them?

Miranda Green thinks not.

A 2008 Gallup study found that between 1960 and 2004, there were only two years where debates made a difference in actual votes. Instead, the most common outcome of the presidential debates is a slight popularity bump. But that bump doesn’t necessarily translate into votes.

“They sometimes have a short-term effect, a bounce in response to the debates, but at the end of the day there often is not much of an effect,” says Robert Erikson, author of The Timeline of Presidential Elections.

Data from the Gallup study also saw no direct correlation between the winner of each debate and the winner of the presidency. The 2004 Kerry vs. Bush debate was cited as an example. Kerry was considered the victor of all three showdowns, but still lost the election.

Not to read too much into Ms. Green’s personal preferences here, but it seems to me that those who feel their preferred candidate is ahead (rightly or wrongly) might be more inclined to think the debates won’t matter. But even with that said, it seems to me as if there is still a strong possibility that these shows may not produce much in the way of heat. If the candidates have been coached to play it too safe to avoid any potential damage, we may be treated to nothing more than stilted reruns of portions of their stump speeches in response to questions.

But if either of them – perhaps more likely for Romney – feel like they need a breakout moment, they might take a more aggressive tack. There are already rumors flying about Mitt preparing some “zingers” for the President, leading to much amusement on Twitter over the weekend. That can go two ways, of course. If the delivery is off or it’s perceived as more mean than funny, off the mark, etc. then it could turn into a campaign advertisement which won’t help matters at all. But if he delivers something that comes off along the lines of, “I knew Jack Kennedy, and you, Senator, are no Jack Kennedy” then I still think the debates could light a fire at just the right time.

Will anyone be watching? This chart shows how TV audiences generally declined by media share for a quarter of a century after hitting a high water mark for Reagan vs Carter. But that trend turned around in 2008 with significant increases in viewership for Obama vs McCain, and the Republican primary debates scored well above expected levels. I continue to maintain my belief that summer numbers reflect mostly the “preaching to the choir” crowds, and there will always be a significant number of people who don’t watch news channels 24/7 and are yet open to seeing something unexpected which changes or makes up their mind in the final weeks.


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During the debates, low info voters will notice Romney for the first time.

RightKlik on September 30, 2012 at 6:00 PM

During the debates, low info voters will notice Romney for the first time.

RightKlik on September 30, 2012 at 6:00 PM

This demo does not watch the debates hence their designation.

Rio Linda Refugee on September 30, 2012 at 6:02 PM

I’m sure I’m way off base, but a part of me expects “something” to happen prior to Wednesday night, and Obama will have to, (with great gravity and false concern) cancel, to attend to his Presidentin’.

(I know- first time ever, right?)

BettyRuth on September 30, 2012 at 6:00 PM

That will go over like a turd in a swimming pool.

VegasRick on September 30, 2012 at 6:02 PM

The debate on Wednesday night matters so much to me that I can’t watch it. I’ll record it, wait to see if people I trust are saying nice things and if they are, only then will I watch it. I want the debate to cause an earthquake, a tsunami of voters rushing to the polls to vote out yomama. I cannot stand another 4 years of this.

winfield on September 30, 2012 at 6:02 PM

A Daily Beast writer as source? Really?

[AZfederalist on September 30, 2012 at 5:11 PM]

It’s contrarian. A foil if you will, but I know what you mean. The point, I suppose, is to be seen as punching up, not down; taking on the man; truth to power, maybe, but consistently having the same sources, it seems to me, can have an opposite affect, particularly when the source is a known lightweight. Then it looks more like a decent into trolling.

There’s a lot of good stuff out there to be used both as contrast and complement. It takes more work, though, to find it and use it.

Dusty on September 30, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Well the press has their next attack on Romney ready.

You see Ann Romney is worried about Mitts mental well being were he to win.

Makes me wonder if this is another cut and paste hit job.

Steveangell on September 30, 2012 at 6:03 PM

They still slashed my tires with a flood light and camera pointed at it because I finally told them I was no longer giving them cash when they came by begging. Even though it was clear who it was in the video, the police refused to do anything about it.

astonerii on September 30, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Good grief, man. That sucks. Where do you live, so I can make sure never to go there.

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:04 PM

I’m in the 91% of people that hang up on them, so they never even get to my opinion. They’ll hear from me on November 6th.

RBMN on September 30, 2012 at 6:04 PM

That will go over like a turd in a swimming pool.

VegasRick on September 30, 2012 at 6:02 PM

You shouldn’t talk about The Lunch Lady like that.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:04 PM

no

deedtrader on September 30, 2012 at 6:04 PM

BettyRuth on September 30, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Well, I did read somewhere that his debate PREP schedule has been hampered by his need to concentrate on the ME .. You know, that Presidentin’ thang.
LOL.

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:04 PM

[BettyRuth on September 30, 2012 at 6:00 PM]

It would certainly fit the pattern established and nail down the narrative for Obama until the next debate.

Dusty on September 30, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Good grief, man. That sucks. Where do you live, so I can make sure never to go there.

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Phoenix is as close as I can give you details. I’m too opinionated to risk more specifics.

astonerii on September 30, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Well the press has their next attack on Romney ready.

You see Ann Romney is worried about Mitts mental well being were he to win.

Makes me wonder if this is another cut and paste hit job.

Steveangell on September 30, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Remember when they told us that Reagan was a senile old man? Heh. I remember how that turned out.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:05 PM

H -

Sorry Del.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Only thing worse than a lame and tired cliche?

Being lame and tired enough to steal it.

You really do have nothing.

I’m sure I’m way off base, but a part of me expects “something” to happen prior to Wednesday night, and Obama will have to, (with great gravity and false concern) cancel, to attend to his Presidentin’.

(I know- first time ever, right?)

BettyRuth on September 30, 2012 at 6:00 PM

That will go over like a turd in a swimming pool.

VegasRick on September 30, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Are you kidding? Obama is aching for this debate. Perfect opportunity for the campaign. Romney needs a knockout (according to his own people) and Obama can just play to win on points, and wait for the off but significant chance that Romney — in his desperation — will say something defining and/or stupid. Again.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:07 PM

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Meh. I really have nothing. Imma go shoot myself.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Remember when they told us that Reagan was a senile old man? Heh. I remember how that turned out.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Yes. Oliver North staged an internal coup and we ended up trying to sell arms to the Iranians in order to fund an illegal war.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:09 PM

… a part of me expects “something” to happen prior to Wednesday night, and Obama will have to, (with great gravity and false concern) cancel, to attend to his Presidentin’.

BettyRuth on September 30, 2012 at 6:00 PM

My bet is he’s too cocky to duck out on the first debate. He thinks he’ll win it. But if he gets pummeled into hopelessness on Wednesday, I’d expect him to duck out on the second or third debate.

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:09 PM

The debate on Wednesday night matters so much to me that I can’t watch it. I’ll record it, wait to see if people I trust are saying nice things and if they are, only then will I watch it. I want the debate to cause an earthquake, a tsunami of voters rushing to the polls to vote out yomama. I cannot stand another 4 years of this.

winfield on September 30, 2012 at 6:02 PM

I thought I was the only one who did this! I probably will watch it, but I’ll be pacing from room to room. (with a glass of something adult in my hand)

BettyRuth on September 30, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Easy on the zingers, people. Aside from the dead-pan groan they usually cause, the electorate isn’t in the mood. Neither side wants a slogan; both want a revolution. So pretend you are going to give them one, and keep it from sounding scary.

Axe on September 30, 2012 at 5:19 PM

I agree. Romney should be calm, relaxed, factual, lay out his case — both his case against Zero and his case for himself. He should NOT be going for the one-liners, but rather stay presidential, talk about solutions to the financial disaster this country is in, talk about the greatness that this nation once enjoyed and can enjoy again. Make it about Zero’s past (as president) and Romney’s future (as president). If he does that, if he stays presidential, there is a very good chance Zero will self-destruct. The media won’t report it that way, but maybe enough people will see it to make a difference.

Also, anyone else notice that Zero’s approval is down 4 points in the past two days in Gallup polling — that’s over a weekend which is supposed to be kind to democrats. Down to 46 approval. Could be a tough week ahead for Zero. He’s heading in to the debates on a weakening trend. Is the far-worse-than-Watergate Libya attack cover-up finally getting some traction?

Rational Thought on September 30, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Yes. Oliver North staged an internal coup and we ended up trying to sell arms to the Iranians in order to fund an illegal war.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Go get those eeeeevil conservatives, defeatist! Go get ‘em!!!

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Are you kidding? Obama is aching for this debate. Perfect opportunity for the campaign. Romney needs a knockout (according to his own people) and Obama can just play to win on points, and wait for the off but significant chance that Romney — in his desperation — will say something defining and/or stupid. Again.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:07 PM

I’m afraid you are correct

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:12 PM

My bet is he’s too cocky to duck out on the first debate. He thinks he’ll win it. But if he gets pummeled into hopelessness on Wednesday, I’d expect him to duck out on the second or third debate.

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:09 PM

If Romney can just make him nail-spitting mad. Just one time…

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:12 PM

These are usually when the UN-engaged will take a look and make up their minds. It doesn’t help Romney that the moderators only throw out questions from the left, but historically, the undecided’s will pick sides on the first or second debate.

For those following,How to take on the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on September 30, 2012 at 6:13 PM

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Get back to us on that when you raise the same amount of ire against Obama regarding his violation of the War Powers Act during the bombing of Libya. … and that same amount of ire is your admission that his violation of that Act means you no longer support Obama for president because he engaged in an illegal war action.

AZfederalist on September 30, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Well, I did read somewhere that his debate PREP schedule has been hampered by his need to concentrate on the ME .. You know, that Presidentin’ thang.
LOL.

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:04 PM

uh huh. Hook him up to a lie detecter, and we’ll see that he’s worried about his golf score and having to having to see Michelle naked.

BettyRuth on September 30, 2012 at 6:15 PM

astonerii on September 30, 2012 at 6:05 PM

That’s plenty. Don’t blame ya one bit. I’ll tell my general area, but no more.

I guess any big city nowadays has a large population of progressive vandals. Their ideology excuses the crime. When the end justifies the means, vandalism is noble when it advances the cause.

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Remember when they told us that Reagan was a senile old man? Heh. I remember how that turned out.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Yes. Oliver North staged an internal coup and we ended up trying to sell arms to the Iranians in order to fund an illegal war.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Come here, sweetie… get real close so I can whisper this into your ear:

“You’re really not the brightest bulb in the chandelier, are ya.”

That’s a statement not a question. Carry on little man.. Carry on.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Here’s all mitt has to do.Show that we have a zillion times more crude(light sweet as well) than anybody anywhere and all we have to do is drill baby drill and we can tell all the araeb assholls to kiss our shiny white arses.

http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911#.UGjDFFHpspU

About 6 months ago, the writer was watching a news program on oil and one of the Forbes Bros. was the guest.

The host said to Forbes, “I am going to ask you a direct question and I would like a direct answer;

how much oil does the U.S. have in the ground?” Forbes did not miss a beat, he said, “more than all the Middle East put together.”

The U. S.. Geological Service issued a report in April 2008 that only scientists and oil men knew was coming, but man was it big.

It was a revised report (hadn’t been updated since 1995) on how much oil was

in this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota, western South Dakota, and extreme eastern Montana.

Check THIS out:

The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska ‘s Prudhoe Bay , and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The Energy Information
Administration (EIA) estimates

it at 503 billion barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is ecoverable( 5 billion barrels), at $107 a barrel,

we’re looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion.

“When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor.

They had no idea..” says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature’s financial analyst.

“This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshore oil field found in the past 56 years,” reportsThe Pittsburgh Post Gazette.

It’s a formation known as the Williston Basin , but is more commonly referred to as the ‘Bakken.’

It stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada .

For years, U. S. oil exploration has been considered a dead end.

Even the ‘Big Oil’ companies gave up searching for major oil wells decades ago.

However, a recent technological breakthrough has opened up the Bakken’s massive reserves,

and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL !!!!!!

That’s enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 2041 years straight.

And if THAT didn’t throw you on the floor, then this next one should – because it’s from 2006 !!!!!!

U. S. Oil Discovery – Largest Reserve in the World

Stansberry Report Online – 4/20/2006

Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world.

It is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction.

In three and a half years of high oil prices none has been extracted.

With this motherload of oil why are we still fighting over off-shore drilling?

They reported this stunning news:

We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth.

Here are the official estimates:
8 times as much oil as Saudi Arabia
18 times as much oil as Iraq
21 times as much oil as Kuwait
22 times as much oil as Iran
500 times as much oil as Yemen
and it’s all right here in the Western United States !!!!!!

HOW can this BE? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this?
Because the environmentalists and others have blocked all efforts to help America become independent of foreign oil! Again, we are letting a small group of pe’ople dictate our lives and our economy. WHY?

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we’ve got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East, more than 2 TRILLION barrels untapped. That’s more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post.

Don’t think ‘OPEC’ will drop its price even with this find? Think again! It’s all about the competitive marketplace, it has to.

Think OPEC just might be funding the environmentalists?

Got your attention yet? Now, while you’re thinking about it, do this:

Pass this along. If you don’t take a little time to do this, then you should stifle yourself the next time

you complain about gas prices, by doing NOTHING, you forfeit your right to complain.

Now I just wonder what would happen in this country if every one of you sent this to every one you know?

THis is all mitt has to do in the debates.

rodguy911 on September 30, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Well, considering that the planned subject for the FIRST debate is ‘domestic policy’, and we know that Zero’s policy is full of freebies, and that Mitt’s is not, we already KNOW he’ll be cast as the most evil, dirty-water-loving, anti-everything-the-mooches want, boogie man ever to have walked the earth.
Frankly, I expect nothing else from the media.
In fact, my brain is already composing my own personal lib-media PRE-debate assessment to paste onto FB.
Not finished yet, but I do have a few days… LOL.

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM

having to see Michelle naked.

BettyRuth on September 30, 2012 at 6:15 PM

You should be BURNED like my brain!

astonerii on September 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Yes. Oliver North staged an internal coup and we ended up trying to sell arms to the Iranians in order to fund an illegal war.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Go get those eeeeevil conservatives, defeatist! Go get ‘em!!!

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Admittedly, it wasn’t until the second term that Reagan started losing it. Remember that trip down the California Coastal Highway in the first Mondale debate? Early warning sign.

If Romney can just make him nail-spitting mad. Just one time…

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Never happen. Slightly pissy, maybe — a state that Mitt inhabits on occasion, as well — but never visibly angry.

Aside from the fact that he’s not pre-disposed to it, Obama knows that black politicians are not allowed to be visibly angry. Otherwise, you get labeled, as his wife was.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM

H -

Sorry Del.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Only thing worse than a lame and tired cliche?

Being lame and tired enough to steal it.

urbane effetist on September 30, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Thanks for the Saul Alinsky 101 compliment!

Obama can just play to win on points

urbane effetist on September 30, 2012 at 6:07 PM

And thanks for admitting that your Democrat Media will rig the debates to make it appear to your Low IQ Voter Base that Romney “lost”.

A+

Del Dolemonte on September 30, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:16 PM

So, you’re implying that an alert and in-charge Reagan orchestrated Iran Contra? Or admitting that a tired and aging geezer just wasn’t paying attention?

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:19 PM

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Derrrr. Shoot, aim, ready!

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:19 PM

So, you’re implying that an alert and in-charge Reagan orchestrated Iran Contra? Or admitting that a tired and aging geezer just wasn’t paying attention?

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Have I told you lately that you’re stupid?

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:21 PM

If Romney can just make him nail-spitting mad. Just one time…

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:12 PM

I’d love to see that. Øbama will likely try to do that to Mitt, too. He’ll probably try to get under Mitt’s skin with a barrage of lies and half-truths. Alinsky type stuff.

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Oliver North staged an internal coup and we ended up trying to sell arms to the Iranians in order to fund an illegal war.

urbane effetist on September 30, 2012 at 6:09 PM

It must still eat you up inside after all these years that it was your own ACLU that got Ollie North off.

B+

Del Dolemonte on September 30, 2012 at 6:21 PM

rodguy911 on September 30, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Environazis ain’t gonna go away simply because a Republican wins.

Hell, Bush was an oilman and we couldn’t get it.

Benevolent dictatorship for a decade or so and rounding up dangerous liberals would be the only solution.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:21 PM

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Oooooo, lying liars do NOT like being called out in front of others !!
They CAN lose it, and big time.
He very well could lose it on camera, and anyone with eyes to see WILL see it !

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:23 PM


You see Ann Romney is worried about Mitts mental well being were he to win.

Crap on a cracker! Ann Romney really is worried about Romney’s mental well being. That’s precisely what she said. She has confidence in his leadership, but she’s worried about the “emotional part of it.”

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Of course the debates matter. A good performance from Mitt followed by one from Ryan next week and we will have some momentum.

Jack_Burton on September 30, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Obama’s going to look like the Al Sharpton that he is. I am going to thoroughly enjoy Wednesday night.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:24 PM

So, you’re implying that an alert and in-charge Reagan orchestrated Iran Contra? Or admitting that a tired and aging geezer just wasn’t paying attention?

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Yes, Reagan was a fool. Destroyed the country in unimaginable ways. Took Bill Clinton coming in and cleaning up that Reagan/Bush mess.

If only Carter had more time…

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:24 PM

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:24 PM

As would any loving spouse. It’s a horrendous burden to bear for any man. Or woman.

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:26 PM

If only Carter had more time…

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:24 PM

They really need a sarcasm font.

astonerii on September 30, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Here’s all mitt has to do

Yes, and he also needs to win Ohio. Which he isn’t: http://news.yahoo.com/goodbye–columbus–why-top-ohio-republicans-think-romney-has-lost-the-state.html

It will be just after the debates that we hear that the superpacs and major committees have decided to direct their funds away from Romney and toward Congressional and Senate races.

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:27 PM

The MSM reviews for the debates are probably already written.

TimBuk3 on September 30, 2012 at 6:27 PM

The MSM reviews for the debates are probably already written.

TimBuk3 on September 30, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Count on it.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Obama knows that black politicians are not allowed to be visibly angry. Otherwise, you get labeled, as his wife was.

urbane effetist on September 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Breathtaking.

Who made up these “rules” for black politicians?

People don’t call Michelle angry because she’s black. They call her angry because she exhibits her anger nearly every time she speaks, and even when she doesn’t. You can see the anger in her eyes.

Like when she said that for the first time in her life she was proud about being an American. 99% of the people I know were never raised to be ashamed of our country, which makes her the 1%. You must be so proud of that.

Please stop seeing the Race Card everywhere. Might make you less angry too!

Del Dolemonte on September 30, 2012 at 6:28 PM

As would any loving spouse.

Loving spouses like to talk to the media about the emotional instability of their partners?

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Crap on a cracker! Ann Romney really is worried about Romney’s mental well being. That’s precisely what she said. She has confidence in his leadership, but she’s worried about the “emotional part of it.”

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:24 PM

You make a really good point here. When Romney is tasked with saving America from socialism/communism and he clearly knows what is at stake, I imagine I’d be a bit emotional. Unlike the Al Sharpton lifelike robot that has been implementing our decline for the last 4 years.

I think Katie Couric and Toure’ should be the first to be eaten, live on O-TV.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Aside from the fact that he’s not pre-disposed to it, Obama knows that black politicians are not allowed to be visibly angry. Otherwise, you get labeled, as his wife was.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Remember, he’s half white, so maybe that side will get angry. I don’t really expect anger, I expect that snotty, shrill, stammering, giggling thing he does, right before he gives someone the finger, pretending to be scratching some zit or something.

Night Owl on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Are the debates going to matter??..Someone page Gov. Rick Perry ask him??..:)

Dire Straits on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

anybody ever overstudy for a test and do worse than u should have…i did in microeconomics and i got so tied up in the “micro” part.
i just don’t want Mitt to be so overprepared that he gets bound up in details. its got to flow and he needs to relax and smile with there u go again like Ronny did.

don’t forget to watch F&F coming up at 7 on Univision (channel 16 cable where I am)

ps… please everyone stay positive and ignore the cynics, particulary Pappy (who i don’t think is the old Pappy who wasn’t near as sarcastic). lib and gumballs and urban elite r trying to convince themselves the marxist is good for this country. he’s not and they are not. their comments deserve only a delete button.

gracie on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

So, you’re implying that an alert and in-charge Reagan orchestrated Iran Contra? Or admitting that a tired and aging geezer just wasn’t paying attention?

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Last I checked RR was dead (sadly) and jimma is senile. Now back to our scheduled program – your messiah sucks and will lose big in the debats without his trusty teleprompter.

VegasRick on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Obama knows that black politicians are not allowed to be visibly angry. Otherwise, you get labeled, as his wife was.

urbane effetist on September 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Nah. We just spit on them.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:30 PM

I believe that, in January 2009, there was a huge majority of people in the United States that wanted to be here, in September 2012, ready to vote Barack Obama in for a second term. That’s where the country was then. Now, however, I believe there is a majority of the population that doesn’t feel we can re-elect Barack Obama, but they have to know that Mitt Romney is up to the job. I don’t think it’s going to take much for the polls to change, and the debates could be just the ticket. The voters are going to listen to both of them answer the question. They know, basically how Obama’s going to answer the question because they’ve been listening to his rhetoric for 4 years so they’ll listen to Romney and if it’s plausible and different, his poll numbers will go up.

I don’t believe Barack Obama is capable of doing anything different than what he’s done already. I don’t believe his stock answers will change and he certainly won’t admit he did anything wrong, so this could be the week.

bflat879 on September 30, 2012 at 6:30 PM

It must still eat you up inside after all these years that it was your own ACLU that got Ollie North off.

B+

Del Dolemonte on September 30, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Does indeed hurt a bit. Though, they were right and Ollie’s strategy was brilliant.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Oooooo, lying liars do NOT like being called out in front of others !!
They CAN lose it, and big time.
He very well could lose it on camera, and anyone with eyes to see WILL see it !

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Not saying that it could never happen. Just saying, don’t bet on it.

Yes, Reagan was a fool. Destroyed the country in unimaginable ways. Took Bill Clinton coming in and cleaning up that Reagan/Bush mess.

If only Carter had more time…

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:24 PM

Didn’t say that at all. Merely that he was clearly losing it in the second term.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Loving spouses like to talk to the media about the emotional instability of their partners?

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

I want to know how America’s Lunch Lady feels about her spouse’s effeminate tendencies. What say you?

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Remember, he’s half white, so maybe that side will get angry. I don’t really expect anger, I expect that snotty, shrill, stammering, giggling thing he does…

Night Owl on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

In the Donald Duck voice. When he gets agitated, he goes into his Donald Duck voice.

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Didn’t say that at all. Merely that he was clearly losing it in the second term.

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Nah. He was pure evil.

Evil personified, if you will. His name was 666 or something, lest we forget that.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Are the debates going to matter??..Someone page Gov. Rick Perry ask him??..:)

Dire Straits on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Scott rasmussen says they don’t.

and I say the undecideds will break for Mitt ( because they always do 2:1 for the challenger) and he will win what he needs to be President.

gracie on September 30, 2012 at 6:32 PM


When Romney is tasked with saving America from socialism/communism …

Seriously? You do realize that this is the same Romney who engineered that massive expansion of state power over private economic activity called RomneyCare, a botch of policy functionally identical to ObamaCare, and that he is now backpedalling on whether or what parts of it he will rescind. He’s also backpedalling on the tax issue too according to thehill.com.

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Invest in paper towels. Obama is going to full metal meltdown live on television.

/No TOTUS? No POTUS.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:34 PM

I want to know how America’s Lunch Lady feels about her spouse’s effeminate tendencies. What say you?

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Reggie Love knows more about his sex life than moochelle.

VegasRick on September 30, 2012 at 6:34 PM


I want to know how America’s Lunch Lady feels about her spouse’s effeminate tendencies. What say you?

LGBYF or something.

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:35 PM

we’re looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion.

Obama can pi$$ that away in 3 years.

Basilsbest on September 30, 2012 at 6:35 PM

don’t forget to watch F&F coming up at 7 on Univision

gracie on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Yes! Thank you. I had forgotten.

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Seriously? You do realize that this is the same Romney who engineered that massive expansion of state power over private economic activity called RomneyCare, a botch of policy functionally identical to ObamaCare, and that he is now backpedalling on whether or what parts of it he will rescind. He’s also backpedalling on the tax issue too according to thehill.com.

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:33 PM

You’re fun.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:36 PM

this is the same Romney who engineered that massive expansion of state power over private economic activity called RomneyCare, a botch of policy functionally identical to ObamaCare, and that he is now backpedalling on whether or what parts of it he will rescind. He’s also backpedalling on the tax issue too according to thehill.com.

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Most likely.

But I can guarandamntee you one thing – if obama wins, it unequivocally is game over for the U.S. as you’ve known it.

Once obamacare is entrenched, there will be literally nothing they cannot control, Remember John Dingell’s and San Fran Nan’s words.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:36 PM


Invest in paper towels. Obama is going to full metal meltdown live on television.

Which is Romney’s only hope at this point. The swing states are swinging the other way, especially Ohio: http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/09/30/1-dispatch-poll-shows-obama-in-lead.html And people in Ohio are already voting.

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Maybe I should take a break from HA for a few weeks.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:38 PM

VegasRick on September 30, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Larry Sinclair.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:38 PM

It must still eat you up inside after all these years that it was your own ACLU that got Ollie North off.

B+

Del Dolemonte on September 30, 2012 at 6:21 PM

Does indeed hurt a bit.

urbane effetist on September 30, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Dwelling on something almost a quarter of a century after it happened isn’t healthy.

But it seems to be an exclusively Leftist trait, so I’m not going to worry about it.

Del Dolemonte on September 30, 2012 at 6:39 PM

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:37 PM

You’re fun. Like that Jim Messina guy that drew on his hands with a sharpie or something.

Key West Reader on September 30, 2012 at 6:40 PM

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:37 PM

no they are not. check rasmussen.

gracie on September 30, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Loving spouses like to talk to the media about the emotional instability of their partners?

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

She did no such thing as question her husband’s ‘emotional INstability’.
As any loving spouse would, she simply commented that she would be alert to the ‘emotional part’ of what this job would entail.
Methinks you wear glasses handed out by the left to see it as damning.
Sheesh.

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:41 PM

gracie on September 30, 2012 at 6:32 PM

+100..I’m with you!!..I hope you are right..:)

Dire Straits on September 30, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Maybe I should take a break from HA for a few weeks.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Your as angry as I was for the last 4 weeks? If So, probably good for your heart. But I actually like seeing your name around.

astonerii on September 30, 2012 at 6:41 PM

So, you’re implying that an alert and in-charge Reagan orchestrated Iran Contra? Or admitting that a tired and aging geezer just wasn’t paying attention?

urban elitist on September 30, 2012 at 6:19 PM

We’ve missed you on the Fast & Furious threads.

rogerb on September 30, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Methinks you wear glasses handed out by the left to see it as damning.
Sheesh.

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:41 PM

It’s not the glasses, it’s the person wearing the glasses.

AZfederalist on September 30, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Your as angry as I was for the last 4 weeks? If So, probably good for your heart. But I actually like seeing your name around.

astonerii on September 30, 2012 at 6:41 PM

No, not angry. Kinda getting worn out. It’s the trolls.

I say that, but I prolly ain’t goin’ nowheres.

But it has become an unhealthy addiction.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 6:44 PM


But I can guarandamntee you one thing – if obama wins, it unequivocally is game over for the U.S. as you’ve known it.

Wouldn’t it be great if we had a candidate who believed that? But we don’t. We have a candidate who is down by 4 points in Iowa according to the Des Moines Register and who wants to hew closer the sitting president’s line on health care to compensate for it: http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Daily-Reports/2012/September/29/politics-health-care-biden-romney.aspx

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:44 PM

The debates don’t matter to me – my mind is made up. I don’t know if I will watch them in entirety.

Philly on September 30, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Anyone can predict the future. Being right is a lot more difficult and few are any good at it at all.

VorDaj on September 30, 2012 at 6:46 PM

From Rasmussen Sept 30, 2012

Obama has a one- or two-point lead in each of the Key Three States in this year’s election, Ohio, Florida and Virginia. All three states remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. State polling shows Democrats are now expected to retain control of the Senate. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power projections show the Democrats likely to win or hold 48 seats, while the GOP can probably count on 45. That leaves seven toss-ups. Republicans would need to win six of the seven to win control (or five of the seven if Romney wins and Vice President

More voters trust Romney than Obama on the economy. The candidates are now even on national security, and the president has the edge on energy policy. It’s a toss-up on taxes and health care. There is, overall, little optimism. Just 43% believe a victory for Romney and the Republicans would lead to a stronger economy next year. Thirty-four percent (34%) believe that would happen with an Obama victory and Democratic control of Congress. Paul Ryan can cast a tie-breaking vote).

gracie on September 30, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Watching elitist spin for dear leader is hilarious.

wargamer6 on September 30, 2012 at 6:48 PM

I don’t believe Barack Obama is capable of doing anything different than what he’s done already. I don’t believe his stock answers will change and he certainly won’t admit he did anything wrong, so this could be the week.

bflat879 on September 30, 2012 at 6:30 PM

You will be praying by December that Obama had not changed.

Mitt however it does seem he is incapable of changing and runing his campaingn in a way that would make him President.

Mitt seems to be under the delusion that the Media is not his enemy that if he is nice to him and Obama they will at least give him some benefit of a doubt. He will not attack them and that is his only chance. If he goes into that debate under the asumption that he is debating Obama he has no chance of wining. He is debating the moderator/Obama team. He should tell her right up front. First biased asked. I am sorry but it is now abundently clear I am debating you and Obama. From now on I will answer questions of my own choosing and correct you and Obama. By the way how does it feel being part of the Obama team?

Steveangell on September 30, 2012 at 6:50 PM

don’t forget to watch F&F coming up at 7 on Univision

gracie on September 30, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Super. I have it on now. Univision East is channel 402 on DirecTV.

How many drinks do I need to understand Spanish?

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Paul Ryan can cast a tie-breaking vote).

gracie on September 30, 2012 at 6:48 PM

If Todd Akin wins that will not be necessary.

Still waiting for Romney/Ryan to admit they were wrong and endorse him.

Steveangell on September 30, 2012 at 6:53 PM

rogerb on September 30, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Hey, roger !
Dinna want you to miss this one …

dont worry, you will join me soon.

nathor on September 30, 2012 at 4:54 PM

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/09/30/polling-science/comment-page-1/#comment-6314703

LOL .. Thought of you immediately. ;-)

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:53 PM

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 6:52 PM

We have it set to record, here, but an hour behind, I guess.
Ya think there might be a separate thread ?
Or comment on the existing one ??
Hmmmm.
I’m worried it’ll be a nothingburger .. Idunno.

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:57 PM

casuist on September 30, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Do you know how to give credit to the commenter? That’s very rude.

Lanceman on September 30, 2012 at 7:00 PM

If you have not made up you mind how you will vote by now, you are brain dead.

Obama voters will come to the poles in busses with SEIU shirts on.

I plan to vote with a cup of tea in my hand.

It is time for a TEA PARTY.

groundhunter on September 30, 2012 at 7:01 PM

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Yeah, I was hoping for a separate thread too. But if not, maybe this one?

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 7:01 PM

and the president has the edge on energy policy.

Say what?! They trust the guy who shut down drilling in the gulf, is threatening fracking, has delayed the Keystone pipeline, has vowed to kill the coal industry, is forcing coal-fired power plants to close, and refuses to open up federal lands for further exploration? Who in the world is Rasmussen talking to? Do these idiots really think solar cells and windmills are gonna cut it?

It’s a toss-up on taxes and health care. There is, overall, little optimism. Just 43% believe a victory for Romney and the Republicans would lead to a stronger economy next year. Thirty-four percent (34%) believe that would happen with an Obama victory and Democratic control of Congress. Paul Ryan can cast a tie-breaking vote).

gracie on September 30, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Funny how they spin that number there. A full 9% higher confidence that a Romney win will lead to a stronger economy and that is “little optimism”. Not exactly a non-partisan paragraph there. Especially if you take the fact that 50% or so is baked into the numbers as the maximum either candidate could achieve because the dems wouldn’t say that about the republican and vice versa.

AZfederalist on September 30, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Why does Barky need any prep sessions, since I’m pretty sure his team already knows all of the questions and approved answers? Oh, right, the lack-of-TOTUS thing…

bofh on September 30, 2012 at 7:03 PM

pambi on September 30, 2012 at 6:57 PM

I read there would be English subtitles. But I’m not gettin’ ‘em.

I can understand only about half of what they’re saying in Spanish. Probably another drink or two and it’ll be easier.

petefrt on September 30, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Wall Street Insider says little Bammie will cheat, and cheated in 2008: Beware The First Presidential Debate – Obama Will Cheat

slickwillie2001 on September 30, 2012 at 7:08 PM

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