Over the cliff: Durable goods orders drop 13.2% in August; Update: Q2 GDP downgraded from 1.7% to 1.3%

posted at 8:39 am on September 27, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

A key measure of the economy, especially in manufacturing, just had the bottom fall out.  Orders for durable goods dropped 13.2% in August, the worst decrease in almost four years, and a large signal that the American economy is diving into a recession:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August decreased $30.1 billion or 13.2 percent to $198.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following three consecutive monthly increases, was the largest decrease since January 2009 and followed a 3.3 percent July increase. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 1.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 12.4 percent. Transportation equipment, down following four consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $27.8 billion or 34.9 percent to $51.9 billion.

The news was even worse for capital goods, indicating that businesses have stopped investing in themselves:

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in August decreased $18.5 billion or 24.3 percent to $57.7 billion. Shipments decreased $1.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $69.5 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $11.9 billion or 2.0 percent to $580.5 billion. Inventories increased $1.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $171.9 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in August decreased $4.1 billion or 40.1 percent to $6.1 billion. Shipments decreased $0.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $8.1 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $2.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $165.6 billion. Inventories increased $0.4 billion or 1.8 percent to $21.4 billion.

Unfilled orders — the “backlog” on which every manufacturer relies for continuity and security — also dropped by 1.7%, the largest drop since December 2009:

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in August, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $16.9 billion or 1.7 percent to $978.7 billion. This was the largest decrease since December 2009 and followed a 0.7 percent July increase. Transportation equipment, also down following two consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $12.0 billion or 2.1 percent to $568.6 billion.

Inventories, however, rose by 0.6%, which indicates that demand is perhaps even worse than this report would indicate.

Reuters points out that most of this fall came from transportation:

New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods in August fell by the most in 3-1/2 years, pointing to a sharp slowdown in factory activity even as a gauge of planned business spending rebounded. …

Economists polled by Reuters had expected orders for durable goods — items from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last at least three years — to fall 5 percent.

Last month, the drop in orders reflected weak aircraft and automobiles demand. Boeing received only one aircraft order in August, down from 260 in July, according to information posted on the plane maker’s website.

Transportation equipment tumbled 34.9 percent after racing ahead 13.1 percent in July. Excluding transportation, orders fell 1.6 percent after dropping 1.3 percent the prior month. Economists had expected this category to rise 0.3 percent after a previously reported 0.6 percent fall.

And while capital goods orders dropped by a huge margin, non-defense capital orders actually rose:

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 1.1 percent, halting two straight months of hefty declines. That was above economists’ expectations for 0.5 percent gain.

That makes this appear to be a “fiscal cliff” reaction, as defense contractors lose orders ahead of the sequestration cuts.  That may boost Republican efforts to find a solution to that part of the sequestration equation, and put pressure on the White House to fix the problem as a way to avoid these kinds of headlines before the election.

Speaking of which, the BEA also delivered its final word on Q2 growth, scaling down their last estimate of 1.7% to 1.3%:

Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2012 (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the “second” estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.7 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3).

Real final sales of domestic product rose 1.7%, which is at least a decent sign that demand was better than overall sales.  It’s still a stagnation figure, but the upshot is that inventories declined overall as sales outstripped production by a small amount.  Under normal circumstances, that would be a good indicator for better days, but the 13% tumble in durable goods shows that the economy appears headed in the opposite direction.

Update: While we’re on economic indicators, the weekly jobless claims report had a surprising decline in applications:

In the week ending September 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 359,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 385,000. The 4-week moving average was 374,000, a decrease of 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 378,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending September 15, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 15 was 3,271,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,275,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,295,500, a decrease of 15,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,310,500.

We’ll see if this means anything significant, but I doubt this outweighs the sudden drop in manufacturing activity as an indicator of what’s ahead.


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Are you one of those global one-world government believers? That imagine if only we had one government to apply socialism correctly to the whole planet, that then all the wealth would “even itself out”?
I have a cousin who goes on and on about that. How those in the West need to be beaten down, give up our homes and yearly trips to the dentist, and then finally the people in Kenya will be lifted out of poverty.

Nevermind that he’s nestled in his little academic enclave, supported by government grants, with no real work experience. You gotta love it.

CambellBrown on September 27, 2012 at 10:53 AM

So you first transplanted your cousin’s idea into my own and responded to him. And then you made a personal attack. I’m sorry, but if you can’t respond to my analysis then just say so.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Old/busted:
 

I didn’t say I had tenure, I just finished my doctorate last summer…
 
libfreeordie on June 21, 2012 at 11:40 AM

 
New hotness:
 

I think part of the problem is that people aren’t willing to try and do new things. They feel entitled to retire doing the same work they did in their 20s.
 
libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 10:20 AM

rogerb on September 27, 2012 at 10:55 AM

The recession never ended for most Americans and now we’re heading into an obama depression.

jqc1970 on September 27, 2012 at 10:57 AM

As for manufacturing employees creating the housing bubble, that’s so absurd considering manufacturing jobs have been on decline sinc e the 1970s, well before the most recent bubble.

sentinelrules on September 27, 2012 at 10:52 AM

You misunderstand me. I said the housing bubble supported a class of workers who would otherwise have been doing manufacturing work. So the declines in manufacturing in the 1990s didn’t hurt those workers as much. But no housing bubble and we have the current “mancession.”

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 10:57 AM

particularly IT service positions (I’m not sure why wildcat’s having such a tough time)
libfreeordie

IT is getting devastated. Anything that can be sent to India is going. We’ve lost all of our IT personnel and we now just call a hotline.

CambellBrown on September 27, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Sadly, this is what we’re up against….

Obama Voter Says Vote for Obama because he gives a free Phone

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=tpAOwJvTOio

sentinelrules on September 27, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Lower the corporate tax rate, you still have to compete with labor conditions overseas that Americans would never accept.

Did you know we have the highest corporate tax rate now? Lowering it would be quite substantial.

It’s not always about “labor conditions” – it’s about other things such as regulatory burden, energy costs (which liberals seem to get a boner over raising all the time), etc. I know you want to center on that to imagine kids working in coal mines, but that’s simply because you cannot accept a world where the government isn’t the primary actor.

Isn’t it funny how we never had problems getting people employed in various fields before the “state started controlling things” are you so aptly put it. ;)

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 10:59 AM

You misunderstand me. I said the housing bubble supported a class of workers who would otherwise have been doing manufacturing work. So the declines in manufacturing in the 1990s didn’t hurt those workers as much. But no housing bubble and we have the current “mancession.”

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 10:57 AM

How so if the housing bubble affected minorities at first, whom weren’t predominant in the manufacturing field?

sentinelrules on September 27, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I think part of the problem is that people aren’t willing to try and do new things. They feel entitled to retire doing the same work they did in their 20s.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Wow, you live in a bigger bubble than I thought. No one I know is in the same job/career/work they had in their twenties. Except for union workers or highly skilled people like doctors, dentists etc. Everyone else has had at least two major career shifts. Where did your analysis come from?

Mitsouko on September 27, 2012 at 11:02 AM

In the photo, is that a giant screw Obama is standing behind?

hawksruleva on September 27, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Manufacturing does not just support low-skilled laborers. (who were in the housing construction boom, but otherwise would have been working an assembly line right?)

Manufacturing supports:

IT, accountants, engineers, sales people, highly-skilled tool users, business leaders and “big picture” thinkers, hourly non-skilled labor, truckdrivers, shipping companies, recycling.

Just to name the ones who are dependent on us currently.

CambellBrown on September 27, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Because WE are the new minority. The God loving, family oriented, Americans that grew up knowing and loving this land of opportunity, took advantage of it without expecting a handout or blaming others for our failures, and have produced well enough so that others can have cell phones, big screen TVs, cable,XBOX and Play Station,ect, along with food stamps ,welfare, SSI, Medicaid and as many children out of wedlock as they could ever wish for.

WE, the ones who have made this country into the greatest nation in the history of this planet, will have to defer to the whims of the unwashed masses who just want free stuff.

We have been orginized against and brainwashed for the past 60 years. All the while we went about our daily lives of going to work, going to school, going to church, raising our children and trying to be productive members of society.

The left as infiltrated the schools, the media,religon and government to the point to where those not paying close enough attention have went along with the indoctrination. Once the left realized that violent revolution could not take hold, they realized soft revolution was the way. It has worked.

A big deal was made about Romney’s 47% comment, but he was accurate.They know they are close to having the numbers are on their side. If Barack Obama wins this will be the new normal they have dreamed of. And unlike the major metropolitan cities which drove it’s productive citizens out to the suburbs or country to find a better life for themselves and their families, we will have no place to flee to.

Our basic freedoms and liberties will continue to be attacked.

Dark days ahead if Obama gets re-elected.

Rockshine on September 27, 2012 at 11:06 AM

hawksruleva on September 27, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Why, yes, it is.

Actually the new and improved Obama BOHICA screw.

coldwarrior on September 27, 2012 at 11:07 AM

90% of the country will never know this because it won’t be reported.

It’s a weird rabbit hole we’ve gotten ourselves into, eh?

blue13326 on September 27, 2012 at 11:08 AM

This kind of information is just too difficult for our ‘low information’ voters to absorb. To them, Obama is some awesome eye-candy ’cause he appears on cool tv shows.

Sigh.

natasha333 on September 27, 2012 at 11:09 AM

The only alternative is keynsian infrastructure spending, and lord does this nation need some upgrades. But the GOP is categorically against employing people on that kind of work, even though it benefits the white males who are the core of their base. So we can’t hope for another housing bubble, its not gonna happen. We can’t bring back manufacturing without “anti-trade” measures, and the GOP refuses to do government spending on infrastructure. So what? How do you solve this labor problem? I’m genuinely curious.

I’d give you the “keynesian infrastructure spending” if it was supported by tax revenues from domestic oil and gas production on a scale that would make us mostly independent from foreign sources, and sent out to bid to private contractors not required to use unions.

But the Dems will never let that happen. And thus, we are where we are.

goflyers on September 27, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Rockshine – I fear you may be right but I pray that you are not.

natasha333 on September 27, 2012 at 11:10 AM

goflyers on September 27, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Why would you give him that?

It’s the liberals who have cut infrastructure to the bone so they can fund all their little giveaway programs. Then beg for tax increases to refund infrastructure; but then funnel that money away to another giveaway. Then beg for .. oh you know how it works.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Your exaggeration is really unproductive, but I always find it interesting that the people who claim to be the strongest advocates for “Western civilization” often make statements which discount, belittle and minimize the importance of art, music and beauty to the creation of Western civilization. Its an essential part of the architecture of our culture and society, imagine. Truly imagine what the West would look like if every single person only pursued “productive” labor at the expense of the creative.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Sigh….why FORCE the productive to subsidize this? Most people, especially rich Republicans, will give to the arts on their own.

goflyers on September 27, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I guess you’d expect this attitude from someone with a PhD in Post-Dada Lesbian Haiku. There’s a real wealth-creation path!

slickwillie2001 on September 27, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Wow, you live in a bigger bubble than I thought. No one I know is in the same job/career/work they had in their twenties. Except for union workers or highly skilled people like doctors, dentists etc. Everyone else has had at least two major career shifts. Where did your analysis come from?

Mitsouko on September 27, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Oh sorry. I thought in the wake of “the 47%” it was now cool to make sweeping generalizations about Americans, their motivations for doing x or y without knowing the specifics of their lives. My bad, that privilege is only awarded to elite Republicans talking about the poor, I won’t step out of line again sir.

Look, I don’t know *why* Americans aren’t pursuing the education that will help them qualify for jobs that are open, but they aren’t.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:20 AM

I’d give you the “keynesian infrastructure spending” if it was supported by tax revenues from domestic oil and gas production on a scale that would make us mostly independent from foreign sources, and sent out to bid to private contractors not required to use unions.

But the Dems will never let that happen. And thus, we are where we are.

goflyers on September 27, 2012 at 11:09 AM

I would too. Not because it would lower gas prices, but because it would mollify conservatives.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Just saw The View sequence with Hasselback questioning Obama about the economy; to say he was put off by the question is an understatement. His “cool” deflection and ignoring of the question tells you he is sensitive to the question and something Romney should hammer him on in the debate.

It makes me believe the “thin Skinned One” may break if Romney presses.

Tater Salad on September 27, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Sigh.

natasha333 on September 27, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Until people see the consequences of their choices, they won’t change.

And then, unfortunately, they will enjoy being poor because they get a free mcguffin.

So, think about the intent.

Liberals want people to be poor, so they can hand out free mcguffins. Conservatives want people to be productive, so they don’t need free mcguffins.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Look, I don’t know *why* Americans aren’t pursuing the education that will help them qualify for jobs that are open, but they aren’t.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Because government and universities have conspired to make college a means to keep you in debt, rather than lift you out of it.

Discuss.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Clearly goflyers and I should run the country.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Clearly goflyers and I should run the country.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:24 AM

The idea that politicians “run the country” is one of the main problems this country faces.

Discuss.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Because government and universities have conspired to make college a means to keep you in debt, rather than lift you out of it.

Discuss.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:23 AM

There are some serious problems with the cost of higher education. There’s also a serious problem with the fact that the U.S. subsidizes their college education the least in comparison to places like Canada, most of Western Europe etc. Again, conservatives are under the impression that higher pay attracts quality applicants, and yet they believe that college educators should be paid less than 50,000 a year to teach 5 courses and still maintain a high level of quality. its the most backward thinking….

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:29 AM

The idea that politicians “run the country” is one of the main problems this country faces.

Discuss.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Look dawling, this isn’t coffe talk and my name is not Linda Richman (or Susan) ok! :)

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:30 AM

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:29 AM

The reason why costs are so high at college is that too many people are getting aid and loans from government.

They are divorced from the cost (until it’s too late), which allows universities to just raise prices to whatever level they want.

I’ll leave it up to you to believe if it’s intentional or not.

If government funded oil changes the same way it does college loans, you’d never be able to get one for $14.95 somewhere. Disagree?

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:32 AM

government subsidizes only the poorest to go to college now. If you make too much money to qualify for government aid (which is most families) – you still don’t make near enough to buy a college education.

The student debt load is crushing younger people. I cannot afford to make a career switch, because that would entail taking on MASSIVE DEBTS to fund more schooling. Thank God I got through engineering school back when it was affordable! everyone going to school now is screwed.

I have 3 kids and I’m not promoting college to any of them, unless something changes or they have a burning desire to get a useful degree.

I’m buying a farm instead. When the SHTF people, and it’s going to soon i think, the only ones who will survive will be growing their own food, have a means to protect themselves, and have the skills necessary to provide clean water (and maybe build themselves a bike out of spare parts.)

CambellBrown on September 27, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Lib – where to start?

Companies aren’t hiring because the cost of employment is rising faster than the profts you can make from the adding of the employee. Obamacare has increased their cost to insure them, especially for the smaller employer. Cap N Trade policies invoked by the EPA are creating significant uncertainty on investment unless it is a sure thing. If the taxes on energy are fully realized we will see a reversal of the movement of manufacturing back to the US which is in its infant stages as the cost of doing business in China and even India are stripping the productivity gains those workforces can deliver – the US workforce is very productive. Obama is just making them more expensive – which hurts the return to using them. Tax policy uncertainty is really hitting the smaller business who is probably filing under individual tax rules – they won’t expand or hire because they don’t know what their tax expense will be – the hire only when it is a slam dunk. So what you have is inertia and 1.2% GDP growth and unemployment stuck bewteen 8.1 and 8.3% and underemployment stuck way behind that. It is why youth unemployment jumped at the last minimum wage hike and is still elevated.

The economy is acting much like the great depression era – treading water. God forbid we need a war to fix it.

As to education your comments are just ignorant and ill-informed. There are all sorts of stories out there – not just in conservative sites about thewaste of vocational training and the lack of an ever increasing percentage of kids going to college who get nothing much out of it except debt. The HS’s are pushing white collar and college to almost the complete exclusion of everything else. The belittling of non-college tracks is pretty well established. And so the craziness continues.

I know we disagree politically – but on the education piece you are just in denial or worse. Fully 30-40% of college students are wasting their time going to school – they will never make enough money to justify the cost, and they are not nearly academically challenged enough to be there. It is a huge misallocation of resources.

Zomcon JEM on September 27, 2012 at 11:38 AM

and yet they believe that college educators should be paid less than 50,000 a year to teach 5 courses and still maintain a high level of quality. its the most backward thinking….

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Also. When I went to college in the 90′s, it cost me like $1000/semester to take all my classes – or less. It depends on what you take, blah blah blah. I paid for it myself.

Now, let’s say that a semester at college costs $5,000 now (I don’t know), is the level of education 5x better than just 20 years ago? Has inflation gone up that much? Cuz nothing has gone up 5x in price in 20 years. Even gas has only gone up like 4x.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I should have said lack of vocational training – my apologies.

Zomcon JEM on September 27, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I’m genuinely curious.

If you are “genuinely” curious then an anonymous message board is not the place to get the answers you seek.

It takes -a lot- of time and effort to understand labor markets and basic economic principles. It’s mostly counter-intuitive.

Start here:

Basic Economics

Applied Economics

Economic Facts and Fallacies

How Capitalism Will Save Us

visions on September 27, 2012 at 11:40 AM

90% of the country will never know this because it won’t be reported.

It’s a weird rabbit hole we’ve gotten ourselves into, eh?

blue13326 on September 27, 2012 at 11:08 AM

I was just reading the LA Times website. Front page story on the “great” employment numbers. No mention at all of GDP.

Europe cracking apart. Easily propagandized, moronic leeches for voters in the US. Western civilization itself is going off a cliff.

Django on September 27, 2012 at 11:45 AM

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 11:20 AM

First of, not a sir. Secondly, thank you for admitting you don’t have a clue. You are a bit of a know-it all and it gets you into trouble sometimes. It is ok not having all the answers.

Mitsouko on September 27, 2012 at 11:46 AM

my local COMMUNITY COLLEGE now charges over $5000/semester.

The local big name university is far north of that.

Compared to when I graduated (2002), it was 3k per year.

It’s not the people’s fault that the universities suck up all that money and pour it into bigger buildings, sports facilities, and administrators pockets. It is the government’s fault.

CambellBrown on September 27, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Furthermore, I postulate that the goal is to keep the economy on the edge via policy, so that people get used to looking to the government for the “answer”. And that answer is always a loss of economic and personal freedom.

Then the goal posts get moved when “fix” doesn’t fix anything and the next answer is the same as the first.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Libfree, I also wanted to add that your question about why Americans are not training for available jobs is a good one.

I think that Mike Rowe (Dirty Jobs) is helping Romney out on that one.
It seems that Obama wasn’t interested in what Mike had to say.

Mitsouko on September 27, 2012 at 11:49 AM

It’s not the people’s fault that the universities suck up all that money and pour it into bigger buildings, sports facilities, and administrators pockets. It is the government’s fault.

CambellBrown on September 27, 2012 at 11:47 AM

It’s curious that lib’s first instinct was to “blame the people” for not getting the education they need; and not the state for making it near unobtainable. There’s a lot to be learned from that.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Europe cracking apart. Easily propagandized, moronic leeches for voters in the US. Western civilization itself is going off a cliff.

Django on September 27, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Yup. and it’s not because capitalism sucks. Otherwise Europe would be in better shape than we are.

Honestly at this point I don’t see a lot of hope, no matter who is elected. I think we are going off the cliff much faster under Obama though.

gird your loins, you proletariat!

CambellBrown on September 27, 2012 at 11:51 AM

And, yet, the stock market is solidly up today even with the crappy news.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 12:23 PM

It’s not the people’s fault that the universities suck up all that money and pour it into bigger buildings, sports facilities, and administrators pockets. It is the government’s fault.

CambellBrown on September 27, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Actually its administrators. This is the problem. University administration keeps expanding AND THERE SEEMS TO BE NO REASON for it. They are trying to blame faculty, but its not us. At some points colleges and universities decided that they needed to offer students super modern facilities, that stadium needed to rival professional sports teams, that gyms needed to be better than the world’s greatest Golds gym, that there needed to be a computer IN EVERY SINGLE ROOM, etc. etc. etc. None of these things improve education, and indeed, faculty have had to adjust what we do in order to make use of the crap the University decides it wants to spend on. I can not tell you how maddening it is. If you are a truly talented educator, i.e. you have the ability to craft a compelling class based on your wit, reason and creativity you are forced to bundle that into a stupid power point that the students just want to download and avoid actually engaging. The entire model has become *a mess* But, conservatives blame faculty. Or they blame particular disciplines. Let me tell you, the women’s studies professor pulling in 55k a year is *not* the problem.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 12:27 PM

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 11:49 AM

But a month ago in a headline education meme he was blaming “White and Gender Privilege” as to why minority students don’t get an education worth squat.

Livefreeordie: I worked 5-6 classes a day (30 hours per week in the class itself and you are whining about 15 hours per week) for a quarter of a century as a High School teacher teaching the kids you bemoan and maintained a high quality in my classes. Why can’t you do the same? I helped educate low socio-economic black and brown students so that they qualified to places like Harvard, Brown, Yale, Johns Hopkins, Stanford, Naval Academy, Air Force Academy, US Military Academy, UC Berkley, UCLA, MIT, Cal Tech, UCSD and Harvey Mudd plus 100′s of others to local state colleges. While all you do is bit*h, moan and groan about education while keeping your hands clean. Get off you sorry gluts and go teach in these kinds of districts and help these students instead of at that college you’re hiding in.

chemman on September 27, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Let me tell you, the women’s studies professor pulling in 55k a year is *not* the problem.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 12:27 PM

So what you are saying is that the people at the top are the problem. They invest money in things that are showy and cool, but in no improve on the quality of life for anyone else but themselves.

That seems to be the same problem that conservatives notice as well. ;)

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 12:34 PM

We’ll see if this means anything significant, but I doubt this outweighs the sudden drop in manufacturing activity as an indicator of what’s ahead.

What it means is Obama is leaning harder on the BLS to ‘fix’ the unemployment numbers.

AUINSC on September 27, 2012 at 12:37 PM

Livefreeordie: I worked 5-6 classes a day (30 hours per week in the class itself and you are whining about 15 hours per week) for a quarter of a century as a High School teacher teaching the kids you bemoan and maintained a high quality in my classes. Why can’t you do the same?

You generated all of the content for your classes? You wrote a 50-90 -2.5 hour lectures for each session? You assigned multiple essay assignments with the goal of teaching advanced research, processing and writing skills, and then graded them all? You avoided multiple choice or fill in the blank evaluations? You researched and wrote independent scholarship in the forms of articles and book manuscripts as a requirement to earn tenure? You mentored undergraduates and graduate students? You sat on masters and dissertation committees? You planned conferences and symposium? You showed up at the beck and call of undergraduate students who needed a speaker for this or that event? Youtaught 600 students in a single course and managed the labor of the teaching assistants who ran the discussion sections and graded? I guess high school and collegiate education is the same thing!

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:07 PM

So what you are saying is that the people at the top are the problem. They invest money in things that are showy and cool, but in no improve on the quality of life for anyone else but themselves.

That seems to be the same problem that conservatives notice as well. ;)

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Oh I join in with conservatives on their critique of beauracracy, there’s no question about that.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:08 PM

That’s 50 minute-90minutes or 2.5 hour lecture////

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:09 PM

“They see it and feel it every single day.”

So if they see it and feel it, why is Obama pulling away in the election?

And why is Consumer Confidence skyrocketing?

daveyandgoliath on September 27, 2012 at 10:13 AM

1. The only “polls” showing O’bamna “pulling away” are those done by his campaign donors.

2. One “poll” does not an economy make. While the Conference Board report out this week shows that the “skyrocketing” you oddly refer to is simply a modest uptick to what consumer confidence was in February of this year. But that same “poll” also says that CEO confidence in the economy plunged 16% over the past month.

Meantime, the latest (yesterday) Bloomberg “poll” shows that those who say the country is headed in the wrong direction is at 60%. That’s the same percentage as in December of 2009.

I assume you’re desperately basing your assumptions on the one outlier “poll”, which was done by, of course, al-AP. As we’ve proven may times before here on HA, al-AP “polls” are worthless; in May of 2011 after bin Laden was killed, AP had to sample almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans in order to give O’bamna a 5-6% jump in his “job approval.

Goebbels would be proud of them, and of you.

F-

Del Dolemonte on September 27, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Apparantly I’m supposed to be more angry about what Mitt Romney does with his money that what Obama does with mine.

-author unknown

JetBlast on September 27, 2012 at 1:17 PM

This isn’t good . . . .

http://www.washingtonpost.com

daveyandgoliath on September 27, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Thanks for admitting that the Washington Compost is Pure Manure, but we knew that already.

F+

Del Dolemonte on September 27, 2012 at 1:18 PM

“revised downward”

The two words that sum up this presidency perfectly.

Scrappy on September 27, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Oh I join in with conservatives on their critique of beauracracy, there’s no question about that.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:08 PM

No one who supports Obamacare can say this with a straight face.

Scrappy on September 27, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Let me tell you, the women’s studies professor pulling in 55k a year is *not* the problem.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Professor Elizabeth Warren is paid $350,000 a year by Harvard to teach exactly 1 class. Is she the problem?

Or how about Ward Churchill? He made over $110K a year.

Professor Paulie Krugman also makes 6 figures.

And in what world do professors only make $55,000 a year? The US average is almost twice that.

Del Dolemonte on September 27, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Professor Elizabeth Warren is paid $350,000 a year by Harvard to teach exactly 1 class. Is she the problem?

Yes…but not for the reasons you think.

Or how about Ward Churchill? He made over $110K a year.
Professor Paulie Krugman also makes 6 figures.

Yeah I mean, Paul Krugman is a national thought leader in economics….he’s probably worth that much. Your disagreement with him doesn’t impugn the quality of his scholarship. And Ward Churchill was a full professor at one of the best schools in the nation. Again, whatever you think of his politics, becoming a full professor requires more work than you could ever really understand. But faculty pay, as I said, does not drive college tuition costs. How do we know? Because faculty pay has remained stagnant, or experienced bare minimum increases over the past 30 years. The two are completley unrelated.

And in what world do professors only make $55,000 a year? The US average is almost twice that.

Del Dolemonte on September 27, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Hahahahahahaha oh god, *wipes tears* oh you’re good. That’s a good one. You do realize that the “average” includes the sciences (which pay tons more) and also medical school faculty right? It also includes the salaries of every major sports coach because they are technically faculty. Oh god…you’re hilarious, “where do professors make 55k a year?” That’s rich…

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:40 PM

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/this_is_sort_of_a_big_deal.php

Del?

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Pretty depressing that that is considered great news. Now reconcile it with the workforce collapse and you get a good idea how bad off we are.

And it looks like we’re due for another recession.

Chuck Schick on September 27, 2012 at 1:41 PM

I’d give you the “keynesian infrastructure spending” if it was supported by tax revenues from domestic oil and gas production on a scale that would make us mostly independent from foreign sources, and sent out to bid to private contractors not required to use unions.

But the Dems will never let that happen. And thus, we are where we are.

goflyers on September 27, 2012 at 11:09 AM

“keynesian infrastructure spending” is “commie code” for “Union Payback”. The unholy alliance between the “union puppet marxist politicians” and the union goons who pull their strings to constantly ripoff taxpayers at the so-called “bargaining table” (how can it be “bargaining” when the guy representing the taxpayer is beholden to the unions he is allegedly “bargaining” with).
This whole sham has been going on for centuries and will continue as long as the marxists and the unions are allowed by the corrupt politicians to pillage taxpayers for ridiculous benefits that can never be paid to them. This “infrastructure spending (borrowing from China” BS is a scam, just like the alleged “Auto-Industry” bailout “SAVED” the Auto-Industry. Ask the hundreds of GM car dealers whose dealerships were “taken away” by Barkey and Co. and the thousands of employees that are without jobs now because of it. The thousands of employees at Delco and dozens of other GM vendors out of work and stockholders (yes, the little old ladies who’s stocks are now worth nothing). Barkey and Co. didn’t “save the Auto-Industry”, they “saved” the corrupt UAW, their union-goon buddies/puppet-masters.

And they will have to “save” them again with YOUR MONEY soon as the broken model that bankrupted them in the first place hasn’t changed…The UAW ran GM into the ground, and they will do it again in about 2 years, all while Barkey and Co. smile…

Strike Hornet on September 27, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Let me tell you, the women’s studies professor pulling in 55k a year is *not* the problem.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Actually they are the problem, if we are sticking with your premise.

What f-ing “career” does one make out of intensive “women’s studies???” and wtf does anyone learn???

Answer: An subsidized faculty opinion that makes you $0.

Odie1941 on September 27, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Let my people go.

J.E. Dyer on September 27, 2012 at 2:54 PM

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/this_is_sort_of_a_big_deal.php

Del?

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Prof. L, please refer to the most recent BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) Benchmark Announcement, dated Feb. 3, 2012, for calibration of your response to the news.

It states, “Over the past decade, absolute benchmark revisions have averaged 0.3 percent, with a range from 0.1 percent to 0.7 percent. ”

This latest announcement, dated Sept. 27, 2012, of a preliminary estimate of the adjustment to be made in February next year, is exactly average, 0.3%.

The situation has not changed a bit. Mr. Marshall of TPM makes much ado about nothing.

dave80 on September 27, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Oh I join in with conservatives on their critique of beauracracy, there’s no question about that.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:08 PM

But yet you cheer whenever government puts its grubby hands into some sector of the economy.

lorien1973 on September 27, 2012 at 3:20 PM

And, yet, the stock market is solidly up today even with the crappy news.

gumbyandpokey on September 27, 2012 at 12:23 PM

The stock market can sometimes move up on disappointing economic news because weak economic growth means the Fed is likely to keep interest rates low and that makes stocks relatively more attractive than bonds or cash.

Ted Torgerson on September 27, 2012 at 5:19 PM

IT is getting devastated. Anything that can be sent to India is going. We’ve lost all of our IT personnel and we now just call a hotline.

CambellBrown on September 27, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I can attest to this, same thing where I work.

ShadowsPawn on September 27, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Oh I join in with conservatives on their critique of beauracracy, there’s no question about that.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Yet you remain a liberal. Cognitive dissonance?

ShadowsPawn on September 27, 2012 at 5:25 PM

THE DROUGHT IS SLOWING THE ECONOMY…according to CBS Evening News with Scott Pelly (oh and the Fiscal Cliff)

catquilt on September 27, 2012 at 6:34 PM

I love command control economies. I’ll vote Democrat till the govt caused famine comes. yay progressives!

tom daschle concerned on September 27, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Yet you remain a liberal. Cognitive dissonance?

ShadowsPawn on September 27, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Ask yourself this: how much beauracracy have conservatives managed to dismantle in the last 12 years?

On this issue, is it truly cognitive dissonance?

MelonCollie on September 27, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Atlas is shrugging.

Doug Piranha on September 27, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Ask yourself this: how much beauracracy have conservatives managed to dismantle in the last 12 years?

On this issue, is it truly cognitive dissonance?

MelonCollie on September 27, 2012 at 8:19 PM

I’m not sure where you’re going with this? Yes, Repub’s have disappointed most conservatives in the recent past.

That does not mean I vote democrat now. That means I fight to take my party back to it’s roots. i.e. Tea Party.

ccrosby on September 27, 2012 at 10:53 PM

If a lot of layoffs are coming anyway I sure hope they all happen before Election Day.

sherrimae on September 28, 2012 at 12:50 AM

Oh I join in with conservatives on their critique of beauracracy, there’s no question about that.

libfreeordie on September 27, 2012 at 1:08 PM

What? This is like asking a dog to stop sniffing a$$e$.
The only ‘critique’ you ever have of BUREAUCRACY is that it isn’t enough to accomplish your socialist ambitions.
Obama & the Democrats, every one of them, as well as some conservatives, are all destructive bureaucrats who repeatedly rape this country & her citizens.
And you are one of those people who help usher the people in who rape the most.

Badger40 on September 28, 2012 at 8:28 AM

Atlas is shrugging.

Doug Piranha on September 27, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Speaking of that. I watched in on NetFlix the other day.
Have never read the book.
But I thought it was very good.
And I was shocked by how realistic things were.
I could totally see all of that happening.
And am seeing it.

Badger40 on September 28, 2012 at 8:30 AM

Engineer friend in Silicon Valley said their company, which manufactures in the US sophisticated measuring equipment to use in manufacturing here and abroad, especially Asia, was told their phone service workers have not had a single phone order for three months.

This election is a noose on the economy

No one will move a dollar they do not have to move until they are certain obama is not re elected. If he is re elected, all bets are off, tax and regulation go through the roof, and corporate reserves will be needed to survive. This is not golden parachute talk. There is simply no point in spending or investment if Obama is going to tank business anyway. Hiring is out the question. Workers have to be dumped before the new year, assuming not only Obamacare burdens, but the blast of federal regulation controlling employment, sure to come, Constitutional or not

If Romney is elected, there is going to be some euphoria followed by a lag, because it is going to be a herculean task to undo what Obama has already installed. This includes the huge pack of new federal employees, most way past 90 days service, enough regulations to unravel to fill a pyramid

The Post Office is broke,while Obama hires and hires to stack the fed rosters for the election. If postal workers are scared, that plays into his book

More and more I think Romney is a great choice, because he is a determined ant who will plug away where others would quit

I believe Romney will win but there is no point risking the money until the game is called

entagor on September 28, 2012 at 5:25 PM

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